HomeMy WebLinkAboutPlanning Commission packet - May 7, 2013A
CENTRAL
POINT
CITY OF CENTRAL POINT
PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA
May 7,2013 - 6:00 p.m.
Next Planning Commission
Resolution No. 791
I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER
II. ROLL CALL
Planning Commission members Chuck Piland, Mike Oliver, Tim Schmeusser, Tom Van
Voorhees, Susan Szczesniak, Craig Nelson Sr. and Kay Harrison
II1. CORRESPONDENCE
IV. MINUTES
Review and approval of March 5, 2013 Planning Commission Minutes
V. PUBLIC APPEARANCES
VI. BUSINESS
Pgs. 1 - 52 A. Public Hearing, City of Central Point Economic Element
VII. DISCUSSION
Pis. 53 -65 A. Central Point /Jackson County Urban Growth Boundary and Policy
Agreement
VIII. ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEWS
IX. MISCELLANEOUS
X. ADJOURNMENT
City of Central Point
Planning Commission Study Session Minutes
March 5, 2013
I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER AT 6:00 P.M.
II. ROLL CALL
Commissioners Chuck Piland, Mike Oliver, Susan Szczesniak, Tim Schmeusser,
Tom Van Voorhees, Craig Nelson, Sr. and Kay Harrison were present.
Also in attendance were: Tom Humphrey, Community Development Director,
Don Burt, Planning Manager; Connie Clune, Community Planner; and Didi
Thomas, Planning Secretary.
III. DISCUSSION
Economic Element Update, Background
Community Development Director Tom Humphrey introduced Jay Harland, Principal
with Craig Stone and Associates, to Commissioners and stated that Mr. Harland would be
introducing the Economic Element to them.
Mr. Harland explained that before we proceed with an Urban Growth Boundary
expansion, we need to update the Economic Element and its policies which have been
derived from the City's strategic plan.
Mr. Harland proceeded to explain that the Economic Element looks at the City's
economic opportunities and prospects for accommodating new employment. The
element is a part of the Comprehensive Plan and should be reviewed periodically to
determine what the City is positioned for. It explores the kinds of things that the City of
Central Point would like to see happen and provides a framework for employment land
planning policies and reconciles 20 years of supply and demand for employment land
within the UGB.
Geography and technology have an impact on the sectors that have exhibited strong
growth over the last 10 years. For Central Point, specialty foods, truck transportation and
retail services are three areas for which Central Point is ideally suited. Tom Humphrey
asked about aggregate operations, health care and Erikson Air Crane. Mr. Harland
suggested that we further consider these sectors as part of our policy consideration.
A review of national trends was presented along with State of Oregon forecasts and
adjustments in some of the target industries. Transportation, warehousing and utilities
are sectors projected for growth. Anticipated land demand estimates and site
Planning Commission Minutes
March S, 2013
Page 2
requirements were reviewed along with an inventory of vacant development
employments lands by type.
Staff distributed copies of the Economic Element policies to Commissioners for review
and comment. Mr. Humphrey will discuss the policies at the April meeting.
On March 1, 2013, the Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan was signed by the
Department of Land Conservation & Development, Mr. Humphrey informed, and the
City is now ready to commence an Urban Growth Boundary expansion to include
industrial lands. The basis to do so is found in the Economic Element.
IV. ADJOURNMENT
Mike Oliver made a motion to adjourn the meeting. Kay Harrison seconded
the motion. Meeting was adjourned at 8:05 p.m.
The foregoing minutes of the March 5, 2013 Planning Commission Study Session were
approved by the Planning Commission at its meeting on the day of
, 2013.
Planning Commission Chair
ECONOMIC ELEMENT UPDATE -
2013
STAFF REPORT
A#W&
CENTRAL
POINT
STAFF REPORT
May 7, 2013
Community Development
Tom Humphrey, AICP
Community Development Director
ITEM:
Public hearing on the Comprehensive Plan 2013 Economic Element Update, Applicant: City of Central
Point
STAFF SOURCE:
Tom Humphrey, AICP, Community Development Director
BACKGROUND:
Following the approval of the Regional Plan and the inclusion of the Tolo Area as an urban reserve there
is interest in expanding the UGB to include additional industrial lands. A pre- requisite to expanding the
UGB is showing a demonstrated need for additional industrial lands. The City's basis for determining
industrial land use needs is found in the Economic Element, which; being approved in 1984, is now
outdated. Consequently, it is necessary to update the Economic Element prior to any formal consideration
of expanding the UGB.
On March 5, 2012 the Planning Commission met to discuss a draft of the Economic Element. At that
meeting it was the decision of the Planning Commission to proceed with consideration of the Economic
Element as presented, and to schedule formal hearings beginning May 7, 2013.
On April 9, 2013 the Citizens Advisory Committee (CAC) met to discuss the Economic Element. It was
the decision of the CAC to forward a favorable recommendation to the City Council subject to the
following policy modifications:
1. Goal 4: General Economic Development — include reference to "education and workforce
development."
2. Goal 6: General Economic Development — To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point
Economic Development Manual identifying and monitoring economic development strategies and
programs available to the City.
3. Policy 1.1 add language referring to "including education and workforce development" as
economic development initiatives.
These changes have been incorporated into the Economic Element's goals and policies.
A final draft of the Economic Element is attached for your review and discussion at a May 7'' Planning
Commission meeting. It should be noted that the amount of aggregate demand (net acres) of employment
land needed during the planning period has been reduced from 78.2 acres' to 51.5 acres. This reduction
was due to a calculation error.
' Table 5.2 -2, City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Page 1 of 2
ISSUES:
None
ATTACHMENTS:
Attachment "A" PC Draft Economic Element
Findings Available on request
ACTION:
Open the public hearing, take testimony, close public hearing, and discuss recommendation to the City
Council.
RECOMMENDATION:
Approve Resolution No. XX forwarding a favorable recommendation to the City Council to approve the
Economic Element.
Page 2 of 2
ATTACHMENT "A" Economic Element
1 INTRODUCTION
The Comprehensive Plan Economic Element establishes the City of Central Point's land use policies for
economic development and contains both quantitative and qualitative analysis that can inform and
benefit other aspects of the City's economic development strategy and programming. As a land use
planning document, the Economic Element is constructed to comply with Statewide Planning Goal 9 and
its implementing administrative rule at OAR 660 Division 0091. The purpose of Goal 9 and its
implementing rule is to assure that cities will have adequate supplies of land for economic development
that support identified employment opportunities within the City.
The Economic Element includes both qualitative and quantitative components. The quantitative analysis
in the Economic Element serves several functions:
• Characterizes trends
• Describes economics relationships
• Illuminates areas of existing economic strengths
• Forecasts future economic conditions
• Estimates future employment land demand and site needs
• Estimates existing land supply and available sites within the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB)
• Reconciles land demand with existing land supplies and identifies the need for sites in relation to
the supply of available sites within the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB)
The qualitative components of the Economic Element describe the City's economy in a more intuitive
and anecdotal manner. The qualitative aspects of the Economic Element represent opportunities for the
City's land use planning to reflect and implement strategic and policy objectives for economic
development that are desired by the City of Central Point. The qualitative component is also important
for compliance with Goal 9's implementing rule because it requires an identification of comparative
advantages and requires an analysis of site requirements. Comparative advantages are opportunities for
the City of Central Point to outperform overall regional and national economic trends due to unique and
special qualities that differentiate and distinguish the City of Central Point. The site requirements analysis
describes qualitative attributes (such as visibility or access) that firms demand when selecting sites for
new economic enterprises.
Ultimately, future economic conditions are not entirely predictable. However, strategically planning the
City's land base to accommodate expected future needs and integrating the City's land use planning
efforts with broader economic development strategy and programming, has the potential to benefit
economic development conditions within the City.
1 Central Point considers the first four sections of the Economic Element to functions as the Economic
Opportunities Analysis for the City of Central Point and these sections include all required components and comply
in all ways with the requirements for an Economic Opportunities Analysis laid forth in OAR 660 Division 009.
Page 1 of 49 a
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
2 CENTRAL POINT ECONOMIC HISTORY
The more detailed qualitative analysis is presented in subsequent sections of the Economic Element and
is appropriately informed by a brief qualitative survey the City's Economic History. Central Point began
its economic life as a small community that served the surrounding farm industry. Central Point is
located upon and near some of Jackson County's best agricultural soils and was well located to serve the
needs of surrounding farming operations and this was the City's primary economic position before the
mid- 1960's. The City of Central Point was well situated to provide a range of economic interaction with
the nearby farm community during this period. The City provided a location for schools for children,
shops that supplied basic goods and services such as groceries and restaurants. The City was home to the
Grange Co -op where the grain elevator was and still is located and provided farmers with needed
agricultural supplies. The City was home to farm equipment sales and repair shops and similar retail farm
services.
Starting in the 1960's and strengthening in the 1970's, the City of Central Point grew into a bedroom
community as a result of rapid residential development and a deficiency of commercial and industrial
development that might have provided more jobs for the residents. The forest products industry in the
region continued to grow during the period and residents of Central Point were well located for
employment in the timber industry, being near to mills located in nearby north Medford and in White
City. This condition created a relative imbalance with Central Point supplying a greater proportion of
housing in relation to employment within the valley.
In 1980, the City of Central Point adopted its first Economic Element that has herewith been replaced by
this Economic Element. The U.S. economy has undergone four full economic cycles since the City of
Central Point's last economic element over thirty years ago. The 1980 Economic Element sought to
diversify the City's economy and reduce the degree of imbalance between employment and housing
within the City. Central Point has been successful to some extent over the last thirty years in its efforts to
diversify its economy. The City has experienced retail and industrial growth in and around Exit 33 on
Interstate 5. Providence Hospital recently added a medical facility on Highway 99 south of Pine Street.
A small specialty foods cluster has developed along Highway 99 north of Pine Street that includes Rogue
Creamery, Lilly Belle Farms chocolates and a wine tasting room. The Rogue Valley Council of
Governments has its main office building near downtown Central Point. Additional retail has been
added near freeway interchanges and along Pine Street and Highway 99. These employers and others
have served (and an overarching objective of this Economic Element is) to continue to add more balance
and diversity to the City's employment base.
3 NATIONAL, STATE AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC TRENDS
To provide the necessary context for the adoption of updated economic development policies and
strategies in the City's Comprehensive Plan, a review of national, state and regional trends is appropriate.
This review informs the qualitative aspects of the Economic Element by providing a foundation to
describe the City's comparative advantages. Also, the State of Oregon provides a ten -year regional
employment forecast which provides a sound and generally accepted reference forecast from which to
project localized economic growth for the City of Central Point.
Page 2 of 49
City of Central Point
3.1 National Trends
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
The national economy over the last five years has undergone the worst period since World War II from a
GDP perspective. This period was preceded by an economic expansion in the early 1990's, and with the
exception of a modest downturn in 2000 to 2001,continued through 2006. Figure 3.1 -1 depicts the
percent changed in GDP quarter over quarter from fourth quarter 2000 through third quarter 2012. Five
out of six quarters from fourth quarter 2007 to first quarter 2009 experienced negative GDP and during
second quarter 2008 through fourth quarter 2008 the contraction averaged around 1.5% per quarter
during the period.
Figure 3.1 -1
GDP Change
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
What is remarkable is that, even after such a prolonged and deep GDP contraction, growth has remained
relatively modest. No quarter has exceeded a one percent growth rate since the recovery began in second
quarter 2009. This is true despite the most accommodative monetary policy in the history of the Federal
Reserve supporting record low interest rates. In the post WWII era, most recoveries have been driven by
strengthening residential real estate and labor markets. While the real estate market is beginning to
stabilize, robust growth across the economy and on a national scale is still constrained by unemployment.
Page 3 of 49
Percent Change in Quarterly GDP
2M*/1
1.50%
1.00%
O.SO U
I'
I■ I�'
0 95
I
.UO
0 d C a d a d d'J, d d
d
C
CCf Cr a
C1 5 0 6
ff 0 d
O' d a d O' O' N a a a d
�U
1.00;
- 2,0095
- 7.50%
- 3.009n
What is remarkable is that, even after such a prolonged and deep GDP contraction, growth has remained
relatively modest. No quarter has exceeded a one percent growth rate since the recovery began in second
quarter 2009. This is true despite the most accommodative monetary policy in the history of the Federal
Reserve supporting record low interest rates. In the post WWII era, most recoveries have been driven by
strengthening residential real estate and labor markets. While the real estate market is beginning to
stabilize, robust growth across the economy and on a national scale is still constrained by unemployment.
Page 3 of 49
City of Central Point
Figure 3.1 -2
Time Series Unemployment
(source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
National Unemployment Rate
180
160 '
-- -US Labor Force
14 0 -25+ Vo HS Diploma - --
120 -
-26- Bachelors or More
100
&0
60
00
N N N 2 G > in
T y A
10 W J 5 t
Figure 3.1 -2 depicts the rapid increase in unemployment as a part of the recession. Unemployment levels
have peaked and are beginning to decline. Some of the decline is due to decreased participation in the
labor force by the long -term unemployed. Figure 3.1 -2 depicts the strong relationship between
unemployment and educational attainment. Those without a high school diploma have experienced
unemployment rates that are nearly twice the national average and nearly four times that of individuals
with a college education. However, the rate of unemployment has been declining at a faster pace over
the last two years for those without a high school diploma than for those with a college education.
Overall, unemployment rates remain at nearly twice the pre- recession levels.
The Federal Reserve's two main objectives are to have healthy labor market and stable prices. In an
effort to address unemployment levels, the Federal Reserve has been aggressive in its monetary policy.
This aggressive monetary policy has the potential to expand the economy and reduce unemployment but
necessarily induces inflation risk. These monetary measure are depicted below in Figure 3.1 -3.
Page 4 of 49
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Figure 3.1-3
Money Supply and Inflation (percent changes year over year)
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Federal Reserve Board)
Figure 3.1 -3 depicts the consumer price index — urban (CPI -U) and uses money supply (M2 — the most
commonly used measure of money supply) and the graph shows how these measures have varied over
time. The two measures depict an inverse relationship up until the early 2000's. Since that time, the two
measures have varied directly. Overall, it is somewhat remarkable that inflation over the last several years
has not been higher given the dramatic expansion of the money supply. In December 2012 the Federal
Reserve announced its intention to buy an additional $45 billion per month in treasuries for an extended
period while simultaneously purchasing $40 billion per month in mortgage backed securities. Both of
these measures will expand the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and expand the money supply.
Continued economic weakness and energy prices that have declined recently have kept inflation relatively
stable.
This raises the question: Where is all the money going and why is an expanded money supply not causing
inflation? Macro economies are necessarily demand driven. Thus in simple economic terms, expanded
money supply may increase demand marginally but is not likely to do so in proportion to the amount of
money supply expansion that has occurred on a national scale. So, the monetary policy should be causing
a price adjustment also known as inflation. However, it is not. Figure 3.1 -4 depicts the current account
for the Unites States since the fourth quarter of 1980 and explains in no small part the answer to this
phenomenon.
Page 5 of 49
City of Central Point
Figure 3.1-4
Current Account Time Series (inflation adjusted)
(Source: U.S. Bureau or Economic Analysis)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
US Current Account
(billions of $US)
$50.00
$0.00
9m!88IM8_89 � m
492 ooa o CORaV oo aoaoRR00000oo20002ob02
- 55C.00
- $10C.00 -
s150.00
-5200.00
$250.00
The current account is primarily exports minus imports during the period reported? Up until 1998, the
US generally ran relatively small current account deficits and had the occasional surplus. Since 1998, the
current account deficits have become much larger. This trend is caused by large -scale trade imbalances
that have structurally impaired the U.S. economy. The recession actually had a positive effect on current
account balance trends for a brief period, but the trend has again reversed over the last several years.
Recently the U.S. has experienced expanded domestic energy production and this increase in supply has
resulted in decreasing energy costs. The expanded energy supply has primarily resulted from advanced
modern natural gas drilling techniques and medium term projections indicate this trend is likely to
continue. Reduced energy costs from expanded domestic energy production have the potential of direct
and indirect impacts on the current account. More domestic energy production will reduce demand for
foreign energy (such as oil from the Middle East) and this will have a direct positive impact on the
current account. Reduced energy prices reduce the cost of production resulting in lowered delivered
prices and the potential to expand U.S. exports. Ultimately, at the local level, there is not much that can
be done about U.S. trade imbalances and the current account but local economies certainly can and do
experience the repercussions of these national conditions.
