HomeMy WebLinkAboutOrdinance 1913ORDINANCE NO. ` � i'b
AN ORDINANCE AMENDING THE CITY OF CENTRAL POINT COMPREHENSIVE
PLAN TO UPDATE THE POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENT
RECITALS:
1. Pursuant to Chapter 197 of the Oregon Revised Statutes and in conformance with
the Statewide Planning goals, The City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan and associated
implementing ordinances were acknowledged by the Oregon Land Conservation and
Development Commission (LCDC) on August 29, 1980 and retain their acknowledged status.
2. Oregon State law requires that Jackson County, as the designated coordinating
body, prepare a population forecast for jurisdictions within its boundary. The revised Population
Element of the Jackson County Comprehensive Plan presents the coordinated population forecast
for Jackson County and its incorporated communities consistent with the requirements of ORS
195.036.
3. The City of Central Point has coordinated the Population and Demographic
Element with Jackson County and the State to assure compliance and compatibility with OAR
660-024-0030 and consistency with State and Regional Population Forecasts for the purpose of
developing urban growth boundaries.
Now, therefore, the Central Point City Council hereby makes the following findings and
conclusions:
SECTION 1. FINDINGS OF FACT
Based upon the evidence and arguments presented, the Central Point City Council makes the
following findings of fact with respect to this application:
1. The Central Point Citizens Advisory Committee initiated amendments to the
Comprehensive Plan Population and Demographic Element and on January 8, 2008 forwarded a
favorable recommendation to approve the Population and Demographic Element to the Central
Point Planning Commission.
2. The Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) received an
advance copy of the Population and Demographic Element 45 days prior to the first evidentiary
hearing which was held on March 4, 2008, in accordance with ORS 197.610.
3. Media notice of the March 4, 2008 Planning Commission public hearing was
published in the Mail Tribune on February 13, 2008 and for the April 24, 2008 City Council
public hearing on April 4, 2008 in accordance with ORS 215.223.
1— Ordinance No. .&&-
4. Following public notice, the Planning Commission opened a public hearing on
March 4, 2008 to consider amendments to the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. After closing
the public hearing, the Planning Commission by motion and majority vote recommended
approval of the Population and Demographic Element of the Comprehensive Plan to the City
Council.
5. On April 24, 2008, the Central Point City Council opened a public hearing for the
first reading of the comprehensive plan amendment. A second reading was held on May 8, 2008
and by motion and majority vote the City Council approved the Population and Demographic
Element of the Comprehensive Plan.
SECTION 2. CONCLUSIONS
1. Proper public and agency notice was given and the procedural requirements of
ORS 197.610-615 have been met.
2. The Population and Demographic Element is in compliance with and implements
Oregon Land Use laws.
SECTION 3. DECISION
Based on the record of the public hearing and the recommendation of the Central Point Planning
Commission, the Central Point City Council adopts the Population and Demographic Element of
the Comprehensive Plan, attached hereto as Exhibit A.
Passed by the Council and signed by me in authentication of its passage this
day of Mme, 2008.
