The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutOrdinance 1973ORDINANCE NO. 193 AN ORDINANCE UPDATING AND ADOPTING THE CENTRAL POINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN ECONOMIC ELEMENT Recitals: A. The City of Central Point (City) is authorized under Oregon Revised Statute (ORS) Chapter 197 to prepare, adopt and revise comprehensive plans and implementing ordinances consistent with the Statewide Land Use Planning Goals. B. The City has coordinated its planning efforts with the State in accordance with ORS 197.040(2)(e) and OAR 660-030-0060 to assure compliance with goals and compatibility with City and County Comprehensive Plans. C. Pursuant to authority granted by the City Charter and the ORS, the City has determined to update its Economic Element which was originally adopted in 1980 and revised in 1983. D. Pursuant to the requirements set forth in CPMC Chapter 17.10.100 Amendments — Purpose and Chapter 17.96.010, Procedure, the City has initiated the amendments and conducted the following duly advertised public hearings to consider the proposed amendments: a) Planning Commission hearing on May 7, 2013 b) City Council hearing on June 13, 2013. THE PEOPLE OF THE CITY OF CENTRAL POINT DO ORDAIN AS FOLLOWS: Section 1. Based upon all the information received, the City Council adopts the Findings of Fact and Conclusions of Law dated June 27, 2013 and incorporated herein by reference; determines that changing community conditions, needs and desires justify the amendments and hereby adopts the changes entirely. Section 2. The City Comprehensive Plan Economic Element is hereby updated and adopted as set forth in Exhibit A —Comprehensive Plan Economic Element, 2013 which is attached hereto and by this reference incorporated herein. Section 5. The City Manager is directed to conduct post acknowledgement procedures defined in ORS 197.610 et seq. upon adoption of the Economic Element. Passed by the Council and signed by me in authentication of its passage this 27th day of June, 2013. k4_4"- � Council President Bruce Dingler ATT T. City Recorder Page I of 1 City ®f Central Point'` - Economic Element Prepared by: CSA Associates 6/13/2013 Approved by the Ccntral Point City Council on June 27,2013 Implemented by Ordinance No, Page 1 of 51 City of Central Point Table of Contents Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 1 IN'1'RODUCTION.._..................... —............................... ........................... .................................................... 4 2 CEN'L'IAL POINT I--CONOiv1IC 1-IIS'f'ORY.................................................................__._....................4 3 NA'TION,]:,, STA'['SAND RE.GIONALLCONOMIC'I'R13NDS.....................................................5 3.1 National't'rends........................................................................................._..............................................5 3.2 SeatcTrends..................................... .................... .................... ..................... ................................. ........ 10 3.2.1 TechnicsdRevicwofOregon'1'rends......._.................... ..._........................................................... 10 3.2.2 Statewide Fconomic Development..........................................................................._.__..............14 3.3 Economic Outlook and Implications for Central Point ................................ ...................... ...._...... 15 3.4 Regional and Local Trends ...................................... ....... ...................................................................... 16 3.4.1 Dcmogmphics......................................................................................._........._.................................16 3.4.2 Wages and Imploymcnt...................................................................................................................20 3.4.3 Workborcc Commuting Patterns .................. .................................................................................... 22 3.4.4 Economic Development Context ........................ ......................... ............. .... ... .... .......................... 24 3.4.5 Regional Competitiveness ................... ....................................................... ..................................... 25 3.4.6 City of Central Point Competitive Position Summary_......................._......................................28 4 Land Demand...................................................................................................................................................29 4.1 Economic Growth. Rate 1^orccast............................................................................_._........................ 29 4.1.1 Spccialq, Food Manufacturing................................................. ...... ..................... ........................... 30 4.1.2 "Trucking andWarehousing ............................ .... __........................... ._._......................................... 30 4.1.3 Retail............................................................... ............................................................ ..................... ... 30 4.1.4 Planned Growth Forecastby Industry............................................................................................30 4. 1.5 Comparison to Platiied Regional Emplovment Growth ........ .................................................... 31 4.2 20 -year ].and Demand Estimatc........................_.......................................................--_.............._....32 4.3 Site Re9 uirernentsAnah.................................................. �sis-.............................................................34 _ 4.3.1 General Development Pattern Site Requirements Analysis .............. ......... .............. _............. _34 4.3.2 "Target lndLIMIeS' Unique Site Requirements ................. ...... ........ ...... ......... ............................... 35 4.4 Projection of Needed Employment Sites .................. ................................................... ............. ....... 36 dA.1 20 -Year Demand for Needed Sites.......................__...............__.....................................................31 4.42 Short -Term Demand 13stimates—.......... ..........................................................................................38 5 Eniploymcnt Land 13asc Analysis...._ ............................... ............... ..—........... ..... ......................................... 38 5.1 Bullt lcmploymcnt Lands ........ ...... ................................... ........... ....... ....... ................................ .......... 41 5.2 Employment hand Supply ............ ............. —...................... ..... .... .......... ........... ..................................... 43 5.2.1 Vacant Land Supplv............................................... .......................... ......... _............ ........ --- ........ 43 Page 2 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 5.2.2 Vacant Supply vs. Demand Reconciliation— .......... ............................................................... 46 5.2.3 Redevelopment and Land Use lzfficiencv AnalYsis.......... ........................... _--- ................... _--- ... d7 6 Goals, Conclusions and Policies__ ......................................... ............. ......................... _.................. ._........ d% 6.1 Goal: General Hcono❑iic Development .......... .... .... ... ................. ........................... ............................ d8 6.1.1 Policv 1.1............................................................._................__.._.......................................................49 6.1.2 Policv 1.2 ....... ....... ............. .......... .......................................................................... .............. ........... d9 6.1.3 Police 1.3 .................. ....................................... ........................ ............................................................. d9 6.2 Goal: Economic Opportunities Synthesis ........... ......................... ........................ ............................. 49 6.2.1 Police 2.1.............................................................................................................................................. 50 6.2.2 Police- 2.2 ...................... .._._...._.................................................................................... _............ .......50 6.2.3 Policv 2.3 ....................................... ................... ......................................................... _....................... 50 6.3 Goal: Employment Land Supple and Development ................... .................... ._.._................ ....._.SO 6.3.1 Policv 3.1....................................................................._....................................................................... 51 6.3.2 Policv 32 .................... .............................. ................................................................. .......................... 51 6.3.3 Police- 3.2.............................................................................................................................................. 51 Page 3 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 1 INTRODUCTION The Comprehensive Plan Economic Element establishes the City of Central point's land use politics for economic development and contains both quantitative and qualitative analysis that can inform and benefit other aspects of the City's economic development strategy and programming. AS a land use planning document, the Economic Element is constructed to comply with Statewide Planning Goal 9 and its implementing adminisn-ative rule at OAR 660 Division 0091. The purpose of Goal 9 and its implementing Wile is to assure that cities will have adequate supplies- of land for economic development that support identified employment opporamitics within the Cirv. The Economic Element includes both qualitalive and quantitative components. 'fire quantitative analysis in the Economic Element serves several functions: • Characterizes trends • Describes economics relationships • illuminates areas of existing economic strengths • Forecasts future economic conditions • Fstimates future employment land demand and site needs • L:stimates existing land supply and available sites within the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) • Reconciles land demand with existing land supplies and identifies the need for sites in relation to the supply of avaHablc sites within the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) 'Che qualitative components of the Economic Element describe the City's economy in a more intuitive and anecdotal manner. The qualitative aspects of the Economic Element represent opportunities for the City's land use planning to reflect and implement strategic and policy objectives for economic development that are desired be eye City of Central Point The qualitative component is also important. for compliance with Goad 9's implementing rule because it requires an identification of comparative advantages and requires an analysis of site requirements-. Comparative advantages are opportunities for the City of Central Point to outperform overall regional and national economic trends due to unique and special qualities that differentiate and distinguish the City of Central Point. The site requirements analysis describes qualitative ainibures (such as visibility or access) that firms demand when selecting sites for new economic enterprises. Ulturnatcly, future economic conditions are not entirely predictable. However, strategically planning the City's land base to accommodate expected future needs and integrating the City's land use planning efforts with broader economic development strategy and programming, has the potential to benefit economic development conditions within the City. 2 CENTRAL POINT ECONOMIC HISTORY The more detailed qualitative analysis is presented in subsequent sections of the Economic Elcment and is appropriately informed by a brief qualitative sunev the City's Economic History. Central point began its economic life as a small community thae served the surrounding farm industry. Central Point is I Central Point considers the first four sections of rhe Economic Element to functions as the Economic Opportunities tAnalysis for the City oCCentral Point and these seaioos include all required components and comply in all ways with the requirernents for an LCOnOm1e Oppoaunities rAnalyms, laid forth in OAR 660 Division 009. Page 4 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element located upon and near some of Jackson County's best agricultural soils and was well located to serve the needs of surrounding farming operations and this was the Cuv's primary= economic position before rhe mid -1960's. The City of Central Point was well situated to provide a range of economic interaction with the nearby farm community during this period. The City provided a location for schools for children, shops that supplied basic goods and services such as groceries and restaurants. The City was home to the Grange Co-op where the grain elevator was and still is located and provided farmers with needed agricultural supplies. The City was home to farm equipment sales and repair shops and similar retail farm services. Starting in the 1960's and strengthening in the 1970's, the City of Central Point grew into a bedroom community as a result of rapid residential development and a deficiencv of commercial and industrial development that might have provided more jobs for the residents. The forest products industry in the region continued to grow during the period and residents of Central Point were well located for employment in the timber industry, being near to stills located in nearby north iydedford and in White Cin --This condition created a relative imbalance with Central Point supplying a greater proportion of housing in relation to employment within the valley. In 1980, the City of Central Point adopted its first Economic Element that has herewith been replaced by this Economic Element. 'I lie U.S. economy has undergone four full economic cycles since the Cite of Central Ponnt's last economic element over thirry years ago. The 1980 Economic Element sought to diversify rhe City's economy and reduce the degree of imbalance between employment and housing within the Citv. Central Point has been successful to some extent over the last thirty' vears in its efforts to diversify its economy. The City has experienced retail and industrial growth in and around Exit 33 on Interstate 5. Providence Hospital recently added a medical facility on Highway 99 south of Pine Street. A small specialty foods cluster has developed along Highway 99 north of Pine Street that includes Rogue Creamery, Lillie Belle Farms chocolates and a wine tasting room. The Rogue Vallee Council of Governments has its main office building near downtown Central Point. Additional retail has been added near freeway interchanges and along Pine Street and Highway 99. These employers and others have served (and an overarching objective of this Economic Flement is) to continue to add more balance and diversity to the City's employment base. 3 NATIONAL, STATE AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS To provide the necessary context for the adoption of updated economic development policies and strategies in the City's Comprehensive Plan, a review of national, state and regional trends is appropriate. This review informs the qualitative aspects of the Economic Element by providing a foundation to describe the City's comparative advantages. Also, the State of Oregon provides a ten-year regional employment forecast which provides a sound and generally accepted reference forecast from winch to project localized economic growth for the City of Central Point. 3.1 National Trends The national economy over the last five years has undergone the worst period since World War 11 from a GDP perspective. This period was preceded by an economic expansion in the early 1990's, and with the exception of a modest downturn in 2000 to 2001, continued through 2006. Figure 3.1-1 depicts the percent changed in GDP quarter over quarter from fourth quarter 2000 through flnrd quarter 2012. Five Page 5 o/ 5l City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element out of six quarters from fourth quarter 2007 to first quarter 2009 experienced ncgauve GDP and during second quarter 2005 through fourth quarter 2008 the contraction averaged around 1.5"/, per quarter during the period. Figure 3.1-1 GDP Change (SourceU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis) What is remarkable is that, even after such a prolonged and deep GDP contraction, growth has remained relatively modest:. No quarter has exceeded a one percent growth rate since the recovery began in second quarter 2009. 