In addition to considering the above national economic measures, it's useful to consider the financial
position of U.S. households when discussing trends. Most economic growth results from some
combination of household. spending and business investment. Business investments are ultimately made
2 The Current Account calculated as CA =(X -M + NY + NCT. NY is net income from abroad and NCT is net current
transfers. For the Unites State NY and NCT is a very small percentage of the current account.
Page 6 of 49 8
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
by the people who own the businesses and those are also households. The financial position of U.S.
households is captured every three years by the Federal Reserve Board's survey of consumer finances.
Figure 3.1 -4 depicts data from the most recent survey in 2010 and shows household wealth over time by
age group.
Figure 3.1-4
Household Wealth
(Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Board- Survey of Consumer Finances)
US Household Median Net Worth by HH Age
(2010 Dollars)
$300,000 ■Less than 35
$275,000 n35-44
$250,000 ■45-54
$225.000 ■55-64
$200,000 •65-74
a 75 or more
$1'5,000
$150,000
$125.000
t
$100,000 '
$75.000
$50.000
$25.000
S-
1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
2007 2010
Figure 3.1 -4 shows a bleak picture for U.S. Household wealth for younger American households. Net -
worth for households aged 35 -44 was 38% less in 2010 than the previous low -water mark in 1992.
Meanwhile, the graph shows that wealth for those 65 and over remains near historic levels.
3.2 State Trends
The State trends section examines technical and policy level dimensions of Oregon's economic trends.
3.2.1 Technical Review of Oregon Trends
A quantitative way to examine state trends is to use a location quotient (LQ). The LQ compares the
relative strength of industries for a geographic region in relation to the nation as a whole. The LQ can be
conceptualized as a multiple for that industry. For example, if an industry sector in the State of Oregon
has an LQ of 2 then the concentration of that industry in Oregon would exhibit twice the concentration
of that industry in the national economy as a whole and conversely if the LQ is 0.5 then the
concentration of that industry would be half the concentration in the national economy. If an LQ is
greater than one it indicates that the concentration is greater than the national average and if it is less than
one then the concentration is less than the national average. Table 3.2 -1 depicts those industries in
Oregon with at least 1,000 employees that exhibit an LQ greater than 1.2 while Table 3.2 -2 depicts those
industries in Oregon with an LQ less than 0.80 with at least 1,000 employees. Those industries that are
Page 7 of 49 (�
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
not depicted in either table are the vast majority of 3 -digit NAICS' industries that are between 1.2 and
0.80 for which State concentrations are essentially the same as those found in the national economy as a
whole.
Table 3.2 -1
Oregon Industries with LQ > 1.20 and Employment >1,000
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Industry
Oregon
LQ
Statewide- -
Employment
NAICS 113 Forestry and logging
8.33
5,751
NAICS 321 Wood product manufacturing
4.62
19,285
NAICS 111 Crop production
3.86
25,420
NAICS 334 Computer and electronic product manufacturing
2.65
36,324
NAICS 115 Agriculture and forestry support activities
2.37
9,828
NAICS 813 Membership associations and organizations
1.73
28,321
NAICS 331 Primary metal manufacturing
1.64
7,906
NAICS 312 Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing
1.52
3,482
NAICS 511 Publishing industries, except Internet
1.51
13,969
NAICS 451 Sports, hobby, music instrument, book stores
1.37
9,884
NAICS 311 Food manufacturing
1.34
24,173
NAICS 551 Management of companies and enterprises
1.28
30,404
NAICS 425 Electronic markets and agents and brokers
1.26
13,198
NAICS 424 Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods
1.25
30,204
NAICS 112 Animal production and aquaculture
1.22
3,482
NAICS 454 Nonstore retailers
1.22
6,476
NAICS 518 Data processing, hosting and related services
1.22
3,726
Oregon continues to be a leader in forestry and agriculture. While the Oregon economy is much more
diverse than it was thirty years ago, forestry and agriculture still exhibit employment that is concentrated
at many times the national average.
In addition to forestry and agriculture (and related industries) the source industry strengths in Oregon can
be explained for many of the 3 -digit NAICS classifications. Computer and electronic product
manufacturing is certainly due in no small part to the presence of Intel and Tektronix in the Portland
area. Primary metal manufacturing is concentrated as a result of the continued operation of Oregon's
aluminum industry. Non -store retailers such as Harry and David contribute to the strength in that
industry sector. Beverage manufacturing is likely explained from the strong and growing wine and craft
beer industries in Oregon.
Other sectors are more difficult to explain. For example, the strength in membership organizations and
associations is not explained by any reason intrinsic to geographic region as to why this industry sector
3 NAICS = North American Industrial Classification System
Page 8 of 49 10
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
would benefit from being located in Oregon. It is also not explained by the presence of any one large
dominant membership association that happens to be located in Oregon. Similarly, the publishing
industry sector is one where there is no obvious large company that contributes to the concentration of
those industries nor is there any large intrinsic geographic benefit from operating that type of industry in
Oregon versus somewhere else. Oregon's attraction, where not otherwise explainable, is sometimes
attributed to its quality of life that influences those who make decisions on where certain firms will locate.
Table 3.2 -2
Oregon Industries with LQ < 0.80 and Employment > 1,000
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Industry
Oregon
LQ
Statewide- -
Employment
NAICS 512 Motion picture and sound recording industries
0.78
3,525
NAICS 541 Professional and technical services
0.77
73,254
NAICS 314 Textile product mills
0.71
1,036
NAICS 481 Air transportation
0.69
3,919
NAICS 814 Private households
0.68
5,406
NAICS 221 Utilities
0.66
4,492
NAICS 446 Health and personal care stores
0.66
8,035
NAICS 336 Transportation equipment manufacturing
0.62
10,747
NAICS 517 Telecommunications
0.61
6,704
NAICS 326 Plastics and rubber products manufacturing
0.58
4,551
NAICS 315 Apparel manufacturing
0.57
1,078
NAICS 212 Mining, except oil and gas
0.56
1,479
NAICS 335 Electrical equipment and appliance mfg.
0.52
2,349
NAICS 523 Securities, commodity contracts, investments
0.48
4,878
NAICS 325 Chemical manufacturing
0.37
3,565
Table 3.2 -2 depicts those industries where Oregon has low relative concentrations. Several of the
industries in which Oregon has low concentrations of employment are unsurprising. Chemical
manufacturing and plastics and rubber manufacturing are unsurprising because these industries tend to
cluster around petroleum and natural gas production centers with access to major international ports; no
such arrangement exists in Oregon. Portland International Airport is the State's largest airport but is not
a major hub for any of the national carriers or air freight handlers, therefore air transportation would not
be expected to be a strong industry in Oregon. Oregon does not produce significant amounts of cotton
nor is it proximate to synthetic fabric resources that are petroleum based and, therefore, it is not expected
that Oregon would be strong in those industry sectors.
There is one industry sector in which Oregon has a low concentration that is problematic but may also
represent a significant opportunity for the State. This sector is Securities, commodity contracts,
investments. Certain major metropolitan areas such as New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San
Francisco, Atlanta and Houston already have high concentrations in these sectors and some of their
Page 9 of 49 11
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
comparative advantages would be expected to endure from the existing concentrations of intellectual
capital and infrastructure. However, the digital world has reduced or eliminated many barriers to
operation of these types of industries in smaller metropolitan areas. For example, well-known Berkshire -
Hathaway is based in Omaha, Nebraska with a population of less than half a million people. It is
unknown whether this weakness will eventually become a sector of strength in Oregon, but it is worth
recognizing industry sectors that are relatively sparse in Oregon but which represent an area for potential
growth.
In addition to specific industry strengths, Oregon's generally fairs well when its relative economic
position is compared to other states. Table 3.2 -3 depicts Oregon's national ranking across a range of
economic indicators.
Table 3.2 -3
Selected Economic Indicator Comparisons
(Ranking is out of 50 States plus the District of Columbia)
(Source: see data description column)
( Selected
I Category Ranking Data Data Description
Educational
Attainment
Median Household
Income
18 29.2% Census data from 2009; ranking based upon
percentage with bachelor's or higher degree
21 $51,862 Census Data from 2010 -2011
Business Climate
20 281
Composite Score by Site Selection Magazine
Data from Council on State Taxation; Ernst &
State and Local
1 3.5%
Young Report 2011; Data is State Business
Taxes
taxes as a percent of private sector Gross
State Product
Entrepreneurship
5 1.93
University of Nebraska Entrepreneurship Index
Index
2010
From an educational attainment perspective, Oregon ranks 18th of the 50 states and District of Columbia
for residents with at least a bachelor's degree. Figure 3.1 -2 above depicts the strong relationship between
unemployment and college degree attainment and therefore Oregon's respectable ranking in this area
bodes well from a labor market fundamentals perspective. The median household income is ranked 21St
which is also respectable and arguably ideal; being near the top of median income is not necessarily ideal
because it can cause localized inflation that can result in disproportionate impacts on households on the
lower ends of the income spectrum. Similarly, Oregon is given a ranking of 20th by Site Selection magazine,
a periodical targeted at those in the industrial, large office space, and campus development pattern real
estate markets.
There are other areas where Oregon ranks high. Oregon is tied with North Carolina as the states with
the lowest overall state and local tax rates on businesses; State of Oregon tax revenues rely heavily on the
personal income tax. Local property taxes are limited by Measure 50 which covers all real estate types
including commercial and industrial. In combination, this structure results in low overall business taxes
in Oregon.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Business formation has historically provided the greatest potential for job creation. Oregon has risen
from the bottom 20% of states to number 5 in the entrepreneurship index published by the University of
Nebraska. Entrepreneurship creates new businesses and new businesses produce new jobs. The rise in
Oregon's ranking on this index is arguably the single most encouraging signal for improvement in the
Oregon economy.
3.2.2 Statewide Economic Development
There are number of efforts at the statewide level that are directed at economic development in Oregon.
Some of these are the result of direct State of Oregon investments. The State of Oregon has expended
significant resources and placed policy emphasis on education, innovation to support knowledge -based
economic growth, and infrastructure. Example investments that are likely to affect Oregon's economy
over the next twenty years include:
• Oregon Nanoscience and Microtechnologies Institute (ONAMI): ONAMI's collection of
laboratories and researchers include the Lorry I. Lokey Nanotechnology Laboratories in Eugene,
an internationally - recognized facility with more than 20 advanced materials characterization and
nanofabrication instruments; micro -level manufacturing and engineering research at the
Microproducts Breakthrough Institute in Corvallis; and the Center for Electron Microscopy and
Nanofabrication in Portland.
• Oregon Built Environment and Sustainable Technologies Center (BEST): Oregon BEST
connects the state's building industry to its shared network of university labs at Portland State
University, the Oregon Institute of Technology, Oregon State University and the University of
Oregon.
• Oregon Translational Research and Drug Development Institute (OTRADI): OTRADI
has unique "high throughput" facilities at Portland State University that provide university
researchers and small biotech companies with access to cutting edge drug discovery equipment
and expertise, speeding up research and allowing companies to compete in the biotech sector.
• Connect Oregon: Connect Oregon has now completed is fourth round of infrastructure
project funding and most of the Connect Oregon III projects are complete or nearing
completion. Connect Oregon is a grant program that supports transportation infrastructure
investments that serve dual purposes to support intermodal transportation connections that are
expected to result in additional direct economic development. This program has supported
airports, rail transportation and marine port infrastructure throughout the State. The Port of
Portland and Port of Coos Bay have benefitted especially from the program as these two ports
are Oregon's gateways to world markets for goods too heavy to ship by air.
• Oregon Learns: 40 -40 -20 Plan: Oregon, like all states, invests heavily in education. From an
economic development perspective, education investments are ultimately workforce
development. Oregon has set a goal to have 40 percent of its population with at least a college
degree, 40 percent of its population to have at least an associate degree /technical certificate and
20 percent with a high school diploma. This is an aggressive target and would require roughly a
Page 11 of 49 13
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
doubling of higher education through -put and high school drop -out elimination. Even
significant progress toward this goal would result in a markedly more capable workforce and one
that would result in a more productive workforce.
• Business Energy Tax Credit (BETC): The business energy tax credit system resulted in many
large investments in renewable energy over the last ten years. At the present time, these tax
credit opportunities have been markedly pared back, however much of the infrastructure built
over the last ten years will continue to supply energy and jobs for support and on -going
maintenance.
In addition to direct state investments, there are other entities and efforts that have the potential to affect
economic conditions in Oregon. The most prominent of these is Oregon Health and Science University.
Healthcare is an expanding industry in the United States and healthcare training and research are
important to meeting future demand. OHSU creates opportunities for Oregon to maintain a competitive
position in this sector on a regional and national level.
Other economic development activities in Oregon have centered on entrepreneurship. Business
formation is one of the best potential sources of job and wealth creation. However, business formation
is a high risk venture. Entities such as the Oregon Entrepreneurs Network and Oregon Angel Fund have
formed to address the capital and knowledge needs of entrepreneurs and small fast - growing companies.
Creating a cultural environment to support new business creation and the growth of innovative
companies can reduce risk and increase successful outcomes.
3.3 Economic Outlook and Implications for Central Point
It`s challenging to summarize the broad national and state economic trends and then distill them down in
a manner that provides meaningful guidance at the local level for a community such as Central Point.
This general truth is made more acute by current conditions in the national economy which has relatively
extreme positive and negative forces at work. The strong positive forces include near record low interest
rates, a large and young population that will be entering the workforce and which is relatively well
educated, significant available production capacity, reduced energy prices, available capacity in the labor
market, and an improving real estate sector. Strong negative forces include large trade imbalances, a
Federal Reserve balance sheet that is growing at an unprecedented rate, large Federal budget deficits that
must confront increasing entitlement costs against a backdrop of political stalemate, health care cost
increases that threaten the broader economy, and immigration policy and management that has caused
large -scale labor market distortions.
At a state level, the economic drivers and economic development activities tend to be Portland centric
and related to the Willamette Valley more broadly. The irony is that the local economy tends to be
influenced as much by the California economy as it is by the economic activity in Portland specifically
and the overall Oregon economy more generally. The California economy is so diversified and
represents such a large share of the national economy that the condition of the California economy tends
to vary relatively directly with the condition of the national economy and the improving real estate
market in California should support some economic recovery there.
Page 12 of 49 14
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
The City of Central Point has no direct control and relatively little influence on the trajectory of the
national and west -coast economies. Given the extreme forces at work at the national level, predicting
future economic conditions involves high levels of uncertainty. Thus, for local land use planning
purposes, the prudent approach is to plan for economic growth that would be expected to accrue
through modest economic improvement from current conditions and that improvement is most likely to
come through a combination of proportional sharing of improved national conditions as well as specific
growth in industries for which Central Point is well positioned. This can and should include
identification of targeted opportunities for growth specific to Central Point and the same is required by
the Goal 9 rule.
3.4 Regional and Local Trends
This section focuses on Jackson County and Central Point economic conditions and trends. More
localized analysis provides greater insight into local economic dynamics and illuminates economic
opportunities. The analysis relies upon information from a number of sources including the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Oregon Labor Market Information
System (OLMIS), and the Census Bureau.
Generally, the employment and business data presented in the Economic Element herein is based on the
County geography. Detailed employment and business data for the City proper can be obtained using
the ES -202 data set from the Oregon Employment Department. However, this data set is confidential
and disclosure of the data is restricted. This is not a problem in larger cities where more businesses are
present so that most of the major trends can still be analyzed without creating confidentiality conflicts.
However, in smaller communities a "small numbers problem" arises that limits the quantitative value of
the data. These data restrictions can further impair the qualitative component of the Economic Element.
This can cause results where data limitations restrict qualitative analysis and evaluation of economic
dynamics that are well known in the community. Consider a small high growth company in a small town
that is the only major employer in that sector, like the dairy products manufacturing sector for example.
This small, but very interesting company, is likely to have their employment data flagged as confidential
in the ES -202 reporting. This creates a paradox where the reason for wanting to analyze that company
on a qualitative level is because of its employment growth but maintenance of the required confidentiality
precludes this discussion. . To avoid this paradox, the quantitative components of the employment and
business data rely on county -level data and the more specific community analysis is based upon known
business presence in the planning area.