J
Mayor Hank Williams
Approved by me this day of , 2008
Mayor Hank Williams
2 — Ordinance No. I VS
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan
Element
Population & Demographics
April 24, 2008
Ordinance No. k g Page
City of Central Point - Comprehensive Plan
Element 1: Population and Demographics
Table of Contents
1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................1
2. Population Growth Forecast.........................................................................................................1
3. Population Growth Characteristics..............................................................................................3
3.1 Growth Rate.............................................................................................................................3
3.2 Percentage Share of the County's Population.....................................................................3
3.3 Source of Growth.....................................................................................................................3
4. Population Age Characteristics.....................................................................................................3
5. Household Characteristics.............................................................................................................4
5.1 Average Household Size..........................................................................................................5
5.2 Household Type.......................................................................................................................5
5.2.1 Family Households..................................................................................................5
5.2.2 Non -Family Households..........................................................................................6
6. Population Goals & Policies...........................................................................................................6
Ordinance No. Page 4
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2008-2030
ELEMENT 1- POPULATION &. DEMOGRAPHICS
1. Introduction
Central Point was founded in 1889 and by 1900 had a population of 3221. With the exception of the
decade between 1910 and 1920 the City of Central Point has continued to steadily grow (Table 1), and
today is the third largest city in Jackson County. Over the course of the next twenty years, the City's
population is expected to continue to grow, requiring additional land for housing, recreation, employment,
and supporting infrastructure. In an effort to facilitate the City's planning process, it is the purpose of this
Population Element to formally acknowledge a projected rate of population growth to the year 2030 and
to identify the general population and household characteristics associated with the City's population. It
is important to understand that the population projections set forth in this Population Element are
estimates. These estimates are based on the best available information. The information contained in this
Population Element will be used as the basis for maintaining and updating of the City's comprehensive
plan in accordance with ORS 197.712 (urban growth boundaries) and ORS 197.295 —197.296 (housing).
The information presented in this Population Element is either historic data from the U.S. Census or
population forecasts from the Jackson County Comprehensive Plan, 2007 Population Element. Most of
the information is to be used simply to describe the population's general characteristics, while other
information is intended to be used in the determination of the amount of land and types of land uses
needed to accommodate the projected population growth. It is the intent of the City to maintain the
population forecasts based on the 2010 U.S. Census and Portland State University Population Research
Center population estimates.
Throughout this Population Element reference will be made to Acknowledged Inputs. Acknowledged
Inputs represent data inputs to be used by the City in the maintenance and updating of such elements of
the Comprehensive Plan that rely on population data to determine land use needs to the year 2030.
Table 1. Population and Growth: 1900 - 2000 U.S. Census, 2005 PSU Estimate
City of Central Point, Jackson County, and State of Oregon
Year
City of Central Point
Population % Increase
Jackson County
Population % Increase
State of Oregon
Population % Increase
1900
322
X136
13,698
413,536
1910
761
34%fs
25,756
88.030/4 '
672,765
,2.690/6
1920
582
-23.52%
20,405
-20.78%1,
783,389
16.44% ;
1930
821
41 07%j '
32,918
61.320%
953,786
21.75%1, 14
1940
906
10 35%1" w
36,213
10.01% '
1,089,684
14.25%t—i'
1950
1,667
84.00% �1- ;
58,510
61.57W,
1,521,141
39.59%i
1960
2,289
37.3 1%
73,962
26.41% 4
1,768,687
16.27%"
1970
4,004
7492% Z
94,533
27.81% A
2,091,385
18.25% _<
1980
6,357
58.77%�' ,
132,456
40.12%t'
2,633,156
t r
25.90%I 'x
1990
7,509
18120/6
146,389
10.52%t ;'
2,847,000
8.12%V�
2000
12,49366.37%
a r:
181,273
23.83%1 _=
3,421,399
20.18%!
2005*
15,640
25.19%,
194,515
7.31%¢' ' '
3,631,440
Source: U.S. Census and Portland State University Estimate, 2005*
2. Population Growth Forecast
On February 21, 2007 by Ordinance No. 2007-3, the County adopted an update to their Comprehensive
1 U.S. Census Bureau
Element 1 - Population and Demographics (May 8, 2008) Page 1 ul
Ordinance No. \ l\1� Page S
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2008-2030
Plan, 2007 Population Element. This action by the County was undertaken in accordance with State law
which requires that counties maintain and periodically update population forecasts for communities
within their jurisdiction. The County's updated Population Element included individual annual
population forecasts for each city within the County to the year 2040. The population forecasts were
prepared in coordination with each
municipality and in accordance with
State law. The methodology used in
preparing the forecasts is presented in the
County's Population Element, which is
incorporated herein by reference
(Appendix A).
