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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPlanning Commission Packet - February 5, 2008lsd l}L!;t.. PLAI~I~~'~~ ~"~~~i~~~~I~~~ 1~4~~~;i~11~~ Ee1~>C°~lary ~,Li)f)~ - ?~11Q }~.;;x~. l'Xt ~'1~132n~n CoTTlll~~~til()I1 l~('titll{ItlOil ~No. 741 IL t~~L.t~ CI~~.L, Connie Moczygemba, Candy Fish, Dart~an ldiart, Chuck Piland, Pat. Beck, Mike (Jliver, and Juctir~ Hurley III. CC~I~~~~~:~~~fNUENCE IV. I1~ ~ "1'~~~ A. Review and approval of January 1 S, 208 Planning Commission 1vlinutes V. 1'ITI3I.IC APPEA LACES VI, BUSINESS V. DISCUSSION Review of Ele-~~er~t 1 - Fopulatio~~ & De~4grap-hi~cs VII. ADMINIS°I'RAT'IVE REVI,~~' VIII. MISCELL.ANEdJJI' IX. ADJOU SENT ~x~r~HS~o~ o~ C ~BHAI~D YILLAC ~ F"II~iAL, PUD D~YEL4P1VIEl~iT PLAN 8C 'T"~HTATIY~ PLAItii ~~~FF F~EPC~F~T ~:~~, ~~ , ~, ~-, ~~rlr7ii;;;~ ~~~~~~~<~t~~cr~~c~i,i~ (~,si I~tn~~~slu~, I1[i_1', tdC7mtTtUni~, Ik~~,r:;n~ r~;c~;~[ I>~ ~i t<~r,' r~t~l~: ~ ~~1~ ITE ; 'il~ ~ o. ~D5n6 t _ _____ _____ ...._ _.w__.~ ....__ ~_ Cor~sidcratio ofthe r~c~uest Iur are e~;tcz~sio~~ ofia~:~~~~ow<~l fc» il~c i~in~ll Pll) I~evelo~~~raet~t Klan aril Tentative Plan zuap for ~:rehl~ard "~`iiJa.~c I'lanrlcd lJr~ii I7evelopmcnt located, at 4t)2C~ Ge1~l~<ird IZo~~d i.n an R~-~, Rs; sidential Twig-Family zanil~g c3istr~ict. ~11~e t,7rojcct sic is idcr~tiiicd u~t tl~e Jaclcso~~ C;vi~~~ty Assessor's map as 3'7 ZW 02 AA, Tax Lot. Z~UO, Al's 101~~~726. Applic t; Crebhard Village, f,I.,C; Agent; lric Artner. STAFF SUL IZCE: Cannie ~;lunc. Cammt~nity P1a~~t1e3: BACKGR(~Tl'~i~; _ __ ~~ Resolutio~~ ~~>. 711 dated December 5, 2flt~G, the Planning Corr~m~ssion approved the Final I~eveloprr~etlt I'lazi a~~d Tentative Plan map far a fi3 residential itiiit di;velaprnent known as Gebhard Village Platuii:d Unit Development. With this r~;gt~cst, the applicant has also submitted a phasin~,~ plan for tl~e project. In accordance with Section 16.12.060 ~B) the City (staff) has the authority to approve time extensions an final plats for periods in excess of one year, but not treater dean eve years, prcwid~~d tite project is developed i~~ p1li~ses, 1t is the applic<ta~t's intent to develop the project in three phases as illustrated in Figure 1 (Attacluncnt `°C"). ~i . Page 1 of 4 1 ~" ~ i ' ~~,, ~~~ .~_~ ~ ~` ~~ ~ x~ ~~ ~ a ~ s r. ~ .,. . {. I: ~ { ~ i i ~ ~ ,r ~ ~ T ' ~~ ~ ~ ~" .: ~ ~ ~a° ~ ~ ~I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 111 ~ K - ( b ~( l - ~ ` ~ ~ fio sir 1 ~ vi h ~ 1 __. ~ ... J . ~ ... J ~ n ~ i ~~ ~ ~ l ~ ,~ ~ ~~~ _ ~~~~ ~ ~ _ '` 1 ~. ~ ~ i lI I ~ ~ } C%~ = i i c ~ ~. l~ ~„ l~" ~ Asa I e. TS• y' ~ ~ i i. ~ y ~se ~~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~s ~ ! 1 1 ~ ~~i; ~e~~ ~ ; ~ i Figur~31 ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ - .. -- - ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ - __ ~ _ t ~ t l ~. om II k~ '~ ~ a, ~~n~ .~_ ~..~ ' ~ _ .~ . ,~ ~ ..~_ .~~ ~. FINDINGS: The request for a one (1}year extension was received in a timely manner. ISSUES: In considering the issues, it is important to note that the applicant has completed engineered plans for the project and that the issues presented are the minimum modifcations to the current plans deemed necessary to assure the proper development of adjacent vacant properties. Since the ariginal approval date of the Final Development Plan, the City's street standards have been modified and additional requirements for grading plans have been recommended. As an extension request, it is within the City's authority to either modify conditions of approval, or deny. Because of the amount of effort and cost spent in preparing engineered drawings, the preferred solution is to modify the original conditions of approval, as follows: Street Standards. Subsequent to approval of the Final PUD Development Plan approval the City's street standards have been modifed. As initially designed the project relied upon streets considerably narrower than the current standards. To maintain the neighborhood transportation circulation plan and to assure proper circulation/access to the vacant property to the east, ~t is proposed that at a minimum Johnson Lake Drive be widened to meet the current residential street travel way standard of 36 ft. All other streets that serve the project are adequate in width. 