HomeMy WebLinkAboutResolution 872 - Favorable recommendatin to council to update and adopt Economic element.PLANNING COMMISSION RESOLUTION NO.872
A RESOLUTION FORWARDING A FAVORABLE RECOMMENDATION TO THE
CITY COUNCIL TO UPDATE AND ADOPT THE CITY OF CENTRAL POINT
ECONOMIC ELEMENT (2019-2039)
FILE NO. CPA -19003
Applicant: City of Central Point
WHEREAS, the City's Economic Element of the Comprehensive Plan was last updated in
2013; and
WHEREAS, since 2013 the City's population forecast and employment buildable lands and
economic conditions have changed necessitating an update of the City's Economic Element as
a necessary step in determining the City's employment land needs; and
WHEREAS, the proposed Economic Element has been prepared in accordance with all
applicable Oregon Laws, Oregon Administrative Rules, and Oregon Statewide Land Use
Planning Goals and the City's Comprehensive Plan.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City of Central Point Planning
Commission, by this Resolution No. 872, does hereby forward a favorable recommendation to
the City Council to approve the updated Economic Element as presented in attached Exhibit
«A„
PASSED by the Planning Commission and signed by me in authentication of its passage this
4th day of June, 2019.
Planning Commission Chair
ATTEST:
Z11 A 1,11141,1(&!1
ity Represen a the
Approved by me this 4th day of June, 2019.
Planning Commission Chair
Planning Commission Resolution No. 872 (6/4/2019)
125
STAFF REPORT
Planning Department
Tom Humphrey, AICP,
Community Development Director
CENTRAL
POINT
June 4, 2019
Agenda Item: VIII -A
Consideration of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element for 2019-2039. Applicant:
City of Central Point. File No. CPA -19003.
Staff Source
Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner
Background
On May 7, 2019 the Planning Commission discussed a working draft of the Economic Element and
directed staff to schedule it for a public hearing in June. The Citizen's Advisory Committee (CAC) also
considered the Economic Element at the May 14, 2019 meeting and forwarded a favorable
recommendation to the Planning Commission. Since that time, staff has revised the Economic Element
draft including updating and formatting tables, and making minor language revisions in sections 6 and 7
that address Land Demand and Goals and Policies.
Employment BLI Overview:
The Economic Element provides a forecast of employment growth opportunities over a 20 -year planning
period (2019-2039) and identifies the associated employment land needs in accordance with Statewide
Planning Goal 9 (Attachment "A"). The last update to the Economic Element occurred in 2013 and
resulted in expansion of the City's Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to add 49 acres of industrial land in
the Tolo Area. The current update has been initiated in response to interest in expanding the UGB for
commercial land and accounts for changes to the City's forecast population, availability of buildable
lands, and economic trends for the nation, state, region and city.
The Economic Element concludes that the City is poised to experience growth across all employment
categories over the next 20 -years and is especially well suited to accommodate growth in specialty foods,
trucking and transportation, healthcare and retail services. At this time, the City has a surplus of industrial
acreage but has a need for additional land to accommodate growth in commercial and institutional land
use categories as follows:
45
Gross Employment
New Haiiclabfe Acres
Acres Needed, 2019-
Short -Term Gross Acres
Sector
Needed by 2039
2039
Needed, 2019-2024
Industrial
-
-
CommerciaYService
21
27
7
InstitutionaUGovernment
18
23
6
Other/Uncovered Employment
34
43
11
Total Em
jiloyment
74
93
23
45
The goals and policies reflect the City's need to maintain a proactive and collaborative approach to
economic development, providing an adequate and suitable land supply, and encouraging small
businesses and business innovation. Additionally the Economic Element addresses an increased emphasis
on providing land supply and opportunity for pedestrian oriented neighborhood commercial centers
consistent with policies in the Regional Plan and Land Use Elements.
At the June 4, 2019 Planning Commission meeting staff and the Consultant will present the Economic
Element including revisions (Attachment `B").
Issues
There are no issues. The Employment BLI is an inventory of buildable lands and is not a policy
document. The data in the BLI supports analysis in the Economic Element, which sets forth the City's
goals and policies relative to the opportunities and need for employment land in the City's urban area
over the next 20 -years.
Attachments:
Attachment "X'– Economic Element (Public Hearing Draft dated June 2019)
Attachment `B" – Economic Element (Sections 6 and 7 Mark-ups)
Attachment "C" – Resolution No. 872
Action
Consideration of Resolution No. 872 forwarding a favorable recommendation to the City Council to
approve the Employment Buildable Lands Inventory—Land Use Element and 1) approve, 2) approve
with modifications, 3) deny, or 4) direct staff to prepare a revisions for consideration at the July 2, 2019
Planning Commission meeting.
Recommendation
Approve Resolution No. 872.
46
ECONOMIC ELEMENT
2019-2039
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan
Prepared by
Huycke O'Connor Jarvis, LLP
823 Alder Creek Drive
Medford, OR 97504
June 2019
PUBLIC HEARING DRAFT
47
ATTACHMENT "A"
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Preface
Legal Requirements: Oregon law requires local municipalities to adopt an Economic Element as
a part of their Comprehensive Plans. OAR 660-009-0015. These Economic Elements help to
implement Oregon Statewide Planning Goal #9, which is "to provide adequate opportunities
throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare, and
prosperity of Oregon's citizens." That is, Goal #9 encourages local governments, like Central
Point, to achieve their economic development planning goals so as to benefit the state's
residents.
Framework: Oregon Administrative Rules, Chapter 660, Division 9 calls for a four -step
approach to economic development planning:
1. Review national, state, regional, county, and local economic trends
2. Identify the types and number of sites needed to accommodate growth
3. Inventory the industrial lands, employment lands, and vacant lands
4. Assess the community's potential for economic development
This Economic Element follows these steps: Section 1 reviews Central Point's economic history,
Section 2 analyzes national economic trends, Section 3 reviews economic data concerning the
State of Oregon, Section 4 reviews both Southern Oregon and Central Point's economy, Section
5 contains a Population and Employment Forecast, Section 6 analyzes land demand for Central
Point in both the short-term (5 years) and long-term (20 years), and Section 7 outlines the City's
economic goals and policies that will guide the City of Central Point through the twenty-year
planning period (2019-2039).
This document will help guide the City of Central Point's future growth and development,
correct problems, maximize potentials, and act as a guide for decision-making. For a more
complete analysis of Central Point's planning needs, see the Comprehensive Plan (updated 19133)
and the corresponding Population, Housing, and Land Use Elements, as well as the Central Point
Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (2019-2039).1
This document should be read along with the Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (2019)
and any subsequent inventory updates.
1 See generally City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan (updated 1983).
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48
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Table of Contents
Preface... .......................................................................................................................................... 2
Tableof Contents............................................................................................................................ 3
Listof Figures: ................................................................................................................................ 5
Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 6
Summary........................................................................................................................................-
7
Section 1: Central Point's Economic History ............................................................................
8
Section 2: National Economic Trends....................................................................................... 9
Measuring the National Economy.............................................................................................. 9
i. Gross Domestic Product..........,.................................................................................... 9
ii. Employment................................................................................................................12
iii. Inflation.......................................................................................................................
14
National Economic Crosscurrents: ...........................................................................................
16
i. Trade Wars..................................................................................................................
16
ii. Income Inequality.......................................................................................................
17
iii. Cost of Health Care.....................................................................................................
17
iv. Cost of Education........................................................................................................
18
Section 3: State Economic Trends...........................................................................................
19
NeighboringStates....................................................................................................................
19
Measuring the State Economy..................................................................................................
20
i. Gross Domestic Product.............................................................................................
20
ii. Employment........................................................................................................... .....
21
iii. Industry Strengths.......................................................................................................
23
State Economic Crosscurrents: ................................. . ..............................................................
25
i. The National Economy...............................................................................................
25
ii. Trade Wars..................................................................................................................
25
iii. Housing Affordability.................................................................................................
26
iv. Wildfires and Smoke...................................................................................................
26
Section 4: Economic Trends in Southern Oregon....................................................................
27
i. Gross Domestic Product.............................................................................................
27
ii. Employment................................................................................................................29
iii. Housing.......... ..... ---- ......... — .................................................................................
30
Section 5: The City of Central Point's Trends..............................................................................
31
Measuringthe City's Trends.....................................................................................................
31
i. Commuting Patterns....................................................................................................
31
ii.Local Population Forecast...........................................................................................
32
iii. Regional Employment Forecast..................................................................................
35
iv. Regional Competitiveness..........................................................................................
40
V. Economic Development Context................................................................................
42
vi. Competitive Position Summary ..................................................................................
44
vii. Assessment of Central Point's Economic Development Potential .............................
44
viii. Central Point's Projected Job Growth.........................................................................
46
Section6: Land Demand..........................................................................................................
48
Economic Growth Rate Forecast..............................................................................................
48
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing...................................................................................
48
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49
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
ii. Trucking and Warehousing..............................•......................................................... 48
iii. Retail...........................................................................................................................49
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry...................................................................... 49
i. Site Requirements Analysis........................................................................................ 50
ii. Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements.............................................................
51
Long -Term Land Demand Estimate......................................................................................... 52
iii. Estimate of Needed Employment Lands..................................................................... 53
Short -Term Land Demand Estimate......................................................................................... 54
Inventoryof Employment Lands.............................................................................................. 54
i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency................................................................... 55
ii. Vacant Lands.............................................................................................................. 55
iii. Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 56
Section7: Goals and Policies................................................................................................... 58
Policy1: Participation........................................................................................................... 59
Policy2: Refine Policies....................................................................................................... 59
Policy 3: Monitor Long -Term Consequences....................................................................... 59
Policy4: Small Businesses................................................................................................... 60
Policy 5: Business Innovation............................................................................................... 60
Policy6: Tolo Area............................................................................................................... 60
Policy 7: Monitor Regulations.............................................................................................. 60
Policy 8: Adequate Short -Term Supply................................................................................ 60
Policy 9: Prepare for Long -Term Needs .............................. ............................. _................. 60
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50
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP...........................................................................
11
Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950....................................................................
13
Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006...................................................................
13
Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers .......................................
15
Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers .......................................
15
Figure 6: U.S. Health -Care Spending as a Share of GDP.............................................................
17
Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017................................................................................................
20
Figure 8: Short -Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon................................................................
21
Figure 9: Oregon's Unemployment Rate......................................................................................
22
Figure 10: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 2016 .................
23
Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County's GDP.............................................................................
28
Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County's GDP..........................................................................
28
Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate.........................................................................
29
Figure 14: Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns...............................................................
31
Figure 15: Jackson County—Total Population by Five-year Intervals (1975-2017) ...................
33
Figure 16: Population Growth Projections for City of Central Point and Jackson County ..........
34
Figure 17: Central Point Population Pyramid...............................................................................
34
Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, 2017-2027.... ..............................
36
Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2017-2027 ..........................................
38
Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2027................................................................
39
Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast.....................................................................................
40
Figure 22: Jackson County Shift -Share Analysis 2010 -2017 .......................................................
40
Figure 23: Central Point's Qualitative Trends..............................................................................
42
Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential......................................................
45
Figure 25: Central Point's population growth rate.......................................................................
47
Figure 26: Central Point's 20 -year job forecast by industry .........................................................
47
Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry .......................................................
50
Figure 28: General Development Pattern Site Requirements.......................................................
51
Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039 ............................
53
Figure 30: Gross Acres Needed....................................................................................................
54
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
CENTRAL
POINT
Introduction
Purpose: The purpose of this Economic Element is to determine the City of Central Point's
economic goals, policies, and land use needs. It identifies economic development opportunities
and corresponding employment land needs for the next 20 years (2019-2039). It also provides a
realistic analysis of current economic trends and potential disruptions. Through this, Central
Point will be better able to reduce costs and delays, anticipate obstacles, and keep planning
activities aligned with the City's policies.
Past Elements: The City of Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan
in 1973.2 In 1980, the Rogue Valley Council of Governments prepared the City of Central
Point's first Economic Element.3 That document was subsequently succeeded in 2013 by a
version prepared by CSA Associates.4 This Economic Element of 2018 supersedes the previous
versions and becomes part of Central Point's Comprehensive Plan. It establishes the framework
for future economic growth and development and gives a long-range evaluation of the City's
changing characteristics and needs.
Geographic Scope: This Economic Element is limited in scope to developments within the
Central Point city limits and the Urban Growth Boundary. Central Point is located near the
geographic center of Jackson County in southwestern Oregon, approximately midway between
Portland and San Francisco.5 The City has the advantage of being located directly on Interstate 5
(1-5), Highway 99 (U.S. Route 99), the Southern Pacific Railway, and adjacent to the Rogue
Valley International Airport. Immediately to the south of Central Point is the City of Medford,
which is the seat of Jackson County and the largest city in Southern Oregon. This provides
Central Point residents with easy access to major shopping centers, employment, and
governmental activities.
'` Id. at Preface 1.
3 City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 at 5 (2013).
4 See id.
S City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan, Part IV, Plan Summary 3 (updated 1983).
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Summary
This Economic Element includes an economic history of Central Point, it analyzes current
national, state, and regional economic trends, includes an employment forecast, and an inventory
of lands used for employment. The final section outlines the City's economic goals and policies
that will guide the City through the twenty-year planning period (2019-2039).
The national economy is doing well, with GDP at a very healthy rate, unemployment down, and
inflation moderate. However, leading economist are warning that the U.S. economy will slow
and may even slide into a recession around the year 2020. Further, the economic health of the
country is increasingly threatened by the possibility of trade wars, growing income inequality,
and the costs of health care and education. As a result, the City of Central Point must be prepared
for economic fluctuations in both the short- and long-term, which could seriously impact its land
use planning forecasts.
The state economy is "hitting the sweet spot" and doing well compared to other states. GDP is
rising, employment has recovered from the Great Recession, and it has growing industries.
However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the state economy is at risk
from the U.S. economy's volatility, retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, a prolonged
affordable housing crisis, as well as the impact of forest fires and smoke. While the economy
may remain strong, the City should brace itself for a slowdown like the 1990s recession.
The Southern Oregon region is doing even better than the state economy. Although the region
was hit hard by the Great Recession, and recovery has been difficult, the GDP is growing faster
than the national rate and USA Today has ranked both Jackson and Josephine counties as the 28th
and 18th best local economies in the nation respectively. Nevertheless, the area still has high
unemployment rates and is suffering from a lack of affordable housing for middle class workers.
Central Point has a high population growth rate and is expected to grow to approximately 26,000
people by 2039. This means that Central Point will surpass the City of Ashland's population and
capture almost 7 percent of the new jobs in the region over the next 20 years. The gains will be
concentrated in service, health care, construction, professional, and the business industries. Its
target industries include specialty foods, trucking and warehousing, and retail. According to the
population and job capture rate, Central Point will need approximately 13 acres of new
employment lands in the next 5 years and anywhere from 65 to 73 new acres by 2039.
Ultimately, future economic conditions cannot be accurately predicted. However, strategically
planning the City of Central Point's land base for the long-term has the potential to benefit
economic development in the City and the surrounding area. This includes preparing to
accommodate future needs and integrating the City's land use planning efforts within a broader
economic development strategy.
