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RECOMMENDATION; Forward the proposed comprehensive plan text amendment to the City Council with a recommendation for approval. Page 2 of 2 AT~`ACHMENT " City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan ~~enlent ~ Population & Demographics January 22, 2008 City of Central Point -Comprehensive Plan Element 1: Population and Demographics Table of Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................1 2. Population Growth Forecast ......................................................................................................... l 3. Population Growth Characteristics ..............................................................................................3 3.1 Growth Rate ............................................................................................................................ 3 3.2 Percentage Share of the County's Population .....................................................................3 3.3 Source of Growth .................................................................................................................... 3 4. Population Age Characteristics ....................................................................................................3 5. Household Characteristics .............................................................................................................4 5.1 Average Household Size ......................................................................................................... 5 S.2 Household Type .......................................................................................................................5 5.2.1 Family Households ..................................................................................................5 5.2.2 Non-Family Households ......................................................................................... 6 6. Population Goals & Policies ...........................................................................................................6 City of Centrai Point Comprehensive Piau, 2008-2030 ELEMENT 1-POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS 1l. ~atraduction Central Point was founded in 1889 and by 1900 had a population of 322. With the exception of the decade between 1910 and 1920 the City of Central Point has continued to steadily grow (Table 1), and today is the third largest city in 3ackson County. Over the course of the next twenty years, the City's population is expected to continue to grow, requiring additional land for housing, recreation, employment, and supporting infrastructure. In an effort to facilitate the City's planning process, it is the purpose of this Population Element to formally acknowledge a projected rate of population growth to the year 2030 and to identify the general population and household characteristics associated with the City's population. It is important to understand that the population projections set forth in this Population Element are estimates. These estimates are based on the best available information. The information contained in this Population Element will be used as the basis for maintaining,and updating of the City's comprehensive plan in accordance with ORS 197.712 (urban growth boundaries) and ORS 197.295 - 197.295 (housing). The information presented in this Population Element'is either historic data from the U.S. Census or population forecasts from the Jackson County Comprehensive Plan, 2007 Population Element. Most of the information is to be used simply to describe the population's general characterisfi~cs, while other information is intended to be used in the determination of the amount of land and types of land uses needed to accommodate the projected population growth. It is tie intent of the City to maintain the population forecasts based on the 2010 U.S. Census anal Portland State University Population Research Center population estimates. Throughout this Populatiarr:E7ement reference will be made to Acknowledged Inputs. Acknowledged Inputs represent data inputs to be-`used by the City in the maintenance and updating of such elements of the Comprehensive Plan that rely on population data to deternline Ianil use needs to the year 2030. Table 9. Population and Growfh:19011- ZUtI~ Z7.S. Census, 2Q(IS lE'SU Estimate City of Central Point, Jackson Couaty, attd State atOregon Year City of Centre{ Point Po elation % Increase Jackson County Po elation °/a Increase State of Oregon Po elation % Increase 1400 322 13,698 413,536 1910 761 136.34% 25,756 88.03% 672,765 52.69% 1920 5$2 -23.52% 20,405 -24.78% 783,389 i6.44% 1930 821 4t.07% 32,918 61.32% 953,786 21.75% 1940 406 10.35°/a 36,213 10.01% 1,089,6$4 14.25% 1950 1,667 84.fl0°/a 58,510 61.57% 1,521,141 39.59% 1960 2,289 3.7.39% 73,962 26.41% 1,768,687 16.27% 1970 4,004 74;92% 94,533 27.81% 2,091,385 18.25% 1980 6,357 "5$.77% 132,456 40.12% 2,533,156 25.90% 1990 7,509 