'Phis is true despite the most accommodative monetary policy in the history of the federal Rese,-r-e supporting record low interest rates. In the post WWII I era, most recoveries have been driven by strengthening residential real estate and labor markets. While the teal estate market is beginning to stabilize, robust growth across the economy and on a narional scde is still constrained by unemployment. Page 6 of 51 Percent Change in Quarterly GDP 2,00% 0,50% a�% —� � I_� �_ =o- - = 1111 � =�= _�- a ®.. .. ..err M ='= o — - - ➢- _�=�=�i�_ � �_� o 9 aoaoaaad ooa 00888 �.0000Y3gl48��0' daocr aaa ooadaaaa "aa oaoaaa8oa88o -o.so°o Louis .noose i sosc —_ _— What is remarkable is that, even after such a prolonged and deep GDP contraction, growth has remained relatively modest:. No quarter has exceeded a one percent growth rate since the recovery began in second quarter 2009. 'Phis is true despite the most accommodative monetary policy in the history of the federal Rese,-r-e supporting record low interest rates. In the post WWII I era, most recoveries have been driven by strengthening residential real estate and labor markets. While the teal estate market is beginning to stabilize, robust growth across the economy and on a narional scde is still constrained by unemployment. Page 6 of 51 City of Central Point Figure 3.1-2 Time Series Unemployment /source: US. Bureau of Labor Statistics) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element National Unemployment Rate 180 — 160- 140 120 —US Labor Forco 25- 25+Bachelors or M 100 - ao- 60- — — 4.0 2.0 0.a ggoagQas¢�ggo�44gd�oQq o�000 t �r E�inZ�wziY��41 z�.s ��'r`nz9 E �m z'°.�s �'m`zi i s�'m Figure 3.1-2 depicts the rapid increase in unemployment as a part of the recession. Unelnploement levels have peaked and are beginning to decline. Some of the decline is due to decreased participation in the labor force by die long-term unemplovcd. Figure 3.1-2 depicts the strong relationship between unemployment and educational attainment. "those .without a high school diploma have experienced unemployment rates that are nearly twice the national average and nearly four rimes that of individuals with a college education. However, the rate of unemployment has been dechning at a faster pace over the last two years for those without a high school diploma than for those witli a college education. Overall, unemployment tares remain at nearly twice the pre -recession levels. The Federal Reserve's two main objectives are to have healthy labor market and stable prices. hi an effort to address unemployment levels, the Federal Reserve has been aggressive in its monetary policy. This aggressive monetary policy has the potential to expand the econonm- and reduce unemployment but necessarily induces inflation risk. These monetary measures are depicted below in Figure 3.1-3. Page 7 o 51 City of Central Point Figure 3.1-3 Money Supply and Inflation (percent changes year over year) (Source: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, U.S. Federal Reserve Board) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element Money Supply and Inflation 1200%-- `- ---- -- -'--- - — 10.00% — —AVG CPI -U -1 1 _%M2 Change 4 8.00% — - — �PdY.(AVG CPI -U)- -Pd, (% M2 Change) , 6.00% 4.00% _ _ _—_.—.__ _—___...__— 2.00% 0.00% 911� 0 41 99� 1101190h 1110111,01 111_ Ile 1°'�] 11'1'1 1Is, 11 194, 101N� 1N9^ ^g90.�A�•' `L�ti�O^'��0�'ry�OA `L�C}`''L�O4j'1r�06 �V�O�'Y�O��L� `� �r�,• .2.00""/u -------'— Figure 3.1-3 depicts the consumer price index — urban (CPf-U) and uses triney supply (1\12 — the most commonly used measure of money supply) and the graph shows how these measures have varied over time. The two mcasures depict an inverse relationship up until the early 2000's. Since that time, the two measures have varied directly. Overall, it is somewhat remarkable that inflation over the last several pears has not been higher given [lie dramatic expansion of the monev supply. In December 2012 the Federal Reserve announced its intention to buy an additional $45 billion per month in treasuries for an extended period while simultaneously purchasing $40 billion per month in mortgage backed securities. Both of these measures will expand the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and expand the money supply. Continued economic weAncss and energy prices that have declined recently have kept inflation relatively stable. This raises the question: Where is all the money going and why is an expanded money supply not causing inflation? Macro economies arc necessarily demand driven. Thus in simple economic terms, expanded money supply may increase clemand rnaignially but is not likely to do so in proportion to the amount of monev supply expansion that has occurred on a national scale. So, the monetary policy should be causing a price adjustment also known as infation. Flowever, it is not. Figure 3.1-4 depicts the current account for the Unites States since the fourth quarter of 1980 and explains in no small part the answer to this phenomenon. Page 8 of 51 City of Central Point Figure 3.1-4 Current Account Time Series (inflation adjusted) (Source: U.S. Bureau or Economic Analysis) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element US Current Account (billions of $US) $50.00 $0.00 1, $`mmm" mmt$m &'Yd3'mm`"'fna mm ^mmm S'0 o000 s's 'ass $$'o o0 oa 0 0 0 o��o o�o�0 0000aooRaoo0 a e v M a r e M e n v e -$50.00 -$100.00 - -$150.00 -$200.00 -$250.00 The current account is primarily exports minus imports during the period reported.'- Up until 1998, the US generally ran relatively small current account deficits and had the occasional surplus. Since 1998, the current account deficits have become much larger. This trend is caused by large-scale trade imbalances that have sn-ucmrally impaired the U.S. economy. The recession actually had a positive effect on current account balance trends for a brief period, but the trend has again reversed over rhe last several vcars. Recently the U.S. has experienced expanded domestic energy production and this increase in supply has resulted in decreasing energy costs. The expanded energy supply has primarily resulted from advanced modern natural gas drilling techniques and medium term projections indicate this trend is likely to continue. Reduced energy costs from expanded domestic energy production have the potential of direct and indirect impacts on the current account. More domestic energy production mill reduce demand for foreign energy (such as oil from the itiliddle East) and this will have a direct positive impact on the current account. Reduced enerM prices reduce the cost of production resulting in lowered delivered prices and the potential to expand U.S. exports. Ultimately, at . the local level, there is not much that can be done about U.S. trade imbalances and the current account but local economies certainly can and do experience the repercussions of these national conditions. In addition to considering the above national economic measures, it's useful to consider the financial position of U.S. households when discussing trends. AMost economic growth results from some combination of household spending and business invesunent. Business investments are ultimately made The Currant Account calculated as CA=(S-AI) + NY + NC'I'. NY is net income from nbi,ad and ACP is net current transfer+. I'or the Unites State NY and NCP is i very small percentage of the current account. Page 9 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element by the people who own the businesses and those arc also households. The financial position of U.S. households is captured every three years by the Federal Reserve Board's survev of consumer finances. Figure 3.1-4 depicts data from the most recent survey in 2010 and shows household wealth over time by age group. Figure 3.1-4 Household Wealth (Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board- Survey of Consumer Finances) Figure 3.1-4 shows a bleak picture for U.S. Household wealth for younger American households. Net - worth for households aged 35-44 was 38`% less in 2010 than [:Ile previous low-water mark in 1992. Meanwhile, the graph shows that wealth for those 65 and over remains neat historic levels. 3.2 State Trends The State trends section examines technical and policy level dimensions of Oregon's economic trends. 3.2.1 Technical Review of Oregon Trends A quantitative way to examine state trends is to use a location quotient (LQ. The 1.Q compares the relative strength of industries for a geographic region in relation to the nation as a whole. The LQ can be conceptualized as a multiple for that industry. For example, if an indusny sector in the State of Oregon has an LQ of 2 then the concentration of that industry in Oregon Would exhibit twice the concentration of that industry in the national economy as a Whole and conversely if the LQ is 0.5 [lien the concentration of that industry would be half the concentration in the national economy. If an LQ is greater than one it indicates that the concentration is greater than the national average and if it is less than one then the conceutrauon is less than the national average. "Cable 3.2-1 depicts those industries in Oregon with at (east 1,000 employees that exhibit an LQ greater than 1.2 while Table 3.2-2 depicts those industries in Oregon with an LQ less than 0.80 with at least 1,000 emplwuccs. Those industries that are Page 10of51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element not depicted in either table are the vast majority of 3 -digit NAICS3 industries that are between 1.2 and 0.80 for which State concentrations are essentially the same as those found in rhe national economy as a whole. Table 3.2-1 Oregon Industries with LQ > 1.20 and Employment>1,000 (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) Industry Oregon LQ Statewide -- Employment NAICS 113 Forestry and logging 8.33 5,751 NAICS 321 Wood product manufacturing 4.62 19,285 NAICS 111 Crop production 3.86 25,420 NAICS 334 Computer and electronic product manufacturing 2.65 36,324 NAICS 115 Agriculture and forestry support activities 2.37 9,828 NAICS 813 Membership associations and organizations 1.73 28,321 NAICS 331 Primary metal manufacturing 1.64 7,906 NAICS 312 Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing 1.52 3,482 NAICS 511 Publishing industries, except Internet 1.51 13,969 NAICS 451 Sports, hobby, music instrument, book stores 1.37 9,884 NAICS 311 Food manufacturing 1.34 24,173 NAICS 551 Management of companies and enterprises 1.28 30,404 NAICS 425 Electronic markets and agents and brokers 1.26 13,198 NAICS 424 Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods 1.25 30,204 NAICS 112 Animal production and aquaculture 1.22 3,482 NAICS 454 Non -store retailers 1.22 6,476 NAICS 518 Data processing, hosting and related services 1.22 3,726 Oregon continues to be a leader in forestry and agriculture. While the Oregon economy- is much more diverse than it .was thirty years ago, forestry and agriculture still exhibit employment that is concentrated at many times the national average. In addition to foresm, and agriculture (and related industries) the source industry strengths in Oregon can be explained for many of the 3 -digit NAICS classifications. Computer and electronic product manufacturing is certainly due in no small part to the presence of Intel and'Fektronix in the Portland area. Primary metal manufacturing is concentrated as a result of the continued operation of Oregon's aluminum indusmY. Non -store retailers such as Harry and David contribute to the strengrh in that industry sector. Beverage manufacturing is likely explained from the strong and growing mine and craft beer industries in Oregon. Other sectors are more difficult to explain. For example, the strength in membership organizations and associations is not explained by am- reason intrinsic to geographic region as to why this industry sector 3 NAICS = North Amcdczn Industrial Classificttiun System Page 11 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element would benefit from being located in Oregon. It is also not expluned by the presence of any one large dominant membership association that happens to he located in Oregon. Similarly, the publishing industry sector is one where there is no obvious large company that contributes to the concentration of those industries nor is there anv large intrinsic geographic benefit from operating that type of industry in Oregon versus somewhere else. Oregon's attraction, where not otherwise eNplainable, is sometimes attributecl to its quality of life that influences those who make decisions on where certain firms will locate. Table 3.2-2 Oregon Industries with LQ < 0.80 and Employment > 1,000 (Source: Bureau o/ Labor Statistics) Industry Oregon LQ Statewide -- Employment NAICS 512 Motion picture and sound recording industries 0.78 3,525 NAICS 541 Professional and technical services 0.77 73,254 NAICS 314 Textile product mills 0.71 1,036 NAICS 481 Air transportation 0.69 3,919 NAICS 814 Private households 0.68 5,406 NAICS 221 Utilities 0.66 4,492 NAICS 446 Health and personal care stores 0.66 8,035 NAICS 336 Transportation equipment manufacturing 0.62 10,747 NAICS 517 Telecommunications 0.61 6,704 NAICS 326 Plastics and rubber products manufacturing 0.58 4,551 NAICS 315 Apparel manufacturing 0.57 1,078 NAICS 212 Mining, except oil and gas 0.56 1,479 NAICS 335 Electrical equipment and appliance mfg. 0.52 2,349 NAICS 523 Securities, commodity contracts, investments 0.48 4,878 NAICS 325 Chemical manufacturing 0.37 3,565 Table 3.2-2 depicts those industries where Oregon has low relative concerniations. Several of the industries in which Oregon has low concentrations of employment are unsurprising. Chemical manufacturing and plastics and rubber manufacturing arc unsurprising because these m6usnies tend to cluster around petroleum and natural gas production centers with access to major international ports; no such arrangement exists in Oregon. Portland hucrnationd Airport . is the State's largest airport but is not a major huh for any of the national carriers or ,in freight handlers, therefore air transportation would not be expected to be a strong industry in Oregon. Oregon does not produce significant amounts of cotton nor is it proximate to synthetic fabric resources that are petroleum based and, therefore, it is not expected that Oregon would be strong in those industry sectors. 'fhere is one industry sector in which Oregon has a low concentration that is problematic but may also represent a significant opportunity for the State. This sector is Securities, commodity contracts, investments. Cermin major metropolitan areas such as New York Cite, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Atlanta and Houston already hire high concentrations in these sectors and some of their Page 12 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element comparative advantages would be expected to endure from the existing concentrations of intellectual capital and infrastructure. However, the digital world has reduced or cluninated many barriers to operation of these types of industries in smaller metropolitan areas. For example, well-known Berkshire - Hathaway is based in Omaha, Nebraska with a population of less than half a million people. It is unknown whether this weakness will eventually become a sector of strength in Oregon, but it is worth recognizing indusn-c sectors that are relatively sparse in Oregon but which represent an area for potential growth. In addition to specific industry strengths, Oregon's generally fairs well when its relative economic position is compared to other states. 'Fable 3.2-3 depicts Oregon's national ranking across a range of economic indicators. Table 3.2-3 Selected Economic Indicator Comparisons (Ranking is out of 50 States plus the District of Columbia) (Source. see data description column) Selected Ranking Data Data Description Category Educational 18 29 2% Census data from 2009, ranking based upon Attainment percentage with bachelor's or higher degree Median Household 21 $51,862 Census Data from 2010-2011 Income Business Climate 20 281 Composite Score by Site Selection Magazine Data from Council on State Taxation; Ernst & State and Local 1 o 3.5 /e Young Report 2011, Data is State Business Taxes taxes as a percent of private sector Gross State Product Entrepreneurship 5 1.93 University of Nebraska Entrepreneurship Index Index 2010 From an educational attainment perspective, Oregon ranks 1811' of the 50 states+, for residents with at least a bachelor's degree. Figure 3.1-2 above depicts the strong relationship between unemplovment and college degree attainment and therefore Oregon's respectable ranking in this arca bodes well from a labor market fundamentals perspective. The median household income is ranked 21,1 which is also respectable and arguably ideal; being near the top of median income is not necessarih- ideal because it can cause localized inflation that can result in disproportionate impacts on households on the lower ends of the income spectrum. Similarly, Oregon is given a ranking of 20i1` by Sile Seleclion magazine, a periodical targeted at those in the industrial, large office space, and campus development pattern real estate markets. There are other areas where Oregon ranks high. Oregon is tied with North Carolina as the states with the lowest overall state and local tax rates on businesses; State of Oregon tax revenues ret- heavily on the personal income tax. Local property taxes arc limited by Measure 30 which covers all real estate types Includes District of Columbia Page 13 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element including commercial and industrial. In combivanon, this structure resutrs in low overall business taxes in Oregon. Business formation hes historically provided the greatest potential for job creation. Oregon has risen from the bottom 20% of states to number 5 in the entrepreneurship index published by the University of Nebraska. Entrepreneurship creates new businesses and new businesses produce new jobs. The rise in Oregon's ranking on this index is arguably the single most encouraging signal for improvement in the Oregon economy. 