3.4.1 Demographics
Economics and demographics are interrelated phenomena. The causal relationships between the two
phenomena is a source of vigorous academic debate, but for purposes of land use planning, all that must
be understood is that demographics and economics vary directly, i.e. population increases, employment
increases.
Demographics represent two components of the economy — the labor force on the production side and
households on the consumption side. Aggregate consumption varies directly with the number of
households and their associated populations. Central Point's prior Economic Element characterizes
Central Point as a "bedroom community" in making observations that there is a relatively small amount
of employment and commercial retail services actually located in Central Point in proportion to the City's
population. Having balance between commercial retail and population is especially important from a
Page 13 of 49 15
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
local governance perspective in Oregon. Commercial lands tend to demand relatively few municipal
services but have the highest land valuations and therefore produce the highest levels of general fund
revenue through property taxes for a City. Residential populations demand considerable municipal
services but produce comparatively less in property taxes.
Demographic relationships to the economy are highly localized. Understanding local demographics
provides excellent insights into localized economic forces. The Census Bureau provides detailed
information on local demographics.
Figure 3.4 -1
Household Wealth
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
Central Point 2010 Population Pyramid
55+ years
90 to 94 yoals
Si to 89 years
80 to 84 years
^ to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to (A years
55 to S9 years
Soto 54 years
45 to 49 years ■ rema$,
49 to 44 years • Male
3510 34 yeats
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
IS to19years
10to 4yea,
5 to 9 years
Undrt Syemr
•Soo 600 .400 200 0 200 400 600 800
The population pyramid for the City of Central Point depicts a typical shape for a non - university town.
The "gap" in residents aged 20 -24 exists in most every non - university town because this is the age where
a segment of the population leaves to attend college or obtain employment elsewhere. Central Point's
population is somewhat less top -heavy than the nation as a whole or the County as whole; fewer people
aged 65 and older live in Central Point. Thus, even though the region experiences high levels of retiree
relocation that does not appear to be the case in Central Point, although the Twin Creeks project may
expand the upper levels of the pyramid over the next few years. Central Point has a large percentage of
families with working -age individuals aged 30 -50 and their children under the age of 14. Proportionally,
Central Point has higher levels of working age individuals than the population as whole that represents a
strong labor base that have families and will demand education services. Fewer retirees, will result in
lower overall levels of demand for medical services and fewer transfer payments into the local economy
through Social Security and Medicare.
On the national level, unemployment rates vary by educational attainment and this relationship tends to
be reflected in local labor markets as well. Thus, an examination of educational attainment in Central
Point is valuable when considering the local labor market.
Page 14 of 49 16
City of Central Point
Table 3.4 -1
Education Attainment by Age Group
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Education by Age
Oregon
Jackson
County
Central
Point
_
Population 18 to 24 years
358,370
17,203
1,464
Less than high school graduate
16.60%
19.70%
26.60%
High school graduate (includes equivalency)
31.40%
37.20%
38.50%
Some college or associate's degree
44.10%
38.70%
30.90%
Bachelor's degree or higher
7.90%
4.40%
4.00%
Population 25 to 34 years
517,603
23,369
2,437°
High school graduate or higher
87.70%
85.00%
83.50%
Bachelor's degree or higher
30.00%
21.10%
22.60%
Population 35 to 44 years
501,819
23,304
2,240
High school graduate or higher
88.60%
87.50%
90.40%
Bachelor's degree or higher
31.90%
21.20%
17.80%
Population 45 to 64 years
1,037,164
58,712
3;611
High school graduate or higher
91.40%
92.50%
93.40%
Bachelor's degree or higher
29.80%
25.60%
19.20%
Population 65 years and over
522,578
34,993
2,483
High school graduate or higher
85.20%
85.80%
82.00%
Bachelor's degree or higher
23.60%
23.80%
13.50%
Overall, the educational attainment of Central Point residents compares favorably with Jackson County.
However, neither the City of Central Point nor Jackson County compares favorably with Oregon as a
whole. For working people aged 25 -64, Oregon has approximately ten percent more residents with a
bachelor's degree or higher when compared to both Jackson County and Central Point. Most of this
differential is not the result of high school diplomacy; the rate of high school diplomacy is essentially the
same for people aged 25 -64 for Oregon, Jackson County and Central Point.
The Central Point data does depict a cause for concern in the population aged 18 -24. The rate of the
population with less than a high school diploma is a full ten percent less than for Oregon and is five
percent less than for Jackson County. A difference of 10 percent is essentially 146 more young adults
without a high school education. Unemployment rates tend to be almost twice as high for those without
a high school diploma so this data may signal some new social challenges for the City that are not present
in the City's current population, such as increased crime and /or demands for social assistance.
Because retail commercial businesses sell goods to households, the need for retail commercial generally
varies with population growth. Thus, it is reasonable and appropriate from both a municipal services
standpoint and a Goal 9 standpoint to plan for retail commercial lands in relation to projected population
growth. The planned population growth for Central Point is governed by Jackson County's coordinated
population forecast as contained in the Jackson County Comprehensive Plan. The Jackson County
Comprehensive Plan forecasts that Central Point will have a population of 27,410 people by 2033 which
equates to a 2.05 percent annual average growth rate from 2013 to 2033.
Page 15 of 49 -1-7
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
3.4.2 Wages and Employment
Households have three sources of income: wages, investments, and transfer payments. For most
working -age households, wages are the source of the vast majority of income. Household income is
returned to the economy in the form of household consumption, taxes and investments. Thus, wages
and employment have significant implications for any economy.
Figure 3.4 -1
Employment Trends
(Source: Oregon Labor Market Information System — OLMIS; total covered wage employment)
90.000
— Employment
80.000 — Average Pay($j
70,000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
1 20.000
Jackson County Employment and Pay Trends
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2007 2)08 2009 2010 2011
Figure 3.4 -1 depicts average pay in Jackson County in absolute dollars and the overall level of
employment. Employment levels dropped dramatically as a result of the recession in 2008. This
differential translates into approximately $325 million less wages circulating in the Jackson County
economy currently than was circulating in 2007. In rough numbers, this means the economy of Jackson
County is about 10 percent smaller in absolute dollars currently than it was in 2007.
However, for those who have remained employed during the recession, absolute wages have increased at
the same pace and were not interrupted by the recession at all. Some of this trend may be the result of
changes in productivity. For example, the same workers may be doing more work for only marginally
more compensation. Also, new technology implementation may have increased productivity such that
average compensation has been able to rise without the need to hire additional workers. Inflation has
been held in check during this period and thus it would appear that average compensation increases have
kept pace with inflation during the period.
The Census collects detailed data on employment during the decennial census. This data provides
insights into industries in which the residents of Central Point are employed and the relative
compensation across industries. The Census data reports the residents' employment data and is not a
census of businesses and employment within Central Point itself. However, matching regionally strong
industries with the existing residents employment characteristics is an logical economic development
strategy.
Page 16 of 49 is
City of Central Point
Table 3.4 -2
City of Central Point Residents' Full -time Employment and Earnings
(Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2010 Census)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Industry/Subject
Oregon
Jackson County
Central Point
%
Oregon
Oregon
Median
Median
Median
Median
Median
Total
Earnings
Total
Earnings
Earnings
Total
Earnings
Earnings
Full -time, year -round
civilian employed
population 16 years and
1,096,784
$40,724
54,242
$35,288
86.7%
5,505
$32,952
80.9%
over
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing and hunting
35.774
$29,791
1;210
$37,736
126.7% !
63
$17,386
58.4%
Mining, quarrying, and oil
1
and gas extraction
1,402
$48,431
152
$45,104
93.1%
40
$37,174
76.8%
Construction
78,418
$43790
3,718
$41.483
947%
707
$35,013
80.0%
Manufacturing
164,921
i
$44,444
6,203
$33,027
74.3%
597
$34,122
76.8%
Wholesale trade
43,538
$43,434
1.550
$42,847
986%
164
$42.317
98.8%
Retail trade
127,169
$31,543
9,137
$30,800
97.6%
1,006
$28,607
90.7%
Transportation and
warehousing
43,987
$46,791
2;671
$44,756
95.7 %
386
$55,205
118.0%
Utilities
12,662
$61,310
390
$53,472
87.2%
41
$68,417
111.6%
Information
24,265
$45,946
1,213
$43,349
943%
65
$34,231
745%
Finance and insurance
55,976
$46,534
2,237
$39,339
84.5%
187
$29,632
63.7%
Real estate and rental
and leasing
25,691
$39,035
1,171
$33,059
847%
42
$22,885
586%
Professional, scientific,
and technical services
70,242
$56,823
2,486
$40,938
72.0%
33
$82,031
144.4%
Management of
companies and
1,263
$57,585
70
$59,113
102.7%
0
enterprises
Administrative and
support and waste
36,960
$30,411
1,976
$29,579
97.3%
336
$16,597
54.6%
management services
1
Educational services
64,251
$44,176
2,241
$42,936
97.2% j
214
$42.333
95.8%
Health care and social i
assistance
131,582
$37,454
8,109
$34,881
93.1% li
727
$40,091
107.0%
Arts, entertainment, and i
recreation
17,133
$32,439
925
$28,043
86.4% i
54
$30,172
930%
Accommodation and
food services
50,308
$21,602
3,138
$18,852
87.3% 1
207
$17,802
82.4%
Other services, except i
public administration
44,973
$32.332
2,743
$31 ,021
95.9% I
375
$17.355
537%
Public administration
66,269
$52,501
2,902
$51,763
98.6%
261
$53,552
102.0%
The numbers in the far right column depicted in black bold typeface are the industries where Central
Point residents earn 100 percent or more than the statewide median. In terms of large differentials, only
one industry has significant number of employees and pays significantly higher wages than the statewide
average. That industry is transportation and warehousing. Jackson County has a structural advantage in
Page 17 of 49 19
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
the transportation industry because California does not allow triple trailers and Oregon does. This
requires loads to be reshuffled in Jackson County. Also, many years ago a company called Attaway grew
into a relatively large truck brokerage in Medford. Ultimately, the enterprise failed but not by reason of
an unsound business model and consequently, individuals who gained experience in the industry started
their own firms and a cluster of truck brokerage businesses has existed in Jackson County ever since.
These are both factors that have demonstrated durable comparative advantages in the transportation and
warehousing industry in Jackson County and these advantages have translated into wages that are much
higher than the statewide median in that industry for Central Point residents of whom approximately 386
are employed in that sector.
Conversely, retail trade is depicted in red bold typeface because of its relatively low wages in Central
Point. Typically, retail wages are somewhere near the middle across all industries but tend to be relatively
competitive across geographies. For example, the Jackson County median is only slightly less than the
statewide median. However, Central Point's median is almost ten percent below the statewide median
and is over seven percent less than the Jackson County median. Because of the competitive
compensation structure within this industry sector, retail may represent an opportunity to grow wages if
Central Point can increase its retail employment base.
Table 3.4 -3
State of Oregon Employment Forecast for Jackson and Josephine County
(Source: Oregon Employment Department - OLMIS)
Sector
2010
2020
Net
Increase
Total payroll employment
99,610
113,960
14,350
14%
Total private
83,910
97,640
13,730
16%
Educational and health services
16,670
20,800
4,130
26%
Trade, transportation, and utilities
22,280
25,320
3,040
14%
Leisure and hospitality
11,250
12,760
1,510
13%
Professional and business services
8,220
9,690
1,470
18%
Manufacturing
8,330
9,590
1,260
15%
Construction
3,640
4,290
650
18%
Financial activities
5,120
5,690
570
11%
Other services
3,470
3,990
520
15%
Natural resources and mining
2,930
3,370
440
15%
Information
2,010
2,160
150
7%
Government
15,700
16,320
620
4%
3.4.3 Workforce Commuting Patterns
Travel to and from work is essentially a labor force cost. The longer and more expensive the commute
the higher the wage must be to justify the travel costs. Thus, it is useful to consider commuting patterns
when evaluating labor force conditions.
Page 18 of 49 g o
City of Central Point
Table 3.4-4
Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns
(Source. U.S. Bureau of the Census)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Worker Travel Information
Jackson
Central
(workers 16 years and over)
Oregon
County
Point
MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION TO WORK
Car, truck, or van
82.7%
86.5%
93.8%
Drove alone
72.0%
76.8%
86.0%
Carpooled
10.8%
9.7%
7.8%
Public transportation (excluding taxicab)
4.2%
0.9%
0.0%
Walked
3.9%
3.4%
2.0%
Bicycle
2.1%
1.4%
1.4%
Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
Worked at home
6.1%
6.7%
2.7%
TRAVEL TIME TO WORK
Less than 10 minutes
17.5%
20.6%
21.8%
10 to 14 minutes
16.9%
22,2%
29.7%
15 to 19 minutes
16.5%
19.3%
24.7%
20 to 24 minutes
15.0%
15.2%
11.2%
25 to 29 minutes
5.9%
5.0%
3.4%
30 to 34 minutes
11.9%
8.8%
5.5%
35 to 44 minutes
5.4%
3.3%
1.8%
45 to 59 minutes
5.6%
2.9%
0.4%
60 or more minutes
5.3%
2.7%
1.6%
Mean travel time to work (minutes)
22.1
18.4
14.8
PLACE OF WORK
Worked in state of residence
97.8%
98.8%
99.5%
Worked in county of residence
77.5%
94.9%
97.7%
Worked outside county of residence
20.3%
3.9%
1.8%
Worked outside state of residence
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
Living in a place
79.4%
74.3%
100.0%
Worked in place of residence
38.6%
37.8%
21.0%
Worked outside place of residence
40.8%
36.5%
79.0%
Not living in a place
20.6%
25.7%
0.0%
Central Point exhibits a somewhat unique combination of commuting patterns. Typically, cities that have
a low percentage of its residents working within the city also have relatively high commute times. That is
not the case for Central Point. Central Point has only 21 percent of its residents who work in Central
Point but Central Point residents have much shorter than average commute times when compared to
statewide and countywide averages. The logical explanation for this unusual data relationship is that high
Page 19 of 49 9 1
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
percentages of Central Point residents work in north Medford which in many cases is right across the
street or they work in White City which is proximal and can be accessed via relatively uncongested
sections of Interstate 5 and Table Rock Road. Given the short commute times reported in the census
data, this indicates that Central Point is well positioned to provide labor that is effectively less expensive
than the regional or statewide workforces. Central Point is in fact central in relation to the regional jobs.
3.4.4 Economic Development Context
In addition to the quantitative measures, Goal 9 encourages cities to consider the qualitative traits of their
local economies to support future economic development and employment growth. These qualitative
traits are evaluated below through a simple SWOT assessment (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities,
and Threats).
Table 3.4 -5
SWOT Evaluation of Central Point Economic Context
(Source: City of Central Point)
Trait Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Relatively low
Direct
Few large employers
percentage of
If relative wages
Failure to
large retail to
can be increased
capture
Location Size and Buying Power population. Relatively low per-
modestly Central
Proportional
of Markets Statewide and household income
Point can capitalize
growth over
national exposure
on expanding
time; especially
with specialty
population.
in specialty
foods cluster.
and Agenda setting.
foods.
Page 20 of 49 49
If Central Point can
Growth around
Direct
Few large employers
add a few larger
Capitalizing
communication
located in Central
employers in one
this opportunity
Economic Development Efforts and collaboration
Point; Limits role in
sector then it can
will require a
and Programs between City staff
regional Economic
drive economic
coordinated
and local
Development Policy
development policy
strategy with
businesses.
and Agenda setting.
and agenda in that
implementable
area.
actions.
Page 20 of 49 49
Growth around
Expansion to Exit
Exit 35 needs to
Central Point has
Central Point 1 -5
35 would add an
accomplish
freeway access
Transportation Facilities and good access
Interchange Exit 33
9 ( )
additional freeway
interchange and
economic
development
to the regional
g
is an old design with
g
for
opportunities
priorities without
network
limited capacity.
key industries to
e
threatening the
locate there.
function of the
interchange (Exit
35).
Page 20 of 49 49
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Central Point's
Central Point's water
Advocate for
workforce has
supply is via contract
training and
Regulatory delay
access to Rogue
with Medford Water
programs that
Maintaining a
Central Point
Commission and
Central Point
good relationship
takes a practical
sewage treatment is
should continue to
with Medford is
Public Facilities and Services approach to its
via the Regional
have adequate
important to
public facility
Water Reclamation
capacity to serve
avoid any
needs and
Facility Operated by
future employment
service
requirements.