18.12% 146,389 10,52% 2,847,000 8.12% 2400 12,493 66.37% 181,273 23.83% 3,421,399 20.18% 2005* 15,640 25.19% 194,515 7.31% '~~ 3,631,44fl 6.14% Source U.S. Crnsus and Ponlead State Univefsity Estimate, 2005' 2. Population Growth Forecast On February 21, 2007 by Ordinance No. 2007-3, the County adopted an update to their Comprehensive ~ U.S. Census Bureau Element 1 _ Population and Demographics (February 27, 2008) Page 1 City of Central Paint Comprehensive Plao, 2008-2(!30 Plan, 2007 Population Element. This action by the County was undertaken in accordance with State lawn which requires that counties maintain and periodically update population forecasts for communities within their jurisdiction. The County's updated Population Element included individual annual population forecasts far each city within the County to the year 2040. The population forecasts were prepared in coordination with each municipality and in accordance with State law. The methodology used in preparing the forecasts is presented in the County's Population Element, which is incorporated herein by reference (Appendix A). The population forecast for the City of Central Point is presented in Table 2. The data in Table 2 is based on the Jackson County Comprehensive Plan, 2007 Population Element, and illustrates the projected population growth of the City to the year 2040. Although population has been projected to 2040 in Table 2, for purposes of this Poptrl$tion Element, the 2030 population forecast is the basis for the City's land use planning as presented in the City afCentral Point Comprehensive Plan, 2008. As illustrated in Table 2, b~ the year 2030 tl~e:City's population is forecast to increase by 10,240. it is expected that by the year 2022 the City of Central Point's population will exceed that of the City of Ashland, malting Central Point the second largest city in the County3. Acknowledged Input 1- Pop;rulation Forecast: The population data presented in Table 2 is acknowledged as the projected population to be used in Table 2. Population forecast City of Cen#ral Point and Jac kson County, 2005-2040 City of Central Year .lackson County Point % of County 2045 194,S1S 15,640 8.04% 2006 197,963 15,896 8.03°/a 2007 202,002 16,358 8.10% 2008 206,124 16,793 8.15°/fl 2009 210,329 17,239 8.20% 2011 21.7;626 18,050 8.29% 2012 220,672 18,411 8.34% 2013 223,762 18,778 8.39% 2014 226,894 19,152 8.44% 2016 233,257 19,918 8.54% 2017 236,387 2U,3fl1 8.59% 201$ 239;559 20,1691 $.64% 2019 242,773 21,087 $.69% 201 249,049 21,$77 8.78% 2022 252,1135 22,264 8.83% X023 255,197 22,667 8.88% 2024 ~b8,328 23,072 8.43% 2026 264,419 ~ 23,875 9.03% 2027 267,374 24,364 9.11% 2028 270,361 24,861 9.20% 2029 273,382 25,367 9.28% f 2031 279,318 ~ 26,382 9.45% 2032 282,230 26,892 9.53% 2033 285,173 27,410 9.61 2034 288,146 27,935 9.69% 2036 294,142 29,006 9.86% 2037 247,165 29,552 9.94% 2038 300,219 30,105 10.03% 2039 303,304 30,667 10.11% maintaining and updating the City s Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the data presented in Table 2 as it relates to the City of Central Point through data provided by Portland State University and the U.S. Census Bureau. x Oregon Revised Statute (ORS) 195.036 3 Population Element, Jackson County Compreltensi~e Plan, Table 7. Element 1 -Population and 1]e~nagraphics {February 27, 2008) Page 2 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan, 2€108-2030 3. Population Growth Characteristics Tn addition to the projected population growth, the following represents an overview of the information presented in the Jackson County Camprehertsive Plan, Population Element. Figure 1. City of Central Poirot Historic & Forecast Population P 35,000 Q 30,000 p 25,000 u ~ 20,000 15,000 ~ 10,000 © 5,000 tl +3 L , G ~ ! lssrc~:~~st lF(1 ulatican ;-;b1~t 12,493 _ 4,004 7,509 j322 761 582 821 406 ~ 6,357 v DD ,~O ,yD ,~D ~O ~O ~O ~D .~O ~O b0 ,~O ~O „~O ~b ~~ ~~ ti~ ~~ ~~ tiq 1~ 1g ti~ ti~ tib tib ryb tib tiD Census Year 3.1. Growth Rate: As illustrated in Figure 1, since 19$0, the population of the Jackson County has grown faster than the state. During this carne period, the-City of Central Point has exceeded the rate of growth of the County acid `has been one of the fastest growing cities within the County, with an average annual growth rate of 3:67%~. By the year .2030, it is expected that the City wil l continue to grow but at a slower average annual rate of approximately 2.6%. During the same period, the County is expected to grow at.un average annual rate of 1.68%. 3.2. Percentage Share of the County Population: In 1950, Central Point's population accounted for 2.8% of the County's population. In 2005, the City made up approximately 8% of the County population. Over the course of the next 35 years, this rate is expected to continue to increase, with a 2040 population share of approximately 10%. 