Central Point's last Economic Element was created in 2013. Because it relied on data from the
2010 census, and because there will be little new data before the 2020 census, much of this
Economic Element is similar or identical to that of the last element. Furthermore, many of the
conclusions in that element remain valid and are adopted.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 1: Central Point's Economic History.
Central Point's economic history has centered on trade, resource-based industries such as forest
products and agriculture, and minor retail for its residential areas.
Incorporated by the State Legislature in 1889, Central Point was so named because of its location
at the center of the inhabited parts of the Rogue Valley.6 Before then, Jacksonville had served as
the region's economic center. However, when the railroad was built, Jacksonville was bypassed,
and the tracks were built through what is now Central Point.
Central Point's railroad station was the closest point to reach Crater Lake from the South. All the
county roads leading from Ashland, Jacksonville, and Medford passed through Central Point,
making it a prime area for shipping and trading.7
Central Point is located near some of Jackson County's most fertile soils and was well located to
serve the surrounding farmers. Indeed, this remained the foundation of the City's economy well
into the 1960s. Central Point's location allowed it to act as a trading location for the farming
community, a location for schools, and as a well-placed area for shops and services. The City
housed the Grange Co-op's grain elevator and various farm repair shops and equipment retail.
Between the 1960s and 1970s, the City of Central Point rapidly expanded its residential
development. Because there was no corresponding development of commercial and industrial
industries, Central Point became a residential community largely inhabited by people who
commuted to nearby cities for work. During this period the forest products industry grew, and
residents of Central Point were able to find employment at the mills in Medford and White City.
In 1980, the City of Central Point adopted its first Economic Element that has herewith been
replaced by this Economic Element. The U.S. economy has undergone several economic cycles
since then. The 1980 Economic Element sought to diversify the City's economy and reduce the
degree of imbalance between employment and housing within the City. Central Point has been
successful to some extent over the last thirty years in its efforts to diversify its economy. The
City has experienced retail and industrial growth in and around Exit 33 on Interstate 5.
Providence Hospital recently added a medical facility on Highway 99 south of Pine Street. A
small specialty foods cluster has developed along Highway 99 north of Pine Street that includes
Rogue Creamery, Lillie Belle Farms chocolates and a wine tasting room. The Rogue Valley
Council of Governments has its main office building near downtown Central Point. A new
Costco Wholesale store opened off of Table Rock Road in 2017. Further, newer retail exists near
freeway interchanges and along Pine Street and Highway 99. These employers and others have
served (and an overarching objective of this Economic Element is) to continue to add more
balance and diversity to the City's employment base.
6 Democratic Times, Jacksonville, page 1 (July 18, 1889).
Id.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 2: National Economic Trends
Purpose It is important to review current trends in the U.S. economy. The national
economy provides the necessary context for the adoption of updated economic development
policies and strategies in the City's Comprehensive Plan. By engaging with governmental
projections and economic forecasts, the City will be better able to position itself for long-term
success. This review of national trends will help inform the Economic element by providing a
foundation to describe the City's economic advantages and disadvantages.
National Economic Trends The U.S. economy is booming. However, "potential danger lurks
around the corner."8 Over the last decade, the national economy has largely recovered from the
Great Recession: unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate,
people appear confident in the economy, and the International Monetary Fund has projected a
short-term growth of just under 3 percent.9
However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis warns that there are signs of a potential
economic slowdown around 2020. Economic crosscurrents threaten economic stability, including
the potential for global trade wars, increasing costs of health care, and the increasing burdens of
higher education on younger generations. This indicates the likelihood of strong short-term
growth for the United States but relative weakness in the medium and long term.10 While there
will likely be a downturn in the economy, it will probably be less severe than the Great
Recession.I I Because there is no obvious asset or investment bubble today (unlike the subprime
mortgages of 2008), if a recession occurs it will probably be similar to the recession of 1990.12
Measuring the National Economy
There are many ways to analyze the national economy, such as the GDP, unemployment rate,
and inflation rates. Each of these helps to describe how well the economy is doing and may
indicate how healthy the economy will be in the future.
i. Gross Domestic Product
What is Gross Domestic Product? Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") is a measurement of how
many goods and services the United States produces. 13 Because it measures production, it is one
of the primary indicators used by economists to determine the health of the economy. 14 The ideal
8 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018).
9 Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy looks 'good' for the 'next couple of years at least',
CNBC (Oct. 9, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/10/091m ed-el-erian-us-=nom -headed-for-solid-
growth-for-couple-years.html.
1 ° Id. at 6.
Josh Lehner, Hammer Don't Hurt 'Em, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26, 2018), available at:
oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/10/26/hammer-dont-hurt-em/.
12 id.
13 Harriet Tony, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct. 26,
2018), available at: w_ww_wsi.comlarticles/u-s-ecaagrmy-grew-at-3-5-rate-in-third-guarter-1540557378,
14 Leslie Kramer, What is GDP and why is it so important to economists and Investors? Investopedia (Feb. 5, 2018),
available at: www.investopedia.con/ask/answcrs/what-is-gdp-why-its-important-to-economists investors/.
Page 9
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
GDP growth rate is between 2-3 percent. 15 If GDP grows too slowly it could indicate some
economic unhealthiness; if it grows too fast it could mean that there is an asset bubble and that
the economy is ovcnceating.
Past Trends Since Central Point published its first economic element in 1980, the national
GDP has had its ups and downs. The Recession of the early 1980s was followed by an economic
boom that lasted until 1990. The short Recession of 1990 was followed by a decade of economic
prosperity. Although there was a modest downturn in 2000-2001, that was replaced with
continuing economic expansion through 2006. Then came the Great Recession, the worst period
since World War II from a GDP perspective. In five out of six quarters from the end of 2007 to
the beginning of 2009 the GDP actually went negative. After a decade of recovery, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics anticipates that the economy will fully recover by 2020.16
Recent Growth Currently, the U.S. GDP is increasing at a good rate. See Figure 1.
Although there has not been explosive growth, 17 the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has
characterized the US economy as "entering into its boom phase of the business cycle." 18
The last two quarters mark the strongest back-to-back quarters of U.S. economic growth since
2014. 19 According to the Department of Commerce, the national GDP grew at a rate of 3.5
percent in the third quarter of 2018.20 While this was stronger than expected, this was down from
4.2 percent expansion in the previous quarter. 21 Economists have explained that this was due to
strong consumer spending,22 a drop in unemployment '23 and the results of the recent tax cuts,
including business investment, the restocking of inventories, 24 and excessive borrowing by the
Federal Government. 25
15 Kimberly Amadeo, What is the Ideal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance
(Oct. 5, 2018), available at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-2dp-growth-rate-3306017.
16 Id.
17 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone, CNN Business (May 1, 2018) available at:
moga.enn.com/2018/05/01/news/emnomy/uconom - eat-recession-recove /index.html.
18 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018).
19 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak, CFO Magazine (October 26, 2018), available at:
ww2.cfo.com/the-econoML/2018/10/u-s-gdp-continues-hot-streak/.
20 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018
(advance estimate) (Oct. 26, 2018).
21 Fred Imbert, The US economy grew at a 3.5% pace in the third quarter, faster than expected, CNBC (Oct. 26,
2018), available at: www enbe.com/2018/10/26/fust-read-on-us-a3-2018-gross-domestic-product.html.
22 Id.
23 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone.
24 Sarah Foster, What Economists Are Saying Ahead of Third -Quarter U.S. GDP Data, Bloomberg (Oct. 25, 2018),
available at: www bloomberg.corntnews/articles/2018-10-26/what-economists-are-saying-ahead-of-third-quarter-u-
s-gdp-data.
25 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone.
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56
City of Central Point
Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP
FqM y; 0 P—m chip d Cm 0--l- P-1
7A
7m5 21W 241! 2"
Shrd.d--.4..* U S —
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
2010 7011 2012 2013
Some: U.S. Room of 6cofarft AMr*
2018 Zola 7016 2017 7018
mr4wd'W NacF
Short -Term Projections The U.S. GDP is currently on a "hot streaki26 and will probably
maintain 2.5-3 percent growth through 2019. However, it is difficult to predict future growth
beyond that. In fact, forecasts by national economists for short-term growth are conflicted. While
some predict multiple years of 3 percent growth,27 the International Monetary Fund has projected
a short-term growth of under 3 percent for 2018 and 2.5 percent for 2019.28 The Federal Reserve
has a similar opinion, projecting that the GDP rate will decrease to 2.5% in 2019, 2% in 2020,
and 1.8% in 2021.29 This, coupled with the threat of a major trade war with China, have led to
fears of an economic slowdown sometime around 2020. In fact, Moody's Analytics chief
economist Mark Zandi has said, `By mid -2020, we will be most vulnerable to the next
recession." 30
Long -Term Projections It is even more difficult to project how the national GDP will fare
over the next two decades. Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has said,
"trying to forecast a period of prolonged weakness, or even a possible recession two years in
advance is a fool's errand .... There's just too much time, too many potential variables ... to
alter the course that far in the future."31
Here, there are too many variables that can change. However, some things will occur with near -
certainty. First, over the next two decades the economy will evolve. Some industries will
diminish, some will expand, while still others will be created. Second, there will be some good
years and some not -so good years. That is, things will not always be as good as they are now.
Third, on average, there will probably be more years of healthy GDP growth than not.
26 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak.
27 Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy looks 'good"for the 'next couple of years at least.'
2s Id.
29 Harriet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct. 26,
2018), available at: www.ws'.conVarticleslu-s-econom-s-economy�w-at-3-5-rate-in-third-quarter-1540557378.
30 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone.
31 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don't Hurt 'Em.
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57
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Conclusion Central Point must accept the reality of long-term GDP fluctuations when
engaging in planning and decision-making. City leaders should not adopt the view that because
things are good now that they will always be good. Instead, Central Point should have long-term
plans that accept the fundamentals of the free market.
ii. Employment
What is Unemployment? Unemployment measures how many people in the country do not
have jobs. Unemployment occurs when a person who is actively searching for a job is unable to
find work Like Like GDP, it is one of the main indicators of an economy's health. Of particular
importance to economists is the "unemployment rate," which is calculated br taking the number
of unemployed people and dividing by the number of people employed. 3 Unlike GDP, the
unemployment rate usually rises or falls after changing economic conditions, rather than
anticipating an economic event. 14 Even a healthy economy will have a certain number of people
unemployed: some will be between jobs and others will have been displaced by an evolving
economy.
Past Trends The United States has never had zero percent unemployment. The lowest rate ever
recorded was 2.5 percent in mid -1953. It occurred because "the economy overheated during the
Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the recession of 1953."35 Since Central Point
published its first Economic Element, the U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated in line with the
economic booms and busts. The highest rates were 10.8 percent in 1982 and 10 percent at the
height of the Great Recession in December 2009. In turn, the lowest rates were 3.8 percent in
April 2000, and 4.4 percent in 2006 and 2007.
Recent Trends Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7 percent, the lowest
in nearly half a century. 36 Figure 2 depicts the rapid increase in unemployment during the Great
Recession and the slow recovery over the last decade. Unemployment has been declining and has
finally fallen below pre -Recession levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics assumes that the
economy will fully recover from the Great Recession by 2020 and that the labor force will return
to a. fall unemployment rate of 4 to 5 percent. 37
32 What is Unemployment, Investopedia, available at:
www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.aV#ixzz5ViPvdupO.
331d.
34 What is Unemployment Rate, Investopedia, available at: www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploMentrate.M.
35 Kimberly Amadeo, Natural Rate of Unemployment, [is Components, and Recent Treads: Why Zero
Unemployment Isn't as Good as It Sounds, The Balance (Sept. 26, 2018).
36 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Kot Streak.
37 Kimberly Amadeo, What is the Ideal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance
(Oct. 5, 2018), available at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-gdp-growth-rate-3306017.
Page 12
58
City of Central Point
Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950
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Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
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Figure 3 depicts the strong relationship between unemployment and educational attainment.
Those without a high school diploma have experienced unemployment rates that are almost
double that of individuals with a college education. However, the rate of unemployment has been
declining at a much faster pace over the last several years for those without a high school
diploma than those with a college education. Overall, unemployment levels are good when
measured on a national scale.
Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006
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Short -Term Projections The current unemployment rate is unsustainable. 38 Both Moody's
Analytics and Goldman Sachs's chief economists have forecasted that unemployment will
continue to decline to 3 percent by early 2020.39 However, there are conflicting forecasts after
that. Either the anticipated 2020 slowdown could prevent the economy from overheating and
38 Rebecca Rainey, Happy Jobs Day! Politico (Nov. 2, 2018), available at: www.nolitico.conn/newsletters/mornine-
shift12018111102/havRv-iobs-day-3991.13.
39 Brian Cheung, Goldman Sachs warns the economy may be growing too quickly, Yahoo Finance (Nov. 5, 2018),
available at: sports.yahoo,com/goldm.an-says-fed-needs-avoid-dangerous-overheating-154158689.httnl. Also see
Martin Crutsinger, Fed likely to keep rates on hold and sketch a bright outlook, AP (Nov. 5, 2018), available at:
www.wacatrib.com/news/au nation/fed-likely-to-keep-rates-on-hold-and-sketch-a/article eb93696-bf36-5557-
977d-51354fl832a9.h
Page 13
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
temporarily stabilize the unemployment rate or the economy will slow too much, potentially
destabilizing the employment rate, causing it to increase. 40 The Federal Reserve estimates that
the normal unemployment rate (absent shocks to the economy) will rise back up to between 4-5
percent over the next five to six years. 41 While it is unclear whether unemployment will hold
steady for a while longer or if it will begin rising again as soon as 2020, it is highly probable that
unemployment will be going back up.
Long -Term Projections Like forecasting GDP rates decades in advance, it is also difficult
to project unemployment rates for the next two decades. However, it should be noted that the
average unemployment rate for the U.S. between 1948 and 2018 was 5.77 percent, with a high of
10.8 percent and a record low of 2.5 percent. As a result, the average unemployment rate will
probably stay in these bounds, close to the average. 42
Conclusion The unemployment rate is currently very low and will be going back up. A
possible slowdown or recession around 2020 could either stabilize the rate or cause it to rise
sharply. Ultimately, unemployment will probably stay around 3 percent for the next couple years
and average 5 percent over the next two decades.
iii. Inflation
YVhat is inflation? Inflation is the measure of how much the price of goods and services
increases over time. 43 It means that things cost more and more instead of staying the same price.
For example, if a gallon of milk has an inflation rate of 2 percent per year, then the price of milk
will be 2 percent higher next year. Importantly, inflation is not primarily caused by the Federal
Government printing too much money. Instead, inflation usually rises because buyers want
products so much that they are willing to pay higher prices.
If workers' wages do not keep pace with inflation, people have less buying power. The opposite
of inflation is deflation, which is when things cost less than they did before. It is important to
measure inflation because it shows if on average people are prospering or suffering under the
current economy.