2. Grading Plan. As a result of the character of this development (single family attached/detached) the Building Department has requested that a comprehensive grading plan be prepared for each lot of the project prior to final plat approval. The purpose of the comprehensive grading plan is to assure that the incremental development of each lot will be in accordance with a grading plan that takes into consideration the proper drainage away from adjoining lots and to the appropriate storm drainage system. 3. Phasing Plan. As noted, the applicant is requesting approval of a phasing plan. Given market conditions, it is expected that development of the project will take in excess of one year. Staff is prepared to authorize a three (3}year schedule for development of all three phases. It is important to note that the final plat for the first phase must be recorded on, or before, December 1, 2008. If said final plat is not recorded by that date, both the approved PUD and the approved Tentative PIan map will expire. CONDITIONS OF EXTENSION APPROVAL: Conditi©nal Extension: An approved extension would include the following conditions: l . Prior to final plat approval, Johnson Lake Drive shall be re-engineered to comply with Residential Street standards subject to the following exception: In Lieu of a landscape row the sidewalk shall be moved adjacent to the curb similar to other streets within the project. Johnson Lake Drive travel way shall be widened by eight (S} ft. fora 36 ft. travel way while maintaining the current right-of--way width of 52 ft. The added travel way width will eliminate the street landscape row on the north side of Johnson Lake Drive. The re-engineered plan for Johnson Lake Drive shall be submitted to the City of Central Point Public Works Department for Page 2 of 4 approval as recommended in the Public Works Comments dated January 25, 2008 (Attachment E). 2. Prior to final plat approval, the applicant shall prepare and submit to the City Public Works and Building Departments a comprehensive grading plan as described in the Building Department Conditions dated January 24, 2408 (Attachment F). The comprehensive grading plans must be approved by the City prior to final plat approval. 3. Prior to final plat approval of Phase 1, City staff shall review the proposed phasing plan and impose such conditions as necessary to assure that all public improvements are installed as necessary to assure that the public's health, safety and welfare in accordance with the intent of Chapter 16 of CPMC. 4. Prior PUD Conditions. The foIlawing conditions as listed in Planning Commission Report dated December S, 2006, Exhibit A of Resolution 711 remain in effect and are herein identified for purposes of continuity: a. Planning staff has final approving authority for the attached single family homes and that dormers on rear elevations shall be a requirement of staff approval. b. The two (2) open space areas shall be fenced for safety reasons. Fencing materials shall compliment the architectural character of the project and not obstruct view of landscaping. (Chain link fencing is not acceptable). c. Attached single family hames in groups of 4 to 6 shall have different exterior paint colors to add emphasis to the individual units. d. Site Plan Review is not required. All necessary exhibits For site plan review have been submitted as part of the Final PUD Development Plan. 5. Prior Conditions, Tentative Plan. Conditions as listed in Staff Report dated July 5, 2005, Exhibit A of Resolution 6S9 remain in effect and are herein identified for purposes of continuity. These conditions have been discussed with the applicant and the applicant is agreeable as evidenced by the letter from Eric Artner dated January 24, 200$. Tf granted, the revised expiration date would be December 1, 2008. ATTACHMENTS: Attachment "A"-Extension Request dated November 29, 2007 Attachment "B"-Eric Artner letter dated January 24, 2008 Attachment "C"-Proposed Three Phases Development Attachment "D"-Final PUD plan Attachment "E"-Public Works Report Attachment "F"-Building Department Conditions dated January 23, 200$ Attachment "G"-Tentative Plan map Page 3 of 4 ACTION: Consideration of the request for a one (1) year extension far approval of the Final PUD Plan and Tentative Plan map for Gebhard Village Planned Unit Development subject to the conditions as set forth in this Staff Report dated February 5, 2448. RECOMMENDATION: Approve the request for a one (1 }extension of the Final PUD Development Plan and the Tentative Plan map with an expiration date of December 1, 2048. 