Medford all under
demands,
agreement
programs.
negotiable long -term
out rates.
disputes.
agreements.
Central Point's
Advocate for
workforce has
There are limited
training and
Regulatory delay
access to Rogue
post - graduate
programs that
High school drop
Community
degree opportunities
directly benefit
outs have limited
Workforce Development College; Southern
and no research
Central Point
employability
Oregon
university in the
employers.
and demand
University; the
region. High school
Support local
disproportionate
Job Council and
drop -outs have
schools to minimize
services.
other training
limited employability.
high school drop -
programs.
out rates.
The completion of
RPS makes
Regulatory delay
possible
RPS is just recently
Capitalize on the
to complete
employment
adopted and some
opportunity for
planning
Regulatory Barriers growth in the Tolo
implementation
targeted
processes to
area to capitalize
requires additional
employment growth
make the Tolo
on the
planning work.
in the Tolo area.
area market
advantages it
ready.
presents.
3.4.5 Regional Competitiveness
Planning for economic development should be supported by an understanding of the region's
competitive position. As a general rule, employers make locational decisions based upon a region's
competitive position for their specific industry and then make specific choices between communities
within the region based upon localized factors. Thus, identifying industries in which the region can be
competitive is important to develop land use policies and strategies to capture economic development
potential for which Jackson County is well positioned.
There are several quantitative measures that can be used to assess the relative strength of industry sectors
within a region. Two commonly used measures are shift -share and location quotient (LQ). These
measures emphasize different economic phenomena. The LQ compares the relative strength of
industries for a geographic region in relation to the nation as a whole. The LQ can be conceptualized as
a multiple for that industry. For example, if an industry sector in the State of Oregon has an LQ of 2
then the concentration of that industry in Oregon would exhibit twice the concentration of that industry
in the national economy as a whole and conversely if the LQ is 0.5 then the concentration of that
industry would be half the concentration in the national economy. If an LQ is greater one it indicates
Page 21 of 49 23
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
that the concentration is greater than the national average and if it is less than one then the concentration
is less than the national average. The LQ is a snapshot in time and does not reflect changes over time.
The shift -share measures the degree to which an industry sector has outperformed the nation as a whole
within that industry's employment levels during a specified time period. If an industry has grown
nationally in relation to other sectors, such as healthcare over the last ten years, but the regional growth
has remained static within the industry then there will be a zero shift -share percentage. If the regional
growth outpaced the change in national share then there would be a positive shift- share. A positive shift -
share could even be depicted where the nation as a whole loses absolute employment vs. the regional
share. For example, if manufacturing employment decreased during the period analyzed but the regional
economy held a constant manufacturing employment base during the period this would result in a
positive shift- share.
Table 3.4 -6
Jackson County Shift -Share Analysis (2001 -2011)
(Source: Oregon Regional Economic Analysis Project)
NAICS
Industry Sector
Percent Shift
Compared to
National Growth
Net
Employment
from Shift
Total
Employment
31 -33
Manufacturing
9.88
865
2510
55
Management of Comp. & E.
55.43
463
2038
51
Information
19.38
437
452
52
Finance & Insurance
12.38
392
6057
111 -112
Farm
12.41
362
6388
62
Health Care & Social Asst.
2.9
353
15851
48 -49
Trans. & Warehousing
10.2
299
3013
92
State Government
2.37
57
1783
NA
Unreported
0.28
8
3857
61
Educational Services
0.15
2
6226
928
Federal Military
-4.51
-27
5715
71
Arts, Ent., & Rec.
-3.47
-97
968
92
Federal, Civilian
-6.44
-109
5796
113 -114
Forestry, Fishing, & Other
-6.63
-126
1513
54
Prof. & Tech. Services
-4.6
-225
15462
21
Mining
-97.65
-249
3418
53
Real Estate, Rent. & Leasing
-7.13
-314
9066
81
Other Services
-8.89
-536
6644
23
Construction
-8.12
-553
1806
56
Admin. & Waste Services
-11.1
-567
603
92
Local Government
-9.55
-688
2512
72
Accom. & Food Services
-9.33
-741
7590
44 -45
Retail Trade
-5.69
-923
2794
TOTAL
-1.82
-1,919
112,062
Page 22 of 49 24
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
The region outperformed the nation from 2001 to 2011 in seven industries that have resulted in
significant relative employment growth during the period. Management of companies and enterprises
has the highest percent gain in employment relative to the nation during the period 2001 through 2011.
Manufacturing has experienced the strongest shift in terms of total employment relative to the national
economy.
If an industry sector has out - performed in a shift -share analysis and the concentration within that
industry also exceeds national averages in an LQ analysis, then those industries are likely to be ones for
which the region has exhibited durable comparative advantages. The below table depicts industries in
bold red italics that have an industry concentration greater than 1.2 times the national average and are
also within an broader industry sector in Table 3.4 -6 where growth has outpaced the national rate from
2001 to 2011.
Many of these industry sectors are those that have been historically strong in Jackson County. Forestry
and wood products manufacturing and agriculture and food products manufacturing have historically
been strong industries in Jackson County and they remain so. Due to its role as the regional service
center, Jackson County continues to exhibit strength in several healthcare industries.
Other areas of strength in the region have developed more recently such as truck transportation and
support industries for transportation. These are somewhat newer industries and have grown in
prominence in the regional economy over the last ten years. Similarly, management of Companies and
Enterprises is a category that did not even exist on the prior classification system (Standard Industry
Classification or SIC). This classification involves employment in companies that run other types of
smaller companies. The employment in this category is relatively large regionally given the somewhat
remote location of the region and the levels of expertize that would typically be required in this type of
industry; this may be explained by quality of life and amenity concentrations in the area
Page 23 of 49 25
City of Central Point
Table 3.4 -7
Jackson County Location Quotient Analysis
(Red Italics — indicate industries that also exhibited a positive shift - share)
(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
North American Industrial Classification LQ_ Emplo ferment
NAICS 454 Nonstore retailers
8.89
2230
NAICS 113 Forestry and logging
7.49
245
NAICS 321 Wood product manufacturing
7.27
1436
NAICS 115 Agriculture and forestry support activities
4.89
961
NAICS 111 Crop production
2.39
746
NAICS 711 Performing arts and spectator sports
2.38
558
NAICS 515 Broadcasting, except Internet
1,92
322
NAICS 484 Truck transportation
1.75
1338
NAICS 519 Other information services
1.71
156
NAICS 451 Sports. hobby, music instrument, book stores
1.66
566
NAICS 323 Printing and related support activities
1.54
425
NAICS 813 Membership associations and organizations
1.51
1171
NAICS 488 Support activities for transportation
1.47
485
NAICS 441 Motor vehicle and parts dealers
1.38
1370
NAICS 533 Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets
1.34
19
NAICS 622 Hospitals
1.33
3668
NAICS 452 General merchandise stores
1.33
2412
NAICS 443 Electronics and appliance stores
1.32
409
NAICS 623 Nursing and residential care facilities
1.32
2452
NAICS 445 Food and beverage stores
1.31
2176
NAICS 447 Gasoline stations
1.31
636
NAICS 517 Telecommunications
1.3
670
NAICS 562 Waste management and remediation services
1.29
275
NAICS 621 Ambulatory health care services
1.29
4659
NAICS 311 Food manufacturing
1.25
1065
NAICS 551 Management of companies and enterprises
1.21
1361
3.4.6 City of Central Point Competitive Position Summary
When all the regional and localized factors are synthesized, there appear to be at least four target industry
sectors where the City of Central Point may exhibit a strong and durable competitive position:
• The specialty foods cluster that includes Lilly Belle Farms chocolates, Rogue Creamery and the
nearby Seven Oaks Farm just outside Central Point's municipal boundary represents a small but
unique opportunity for growth.
• Truck transportation and related support industries pay high wages to City residents and is a
sector that both the Region and the City are well positioned to serve.
• Planned population growth in Central Point in the regional plan is expected to support expanded
retail commercial within the City as the buying power of the City's residential base expands.
Page 24 of 49 26
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
• Planned population growth is also likely to support expanded healthcare services in the City.
Overall, this sector is expected to grow rapidly within the region. Existing investments in the
City of Medford hospitals are likely to concentrate much of the regional growth in that
geographic area, but Central Point has an opportunity to keep pace with overall regional growth
in the sector.
Central Point also has some unique spatial characteristics that may support future economic activities in
two other sectors due to the adoption of the RPS plan. Specifically, there are aggregate employment uses
and Erickson Air Crane that are located within the Tolo Urban Reserve Areas. These are both employer
types with special needs, but the areas inclusion in the RPS Plan may present opportunities to work with
these employers for mutual benefit.
4 Land Demand
This section of the Economic Element projects the City of Central Point's long term (20 -year) and short
term (5 -year) supply of needed sites for employment land. OAR Chapter 660, Division 9 contains
specific requirements for employment land planning inside urban growth boundaries. Division 9 requires
cities to have adequate supplies of land to meet employment needs for a range of employment
opportunities. Division 9 also requires that employment lands be adequate not just from a total acreage
standpoint but to also be functionally adequate to assure that an adequate land supply will be planned to
capitalize on the City's economic opportunities in both quantity and quality.
For purposes of land use planning analysis, development of employment lands can be categorized into
five generalized development pattern forms: office, industrial, commercial retail, campus style, and
accommodations Each of these general forms tends to be demanded by different industries and land
demand for these forms varies in important qualitative ways. This land demand section of the Economic
Element characterizes land demand according to these broad economic development forms.
4.1 Economic Growth Rate Forecast
The regional 10 -year growth forecast by industry is prepared by the Oregon Employment Department
and it represents a good foundation from which to develop a twenty year land demand forecast. It is
expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a whole
across all industries over the next twenty years and may reasonably be expected to exceed regional growth
rates in target industries. Central Point's population is projected to grow at a faster rate (2.00% through
20404) than regional employment (1.53 %) and thus it is reasonable to expect that employment growth
will at least keep pace with the region across all industries.
However, consistent with the City's competitive positions described above there are at least three sectors
where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out - perform the
overall regional growth. Those sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking and warehousing and
retail. It is in these three industry sectors that the State's regional forecast is appropriately adjusted
upward to reflect localized opportunities.
4 Regional Plan Figure 2.4.
Page 25 of 49 27
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
4.1.1 Specialty Food Manufacturing
This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth
assumptions inthe manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this niche
sector but may buoy a slight edge over regional growth rates. However, exceptional growth in this sector
is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in the future
materializes, then that may warrant a re- evaluation of the overall manufacturing employment growth
forecast in the Economic Element.
4.1.2 Trucking and Warehousing
Trucking and warehousing is a strong industry regionally with higher than average employment
concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much higher than regional
or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents an excellent opportunity to
expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relatively high wages. Also, this industry has
potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry that creates the potential to outpace overall
regional growth to a modest degree.
Central Point is also uniquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regional comparative
advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan contemplates that the "Tolo"
area is well situated for this type of economic activity north of Interchange 35 which already serves
industrial traffic to White City and aggregate resource traffic in the area. There is very little residential
and commercial development around the interchange. No new residential development is contemplated
in the regional plan so this area is well positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded
transportation and warehousing uses.
4.1.3 Retail
Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point. Retail trade and associated
employment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth is
essentially consumer growth. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that retail trade in Central Point will
outpace the two -county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average population growth as set
out in the County's coordinated population forecast for the City. From an industry categorization versus
land use perspective there are some small but important differences. Land use terminology includes
restaurants and bars are included within the retail category while restaurants are categorized in the leisure
and hostility industry sectors in NAICS, so growth in this sector is appropriately consistent with the retail
uses in both categorization schemes such as a boutique.
4.1.4 Planned Growth Forecast by Industry
The below Table 4.1 -1 depicts a reasonable 20 -year planned growth rate by industry for the City of
Central Point. This growth rate utilizes the State's regional forecast for all industries with the exception
of retail trade and transportation, warehousing and utilities. Retail trade utilizes a 2.05 percent Average
Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) that is equivalent to the planned population growth for the City of Central
Point. The Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities target average annual growth rate represents the
highest reasonably achievable growth rate in this industrial classification.
Page 26 of 49 28
City of Central Point
Table 4.1 -1
Central Point Target Growth Rate by Industry Sector
(Source: Oregon Employment Department; City of Central Point)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Indu§try Sector
State AAGR
Central Point
Target AAGR
Total private
1.53%
2.140%
Educational and health services
2.24%
2.24%
Trade transportation, and utilities
1.29%
2.77%
Wholesale Trade
1.29%
2.16%
Retail Trade
1.29%
2.71%
Trans ortation Warehousing and Utilities
1.29%
3.49%
Leisure and hos itali
1.27%
2.13%
Professional and business services
Manufa unng
1.66%
1.42%
1.66%
2.38%
Construction
1.66%
1.66%
Financial activities
1.06%
1.060/.
Other services
1.41%
1.41%
Natural resources and mining
1.41%
1.41%
Information
0.72%
0.72%
Stale AAGR
Contra! Reim
Total vata
°
2.14 0, 6
Educ,atl. Ral and health seFyiGes
7240/
7
TFade, tFaRspertatiOR, and utilities-
0%
7
Wholesale T-Fade
1.29,04
2 1604
'2
Retail Trade
1�
711
10,;
4391Y4O��'4
X�1.2�900/
'1-274
��2
2-1314
t:CHY4
'28i -�Y�O
'411R
'»VYO
' .66%
061
1.4 10%
1
jRfeFFnat?en
0.7201;
0-2204
4.1.5 Comparison to Planned Regional Employment Growth
The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan contains two sections relevant to employment growth
planning5. As part of the regional plan development, ECO Northwest prepared a regional Economic
Opportunities Analysis. This analysis looked at existing employment levels by City and made long -range
5 Section 4.1.5 refers to Table 4 -3 in Appendix VII of the Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan
Page 27 of 49 29
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
employment projections for purposes of Urban Reserve planning. The most analogous period in the
regional plan is the period 2011 to 2036. During that period, the Regional Plan estimated regional
employment growth to be approximately 1.34% annual average growth. However, due to the recession
starting levels in that period of 2011 were overestimated in the regional plan because the regional plan did
not predict the largest recession in the post -WWII era in 2008 -2009.
Methodologically, the regional plan's forecast methodology relied heavily on the most recent State
forecast available at that time just as Central Point's Economic Element forecast now relies heavily on the
most recent State forecast. However, one would reasonably expect those forecasts to not align perfectly
because the State forecast relied upon in the regional plan was a 10 -year forecast until 2014 that now has
only a year remaining. Overall, there is nothing that is inconsistent between the 1.34% regional growth
rate in employment projected in the regional plan and the 2.14% growth rate forecast that is specific to
the City of Central Point UGB over this shorter planning period and planning for continued recovery
from the largest recession in the post -WWII period.
4.2 20 -year Land Demand Estimate
The Central Point target average annual growth rate in Table 4.1 -1 can be utilized to create a 20 -year
employment land demand estimate for the City of Central Point. Employment land demand estimates
can be projected using a variety of techniques. One technique converts the projected growth rates into
projected employees and then uses average employee space needs and floor area ratios to project future
land needs. Then these land needs must be aggregated by the development pattern type demanded by
each industry so that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply
calculations. Each of these steps requires assumptions about expected ratios and land development
efficiencies.
While there is nothing wrong with the growth forecast to employment to land needs conversion method,
it does require several steps to calculate and may be unnecessarily complex in some circumstances. That
is the case in Central Point which has an existing built employment land base that is reasonably efficient.
The existing built employment land base contains a reasonably efficient representation of four of the five
development pattern types that includes retail commercial, office, industrial and accommodations.
Collectively, these existing land base conditions can reasonably be assumed to function like an "existing
population" to which the target growth rates can be applied and future land demands can reasonably be
projected.
The only development pattern that is not represented is the campus development pattern. There are no
large campus development patterns in Central Point except for the school district campuses. Other than
a new school, it is not expected that additional large campus development patterns (i.e. 25 acres or larger
institutional development) are likely in Central Point'. new school would be most likely planned through
the school facilities planning statute and located within the residential land base. There is no clear point
where a "large office development" becomes a "campus development ". In practice, this is a continuum
and it is entirely possible that one or two developments in the 5 to 15 acre range may occur over the
planning period. The design and layout of such projects may result in them being more or less "campus
like" as opposed to adjacent "large office sites ". The City's existing land use regulations allow for such
6 Just because a new large campus development is not considered likely does not mean the City should preclude
such uses in its land use planning program for economic development.