3.2.2 Statewide Economic Development ']'here are number of efforts at the statewide level that arc directed at economic development in Oregon. Some of these arc the result of direct State of Oregon investments. '1'hc State of Oregon has expended significant resources and placed policy emphasis on education, innovation to support knowledge-based economic growth, and infrastructure. Example investments that are likely to affecr Oregon's economy ovcrthe next twenty years include: • Oregon Nanoscience and Mierotechnologies Institute (ONAMI): ONAMI's collection of laboratories and researchers include the Lorry 1. Lokey Nanotechnology Laboratories in Eugene, an internationally -recognized facility with more than 20 advanced materials characterization and nanofalmcadon instruments; micro -level manufacturing and engineering research at the Nlictoproducts Breakthrough Institute in Corvallis; and the Center for Flectron Microscopy and Natrofabrication in Portland. • Oregon Built Environment and Sustainable Technologies Center (BEST): Oregon BFST connects the state's building industry to its shared network of university, tabs at Portland State University, the Oregon Institute of Technology, Oregon State University and the University of Oregon. • Oregon Translational Research and Drug Development Institute (OTRADI): OT1tAD1 has unique "high dhroughpui` facilities at Portland State University that provide university researchers and small biotech companies with access to cutting edge drug discovery equipment and expertise, speeding up research and allowing companies to compete in the biotech sector. • Connect Oregon: Connect Oregon has now completed is fourth round of infrastructure project funding and most of rhe Connect Oregon 1II projects are complete or nearing completion. Connect Oregon is a grant program that supports transportation infrastructure investments that serve dual purposes to support: intermodal transportation connections that arc expected to result in additional direct economic development. This program has supported airports, rail transportatini and nuarime porn nhfrastructure throughout the State 7'he Port of Portland and Port of Coos 13ay have benefitted especially from the program as these two ports ,it Oregon's gateways to world markets for goods too heavy to ship by air. • Oregon Learns: 40-40-20 Plan: Oregon, like all states, invests heavily in education. From an economic development perspective, education investments arc ultimately workforce development. Orcgon has set a goal to have 40 percent ofits population with at least a college Page 14 0/ 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element degree, 40 percent of its population to have ar ]east an associate degree/ technical certificate and 20 percent with a high school diploma. This is an aggressive target and would require roughly a doubling of higher education through -put and high school drop-out elimination. Even significant progress toward this goal would result in a markedly more capable workforce and one that would result in a more productive workforce. • Business Energy Tax Credit (BETC): 'I he business energy tax credit system resulted in mane large investments in renewable energy over the last ten years. At the present time, these tax credit opportunities have been markedly pared back, however much of the infrastructure built over the last ten hears- will continue to supply energy and jobs for support and on-going maintenance. In addition to direct state investments, there are other entities and efforts that have the potential to affect economic conditions in Oregon. The most prominent of these is Oregon Health and Science Universit-. Healthcare is an expanding industry* in the United States and healthcare training and research are important to meeting future demand. OFISU creates opportunities for Oregon to maintain a competitive position in this sector on a regional and national level. Other economic development activities in Oregon have centered on entrepreneurship. Business formation is one of the best potential sources of job and wealth creation. However, business formation is a high risk venture. Entities such as the Oregon Entrepreneurs Network and Oregon Angel Fund have formed to address the capital and knowledge needs of entrepreneurs and small fast-groNving companies. Creating a cultural environment to support new business creation and the groo¢h of irunovatic-e companies can reduce risk and increase successful outcomes. 3.3 Economic Outlook and Implications for Central Point It's challenging to summarize the broad national and state economic trends and then distill them down in a manner that provides meaningful guidance at the local level for a community such as Central point. This general truth is made more acute by current conditions in the national econonn- which has relatively extreme positive and negative forces at work. The strong positive forces include near record low interest rates, a large and young population that will be entering the workforce and which is relatively well educated, significant available production capacity, reduced energy- prices, ovaiiable capacity in the labor market, and an improving real estate sector. Strong negative forces include large trade imbalances, a Federal Reserve balance sheet that is growing at an unprecedented rate, large Federal budget deficits that must confront increasing entitlement costs against a backdrop of political stalemate, health care cost increases that threaten the broader economy; and immigration policy and mnagernent that has caused large-scale labor market distortions. At a state level, the economic drivers and economic development activities tend to be Portland centric and related to the Willamette Vallev more broadly. The irony is that the local economy tends to be influenced as much by the California economy as it is by the economic activity in Portland specifically and the overall Oregon economy more generally-. The California economy is so diversified and represents such a large share of the national economy' that the condition of the California economy tends to vary relatively directly with the condition of the national economv and the improving real estate market in California should support some economic recovery these. Page 15 o/ 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element The City of Central point has no direct control and relatively little influence on the trajectory of the national and west -coast economics. Given elle extreme forces at work at the national level, predicting future economic conditions involves high levels of uncertainty. Thus, for local land use planning purposes, the pendent approach is to plan for economic growth chat: would be expected to accrue through modest economic improvement from current conditions and that improvement is most likely to come through a combination of proportional sharing of improved national conditions as well as specific growth in industries for which Central point is well positioned. This can and should include identification of targeted opportunities for growth specific to Central Point and the same is required by the Goal 9 Wile. 3.4 Regional and Local Trends This section focuses on Jackson Coumv and Central Point economic conditions and trends. More localized analysis provides greater insight into local econonic dynamics and Illuminates economic opportunities. The analysis relics upon information From a number of sources including the Bm�eau of Labor Statistics (Bl_,S), the Bureau of liconornic Analysis (BEA), Oregon Labor iblarket ]nfonnation Shstem (OI„M1S), and the Census Bureau. Generally, the employment and business data presented in the Economic Elcircm heron is based on the CounnV geography, Detailed employment and business data for the City proper can be obtained using the ES -202 data set from the Oregon Employment Departrncne. However, this data set is confidential and disclosure of the data is restricted. This is not a problem in larger cities where more businesses are present so that most of the major trends can stall be analyzed without creating conhidentialiry conflicts. I-Iowever, in smaller communities a `small numbers problem" arises that limits the quantitative value of the data. 'These data restrictions can further impair the qualitative component of the Economic Element. This can cause results where data limitations restrict qualitative analysis and evaluation of economic dynamics that are well Imown in the community. Consider a small high growth company in a small town that is the on}c major employer in that sector, like the clairy products manufacturing sector for example. This- small, but very interesting company is likely to have their employment data Bagged as confidential in the ES -202 reporring. This creatcs a paradox where the reason for wanting to analyze that company on a qualitative level is because of its employment growth but maintenance of the required confidentiality precludes this discussion. . To avoid this paradox, the quantitative components of the employment and business data rely on county -level data and the more specific community analysis is based upon known business presence in the planning area. 3.4.1 Demographics Economics and demographics are interrelated phenomena. Tile causal relationships between the two phenomena is a source of vigorous academic debate, but for purposes of land use planning, all that must. be understood is that demographics and economics vary directly, i.e. population increases, employment increases. Demographics represent two components of the economy — the labor Force on the production side and households on the consumption side. Aggregate consumption varies directly with the number of horucholels and their associated populations. Central Point's prior Economic Element characterizes Central Point as a "bedroom community" in making observations that there is a relatively small amount of employment and commercial retail services actually located in Cental Point . in proportion to the City's Page 16 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element population. Flavnhg balance between commercial retail and population is especially important from a local governance perspective in Oregon. Commerciat lands tend to demand relatively few municipal services bur have the highest land valuations and therefore produce the highest levels of general fund revenue through property, taxes for a Cite. Residential populations demand considerable municipal services but produce comparatively less in property taxes. Demograpluc relationships to the economy are highly localized. Understanding local demographics provides excellent insights into localized economic forces. The Census Bureau provides detailed information on local demographics. Figure 3.4-1 Population Pyramid (SourceU.S. Census Bureau) "The population pyramid for the City of Central Point depicts a typical shape for a non -university town. The "gap" in residents aged 20-24 exists in most every non -university- town because this is the age where a segment of the population leaves to attend college or obtain employment elsewhere. Central Point's population is somewhat less top-heavy than the nation as a whole or the Counn- as whole; fewer people aged 65 and older live in Central Point. Thus, even though the region experiences high levels of retiree relocation that does not appear to be the case in Central Point, although the Twin Creeks project may expand the upper levels of the pyramid over the nest few years. Central Point has a large percentage of families with working -age individuals aged 30-50 and their children under the age of 14. Proportionally, Central Point has higher levels of working age individuals than the population as whole that represents a strong labor base that have families and will demand education semces. Fewer retirees will result in lower overall levels of demand for medical services and fewer transfer payments into the local. economy through Social Security and Medicare. Page 17 or 51 City or Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element On the national leVcl, unemploVnIent rates vary by cducatioual attainment and this relationship tends to be reflected in local labor markets as well. Thus, an examination of educational attainment in Central Poinris valuable when considcriug the local labor market. Page 18 o/ 51 City of Central Point Table 3.4-1 Education Attainment by Age Group (Source: U S. Census Bureau) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element Overall, the educational attainment of Central Point residents compares favorably with Jackson Counn-. However, neither the City of Central Point nor Jackson County compass favorably with Oregon as a whole. For working people aged 25-64, Oregon has approximately ten percent more residents with a bachelor's degree or higher when compared to both Jackson Count° and Central Point. Most of this differential is not the result of high school diplomacy; the rate of high school diplomacy is essentially the same for people aged 25-64 for Oregon, Jackson County and Central Point. The Central Point data does depict a cause for concern in the population aged 18-24. The rate of the population with less than a high school diploma is a full ten percent less than for Oregon and is five percent less than for Jackson Counn-. A difference of 10 percent is essentially 146 more young adults «dthout a high school education. Unemployment rates tend to be almost twice as high for those without a high school diploma so this data may signal some new socia challenges for the City that as not present in the City's current population, such as increased crime and/or demands for social assistance. Because retail commercial businesses sell goods ro households, the need for retail commercial generally varies with population growth. Thus, it is reasonable and appropriate from both a municipal services standpoint and a Goal 9 standpoint to plan for retail connnercial lands in relation to projected population growth. 'I'he planned population growth for Central Point is governed by Jackson County's coordinated population forecast as contained in the Jackson County Comprehensi%-e Plan. The Jackson County Comprehensive Plan forecasts that Central Point will have a population of 27,410 people by 2033 which equates to a 2.05 percent annual average growth rate from 2013 to 2033. Page 19 of 51 Jackson Central Education by Age Oregon County Point Population 18 to 24 years 358,370 17,203 1,464 Less than high school graduate 16.60% 19.70% 26.60% High school graduate (includes equivalency) 31.40% 37.20% 38.50% Some college or associate's degree 44.10% 38.70% 30.90% Bachelor's degree or higher 7.90% 4.40% 4.00% Population 25 to 34 years 517,603 23,369 2,437 High school graduate or higher 87.70% 85.00% 83.50% Bachelor's degree or higher 30.00% 21.10% 22.60% Population 35 to 44 years 501,819 23,304 2,240 High school graduate or higher 88.60% 87.50% 90.40% Bachelor's degree or higher 31.90% 21.20% 17.80% Population 45 to 64 years 1,037,164 58,712 3,611 High school graduate or higher 91.40% 92.50% 93.40% Bachelor's degree or higher 29.80% 25.60% 19.20% Population 65 years and over 522,578 34,993 2,483 High school graduate or higher 85.20% 85.80% 82.00% Bachelor's degree or higher 23.60% 23.80% 13.50% Overall, the educational attainment of Central Point residents compares favorably with Jackson Counn-. However, neither the City of Central Point nor Jackson County compass favorably with Oregon as a whole. For working people aged 25-64, Oregon has approximately ten percent more residents with a bachelor's degree or higher when compared to both Jackson Count° and Central Point. Most of this differential is not the result of high school diplomacy; the rate of high school diplomacy is essentially the same for people aged 25-64 for Oregon, Jackson County and Central Point. The Central Point data does depict a cause for concern in the population aged 18-24. The rate of the population with less than a high school diploma is a full ten percent less than for Oregon and is five percent less than for Jackson Counn-. A difference of 10 percent is essentially 146 more young adults «dthout a high school education. Unemployment rates tend to be almost twice as high for those without a high school diploma so this data may signal some new socia challenges for the City that as not present in the City's current population, such as increased crime and/or demands for social assistance. Because retail commercial businesses sell goods ro households, the need for retail commercial generally varies with population growth. Thus, it is reasonable and appropriate from both a municipal services standpoint and a Goal 9 standpoint to plan for retail connnercial lands in relation to projected population growth. 