4 Page 4 of 4 From: Eric Artner Construction To:6545384 November 29, 2007 Tam Humphery City of Central Poil~t Project: Gebhard Village L.L.C Concerning: Extension of PUD and Final Development Plan Dear Tam ~~ ~,.~.~ ...: '~ ~ 2001 Due to the economy, lots available, and lots and town home sales prices and absorp#ion, I am requesting an one year exkension. Sincerely Eric Artner 11I."`"I~Dp7 y3:~~ #1aq P.t1Q~fg02 J CR CCB #'[46654 ~ PO Box 609 CA CCB #463249 Jacksonville, qf~ 9753{7 • ~ ~'h 541 -245-0448 Fax 549-245-6889 1`ram: Eric Artner Canstruct:ic~n Ta: 6E346384 ~~b~~r~ ~~>~g~~ ~~ P.o. Box Ca09 fI?!24I2BD8 15: 2D #553 P.OQ~1pC12 AITAGHMENT "~~ Jacksonv~.l.e, QR 97533 Phone: (54 ~.) 2459448 Fax: (S41) 245-6889 , City Qt C9ntral POlnt punning Department Central Pont, Or. 97502 I ~ January 24, 2008 Property 4922 Gebhard Road 372W02AA, Tax Lot 2800 Gebhard Village LLC and Eric Artner agree to remove planter strip, widen Johnson Lane Dr and provide a comprehension lot grading plan before tins[ plat. ~--.~. Sincerely, Eric Artner ATTACHMENT " C- " a. =I- ~ "~ ~o- w 1 a b°.e o ~~ ~~ i~ ~ > ly w w `~a 1 _ -. 3x ]W 03 r 0' ~•C6 ~ la a~~ ,.E. .Ec : \ ~ t i 5. ^~ I ~ ~ o€ ~.. 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Dxrji,. 7q, ?OCL4 ~~ '- COnetrVOllon of Constru0tlOn of S' Conalrc~oHOn 01 t0 Fown Homes 20 Town Homea 20 Town Homes Bass Lake DrWe 0 iota 11 Lots Work fo Start 8-0-08 Haar! le!!e tklve JOtmwn Lake Drlva COmptel6 A°W09 Put of Crsscagt Lske Crlve CrseCMi L4kr Shlve Alley 8s1x6M 0 Lots AMy 9shlnd 6 iota Wprk t0 8lsrt B-O-OB WOrk to Start B-O-11 complete 9-0-H complete D^0.19 ~,or~~ ~„ a„ ,w,,.,r~.rm, krs+oamwar ~+.wuw ~caatw• w n..rw %K -Rm¢YS FA`~• ~~ M -.r aFCy sac<a e~+~o+ ~,.a,rm wrs xon na ON143nUlIS N38XV.! oGC '?w+ ~YOS~~ LYi w Yw] W'm'wiY iMCI scamr aa~nx.awHlrn~iw ~eronw ~.~.~l.a...or, ~ ~_ ,,.r~,. m..~, r m~ rte. ~. ,'~~ . ~°~,°'- wF+* n.a my wowr - ,.n w..~s ~ o s+az u urv - .v v+a mr s e.w - 6 urm mo--a snw.~.rso4v w.aa .n,.A mFr.m s rw - 7 ~ ~~ wV.H ti#l A 133119 Z f1-~f-R> 1~N tifOftiape 4---~[EiY....._1 ~.vara ~.:: , _ I ~ 1 i I it I' F ji ~, I !,II 1 ~i i '~. ~; l~ S I ~.: .~ ~ ' ~' : . ~i } ~~ ~~ ~I I I' I'. 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SNNd T?Il N3~ !~ /.1f5 '/MCRf3Y1 71A31N3lrx IS3M L .491rru 'Mll)~ [C dlil51A4'Al - "" * L NOIS735 !O U3alMiD 3h'O 15Y3ii18'ON I rn A~+w<} nrv~d and m+tvtd ,~avN~wrr3ad i io 1 idrYS I`., I I c: or i+--7 I 1~ I~i,~a ~I1~'~ _.~..-.~i~Ir~~ i Ma m 1g ~ Ili I I a fEll I II'~~r d ~ 6 ' +il III ~ IMF: b ~ f1 I ~(K f ! r~ ii ~ i,l ~;, I; rta 'C~ rM rfi I~ ... 3. li ~' u$ ]mTilltliViY • ...Y___ -.-- 4 I n - - ~~11Fii fr s ~= 3 ' 7~ 5Y .I I' II u i~l I; JJI C 13r~~~ t'rer~ E: f~ir~t~ctot~ M~~fl ;7<rttrit~-re, Dcv<:It~ttr~c~rtt St:;rvic~s ~., ~ lY1J ,1,3.~ ~ll:~i~~..1lJ~Yl. TC?: PLANNING I~EI~AI~TMT F4~M~ Itit,1.TT SAMI`I"CJI2.E SLTI~~IC;C'I': <; I:BI~.ARD VILLAGE CIVIL II~II?RC~VI :'~rll :'~'l Pla~~nin~,: The Public Works Department has the fallowing can~znczlt regarding the e~tensir~n afthe Gebhard Village PUD. 1. Johnson Lake T)rive - Johnson Lake Drive- does not meet Public Works standards for design width based upon the anticipated number aftrips thy; street will accam~~~odate at full. build out ahthc area. Johnsi~z~ Lake Drive will be ozle of two cast-west str~;efs ~~,-itlzin the area and is anticipated to handle rip to 3~~00 trips a day at fiall build e~ut. Public Vvars is retluesiing that the street be widened iay' an additional eight (~') feet to conform with, a standard City Street design ofthirt~~•si~ Feet in ,paved surlace. "l'l~e o erall ~~ight~a~ way shall be S?', ~~llich will accomrnadate curb-side si~le~n ttlks. A revised ci~~incca~in plan.. shu~vir~~, this an~cncln~ent must be completed prior to construction occ~~.~ring;. !~ revised streci tree plan must also be submitted showing. this change. 2. Phasing Plan -- The proposed phasing plan includes a new phase to construct the parcels on the North side of Bass Lake Drive as part of phase 1. Public Works would like to clarify that the plan includes the entire street section far Bass Lake Drive, Phase 2 would include canstructian of Crescent Lake Drive to include the entire street section afHeart Lake Drive. Fhase 3 will include all the ether streets within the development. 14a S®uth Third Street Gentrai Paint, CSR 97"50 541.6fi4.