The population forecast for the City of
Central Point is presented in Table 2.
The data in Table 2 is based on the
Jackson County Comprehensive Plan,
2007 Population Element, and illustrates
the projected population growth of the
City to the year 2040. Although
population has been projected to 2040 in
Table 2, for purposes of this Population
Element, the 2030 population forecast is
the basis for the City's land use planning
as presented in the City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2008.
As illustrated in Table 2, by the year
2030 the City's population is forecast to
increase by 10,240. It is expected that by
the year 2022 the City of Central Point's
population will exceed that of the City of
Ashland, making Central Point the
second largest city in the County3.
Acknowledged Input l - Population
Forecast: The population data
presented in Table 2 is acknowledged as
the projected population to be used in
maintaining and updating the City's
Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the
responsibility of the City to periodically
monitor and, if necessary, update the
data presented in Table 2 as it relates to
the City of Central Point through data
provided by Portland State University
and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Table 2. Population Forecast City of Central Point
and Jackson County, 2005-2040
City of Central
Year Jackson County Point % of County
2005
194,515
15,640
8.04%
2006
197,963
15,896
8.03%
2007
202,002
16,358
8.10%
2008
206,124
16,793
8.15%
2009
210,329
17,239
8.20%
2011
217,626
18,050
8.29%
2012
220,672
18,411
8.34%
2013
223,762
18,778
8.39%
2014
226,894
19,152
8.44%
}2U15 `x2_30,168 19,541
, ...
_,.._,_.�'
....`.849% ,
2016
233,257
19,918
8.54%
2017
236,387
20,301
8.59%
2018
239,559
20,691
8.64%
2019
242,773
21,087
8.69%
.246;03121,491
2021
249,049
21,877
8.78%
2022
252,105
22,269
8.83%
2023
255,197
22,667
8.88%
2024
258,328
23,072
8.93%
„ w
2026
264,419
23,875
9.03%
2027
267,374
24,364
9.11%
2028
270,361
24,861
9.20%
2029
273,382
25,367
9.28%
276;437
M
.
2031
279,318
26,382
9.45%
2032
282,230
26,892
9.53%
2033
285,173
27,410
9.61%
2034
288,146
27,935
9.69%
829,006
2036
294,142
9.86%
2037
297,165
29,552
9.94%
2038
300,219
30,105
10.03%
2039
303,304
30,667
10.11%
2 Oregon Revised Statute (ORS) 195.036
3 Population Element, Jackson County Comprehensive Plan, Table 7.
Element 1 - Population and Demographics (May 8, 2008) Page 2
Ordinance No. A0Page
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2008-2030
3. Population Growth Characteristics
In addition to the projected population growth, the following represents an overview of the information
presented in the Jackson County Comprehensive Plan, Population Element.
Figure 1. City of Central Point Historic & Forecast
Population
P 35,000
o 30,000
p 25,000
u
1 20,000
a 15,000
t
i 10,000
o 5,000
n
31,237
Forecast Population -581
- 21,491--
17,696
12,493
4,004 7,509
322 761 582 821 906 ,6 6,357
�O SO �O �O ,y0 �O NO
til 1� ti� ti� ti� ti� ti�
Census Year
3.1. Growth Rate: As illustrated in Figure 1, since 1980, the population of the Jackson County has
grown faster than the state. During this same period, the City of Central Point has exceeded the rate
of growth of the County and has been one of the fastest growing cities within the County, with an
average annual growth rate of 3.67%4. By the year 2030, it is expected that the City will continue to
grow but at a slower average annual rate of approximately 2.6%. During the same period, the County
is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.68%.
3.2. Percentage Share of the County Population: In 1950, Central Point's population
accounted for 2.8% of the County's population. In 2005, the City made up approximately 8%
of the County population. Over the course of the next 35 years, this rate is expected to
continue to increase, with a 2040 population share of approximately 10%.