'I'he planned population growth for Central Point is governed by Jackson County's coordinated population forecast as contained in the Jackson County Comprehensi%-e Plan. The Jackson County Comprehensive Plan forecasts that Central Point will have a population of 27,410 people by 2033 which equates to a 2.05 percent annual average growth rate from 2013 to 2033. Page 19 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 3.4.2 Wages and Employment Households have three sources of income: wages, investments, and transfer paymarts. For most working -age households, wages are the source of the vast majority of income I-Iousehold income is returned to the econotnp in the form of household consutnption, taxes and investments. Thus, wages and anploymenr have significant implications for am, economy. Figure 3.4-1 Employment Trends (Source: Oregon Labor Market Intormation System— OLMIS; total covered wage employment) Jackson County Employment and Pay Trends 9,000 80,000—A, 0000 —EmploYmant —Average Pey($) , 70,000 — 5x,000 5,000. QaDo 30,000 31000 2001 2002 M03 2000 2005 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 3.4-1 depicts average pay in Jackson County in absolute dollars and the overall level of employment. Finployment levels dropped draumtically as a result of the recession in 2008. 'Phis differential translates into appioximateh, $1325 million less wages circl9ting in the Jackson County economy currently than was circulating in 2007. In trough numhets, this means the economy of Jackson County is about 10 percent smaller in absolute dollars Currently than it was in 2007. However, for those who have remained employed during the recession, absolute wages have increased at the smile pace and were not interrupted by due recession at all. Some of this trend may be the result of changes in productivity. For example, the same workers mat, he doing more work for only marginally more compensation. Also, new technology implementation may, have increased productivity such that average compensation has been able to rise without the need to hire additional workers. Inflation has been held in check during this period and thus it would appear that average compensation increases have kept pace with inflation during rhe period. 'I lit Census collects detailed data on employment during the decennial census. 'I'his data provides insights into umastries in which the residents of Central Point are employed and the relative compensation across industries. The Census data reports the residents' employment data and is not a census of businesses and employment within Cenn:al point itself. However, matching regionally strong industries with the existing residents employment characteristics is an logical economic development strategy. Page 20 of 51 City of Central Point Table 3.4-2 City of Central Point Residents' Full-time Employment and Earnings (Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2010 Census) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element Industry/Subject Oregon Jackson County Central Point % % Oregon Oregon Median Median Median Median Median Total Earnings Total Earnings Earnings Total Earnings Earnings Full-time, year-round civilian employed 1,096,784 $40,724 54,242 $35,288 867% 5,505 $32,952 80.9% population 16 years and over Agriculture, forestry, 35,774 $29791 1,210 $37,736 126.7% 63 $17,386 58.4% fishing and hunting Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 1402 $48,431 152 $45,104 93.1% 40 $37,174 76.8% Construction 78,418 $43,790 3,718 $41483 94.7% 707 $35,013 800% Manufacturing 164,921 $44,444 6,203 $33,027 74.3% 597 $34,122 76.8% Wholesale trade 43,538 $43,434 1,550 $42.847 98.6% 164 $42,917 98.8% Retail trade 127,169 $31,543 9,137 $30,800 97.6% 1,006 $26,607 90.7% Transportation and 43,987 $46,791 2,671 $4,756 96.7% 386 $55,205 118.0% warehousing Utilities 12,662 $61,310 390 $53472 87.2% 41 $58,417 111.6% Information 24,265 $45,946 1,213 $43,349 .94.3% 65 $34,234 745% Finance and insurance 55,976 $46,534 2,237 $39,339 84.5% 187 $29,632 63.7% Real estateand rental 25,691 $39.036 1,171 $33,059 84.7% 42 $22,885 58.6% and leasing Professional, scientific, 70,242 $56,823 2,486 $40,938 72.0% 33 $82,031 144.4% and technical services Management of companies and 1,263 $57.585 70 $59,113 102.7% 0 - - enteryrises Administrative and support and waste 36,960 $30,411 1,976 $29,579 97.3% 336 $16,597 546% management services Educational services 64,251 $44,176 2,241 $42,936 97.2% 214 $42,333 95.6% Health care and social 131,582 $37,454 8,109 $34,881 93.1% 727 $40,091 107.0% assistance Arts, entertainment, and 17,133 $32439 925 $28,043 86.4% 54 $30,172 93.0% recreation Accommodation and 50,308 $21,602 3,138 $18,852 87.3% 207 $17,802 82.4% food services Other services, except 44,973 $32,332 2,743 $31,021 959% 375 $17,355 53.7% public administration Public administration 66,269 $52,501 2,902 $51763 986% 261 $53,552 102.0% The numbers in the far right column depicted in black bold typeface are the industries where Central Point residents earn 100 percent or more than the statewide median. in terms of large differentials, onh one industry has significant number of employees and pays significantly higher wages than the statewide average. That indasl is transportation and warehousing. Jackson Counq- has a structural advantage in Page 21 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element the transportation industry because California does not allow triple traders and Oregon does. 1'Ihis recluires loads to be reshuffled in Jackson Counrp. Also, mamT wars ago a company called rlttaway grew into a relatively large truck brokerage in Ni Ledford. Ultimately, the enterprise failed but not by reason of an unsound business model and conscc{uendy, individuals who gained experience in the indusfrp started their own Firms and a cluster of truck brokerage businesses has existed in Jackson County ever since. 'these are both factors that have demonstrated durable comparative advantages in eke transportation and warehousing industry itiJackson County and these advantages have translated into wages that are much higher than the statewide median in that industry for Central Point residents of whom approximately 386 are emploved in that sector. Conversely, retail trade is depicted in red bold IXpeface because of its relarivcllow wages in Central point. 'pypically, retail wages are somewhere near the middle across all industries but tend to be relatively competitive across geographies. For example, the Jackson County median is only slightly less than the statewide median. Flowever, Central point's median is almost ten percent below the statewide median and is over seven percent Icss than the Jackson County median. Because of the competitive compensation su:uCure within this industry sector, retail may represent an opportunity to grow wages if Central Point can increase its retail employment base. Table 3.4-3 State of Oregon Employment Forecast for Jackson and Josephine County (Source: Oregon Employment Department - OLMIS) Sector 2010 2020 Net Increase Total payroll employment 99,610 113,960 14,350 14% Total private 83,910 97,640 13,730 16% Educational and health services 16,670 20,800 4,130 25% Trade, transportation, and utilities 22,280 25,320 3,040 14% Leisure and hospitality 11,250 12,760 1,510 13% Professional and business services 8,220 9,690 1,470 18 Manufacturing 8,330 9,590 1260 15% Construction 3,640 4,290 650 18% Financial activities 5,120 5,690 570 11 Other services 3,470 3,990 520 15% Natural resources and mining 2,930 3,370 440 15% Information 2,010 2,160 150 7% Government 15,700 16,320 620 4% 3.4,3 Workforce Commuting Patterns 'Il:avel to and from work is essentially a labor force cost. 'Che longer and more expensive the commute the higher the wage must be to justify the travel costs. Thus, it is useful to consider commuting patterns When evaluating labor force conditions. Page 22 of 51 City of Central Point Table 3.4-4 Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns (Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element Worker Travel Information Jackson Central (workers 16 years and over) Oregon County Point MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION TO WORK Car, truck, or van 82.7% 86.5% 93.8% Drove alone 72.0% 76.8% 86.0% Carpooled 10.8% 9.7% 7.8% Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 4.2% 0.9% 0.0% Walked 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% Bicycle 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means 1,0% 1.0% 0.2% Worked at home 6.1% 6.7% 2.7% TRAVEL TIME TO WORK Less than 10 minutes 17.5% 20.6% 21.8% 10 to 14 minutes 16.9% 22.2% 29.7 15 to 19 minutes 16.5% 19.3% 24.7% 20 to 24 minutes 15.0% 15.2% 11.2% 25 to 29 minutes 5.9% 5.0% 3.4% 30 to 34 minutes - 11.9% 8.8% 5.5% 35 to 44 minutes 5.4% 3.3% 1.8% 45 to 59 minutes 5.6% 2.9% 0.4.% 60 or more minutes - 5.3% 2.7% 1.6 Mean travel time to work (minutes) 22.1 18.4 14.8 PLACE OF WORK Worked in state of residence 97.8% 98.8% 99.5% Worked in county of residence 77.5% 94.9% 97.7% Worked outside county of residence 20.3% 3.9% 1.8% Worked outside state of residence 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% Living in a place 79.4% 74.3% 100.0% Worked in place of residence 38.6°/ 3T8% 21.0% Worked outside place of residence 40.8% 36.5% 79,0% Not living in a place 20.6% 25.7% 0.0% Central Point exhibits a somewhat unique combination of commuting patterns. Tvpicalh-, cities that have a low percentage of its residents working within the cin- also have relauveh. high commute times. That is not the case for Central Point. Central Point has only 21 percent of its residents who work in Central Point but Central Point residents have much shorter than average commute times when compared to statewide and countywide averages. The logical explanation for this unusual data relationship is that high percentages of Central Point residents work in north Medford which in many cases is right across the Page 23 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element street or they work in White Citi which is proximal and can be accessed via relatively uncongested sections of Interstate 5 and 'fable Rock Road. Given (lie short commute times reported in the census data, this indicates thar Central Point is well positioned to provide labor that is effectively less expensive than the regional or statewide workforces. Cenrxal Point is in fact central in relation to the regional jobs. 3.4.4 Economic Development Context Tn addition to the quantitative measures, Goal 9 encourages cities to consider the qualitative baits of their local economics to support future economic clevelopmait and cmployment growth. These qualitative rmits are evaluated below through a simple S\CLOT assessment (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and 'I'hreats). Table 3.4-5 SWOT Evaluation of Central Point Economic Context (Souxecity of central Point) fir Relatively low percentage of If relative wages Failure to large retail to can be increased capture Location Size and Buying Power population. Relatively low per- modestly Central proportional of MarketsStatewide and household income Point can capitalize growth over national exposure on expanding time; especially with specialtypopulation. ' will require a in specialty foods cluster. regional Economic foods. ' If Central Point can Capitalizing on - Direct ,'Few large employers add a few larger' - ' communication located in Central employers in. one this opportunity Economic Development Efforts and collaboration Point Limits role in' sector then it can ' will require a and Programs between City staff regional Economic drive economic. coordinated ' and local Development Policy development policy strategy with . businesses. and Agenda setting. and agenda in that implementable actions. area. Growth around Expansion to Exit Exit 35 needs to Central Point has 35 would add an accomplish freeway access Central Point -5 additional Freeway economic Transportation Facilities and good access Interchange (Exit 33) interchange and development to the regional is an old design with g opportunities for Priorities without network limited capacity. key industries to threatening the locate there. function of the interchange (Exit 35). Page 24 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element Central Point takes a practical - approach to its Public Facilities and Services public facility needs and requirements. - Central Point's water supply is via contract with Medford Water Commission and sewage treatment is via the Regional Water Reclamation Facility Operated by Medford all under negotiable long-term agreements. Central Point should continue to have adequate capacity to serve future employment demands. - Maintaining a good relationship with Medford is important to avoid any service agreement disputes. Central Point's Advocate for workforce has There are limited training and access to Rogue post -graduate programs that High school drop Community degree opportunities directly benefit outs have limited Workforce Development College; Southern and no research Central Point employability Oregon university in the employers. and demand University; the region. High school Support local disproportionate Job Council and drop -outs have schools to minimize services. other training limited employability. high school drop - programs. out rates. The completion of RPS makes Regulatory delay possible RPS is just recently Capitalize on the to complete employment adopted and some opportunity for planning Regulatory Barriers growth in the Tole implementation targeted processes to area to capitalize requires additional employment growth make the Tolo on the planning work. in the Tole area. area market advantages it ready. presents. 3.4.5 Regional Competitiveness planning for economic development should be supported by= an understanding of the region's competitive position. As a general rule, emplo'vers make locational decisions based upon a region's compettive position for their specific industry and then make specific choices between communities witlun the region based upon localized factors. Thus, identifying industries in which the region can be competitive is important to develop land use policies and strategies to capture econounic development potential for which Jackson County is well positioned. There are several quantitative measures that can be used to assess the relative strength of industry sectors hvitiin a region. Two commonly used measures are shift -share and location quotient (LQ). These measures emphasize different economic phenomena. The LQ compares the relative strength of industries for a geographic region in relation to the nation as it whole. The LQ can be conceptualized as a multiple for that industry. For example, if an industry sector in the State of Oregon has an LQ of 2 then the concentration of that industry in Oregon would exhibit twice the concentration of that industry in the national economy as a whole and converseh- if the LQ is 0.3 then the concentration of that industm would be half the concentration in the national econoun-. If an LQ is greater one it indicates Page 25 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element that the concentration is greater than the national average and if it is less than one then the concentration is less than the national average. '17he LQ is a snapshot in time and does not reflect changes over time. 