~~~1 Fax 54~. G64.6~84 Citrof City of Central Point, Oregon _ C~NT~L 140 S Third Street, Central Point, OR 97'S02 POD ~ 1 541.664.332 I I"ax 54 i .664.161 ( 1 www.ci.central-point.or us C?rey°1 January 24, 200$ i I ~ 1 ~ 68.E Buildin De artment ~.......... g P.~ ...--------_...... Todd Meador, Building O~Cial GEBHARD VILLAGE LLC - P. U.D. BUILDING/PLANNING DEPARTMENT CONDITIONS - P.U.D. site must be properly graded and drained {storm drain/catch basins/area drains, etc.) AND approved by the Building and Public Works Departments. This includes ALL lots. Any retaining walls that are needed must be inplace. - Permited as necessary - Prior to final plat approval engineers of record (Kas & Assoc.) must verify that each lot drainage does not adversely effect adjacent properties. - Indicate where retaining walls wilt be necessary. - Prior to ANY construction, all grading/area drains/retaining walls -must be in place and approved by the Buitding Department. 940 S ThiRd Street a Central Point, OR 97542 •549.664.332? + Fax 54?.664.16? 9 ~a s ~gt €~ i~ ~~ I [~ II ll 11 11 a'1; ~ ~ ~j i I ~ ~i~~~ r ~~ I i s r ~F 1 ~; ~! ~~ t ~~!! Iti .~._,.. _......1 ATTACH M EI~T "~~" t~ Vii= N ~~~ ~l ICI 1 € 1 E €~[ I--- --~ i€-----i E ~ I I I f i[ I 1 1 1 € € 1 1 •~ ,. II ^~ ~~._ - ~ ~ ~ 4 ~......._~.. 1 ~ ____ -- ~e.~ rc _ r x - ~~1 1 «..,.k T _ -W -- ~ ~ ~ M:k _r..~ l ! 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YN-fnY M kY Y/tC~Tb ti[tr r »n=.ew.rw .r !lCtT ! !4I 7nr auI rWW/lltl Mt Rill11R.7itl!>7~,IL ¢([! ~ 1RISYY. ypprr 4tl 4114961/[ RIYI M~.OMC (lCA1Pi /It OfA »~ p{;T i ~plt~lyl~~ pq(Rpyp r~µ »..9041DtlfAYL I~113f M Iwo NL ~a b e~ at a ~ Shra3 Y e! 7 SubdCvlan P1on SAatl f p! i P{Jt) Pr0/1 \MlflYil` twlra ~i""~ :~ '~OSAliwtli ree.a f.x u•r1~s sew>.e y: FMBER h SOMA, 1rlG tl0a IIRSFR SWOh'CYIMD ia. s~Or~9ariiT twnic rover, arccal rrwx ~aees • yM POPUL,ATIO~I 8c D~MOC RAPHICS ~LEM~HT OF COMPR~HENSIY~ PLAN City of Central Point, Oregon 140 So.Titird St., Central Point, Or 97502 541,664.3321 Fax 541.664.6384 www.ci.ceniral-point.or.us Planning Department Tom Humphrey,AICP, Community fle~elapment pirector/ Assistant City Administrator To: Planning Commission From: Don Burt Subject: Population & Demographics Element ofthe Conaprehen,sive Plcrrl Date: January 30, 2008 The Planning Department is beginning to update the Comprehensive Plan and is starting with the Population Element (attached}. The Population Element provides the primary data. necessary for preparation of the City's Land Use, Transportation, Housing, and Economic elemerlts. The population data in the Population Element is based on the County's recently completed population Forecast, which includes population projections for all cities within Jackson County. The data is also derived from the U.S. Census for the City of Central Point. The purpose of Tuesday's meeting is to present the Population Element to the Planning Commission for your consideration and discussion. After discussion the Planning Commission will direct staff to schedule the Population Element for a public hearing at the March meeting, at which time the Commission will take public testimony and forward a recommendation to the City Council. Key considerations are: l . Projected population to 2030; 2. Persons per household; 3. Household type; and 4. Percentage share of total population. It is important to realize that the forecast figure are not absolutes, they are intended for planning purposes only. Each year the forecast population will be compared against Portland State University population figures, and by 2010 the U.S. Census will be underway, which will provide opportunity for further adjustment. Page 1 of 7 ~. ~1"l. ~ (~ ~.1C} (J ~" 1C~' 3anuar~ 2, ~Q City of Central Point -Comprehensive Plan Element 1: Population and Demographics Table of Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... l 2. Population Growth Forecast .........................................................................................................1 3. Population Growth Characteristics ..............................................................................................3 3.1 Growth Rate ............................................................................................................................ 