Page 28 of 49 30
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
development patterns in many of the employment areas and continuing to allow these uses would allow
any large office /small campus developments to be sited without need for any land use regulation
amendments. In terms of growth planning projections, any development of this type is assumed to be
captured in the employment growth rates that are assumed to demand office space.
To take this approach, the average annual growth rates from Table 4.1 -1must be aggregated according to
the type of development pattern they are expected to demand. This aggregation is reflected in Table 4.2-
1 and the industry sectors in each estimate are depicted in the far right column. Leisure and hospitality
would generally be expected to demand retail space (in the form of restaurants) but also overnight
accommodations type development patterns. However, Central Point generally allows overnight
accommodations to be located within the commercial retail areas and therefore these categories and land
needs may appropriately be aggregated despite the fact that their specific site requirements may be
somewhat different than typical retail.
The aggregated growth rates by development pattern type are the same as the state forecast rates for the
region for office space and slightly higher for retail due to higher rates of population growth forecast for
Central Point and for industrial where comparative advantages in the transportation and warehousing
sectors are expected to allow Central Point to outperform the region overall.
Table 4.2 -1
Central Point Target Growth Rate by Employment Space Type Demanded
(Source: Oregon Employment Department; City of Central Point)
Central Point
Type of Space Demanded BY Sector State AAGR AAGR Sectors in Estimate
Commercial Retail 1.28% 2.48% Retail Trade; Leisure and Hospitality
Office 1.84% 184% Education and Health Services; Professional and Business
Services; Financial ActhAties; Other Services
Industrial 1.43% 2.41% Wholesale; T.W.U.; Manufacturing; Construction
The aggregated average annual growth rate by development pattern types shown in Table 4.2 -1 can then
be applied to the existing built land base to arrive at a reasonable projection of employment land needs
over the next twenty years. This estimate is provided in Table 4.2 -2.
Table 4.2 -2
Central Point 20 -Year Employment Land Demand Estimate
(Source: Oregon Employment Department, City of Central Point; CSA Planning Ltd.)
Page 29 of 49 31
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
11
The estimate of employment land demand in Table 4.2 -2 depicts the net buildable employment land7
needs for the City of Central Point across all industry categories (not counting additional land for
employment in the education sector which would be located in residential areas and determined through
the school facilities needs planning statute). The 183.2 acres is projected to be total need within both the
existing UGB and any additional land that might be required outside the existing UGB. From an urban
growth boundary and total land need perspective, the City will need approximately an additional 27 to 55
more acres to accommodate future growth for a total of 210 to 240 total additional acres. This additional
acreage corresponds to the need for an additional 15 to 30 percent of gross acreage for street rights of
ways.
4.3 Site Requirements Analysis
Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. Site Requirements are the qualitative land features
necessary for a site to possess in order for the site to meet the needs of businesses that would utilize the
site. Goal 9 and its implementing rule at OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 does not specify the level of
detail required in the site requirements analysis. Moreover, the rule contemplates that the site
requirements analysis is likely to vary with the size and complexity of the jurisdiction.
The Central Point Economic Element essentially breaks its site requirements into three main
development pattern types: retail commercial; office; and industrial. There are some other types of sites
that are not analyzed in detail for Central Point but are worthy of a brief discussion:
• Campus development pattern types are those that are large to very large in nature (almost
always 50 or more acres). These development patterns tend to serve governments, non-
governmental institutions or very large multi- national companies. Other than school campuses,
Central Point does not have any large campus development patterns. No specific source of
demand for Central Point for this type of use is identified in the Economic Element but such
demand is possible. In the event unidentified demand materializes for this type of use, then
specific targeted amendments to the element may be appropriate to capture the newly identified
Net buildable employment lands are those lands that are planned for employment uses and are reasonably free
from development constraints. Net acres are the private buildable acres and do not include right of way acreage
necessary to access these lands.
8 The net -to -gross factor in the Regional Plan on average is 17% for all land uses; The higher end of net to gross
range expressed in the City of Central Point Economic Element reflects the potential for some initial employment
growth expansion is may be in the Tolo area (as contemplated by the Regional Plan) and this initial expansion
would include a significant portion of Interstate 5 right -of -way.
Page 30 of 49 32
Approximate
Central Point
20 -Year Land
Space Type
Existing Built
Target AAGR
Demand
(net acres)
(growth rate)
(net acres)
Commercial Retail
94.5
2.48%
60.7
Office
48.3
1.84%
21.4
Industrial
163.3
2.41%
101.1
Total NetAcres
306.1
183.2
11
The estimate of employment land demand in Table 4.2 -2 depicts the net buildable employment land7
needs for the City of Central Point across all industry categories (not counting additional land for
employment in the education sector which would be located in residential areas and determined through
the school facilities needs planning statute). The 183.2 acres is projected to be total need within both the
existing UGB and any additional land that might be required outside the existing UGB. From an urban
growth boundary and total land need perspective, the City will need approximately an additional 27 to 55
more acres to accommodate future growth for a total of 210 to 240 total additional acres. This additional
acreage corresponds to the need for an additional 15 to 30 percent of gross acreage for street rights of
ways.
4.3 Site Requirements Analysis
Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. Site Requirements are the qualitative land features
necessary for a site to possess in order for the site to meet the needs of businesses that would utilize the
site. Goal 9 and its implementing rule at OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 does not specify the level of
detail required in the site requirements analysis. Moreover, the rule contemplates that the site
requirements analysis is likely to vary with the size and complexity of the jurisdiction.
The Central Point Economic Element essentially breaks its site requirements into three main
development pattern types: retail commercial; office; and industrial. There are some other types of sites
that are not analyzed in detail for Central Point but are worthy of a brief discussion:
• Campus development pattern types are those that are large to very large in nature (almost
always 50 or more acres). These development patterns tend to serve governments, non-
governmental institutions or very large multi- national companies. Other than school campuses,
Central Point does not have any large campus development patterns. No specific source of
demand for Central Point for this type of use is identified in the Economic Element but such
demand is possible. In the event unidentified demand materializes for this type of use, then
specific targeted amendments to the element may be appropriate to capture the newly identified
Net buildable employment lands are those lands that are planned for employment uses and are reasonably free
from development constraints. Net acres are the private buildable acres and do not include right of way acreage
necessary to access these lands.
8 The net -to -gross factor in the Regional Plan on average is 17% for all land uses; The higher end of net to gross
range expressed in the City of Central Point Economic Element reflects the potential for some initial employment
growth expansion is may be in the Tolo area (as contemplated by the Regional Plan) and this initial expansion
would include a significant portion of Interstate 5 right -of -way.
Page 30 of 49 32
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
demand and to evaluate land supplies to meet the needs. Nothing in the Economic Element
should be construed to disallow or be unsupportive for the siting of a large campus
development pattern.
• Overnight accommodations (hotels and motels) are a unique development pattern type that is
somewhat different in form than retail commercial uses. However, these uses are generally
allowed in retail commercial zones and many of their site requirements are similar and can be
accommodated on retail commercial sites. For this reason, the Central Point Economic
Element does not project demand or analyze site supply for overnight accommodations
independently from other types of commercial uses.
4.3.1 General Development Pattern Site Requirements Analysis
The Economic Element analyzes the demand and supply of sites for three major development pattern
types: retail commercial, office and industrial. Within these general development pattern types, the
Economic Element analyzes demand and supply of large, medium and small sites. In practice, there are
no discrete size breaks that differentiate between large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze
different sizes because the site requirements do vary with firm size. Table 4.3 -1 describes the qualitative
site requirements for each of the general development patterns analyzed in the Economic Element.
Page 31 of 49 33
m
d
E
E
V
d
v
O
.r
5
a
City of Central Point
Table 4.3 -1
General Development Pattern Site Requirements
(Source: City of Central Point)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
iRetail commercial
Retail commercial
Large/
Large commercial sites tend to cluster within larger blocks of
II uses typically require
development requires
8 -30
commercial that can be 100 acres or more. Outdoor storage sales
all urban facilities
premium access and
can demand very large sites. These users will anchor commercial
and services such
excellent visibility for
areas and attract customers for medium and small users. Must be
as water, sewer,
customer attraction.
located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and state
storm drainage,
Foot traffic and access
highways.
police and fire
to public transportation
Med./
Medium commercial uses can locate within larger blocks of
�I protection,
can also be important.
2 -7
commercial or may function as a stand -alone community
electricity, natural
commercial uses. Must be located adjacent to and visible from
gas, and modern
major arterials and collectors if not stat highways.
communications
Small/
Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by medium and
systems
0.5 -2
large retail commercial. These tend to be specialty sales that
serve niche retail markets.
Office uses typically
Consumer driven office
Large/
Large office uses will require excellent access to the regional
require all urban
users like branch banks
3.5 -12
transportation network because they have large workforces that
facilities and
& insurance sales must
require capacity in the system. Large office uses can locate in
U services such as
have good visibility and
commercial or industrial areas depending on the specific
water, sewer, storm
access. Other office
requirements of the enterprise.
II drainage, police and
uses only need
fire protection,
reasonably direct access
Med./
Medium office uses that require customer significant access will
electricity, natural
to the regional
1 -3.5
seek out and compete for commercial zoned space. Other
gas, and modern
transportation network.
medium office uses may demand business park space intermixed
�i communications
Airport access can be
j with light industrial uses.
is systems
essential
- - --
Small/
-- - -- - -- - --- _
Small office uses are the uses that "fill in °commercial and
0.25 -1
industrial areas because there needs are the most varied and
requirements the most flexible.
jj Industrial uses may
Access for freight is a
Large/
Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on regional,
or may not require
top priority and may be
15 -300
national or internal scales. Factors that affect demand depends on
all urban services,
via truck and /or rail.
the very specific requirements of the enterprise that are difficult to
However, many
Industrial uses
predict a priori.
�I industrial uses will
sometimes accept more
have very specific
remote locations to
Med/
Medium industrial uses tend to be price sensitive and seek out
and large demands
avoid congestion and
3 -14
space within business or office parks. They sometimes require
II for certain services
that support freight
property ownership that will also result in low real estate overhead
ii like power or
movements. Airport
in relation to the enterprise.
—_
i; sewage capacity
access is often
Small/
Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is a
II
mportant.
0.5 -2.5
priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight
movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites
�i
themselves.
4.3.2 Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements
In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the City of Central Point has
opportunities for economic development in areas of specialty foods manufacturing, truck transportation
and transportation support services, and retail trade. The site requirements specific to Central Point for
these target industries warrant more detailed consideration.
Page 32 of 49 34
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
• Specialty Food Products Manufacturing- The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in
specialty food products manufacturing in Central Point have small retail storefronts that
accompany their manufacturing businesses. The sites are generally small and there is limited
room to expand operations on the existing sites. The segment of Highway 99 where these uses
are located have good access to I -5 which have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99.
However, the narrow strip between Highway 99 and the railroad tracks creates a practical limit
on expansion. Central Point should keep lines of communication open with these businesses to
assure that the site requirements for any expansion are well understood by staff and policy
makers.
• Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Services- These businesses require both
office space and trucking facilities that are often co- located. Site requirements may also include
space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver accommodations and inter -modal freight
handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is typically required. Adequate expansion
area is often a factor when selecting a site so that expansion can be accommodated without the
need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate freeway is essential and must be located in areas
that are relatively free from congestion to enable efficient freight movements. Aside from
transportation facilities, power, and modern communications, some transportation uses may not
necessarily require the full complement of other urban facilities and services.
• Retail Trade- Convenient access to I -5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements
from I -5 in Central Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and
may raise site requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street arterial
is good and access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts
regional shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and medium retailers cannot be met.
The anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and
medium retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor.
4.4 Projection of Needed Employment Sites
This section projects the City of Central Point's employment land needs. OAR Chapter 660, Division
009 requires estimates of land needs by the number of sites demanded. Individual site needs must be
identified because employment sites must be supplied in whole units9. This is especially true for large sites.
For example, a site for a large warehousing and freight forwarding operation can easily be 50 or more
acres or a site for large shopping center can be 30 or more acres. These types of uses have minimum site
sizes and below those minimum sizes there is not adequate land to meet the needs of these employers.
Thus, it is very possible for a city to have 200 acres of industrial land that is vacant within its UGB but if
all of this land supply consists of parcels seven acres or less scattered around the UGB then there is no
single site that would meet that projected demand.
If demand (or need) is not projected by site type, it then becomes impossible to later analyze the land
supply to determine its adequacy to supply the number or required sites. Central Point's projections of
site needs are based upon potential site size demand ratios or splits. Essentially, the aggregate acreage
9 In simple terms, two three acre sites cannot have their acreage added to be one six acre site. If an employer needs
a six acre site then a six acre whole unit employment site must be provided or put another way fractions of needed
sites cannot be summed to satisfy discreet site needs.
Page 33 of 49 35
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
demanded in Section 4.2 is broken down according to the size ratio splits within each major development
pattern category.
4.4.1 20 -Year Demand for Needed Sites
Table 4.4 -1 depicts the number of needed sites by type. It uses typical site sizes for each development
pattern type consistent with the above site requirements analysis. The demand ratio splits represent the
following break downs:
• Ten Percent Large /Thirty Percent Medium /Sixty Percent Small
• Thirty Percent Large /Forty Percent Medium /Thirty Percent Small
• Forty Percent Large /Fifty Percent Medium /Ten Percent Small
Table 4.4 -1
Estimate of Sites Demanded for Central Point UGB (2013 -2033)
(Source: Oregon Employment Department; City of Central Point)
The 10/30/60 percent ratio is not expected to be adequate for land use planning purposes from a
discreet site demand standpoint for several reasons. First, most of Central Point's existing employment
Page 34 of 49 36
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
lands base is downtown or along Highway 99. The existing development patterns of these areas are
almost exclusively small sites with a handful of medium sites scattered throughout. Thus, the existing
employment land base is already skewed toward a supply of small sites. Second, if it turns out that
demand for small sites is higher than initially planned and supplies are running low in five to ten years
from the time of the last UGB amendment, it is then much easier to add additional smaller sites because
a UGB amendment is not required; all that is required is additional land division.
The site demand number differences between the 30/40/30 ratio split and the 40/50/10 ratio split are
not too significant. Planning for land demands between these two splits is prudent and is expected to
adequately capture demand for large and medium sites while still supplying an adequate number of
smaller sites over time.
4.4.2 Short -Term Demand Estimates
OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 also requires an estimate of short -term employment land demand — the
demand expected to accrue over the next five years. This requirement creates a small numbersproblem for a
community the size of Central Point. In the cases of large office sites and large and medium industrial or
commercial sites, the projected demand (even under the 40/50/10 ratio split) over the twenty year period
results in numbers that range from 7 to 2. Quartering these numbers to attain some theoretical "five -year
demand" results in numbers that range from less than two to less than one. Several of the categories
essentially translate to demand that is one every eight or ten years on average and assuming a stochastic
demand during the period. With numbers this small, it would be hubris to project that this demand
would occur within or without of the initial five years of any given twenty -year planning period. As such,
for these large site categories, land use plans should seek to supply the full twenty -year projected demand
as short -term demand as well. It can reasonably be assumed that small site demand is 25 percent of the
20 -year demand because the small sites do not have this same small numbers problem.
5 Employment Land Base Analysis
After identifying economic opportunities in Section 3 and estimating land demand in Section 4, the next
step in the Goal 9 process is to evaluate the land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which
there is a projected demand over the next twenty years. Central Point updates its general buildable lands
information on a regular basis and this information has been used as the starting point to analyze the land
base from a more specific Goal 9 perspective.
The land base is categorized according to development pattern types: commercial retail, office, industrial,
campus, and a handful of specific uses. Lands are classified as vacant or developed. Classification of
developed or vacant relied upon a number of data sources such as 2012 aerial photos, assessor data, and
field inspections. The developed lands are classified as large, medium or small according to the three
main development pattern types and judgment about the size of the site. For vacant lands, classification
of both size and development pattern type is required. This is because some office development patterns
are allowed in both industrial and commercial plan designations. Thus, classification into the
development pattern type was based in part on the applicable regulations (i.e. industrial in industrial areas
and commercial in commercial areas) and also on local knowledge for locating office uses on specific
sites where office uses would be expected to be the highest and best use and consistent with overall levels
of office use relative to other development in the City.