3.3. Source of Growth: There are two basic sources to population growth: natural increase
(births minus deaths) and net migration (in -migration minus out -migration). Growth
occurring as a result of natural increase is typically a small percentage of a community's
population growth. Most increases in population are a result of net migration. Based on the
2000 U.S. Census, the predominant source of growth for Jackson County was the result of net
migration with over 80% of the population growth resulting from net migration'.
4. Population Age Characteristics
Since the 1990 Census, the age characteristics of the County population have remained relatively
constant. In 2000, the single largest age cohort was the 25 — 44 age cohort, which accounted for
4 Jackson County Population Element, Table 5
' U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
Element 1 - Population and Demographics (May 8, 2008) Page 3
Ordinance No. A11\\% Page I
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2008-2030
approximately 25% of the total population followed very closely by the 45 — 64 age cohort (Baby
Boomers). Figure 2 illustrates the shift in the 25 — 44 age cohort between 1990 and 2000.
Unlike the County, Central Point's 45 — 64 age cohort only experienced a small gain in percentage of total
population. Central Point's Under 5 age cohort did experience an increase in total population when
compared to the County's Under 5 age cohort. Figure 3 illustrates the change in age cohorts between
1990 and 2000.
Table 3. Jackson County Population by Age Cohort, 1990 & 2000
Table 4. City of Central Point Population by Age Cohort, 1990 & 2000
1990
�s
2000
Age Group
Population %Change�kd
Population % Change
Under 5
9,758 6.67%
5;$hs
10,880 6.00%
5-17
26,947 18.41%
b'�
33,380 18.41%
18-24
12,375 8.45%
!
15,730 8.68%
25-44
43,897 29.99%
++
46,260 25.52%
45-64
29,700 20.29%
t .e
��';
46,028 25.39%
65 and over
23,712 16.20%28,991
15.99%
Total
146,389 100.00%181,269
100.00%
Table 4. City of Central Point Population by Age Cohort, 1990 & 2000
5. Household Characteristics
A by-product of population growth is
the formation of households. Trends in
household formation are an important
consideration when discussing
residential land needs necessary to
accommodate forecasted population
growth. Since the early 1900s,
household characteristics have been
gradually changing. For purposes of
land use planning, it is important to
understand the trends associated with
household formation. For purposes of
this Population Element, there are two
characteristics worth noting: Average
household size and household type.
Figure 2. Jackson County Population by Age
Cohort, 1990 & 2000
P 50,000
0 45,000
P 40,000
u 35,000
1 30,000
a 25,000
t 20,000
15,000
10,000
° 5,000
n -
Under5 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 and
Age Cohort
Element 1 - Population and Demographics (May 8, 2008) Page 4
Ordinance No. \ t_�, Page
over
1990
k $"°
2000
Age Group
Population %Change
Population % Change
Under 5
519 6.91%
976 7.81%
5-17
1,623 21.61%
2,596 20.78%
18-24
589 7.84%,
978 7.83%
25-44
2,289 30.48%
3,651 29.22%
45-64
1,429 19.03%
2,521 20.18%
65 and over
1,060 14.12%>
1,771 14.18%
Total
7,509 100.00%
12,493 100.00%
5. Household Characteristics
A by-product of population growth is
the formation of households. Trends in
household formation are an important
consideration when discussing
residential land needs necessary to
accommodate forecasted population
growth. Since the early 1900s,
household characteristics have been
gradually changing. For purposes of
land use planning, it is important to
understand the trends associated with
household formation. For purposes of
this Population Element, there are two
characteristics worth noting: Average
household size and household type.