'Ihe shift -share measures the degree to which an industry sector has ourperformed the nation as a whole within that industry's emplovment levels during a specified time period. If an industry has grown nationally in relation to other sectors, such as healthcare over the last teal tears, but the regional growth has remained static within the indusn-y then here will he a zcro shift -share percentage. if the regional growth outpaced the change in national share then there would be a positive shift -share A positive shift - share could even be depicted where the nation as a whole loses absolute employment vs. the regional share. For example, if manufacturing employment decreased during the period analvzcd but the regional economy held a constant nuuhufaeturing employrirent base during the period this would result in a positive shift -share. Table 3.4-6 Jackson County Shift -Share Analysis (2001-2011) (Source: Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project) NAICS Industry Sector Percent Shift Compared to National Growth Net Employment from Shift Total Employment 31-33 Manufacturing 9.88 865 2510 55 Management of Comp. & E. 55.43 463 2038 51 Information 19.38 437 452 52 Finance & Insurance 12.38 392 6057 111-112 Farm 12.41 362 6388 62 Health Care & Social Asst. 2.9 353 15851 48-49 Trans. & Warehousing 10.2 299 3013 92 Slate Government 2.37 57 1783 NA Unreported 0.28 8 3857 61 Educational Services 0.15 2 6226 928 Federal Military -4.51 -27 5715 71 Arts, Ent., & Rec. -3.47 -97 968 92 Federal, Civilian -6.44 -109 5796 113-114 Forestry, Fishing, & Other -6.63 -126 1513 54 Prof. & Tech. Services -4.6 -225 15462 21 Mining -97.65 -249 3418 53 Real Estate, Rent. & Leasing -7.13 -314 9066 81 Other Services -8.89 -536 6644 23 Construction -8.12 -553 1806 56 Admin. & Waste Services -11.1 -567 603 92 Local Government -9.55 -688 2512 72 Accom. & Food Services -9.33 -741 7590 44-45 Retail Trade -5.69 -923 2794 TOTAL -1.82 -1,919 112,062 Page 26 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element The region outperformed the nation from 2001 to 2011 in seven industries that have resulted in significant relative employment growth during the period. Mauagement of companies and enterprises has the highest percent gain in employment relative to the nation during the period 2001 through 2011. Manufacturuig has experienced the strongest shift in terms of total employment relative to the national economv. If an industry sector has out -performed in a shift -share analysis and the concentration within that industry also exceeds national averages in an LQ analvsis, then those industries are likely to be ones for which the region has exhibited durable comparative advantages. The below table depicts industries in bold red italics that have an industry concentration greater than 1.2 tunes the national average and are also within an broader industry sector in Table 3.4-6 where growth has outpaced the national rate from 2001 to 2011. Mato, of these industry sectors are those that have been historically strong in Jackson County. Porestry and wood products ntanufacntring and agriculture and food products manufacturing have historically been strong industries in Jackson County and they remain so. Due to its role as the regional service center, Jackson County continues to exhibit strength in several healthcare industries. Other areas of strength in the region have developed more recently such as truck transportation and support industries for transportation. These are somewhat newer indusirics and have grown in prominence in the regional economv over the last ten vears. Similarly, management of Companies and Enterprises is a category that did not even exist on the prior classification system (Standard Industry Classification or SIC). This classification involves employment in companies that run other types of smaller companies. The employment in this category is relatively large regionally given the somewhat remote location of the region and the levels of expertise that would typically be required in this type of industry; this mail be explained by quahn< of life and amenity- concentrations in the area Page 27 of 51 City of Central Point Table 3.4-7 Jackson County Location Quotient Analysis (Red Italics — indicate industries that also exhibited a positive shift -share) (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element North American Industrial Classification W Employment NAICS 454 Nonslore retailers NAICS 113 Forestry and logging NAICS 321. Wood product manufacturing 8.89 7.49 7.27 2230 245 1436 NAICS 115 Agriculture and forestry support activities 4.89 961 NAICS 111 Crop production 2.39 746 NAICS 711 Performing arts and spectator sports 2.38 558 NAICS 515 Broadcasting, except Internet - - NAICS 484 Truck transportation NAICS 519 Other information services 1.92 1.75 1.71 322 1338 156 NAICS 451 Si hobby, music instrument, book stores 1.66 566 _NAICS 323 Ppnting and related support.activities 1.54 _ 425 NAICS 813 Membership associations and organizations 1.51 1171 NAICS 488 Support activities for transportation 1.47 485 NAICS 441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers NAICS 533 Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets 1.38 1.34 1370 19 NAICS 622 Hospitals -' - " „ 1.33 3668 NAICS 452 General merchandise stores NAICS 443 Electronics and appliance stores 1.33 1.32 2412 409 NAICS 623 Nursing'and residential care facilities - 1:32 2452 NAICS 445 Food and beverage stores NAICS 447 Gasoline stations 1.31 1.31 2176 636 NAICS 517 Telecommunications - - 1:3 670 NAICS 562 Waste management and remediation services 1,29 275 NAICS 621 Ambulatory health care services, NAICS 311 Food manufacturing - NAICS 551 Management of companies and enterprises 1.29 1.25 1.21. 4659 1065 f361 3.4.6 City of Central Point Competitive Position Summary When all the regional and localized factors arc synthesized, there appear to be at least four target indust}' sectors where the Cit) of Cential Point may exhibit . it srsong and durable competitive position: • 'I lie specially foods cluster that includes Lillie Belle Farms- chocolates, Rogue Creamer, and the nearb, Seven Oaks Firin just outside Central Point's municipal boundary represents it small but unique opportunity for growth. • Truck transportation and related support industries pay high wages to Cinr residents and is a sector that both the Region and the Cite are well positioned to seise. • Planned population growth in Cental Point in the regional plan is expected to support expanded retail commercial within the Ciry, ns the buying power of the City's residential base expands. Page 28 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element • Planned population growth is also likely to support expanded healthcare services in the Cirn. Overall, this sector is expected to grow rapidly within the region. Existing investments in the City of Medford hospitals are likely to concentrate much of the regional growth in that geographic area, but Central Point has an opportunih� to keep pace with overall regional growth in the sector. Central Point also has some unique spatial characteristics that may support future economic activities in two other sectors due to the adoption of the RPS plan. Specifically, there are Wregate employment uses and Erickson Air Crane that are located within the Tolo Urban Reserve Areas. These are both employer types yvith special needs, but the areas inclusion in the RPS Plan may present opportunities to work with these employers for mutual benefit. 4 Land Demand This section of the Economic Element projects the Cin, of Central Point's long term (20 -year) and short term (5 -year) supply of needed sites for employment land. OAR Chapter 660, Division 9 contains specific requirements for employment land planning inside urban growth boundaries. Division 9 requires cities to have adequate supplies of land to meet employment needs for a range of employment opportunities. Division 9 also requires that emplovment lands be adequate not just from a total acreage standpoint but to also be functionally adequate to assure that an adequate land supph- %ill be planned to capitalize on the City's economic opportunities in both quantity and qualim For purposes- of land use planning analvsis, development of emplovment lands can be categorized into five generalized development pattern forms: office, industrial, commercial retail, campus style, and accommodations Each of these general forms tends to be demanded by different industries and land demand for these forms varies in ihnportant qualitative ways. This land demand section of the Economic Element characterizes land demand according to these broad economic development forms. 4.1 Economic Growth Rate Forecast The regional 10 -year growth forecast by industry is prepared by the Oregon Frnployment Department and it represents a good foundation from which to develop a ovenrY year land demand forecast. It is expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a whole across all industries over the next nvenn� years and may reasonably be expected to exceed regional growth rates in target industries. Central Point's population is projected to grow at a faster rate (2.00°G, through 20405) than regional employment (153%) and thus it is reasonable to expect that emplovment growth will at least keep pace with the region across all industries. However, consistent with the Citv's competitive positions described above there are at least three sectors where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out -perform the overall regional growth. "Chose sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking and warehousing and retail. It is in these three industr% sectors that the State's regional forecast is appropriately adjusted upward to reflect localized opportunities. s Regional Plan Figure 2.4. Page 29 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 4.1.1 Specialty Food Manufacturing This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth assumptions in the manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this niche sector but may buoy It slight edge over regional growth rates. However; exceptional growth in this sector is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in the future materializes, then that may warrant a re-evaluation of the overall manufacturing employment growth forecast In the Economic Iclemeaht. 4.1.2 Trucking and Warehousing Trucking and warehousing is a strong industry regionally with higher than average employment concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much higher thaw regional or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents an excellent opportunity to expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relatively high wages. Also, this industry has potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry that creates the potential to outpace overall regional growth to a modest degree. Central Point is also wuiquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regional comparative advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan conic nplares that the "fold' area is well situated for this type oP economic activity north of Interchange 35 which already serves industrial traffic to V"hite City and aggregate resource uaffic in the arca. There is vcry little residential and commercial development around the interchange. No new residential development is contemplated in the. regional plan so this arca is well positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded transportation and warehousing uses. 4.1.3 Retail Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point:. Retail trade and associated employment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth is essentially consumer growth. 'Thus, it is reasonable to expect that retail trade in Central Point will outpace the two -county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average population growth as set out in the COnnt1''S coordinated population forecast for the Cite. From an industry categorization versus land use perspective there are some small burunportant differences. Land use terminology includes restaurants and bars aro included within the retail categot'y while restaurants are categorized in the leisure and hostility industry sectors in NAICS, so growth in this sector is appropriately consistent with the retail uses in both catcgorization schemes such as a boutique. 4.1.4 Planned Growth Forecast by Industry The below 'Cable 4.1-1 depicts a reasonable 20 -akar planned growth rate by industry for the City of Central Point. This growth rate utilizes the State's regional forecast for all industries with the exception of retail trade and transportation, warehousing and utilities. Retail trade unlizes a 2.05 percent Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) that is equivalent to the planned population growth for the City of Centf-al Point. 'I'hc'I'ransportation, Warehousing and Utilities target average annual growth rate represents the highest: reasonably achievable growth rate in this industrial classification. Page 30 0/ 51 City of Central Point Table 4.1-1 Central Point Target Growth Rate by Industry Sector (Source: Oregon Employment Department City of Central Point) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element Industry Sector State AAGR Central Point Target AAGR Total Private 1.53% 2.14% Educational and Health Services 2.24% 2.24% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1.29% 2.77% Wholesale Trade 1.29% 2.16% Retail Trade 1,29% 2.71% Transportation Warehousing and Utilities 1.29% 3.49% Leisure and Hospitalitv 1.27% 2.13% Professional and Business Services 1.66% 1.66% Manufacturing 1.42% 2.38% Construction 1.66% 1.66% Financial Activities 1.06% 1.06°/ Other Services 1.41% 1.41% Natural Resources and Minim 1.41% 1.41% Information 0.72% 0.72% 4.1.5 Comparison to Planned Regional Employment Growth The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan contains two sections relevant to emplovment growth planning6. As part of the regional plan development, ECO Northwest prepared a regional Economic Opportunities Analysis. This analysis looked at existing employment levels by City and made long-range employment projections for purposes of Urban Reserve planning. The most analogous period in the regional plan is the period 2011 to 2036. During that period, the Regional Plan estimated regional employment growth to be approximately 1.34% annual average growth. However, due to the recession starting levels in that period of 2011 were overestimated in the regional plan because the regional plan did not predict the largest recession in the post -W 11 era in 2008-2009. Methodologically, the regional plan's forecast methodology relied heavily on the most recent State forecast available at that time just as Central Point's Econohnic Element forecast now relies heavily on the most recent State forecast. However, one would reasonably expect diose forecasts to not ahgn perfectly because the State forecast relied upon in the regional plan was a 10 -year forecast until 2014 that now has only a year remaining. Overall, there is nothing that is inconsistent between the 1.34% regional growth rate in employment projected in the regional plan and the 2.14% growth rate forecast that is specific to the Cit, of Central Point UGB over this shorter planning period and planing for continued recovery from the largest recession in the post-VAX/ll period. Section 4.1.5 refers to Table 4-3 in Appendix Irl I of the Greater Bear Creek Vallev Regional Plan Page 31 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 4.2 20 -year Land Demand Estimate The Central Point target average annual growth rate in Table 4.1-1 can be utilized to create a 20 -hear employment land demand estimate for the Cite of Central point. Employment land demand estimates can be projected using a variety of techniques. One technique converts the projected growth rates into projected employees and then uses average cmploycc space needs and floor arca ratios to project future land needs. 'then these land needs Must be aggregated by the development pattern type demanded ba each industry so that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply calculations. Each of these steps squires assumptions about expected ratios and land development cffrcicncics. While there is nothing wrong with the growth forecast to employment to land needs conversion method, it does require several steps to calculate and may be unnecessarily complex in some circumstances. That is the case in Central Point which has an existing built employment land base than is reasonably efficient. The existing built employment land base contains a reasonably efficient representation of four of the five development pattern tvpes that includes retail commercial, office, industrial and accommodations. Collectively, these existing land base conditions can reasonably be assumed to function like an "existing population" to which the target growth rates can be applied and future land demands can reasonably be projected. The only development pattern that is not represented is die campus development pattern. 