3 3.2 Percentage Share of the County's Population~ .....................................................................3 3.3 Source of Growth ....................................................................................................................3 4. Populatiou Age Characteristics ....................................................................................................3 5. Household Characteristics .............................................................................................................4 5.1 Average Household Size ......................................................................................................... 5 5.2 Household Type .......................................................................................................................5 5.2,1 Family Households ..................................................................................................5 5.2.2 Non-Family Households .........................................................................................6 6. Populatiou Goals &Policies ...........................................................................................................6 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan, 2008-2030 ELEMENT 1 _ POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHICS 1. 1(ntroduction Central Paint was founded in 1889 and by 1900 had a population of 3ZZ~. With the exception of the decade between 1910 and 1920 the City of Central Point has continued to steadily grow {Table 1 }, a~~d today is the third largest city in Jackson County. Over the course of the next twenty years, the City's population is expected to continue to grow, requiring additional land far housing, recreatiar~, erllployment, and supporting infrastructure. In an effort to facilitate the City's planning process, it is the purpose of this Population Element to formally acknowledge a projected rate of population growth to the year 2030 and to identify the genera! population and household characteristics associated with the City's population. It is important to understand that the population projections set forth in this Population Element are estimates. These estimates are based on the best available information. The information contained in tllis Population Element will be used as the basis for rnairrtaining and updating ofthe City's comprehensive plan in accordance with ORS 197.712 (urban growth boundaries} and ORS 197.295 - 197.Z9b (housing). The information presented in this Population Element is either historic data from the U.S. Census or population forecasts from the Jackson County Comprehera,sive Plan, 2007 Population Element. Mast of the information is to be used simply to describe the population's general characteristics, while other information is intended to be used in the deternination of the amount of land and types of land uses needed to accommodate the projected population growth. It is the intent of the City to maintain the population Forecasts based on the ZO10 U.S. Census and Portland State University Population Research Center population estimates. Throughout this Population Element reference will be made to Acknowledged Inputs. Acknowledged Inputs represent data inputs to be used by the City in the maintenance and updating of such elements of the Comprehensive Plan that rely an population data to deternine land use needs to the year 2030. Table 1. Population and Crowth: 11900 - 2000 t7.S. Census, 2005 PS€T l~stimate City of Central Point, Jackson County, and State of Oregon Year City of Central Point Pa ulation % Increase Jackson Connty Po nlation % Increase State of Oregon Po nlation % Increase 1900 322 13,698 413,536 1910 761 136.34% 25,756 88.03% 672,765 62.69% 192D 582 -23.52% 20,405 -20.78% 783,389 [6.44% 1930 821 41.07% 32,918 61.32% 953,786 21.75% 1940 906 10.35% 36,213 10.01% 1,084,684 14.25% 1950 1,667 $4.OD% S8,SI0 61.57% 1,521,141 34.59% 1960 2,284 37.31% 73,962 26.41% 1,768,687 16.27% 1970 4,004 74.92% 94,533 27.81% 2,091,385 18.25% 1980 6,357 58.77% 132,456 40.12% 2,633,[56 25.90% 1990 7,509 18.12% 146,389 10.52% 2,847,000 8.12% 2000 12,443 66.37% 181,273 23.83% 3,42!,399 20.18% 2005* 15,640 25.19% 144,515 7.31% 3,631,440 6.14% Soorce~ U.S. Census aad Portland State Unieersiry Estimate, 2005` 2. Population Growth Forecast On February 21, 2007 by Ordinance No. 2007-3, the County adopted an update to their Comprehensive ~ U.S. Census Bureau Element 1 -Population and Demographics (January 22, 2008} Page l City of Centro[ Point Comprehensive Plan, 2048-2030 