3.3. Source of Growth: There are two basic sources to population growth: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration {in-migration minus out-migration). Growth occurring as a result of natural increase is typically a small percentage of a community's population growth. Most ncireases in population are a result of net migration. Based on the 2000 U.S. Census, the predominant source of growth for Jackson County was the result of net migration with over 80% of the population growth resulting from net migrations. 4. Populafion Age Characteristics Since the 1990 Census, the age characteristics of the County population have remained relatively constant. In 2000, the single largest age cohort was the 25 ~ 44 age cohort, which accounted for a laclcson County Population Element, Table 5 s U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Element 1 -Population and DerrEOgraphies {February 27, 2408) Page 3 City of Central Poipt Comprehensive FIAn, 2008-2030 approximately 25% of the total population followed very closely by the 45 - 64 age cohort (Baby Boomers). Figure 2 illustrates the shift in the 25 - 44 age cohort between l 490 and 2000. Unlike the County, Central Point's 45 - 64 age cohort only experienced a small gain in percentage of total population. Central Point's Under 5 age cohort did experience an increase in total population when compared to the County's Under 5 age cohort. Figure 3 illustrates the change in age cohorts between 1940 and 2000. Table 3. Jackson County Population by A}~e Cohort, 199©& 2000 Age Grou 1990 Po ulation % Change ~ 2000 Po ulation % Change Under 5 9,75$ 6.67% 10,880 6.00% 5 - 17 26,947 18.41% 33,3$0 18.41% 18 - 24 12,375 8,45% 15,730 8.68% 25 - 44 43,897 29:9.9% 46,260 25.52% 45 - 64 29,700 :20.29% ~ 46,028 25.39% 65 and over 23,712 16.20% 28,991 15.99% Total 146,3$9 100.00% 1$1,269 100.40% Table 4. City of Central Paint Population by Age Ca~hort,1990 & 20(}0 e Grou .1990 Po elation % Chan a 2000 Po elation % Chan e Under 5 519 6:91% 976 7.81% 5 - 17 1,fi23 21.619b ~ z,59fi 20.78% 18 - 24 589 7.&E% 978 7.83% 25 - 44 2;289 30:496 3,651 29.22% 45 - 64 1,429 19.03% 2,521 20.18% 65 and over l;fl6Q 14.12% 1,771 14.18% Total 7,509 7,00.0096 ~; 12,493 100.0096 S. Household Charscteirlstics A by-product ofpopulation growth is the formation ofhouseholds. Trends in household formation :are an important consideration when discussing residential land needs necessary to accommodate forecasted population growth. Since the early 190ps, household characteristics have been gradually changing. For purposes of land use planning, it is important to understand the trends associated with household formation. For purposes of this Population Element, there are two characteristics worth noting: Average household size and household type. Rigure 2. Jackson County Population by Age Col>ort,1990 & 2400 P 50,000 0 45,000 P 40,000 u 35,000 1 30,000 a 25,000 ~ 20,000 15,000 ~ 10,000 5,000 C s20 0 i ~ O ~ ~ ~ UnderS 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65and over Age C©hort Element 1 - Population and Demographics (February 27, 200$) Page 4 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan, 2fl08-IO34 5.1, Average Household Size Since the 1970 Census, and before, the average household sire has been gradually declining. Far the City of Central Point, the average household size has dropped from 3.46 in 1970 to 2.69 in 2000. It is expected that during the term of the planning period {2030} that the average household size will continue to decrease but at a decreasing rate. Figure 3. City of Central PaintPopulation by Age Coltort,1990 & 2000 ~ a,aao ° 3,500 P 3,000 2,500 a 2,000 t 1,500 i 1,000 ° 500 Q Census2000 `. `. i ~~ ~ ~`.~ `.~ ~ `i ~ ~ i ~i UnderS 5-17 18-24 25-44 QS-64 65and over Age Cohort Acknowledged Input 2 -Average Household Sizes For purposes of calculating household formation, the City will use an average household size of 2. i59. This figure will be the basis for determining the number of households expected to be formed throughout the planning period. Il shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the -average household size through data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. 5.2. Household Type As previously noted, households are categorized as either family or non-family households, Past trends in the distribution of households by average,size and type is worth noting, particularly as it relates to the demand far housing, residential Iand needs, and infrastructure necessary to support residential growth. Over the -course of the past 40 years, :average household size has been declining (Figure 4). In addition to the decline in average household size,. the distribution of households by type has been gradually shifting to non-family households. Whether the average household size or tnix of household types changes, there will be consequences on the demand for housing. H 3.5 e g l d 2.5 z 2 I~igttre4. Histor~calAverageHouselhold Size for Jackson County and Central Foint 1950 - 20ElQ,Projected U.S. to 2010 Source; U.S. C.