Measuring Inflation There are different ways to measure inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics uses the Consumer Price Index. 44 In the United States, the Federal Reserve aims
for a target annual inflation rate of 2 percent. 45
Past trends Figure 4 shows how inflation has occurred over the last seven decades. When
Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the United States was undergoing a
40 Id.
41 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, What is the lowest level of unemployment that the U.S.
economy can sustain? FAQs (Sept. 26, 2018), available at: www.federaireserve. og v/fags/economy 14424.htm.
4' Trading Economics, United States Unemployment Rate, (Oct. 2018), available at: tradingeconomics.com/united-
states/unemployment-rate.
43 Kimberly Amadeo, Why Inflation Is as "Violent as a Mugger" The Balance (Oct. 30, 2018), available at
www.thebalance.coin/what-is-inflation-how-it-s-measured-and-mans ed -3306170.
44 Id.
4s Id
Page 14
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City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
period of massive inflation. Inflation was over 7 percent in the 1970s and almost 6 percent in the
1980s. Since then, inflation has dropped to the 3 percent range in the 1990s and under 2 percent
in the pre -Great Recession years. In 2009, inflation averaged -0.34 percent. However, inflation
has been steadily climbing back up and, in the twelve months leading up to September 2018, the
Consumer Price Index increased 2.3 percent.
Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
!
0
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Short -Term Projections At the moment, inflation is relatively benign. 46 The price of food
goods is remaining steady while the cost of vehicles has fallen sharply.47 Increases in the
Consumer Price Index have been tied to increasing rental prices and the cost of home
ownership.48 However, the Federal Reserve projects greater than 2 percent inflation over the next
couple of years. See Figure 5, which shows the recent history of the Consumer Price Index.
Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
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46 Jeffry Bartash, Inflation rises slowly in September in latest sign of easing price pressures, CPI shows, Market
Watch (Oct. 11, 2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/stgrAousiing; costs -nudge -inflation -hi fP er-in-
sgptember-cpi-shows-2018-10-11.
47 Id. -
48 Id.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Long -Term Projections Although the current inflation rate is 2.28 percent, this is well
below the 3.76 average since the end of )AMI. 49 As a result, in the long term, inflation will
probably be moving back up to better approach the average rate.
Conclusion In the long run, inflation will probably be increasing to better align with the
averages of the last century. Unless wages also increase to meet inflation, it will become harder
for individuals to purchase things.
National Economic Crosscurrents:
Primary Risks to the U.S. Economy The national economy appears healthy: GDP has a good
growth forecast, unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate,
and people appear confident in the economy. In addition to analyzing the traditional
measurements of economic success, it is also important to consider strategic threats to the
economy that have not yet sufficiently impacted the economic data.
There are several things that put the economy at risk in both the short and long-term: trade wars,
increasing income inequality, and the costs of health care and education.
L Trade Wars
First among the dangers to the national economy is the simmering trade war. Although there has
been little impact so far, the possibility of escalation could severely harm the national economy.
Already, the US soy industry could be on the verge of collapse, with sales down 94 percent to
China because of the retaliatory tariffs .50 Because soybeans are usually routed through the
Pacific Northwest on their way to Asia, this could harm Oregon's economy. 51
Many other industries are also threatened, with duties on steel and aluminum costing U.S.
companies about half a billion dollars in September 2018 alone. 52 An escalation in the trade wars
(either by including more countries or a wider range of floods) would harm U.S. industries,
transportation companies, and consumers across the board. 5 It would also lead to an increase in
prices and inflation, requiring the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.
49 Jill Mislinski, A Long -Term Look at Inflation, Advisor Perspectives (Oct. 2018), available at:
www.advisoMerspectives.com/dshort/updates/201$12/a-long-term-look-at inflation.
50 Binyamin Appelbaum, Their Soybeans Piling Up, Farmers Hope Trade War Ends Before Beans Rot, New York
Times (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www Wimes com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html
51 Isis Almeida, Trump's Tariff War Scrambles Agricultural Trade Routes, Bloomberg Business (Nov. 1, 2018),
available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/20 18-11-0 1/truin-s-tariff-war-scrambles-u-s-trade-routes-as-s -
iles-u
5' Stephanie Dhue and Yian Mui, American businesses paid 50% more in tariffs in September due to Trump's trade
war, industry coalition says, CNBC (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/tariff-payments-up-
50nercent-in-september-on-trump-trade-war-industry-group.html.
53 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 2018).
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
ii. Income Inequality
Income inequality is a system -level issue for the United States economy. 54 Over the last 20
years, the top 10 percent of income earners have received a nearly 200 percent increase in their
overall median net worth, while the bottom 40 percent of earners have seen an actual decline in
their net worth .55 This economic upheaval will have a major impact on government spending; an
aging population that has less of an ability to support itself will require more help from
entitlement and social programs. In the long term, it has the potential to negatively impact
institutional investors' portfolios; increase financial and social system -level instability; damage
output and slow economic growth; increase the Federal Deficit; and contribute to the tendencies
toward protectionism and tariffs.56
iii. Cost of Health Care
The cost of health care for the American consumer is increasing. Since the City of Central Point
first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the U.S. has gone from spending 7.2 percent of
its GDP on health care to almost 18 percent today. 57 See Figure 6. While total inflation is
averaging around 2.3 percent, healthcare has increased 3.7 percent. What is more, the price of
health care is rising faster than normal prices and companies are having to spend more on health
insurance premiums. 58 As a result, employees are taking less money home with them.
Figure 6: U.S. Health -Care Spending as a Share of GDP
18%
16
14
12
10
a
1963 1980 2000 2016
54 Bob Eccles, Investors Can And Should Address The Fundamental Causes Of Income Inequality, Forbes (Oct. 30,
2018) available at: www.forbes.com/sites/bobeccles/2018/10/30/investors-can-and-should-address-the-fundamental-
causes-of-income-inequality/#46f07c851 ed5.
" Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause U.S. debt downgrade, Moody's says, MarketWatch (Oct. 27,
2018), available at:yvww.m_ark�a _.com/sto0/econgnuc-inequality-could-cause-us-debt-downgrade-moodys-
says-2018-10-12.
" Steve Lydenberg, et al., New Report: Why and How Investors Can Respond to Income Inequality, The Investment
Integration Project (2018) available at: www.tiiRroject.com/wp-content/gploads/2018/lOnny-and-How-Investors-
Can-Respond-to-Income-Inequality_pdf (PDF warning).
57 Noah Smith, Efforts to slow the rise in the country's insanely expensive system have gone nowhere, Bloomberg
(Oct. 29, 2018).
58 Id.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
iv. Cost of Education
The burden of student debt is likely to keep growin�, which will dramatically inhibit the ability
of younger generations to accumulate wealth.5 Outstanding student loans are already
approaching $1.2 trillion. 60 While inflation is amend 2.3 percent, and health care costs are rising
at 3.7 percent, education expenses are rising at an incredible rate of 5.2 percent. 61 In fact, if
education inflation continues at this rate, the cost of tuition and fees for a four-year public
university by 2028 will be between $65,590 for in-state public schools and $224,124 for private
colleges. 62
Many parents are burdened with saving large amounts of money to pay for their children's
college education. Further, many young adults are already burdened with enormous student loan
debts. Because parents and/or college graduates will need to spend enormous sums on tuition,
and wages are not rising to meet this increase, people will either be prevented from getting a
higher education or will be stuck paying off loans for a much longer period. In either case, that is
bad news for the economy.
59 Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause U.S. debt downgrade, Moody's says, MarketWatch (Oct. 27,
2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-inequality-could-cause-us-debt-downgrade-maodys-
sus -2018-10-12.
60 Mike Patton, The Cost of College: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow, Forbes (Nov. 19, 2018), available at:
w_ww.forbes con lsites/mikepatton/20I5/11/19/the-cost-of-colieMesv terday-today-and-tomorrow/#55Ce#f706060.
61 id.
62 id.
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64
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 3: State Economic Trends
Oregon's economy is "hitting the sweet spot" and doing better than most other states. 63 Wages
and household incomes are rising, and workers are coming back into the labor market. 64 Further,
because state revenues are higher than forecasted, Oregon taxpayers should expect to receive a
bonus "kicker" on their income tax returns in 2019.61
While the state economy is doing well, it is also acting more volatile than the national
economy. 66 Josh Lehner, senior economist at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, is
concerned that while the economy is still growing, the pace of that growth is slowing down.
Further, "We expect that pattern to continue—that growth tomorrow will be slower than growth
today."67
Panelists at the 15th Annual Oregon Economic Forum indicated that economic trouble for the
state is likely still a few years away. 68 Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private
Bank has interpreted the data as suggesting that the state economy is one or two years away from
a recession. 69 However, both McCain and Oregon Economic Forum director Tim Duy noted that
a future recession may not be as bad as the Great Recession. 70
Neighboring States
Oregon is geographically well situated because its neighboring states to the north and south have
very strong economies.
Washinfton State's GDP has grown 3 percent over the last five years, the largest increase in the
nation.7 It has the 14th largest GDP in the country at $439.4 billion in 2017.72 However, it also
ranked 47`h in the US by unemployment rate, which was 4.7 percent in June 2018.73
California has the largest economy in the United States. 74 If California was a country, it would
63 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, =VIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 2018).
64 Id. at 1.
61 Jade McDowell, Oregon's economy is strong, but how long will it last? Eastern Oregonian (Oct. 12, 2018),
available at: www.eastoregonian.con-leollocal-news/20181012/ore ons -economy -is -strong -but -how -long -will -it
last.
66 Id.
67 Id.
68 Anthony Macuk, Economists at Oregon forum: Don't expect an imminent recession, The Columbian (Oct. 17,
2018), available at: www_.columbian_.com/news/2018/oct/17/economists-at-oregon-forum-dont-expect-an-inuninent-
recession/.
69 Id.
70 Id.
71 Oregon Small Business Association Foundation, Oregon #12 in nation's Best State Economies, Oregon Business
Report (Oct. 15, 2018).
72 Id.
73 Id.
74 Id.
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65
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
have the fifth largest economy in the world.75 California's GDP grew almost as much as
Washington's at 2.9 percent over the last five years. 76 Its GDP was eleven times that of
Oregon's, at $2.4 trillion. While its unemployment rate is slightly above average at 4.2 percent, it
has had a five year annual employment growth of 2.2 percent, which is the eighth best in the
nation. 77
Measuring the State Economy
Like the national economy, there are similar ways to analyze Oregon's economy: GDP and
employment are important, as infomration specific to Oregon's industries.
i. Gross Domestic Product
State GDP Like the national GDP, Oregon's GDP is a measure of how much the state
produces in goods and services.
Past Trends Since Central Point's first economic element in 1980, Oregon's economy has
transitioned from being a resource-based economy (traditionally timber, fishing, and agriculture)
to being a more mixed manufacturing and marketing economy (with an emphasis on high
technology).78 At the same time, Oregon's GDP has more than doubled, from $100.8 billion in
1997 to $212.6 billion in 2017. See Figure 7 for Oregon's GDP increase.
Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017
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75 Adam Nagourney and Matt Stevens, California Today: The State Faces Some Big Problems. Are We Ready? New
York Times (Oct. 11, 2018), available at: www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/us/california-economy.html.
76 Oregon Small Business Association Foundation, Oregon #12 in nation's Best State Economies, Oregon Business
Report (Oct. 15, 2018).
77 Id.
78 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book, available at:
sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-overview.asl2x.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Recent growth In the the last five years, Oregon's has had slightly above average
economic growth in comparison to other states: its GDP has grown 1.7 percent, the 16th largest
increase in the country, ranking it 24th in the nation.79
Short-term projection Although there is the possibility that the state economy will
continue booming, it is more likely that the state will experience a mild recession around 2020.
See Figure 8 for three likely scenarios for the state economy. The Oregon Economic and
Revenue Forecast of September 2018 anticipates that under the mild recession scenario, the
economy will contract by -1.8 percent in 2020 and -0.6 percent in 2021.80 Absent a recession, the
state's Real Gross State Product is projected to be the seventh fastest among all states across the
country in terms of growth with gains averaging 2.5 percent through 2023.81
Figure 8: Short -Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon 82
Alternative Scenarios sep2m
c
0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
Total Nonfarm Employment
2005 2010 2015 2020
Long-term projection Even if there is a recession in the coming years, the economy
should recover and continue to do well into the long-term.
Conclusion Like the national economy, the state economy should remain healthy over the
next year. However, there is a strong potential that a national recession will spill over into
Oregon, damaging the state economy and harming Oregon residents.
ii. Employment
Overview Oregon has more than two million people in its labor force. 83 Through 2023, the
state economy's total employment is expected to be the eighth strongest among all the states at a
rate of 1.3 percent. 84
Past Trends Nearly every state industry was affected by the Great Recession but by May 2016,
Oregon had more jobs than it had when the recession began. 85 See Figure 9, which shows how
79 Id.
80 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 16 (Sept 2018).
81 Id. at 21.
82 Id.
83 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book.
84 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 21 (Sept 2018).
85 Id.
Page 21
67
2018
2019
2020
2021
Optimistic
Employment
Baseline
8a5e3ne
2.2%
1.9%
1.1%
0.5%
Optimistic
2.6%
4.1%
1.8%
0.1%
Milt) Rec.
Mild Recession
2.2%
0.7%
-1.8%
-0.6%
Severe Recession
2.1%
-2.6%
-4.3%
0.8%
Severe Rec.
Personal IlttAm!
Baseline
5.1%
6.0%
5.2%
4.6%
Optimistic
6.5%
9.1%
6.1%
4A%
Mild Recession
5.1%
4.7%
2.3%
4.5%
Severe Recession
5.1%
L2%
-0.9%
5.9%
Long-term projection Even if there is a recession in the coming years, the economy
should recover and continue to do well into the long-term.
Conclusion Like the national economy, the state economy should remain healthy over the
next year. However, there is a strong potential that a national recession will spill over into
Oregon, damaging the state economy and harming Oregon residents.
ii. Employment
Overview Oregon has more than two million people in its labor force. 83 Through 2023, the
state economy's total employment is expected to be the eighth strongest among all the states at a
rate of 1.3 percent. 84
Past Trends Nearly every state industry was affected by the Great Recession but by May 2016,
Oregon had more jobs than it had when the recession began. 85 See Figure 9, which shows how
79 Id.
80 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 16 (Sept 2018).
81 Id. at 21.
82 Id.
83 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book.
84 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 21 (Sept 2018).
85 Id.
Page 21
67
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
the state unemployment rate has changed depending on the national economic environment.
Figure 9: Oregon's Unemployment Rate
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Recent trends Currently, Oregon's unemployment number is under what is historically
considered full employment for the state. 86 However, for the last three years, the unemployment
rate has been extremely volatile; a few months of extreme declines have been followed by
months of huge increases. 87 IIowever, over the last year the Oregon unemployment rate has
stopped declining. 88 Currently, it is hovering around 4 percent.