Page 35 of 49 37
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Central Point has a considerable amount of "TOD Mixed Use" designated lands and, from a regulatory
standpoint, much of these lands can be used for either residential or employment uses. The policies
underlying this regulatory framework are intended to mix appropriate uses for transportation and other
communal benefit reasons. However, this makes concrete categorical inventorying of employment lands
on a strict regulatory basis problematic.
Thus a more subjective and qualitative approach to land base categorization is required. For built lands,
the approach is straightforward because lands were categorized according to the built nature of the site.
For vacant lands, the site requirements of employment uses are such that only certain lands within the
TOD Mixed Use designated areas are well located for typical employment uses. Employment uses are
likely to out - compete residential uses for the primary use of TOD Mixed Use designated lands and
therefore it can be assumed that the primary use of these lands will be employment. Many of the TOD
Mixed Use designated lands are ill- located for employment uses but are well located for residential uses
and these can and are assumed to be primarily used for residential purposes. This narrows the inventory
categorization down to a relatively small number of sites that are well located for both residential and
employment; these lands were categorized based upon local knowledge and reviewed through the public
process. Such categorizations may be ultimately inaccurate on a site -by -site basis when the properties are
actually developed in the future. Rather, it is expected that on average the categorization will be
approximately close and is assumed to be adequate for purpose of supply of sites for the City's
employment land needs as a whole.
The land base inventory methods described above are reflected in the below Figures 5 -1 and 5 -2.
Page 36 of 49 38
City of Central Point
Figure 5 -1
Central Point Employment Lands Inventory Map
(Source: Jackson County Assessor; City of Central Point; CSA Planning Ltd.)
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
City of Central Point
Employment Lands Inventory
VV.LSON RD
■UPTON RD-� /rrrrrrr�r�rrrr
V!L
l
1 1 - ■
1
1 1 ! ■
1 1
1 1
1 <.
i
41L
- � r -1
- - - — - - — -r�����r��r'��r�r..wr ::E:L�Nrrrrarr� �rrrrr/
0 1,000 2,000 Feet
' ' TOD Mixed Use 'Industrial Agg
1- -
��40 Large Office
- Medium Retail School Campus
Industrial
- Large Industrial
Medium Office
Small Retail Vacant Employment Land
® Commercial
_ Medium Industrial
Small Office
- Church Developed (Non - Employment)
UGB
- Small Industrial
- Large Retail
- State Police Not Employment Land
Upon completion of the land inventory and its incorporation into the City's Geographic Information
System (GIS), the database is then available for the further analysis presented in this section. The analysis
begins with a review of the built employment lands because the existing land base can inform projections
of future needs. Moreover, the Central Point Economic Element actually uses this "population" of
employment lands as an input for future land need forecasting in Section 4 above. Under these
Page 37 of 49 39
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
circumstances, a more detailed review of the built employment lands is necessary to assure that the
existing "population" is not skewed in ways that render it inappropriate to forecast future needs.
The second part of the employment land base analysis focuses on the vacant lands. These lands are
potentially available to meet immediate and long term employment land demands. The supply of these
lands must be characterized so that the employment land supply within the existing UGB can be
reconciled with the demand projected over the next twenty years.
5.1 Built Employment Lands
Table 5.1 -1 below breaks down built employment lands within the UGB by site size and development
Pattern type.
Table 5.1 -1
Built Lands by Development Pattern Type
(Source: Jackson County Assessor, City of Central Point, CSA Planning Ltd.)
Page 38 of 49 4
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
The retail and office data depicts reasonable and typical total acreages for a community the size of
Central Point. For example, the International Council on Shopping Centers gCSC) estimates the national
average is 46.6 square feet of retail per capita. Central Point has approximately 43 square feet of retail per
capita. However, the retail and office appear somewhat skewed to small sites. This can be explained in-
part from Central Point's economic history. Most of Central Point's retail and office land developed
during the period when the City functioned as a service center and market for the surrounding
Page 39 of 49 41
Number of
Average Percent
Large Retail
Acres
12.1
Parcels Parcel
2
Size
6.1
Split
12.8%
Medium Retail
20.2
11
1.8
21.4%
Small Retail
62.1
128
0.4
65.8%
Retai/ Subtotal
94.4
141
0.6
Large Office
0.0
0
0.0
0.0%
Medium Office
12.8
11
1.2
26.5%
Small Office
35.5
68
0.5
73.5%
Office Subtotal
48.3
79
0.6
Industrial Agg
41.8
8
5.2
38.0%
Large Industrial
20.2
1
20.2
Medium Industrial
52.0
21
2.5
31.8%
Small industrial
49.3
51
1.0
30.2%
Industrial Subtotal
163.3
81
2.0
Grand Total
306
301
1.0
Large Retail
Numberof
Acres
12.1
Parcels
2
Average
Parcel Size
6.1
Size Percent
split
13.6%
Medium Retail
20.2
11
1.8
22.8%
Small Retail
56.4
128
0.4
63.6%
Retail5ubtotal
88.7
141
0.6
Large Office
0.0
0
0.0
0.0%
Medium Office
12.8
11
1.2
26.5%
Small Office
35.5
68
0.5
73.5%
Office Subtotal
48.3
79
0.6
Industrial Agg
41.8
8
5.2
38.0%
Large Industrial
20.2
1
20.2
Medium Industrial
52.0
21
2.5
31.8%
Small industrial
49.3
51
1.0
30.2%
Industrial Subtotal
163.3
81
2.0
Grand Total
300.3
301
1.0
The retail and office data depicts reasonable and typical total acreages for a community the size of
Central Point. For example, the International Council on Shopping Centers gCSC) estimates the national
average is 46.6 square feet of retail per capita. Central Point has approximately 43 square feet of retail per
capita. However, the retail and office appear somewhat skewed to small sites. This can be explained in-
part from Central Point's economic history. Most of Central Point's retail and office land developed
during the period when the City functioned as a service center and market for the surrounding
Page 39 of 49 41
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
agricultural community. The development patterns common during those days were small one -story
offices and shops in a downtown area. Then the City went through a residential growth period but the
City's population itself did not have sufficient independent buying power to out - compete Medford for
larger scale retail and office development. More recently, Central Point has grown sufficiently that it can
now compete with Medford for some larger retail and office uses such as the Albertsons /Furniture Row
shopping center and Providence Hospital's new medical facility.
Central Point has a good distribution of built industrial lands. However, the total industrial development
may be somewhat lower than other communities of similar size. Central Point has been challenged,
historically, for larger industrial employers due to siting of large industrial uses in Medford (just south of
Central Point) and also competing with the significant inventory of industrial lands in the White City area.
Another way to assess the relative positioning of the built employment land base is to look at land values
across plan designations. The Jackson County Assessor's office estimates "real market" land values for
all lands in Jackson County. It is well known that the Assessor's "real market value" may not necessarily
be accurate for specific properties when those properties are actually sold. The values tend to be
reasonably close to the real market numbers on average and certainly adequate for purposes of
generalized comparisons across a large census of properties and this is what is analyzed below in Tables
5.1 -2 and 5.1 -3.
Table 5.1 -2
Average Real Market Land Value per Square Foot by Comprehensive Plan Designation
(Source: Jackson County Assessor, • City of Central Point; CSA Planning Ltd.)
Comp Plan Tax Lots Mean
(Main Designation) (Count) (Land $ /ft.)
Commercial 45 $8.70
Industrial 39 $3.35
Mixed Use 86 $6.31
Table 5.1 -3
ANOVA Land Value per Square Foot by Comprehensive Plan Designation
(Source: Jackson County Assessor; City of Central Point; CSA Planning Ltd.)
Analysis of Variance
Source of Variation SS df MS F P -value
Between Groups 599.7 2 299.9 26.7 8.66E -11
Within Groups 1875.3 167 11.2
The above tables compare mean real market land values per -foot across comprehensive plan map
designations. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) indicates the differences in mean values depicted in
Table 5.1 -2 are not the result of random sampling error or chance. In simplified statistical terms, this
means the differences are "real". From a land use planning perspective, the average mean values across
plan designations is reasonably consistent with expectations:
Page 40 of 49 42
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
• The best positioned commercial land is the most valuable per square foot. These lands are
closest to I -5 and therefore command the highest values. Overall, these commercial values are
still somewhat low when compared to similar lands in Medford and, therefore, Central Point
represents a relative land price advantage when compared to the City of Medford.
• TOD mixed use lands in the downtown area are likely to have relatively high values but these are
likely weighed down by the legacy commercial development on Highway 99. The actual
differential in value is $2.39 per square foot when compared to the commercial land. This
indicates that much of this land which is developed for commercial uses is still reasonably well
positioned for continued commercial tenancy and should be able to support some of the City's
more intensive TOD objectives over time.
• As expected, the industrial values are much lower than the values in the TOD and traditional
commercial areas. The industrial land values are generally consistent with regional averages and
may actually be somewhat on the high -side. This indicates that demand exists but may also mean
that the City could find itself at a price disadvantage in the future if vacant land inventories
became too tight because industrial users tend to be the most price sensitive of the employment
land categories.
Overall, the "population of built employment lands" in Central Point appears to have adequate total
acreage and diversity of development pattern types to function as an appropriate base from which to
estimate future demands. Average employment land values do not exhibit unexpected relationships and
indicate a normally functioning market that reasonably well positioned from a regional standpoint.
5.2 Employment Land Supply
The employment land supply analysis in this section evaluates lands within the existing UGB for their
ability to satisfy projected employment land needs for the next twenty years. This analysis is required to
evaluate the supply of sites to meet both short -term and long -term demands. The analysis also evaluates
redevelopment potential and the efficiency of the City's employment land base.
5.2.1 Vacant Land Supply
Vacant land for employment land supply in analysis under OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 is a defined as
follows:
(14) "Vacant Land" means a lot or parcel:
(a) Equal to or larger than one half -acre not currently containing permanent buildings or
improvements; or
(b) Equal to or larger than five acres where less than one half -acre is occupied by permanent buildings
or improvements.
The rule is silent on the land use designations to which this designation applies. For the Central Point
Economic Element, this definition was applied to all lands with a commercial or industrial
comprehensive plan map designation and to those TOD Mixed Use designated lands that are expected to
be "suitable" under OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 for employment lands. For all such lands, the
Page 41 of 49 43
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
definition of vacant lands in OAR Chapter 660, Division 009 was applied. The lands identified as vacant
are depicted in Figure 5.2 -1 below.
Figure 5.2 -1
Central Point Vacant Employment Lands Map
(Source: Jackson County Assessor, City of Central Point; CSA Planning Ltd.)
City of Central Point
Vacant Employment Lands By Type
�rrr� � W�LdON RD
I I t'9
I ;
\
,tlir
■■a- ■U'7ON RD- ■■rr r. r r■r r r r ■r
♦ • ■ W vltkS RD
I 1 ♦ ■ n
�.
lb
I 1 . ■ r.��'� a
I 1 •
I 1
� 1
I /
Ott
I •� ♦� _
��
:a-
ter,.. tiF``N � � ✓�
-7..
♦ a
• 1 �
\ 1
1 s ■
•rA .EA:.t
f• rrrrrra rrr` wrrrrrLrrrrr�rLrrrr :,�'��'r:1rrrrr■■'
•rr■■r■
Comp Plan Land Type
TOD Mixed Use . Large Industrial Large Office ■ Large Retail ti : UGB
-
Industrial Medium Industrial Medium Office Medium Retail
El Commercial Small Industrial Small Office Small Retail 0 1,000 2,000 Feet
L�
Page 42 of 49 44
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
The vacant lands map shows that most of the available employment lands are east of Interstate 5. This is
almost universal for the supply of vacant industrial lands and the commercial land base includes some
vacant commercial and office sites located in the Twin Creeks TOD area.
Goal 9 requires an analysis of the short -term supply of sites (which are essentially sites that can be
developed within one year). Most all of the City's vacant lands have frontage on higher order street or on
streets that are intended to serve employment uses. Access to the employment lands in the Twin Creeks
TOD is constrained by a railroad crossing and thus someone might argue that these lands should notbe
included as part of the short -term supply because they cannot be ready for development in one year.
However, these lands do have access and could be developed and the crossing is recommended for the
next ODOT improvement cycle which would give anyone doing development in this area some
confidence if they can operate for a couple years without the raild crossing. Other than the Twin Creek
sites, all the other vacant lands appear to have services that are readily available and are planned and
zoned for their intended employment uses. It is expected that most all of the vacant employment lands
in Central Point could serve as short -term supply and therefore a more detailed short -term supply
analysis is unnecessary.
Table 5.1 -3
Central Point Vacant Employment Lands by Site Type
(Source: Jackson County Assessor, City of Central Point, • CSA Planning Ltd.)
Large Retail
30.9
2
15.5
51%
Medium Retail
14.6
3
4.9
24%
Small Retail
15.1
12
1.3
25%
Retail Subtotal
60.6
17
3.6
Large Office
5.6
1
5.6
33%
Medium Office
5.8
5
1.2
34%
Small Office
_ 5.5
5
1.1
33%
Office Subtotal
16.9
11
1.5
Large Industrial
17.0
1
17.0
31%
Medium Industrial
0.0
0
0.0
0%
Small Industrial
37.2
11
3.4
69%
Industrial Subtotal
54.2
12
4.5
Grand Total
131.8
40
3.3
Table 5.1 -3 depicts the vacant employment sites by major development pattern type and size. The ratios
of available supply for retail and office across size categories are reasonably well distributed. The City has
no supply of medium industrial sites and therefore there is both a short -term and long -term supply
deficiency in this category.
Page 43 of 49 45
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
From a qualitative standpoint, most of the commercial and office employment sites are reasonably well
located and configured to meet current and future market demands. There are two commercial sites with
excellent visibility from I -5 but access to them is somewhat circuitous behind the existing Holiday Inn
Express. The Twin Creeks sites are constrained by the railroad right -of -way as above described. There is
another long narrow site just south of the Albertson's Center that comprises just over five acres. It has a
dwelling and other development that uses less than one half acre and therefore must be inventoried as
vacant. However, it is ill configured to meet any new commercial or office needs unless it was used for
expansion of the existing Albertson's Center.
Most of the industrial sites are well configured and well located and most of the available inventory is
located in the triangular area located between East Pine Street, Bear Creek and Table Rock Road. In
some ways, this land may be too well located for some industrial users. Between the commercial nearby,
proximity to the airport and the freeway, it is possible that the price per foot may be too high for certain
types of larger industrial users. For small and a few medium industrial users, the Table Rock Road
inventory assures that a range of site qualities and associated pricing is available in the City's inventory.
5.2.2 Vacant Supply vs. Demand Reconciliation
With the supply of sites defined and the demand characterized in 4.4 above, it is possible to reconcile the
supply of vacant sites in relation to the projected demand. This is the last major step to determine the
adequacy of the UGB to meet long -term employment land needs.
Table 5.2 -2
Central Point Vacant Employment Lands by Site Type
(Source: Jackson County Assessor, City of Central Point; CSA Planning Ltd.)
Typical Site
Size Supply-Demand
In Aggregate
30/40/30
1 1
1
(net acres)
Large Retail
20
(net acres)
number
1
20
b-
0
0
Medium Retail
4.5
-3
- 13.5
-4
-18
Small Retail
1
-7
-7
5
5
Total Retail Acres
-0.1
-0.5
-13
Large Office _
5
�I
-1
-5
-1
-5
Medium Office
1.5
-1
-1.5
-3
-4.5
Small Office
0.5
-8
I
-4
-10.5
r 0
0
Total Office Acres -4.5
-9.5
Large Industrial
30
-1
-30
-1
-30
Medium Industrial
6
I -2
-12
-2
-12
Small Industrial
1
4
4
8
8
Total Industrial Acres
-46.91---.
-38
-49.0
-34
Grand Total -51.5
-56.5
Page 44 of 49 46
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
Table 5.2 -2 shows that the City's UGB has a deficit of approximately 52 net developable acres; this
translates to a deficit of approximately 59 to 67 gross acres using typical public facilities ratios of 15% to
30 %.10 When analyzed from a site supply standpoint, the City has small supply deficits in almost all
medium and large site categories and has small deficits or surpluses in the small sites categories. Only the
large retail sites category has a surplus under the 30/40/30 ratio split and this is only a one site surplus
over the planning period.
5.2.3 Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency Analysis
The City of Central Point's built employment land base has relatively limited redevelopment potential.