Figure 2. Jackson County Population by Age
Cohort, 1990 & 2000
P 50,000
0 45,000
P 40,000
u 35,000
1 30,000
a 25,000
t 20,000
15,000
10,000
° 5,000
n -
Under5 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 and
Age Cohort
Element 1 - Population and Demographics (May 8, 2008) Page 4
Ordinance No. \ t_�, Page
over
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2008-2030
5.1. Average Household Size
Since the 1970 Census, and
before, the average household size
has been gradually declining. For
the City of Central Point, the
average household size has
dropped from 3.46 in 1970 to 2.69
in 2000. It is expected that during
the term of the planning period
(2030) that the average household
size will continue to decrease but
at a decreasing rate.
Figure 3. City of Central PointPopulation by Age
Cohort,1990 & 2000
P 4,000
0 3,500
U 3,000
1 2,500
22,000
t 1,500
i 1,000
0 500
n -
Under5 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 and
Age Cohort
over
Acknowledged Input 2 - Average Household Size. For purposes of calculating household formation,
the City will use an average household size of 2.69. This figure will be the basis for determining the
number of households expected to be formed throughout the planning period. It shall be the
responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the average household size
through data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
5.2. Household Type
As previously noted, households are categorized as either family or non -family households. Past
trends in the distribution of households by average size and type is worth noting, particularly as it
relates to the demand for housing, residential land needs, and infrastructure necessary to support
residential growth. Over the course of the past 40 years, average household size has been declining
(Figure 4). In addition to the decline in average household size, the distribution of households by
type has been gradually shifting to non -family households. Whether the average household size or
mix of household types changes, there will be consequences on the demand for housing.
H 3.5
e 3
h
0
1
d 2.5
Z 2
Figure4. Historical Average Household Size for
Jackson County and Central Point 1950 -
2000, Projected U.S. to 2010
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Census Year
Source: U.S. Census
5.2.1. Family Households:
Family households are comprised
of two or more people who are
related by marriage, birth, or
adoption. Most family households
are most commonly represented by
married -couples. Family
households have and continue to
dominate household types.
However, although the formation of
family households continues to
increase, it is doing so at a
decreasing rate. In 1990, family
households in Central Point
accounted for 77% of all
households. By the 2000 Census,
family households represented 75%
of total households.
Element 1 - Population and Demographics(May8, 2008) Page 5
OrdinanceNo. ��� Page
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2008-2030
Based on the 2000 Census, the average number of persons per family household in Central
Point was 3.06. In 1990, the average number of persons per family household was 3.16.
Figure 4 illustrates the history of average family household size in the U.S. and Central Point.
Acknowledged Input 3 - Family Households. For purposes of calculating household
formation, the City will use 75% as the percentage of households that are family households.
This figure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It
shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the
percentage offamily households through data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Acknowledged Input 4 —Average Family Households Size. For purposes of calculating
household formation, the City will use 3.06 as the average household size for family
households. This figure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive
Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary,
update the average family household size through data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
5.2.2. Non -Family Households: Non -family households are comprised of single persons, or two or
more people who are not related. In 1990, non -family households represented 23% of all
households within the City. By 2000 non -family households represented 25% of all
households. As the City's population grows older, the number of non -family households can
be expected to increase.
Based on the 1990 Census, the average number of persons per non -family households was
1.27. By the 2000 Census the average non -family household size increased slightly to 1.28.
Acknowledged Input 5 - Non -Family Households. For purposes of calculating household
formation, the City will use 25% as the percentage of households that are non family
households. This figure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive
Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary,
update the percentage of family households through data provided by the U.S. Census
Bureau.
Acknowledged Input 6— Average Non -Family Households Size For purposes of
calculating non family household formation, the City will use 1.28 as the as the average
household size for non family households. This figure shall be used in maintaining and
updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to
periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the average non family household size through
data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
6. Population Goals & Policies
Goal - To prepare and maintain population projections as the primary data source for developing and
implementing plans and programs for management of the City's growth.
Policy: The population forecasts presented in this element shall serve as the basis for the
development of land use policy and land use decisions.
Element 1 - Population and Demographics (May 8, 2008) Page 6
Ordinance No. � Q \,% Page 0