,Chert -term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the Oregon
unemployment rate will remain steady for the near future because this job growth rate now
matches population and labor force gains.89 However, if there is a severe recession in the near -
future, unemployment may spike up to 10 percent. 90
Long-term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects a "slightly
stronger economic outlook" in 2025 and beyond.91 Compared to the rest of the country, Oregon's
employment numbers should fare well. Total employment could be the eighth strongest in the
nation at 1.3 percent, while manufacturing employment could be the seventh fastest in the
country at 1.1 percent. 92
Conclusion Based on the economic reports created by the oregon Office of Economic
Analysis, the Oregon unemployment rate should remain steady for the near future. However,
depending on the strength of the anticipated 2020 slowdown, this could change dramatically. If
Oregon's economy is lucky enough to avoid being harmed by the national economy, the
unemployment rate should continue to decrease to near -record levels.
" Id. at 10.
87 Id.
se Id.
89 Id.
90 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 20 (Sept 2018).
" Id. at 15.
92 Id. at 21.
Page 22
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
iii. Industry Strengths
Another way to understand the state economy is to see how the state's population is employed.
Figure 10 list the most common jobs in Oregon, as well as the normal wages. Location Quotient
("LQ") shows the relative strength of that occupation in Oregon's economy. For example, if an
LQ is greater than one it indicates that the concentration is greater in Oregon than the national
average. If it is less than one, it indicates that Oregon has a lower concentration than on average.
Figure 10: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 201693
Occupation title
Employment
Employment
LQ
Median
113,230
63.226
per 1,000 jobs
$16.47
hourly wage
All Occupations
1,790,940
1000
l
$18.26
Office and Administrative Support
265,770
148.399
0.95
$16.96
Sales and Related
181,760
101.488
0.98
$13.45
Food Preparation and Serving
170,710
95.32
1.03
$10.98
Related
Transportation and Material Moving
Production
Management
Education, Training, and Library
Healthcare Practitioners and
Technical
Business and Financial Operations
Construction and Extraction
Personal Care and Service
Installation, Maintenance, and
Repair
Retail Salespersons
Building and Grounds Cleaning and
Maintenance
Computer and Mathematical
Occupations
Healthcare Support
Cashiers
Architecture and Engineering
Community and Social Service
Registered Nurses
Combined Food Preparation and
Serving Workers, Fast Food
Office Clerks, General
Waiters and Waitresses
Protective Service
Annual mean wage
$49,710
$37,430
$37.980
$25,190
119,650
66.806
0.96
$15.73
$36,550
113,230
63.226
0.97
$16.47
$37,460
110,970
61.96
1.23
$42.91
$102,990
103,930
58.031
0.94
$23.01
$57,450
98,610
55.061
0.93
$38.16
$90,100
83,790
46.788
0.9
$29.96
$65,530
72,580
40.526
1.02
$22.45
$513,820
69,360
38.726
1.2
$11.98
$27,900
61,940
34.587
0.89
$21.21
$47,190
61,610
34.402
i 1.07
$11.85
$28,890
55,400
30.931
0.98
$12.77
$29,350
50,900
28.419
0.96
$37.72
$82,190
48,130
26.877
0.93
$16.24
$35,110
45,730
25.535
1.01
$11.03
$24,640
40,820
22.795
1.28
$37.31
$86,810
35,930
20.061
1.39
$20.68
$46,490
35,220
19.667
0.97
$42.32
$87,000
34,950
19.518
0.8
$10.55
$22,930
33,500
18.707
0.89
$15.90
$34,470
33,100
18.48
1.01
$10.62
$26,240
32,740
18.283
0.76
$22.29
$50,010
93 Bureau of Labor and Statistics, May 2016 State Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates
Oregon, Department of Labor (May 2016), available at: www.bls.gov/oes/2016/may/oes or.htm#00-0000.
Page 23
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
The state agency Business Oregon lists six target industries for the state economy: Forestry &
Wood Products, Advanced Manufacturing, High Technology, Food & Beverage Services,
Business Services, and Outdoor Gear & Apparel. 94
Oregon continues to be a leader in forestry and agriculture. While the Oregon economy is much
more diverse than it was thirty years ago, forestry and agriculture still exhibit employment that is
concentrated at many times the national average. However, the timber industry is under pressure
from both the market and federal regulations, and so is projected to grow slowly.95
Oregon's manufacturing industry is weighted towards semiconductors and wood products
relative to the nation, which mostly concentrates on autos and aerospace.96 Although
semiconductors and wood products have been historically strong, they are expected to grow
more slowly in the future. 97 The state's primary metal manufacturing is concentrated as a result
of the continued operation of Oregon"s aluminum industry.
The computer and electronic product manufacturing industries are strong due to the presence of
Intel and Tektronix in the Portland area. Non -store retailers like Harry & David contribute to the
strength in that industry sector. Beverage manufacturing comes from the growing wine and craft
beer industries in Oregon.
Professional and Technical Services is a fast-growing, emerging industry in Oregon.98 It includes
businesses who are using their expertise to help businesses around the world to grow. 99
Management and technical consulting is the largest industry in this grou0p, followed by
engineering services and advertising, public relations, and related services.' 0 For example,
CH2M was founded in Corvallis and now employs over 26,000 employees worldwide. to I
While Oregon is not known as a home for Fortune 500 companies, it does have Nike, a world -
leader in shoes and athletic apparel. The City of Portland is also the home of Columbia
Sportswear, which specializes in the target industry of Outdoor Gear & Apparel.
The Office of Economic Analysis has ranked eleven industries as doing exceptionally well.
Private sector food manufacturing, education, and health care have never suffered strong losses
from a recession. 102 Further, retail employment, wholesale, transportation, warehousing and
utilities, and construction have surpassed their pre -recession levels and are at all time highs. 103
94 Business Oregon, Business Oregon's Target Industry Groups, available at: www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon-
Business/Industries/.
96 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at 17 (Nov. 2018).
96 Id.
97 Id.
98 Business Oregon, Business Oregon's Target Industry Groups, available at www.oreQon4biz.com/Oregon-
Business/Industries/.
99 Id.
100 Id.
101 Id.
102 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 8 (Sep. 2018).
103 Id.
Page 24
70
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
State Economic Crosscurrents:
Primary Risks to Oregon's Economy The state economy appears healthy: GDP is good,
unemployment is low, and Oregon's industries are strong and growing. However, the state
economy is at risk: the national economy could experience a small recession that could drag
down the state economy, trade wars threaten the state's economic vitality, there is a housing
crisis, and wildfires and smoke are harming the tourism industry.
i. The National Economy
Because of the potential for an economic slowdown around 2020, it is important to analyze the
impacts that the last national recessions had on the Oregon economy. In fact, Josh Lehner of the
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis forecasts that a future recession would be like the 1990s
recession, 104 so it is important to review how that particular economic event effected the state
economy.
The 1990s recession was relatively mild on the national economy. 105 In the 1990s, Oregon "lost
just as many jobs as the US did.""' However, many consumer service sectors and industries
actually outperformed the US economy. 107 This included manufacturing, construction, services,
and retail. Nevertheless, the data indicates that there were big manufacturing job losses, with less
losses in the service sectors. 108 As a result, if there is a recession around 2020 and it appears to
be similar to the 1990s recession, Oregon should brace itself for losses in the manufacturing
industry, but for the industry to be able to hunker down and withstand a short economic storm.
ii. Trade Wars
Oregon is particularly susceptible to harm from a trade war because Oregon trades more with
foreign nations than most other states. 109 As a result, should China and Canada retaliate against
US trade tariffs, Oregon's economy could be dealt a particularly strong blow. 110 According to
economist Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, the impact of tariffs from
China and Canada to Oregon's economy could be about $870 million. 111 It has the potential to
impact the state's agriculture industry, aluminum scrap exporters, various consumer goods, and
distillery companies. 112 If there is continued escalation and if global supply chains are disrupted,
"it will be a much bigger economic problem." 113
104 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don't Hurt 'Em, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26, 2018), available at:
oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/10/26/hammer-dont-hurt-em/.
105 Id
106 Id
107 Id.
108 Id.
109 Kathleen McLaughlin, Tariff hikes hit Oregon products, The Bend Bulletin (June 19, 2018), available at:
www.bendbulletin.com/business/6322636-151/tariff-hikes-from-china-canada-hit-oregon-products.
110 Id.
111 Id.
112 Id.
113 Id
Page 25
71
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
iii. Housing Affordability
Oregon is in a housing crisis. Since Central Point adopted its first Economic Element in 1980,
housing prices in Oregon have risen by 315%, making it 4th in the nation for housing price
increases. 114 A major issue is that Oregon is not building enough housing units to keep pace with
the population increase. According to the Oregon Home Builders Association Oregon needs
25,000 new units every year, but only 15,000 are being constructed.''s
Low housing supply has led to rising rental costs and home prices. This, plus a very low rental
vacancy rate, have contributed to an affordable housing crisis across the state. "' According to
the National Low Income Housing Coalition, Oregon is the Yd most unaffordable rental market
in the nation. 117 Further, according to the Oregon Housing and Community Services Director
Margaret Van Vliet, the state has 130,000 extremely low-income households but only 20,000
housing units are affordable for those households."s
This crisis is straining the state economy because housing is a necessary expenditure. If 55
percent of renters in Oregon must pay more than 30 percent of their income to housing,119 then
Oregon consumers will have less purchasing power. Further, if there is not enough housing,
Oregon will have fewer workers and will be less able to entice target industries to relocate.
iv. Wildfires and Smoke
Wildfires and smoke have been negatively impacting the Oregon economy. 120 The last two years
have had record levels of unhealthy air. According to the Oregon Department of Forestry's 2018
fire statistics 70,685 of the acres that it protects burned as of September 2018, which is 53
percent higher than the 10 -year average.
A wildfire impact study released by Travel Oregon in July 2018 found that the state lost $51.5
million in visitor spending due to the 2017 wildfires. 121 According to the study, Josephine
County lost $680,000 and Jackson County lost $2.8 million in spending because of the fires.
Those losses were mostly in the food service and accommodation industries. 122 The smoke also
cost the Oregon Shakespeare Festival in Ashland about $2 million as a result of cancelling
outdoor performances. 123
114 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon's Housing Crisis, available at: habitatoregon.org/affiliates/oregons-housing-cg risis/
115 id.
116 Vickie Aldous, Merkley: Oregon is in a housing crisis, Medford Mail Tribune (March 30, 2018), available at:
mailtribune.cominews/to -storimerkle -ore on -is -in -a -housing -crisis.
117 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon's Housing Crisis.
118 Vickie Aldous, Merkley: Oregon is in a housing crisis.
119 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon's Housing Crisis.
120 KATU Staff, Wildfires, smoke taking its toll on Oregon tourism, KATU (Aug. 14, 2018), available at:
katu. minewsllooallwiidf ke-talon -it -toll-on-ore nn -tourism.
121 Saphara Harrel, The News -Review (Sep. 17, 2018), available at:
www.nrtGda .conAnews/environment/wildfires/wfldfires-im act-the-health-econoLn-of-southem-
oregon/article_f34eff89-4681-5da3-9714-ada8b9l a8cd9.htm1.
172 id.
123 Peter Libbey, Wildfire Smoke Disrupts Oregon Shakespeare Festival, New York Times (Aug. 24, 2018),
available at: www.nytimes.com/2018108124/theaterlorMn-shakespeare-festival-wildfire-smoke.htmi.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 4: Economic Trends in Southern Oregon
Overview Central Point is located in Jackson County and near Josephine County. Both
counties effect Central Point's economy and are often treated as a single region for economic
data.
Jackson County 124 It has a population of 219,270 people as of May 2018,125 which accounts
for approximately 5 percent of Oregon's population. 126 Between 2040 and 2010, it experienced a
1.1 percent increase in population 127 and a 5.26 percent increase in median household income,
from $44,028 to $46,343.128 Its median age is 42.9.
Southern Oregon The Office of Economic Analysis has stated that Southern Oregon was hit
hard by the Great Recession and that the recovery has been more difficult than other parts of the
state. 129 However, local job growth has returned, and poverty rates are falling. While Jackson
County has historic highs in wage growth and employment rates, Josephine County is still in a
bad position, having yet to regain its losses from the last recession. 130
L Gross Domestic Product
Jackson County had the 103`d fastest growth in GDP between 2016 and 2017 among the nation's
384 metropolitan areas (2.6 percent).131 This is compared to the U.S. metropolitan areas growing
by an average of 2.1 percent during the same time frame.1 ' The U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis has projected that the county had a GDP of $8,590,000,000 for 2017.133
Industries in Jackson County that boosted GDP growth were education and health services;
professional and business services; trade; and transportation, warehousing, and utilities. 134 See
Figure 11. Those industries that damaged GDP growth were other services and information. 135
124 Officially labeled "Medford OR (MSA)" (the Medford, Oregon Metropolitan Statistical Area).
125 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents 8 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edi /prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson Report Final.pdf
(PDF warning).
126 210,916/4,142.000 = 5.09%
127 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents 8 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson Report Final.pdf
(PDF warning).
121 Medford, OR Metro Area, Data USA, available at: haps_//datausa.io/profile/gWmedford-or-metro-area/#intro.
129 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at 20 (Nov. 2018).
130 id
131 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017, Qualitylnfo (Sept. 27, 2018),
available at: w�u_alityinfo,arg/-/medford-and-grants-pass-gdp-growth-outpace-u-s-avffage-in-2017.
132 id.
133 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by
Metropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: www.bea.gov/system/files/2018-09/gdp metro0918 O.pdf
(PDF warning).
134 id.
135 id
Page 27
73
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County's GDP 136
Medford MSA (Jackson County) Industry
Contribution to GDP Growth
Educallon and health services 0.83
Professional and business services 0.37
Trade 0.36
Transportation and utilities 029
Cocoon 0.24
0
Leisure and hospitality 22
Natural resources and mining 0.22
Nondurabie-goods manufacturing 0.11
Durable -goods manufacturing 0.08
Financial activities 006
Qavemment 0.03
Other services -0.08
Information -0.08
-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0
Contributions to Percent Change In Real Gross Domestic Product
(Percenhage Points)
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has projected that Josephine County had a GDP of
$2,478,000,000 for 2017.137 Incredibly, this ranked it 31St in the nation in terms of fastest growth
in GDP for 2017.138 During that time, the GDP grew at 4.3 percent.
Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County's GDP 131
Grants Pass MSA (Josephine County) Industry
Contribution to GOP Growth
Financial seWitles 1.82
Educaham and hoa4h semces 0.71
Leisure and hospitality 0.58
Trade 0 55
Construction 0.38
Transportation and utilities 031
afatural resources and mminp 0.23
Durable -goods manufacturing 0.22
Nondurable -goods manufacturing0.16
Oovemrnent 0.08
Information -0.14
Other services -0.26
Professional and business services -0.32
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Contributions to Percent Change In Real Groes Domestic Product
(per -row Points)
In Josephine County, 40 percent of GDP growth came from finance, insurance, and real estate. 140
I36 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017.
137 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by
Metropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: www,bea. ovls sterni iles/2018-091 d -p metro09I 8 O.Pdf
(PDF warning).