Plan, 2007 Population Element. This action by the County was undertaken in accordance with State law2 which requires that counties maintain and periodically update population forecasts for communities within their jurisdiction. The County's updated Population Element included individual annual population forecasts for each city within the County to the year 2040. The population forecasts were prepared in coordination with each municipality and in accordance with State law. The methodology used in preparing the forecasts is presented in the County's Population Element, which is incorporated herein by reference {Appendix A). The population forecast for the City of Central Point is presented in Table 2. The data in Table 2 is based on the Jackson County Comprehensive Plan, 2007 Population Element, and illustrates the projected population growth of the City to the year 2040. Although population has been projected to 2040 in Table 2, For purposes of this Population Element, the 2030 population forecast is the basis for the City's land use planning as presented in the City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan, 2008. As illustrated in Table 2, by the year 2030 the City's population is forecast to increase by 10,240. It is expected that by the year 2022 the City of Central Point's population will exceed that of the City of Ashland, making Central Point the second largest city in the County3. Acknowledged Input 1-Population Forecast: The population data presented in Table 2 is acknowledged as the projected population to be used in Table 2. Population Forecast City of Central Point and Jackson County, 2005-2040 City of Central Year Jackson County Point % ot` County 2005 194,515 15,640 8.04% 2006 197,963 15,896 8.03% 2007 202,002 ]6,358 8.10% 2008 206,124 16,793 $.15% 2009 210,329 17,239 8.20% 2111:0 214s621 t~~95 8.~5% 201 ~ 217,62 1 s,o5a 8.29°i° 2012 220,572 18,411 8.34% 2013 223,762 1$,778 8.39% 2014 226,844 19,152 8.44% ZD.I5 23t).,+ltri$ 19541 8 49°D/a 2015 233,257 19,918 5.54% 2017 236,3$7 20,301 8.59% 2018 239,559 20,691 8.64% 2019 242,773 21,087 8.69% 2020 246;1131 .21,49.1 8,74%, 2021 249,049 21,877 8.78% 2022 252,105 22,269 8.83% 2023 255,197 22,667 8.88% 2024 258,328 23,072 8.93% 2025 26:1;497 z~;4$3 8:98% 2026 264,419 23,875 9.03% 2027 267,374 24,364 9.I 1% 2028 270,361 24,861 9.20% 2029 273,382 25,367 9.28% 203© 27b,437 2S,8$(1 9:36%.. 2031 279,318 26,382 9.45% 2032 282,230 26,892 9.53% 2033 285,173 27,410 9.61 2034 288,146 27,935 9.69% 2(135 291i5U 28;459 9:78% 2036 294,142 29,006 9.$6% 2037 297,165 29,552 9.94% 2038 300,219 30,105 10.03% 2039 303,304 30,667 10.11°/a 2040 :306;421 31;23' 10.19% maintaining and updating the City 's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the data presented in Table 2 as it relates to the Ciry of Central Point through data provided by Portland State University and the U.S. Census Bureau, 2 Oregon Revised Statute {ORS) 195.036 3 Population Element, Jackson County Cotnprehensive Plan, Table 7. Element 1 -Population and 17emographics (January 22, 2008} Page 2 City of Centra] Pvint Comprehensive Plan, 2pti$-Za3Q 3. Population Growth Characteristics In addition to the projected population growth, the following represents an overview of the informatiort presented in the Jackson County Catnprehertsive Plan, Population Element. Figure 1. City of Central Point Historic & Forecast Population P 3s,ooa ,31,23'7 __... 0 30,000 p .,,.,,,., X322 761 582 821 906 "~""` 6,357 - ~~_...._,.._ , ..~;..._.... , ~... _. , 2.289. ;...... ~O ,~O ~Q ,,~0 ~O ~O ~O r~0 ~O ~O Q4 ~O ,~O „~O ~O ~~ ~~ ti~ ~q ti~ ti~ 1~ ti~ ti~ ti~ ti~ ~~ ti~ ~~ ti~ Census Year 3.1. Growth Rate: As illustrated in Figure 1, since 1480, the population of the Jackson County has grown faster than the state. During this same period, the City of Central Point has exceeded the rate of growth of the County and has been one of the fastest growing cities within the County, with an average annual growth rate of 3.67%4. By the year 2030, it is expected that the City will continue to grow but at a slower average annual rate of approximately 2.6%. During the same period, t13e County is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.68%. 3.2. Percentage Share of the County Population: In 1950, Central Point's population accounted for 2.8% of the County's population. In 2005, the City made up approximately 8% of the County population. Over the course of the next 35 years, this rate is expected to continue to increase, with a 2040 population share of approximately 10%. 