'There are no large campus development . patterns in Central point except for the school district campuses. Othcr than a new school, it is not expected that additional large campus development patterns (i.e. 25 acres or larger institutional development) are likely in Central Point. A new school would be most likely planned through the school facilities planning statute and located within the residential land base. There is no clear point where a `large office development" becomes a "campus development'. In practice, this is a continuum and it is entirely possible that one or hyo developments in the 5 to 15 acre range may occur over the planning period. The design and layout of such projects may result in them being more or less "campus like" as opposed to adjacent "large office sites". The City's existing land use sgrlations allow for such development patterns in menv of the employment areas and continuing to allow these uses would allow ami large office/small campus developments to be sited without need for any land use regulation amendments. In terms of growth planning projections, an development of this type is assumed to be captured in the employment growth rates that arc assumed to demand office space. To take this approach, the average annual growth rates from 'I able 4.1-1must be aggregated according to the type of development pattern they are expected to demand. This aggregation is reflected in Table 42- 1 and the industry sectors in each estimate are depicted in the far right column. leisure and hospitality would generally be expected to demand retail space 'in the form of restaurants) but also overnight accomtnodarions type development patterns. However, Central Point generally allows overnight accommodations to be locatecl within the commercial retail areas and therefore these categories and land needs may appropriately be aggregated despite the fact that their specific site requirements may be somewhat different than typical retail. Just because a new large campus development is no, . considered likely does not mean the CitV- should preclude such uses in its and use planning program for economic development. Page 32 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element The aggregated growth rates by development pattern type are the same as the state Forecast rates for the region for office space and slightly higher for retail due to higher rates of population growth forecast for Central Point and for industrial where comparative advantages in the transportation and warehousing sectors are expected to allow Central Point to outperform the region overall. Table 4.2-1 Central Point Target Growth Rate by Employment Space Type Demanded �oun;e: ureyun ompioymenr uepartrnenr, ury or �enrrai romp Central Point Type of Space Demanded By Sector State AAGR AAGR. Sectors in Estimate Commercial Retail 1.28% 2.48% -Retail Trade; Leisure and Hospitality Office 1.84% I 1 84% Education and Health Sermces; Professional and Business (net acres); Seruces; Financial ActiHties; Other Services Industrial 1.43% 2.41%Wholesale; T.W.U.; Manufactunng; Construction The aggregated average annual growth rate by development pattern types shown in 'Fable 4.2-1 can then be applied to the existing built land base to arrive at a reasonable projection of emplot-ment land needs over the next . twenty tears. This estimate is provided in'1'ablc 4.2-2. Table 4.2-2 Central Point 20 -Year Employment Land Demand Estimate (Source; Oregon Employment Department Qty or central Point; GSA Planning Ltd) Approximate Central Point, 2G -Year Land Space Type Existing Built Target AAGR, Demand (net acres); (growth rate), (net acres) Commercial Retail 94.5'2.48% 60.7 Office 48.31 1.84%1 21.4 Industrial 163.3 2.41%: 101.1 TotalNetAcres 306.1 183.2 The estimate of emploi-ment land demand in Table 42-2 depicts the net buildable employment lands needs for the Cit' of Central point across all industry categories (not counting additional land for employment in the education sector which would be located in residential areas and determined through the school facilities needs planting statute). "1'he 183.2 acres is projected to be total need Nvithin both the existing UGB and any additional land that might be required outside the existing UGB. From an urban growth boundary and total land need perspective, the Cit- will need approximately an additional 27 to 55 more acres to accommodate Future growth For a total of 210 to 240 total additional acres. This additional acreage corresponds to the need for an additional 15 to 30 percent of gross acreage for street rights of w'av9. s Net buildable emplocment lands are those lands that are planned for emplocment uses and are reasonably- free from development constraints. Net acres are the private buildable acres and do not include right of way acreage necessary to access these lands. 9 The net -to -gross factor in the Regional Plan on average is 170/ for all land uses: The higher end of net to gross range expressed in the Cin• of Central Point Economic Element reflects the potential for some initial emplocment Page 33 or 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 4.3 Site Requirements Analysis Goal 9 requires an anatvsis of site requirements. Site Requirements are the qualitative land features ncccssary for a site to possess in order for the site to meet the needs of businesses that would utilize the site Goal 9 and its implementing rule at OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 does not specify the level of detail required in the site requirements analysis. Ylorcover, the rule contemplates that the site requirements analysis is likely to vara with the size and complexity of the jurisdiction. The Central point Economic Element esscruially breaks its site rcquiretnents into three main development pattern tapes: retail commercial; office; and industrial. There are some other types of sires that are nor analyzed in detail for Central point but are worthy of a brief discussion: • Campus development patten tvpcs are those thatare large to vcry large in nature (aLnost ahvays 50 or more acres). These development patterns tend to serve governments, non- governmental institutions or velT large multi -national cornpanics. Other than school campuses, Central Pointdocs not have any large campus development patterns. No specific source of demand for Central Point . for this rape of use is identified in the Economic Element but such demand is possible. In the event unidentified demand materializes for this uyie of use, then specific targeted amendments to the clement may be appioptialc to capture the newly identified demand and to evaluate land supplies- to meet the needs. Nothing in rhe Economic hlemctit should be construed to disallow or be unsupportive for the siting of a large campus development pattern. • Overnight accommodations (hotels and motels) are a unique development pattern tape that is somewhat different in form than retail commercial uses. I-lowever, these uses arc genernlly allowed in retail commercial zones and many of their site requirements arc similar and can be accommodated on retail commercial sites. For this reason, the Central Point Economic Element does not project demand or analyze site supply for overnight accommodations independently from ocher types of commercial uses. 4.3.1 General Development Pattern Site Requirements Analysis The [:conomic Flcmcnt anah,zes the demand and supph1 of sites for three major development pattern types: retail counnercial, office and industrial. Within these general development pattern types, the Economic Elemcaat analyzes demand and supply of large, medium and small sites. ]n practice, there arc no discrete size breaks that differentiate betiveen large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze different sizes because the site renluncinents do vary with firm size. 'fable 4.3-1 describes the qualitative site requirements for each of the general development patterns analyzed in the Economic Elcuicnr. growth expansion is may be in the Toto area (as contemplated by rhe Regional plan) and this initial expansion mould include a significant portion of Intcrsnrte S right-of-wa\�. Page 34 of 51 City of Centra! Point Table 4.3.1 General Development Pattern Site Requirements (Source: City of Central Point) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 4.3.2 Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the Cin, of Central Point has opportunities for economic development in areas of specialq- foods manufacturing, truck transportation and transportation support services, and retall trade. The site requirements specific to Central Point for these target industries warrant more detailed consideration. Page 35 of 51 MIN" Retail commercial Retail commercialLarge commercial sites tend to cks ofuses typically require development requirescommercial that can be 100 acreorage salesall urban facilities premium access and can demand very large sites. Theseusers willanchorcommercial '? and services such excellent visibility for areas and attract customers for medium and small users. Must be a as water, sewer, customer attraction. located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and state Estorm drainage. Foot traffic and access highways. o police and fire to public transportation Ni Medium commercial uses can locate within larger blocks of U protection, can also be important. 2-7 commercial or may function as a stand-alone community ::Z electricity, natural commercial uses. Must be located adjacent to and visible from gas, and modern major arterials and collectors if not stat highways. Small/ Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by medium and communications systems 0.5-2 large retail commercial. These tend to be specialty sales that serve niche retail markets. Office uses typically Consumer driven office Large/ Large office uses will require excellent access to the regional require all urban users like branch banks 3.5-12 transportation network because they have large workforces that facilities and & insurance sales must require capacity in the system. Large office uses can locate in services such as have good visibility and commercial or industrial areas depending on the specific water, sewer, storm access. Other office requirements of the enterprise. W drainage, police and uses only need Med./ Medium office uses that require customer significant access will °'' fire protection, reasonably direct access p electricity, natural to the regional 1-3.5 seek out and compete for commercial zoned space. Other gas, and modern transportation network. medium office uses may demand business park space intermixed communications Airport access can be with light industrial uses. systems essential Small/ Small office uses are the uses that "fill in" commercial and 0.25-1 industrial areas because there needs are the most varied and requirements the most flexible. Industrial uses may Access for freight is a Large/ Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on regional, or may not require top priority and may be 15-300 national or internal scales. Factors that affect demand depends on all urban services. via truck and/or rail. the very specific requirements of the enterprise that are difficult to However, many Industrial uses predict a prion. m industrial uses will sometimes accept more Med/ Medium industrial uses tend to be price sensitive and seek out 'w have very specific remote locations l0 3-14 space within business or office parks. They sometimes require and large demands avoid congestion and property ownership that will also result in low real estate overhead a for certain services that support freight in relation to the enterprise. like power or movements. Airport Small/ Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is a sewage capacity access is often important. 0.5-2.5 priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites themselves. 4.3.2 Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the Cin, of Central Point has opportunities for economic development in areas of specialq- foods manufacturing, truck transportation and transportation support services, and retall trade. The site requirements specific to Central Point for these target industries warrant more detailed consideration. Page 35 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element • Specialty Food Products Mamefacturing- The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in specialty food products manufacturing in Central Point have small retail storefronts that eccompanl* their manufacturing businesses. The sites- are generally small and there is limited room to expand operations on the existing sites. The segment of 1 lighway 99 where these uses are located have good access to I-5 which have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99. However, the narrow strip between Highway 99 and the raih�oad tracks creates a practical limit on expansion. Central Point should keep lines of communication open with these businesses to assure that the site rcquitenients for any expansion are well understood by staff and pouch makers. • Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Services -These businesses require both office space and trucking facilities that arc often co -located. Site requirements may also include space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver accommodations and inter -modal freight handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is typically required. Adequate expansion area is often a factor when selecting a site so that expansion can be accommodated without the need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate freeway is essential and must be located in areas that arc rclatively ftxe from congestion to enable efficient freight movements. Aside from transportation facilities, power, and modern communications, some transportation uses may not necessarily require the full complement of other urban facilities and services. • Retail Trade- Convenient access to 1-5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements from 1-5 in Central Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and may raise site requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street arterial is good and access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts regional shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and medium retailers cannot be met. The anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and medium retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor. 4.4 Projection of Needed Employment Sites This section projects the Citv of Central Point's employment land needs. OAK Chapter 660, Division 009 requires estimates of land needs by the numbcr of sites demanded Individual site needs must be identified because employment site's twist be supplied in whole rrniddo. This is especially true for large sites. For example, a site for a large warehousing and freight forwarding operation can easily be 50 or more acres or it site for large shopping center can be 30 or more acres. 7lresc tvpes of uses have minimum site sizes and below those minimum sizes there is not adequate land to meet dze needs of these employers. Thus, it is very possible for a city, to have 200 acres of industrial land that is vacant within its UGB but if all of this land supply consists of parcels seven acres or less scattered around the UG13 then there is no single site that would meet that. projected demand. If demand (or need) is not projected by site type, it then becomes impossible to later analyze the land supply to determine its adequacy to supply the number or required sites. Central Point's projections of site needs are based upon potential site size demand ratios or splits. h.ssentially, the aggregate acreage t" In simple terms, nvo three acre sites cannot have their acreage added to be one six acre site. 1 f an employer needs a six acre sac Then a six acre nbole writ employment site must be provided or put anonccr way fractions of needed sites cannot be summed to satisfy discreetsire needs. Page 36 cf 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element demanded in Section 4.2 is broken down according to the size ratio splits xcithin each major development pattern category. 4.4.1 20 -Year Demand for Needed Sites Table 4.¢I depicts the number of needed sites by type. It uses typical site sizes for each development pattern type consistent with the above site requirements analysis-. The demand ratio splits represent the following break downs: • Ten Percent l,.arge/Thirty Percent Medium/SLrn Percent Small • Thirty Percent Large/Fort} Percent Medium/Thirty Percent Small • F'ort' Percent Large/Fifty Percent Medium/'i'en Percent Small Table 4.4-1 Estimate of Sites Demanded for Central Point UGS (2013-2033) (Source: Oregon Employment Department; City of Central Point) The 10/30/60 percent ratio is not expected to be adequate for land use planning purposes from a discreet site demand standpoint for several reasons. First, most of Central Point's existing employment lands base is downtown or along Highway 99. The existing development patterns of these areas are ahnost exclusively small sites «ith a handful of medium sites scattered throughout. Thus, the existing employment land base is already skewed toward a supply of small sites. Second, if it turns out thar demand for small sites is higher than initially planned and supplies are running low in Five to ten years from the time of the last UGB amendment, it is then much easier to add additional smaller sites because a UGB amendment is not required; all that is required is additional land division. The site demand number differences between the 30/40/30 ratio split and tine 40/50/10 ratio split are not too significant. Planning for land demands between these two splits is prudent and is expected to adequately capture demand for large and medium sites while still supplying nn adequate number of smaller sites over time. Page 37 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 4.4.2 Short -Term Demand Estimates OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 also requires an estimate of short-term employment land demand — the demand expected to accrue over the next five years. This requirement creates a rrrvrll mmml)err prol)lem for a communio, the size of Central point In the cases of large office sites and large and medium industrial or commercial sites, the projected demand (even under the 40/50/10 ratio split) over the Avenny year period results in numbers that range front 7 to 2. lay quartering these numbers it is possible to attain theoretical "Five-year demand" results, with numbers that range from less than two to less than one. Several of the categories essentially translate to demand that is one every, eight or ten years on average and assuming a stochastic demand during the period. With numbers this small, it would be hubris to project that this demand would occur within or without of the initial five sears of any given twenty-year planning period. As such, for these large site categories, land rise plans should seek to supply the full twenty-year projected demand as short-term demand as well. It can reasonably be assumed that small site demand is 25 percent of the 20 -year demand because the small sites do not have this same small numbers problem. 