Ise id.
139 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017.
too id.
Page 28
74
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Other industries that are strong are trade, education and health services (like in Jackson County),
and leisure and hospitality. See Figure 12. Professional and business services, information, and
other services reduced the GDP.
Conclusion Southern Oregon's economy is growing at a good pace. Both Jackson and
Josephine County are well ranked nationally in terms of the rate of economic growth. However,
they both have a long way to go to recover from the losses they suffered in the Great Recession.
ii. Employment
Recent Trends Southern Oregon was recently ranked in the top 30 job markets in the United
States based on job growth over the last five years. 141 USA Today ranked the nearby City of
Medford as #28 in the nation, saying:
Medford is one of several rapidly growing cities in Oregon adding jobs at a faster pace
than almost anywhere else in the country. Due in large part to the metro area's education
and health services industry, there are over 13,000 more jobs in Medford today than there
were in 2013, a 15.4 percent increase. 142
USA Today also said that Grants Pass had the largest drop in unemployment in the nation
between 2013 and 2018, ranking it as the 18th best job growth economy in the nation. 143 Job
growth was driven by the education and health services industry, which added 1,700 out of the
5,000 new jobs. 144
Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate
FREE
ea'
1"2 99" M& 1990 MW VW WX =6 X1700 VIC WI? VIA Wde, Ste
SAuFed xI.K .d=W 4.S � Waive t. U1. A� of Lutm 51dwf 1¢l llgl-d, 0111L1
141 Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available
at: www.kdrv.comtcontcntlnews/Rct)ort-Medford-Grants-Pass-Amon¢-Too-US-Job-Markets-500405392.html.
142 Samuel Stebbins, 31 cities adding the most jobs as the US economy grows, USA Today (Nov. 12, 2018),
available at: www.usatoday.com/story/money/economv/2018/11/1.2/us-economv-¢rows-cities-addiniz-most-
i obs/3 8319445/.
143 Id.
144 Id.
Page 29
75
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Despite this new growth, Jackson County's unemployment rate is still higher than the national
average.145 In fact, both Jackson and Josephine County had the hi hest unemployment rates out
of all the cities in the USA Today's list of best local economies. 14 However, when compared to
other regions in Oregon, Jackson County has one of the lowest unemployment rates at 4.4
percent. 147 See Figure 13. Neighboring Josephine County is at 5.5 percent while Klamath
County is at 5.8 percent. 148
Conclusion The Southern Oregon economy is growing at a very good rate. While it still needs
to catch up to the rest of the nation, 149 if it is able to avoid being harmed too much by the next
economic slowdown, it should be able to make up its past losses.
iii. Housing
Overview For the last few years the local housing market has been booming. However, it
now appears to be slowing down. This is a major concern for the Southern Oregon economy
because it may inhibit construction of much-needed housing units and continue to drive up the
price of rent.
Recent trends Between 2000 and 2010, the total number of housing units in Jackson County
increased rapidly. 150 Housing units increased by 20.1 percent, with 2,130 units in Central Point
alone (almost half of Medford's growth of 5,000 Units). 151 In 2018 home prices in Jackson
County increased by an average of $12,000 in comparison to 2017, a slower rate than previous
152
years.
Conclusion Southern Oregon is one of the last affordable housing areas in the West Coast. 153
This could encourage Californians to relocate and contribute to the local economy. 154 However,
new residents from wealthier states could encourage local builders to concentrate on constructing
expensive homes and not affordable housing. This could price out younger people, such as
Millennials, and portions of the working class from the region.
145 Leah Thompson, Southern Oregon's Unemployment Rates are Higher than Country's Average, Newswatch 12
(Nov. 4, 2018), available at: www.kdry.com/content/news/Southern-Ore ons-Unem lv ment-Rates-are-Hi her-
than-Countrys-Average-499561461.html.
146 Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available
at: www kdry com/content/newsfRpport-Medford-Grants-Pass-Among-Top-LAS-Jnb-Markets-500405392_html.
147 id.
148 id.
149 id.
150 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents 17 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson Report Final.ydf
(PDF warning).
151 Matt Jordan, Housing market 'softening' in Jackson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at:
kobi5. cominewsll oc al-news/housin g -market -soften ing- in_ iackson-county-89532! .
152 Matt Jordan, Housing market 'softening' in Jackson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at
kobi5.com/news/local-newsthotisiU -market-softenin-in-iackson-count -89532!.
153 Greg Stiles, Housing prices will attract outsiders, Medford Mail Tribune (Oct. 15, 2018), available at:
mailtribune.com/business/housing-prices-will-attTact-outsiders.
154 id
Page 30
76
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 5: The City of Central Point's Trends
Introduction Central Point has unique economic and social trends when compared to the
Southern Oregon region. Its population is fast-growing, relatively young, and its workers
generally commute short distances to work.
Measuring the City's Trends
i. Commuting Patterns
Introduction The Department of Land Conservation & Development (DLCD) recommends
analyzing commute patterns as one of the ways to determine land use needs.
Central Point exhibits a somewhat unique combination of commuting patterns. See Figure 14.
Typically, cities that have a low percentage of its residents working within the city also have
relatively high commute times. But that is not the case for Central Point, which has only 21
percent of its residence working outside the city. Those residents have much shorter commute
times when compared to both the national and state averages for workers commuting outside
their cities. This is probably because a large amount of Central Point residents work in north
Medford. In many cases this is only a few blocks from where they live. Many may also work in
White City, which can be accessed by roads with little congestion, such as Interstate 5 or Table
Rock Road.
Figure 14: " 155
<. CLE141 iUIL1L INV3 UUM %_tJLUL91UEJUr2
KALLUXUb
Worker Travel Information
Jackson
Central
workers 16 years and over
Oregon
County
Point
Means of Transportation to Work
Car, truck, or van
82.7%
86.5%
93.8%
Drove alone
72.0%
76.8%
86.0%
Carpooled
10.8%
9.7%
7.8%
Public transportation (excluding
taxicab)
4.2%
0.9%
1.5%156
Walked
3.9%
3.4%
2.0%
Bicycle
2.1%
1.4%
1.4%
Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means
1.0%
1.0%
0.2%
Worked at home
6.1%
6.7%
2.7%
Travel Time to
155 U.S. Bureau of the Census.
156 The number of residents using public transportation was listed as 0.0% in the data set. However, that is
improbable. Other Census Bureau data lists it as 1.5% and so that is included here. See U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5 -
year Estimate, DataUSA (2016), available at: datausa.iolproSlelgeolcentral-point-or/.
Page 31
77
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Less than 10 minutes
17.5%
20.6%
21.8%
10 to 14 minutes
16.9%
22.2%
29.7%
15 to 19 minutes
16.5%
19.3%
24.7%
20 to 24 minutes
15.0%
15.2%
11.2%
25 to 29 minutes
5.9%
5.0%
3.4%
30 to 34 minutes
11.9%
8.8%
5.5%
35 to 44 minutes
5.4°/a
3.3%
1.8%
45 to 59 minutes
5.6%
2.9%
0.4%
60 or more minutes
5.3%
2.7%
1.6%
Mean travel time to work (minutes)
22.1
18.4
14.8
Place of Work
Worked in state of residence
97.8%
98.8%
99.5%
Worked in county of residence
77.5%
94.9%
97.7%
Worked outside co,.:nty of residence
20.3°!
3.9%
1.8%
Worked outside state of residence
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
Living in a place
79.4%
74.3%
100.0%
Worked in place of residence
38.6%
37.8%
21.0%
Worked outside place of residence
40.8%
36.5%
79.0%
Not living in a place
20.6%
25.7%
0.0%
ii. Local Population Forecast
Introduction In addition to reviewing commuting patterns and economic trends, it is also
important to review trends related to population growth. The DLCD recommends analyzing
population because it is one of the best means to determine Central Point's future land
demand. 157 While economic trends are subject to rapid changes without much warning,
population growth is much easier to predict.
This section contains a short analysis of population trends as of 2019. For a more comprehensive
analysis, see the Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039).
Past Trends Since Central Point published its first Economic Element, Jackson County's total
population has grown from roughly 114,000 to 219,270 people. 158 See Figure 15. The high
growth rates of the 1970s were a result of relative economic prosperity while the decline in the
1980s was a result of challenging economic conditions. 159 During the 1990s, the county's growth
rates increased again at first but then declined later in the decade. Jackson County's total
population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of just over 1 percent.
15' Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, Tips for
Conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (March 2008).
158 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Coordinated Population Forecast: 2018 through 2068
(Jackson County) (June 2018) at 8-9.
159 Id.
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78
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Figure 15: Jackson County --Total Population by Five-year Intervals (1975-2017)'°"
250,000 ------------------------------ 4.0%
3.5% o
200,000 - ----------------------
3.0%
m
150,000 2.5%
2.0%
8100,000 - - 1.5%
~ 50,000
0.5% >
4
0I- 010%
1975 low 1985 logo 1995 2000 2005 r 2010 2017
~ Aopu10e1on 11%as0 194000 M40 144359 167,330 151,269 nZ954 204205 2149W
�AAQR SAM 3.2% 0.511 Lft 7-7x � 1.611 LY%f L1% ± 0.9K
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 Censuses; Population Research Center (PRCj, k+l( 1SLr�rrnaa! csvRlacC5171J, iya�, ay7�,
2005 and 2017
Central Point posted a growth rate higher than that of Jackson County, at 2.9 percent from 2000-
2010.161 That makes it the second fastest growing area in the Rogue Valley, just after Eagle
Point's rate of 5.6 percent.162 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101 people, 163
ranking behind Medford's 82,566 people and just behind the City of Ashland's 21,501 people. 164
Reasons for Increase The county's positive population growth has largely been the result of net
immigration. 165 The aging population has led to an increase in deaths and local women have
postponed having children, which has resulted in birth stagnation. As a result, without
immigration, Southern Oregon would be experiencing a "natural decrease" in population.
Long-term projections Jackson County is likely to grow at a fast pace in the short-term. 166
The Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) forecasts that Jackson
County's will grow from 219,270 people to 264,951 people by 2039.167 See Figure 16.
161 Id. at 10.
161 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.12rc/files/Jackson Report Final.pdf
(PDF warning).
162 Id.
163 See City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12.
164 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018
through 2068.
Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents (May 2018), available at: www.12dx.edu/Drc/sites/www.12dx.edu.prc/files/Jackson Report Final.pdf
(PDF waming)at 9.
165 Id
166 Id.
167 City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13.
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79
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
According to the Population Research Center at Portland State University, the City of Central
Point is expected to capture a much larger share of Jackson County's future population than it
has in the past. 168 Central Point is expected to have a short-term growth rate of 1.5 percent, 169
and by 2039, Central Point will have 26,317 people, making it larger than the City of Ashland.t70
This also means that approximately 7 percent of the county population will live in Central
Point. 171
f1mire 16: Ponulation Growth Proiections For CRY of Central Point and Jactrson Conn
1'c a r
Ce ntral Point
Jackson Como
Jus c hitll Ca ant E
2019
19,101
219,270
86,423
2020
19,714
235,066
88,274
2025
21,035
246,611
90,177
2030
22,920
257,256
93,194
2035
24,815
263,006
95,677
2039
26,317
264.951
97,377
Chane: 2019 to 2039
7,216
45,681
10,954
Figur
e 17: Central Point Population Pyramid"'
Central Point 2010 Population Pyramid
95+ years
90 to 94 years
85 to 89 years
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years ■ Female
45 to 49 years ■ Mate
40 to 44 years
35 to 39 years
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
800 500 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
168 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents (May 2018).
169 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13.
"' Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018) at 47.
t71 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12.
172 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13, Table 1.
113 City of Central Point Economic Element 2013-2033 citing U.S. Census Bureau.
Page 34
WI
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
The population pyramid for Central Point, see Figure 17, depicts the typical shape for a town
without a university. The "gap" in residents aged 20-24 exists in most non -university towns
because this is the age where young adults leave to attend college or obtain employment
elsewhere. Although this data will be less valuable after the 2020 census, it still helps to predict
what types of services and land use Central Point needs to offer. The City's population is less
top-heavy than either the nation or the county because fewer people aged 65 or older live in
Central Point. Although the Southern Oregon region experiences high levels of retirees
relocating to the area, this does not appear to be the case in Central Point. However, the ongoing
Twin Creeks project may alter future data.
Because of the relative youth of the population, Central Point has a large percentage of families
with working -aged individuals aged 30-50 and their children under the age of 14. Proportionally,
this means that Central Point has higher levels of working -age individuals than the national
population. This shows that Central Point has a strong labor base, and that there will continue to
be a strong demand for education services.
Conclusion Central Point must prepare to have its population grow by almost 38% over the
next 20 years. Should the population trends continue, the City must also be prepared to house a
population younger than a typical non -university town.
iii. Regional Employment Forecast
Introduction The DLCD also recommends analyzing job growth forecasts as a means to
determine a city's future land use needs. 174
The employment forecast data used in this section was generated by the Research Division at the
Oregon Employment Department through 2027. This is the best region -specific data currently
available. The following analysis correlates to both population growth per the City of Central
Point Population & Demographics Element (2019) and the anticipated expansion of specific
occupations and industries. The subsequent conclusions assume that the forecasted rates of 2017-
2027 will remain constant through 2039.
Growth According to Guy Tauer, the Regional Economist for Jackson and Josephine
counties, between 2017 and 2027, 14,111 new jobs will open in the "Rogue Valley region "175
due to population growth. 176 In addition, there will be 148,807 job openings to replace workers
who leave the occupation or the workforce. 177 A worker who leaves a job and then is hired to do
the same job at another establishment would not be counted as a replacement opening. 178
174 Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, Tips for
Conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (March 2008).
17' Defined as Jackson and Josephine Counties.
16 Guy Tauer, rogue Valley Employment Projections by Occupation 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 9, 2018), available at: www.gualityinfo,org/-/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by-
occupation-2017-2027.
177 Id.
178 Id.
Page 35
81
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, 2017-2027179
Service
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative Support
Professional and Related
Transportation and Material Moving
Health Care
Management, Business. and Financial
ProduGtion
Construction and Extraction
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Replacement Job Openings
■ Growth Job Openings
10,000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50,040
Service Industry The service industry had the largest share of total jobs in 2017. See Figure
18 for both industry -specific job openings and job growth. The service industry is also expected
to add the most new jobs in Jackson County and have the greatest number of total openings by
2027.180 This industry includes food preparation, personal care services, building maintenance,
ground keeping, and protective service occupations. 181 This means that Central Point will need to
dedicate more lands to retail use.
Sales and Related Industries After the service industry, the greatest total openings will be in
sales and related industries, such as office and administrative support—each with approximately
21,800 total openings. 182 These have growth rates of 6.7 percent and 5.3 percent.183 This low
growth forecast is probably a result of labor-saving technologies like self -checkout stations,
automated inventory systems, and online retail sales. 84 This means that Central Point will need
to dedicate additional lands to office use.
Health Care The health care and social assistance industries currently account for
approximately one out of six jobs in the Rogue Valley. 185 In fact, the area's current employment
is concentrated in this industry with over 20,830 employees. Through 2027, health care is
179 Id.
1801d.