3.3. Source of Growth: There are two basic sources to population growth: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration (in-migration minus out-migration). Growth occurring as a result of natural increase is typically a small percentage of a community's population growth. Mast increases in population are a result of net migration. Based on the 2000 U.S. Census, the predominant source of growth for Jackson County was the result of net migration with over 80% of the population growth resulting from net migrations. 4. Population Age Characteristics Since the 1940 Census, the age characteristics of the County population have remained relatively constant. In 2000, the single largest age cohort was the 25 - 44 age cohort, which accounted for a Jackson County Population Element, Table 5 s U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Element 1 -Population and De~nogra~hics (January 22, 2008} Page 3 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan, 2p08-2030 approximately 25% of the total populal iara followed very closely by the 45 - b4 age cohort (Baby Boomers}. Figure 2 illustrates the shift in the 25 -44 age cohort between 1990 and 2000. Unlike the County, Central ]'Dint's 45 ~- 64 age cohort only experienced a small gain in percentage of total population. Central Point's Under 5 age cohort did experience an increase in total population when compared to the County's Under 5 age cohort. Figure 3 illustrates the cl3a~tge in age cohorts between 1990 and 2000. Table 3. .laekson County Ponulati~n by Awe C'nhnrt_ 1940 Rt 2(1(1(1 Age Group 1990 Population % Change 2000 Population % Change Under 5 9,758 6.67% 10,880 6.00% 5 - 17 26,947 18.41 % 33,380 18.41 % 18 - 24 12,375 8.45% 15,730 8.68% 25 - 44 43,897 29.99% 46,260 25.52% 45 - 64 29,700 20.29% 46,028 25.39% 65 and over 23,712 16.20% 28,991 15.99% Total 146,389 100.00% 181,269 100.00% Table 4. City of Central Foint Population by Acre Cohort. 1990 & 2000 Age Grou 1990 Po elation % Chan a 2000 Po elation % Chan e Under 5 519 6.91% 976 7.81% 5 -17 1,623 21.61% 2,596 20.78% 18 - Z4 589 7.84% 978 7.83% 25 - 44 2,289 30.48% 3,651 29.22% 45 - 64 1,429 19.03% 2,521 20.18% 55 and over 1.,050 14.12% 1,771 14.18% Total 7,509 100.00% 12,493 100.00% 5. Household Characteristics A by-product of population growth is the formation of households. Trends in household fot~rnation are an important consideration when discussing residential land Heads necessary to accommodate forecasted population growth. Since the early 1900s, household characteristics have been gradually changing. For purposes of land use planning, it is important to understand the trends associated with household formation. For purposes of this Population Element, there are two characteristics worth noting: Average household size and household type. Figure 2. Jackson County Population by Age cohort, 1[940 & 2ooa P 50,000 ° 45.000 P 40.000 ° 35.000 30,000 a 25,000 t 20,000 15.000 ~ 10.000 ° 5.000 n UnderS 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65antl over Age Cohort 1?iement I -Population and E}emographics {January 22, 2008) Page 4 City of Central Point CoEnprehensive Plan, 20fl8-2Q30 5.1. Average Household $ize Since the 1970 Census, and before, the average household size has been gradually declining. For the City of Centro[ Paint, the average household size has dropped froze 3.45 in ].970 to 2.69 in 2000. It is expected that during the term of the planning period (2030} that the average household size will continue to decrease but at a decreasing rate. n ....................................... ................ UnderS 5-[7 18-24 25-44 45-64 55 and over Age Cohort Acknowledged Input 2 ~ Average Household Size. For pujposes of calculating household for~rratinra, the City will use an average household size of 2.59. This frgure will he the basis for determining the number of households expected to be formed throughout the planning period. 1't shall he the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessaryy, update the average household .size through data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. 