5 Employment Land Base Analysis After identifying economic opportunities in Section 3 and estimating land demand in Section 4, the next step in the Goal 9 process is to evaluate the land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which there is a projected demand over the nest twenty vears. Central Point updatcs its general buildable lands information on a regular basis and this information has been used as the starting point to analyze the land base from a mote specific Goal 9 perspective. The land base is categorized according to development pattern types: commercial retail, office, industrial, campus, and a handful of specific uses. Lands ate classified as vacant or developed. Classification of developed or vacant relied upon a number of data sources such as 2012 aerial photos, assessor data, and field inspections. The developed lands are classified as large, medium or small according to the three main development pattern types and judgment about the size of the site. For vacant lands, classification of both size and development pattern type is re(luired. 'Chis is because some office development patterns are allowed in both industrial and commercial plan designations. Thus, classification into the development pattern type was based in part on the applicable regulations (i.c. industrial in industrial areas and commercial in commercial areas) and also on local knowledge for locating office uses on specific sites where office uses would be expected to be the highest and best use and consistent with overall levels of office use relative to otter dcvelopnsnt in the Cuv. Central point has a considerable amount of "TOD Nixed Use" designated lands and, from a regulatory standpoint, much of these lands can be used for either residential or employment uses. The policies underlying this regulatory fiamework are intended to mix appropriate uses for transportation and ocher communal benefit reasons. However, this makes concrete categorical inventorying of emplovment lands on a strict regulatory basis problematic. Thus a more subjective and qualitative approach to land base categorization is required. For built lands, the approach is straightforward because lands were categorized according to the built uannc of the site. for vacant lands, the site requirements of employment uses are such that only certain lands within the TOD Mixed Use designated areas arc well located for typical cmploymcnr uses. Emplolancnt uses are likely to out -compete residential uses for the primate use of TOD Mixed Use designated lords and Page 38 or 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element therefore it can be assumed that the primary use of these lands will be employment Many of the TOD Mixed Use designated lands are ill -located fot employment uses but arc well located for residential uses and these can and are assumed to be primarily used for residential purposes. This narrows the inventors' categorization down to a relatively small number of sites that are well located for both residential and emplovinent; these lands were categorized based upon local knowledge and reviewed through the public process. Such categorizations may be ultimately inaccurate on a site-bv-site basis when the properties are actually developed in the future. Rather, it is expected that on average the categorization will be approximately close and is assumed to be adequate for purpose of supply of sites for the City's employment land needs as a whole. The land base inventory methods described above are reflected in the below Figures 5-1 and 5-2. Page 39 o/ 51 City of Central Point Figure 5-1 Central Point Employment Lands Inventory Map (Source_ Jackson County Assessor, City of Central Point, CSA Planning Ltd,) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element City of Central Point Employment Lands Inventory ..fid I WlLsou po 4 1 +-.OPTON fla_j 1. . _ —_L • SEEN( -V M.. t 1 yy 1� 1 rl 'W VIIAefl. 10, 1 r � 1 Li ` �'♦ qSl 1 � 1 1 4 y 1 19S'r, / _rnrLoa flo / I 1 j�� 1 (- •L L-- I _/AMYL 9E= -LL aE�LL�L' _ _ 0 1,000 2,000 Feet to ii _ TOD Mixed Use l= Industrial Agg �;� Large OKice medium Retail 5<h0o1 Campus Industrial Large Industrial �! Medium Office l Small Retail Vacant Employment Land ® Commercial 0 Medium Industrial �� Small Office O Church l Developed (Non -Employment) •� �• UGB O Small Industrial © w Large Retail State Police Not Employment Land ..• Upon completion of tire land inventory :Ind its incorporation into the City's Geographic InfornTation System (GIS), the dambasc is then available for the further analvsis presented in this section. The analysis begins With a revicm of the built employment lands because rhe existing land base can inform projections of future needs. Nloreover, the Central Point Economic Element actually uses this "popl-dstion" of employment lands as an input for future land need forecasting in Scction 4 above. Under these Page 40 of 51 City or Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element circumstances, a more detailed review of the built employment lands is necessan- to assure that the existing "population" is not skewed in ways that render it inappropriate to forecast future needs. The second part of the employment land base analysis focuses on the vacant lands. These lands are potentially available to meet immediate and long term employment land demands. The supply of these lands must be characterized so that the employment land supply within the exismig UGB can be reconciled with the demand projected over the next twenty years. 5.1 Built Employment Lands Table 5.1-1 below breaks down built employment lands within the UGB by site size and development pattern type. Table 5.1-1 Built Lands by Development Pattern Type (Source: Jackson County Assessor, City of Central Point: CSA Planning Ltd..) r Large Retail 12.1 2! 6.1 , 13.6% urn -Retail ; 20.2 11 1.81 22.8% Small Retail 56.4' 128 0.4 63.6% Retail Subtotal 88.7 141 0.6 Large Office _ 0.0 _ 0 _ 0.0 _ o.o% Medium Office 12.8 11 1.2 26.5% Small Office 35.5 68' 0.51 73.5% Office Subtotal 48.31 79, 0.6 Industrial Agg 41.8; 8 5.2 38.0% Large Industrial 20.2 1 : 20.2 Medium Industrial 52.0' 21 2.5 31.8% Small Industrial 49.3 51 1.0 30.2%° Industrial Subtotal 163.3 81 2.0 Grand Total 300.3 ! 3011 1.0' The retail and office data depicts reasonable and n-pical total acreages for a community the size of Central Point. For example, the Inteniatioaul Council on Shoppng Centers (ICSC) estimates the national average is 46.6 square feet of retail per capita. Central Point has approximately 43 square feet of retail per capita. However, the retail and office appear somewhat skewed to small sites. This can be explained in - part from Central Point's economic history. Most of Central Point's retail and office land developed during the period when the Cin- functioned as a service center and market for the surrounding agricultural community. The development patterns common during those days- were small one-stop- offices and shops in a downtown area. Then the City went through a residential growth period but the Cin -'s population itself did not have sufficient independent buying power to out -compete Medford for larger scale retail and office development. More recently, Central Point has grown sufficiently that it can Page 41 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element now compete with Medford for some linger retail and office uses such as the Albcrtsons/l urninare Row shopping center and Providence Hospital's new mccGcal facility. Central Point has a good distribution of built industrial lands. I-lowcvcr, the total industrial development mac be somewhat lower than other communities of similar sire. Central Point has been challenged, historically, for larger industrial employers due to siting of large industrial uses in iNledford Oust south of Central Point) and also competing with the significant inventory of industrial lands in the White Cit- area. Another way to assess the relative positioning of the built employment land base is to look at land values across plan designations. 'file Jackson Counts' Assessor's office estimates "real market" land values for all lands in Jackson County. it is well known that the Assessor's "real market value" may not necessarily be accurate for specific properties when those properties are actually sold. The values tend to be reasonably close to the real market numbers on average and certainly adequate for purposes of generalized comparisons across a large census of properties and this is what is analYzed below in 'Cables 5.1-2 and 5.1-3. Table 5.1-2 Average Real Market Land Value per Square Foot by Comprehensive Plan Designation (Source: Jackson County Assessor,City of Central Point; CSA Planning Ltd ) Comp Plan I Tax Lots I Mean (Main Designation) (Count)I (Land $/ft.) Commercial 451 $8.70 i Industrial _ 391 _ _ Mixed Use 861 $6.31 Table 5.1-3 ANOVA Land Value per Square Foot by Comprehensive Plan Designation (Source: Jackson County Assessor; City of Central Pofnt: CSA Planning Ltd) Analysis of Variance 1 Source of Variation j SSI df1 MS Fl P -value Between 2j 299.91 26.7 8.66E-11 _ _ _ Within Groups 1875.3! 1671 P I - - 11.2'... _ -- -------- ' "Che above gables compare mean real market land values per -foot across comprehensive plan map designations. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) indicates the differences in mean values depicted in 'Cable 5.1-2 are not the result . of random sampling error or chance. In simplified statistical terms, this means the differences are "real". From a land use planning perspective, the average mean values across plan designations is reasonably consistent with expectations: • 'Fhe best positioned commercial land is the most valuable per square foot. These lands are closest to 1-5 Ind therefore command the highest values. Overall, these commercial values are still somewhar low when compared to similar lands in Medford; therefore, Centrad Point has a relative land price advantage when compared to the City of Medford. Page 42 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element • TOD mixed use lands in the downtown area are likely to have relatively high values but these are likely weighed down by tate legacy commercial development on Highway 99. The actual differential in value is S2.39 per square foot when compared to the commercial land. This - indicates that much of this land which is developed for commercial uses is still reasonably well positioned for continued commercial tenancy and should be able to support some of the City's more intensive TOD objectives over time. • As expected, the industrial values are much lower than the values in the TOD and traditional commercial areas. The industrial land values are generally consistent with regional averages and may actually be somewhat on the high -side This indicates that demand exists but may also mean that the City could find itself at a price disadvantage i1t the future if vacant land inventories became too tight because industrial users tend to be the most price sensitive of the employment land categories. Overall, the "population of built employment lands" in Central Point appears to have adequate total acreage and diversity of development pattern types to function as an appropriate base from which to estimate future demands. Average employment land values do not exhibit unexpected reladonslvps and indicate a normally functioning market that reasonably well positioned from a regional standpoint. 5.2 Employment Land Supply The employment land supply analysis in this section evaluates lands xvithin the existing UGB for their ability to satisfy projected employment land needs for the next twenty years. This analysis is required to evaluate the supply of sites to meet both short-term and long-term demands. The analysis also evaluates redevelopment potential and the efficiency of the City's employment land base. 5.2.1 Vacant Land Supply Vacant land for employment land supply in analysis under OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 is a defined as follows: (la) "Vacant Land" means a lot or parcel: (a) Equal to or larger than one halfacrenot currently containing permanent buildings or improvements; or Q>) Equal to or larger than five acres where less than one half -acre is occupied by permanent buildings or improvements. The rule is silent on the land use designations to which this designation applies. For the Central point Economic Element, this definition was applied to all lands with a commercial or industrial comprehensive plan map designation and the TOD Mixed Use designated lands that are expected to be "suitable" under OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 for employment lands. For all such lands, the definition of vacant lands in OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 was applied. The lands identified as vacant are depicted in Figure 5.2-1 below. Page 43 0/ 51 City of Central Point Figure 5.2-1 Central Point Vacant Employment Lands Map (Source: Jackson County Assessor; City of Central Point, CSA Planning Ltd) Comprehensive Plan Economic Element City of Central Point Vacant Employment Lands By Type ; 'MESON RD 1�f •,.__ 1 . �itAa 1-��iI i 0 . . RD 1 � < �Ai • 1 ri , _ ""jj �J� 4S • m .., A�.t ` •• �. 1 �� r • p I 1 O LS 0 t psi 1 �J---T�v- ;.... to Comp Plan Land Type -: TOD Mixed Use ®Large Industrial,of Large Office Large Retail UGB Industrial ® Medium Industrial Medium Office Medium Retail ® Commercial Small Industrial Small Office Small Retail 0 1,000 2,000 Feet The vacant lands map shows that most of the available employment lands are east of Interstate 5. This is almost universal for the supply of vacant industnal lands and the commercial land base includes some vacant commercial and office sites located in the ''win Creeks TOD area. Goal 9 requires an analysis of d1c short-term supply of sires (which arc essentially sites that can be developed within one ycnr). Most all of the Cihv's vacant lands have frontage on higher order strect or on Page 44 of 51 City o/ Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element streets that are intended to serve employment uses. Access to the employment lands in the Twin Creeks TOD is constrained be a railroad crossing and thus someone might argue that these lands should notbe included as pan of the short -tern supply because they cannot be read% for development in one year. However, these Lands do have access and could be developed and the crossing is recommended for the nest ODOT improvement cycle which mould give anyone doing development in this area some confidence if they can operate for a couple years without the rail crossing. Other than the'1'wvin Creek sites, all the other vacant lands appear to have services that are readih- available and are planned and zoned for their intended employment uses. It is expected that most all of the vacant employment lands in Central Point could serve as short-term supply and therefore a more detailed short-term supply analysis is unnecessary. Table 5.2-1 Central Point Vacant Employment Lands by Site Type (Sounce: Jackson County Assessor: City o/ Central Point; CSA Planning Ltd) De@velopabl'e 4 Average Site' Large Retail 30.94 Sites �.s 2 Sie t"k' Size 15.51 Ratios 51% Medium Retail 14, 1 3 _12j 4,91, ,% Small Retail--- 11 25% RetoifSubtotol 60.61 171 3.61 Large • • OfficeSmall OfficeSubtotal iLarge Industrial 17.01 11 17.0i 31% Medium Industrial 0 IN Small Industrial 37.2': 3.4, 69% IndustriolSubtotol Grand Total 1 131.81 40� 3.31 Table 5.2-1 depicts the vacant employment sites by major development pattern type and size. The ratios of available supply for retail and office across size categories are reasonably well distributed. The Cit}- has no supply of medium industrial sites and therefore there is both a short-term and long-term supply deficiency in this category. From a qualitative standpoint most of the commercial and office employment sites are reasonably well located and configured to meet current and future market demands. There are two commercial sites with excellent visibility from T-5 but access to thcm is somewhat circuitous behind the existing Holiday Inn Express. The Twin Creeks sites are constrained bn- the railroad right -of -may as above described. There is another long narrow site just south of the Albertson's Center that comprises just over five acres. It has a dwelling and other development that uses less than one half acre and therefore must be inventoried as Page 45 o/ 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element vacant. I-Iowever, it is ill couEignred to meet anh new commercial or office needs unless it was used for expansion of the existing Albertson's Center. Most of rhe industrial sites are well contigured and well located and most of the available inventory is located in the triangular arca located between Fast Pune Street, Bcar Creels and 'Fable Rock Road. hi some ways, this land may be too well located for some industrial users. Between the commercial nearby, proximity to the airport and the heeway, it is possible that the price per foot may be too high for certain types of larger industrial users. For small and a few medium industrial users, the Table Rock Road inventor, assures that a range of site qualities and associated pricing is available in the Ciry's inventory. 