181 Id.
182 Id.
1831d.
184 Id.
185 Guy Tauer, Rogue valley Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 3, 2018), available at: www.guglityinfo.orgL-/—rogue-valley-emp[ayment-poiections-by-industr
s
2017-2027.
Page 36
82
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
expected to have the most job openings—adding 3,780 new jobs. 186 See Figure 20 for industry -
specific employment growth. This means that health care occupations will continue to grow by
approximately 17.7 percent. 187 This is because a growing and aging population will demand
more health care services, which will in turn create more employment opportunities in this
recession -resistant industry. 188
Although health care in the Rogue Valley is mostly concentrated in Medford, given that it has
both Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center and Providence Medford Medical Center, Central
Point has begun to make inroads into the industry with the Providence Medical Plaza on North
Pacific Highway. This indicates that Central Point may want to dedicate more land to office
space use in order to house more health care workers.
Construction Over the decade, construction is expected to have the fastest job growth
rate in the Rogue Valley, up by 25 percent. This is because housing construction, while still
below pre -Great Recession levels, is picking back up. 189 As a result, Central Point may need
more industrial -zoned land for construction shops, warehouses, machinery storage, and company
offices.
Professional & Management, Business, and Financial The two industries of Professional
and Related services and Management, Business, and Financial services will both be growing at
a healthy rate. Professional and related occupations will have a growth rate of 10 percent. As a
result, Central Point will want to dedicate a good amount of its employment lands for office
space use.
186 Id.
187 Id.
188 Id.
189 Id.
Page 37
83
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2017-2027190
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Professional and business services
Construction
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Natural resources and mining
Local government
Other services and private households
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
Financial activities
Private educational services
Federal government
State government
Wholesale trade
Information
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Manufacturing and retail Manufacturing and retail trade are still expected to add jobs by
2027, just under 1,000 for both industries. 91 See Figure 20 for industry employment changes.
However, the possibility of an economic slowdown in these sectors should be taken into
consideration when allocating land.
Leisure and hospitality About one in eleven jobs in the Rogue Valley were in leisure and
hospitality in 2017.192 This tourism- reliant sector is forecast to add 1,930 jobs between 2017 and
2027.193 However, Central Point should consider the devastating effects that wildfires and smoke
could have on the industry in the near -future.
190 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 3, 2018), available at: www.gualitvinfo.orW--irogue-valley-employment-praiectians-} y -industry_
2017-2027.
191 Id.
192 Id.
193 Id.
Page 38
84
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2027194
Jackson and Josephine Counties
Em to meat Sector
2017
2027
I
Chane
%
Change
Total Employment
123,190
137,610
14,420
12%
Total payroll employment
116,030
129,390
13,360
12%
Total private
101,750
114,290
12,540
12%
Natural resources and mining
3,600
4,430
830
23%
Mining and logging
550
570
20
4%
Construction
5,290
6,600
1,310
25%
Manufacturing
10,740
11,690
950
9%
Durable goods
7,170
7,500
330
5%
Wood product manufacturing
2,610
2,670
60
2%
Trade, transportation, and utilities
25,020
26,430
1,410
6%
Wholesale trade
3,190
3,290
100
3%
Retail trade
18,110
19,090
980
5%
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
3,720
4,050
330
9%
Information
1,410
1,410
0
0%
Financial activities
5,310
5,630
320
6%
Professional and business services
9,290
10,650
1,360
15%
Private educational and health services
21,830
25,790
3,960
18%
Private educational services
1,000
1,180
180
18%
Health care and social assistance
20,830
24,610
3,780
18%
Health care
18,480
21,710
3,230
17%
Leisure and hospitality
14,580
16,510
1,930
13%
Accommodation and food services
12,700
14,290
1,590
13%
Other services and private households
4,680
5,150
470
10%
Government
14,280
15,100
820
6%
Federal government
2,010
2,180
170
8%
Federal government post office
450
450
0
0%
State government
2,750
2,910
160
6%
Local government
9,520
10,010
490
5%
Local education
6,790
7,160
370
5%
Self-employment
7,160
8,220
1,060
15%
Using the total employment date in Figure 20, we know how many people each industry
employed in 2017 and a projection for those figures through 2027. As a result, we can calculate
the annual job growth for the region per industry. Using the foregoing data, and assuming that
the rates remain constant, a sample jobs forecast for the Rogue Valley region can be calculated
through 2039, as seen in Figure 21.
194 Guy Tauer, Rogue Dalley Industry Employment Projections data (June 26, 2018), available at:
www-qgW ityinfo.orWdocuments/ 10182/92203/Rogg2±Valley+Indus=Emp to yment+Pro iect ion s+2 017-
2027?version=1.5 (Excel warning)
Page 39
85
City of Central Point
Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast
Jackson and Josephine Counties by lodwtry Sector
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Forecasted
Total Job Growth
Number of Number of Change in Forecasted
Forecast Southern
Jobs in Jobs in Jobs through .Annual Change
Oregon 2019
lndustry Sector 201719. 202719f 20271Q7 in Jobs 198
through 2039'99
Construction & Natural Resources
8,890
11,030
2,140
214
4,280
Manufacturing
10,740
11,690
950
95
1,900
Transportation & Utlilities
3,720
4,050
330
33
660
Wholesale Trade
3,190
3,290
100
10
200
5ubtotul industrial Jobs
26,540
39,060
3,520
352
7,040
Retail Trade
18,110
19,090
980
98
1,960
Financial
5,310
5,630
320
32
640
Services (pmfessional, business, health,
pnvnte education, hospitality, inform ion)
4 /,110
54,360
7,250
725
14,500
Subtotal Con ntetclall5ervices Jobs
70.330
79,080
8.550
855
17,100
lnstitutional/Gove-.unent
14,280
15,100
820
82
1,640
Other
11,840
13,370
1,530
153
3.1160
Votal New Jobs
123.190
137,610
14 420
1.442
18.8411
In total, if the job growth rates projected for 2017-2027 are maintained for the next two decades,
Southern Oregon will grow by 28,840 jobs by 2039.
iv. Regional Competitiveness
Generally, employers make locational decisions based upon a region's competitive position for
their industry. They then choose between communities within that region based upon localized
factors. So, identifying industries in which the region can become competitive is an important
step in developing land use policies and strategies to capture economic development potential for
which Jackson County is well positioned.
22: Jackson
Maior Industry
Farm Employment
Forestry, Fishing, and Related
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Shift -Share Analysis 2010-201719.
LQ 1 U.S. Growth rate196
2010 2017 1 Percent Net
Region Shift197
Percent Net
1.63
1.48
13.44
365
-10.3
-280
3.95
4.02
13.44
286
1
21
0.32
0.53
13.44
35
74.74
194
1
1.05
13.44
742
4.9
271
0.9
1.08
13.44
924
20.57
1,414
195 Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP), Shift -Share Analysis of Employment Growth
Jackson County, 2010-2017 (data analyzed Nov. 15, 2018), available at: ore og nreaproject.org_/analysis/shift-
share/too ls/410029/2010/2017/.
196 The change in local employment that would have occurred for a specific industry had it grown at the national
growth rate of all industries combined.
197 The additional gain (or loss) in local employment for a specific industry beyond the national growth and industry
mix effects resulting from the industry growing faster (or slower) than the same industry nationally. This does not
represent actual jobs lost but jobs that could have been created had the region kept up with the national growth rate.
Page 40
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Retail Trade
1.4
1.39
13.44
13.44
2,079
-1.45
-325
Transportation and Warehousing
0.91
0.82
13.44
424
-14.78
-466
Information
1.09
0.79
-60.57
13.44
298
-29.55
-655
Finance and Insurance
0.71
0.65
,
13.44
553
-10.72
-441
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing , 1.19 1.16 I 13.44 773 1 -3.52 -203
Professional, Scientific, and
0.71
0.71
13.44
712
-1.82
-96
Technical Services
Management of Companies and
1.36
0.74
13.44
233
-60.57
-1,051
Enterprises
Administrative and Waste Services
0.83
0.77
13.44
729
-9.23
-501
Educational Services
0.55
0.6
13.44
190
10.04
142
Health Care and Social Assistance
1.28
1.31
13.44
2,064
2.11
324
Arts, Entertainment, and
1.37
1.34
13.44
441
-3.53
-116
Recreation
Accommodation and Food
Services
1.08
1.16
13.44
1,097
8.11
662
Other Services (except Public
Administration)
0.98
0.98
13.44
810
-0.54
-32
Federal Civilian
0.93
0.98
13.44
239
4.74
85
Military
0.43
0.43
13.44
77
-0.76
4
State Government
0.59
0.29
13.44
265
-51.42
-1,016
Local Government
0.78
0.86
13.44
940
8.99
629
Other/Suppressed Industries 198 10.69
0.69
13.44
384 1
0.07
2
Total Employment I
1
1
13.44
14,662 1
-1.23
-1,343
See Figure 22 for how specific industries are doing in the Rogue Valley as compared to the
national average. The shift -share column (LQ) measures the degree to which an industry sector
has outperformed the nation within that industry's employment levels during a specified time
period. If the regional growth in an industry outpaced the change in the national share then there
would be a positive (greater than 1) shift share.
If an industry sector has out -performed in a shift share analysis and the concentration within that
industry also exceeds national averages in a Location Quotient (LQ) analysis, then those
industries are likely to be ones for which the region has exhibited durable comparative
advantages.
Between 2010 and 2017, the region outperformed the nation in nine industries. Of these, mining,
manufacturing, educational services, and accommodation and food services outperformed the
nation by at least eight percent. Mining had the highest percent gain in employment relative to
the nation during the period, however given how little mining industry the area had previously,
this comes out to a gain of only 194 new jobs. The second strongest shift came from
manufacturing at 20.5 percent and with 1,414 new jobs.
i98 The "Other/Suppressed Industries" category portrayed in this table represents a combined total of those industries
for which data were unavailable due to confidentiality restrictions. Those industries that are combined include:
Utilities; Wholesale Trade.
Page 41
87
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
There are three industries that the region is lagging in significantly: management of Companies
and Enterprises, Information, and State Government. Management of Companies and Enterprises
is a classification that involves employment in companies that run other types of smaller
companies. Although the previous Economic Element indicated that the region was substantially
ahead of the national curve (at 55 percent shift), the region is now significantly behind the
national curve (at negative 60.57 shift). This makes sense given the somewhat remote location of
the region from a major city and the levels of expertise that would typically be required in this
type of industry.
The Information industry includes publishing, software, broadcast, and internet industries. It is
unclear why the region is behind by almost 30 percent; however, it may have to do with the
Southern Oregon region lacking a research university, which would attract younger information
professionals, The relative proximity of Silicon Valley (less than 400 miles away) probably
contributes to a brain -drain of these young workers. The lack of growth in State Government
jobs makes sense because most of the Oregon governmental offices are in the state capital,
Salem, or other parts of the Willamette Valley.
V. Economic Development Context
T„ ad itinn to maacnrina arnnnmir. rinm .V'tatP.wicle. Planning Groal 9 encourages, Cities to consider
traits in their local economies that have yet to be numerically qualified. These traits are evaluated
below through an analysis of Central Point's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
23: Central Point's Qualitative Trcnds199
Trait
Location, size,
Relatively low
percentage of large retail
and buying
compared to population.
power of
National exposure with
markets
specialty food industry.
Economic
Direct communication
development
and collaboration
efforts and
between City staff and
programs
local businesses.
Transportation City has good freeway
facilities and airport access.
Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Relatively low per -
household income.
Few large employers
within city limits the role
of the City in setting the
policy and agenda for
regional economic
development.
Central Point's I-5
interchange (Exit 33) is
an old design with
limited capacity.
If relative wages can
be increased, Central
Point can capitalize
on expanding
population.
If City can add a few
large employers in a
particular sector, the
City will be able to
drive regional policy
in that area.
Expansion of Exit 35
would add an
additional freeway
interchange and
opportunities for key
industries to locate
there.
Failure to capture
proportional growth
over time, especially in
specialty foods.
Capitalizing on this
opportunity will require
a coordinated strategy.
199 See City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 (2013) citing City of Central Point.
Page 42
Growth around Exit 35
needs to help economic
development without
threatening the function
of the interchange.
City of Central Point
Public City hay practical
racilities and approach to its public
servir,:e+ facility needs and
requirements,
Workforce
development
Regulatory
barriers
City's workforce has
access to Rogue
Community College
(RCC), Southern Oregon
University (SOU), the
Job Council, and other
training programs.
The Greater Blear Creel:
Valley Regional
Problem -Solving Plan
("RPS") should
encourage growth in the
Tolo area and Central
Point could capitalize on
the advantages present.
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Cit}'+ water is supplied
by the Medford Water
Commission and sewage
treatment is provided by
the Regional Water
Rec:iamation Facility
operated b} the City of
hledford under long-term
agreements.
Regionally, there are few
post -graduate degree
opportunities, no
research university, and
no proactive regional
programs to encourage
college graduates to
locate to the area. High
school drop -outs have
limited employability.
The RPS may require
additional planning
work.
Page 43
City needy to ensure
that it continues to
have adequate
capacsty to sent/
future employment
demands.
Advocate for training
and programs that
directly benefit
Central Point
employers. Support
local schools to
minimize high school
drop-out rates.
Capitalize on the
opportunity rnr
targeted employment
growth to the Tolo
area.
Maintaining a good
relationship with the
City or MedFord and the
Medford Water
Commissson is
important to avoid
future service disputes
or too large an increase
to rates.
High school drop outs
have limited
employability and
demand
disproportionate
services.
Delays in making the
Tolo area market ready.
vi. Competitive Position Summary
When all the regional and localized factors are synthesized, there appear to be at least four target
industry sectors where the City of Central Point exhibits a strong and durable competitive
position. These are the same industries identified in the 2013 Economic Element, and the
conclusions in 2013 remain accurate in 2019.
• The specialty foods cluster that includes Lillie Belle Farms chocolates, Rogue Creamery,
and the nearby Seven Oaks Farm just outside Central Point's municipal boundary
represents a small but unique opportunity for growth.
• Truck transportation and related support industries pay high wages to City residents and
is a sector that both the Region and the City are well positioned to serve.
• Planned population growth in Central Point in the regional plan is expected to support
expanded retail_ commercial within the City as the buying power of the City's residential
base expands.
• Planned population growth is also likely to support expanded healthcare services in the
City. Overall, this sector is expected to grow rapidly within the region as exemplified by
a __ i l a' > 1 �. vas A l+L..,, l +;,,r• -vestments In
the Providence Medical Group building on l ront Sheet. A1+U_V _11 'vxls�ul�
Medford hospitals are likely to concentrate much of the regional growth, Central Point
has an opportunity to keep pace with the growth in this sector.