~asas CensusYear 5.2.1. Family Households: Family households are comprised of two or more people who are related by marriage, birth, or adoption. Most family households are most commonly represented by married-couples. Family households have and continue to dominate household types. However, although the formation of family households continues to increase, it is doing so at a decreasing rate. In 1990, family households in Central Point accounted for 77% of all households. By the 2000 Census, family households represented 75% of total households. Element l -Population and Demographics (February 27, 2008} Page 5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan, 2flOS-2030 Based on the 2000 Census, the average number of persons per family household in Central Point was 3A6. In 1940, the average number of parsons per family household was 3.16. Figure 4 illustrates the history of average family household size in the U.S. and Central Point. Acknowledged Input 3 -Family Households For purposes of calculating household formation, the City will use 7S% as the percentage of households that are family households. This figure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the percentage of family households through data provided by the U.S Census Bureau. Acknowledged Input 4 -Average Family Households ,Size. For purposes of calculating household formation, the City will use 3.06 as the average household size for family households. This figure shall be used in maintaining rsna' updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the average family household size through data provided by the U. S. Census Bureau. 5.2.2. Non-Family Households: Non-family households are comprised of single persons, or two or more people who are not related. In 1930, non-family households represented 23% of all households within the City. By 2000 non-family households represented 25% of all households. As the City's population grows alder, the number of non-family households can be expected to increase. Based on the 1990 Census, the average number of pens per non-family households was 1.27. By the 2000 Census the average nod-family household size increased slightly to 1.28 . Acknowledged input S -Non-Fariuly Households. For purposes of calculating household formation, the City will use 25% as the percentage of households that are non family households: This frgure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be .the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the percentage of (amity households through data provided by the U.S. Census .Bureau. Acknowledged.Input 6-Average Nan-Family Households Sizes For purposes of calculating non family household formation, the City will use 1.2$ as the as the average household size for non family households. This figure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Corrtprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the Ciry to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the average non family household size through data provided by the U:S. Census Bureau. 6. Population Goals & Palicie:4 Goal » To prepare and maintain population projections as the primary data source for developing and implementing plans and programs for management of the City's growth. Policy: The population forecasts presented in this element shall serve as the basis for the development of land use policy and land use decisions, Element 1 _ Population and Demographics (February 27, 20Q8} Page 6 ATTACHMENT "'_ PLANNING COMMISSION RESOLUTION NO. A RESOLUTION RECOMMENDING APPROVAL OF AN AMENDMENT TO THE CENTRAL POINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN UPDATING THE POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENT WHEREAS, the applicant has initiated a Type IV Legislative change to the City's Comprehensive Plan consistent with Section 17.05.500; and WHEREAS, the amendment is consistent with the following Statewide Planning Goals: #2 Land Use Planning; #9 Economic Development; #10 Housing; #11 Public Facilities and Services; # i 2 Transportation; and # I4 Urbanization; and WHEREAS, the amendment is consistent with the Central Point Comprehensive Plan; and WHEREAS, on March 4, 2008, the Central Point Planning Commission conducted aduly- noticed public hearing at which time it reviewed the City staff reports and heard testimony and comments on the application; NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City of Central Point Planning Commission by this Resolution No. does hereby approve the application based on findings and conclusions of approval set forth on Exhibit "A", the Staff Report dated March 4, 2008, which includes attachments, attached hereto by reference and incorporated herein. PASSED by the Planning Commission and signed by me in authentication of its passage this day of ,eons. Planning commission chair ATTEST: City Representative Approved by me this day of , 2008. Planning Commission Chair Planning Commission Resolution No. (03/04/2008)