5.2.2 Vacant Supply vs. Demand Reconciliation With the supply of sites defined and the demand characterved in 4.4 above, it is possible to reconcile the supply of vacant sites in retation to the projected demand. I his is the last major step to detcrmine the adequacy of the UGB to meet long -teem ennplo,ment land needs. Table 5.2-2 Central Point Vacant Employment Lands by Site Type (Source: Jackson County Assessor; City of Central Point, CSA Planning Ltd.) '['able 5.2-2 shows that the City's UGB has a deficit of approxirnatcly 52 net developable acres; this translates to a deficit of approximately 59 to 61 gross awes using typical public facilities ratios of 15'A to 30%J1 When annh7zed from a site supply standpoint, the City has small supply deficits in almost all medium and large site categories and has small deficits or suiphises in the small sites categories. Only the " The "public facilities rmio" Lv the averagr, percerlagc of a site that is deeoted to streets or other public facilities, or is onccavise un.ivadable for development. Page 46 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element large retail sites category, has a surplus under the 30/40/30 ratio split and this is only a one site surplus over the planning period. 5.2.3 Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency Analysis The City of Central Point's built employment land base has relatively limited redevelopment potential. Most of the built sites consist of relatively small lots with one and two story buildings. This configuration does not lend itself well to redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the supply and demand for sites over a twenty year period because this would require the demolition and aggregation of parcels. While this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is unlikely to be economically viable in Central Point on a scale that would actually alter long-term supply and demand projections for employment lands. This quanurauve deterimnation should not be construed to mean that there are not good qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along Highway 99. There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along 'fable Rock Road. Several parcels there contain residential uses that could be developed for employment uses under rhe Comprehensive Plan. Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is an area where relauvely inexpensive small industrial sites are available to own and where there are bruited development requirements that add overhead. In some ways, this arca is important employment land for certain tvpes of firms that have ever fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost-effective As such, aggressive redevelopment planning policies for this area may seem to be a great aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and unintended economic consequences. Moreover, without relatively massive Financial incentives for significant redevelopment that would change the overall quality of development in this area, lesser redevelopment policies tend to have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development projects that would trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties. The planned employment land base in the City of Central Point is efficient as planned. The TOD Mixed Use designations encourage efficiency through a wide swath of the City's employment land base. These designations and associated zoning allow for creative design and intensification of use. Because there are deficits in all categories of employment land, it is not possible to re -designate lands from one employment categom to another to tender the land base more efficient. Without a simultaneous Housing Element review it is not possible to know if surplus residential lands exist that could be redesignated for employment purposes. However, there are really only two areas (Twin Creeks and the area east of Hamrick Road and north of Beebe Road) that are not developed. It seems implausible that there is room for more than ten thousand additional people within these tvo relatively small areas over the nest tvent- years sufficient to also have room to accommodate significant employment land deficits. 6 Goals, Conclusions and Policies This section sets forth the conclusions from the foregoing analysis as well as the City's economic development goals and policies. The goals and policies in this section have been coordinated with, and endorse, the economic goals in the City's Strategic Plan'-'. The Cin's goals and policies are: 1'- Central Point Forward, Fair City Vision 2020, City AVide Strategic Plan, April 26, 2007 Page 47 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 6.1 Goal: General Economic Development 1. 'fo actively lit oohote it strong, diversified, and sustainable local economy, that reinforces Central Point's "small town feel'', and family orientation while preserving or enhancing the qualitv of life in the community as it place to live, work, and plan. 2. To create incentives to encourage and support economic development 3. To encourage and promote the devclopment or enhancement of retail and office areas to achieve a vibrant shopping, cuterminmene, living and working experience in the downtown area. 4. '1'o encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, and state agencies, and local businesses concerning economic development, educrtion, and workforce development. 5. '1'o encourage and support growth, parficndarly in the targeted industries (retail, specialrn food manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors. 6. To maintain at all times an adcquate supli1v of suitable short-term (five-year) employment lands. 7. To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual identifying and monitoring economic development strategics and programs available to the City. Through the development of its Economic Element, the City of Central Point has reached the following conclusions and policies relative to the above cited general economic goals: 1. Central Point concludes that effective economic development actions necessary to diversify the City's economic base requires an undenstanding oC, and a carefnil balance between regional cooperation and competition. it is impolsant to understand and pro -actively participate in the broader state and regional economic development discussions. Participating in regional economic development programs like SORE.DI and the Rogue Valley Workforce Development Council can improve rhe regional economic climate and a strong regional economy will benefit all communities within the region. Most importantly, to be am effective participant the Citv must recognize its competitive advantage within rhe region and compete for those economic development opportunities within the region for which the Central Point is well positioned. 2. Centrad Point concludes that the pursuit of beneficial econonnic development requires a balance between short-term and long-term economic objectives. The City recognizes that some opportunities may warrant short-term incentives to achieve longer term employment or property tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long-term benefit and may not warrant the short-term fiscal cost of incentives. 3. Central Point concludes that the economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities for Which the City is well positioned require timely and concerted action. 'I licse dynamic economic forces require the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. The City's economic development goals will be managed through the following policies "As defined in the Urbanizarion Element of the Comprehensive Pin, Page 48 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 6.1.1 Policy 1.1 The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming of alternative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including education and workforce development that are consistent with the City's economic development goals. . 6.1.2 Policy 1.2 The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and fiscal policies as the} relate to economic development to ensure that the City's economic development programming can be effectively implemented. 6.1.3 Policy 1.3 Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can be demonstrated that the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and the long- term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City. 6.2 Goal: Economic Opportunities Synthesis The Economic Element contains both qualitative and quantitative evaluations of the City's economic assets and challenges. The conclusions and policies in this section express the City's synthesis of these qualitative and quantitative findings and identify appropriate economic opportunities, as follows: Central Point concludes that the region has a demonstrated strength in the truck transportation and truck support services sectors and that Central Point residents working in this segment of the local economy are well compensated. Exit 35 is well situated to capitalize on growth in the trucking and transportation warehousing industry segments. ODOT's plans for the interchange contemplate that its design and the associated local street network will continue to prioritize freight movements. 'rhe interchange is relatively free from urban traffic that might otherwise impede the industrial, aggregate and freight traffic that utilize the interchange. Central Point has - an opportunity to work with ODOT and Jackson Count, to assure drat plans for this interchange reflect the opportunities for expanded [nick transportation and transportation Support services in the area and do so in a manner that will maxumizc the long-term potential for growth in this industry at this location. 2. Central Point concludes that commercial retail site requirements are specific and Central Point will need to plan for its competitive niche. Central Point is close to Jackson County Airport, Jackson County Expo and Interstate 5. Collectively, proxitniu- to these major regional draws, in association with die City's continued population growth, will create opportunities to capture and expand its competitive retail niche. 3. Central Point concludes that the City has experienced the developmentof a small specialty foods cluster that includes Rogue Creamery and Lillie Belle Farms (chocolatiers). These firms produce high quality products that have gained regional and national acclaim. Lxpansion of these funis and/or attraction of similar firms have the potential to gain the City notoriety for a unique industry segment that has potential for growth over time. Page 49 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 4. Central Point concludes that maintaining and improving the overall quality of life in the City is a qualitative mcasm�e that is not easy to quantify but is and %will continue to be important for the Cit) 's economic prosperity. 5. Central Point concludes that design and layout of the built environment affects the overall aesthetics and hvabihty of the City. Balanced land use and development regulations that control designs without stilling creativity hate the potential to improve the aesthetic of the City while inducing or eliminating land use conflicts. The standards and levels of design performance should differentiate between areas and land uses. 6.2.1 Policy 2.1 Central Point concludes that the Citr has experienced the loss of cottage industry and expanding small businesses due to a lack of vacant available employment related buildings (flex -spacer+) and the City cannot attract small businesses from elsewhere for the same reason. 6.2.2 Policy 2.2 The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, plan the Exit 35 arca — also called "Area CP-iB (i'olo)" — in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic opportunities, especially for trausportatio❑-based economic activity and truck rail freight support services. This area also contains an aeronautics manufacturing company in Erickson Air Crane and serves aggregate uses; these uses have many specific and unique dimensions that should be carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations applicable to this area need to account for the site requirements of firms in these sectors-. 6.2.3 Policy 2.3 The City s11111 periodically evaluate its regulations for employment . related development, particulatiy as relates to the targeted industries, and compatibility with adjacent non -employment lands, to ensure that the regulations are consistent with applicable `Best I'racticCS"15. Regulations found to no longer be appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable thereafter. 6.3 Goal: Employment Land Supply and Development The Economic Element contains bods a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the City's tand supplies and employment land devclopmenr patterns. This section sets forth the City's conclusions and policies that result boom this analysis, as follows: 1. Central Point concludes that urban facilities and services arc critical for the development of employment Lords. Thus, the City's Goal 11 Public Facilities and Services planning and Goal 12 'I'lansportation Planning arc critical to the timely delivery of infrastructure necessary to supporr economic development. 2. Central Point concludes that it must maintain an adequate supply of employment land. The Citi has deficits in nearly all development pattern categories according to findings in Table 5.2-2. "' An industrial or couhmemial/office building designed to provide the flexibiltry to utilize the floor space in a varict} of configurations. Usually provides a configuration allowing a flexible amount of office or showroom space in combination with manufacturing, laboratory, warehouse distribution, ctc. t' A best practice is a method or technique that has consistently shown results superior to those achieved with other means, and chat is used as a benchmadc. Page 50 of 51 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element The City will need to periodically expand its present UGIT to ensure an adequate 5 -year and 20 - year supply of buildable employment land. 3. Central Point concludes that the availability of vacant buildings (flex -space) for expanding small businesses is in short supple and that an effort should be made to encourage its development to expand the city's inventor- of flex -space. 6.3.1 Policy 3.1 The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and transportation facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of competitive short-term buildable lands sufficient to meet emplovment needs within a five-year period, particularly for the retail, specialn foods, health care, and trucking sectors. 6.3.2 Policy 3.2 The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short-term employment lands in the medium and large site categories equivalent to the twenty --year demand for those categories's. The supply of short-term employment land shall be reviewed and updated annually. NC�hen it is determined that the supply of land as measured in terns of number of sites and/or acreage in the medium and large site categories is inadequate to serve the twenty-year needs then the City shall amend its UGB to include additional short- term (5 -year) employment lands. 6.3.3 Policy 3.2 The City shall pursue and encourage Turnkey Design and Build solutions for flex -space that create opportunities for expanding small businesses in Central Point, and may consider economic development incentives to attract and `marry' the construction and development component with the small business component as an inducement to development, but only when it can be demonstrated that. the short -tern consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the Citv. 16 Conclusion 6.3(3) Page 51 of 51