Most of the built sites consist of relatively small lots with one and two story buildings. This
configuration does not lend itself well to redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the
supply and demand for sites over a twenty year period because this would require the demolition and
aggregation of parcels. While this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is unlikely to be
economically viable in Central Point on a scale that would actually alter long -term supply and demand
projections for employment lands. This quantitative determination should not be construed to mean that
there are not good qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along
Highway 99.
There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along Table Rock Road. Several parcels there
contain residential uses that could be developed for employment uses under the Comprehensive Plan.
Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is an area where relatively inexpensive small
industrial sites are available to own and where there are limited development requirements that add
overhead. In some ways, this area is important employment land for certain types of firms that have ever
fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost - effective. As such, aggressive redevelopment
planning policies for this area may seem to be a great aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and
unintended economic consequences. Moreover, without relatively massive financial incentives for
significant redevelopment that would change the overall quality of development in this area, lesser
redevelopment policies tend to have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development
projects that would trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties.
The planned employment land base in the City of Central Point is efficient as planned. The TOD Mixed
Use designations encourage efficiency through a wide swath of the City's employment land base. These
designations and associated zoning allow for creative design and intensification of use. Because there are
deficits in all categories of employment land, it is not possible to redesignate lands from one employment
category to another to render the land base more efficient. Without a simultaneous Housing Element
review it is not possible to know if surplus residential lands exist that could be redesignated for
employment purposes. However, there are really only two areas (Twin Creeks and the area east of
Hamrick Road and north of Beebe Road) that are not developed. It seems implausible that there is room
for more than ten thousand additional people within these two relatively small areas over the next twenty
years sufficient to also have room to accommodate significant employment land deficits.
10 The "public facilities ratio" is the average percentage of a site that is devoted to streets or other public facilities, or
is otherwise unavailable for development.
Page 45 of 49 47
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
6 Goals, Conclusions and Policies
This section sets forth the conclusions from the foregoing analysis as well as the City's economic
development goals and policies. The goals and policies in this section have been coordinated with, and
endorse, the economic goals in the City's Strategic Plan". The City's goals and policies are:
6.1 Goal: General Economic Development
1. To actively promote a strong, diversified, and sustainable local economy, that reinforces Central
Point's_ "small town feel "12 and family orientation while preserving or enhancing the quality of
life in the community as a place to live, work, and play.
2. To create incentives to encourage and support economic development;
3. To encourage and promote the development or enhancement of retail and office areas to achieve
a vibrant shopping, entertainment, living and working experience in the downtown area.
4. To encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, and state agencies,
and local businesses concerning economic development, education, and workforce development.
5. To encourage and support growth, particularly in the targeted industries (retail, specialty food
manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors).
6. To maintain at all times an adequate supply of suitable short -term (five -year) employment lands.
7. To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual identifying and
monitoring economic development strategies and programs available to the City.
Through the development of its Economic Element, the City of Central Point has reached the following
conclusions and policies relative to the above cited general economic goals:
Central Point concludes that effective economic development actions necessary to diversify the
City's economic base requires an understanding of, and a careful balance between regional
cooperation and competition. It is important to understand and pro - actively participate in the
broader state and regional economic development discussions. Participating in regional
economic development programs like SOREDI and the Rogue Valley Workforce Development
Council can improve the regional economic climate and a strong regional economy will benefit
all communities within the region. Most importantly, to be an effective participant the City must
recognize its competitive advantage within the region and compete for those economic
development opportunities within the region for which the Central Point is well positioned.
2. Central Point concludes that the pursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance
between short -term and long -term economic objectives. The City recognizes that some
opportunities may warrant short -term incentives to achieve longer term employment or property
tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long -term benefit and may
not warrant the short -term fiscal cost of incentives.
3. Central Point concludes that the economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities for
which the City is well positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic economic
forces require the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on opportunities as they arise.
11 Central Point Forward, Fair City Vision 2020, City Wide Strategic Plan, April 26, 2007
12 As defined in the Urbanization Element of the Comprehensive Plan.
Page 46 of 49 48
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
The City's economic development goals will be managed through the following policies:
6.1.1 Policy 1.1
The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming of
alternative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including education and
workforce development that are consistent with the City's economic development goals. .
6.1.2 Policy 1.2
The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and fiscal policies as they relate to
economic development to ensure that the City's economic development programming can be effectively
implemented.
6.1.3 Policy 1.3
Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can be
demonstrated that the short -term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and the long-
term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City.
6.2 Goal: Economic Opportunities Synthesis
The Economic Element contains both qualitative and quantitative evaluations of the City's economic
assets and challenges. The conclusions and policies in this section express the City's synthesis of these
qualitative and quantitative findings and identify appropriate economic opportunities, as follows:
1. Central Point concludes that the region has a demonstrated strength in the truck transportation
and truck support services sectors and that Central Point residents working in this segment of
the local economy are well compensated. Exit 35 is well situated to capitalize on growth in the
trucking and transportation warehousing industry segments. ODOT's plans for the interchange
contemplate that its design and the associated local street network will continue to prioritize
freight movements. The interchange is relatively free from urban traffic that might otherwise
impede the industrial, aggregate and freight traffic that utilize the interchange. Central Point has
an opportunity to work with ODOT and Jackson County to assure that plans for this
interchange reflect the opportunities for expanded truck transportation and transportation
support services in the area and do so in a manner that will maximize the long -term potential for
growth in this industry at this location.
2. Central Point concludes that commercial retail site requirements are specific and Central Point
will need to plan for its competitive niche. Central Point is close to Jackson County Airport,
Jackson County Expo and Interstate 5. Collectively, proximity to these major regional draws, in
association with the City's continued population growth, will create opportunities to capture and
expand its competitive retail niche.
3. Central Point concludes that the City has experienced the development of a small specialty foods
cluster that includes Rogue Creamery and Lillie Belle Farms (chocolatiers). These firms produce
high quality products that have gained regional and national acclaim. Expansion of these firms
and /or attraction of similar firms have the potential to gain the City notoriety for a unique
industry segment that has potential for growth over time.
Page 47 of 49 49
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
4. Central Point concludes that maintaining and improving the overall quality of life in the City is a
qualitative measure that is not easy to quantify but is and will continue to be important for the
City's economic prosperity.
5. Central Point concludes that design and layout of the built environment affects the overall
aesthetics and livability of the City. Balanced land use and development regulations that control
design without stifling creativity have the potential to improve the aesthetic of the City while
reducing or eliminating land use conflicts. The standards and levels of design performance
should differentiate between areas and land uses.
6.2.1 Policy 2.1
Central Point concludes that the City has experienced the loss of cottage industry and expanding small
businesses due to a lack of vacant available employment related buildings (flex- space13) and the City
cannot attract small businesses from elsewhere for the same reason.
6.2.2 Policy 2.2
The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, plan the Exit 35 area — also called "Area CP -1B
(Tolo)" — in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic opportunities, especially for
transportation -based economic activity and truck /rail freight support services. This area also contains an
aeronautics manufacturing company in Erickson Air Crane and serves aggregate uses; these uses have
many specific and unique dimensions that should be carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations
applicable to this area need to account for the site requirements of firms in these sectors.
6.2.3 Policy 2.3
The City shall periodically evaluate its regulations for employment related development, particularly as
relates to the targeted industries, and compatibility with adjacent non - employment lands, to ensure that
the regulations are consistent with applicable "Best Practices "14. Regulations found to no longer be
appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable thereafter.
6.3 Goal: Employment Land Supply and Development
The Economic Element contains both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the City's land supplies
and employment land development patterns. This section sets forth the City's conclusions and policies
that result from this analysis, as follows:
1. Central Point concludes that urban facilities and services are critical for the development of
employment lands. Thus, the City's Goal 11 Public Facilities and Services planning and Goal 12
Transportation Planning are critical to the timely delivery of infrastructure necessary to support
economic development.
13 An industrial or commercial /office building designed to provide the flexibility to utilize the floor space in a
variety of configurations. Usually provides a configuration allowing a flexible amount of office or showroom space
in combination with manufacturing, laboratory, warehouse distribution, etc.
14 A best practice is a method or technique that has consistently shown results superior to those achieved with
other means, and that is used as a benchmark.
Page 48 of 49 50
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element
2. Central Point concludes that it must maintain an adequate supply of employment land. The City
has deficits in nearly all development pattern categories according to findings in Table 5.2 -2.
The City will need to periodically expand its present UGB to ensure an adequate 5 -year and 20-
year supply of buildable employment land.
3. Central Point concludes that the availability of vacant buildings (flex- space) for expanding small
businesses is in short supply and that an effort should be made to encourage its development to
expand the city's inventory of flex - space.
6.3.1 Policy 3.1
The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and transportation
facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of competitive short -term buildable
lands sufficient to meet employment needs within a five -year period, particularly for the retail, specialty
foods, health care, and trucking sectors.
6.3.2 Policy 3.2
The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short -term employment lands in the medium and large
site categories equivalent to the twenty -year demand for those categories15. The supply of short -term
employment land shall be reviewed and updated annually. When it is determined that the supply of land
as measured in terms of number of sites and /or acreage in the medium and large site categories is
inadequate to serve the twenty -year needs then the City shall amend its UGB to include additional short -
term (5 -year) employment lands.
6.3.3 Policy 3.2
The City shall pursue and encourage Turnkey Design and Build solutions for flex -space that create
opportunities for expanding small businesses in Central Point, and may consider economic development
incentives to attract and `marry' the construction and development component with the small business
component as an inducement to development, but only when it can be demonstrated that: the short -term
consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and the long -term consequences are
determined to be beneficial to the City.
15 Conclusion 6.3(3)
Page 49 of 49 51
EXHIBIT " g IF
PLANNING COMMISSION RESOLUTION NO.
A RESOLUTION FORWARDING A FAVORABLE RECOMMENDATION TO THE
CITY COUNCIL TO APPROVE THE CITY OF CENTRAL POINT ECONOMIC
ELEMENT
FILE NO. 13010
Applicant: City of Central Point
WHEREAS, the City's Economic Element was last approved in 1984 as part of the City's
Comprehensive Plan; and
WHEREAS, since 1984 conditions have changed necessitating an update of the City's
Economic Element as a necessary step in determining the City's employment land needs; and
WHEREAS, the proposed Economic Element has been prepared in accordance with all
applicable Oregon Laws, Oregon Administrative Rules, and Oregon Statewide Land Use
Planning Goals and the City's Comprehensive Plan.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City of Central Point Planning
Commission, by this Resolution No. , does hereby forward a favorable recommendation
to the City Council to approve the updated Economic Element as presented in attached
Exhibit "A ". This recommendation is based on the draft Planning Commission Economic
Element Findings dated May 7, 2013 and incorporated herein by reference.
PASSED by the Planning Commission and signed by me in authentication of its passage this
7th day of May, 2013.
Planning Commission Chair
ATTEST:
City Representative
Approved by me this 7th day of May, 2013.
Planning Commission Chair
Planning Commission Resolution No. (05/07/2013) 52
URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY AND
POLICY AGREEMENT
STAFF REPORT
CENTRAL
POINT
O egc`
Community Development
Tom Humphrey, AICP
Community Development Director
STAFF REPORT
May 7, 2013
ITEM:
Central Point /Jackson County Urban Growth Boundary and Policy Agreement Revisions.
STAFF SOURCE:
Yom Humphrey AICP, Community Development Director
BACKGROUND:
The Regional Plan directs that before Central Point can expand its Urban Growth Boundary into any of its
Urban Reserve Areas (URAs), it has to address the Gibbon/Forest Acres area that was not included in a
URA. Specifically the language reads, prior to the expansion of the Central Point Urban Growth
Boundary into any Urban Reserve Area, the City and Jackson County shall adopt an agreement (Area of
Mutual Planning Concern) for the management of Gibbon /Forest Acres Unincorporated Containment
Boundary. The City already has an agreement with Jackson County with one Area of Mutual Planning
Concern in the vicinity of the Seven Oaks Interchange (see Attachment A). Planning staff is advocating a
revision to the existing agreement to include Gibbon/Forest Acres.
Furthermore, the Planning Commission may be aware that the Jackson County Expo was not included in
the Central Point URAs. Ongoing interaction with the Expo Manager and members of the Fair Board
have led us to believe that it would be in the City and County's best interests to include the Expo as a
third Area of Mutual Planning Concern. In fact, the Regional Plan suggests that the Expo land be
reconsidered for inclusion at a later date. Specifically, the language states, (luring the first coordinated
Periodic Review process for the Regional Plan, Jackson County shall consider including the land
occupied by the Jackson County Expo to the City of Central Point Urban Reserve Area.
DISCUSSION:
The City is interested in moving a UGB Amendment forward and needs to account for Gibbon/Forest
Acres in order to do so. Comprehensive Plan Amendment process can be drawn out and, given the
language in the Regional Plan as well as the proactive planning the City has engaged in with the Expo, it
seems reasonable to propose both a second and a third Area of Mutual Planning Concern to the County.
At this time staff is simply introducing the proposal to the Planning Commission and it will also be
presented to the City Council. Should the Council pass a resolution of intent, staff will return to the
Commission with a work schedule. Staff is taking other steps to implement the Regional Plan. All of this
work will involve the Commission over the next 18 -24 months.
ISSUES:
Land use and transportation issues will be vetted once an amendment is initiated.
ATTACHMENTS:
Attachment A: Central Point /Jackson County Urban Growth Boundary and Policy Agreement
Attachment B: Map, Central Point Urban Reserve Areas, Proposed Areas of Mutual Planning Concern
ACTION:
No action required, information only.
RECOMMENDATION:
Ask questions of Community Development staff for clarification. 53
EXHIBIT "A"
CENTRAL POINT /JACKSON COUNTY
URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY AND POLICY AGREEMENT
(REVISED 1998)
This agreement made and entered into this day of 20, by and between the City of
Central Point, a municipal corporation, hereinafter called "City" and Jackson County, a
political subdivision of the State of Oregon, hereinafter called "County ".
WHEREAS, under ORS 197 - State Land Use Goal 14, Urbanization, the
"Establishment and change of the boundary shall be a cooperative process between a city
and the county or counties that surround it "; and
WHEREAS, pursuant to authority granted by Oregon Revised Statutes and
Charter of the City of Central Point, the City and County propose to enter into an
agreement to adopt an urban growth boundary, policies, and revision procedures for the
Central Point urbanizable area,
THEREFORE, the City and County adopt the following urban growth policies
which shall serve as the basis for decisions pertaining to development and land uses in
the area between the City limits of Central Point and its urban - growth boundary, and
other lands that are of mutual interest or are of significant importance to Central Point's
long -range growth and development.
DEFINITIONS
Area of Mutual Planning Concern: A geographical area lying beyond the adopted
urban growth boundary in which the City and County have an interest in terms of
that area's types and levels of development, land uses, environment, agriculture,
and other unique characteristics. The area is not subject to annexation within the
current planning period but may be in the path of longer -range urban growth.
Therefore, the City and County will fully coordinate land use activity within this
area.
2. Contract Annexation: A process whereby the City, County, and other involved parties
enter into a contract that permits:
A) The parties to administer urban land use regulations on the development of
property following an annexation decision while the property remains
under County jurisdiction; and
B) The City to annex property developed to City densities and uses, with the
improvement to appear on the County tax rolls prior to the effective date
54
of annexation, resulting in a greater benefit to the tax base of the
community.
3. Develop: To bring about growth or create new opportunities for growth; to cause the
expansion of available lands; to extend public facilities or services; to construct,
alter or expand a structure; to conduct a mining operation; to make a change in the
use of appearance of land; to divide land into smaller parcels; to create or
terminate rights of access, etc.
4. Subdivide or Partition Land: The act of dividing the legal ownership of land into
smaller units, as set forth in Oregon Revised Statutes 92.010.
Urban/Public Facilities and Services: Basic facilities that are planned for and provided
by either the private or public sector, and are essential to the support of
development in accordance with the City's Comprehensive Plan. Such facilities
and services include, but are not limited to, police and fire protection, sanitary
facilities, public water and storm drain facilities; planning, zoning, and
subdivision controls; health services; recreation facilities and services; energy and
communication services; and community governmental services including schools
and transportation.