5.2. Household Type As previously noted, households are categorized as either family ornon-family households. Past trends in the distribution of households by average size and type is worth noting, particularly as it relates to the demand for housing, residential land needs, and infrastructure necessary to support residential growth. Over the course of the past 40 years, average household size has been declining (Figure 4}. In addition to the decline in average household size, the distribution of households by type has been gradually shifting to non-family households. Whether the average household size or mix of household types changes, there will be consequences on the demand far housing. Figure 4. Historical AverageHousehold Sizefor Jackson County and Central Point 195D - 20DD, Projected U.S. to 201D H 3.5 _.......---.-. ...................................................... 3.42 Geatral Point u 3.13 g 3.08 3.05 .~` Z.9 h ~~ o Jackson County `•~ a.~i 7.69 2.62 I ~ ys._ d 2.5 -..... ..................................................................... ~_~ 2.4 ~~ s 2 ' .............. _ . __ .~.._ _ _ ._......... _ - _. Z e 1950 196D 197D 1980 1990 2000 CensusYear Source: U S. Census 5.2.1. Farnrly Households: Family households are comprised of two or more people who are related by marriage, birth, or adoption. Most family households are most commonly represented by married-couples. Family households have and continue to dominate household types. However, although the formation of family households continues to increase, it is doing so at a decreasing rate. In 1990, family households in Central Paint accounted for 77% of all households. By the 2000 Census, family households represented 75% of total households. l;lement I - Popuiatian arad Demographics {January 22, 2048) Page 5 City of Central Point Comprehensive Pian, 20fl8-2030 Based on the 2000 Census, the average number of persons per fancily household in Central Point was 3.05. In 1990, the average number of persons per family household was 3. l5. Figure 4 illustrates the history of average family household size in the U.S. and Central Point. Acknowledged 1'nput 3 -Family Houselrolrls. For• purposes ref calculatini,> household formation, the City will use 7S% as the percentage of households that are, family households. This frgure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City'.s Cantpr•ehen.sive Plarr. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically »7onitar and, if necessary, update the percentage offanTily households througl~ data provided by the U.S. Certsics Bureau. Acknowledged Input ~ --Average Family Households Size. For purpo.se.s of calculating household formatiart, the City will use 3.06 as the average household slze,faY,farrtily households. This figure shall be used in rrraintaining and updating the City s Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the average family household size through data provided by the U.S Census Bureau. 5.2.Z. Nan-Family Households: Non-family households are comprised of single persons, or tvva or more people who are not related. In 1990, non-family households represented 23% of all households within the City. By 2000 non-family households represented 25% of all households. As the City's population grows older, the number of non-family households can be expected to increase. Based on the 1990 Census, the average number of persons per non-family households was 296. By the 2000 Census the average non-family household size dropped to 2.69. Acknowledged 1'nput 5 -Non-Family Households. Far purposes of calculating household formation, the City will use 25% as the percentage of households that are non farrrily households. This figure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the percentage of family households through data provided by the U.S. Census• Bureau. Acknowledged Input 4 -Average Non-Family Households Size. For purposes of calculating household formation, the City will use 1.75 as the as the average household size far family households. This frgure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the average non family household size through data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. 6. Population Goals & Policies Goal - To prepare and maintain population projections as the primary data source far developing and implementing plans and programs for management of the City's growth. Policy: The population forecasts presented in this element shall serve as the basis for the development of land use policy and land use decisions. 1/lement 1 -Population and Demographics (January 22, 2008} Page 6