6. Urban Growth Boundary: A site specific line on the Official Plan and Zoning Map of
Jackson County, which identifies and encompasses urban and urbanizable lands
within the County, including:
A) URBAN LAND: Residential areas generally comprised of parcels smaller
than one acre, or highly developed commercial and industrial areas which
are within incorporated cities or which contain concentrations of persons
who reside or work in the areas, including land adjacent to and outside
cities, and which have supporting urban public facilities and services.
B) URBANIZABLE LAND: Areas within an officially adopted urban growth
boundary which are needed for the expansion of that urban area, and
which have been determined to be necessary and suitable for development
as future urban land and which can be served with necessary urban public
facilities and services.
URBAN GROWTH POLICIES
The City of Central Point shall have primary responsibility for all future urban
level development that takes place within the City and urban growth boundary
area. Additionally:
A) All urban level development shall conform to City standards, shall be
consistent with the adopted City Comprehensive Plan, and shall meet all
appropriate requirements of the City Zoning Ordinance and Map.
55
B) The term "urban level development" shall be generally defined, for
purposes of this agreement, as any commercial or industrial development,
and any residential development, partitioning, or subdivision that creates
actual or potential densities greater than allowed by the City's Residential
Low - density District (R -L). The expansion or major alteration of legally
existing commercial or industrial use shall also be considered urban level
development.
C) Urban level development proposals submitted through County processes
must be accompanied by a contract to annex to the City.
2. A change in the use of urbanizable land from a use designated on the Jackson
County Comprehensive Plan/Zoning Map to uses shown on the City
Comprehensive Plan shall occur only upon annexation or contractual intent to
annex to the City. Additionally:
A) Development of land for uses designated on the Comprehensive Plan shall
be encouraged on vacant or underdeveloped lands adjacent to or within the
City limits prior to the conversion of other lands within the urban growth
boundary.
B) Urban facilities and services must be adequate in condition and capacity to
accommodate the additional level of growth, as allowed by the
Comprehensive Plan, prior to or concurrent with the land use changes.
C) The City may initiate annexation and zone changes of lands outside the
City limits and within the UGB that are under a County "Exclusive Farm
Use" designation or otherwise enjoying farm- related tax incentives when
such lands are needed for urban development.
3. City annexation shall only occur within the framework of the City's
Comprehensive Plan and within the Urban Growth Boundary.
4. Except as provided in Policy 9 of this agreement, specific annexation decisions
shall be governed by the City of Central Point. The City will provide
opportunities for the County and all affected agencies to respond to pending
requests for annexation with the response time limited to sixty days to minimize
any unnecessary and costly delay in processing.
5. The establishment of the Urban Growth Boundary does not imply that all lands
within the Boundary must be annexed to the City.
6. Jackson County shall retain jurisdiction over any land use decisions, other than
annexations, within the unincorporated urbanizable area, in conformance with
these adopted policies. Additionally:
5,6
A) The City shall be requested to respond to pending applications for land use
changes in the unincorporated urbanizable area. If no response is received
within fourteen days, the County will assume the City has no objections to
the request
B) The City will request that the County respond to pending applications for
land use changes within the incorporated area which could affect land
under County jurisdiction. If no response is received within fourteen days,
the City will assume the County has no objections to the request.
C) Recognizing that unincorporated areas within the Urban Growth Boundary
could ultimately become part of Central Point, the City's
recommendations will be given due consideration. It is the intent of the
County to administer a mutually adopted City /County policy in the
urbanizable area until such time as the area is annexed.
D) Any application for a subdivision, land partition, or other land division
within the established Urban Growth Boundary of Central Point shall
include the City's written approval of a Conversion Plan for the subject
property, in accordance with the requirements of the City's Conversion
Plan Regulations.
7. Lands in the vicinity of the Seven Oaks Interchange, as delineated on Map 1
attached, are considered unique because of the transportation facilities present.
Although located outside the year 2000 Urban Growth Boundary, this area is
designated an Area of Mutual Planning Concern and shall be protected from
premature development. Additionally:
A) The County shall ensure that the area remains in a rural character so that a
priority is placed on urban development within the UGB, as planned.
B) The Seven Oaks Interchange Area of Mutual Planning Concern shall
retain its present County Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map
designation, or similar "rural" designation, until such time as the area can
be shown to be needed for the City's urbanization, in accordance with the
seven urbanization factors of Statewide goal 14 and a6d the provisions of
this agreement that pertain to City- initiated comprehensive plan
amendments.
8. Lands in the vicinity of and including Gibbon/Forest Acres west of Table Rock
Road, as delineated on Map 2 attached, are considered remote to Central Point at
this time. Although located outside the year 2012 Urban Growth Boundary, this
area is designated an Area of Mutual Planning Concern and shall be protected
from premature or more intense development. Additionally:
57
A) The County shall ensure that the area remains in a rural character so that a
priority is placed on urban development within the UGB and URAs, as
planned.
B) The Gibbon/Forest Acres Area of Mutual Planning Concern shall retain its
present County Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map designation, or
similar "rural" designation, until such time as the area can be shown to be
needed for the City's urbanization or for inclusion in Medford or White
City should it incorporate. Inclusion in a planning area will occur in
accordance with the seven urbanization factors of Statewide goal 14 and
the provisions of this agreement that pertain to City- initiated
comprehensive plan amendments.
9. Lands under the ownership of Jackson County between Gebhard Road and
Interstate -5 north of Pine Street including the Jackson County Expo (fairgrounds)
and property in the ownership of Jackson County adjacent to the Expo as
delineated on Map 3 attached. Although located outside the year 2012 Urban
Growth Boundary, this area is designated an Area of Mutual Planning Concern
and shall be protected from uncoordinated land use development. Additionally:
A) The County shall ensure that all land use planning that occurs will be
coordinated with the City so that a priority is placed on urban development
within the UGB and URAs, as planned.
B) The Jackson County Expo Area of Mutual Planning Concern shall retain
its present County Comprehensive Plan and Zoning Map designation, or
similar "rural" designation, until such time as the area can be shown to be
needed for the City's urbanization, in accordance with the seven
urbanization factors of Statewide goal 14 and the provisions of this
agreement that pertain to City- initiated comprehensive plan amendments.
C) During the first coordinated Periodic Review process for the Regional
Plan, Jackson County shall consider including the land occupied by the
Jackson County Expo to the City of Central Point Urban Reserve Area.
D) The impacts of County development upon City and Regional
infrastructure shall be assessed and mitigated in order to obtain a mutually
beneficial outcome to both entities.
10 -9. Lands within the urbanizable area which currently support a farm use shall be
encouraged, through zoning and appropriate tax incentives, to remain in that use
for as long as is "economically feasible ".
A) "Economically feasible ", as used in this policy, shall be interpreted to
mean feasible from the standpoint of the property owner. Implementation
of this policy will be done on a voluntary basis.
B) "Exclusive Farm" or other appropriate low - intensity rural zoning
designation shall be applied to areas within the UGB by the County for the
purpose of maintaining agricultural land uses and related tax incentives
until such time as planned annexation and urban development occur.
C) "Suburban Residential" or other zoning designations that would permit
non - agri cultural land uses to develop prematurely could result in obstacles
to future planned and coordinated growth and, therefore, should be
restricted to only those areas that are already developed to such levels.
D) Agricultural zoning policies contained herein apply only to areas
identified by the City or County as agricultural lands within the UGB or
Seven Oaks Area of Mutual Planning Concern and shall not be used as a
standard to review other land use applications within these areas.
11 �. The City and County acknowledge the importance of protecting agricultural
lands. Therefore:
A) While properties are in agricultural use, the City will apply the below
standards when adjacent lands are proposed for urban residential
development:
i. To mitigate the potential for vandalism, the development's design
should incorporate the use of visible public or seinipublic open
space adjacent to the agricultural lands.
ii. To mitigate nuisances originating from agricultural noise, odors,
irrigation run -off, and agricultural spray drift, the development's
design should incorporate:
The use of landscaping and berms where a positive
buffering benefit can be demonstrated.
b. The orientation of structures and fencing relative to usable
exterior space such as patios, rear yards and courts, such
that the potential impacts from spray drift, dust, odors, and
noise intrusion are minimized.
C. The design and construction of all habitable buildings,
including window and door locations, should be such that
the potential impact of spray drift, noise, dust, and odors
upon interior living/working areas will be minimized.
59
d. Physical separation between agricultural lands and urban
development shall be utilized to the greatest extent possible
to minimize adverse impacts. Site design emphasizing the
appropriate use of open space areas, streets, and areas not
designed specifically for public recreation or assembly
shall be considered.
B) The City and County mutually agree herewith that the buffering standards
established by Policy #9 have or can and will be met, prior to annexation
or urban development of lands adjacent to the subject properties after
1995.
129. The City of Central Point and Jackson County acknowledge the importance of
protecting resource lands, specifically, agricultural lands zoned Exclusive Farm
Use (EFU) and forest lands zoned Woodland Resource (WR), other than those
that may be within the urbanizable area or in the identified direction of urban
growth. Both jurisdictions will continue to maintain policies pertaining to the
buffering of such lands. Urban development may be allowed to occur on lands
adjacent to resource lands when the controlling jurisdiction determines that such
development will be compatible with the resource land's use or character.
Buffering shall occur on the urbanizable lands adjacent to the UGB as required to
protect the resource lands. Buffering options may include:
A) Special setbacks for new urban structures adjacent to the urban growth
boundary;
B) Acquisition by public agencies;
C) Lower densities at the periphery of the urban growth boundary than
allowed elsewhere in the City;
D) Strategic location of roads, golf courses, or other major public areas or
facilities; and /or
E) Use of vegetative screens, earthen berms, and fences of sufficient height
and substance to help reduce trespass of people, animals, and vehicles.
F) A deed declaration recognizing common, customary, and accepted
farming practices shall be required for all development that is allowed to
occur within three- hundred (300) feet of any land that is zoned for
Exclusive Farm Use.
G) The City shall request the County's recommendations concerning the
buffering of any EFU lands from adjacent urban development.
✓ � O
134. The City, County, and other affected agencies shall coordinate the expansion and
development of all urban facilities and services within the urbanization area.
Additionally:
A) Provisions for urban facilities and services shall be planned in a manner
limiting duplication in an effort to provide greater efficiency and economy
of operation.
B) A single urban facility or service extended into the urbanizable area must
be coordinated with the planned future development of all other facilities
and services appropriate to that area, and shall be provided at levels
necessary for expected uses, as designated in the City's Comprehensive
Plan.
14-2. All County road construction and reconstruction resulting from new development,
redevelopment, or land division, in the urbanizable area shall be to urban
standards, except that the term "reconstruction" does not include normal road
maintenance by the County.
15 -3. Notwithstanding the provisions of any other goal or policy in the comprehensive
plans for Central Point or Jackson County, public water service shall be extended
to serve property owned by Erickson Air Crane Company ( "Erickson ") provided:
A) Property entitled under this policy to receive public water service shall be
limited to land owned by Erickson as described in Exhibit "B" (Exhibit
"B" from County Ordinance 95 -55 describes assessor plat maps 36 -2W-
28, Tax Lots 3500 & 2601).
B) Except for the Erickson property, no other land or improvements located
outside the Urban Growth Boundary shall be pennitted to connect to the
water line serving Erickson unless it is first included in the Urban Growth
Boundary or a "reasons" exception is taken to applicable Statewide band
Use Planning Goals which allows such connection and the owners of such
benefited property sign an irrevocable consent to annex to the City of
Central Point.
C) Prior to beginning construction on the water line, Erickson shall sign an
irrevocable consent to annex its property to Central Point. The irrevocable
consent shall be in a form approved by the City. Erickson shall pay such
fees, if any, which are required as of the date of annexation. The
irrevocable consent to annex shall provide that future annexation will be at
the sole discretion of the City if at some future time Erickson's property is
included within the Urban Growth Boundary.
AMENDMENTS AND CORRECTIONS
M1
The procedure for joint City and County review and amendment of urban growth
boundary and urbanization policies are established as follows:
MAJOR REVISIONS
Major revisions in boundary or policies will be considered amendments to both the City
and County comprehensive plans and, as such, are subject to a legislative review process.
A major revision shall include any boundary change that has widespread and significant
impact beyond the immediate area, such as quantitative changes allowing for substantial
changes in population or significant increases in resource impacts; qualitative changes in
the land use itself, such as conversion of residential to industrial use, or spatial changes
that affect large areas or many different ownerships. Any change in urbanization policies
is considered a major revision.
Major revisions will be considered by the City and County at five -year intervals from the
date of adoption of the urban growth boundary and urbanization policies. If the City and
County governing bodies find that circumstances prevail which have a significant effect
on the public health, safety or general welfare of the community, a major revision could
be considered at intervals of less than five years. It is the intent of the governing bodies
to review the urban growth boundary and urbanization policies for consistency upon
completion of the City and County Comprehensive Plans.
A request for major revision can be initiated by an individual or group, citizen advisory
committees, affected agencies, and governing bodies. The party who seeks the revision
shall be responsible for filing adequate written documentation with the City and County
governing bodies. Final legislative action on major revision requests shall be based on
the following factors:
A) Demonstrated need to accommodate long -range urban population growth
requirements consistent with LCDC goals;
B) Need for housing, employment opportunities, and livability;
C) Orderly and economic provision for public facilities and services;
D) Maximum efficiency of land uses within and on the fringe of the existing
urban area;
E) Environmental, energy, economic and social consequences;
F) Retention of agricultural land, as defined, with Class I being the highest
priority for retention and Class VI the lowest priority; and
62
G) Compatibility of the proposed urban uses with nearby agricultural
activities.
Major revision proposals shall be subject to a mutual City and County review and
agreement process involving affected agencies, citizen advisory committees, and the
general public. The review process for the City of Central Point includes the following
steps:
A) CPAC /CAC and joint planning commissions may review the proposal and
recommend appropriate action to the City Council and Board of County
Commissioners;
B) Proposal mailed to the affected agencies; and,
C) Proposal heard and acted upon by City and County at a joint meeting of
the City Council and Board of County Commissioners.
MINOR BOUNDARY LINE ADJUSTMENTS
Minor adjustments to the Urban growth boundary line may be considered subject to
similar procedures used by the City and County in hearing zoning requests. A minor
amendment is defined as focusing on specific individual properties and not having
significant impacts beyond the immediate area of the change.
Application for a minor boundary line amendment can only be made by property owners,
their authorized agents, or by a City or County governing body. Written applications for
amendments may be filed in the office of the Jackson County Department of Planning
and Development on forms prescribed by the County. The standards for processing an
application are as follows:
A) Final action on minor boundary line adjustments shall be based on the
same seven urbanization factors required for major revision requests as
listed in the preceding discussion on Major Revisions.
B) Applications will be reviewed by the Central Point Citizens Planning
Advisory Committee (CPAC), and the appropriate County Citizens
Advisory Committee annually.
C) The applications will be reviewed at a joint City and County Planning
Commission meeting which may be held annually for the express purpose
of considering minor boundary line adjustments.
D) The Planning Commissions are required to forward a recommendation and
findings on each application to their respective governing bodies for final
consideration.
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E) Amendments cannot be made to the urban growth boundary line unless
mutually agreed to by a majority from each governing body. The County
governing body shall be responsible for the preparation of the actual legal
instrument which officially amends the boundary line.
CORRECTION OF ERRORS
A) An error is generally considered to be a cartographic mistake, or a
misprint, omission, or duplication in the text. They are technical in nature
and not the result of new information or changing attitudes or policies.
B) If the City Council and Board of County Commissioners become aware of
an error in the map(s) or text of this mutually- adopted urbanization
program, both bodies may cause an immediate amendment to correct the
error, after mutual agreement is reached.
C) Corrections shall be made by ordinance, following a public hearing
conducted by both governing bodies, but hearings before the planning
commissions shall not be required when an amendment is intended
specifically to correct an error.
This agreement supersedes the prior agreement between the parties on the same subject
matter approved by the County on , 20, and by the City on
, 20
CITY OF CENTRAL POINT
JACKSON COUNTY
BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS
Mayor Rusty McGrath DATE Sue Kupillas, Chair
ATTEST:
City Administrator
APPROVED AS TO FORM:
County Counsel
ATTEST:
Recording Secretary
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DATE
CENTRAL
POINT
L
l
U
i
i-
EXHIBIT" �'• "
N
A
Central Point
Urban Reserves Areas
1 \cpflel\departmem \PLANNING \GIS Map Pmjects\URAs\Indez URAs_RPS Plan Map_8X11 65