Central Point also has some unique spatial characteristics that may support future economic
activities in two other sectors due to the Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Problem -Solving
Plan ("RPS"). Specifically, there are aggregate employment uses and Erickson Air Crane that are
located within the Tolo Urban Reserve Areas. These are both employer types with special needs,
but the areas inclusion in the RPS Plan may present opportunities to work with these employers
for mutual benefit.
vii. Assessment of Central Point's Economic Development Potential
The DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook recommends assessing
the City's economic potential based on several factors. See Figure 24 for subjective scoring on
each of Central Point's competitive market advantages and disadvantages.
Central Point is located well in relation to markets and key transportation facilities. It is situated
halfway between two major cities, Portland and San Francisco, is located on Interstate 5, and has
ready access to the Rogue Valley International Airport. The drawbacks are that it is not located
close to a major metro area and most flights from the airport require connecting flights at a major
hub.
Central Point has excellent public facilities like water and sewer. There are rarely any service
disruptions.
N�
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Central Point has fair access to labor markets. Its relative isolation from a major population
center does increase costs and decreases its ready access. The same is true with materials and
energy, aside from some natural resources like timber. But, as Section 5, Subsection iv
demonstrates above, the Southern Oregon region is competitive in several labor markets.
Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential
Descri tion
Score
Location relative to markets
3
Availability of key transportation facilities
3
Key public facilities (water, sewer, etc.)
4
Labor Market (cost and access)
2
Materials and energy (availability and cost)
2
Necessary support services
3
Pollution control issues
3
Education and technical training
2
Other such as land availability)
3
Total
25
Scores: 1= poor, 2 =fair, 3 = good, 4 = excellent
Central Point has good access to necessary support services. What businesses cannot get
internally or in near -by Medford, they can get at a nearby major city like Portland, or probably
find online.
Central Point has few pollution control issues, although the wildfire smoke in the summer
months does harm to the local economy and industries like tourism.
The City has fair access to education and technical training. The area hosts both Rogue
Community College (RCC) and Southern Oregon University (SOU). Other than that, most
students must travel either to the Oregon Institute of Technology in nearby Klamath Falls, to a
state school like the University of Oregon and Oregon State University in the Willamette Valley,
or out of state altogether.
Lastly, Central Point has good access to other market advantages, such as a ready supply of land
in the Rogue Valley and surrounding communities.
Page 45
91
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
viii. Central Point's Projected Job Growth
Next, a forecast for Central Point's future job growth needs to be calculated. This is key to
determining how much land is needed per industry category in Central Point through 2039. The
following analysis is based on Central Point's population compared to the regional population.
That population percentage is then applied to the regional job forecast.
For example, given that the population of Jackson County in 2018 was 219,270200 and the
population of Josephine County is 87,487,201 and Central Point has 19,101 people, 202 the City of
Central Point currently has approximately 6.22 percent of the regional population. As a result,
we can assume that Central Point will capture approximately 6.22 percent of jobs created
regionally in the year 2019.203
By 2039, Central Point will grow by approximately 7,216 residents.214 This means that by 2039,
Central Point will have approximately 7.06 percent of the regional population because Jackson
County will have 264,951 people and Josephine County 107,470 people. See Figure 25. As a
result, we can assume that Central Point will capture approximately 7.06 percent of jobs created
regionally in the year 2039.205
But we need to know more than how many jobs are created in the year 2019 or in the year
2039—we need to know how many Jobs will be created every year between 2019 and 2039 to
get the total number of employment acres Central Point is going to need. Unfortunately, we only
have the regional job data for those individual years, the regional and city population data, and
what we have calculated to be Central Point's share of the region's job growth. However, if we
take an average of Central Point's population share (that is, the average of 6.22 percent and 7.06
percent), we can estimate the average percentage of the regional population that Central Point
will capture over the next 20 years, which is 6.64 percent. As a result, we can assume that
Central Point will capture approximately 6.64 percent of the new jobs created regionally between
2019 and 2039.
Using the data in Figure 25, we can apply Central Point's projected population rates to forecast
the number of jobs that Central Point will likely gain in each industry from 2019 to 2039. See
Figure 26 for the forecasted job numbers. Ultimately these numbers show that by 2039, Central
200 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018
through 2068 47 (June 30, 2018), available at:
www pdx edi /p_re/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson Report Final.pdf (PDF warning).
2201 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Josephine County Coordinated Population Forecast 2015
through 2065 33 (June 2015), available at:
www.pdx.edu/Rrc/sites/www.pdx.odu,2rc/files/losephine Forecast Report 201506.pdf (PDF warning).
202 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018
through 2068.
203 Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population,
not that it has an equal percentage of total jobs now existing.
204 That is Central Point's forecasted 2039 population less the estimated 2018 population from Figure 25 (26,317 —
19,101 = 7,216).
205 Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population,
not that it has an equal percentage of total jobs now existing.
Page 46
92
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Point will add 1,915 new jobs. This means that Central Point will need employment land to
house these new workers.
Fieure 25: Central Point's nodulation erowth rate
Central Point's Ca are Rate of Job Growth 1 6.2Dx47 1%
source: 2019 PRC Coordinated Population Forecast, Jackson and Josephine Counties
11i!ure 26: Central Point's 20-vear iob forecast lav industr
[ventral Point's Total Jots
southern 0mgon's Growth Caphtne at 6.8%
20-VearJob of Regional Forecast
Indiatr) Sector !•orecatst'ry' (2039)
Construction & Natural Resources
4,280
289
Average
1,900
128
Transportation & Utfi}ities
Papuaitiun Sharv,
City/County
Estimated 2019
Estimated 2039
2019-2030215
Central Point's Population 1 �
19,101
26,317
Jackson County's Population2 t6
219,270
264,951
Jure bine Coun 's Po eulation-' 1 a
86,423
97,377
1'utal Por uladon of Both Counties
3115,69;
363,.128
Central Point's Ca are Rate of Job Growth 1 6.2Dx47 1%
source: 2019 PRC Coordinated Population Forecast, Jackson and Josephine Counties
11i!ure 26: Central Point's 20-vear iob forecast lav industr
[ventral Point's Total Jots
southern 0mgon's Growth Caphtne at 6.8%
20-VearJob of Regional Forecast
Indiatr) Sector !•orecatst'ry' (2039)
Construction & Natural Resources
4,280
289
Manufacturing
1,900
128
Transportation & Utfi}ities
660
45
W holes a le Trach
200
14
Subtotal Industrial Jobs
7,040
476
Retail Trade
1,960
132
Financial
640
43
Services (professional, business, health,
private education, hospitality, inlonnation)
14,500
980
Subtotal C:omierciallSetvices Mobs
17,100
1 [ 3
InstitutionaWovemment 1,640 111
Other 3,060 207
l'otal Mess ,lobs 28,840 1,938
Based on the foregoing data, Central Point will need enough employment lands over the next 20
years for approximately 1,948 new jobs.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 6: Land Demand
Introduction This section projects the City of Central Point's short term (2019-2024) and long-
term (2019-2039) supply of land needed to satisfy employment projections.
Having reviewed economic trends on a national, state, regional, and local level, it is important to
use that information to identify economic development opportunities that are likely to expand or
locate in or near Central Point within the next twenty years. Understanding the types of sites
needed will enable the City to successfully implement its economic development objectives.
Legal Requirements Central Point must have adequate supplies of land to meet employment
needs for a range of employment opportunities. These lands must be adequate to capitalize on the
City's economic opportunities in terms of both quantity and type.
Central Point is required to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses
that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand within the city's urban growth boundary.
OAR 660-009-0015. A use or category of use will be reasonably expected to expand or locate to
Central Point if it possesses the appropriate locational factors for the use or category of use.
Economic Growth Rate Forecast
It is expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a
whole across all industries over the next twenty years and may reasonably he expected to exceed
regional growth rates in target industries. Central Point's population is projected to grow at 1.5%
through 2039, see Figure 17 supra.
However, consistent with the City's competitive positions described above there are at least three
sectors where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out-
perform the overall regional growth. Those sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking
and warehousing, and retail. It is in these three industry sectors that the State's regional forecast
is appropriately adjusted upward to reflect localized opportunities (See Figure 27).
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing
This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth
assumptions in the manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this
niche sector but may buoy a slight edge over regional growth rates. However, exceptional growth
in this sector is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in
the future materializes, then that may warrant a re-evaluation of the overall manufacturing
employment growth forecast in the Economic Element.
ii. Trucking and Warehousing
The trucking and warehousing industry is strong regionally with higher than average
employment concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much
Page 48
94
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
higher than regional or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents
an excellent opportunity to expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relatively high
wages. Also, this industry has potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry that
creates the potential to outpace overall regional growth to a modest degree.
Central Point is also uniquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regional
comparative advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan
contemplates that the "Tolo" area is well situated for this type of economic activity north of
Interchange 35 which already serves industrial traffic to White City and aggregate resource
traffic in the area. There is very little residential and commercial development around the
interchange. No new residential development is contemplated in the regional plan, so this area is
well positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded transportation and warehousing
uses.
However, the Tolo area is constrained because of a relative lack of water service. Any attempt to
take advantage of this area would require a large investment to increase water and provide other
necessary utilities.
iii. Retail
Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point. Retail trade and associated
employment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth is
essentially consumer growth. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that retail trade in Central Point
will outpace the two -county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average population
growth as set out in the County's coordinated population forecast for the City. From an industry
categorization versus land use perspective there are some small but important differences. Land
use terminology included within the retail category includes restaurants and bars while
restaurants are categorized in the leisure and hostility industry sectors, so growth in this sector is
appropriately consistent with the retail uses in both categorization schemes such as a boutique.
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry
Figure 27 depicts a reasonable 10 -year planned growth rate by industry for the City of Central
Point. This growth rate utilizes the state's regional forecast for all industries through 2027 and
shows how much each industry is likely to grow both statewide and in the City of Central Point.
Page 49
95
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Fipure 27: Central Point Pro iected Growth Rate by 1ndustrv206
State % Change, Central Point %
Industry Sector 2017-2027 Change, 2017-2027
Total Private
12.9%
12.0%
Natural Resources and Mining
11.1%
23.0%
Construction
17.5%
25.0%
Manufacturing
6.7%
9.0%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
10.5%
6.0%
Wholesale
8.1%
3.0%
Retail
9.4%
5.0%
Transportation, Warehousinf&Utilities
17.3%
9.0%
Leisure and Hospitality
13.1%
13.0%
Professional & Business Services
17.00,, u
15.0°
Financial
4.9%
6.0%
Other Services
10.6%
10.0%
Information
1 10.2%1
0.0%
This is the best and most recent data available for regional industry growth projections over the
mid-term (10 years). This economic element assumes that the rates will remain constant through
2039
i. Site Requirements Analysis
Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. The Economic Element and Buildable Land
Inventory essentially breaks the City's employment land inventory by employment category.
Within these general development pattern types, the Economic Element analyzes demand and
supply of large, medium and small sites. In practice, there are no discrete size breaks that
differentiate between large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze different sizes
because the site requirements do vary with firm size. Figure 28 describes the qualitative site
requircmcnts for each of the general development pattern.
206 The data in the middle column is from the Gail Kiles Krumenauer, Senior Economic Analyst at the Oregon
Employment Department, Oregon Employment Industry Projections 2017-2027 (June 26, 2018), available at:
www.qtiality.info.or-gLdocuments/10 1821922031Ore on+Industry Empl4Yment+Projections3 201?-2027?version=l.7
(Excel Warning). The data in the right column is from Guy Tauer, Regional Economist at the Oregon Employment
Department, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections 2017-2027, available at:
www. unlit inf.or documen 10182f922031Ro ue+Vall -Indust +Ern 10 meut+Pro'ections+2017-
2027?version=1.5 (Excel Warning).
Page 50
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Type
Fi ure 28: General Development
SerAtice
Pattern Site
Transportation
Requirements:
R uirements
Size
Tvpical
Discussion
Requirements
!kcccss to) ctistomer,,
Site
Large/
of'Site Requirements hN Si/v Catoroo-N
Large commercial sites tend to cluster within larger blocks
Retail commercial
8-30
of commercial that can be 100 acres or more. Outdoor
uses typically
Retail commercial
storage sales can demand very large sites. These users will
require all urban
development requires
anchor commercial areas and attract customers for medium
facilities and
premium access and
and small users. Must be located adjacent to and visible
E
services such as
excellent visibility for
from major arterials and state highways.
Med./
Medium commercial uses can locate within larger blocks of
E
water, sewer, storm
.
U
drainage, police and
Foot traffic and access
2-7
commercial or may function as a stand-alone community
fire protection,Cd
to public
commercial use. Must be located adjacent to and visible
electricity, natural
transportation can also
from major arterials and collectors if not stat hi hwa s
gas, and modem
be important.
Small/
communications
0.5-2
Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by
systemsmedium
and large retail commercial. These tend to be
s ecial sales that serve niche retail markets.
Office uses typically
Consumer driven
urge.
urge o tee uses wt regture excellent access to the
require all urban
Of iCe UNCTS like
3.5.12
regional transportation network because they have large
facilities and
branch banks &
workforces that require capacity in the system. large office
services such as
insurance sales must
uses can locate in commercial or industrial areas depending
have good ►risibility
on the specific nuimuents of the cute rise.
4w"
water. sewer. storm
drainage. police and
and access. 0111cr
Med.;
Medium office uses that require customer significant access
tion,
Fire protection,
protec
office uses only need
1-3.5
will seek out and compere for commercial zoned space.
electricity natural
reasonably direct
Other medium office uscs may demand business park space
gas, and modem
access to the rcgiottal
intermixed with light industrial uses.
Small/
Small office uses are the uses that "Fill in" commercial and
transportation
communications
network. Airport
0.25-1
industrial areas because their needs are the most varied and
ace - l
iblr
Large/
Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on
Industrial uses may
Access for freight is a
15-300
regional, national or internal scales. Factors that affect
or may not require
top priority and may
demand depends on the very specific requirements of the
all urban services.
be via truck and/or
enterprise that are difficult to predict a priori.
However, many
rail. Industrial uses
sometimes accept
Med/
Medium industrial uses tend to be price sensitive and seek
�
industrial uses will
more remote locations
3-14
out space within business or office parks. They sometimes
a
have very specific
to avoid congestion
require roe ownership that will also result in low real
q property rtY P
and large demands
and that support
estate overhead in relation to the enterprise.
for certain services
freight movements.
Small/
Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is
like power or
Airport access is often
0.5-2.5
a priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight
P Y• g !�
sewage capacity
important.
movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites
themselves.
ii. Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements
In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the site requirements specific to
Central Point's target industries warrant more detailed consideration.
Page 51
97
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Specialty Food Products Manufacturing
The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in specialty food product manufacturing in
Central Point have small retail storefronts that accompany their manufacturing businesses. The
sites are generally small and there is limited room to expand operations on the existing sites. The
segment of Highway 99 where these uses are located have good access to I-5. From there they
have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99. However, the narrow strip between Highway
99 and the railroad tracks creates a practical/physical limit on fixture expansion. Central Point
should keep lines of communication open with these businesses to assure that the site
requirements for any expansion are well understood by staff and policy makers.
Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Services
These businesses require both office space and trucking facilities that are often co -located. Site
requirements may also include space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver
accommodations and inter -modal freight handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is
typically required. Adequate expansion area is often a factor when selecting a site so that
expansion can be accommodated without the need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate
freeway is essential and must be located in areas that are relatively free from congestion to
enable efficient freight movements. Aside from transportation facilities, power, and modern
communications, some transportation uses may not necessarily require the full complement of
other urban facilities and services.
Retail Trade
Convenient access to I-5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements from 1-5 in Central
Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and may raise site
requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street arterial is good and
access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts regional
shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and medium retailers cannot he met. The
anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and medium
retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor.
As the City's residential neighborhoods expand to the west and north there is a need for
additional retail, and office, development to serve the particular commercial needs, both
commercial and office, of the surrounding neighborhoods. The design and size of these
commercial centers need to be based on the ultimate long-term density and area of the
neighborhood and designed to complement the neighborhood's residential character. The
location and design of these commercial centers need to support and encourage pedestrian access
from the serving neighborhood. For land use planning purposes these centers are referred to as
Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
Long -Term Land Demand Estimate
Page 52
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
This section calculates Central Point's land demand estimate for the next 20 years. Figure 21
above provides the total number of jobs forecasted to be created in Southern Oregon through
2039. Figure 25 calculates that Central Point should capture approximately 6.64 percent of these
new jobs. Figure 26 calculates that this equals approximately 1,915 new jobs for Central Point
and allocates them by industry.
Employment land demand estimates can be projected using a variety of techniques, but this
Economic Element calculates the land needs by converting the projected population growth rates
into projected employees and then using average employee space needs and floor area ratios to
project future land needs. See Figure 32 for the estimate of employee density per acre. Then
these land needs are aggregated by the development pattern type demanded by each industry so
that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply calculations.
Each of these steps requires assumptions about expected ratios and land development
efficiencies.
iii. Estimate of Needed Employment Lands
In order to estimate the number of acres needed by 2039 for all Central Point's industries, this
section uses an employee per acre ratio. According to the DLCD's Industrial & Other
Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, there are typically 8-12 industrial sector jobs per acre,
14-20 commercial and service sector jobs per acre, 6-10 institutional and government jobs per
acre, and 6-10 other employment sector jobs per acre. 207
F ihure 29: Projected Em IA meat Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039
a
0
N
Note: Employment Gross Acres Needed calculated using Buildable Acres adjusted for right -of way (25%)
Figure 30 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how
many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD's
employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the
City. As a result, Central Point will need 47 new net acres in the aggregate by 2039.
However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial,
institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add
217 DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46.
Page 53
0
Employment
Jobs/Brdldahle .Acre
Buildable Acres
ExIst1t Buildable
Buildable Acreage
Land Use Classification Nunlher ofJobsM
Ratio fram DLM"5
Needed=a
Acrem
Surousishortage
Industrial
1,658
8
ComnnerciaVService
4,407
14
InstitutionaVGov't
892
6
Other Services & Self -
740
6
7.697.
22
Industrial
476
8
59
87
27
ContrnerciaVService
1,155
14
83
61
(21)
InstitutionaMov't
111
6
18
(18)
Other Services & Self-
Ernk� nt
207
6
34
(34)
17 -ow
1,9481
142
148
Note: Employment Gross Acres Needed calculated using Buildable Acres adjusted for right -of way (25%)
Figure 30 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how
many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD's
employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the
City. As a result, Central Point will need 47 new net acres in the aggregate by 2039.
However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial,
institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add
217 DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46.
Page 53
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
approximately 73 gross acres of commercial, institutional, and other land types of lands by
2039.208 See Figure 30.
Flaure 30: Gross Acres Needed`"'
Another way to estimate the land demand is to compare the above result to the conclusions
reached in other parts of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. For example, Central Point's
Economic Element 2013-2033 found that the City would need between 59 and 67 acres by
2033. See also Central Point's Land Use Element 2018-2038, which made the 1H11U ngs.
The previous Economic Element estimated that Central Point needs approximately 13 acres of
employment lands per 1,000 residents .2 10 Currently, Central Point has ay 19,101
people••• and the 2039 population is projected to be around 26,317. 2 This increase of
approximately 7,216 residents means that Central Point would need a total of 93.8 additional
acres for employment purposes in the long-term. 213 But, because there is a surplus of
approximately 23 Industrial site acres, Central Point actually needs 65 acres. 214
Conclusion In conclusion, based on Central Point's projected job capture rate, the
Comprehensive Plan's previous calculations, and the estimated ratio of residents to land use
needs, Central Point has a forecasted demand of 65 to 74 additional net acres for employment
purposes for the 2019 to 2039 planning period.
Short -Term Land Demand Estimate
By quartering the numbers from the long-term estimate, the short-term land employment use
needs can be determined. As a result, Central Point will need 18 additional net acres for the
next five years (2019-2024). See Figure 30.
Inventory of Employment Lands
After identifying economic opportunities and estimating land demand, the next step in the Goal 9
2
08 That is, (21.1714) + (18.1667) + (33.8333) _ (73.1714).
209 See Figure 29. Rounded to the nearest tenth.
210 Central Point Land Use Element 2018 at 27.
211 Id. at 9.
212 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region
47 Documents (May 2018).
213 That is, (((26,707-19,101)/1000)*13 acres)
214 That is, 93.8 acres — 28.395.
Page 54
100
Gross Employment
New Buildable Acres
Acres Needed, 2019-
Short -Term Gross Acres
Sector
Needed by 2039
2039
Needed, 2019-2024
Industrial
-
-
Commercial/Service
21
27
7
InstitutionaUGovernment
18
23
6
Other/Uncovered Employment
34
43
11
Total Employment
74
93
Another way to estimate the land demand is to compare the above result to the conclusions
reached in other parts of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. For example, Central Point's
Economic Element 2013-2033 found that the City would need between 59 and 67 acres by
2033. See also Central Point's Land Use Element 2018-2038, which made the 1H11U ngs.
The previous Economic Element estimated that Central Point needs approximately 13 acres of
employment lands per 1,000 residents .2 10 Currently, Central Point has ay 19,101
people••• and the 2039 population is projected to be around 26,317. 2 This increase of
approximately 7,216 residents means that Central Point would need a total of 93.8 additional
acres for employment purposes in the long-term. 213 But, because there is a surplus of
approximately 23 Industrial site acres, Central Point actually needs 65 acres. 214
Conclusion In conclusion, based on Central Point's projected job capture rate, the
Comprehensive Plan's previous calculations, and the estimated ratio of residents to land use
needs, Central Point has a forecasted demand of 65 to 74 additional net acres for employment
purposes for the 2019 to 2039 planning period.
Short -Term Land Demand Estimate
By quartering the numbers from the long-term estimate, the short-term land employment use
needs can be determined. As a result, Central Point will need 18 additional net acres for the
next five years (2019-2024). See Figure 30.
Inventory of Employment Lands
After identifying economic opportunities and estimating land demand, the next step in the Goal 9
2
08 That is, (21.1714) + (18.1667) + (33.8333) _ (73.1714).
209 See Figure 29. Rounded to the nearest tenth.
210 Central Point Land Use Element 2018 at 27.
211 Id. at 9.
212 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region
47 Documents (May 2018).
213 That is, (((26,707-19,101)/1000)*13 acres)
214 That is, 93.8 acres — 28.395.
Page 54
100
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
process is to evaluate the current land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which there is
a projected demand over the next twenty years. Central Point updates its general buildable lands
information on a regular basis and this information has been used as the starting point to analyze
the land base from a more specific Goal 9 perspective.
The Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 has been published by the
City of Central Point as a separate document. The above -conclusion that Central Point needs
65 to 73 additional net acres by 2039 considers the findings of the BLI, including that there is
a slight surplus of industrial lands.
i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency
The City of Central Point's current built employment land base has relatively limited
redevelopment potential. According to the BLI, the City only has 8.95 acres of total commercial
lands and 36.18 acres of industrial lands that are redevelopable.215 This configuration does not
lend itself well to redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the supply and demand
for sites over a twenty-year period because this would require the demolition and aggregation of
parcels. While this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is unlikely to be
economically viable in Central Point on a scale that would alter long-term supply and demand
projections for employment lands. This quantitative determination does not mean that there are
not good qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along
Highway 99.
There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along Table Rock Road.216 Several
parcels are zoned residential and that are large enough to be be developed for employment uses.
Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is an area where relatively
inexpensive small industrial sites are available to own and where there are limited development
requirements that add overhead. In some ways, this area is important employment land for
certain types of firms that have ever fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost-
effective. As such, aggressive redevelopment planning policies for this area may seem to be a
great aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and unintended economic consequences.
Moreover, without relatively massive financial incentives for significant redevelopment that
would change the overall quality of development in this area, lesser redevelopment policies tend
to have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development projects that would
trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties.
ii. Vacant Lands
According to the BLI, most of the City's vacant acreage consists of Medium Industrial lands, as
well as Large and Medium Retail.' 17 The City has barely any vacant acreage allocated
predominantly to office use of any kind. It also has little acreage dedicated to small retail.
However, according the analysis in this Economic Element, Central Point's economy will likely
"' Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 6, Tables 3 and 4.
216 See Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 13.
211 Id. at 7, Figure 3.
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101
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
have its strongest growth in industries that require retail and office space. As a result, the City
needs to increase its buildable lands in these categories.
Further, according to the BLI, most of the vacant number of lots are in small retail (even though
there is little total acreage),M Further, there are few vacant lots of any kind for offices, large
retail, and large industrial. 19 As a result, the City will need more parcels for offices of every size
and for large industrial and large retail.
Another consideration in the employment land demand and current employment land inventory
is the spatial relationship between existing inventory and future demand. As the City's residential
neighborhoods (UGB) expand to the west and north additional employment lands will be needed
for Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers. As would be expected the City's
current employment land inventory (planned and zoned) is not spatially appropriate for these
new expanding neighborhoods, and in terms of inventory are considered excess supply.
Consequently, there will be a need to discount some of these lands when addressing the supply
need for new Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
iii. Conclusion
A stable and diverse economy that provides access to employment opportunities for Central
Point's growing population is fundamental to providing a livable community consistcnt with the
City's vision and preferred future. Based on the analysis herein, the City will experience growth
across all employment categories and is particularly well positioned to experience growth in
specialty foods, trucking and transportation, healthcare and retail services. However, proactive
and effective strategies will be necessary to attract, retain and expand a diverse business
environment to provide for the City's employment needs as they change over time. To
accomplish this, the City recognizes the following considerations as essential to fostering an
effective economic development program in Central Point:
Collaboration, Partnership & Comgarative Advantages Must Be Leveraged. Effective
economic development actions necessary to diversify the City's economic base requires
an understanding of, and a careful balance between regional cooperation and competition.
It is important to understand and pro -actively participate in the broader national, state,
and regional economic development discussions. Participating in regional economic
development programs like Southern Oregon Regional Development, Inc. (SOREDI) and
the Rogue Valley Workforce Development Council can improve the regional economic
climate and a strong regional economy will benefit all communities within the region.
Most importantly, to be an effective participant the City must recognize its competitive
advantage within the region and compete for those economic development opportunities
within the region for which Central Point is well positioned.
2. Adequate Land Supply and Development Site Characteristics Needed to be Competitive:
The City will need to provide adequate land supply in terms of both acreage and
development site characteristics to effectively respond to business development needs.
218 Id.
219 ld.
Page 56
102
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
This need is particularly true for Neighborhood Commercial lands as the City expands its
urban growth boundary. At this time, the City does not have enough employment lands to
meet the projected economic needs over the next 20 years. Population growth and job
forecasts indicate that the City will need more lands for Office, Retail and Institutional
employment uses with a focus on development sites suitable for medium and large office
and retail uses and availability of vacant buildings for expanding small businesses (i.e.
flex -space). Over the 2019-2039 planning period, the City will need to expand the UGB
to ensure an adequate 5 -year and 20 -year supply of buildable employment land (Table
30).
Dynamic Economic Conditions Require Proactive and Responsive Management. The
economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities for which the City is well
positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic economic forces require
the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. They
also require the City to engage in sustained analysis of national, state, and local economic
conditions. Only when the City is actively monitoring its economy will it be poised to
take advantage of good opportunities and guide the community through any turbulent
times.
Furthermore, the pursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance between
short-term and long-term economic objectives. The City recognizes that some
opportunities may warrant short-term incentives to achieve longer term employment or
property tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long-term
benefit and may not warrant the short-term fiscal cost of incentives.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 7: Goals and Policies
Statewide Planning Goal 9 requires that comprehensive plans and policies contribute to a stable
and healthy economy in all regions of the state. This section sets forth the City of Central Point's
economic development goals and policies.
Goal To actively promote a strong, diversified, and sustainable local economy, that
reinforces Central Point's "small town feel"220 and family orientation while
preserving or enhancing the quality of life in the community as a place to live,
work, and play.
Because this Economic Element concludes that there will be economic
uncertainty in the short-term, it is important that Central Point work to diversify
and strengthen its economy. By continuing to analyze economic trends, Central
Point will be able to continue growing strong throughout the 2019-2039 planning
period.
Goal To create meaningful incentives to encourage and support economic
development;
Central Point has historically been a bedroom community where people live but
work elsewhere. In order to maintain a strong tax base and to ensure continued
economic prosperity, Central Point must take an active role in encouraging
economic development.
Goal 3 To encourage and promote the development, redevelopment, and enhancement of
retail and office areas to achieve a vibrant shopping, entertainment, living and
working experience in the downtown area.
This goal is important because Central Point needs a vibrant downtown in order to
ensure future economic prosperity. Further, based on the current BLI and the
projected land use needs, Central Point is going to need targeted redevelopment
strategies to encourage these types of activities in the future.
Goal 4 To encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, and
state agencies, and local businesses concerning economic development,
education, and workforce development.
The City cannot reach its goals without the assistance of others. As a result, the
City needs to be receptive to suggestions and aid from others and also needs to be
active in communicating its needs and plans.
Goal s To encourage and support growth, particularly in the targeted industries
(respecialty food manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors).
220 As defined in the Urbanization Element of the Comprehensive Plan
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
These targeted industries are where the City could make strides. It is important
that the City help maintain and grow these industries now and in the future.
Goal 6 To maintain at all times an adequate supply of suitable short-term (five-year)
employment lands.
Central Point does not have an adequate short-term supply of lands for
institutional/govemment and other employment types. As a result, the City should
plan to add to the land supply in the near future.
Goal 7 To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual
identifying and monitoring economic development strategies and programs
available to the City.
Goal 8 Create a positive environment for industrial, commercial and institutional job
growth and development by maintaining an adequate land supply; providing a
local development review process that is predictable, responsive, and efficient;
and delivering high quality public facilities and services.
Goal 9 Assure, through the UGB process, that adequate commercial lands are planned
and designated for the development of pedestrian oriented neighborhood
commercial centers to serve the City's new residential neighborhoods.
The City's economic development goals will be managed through the following policies:
Policy 1: Participation
The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming of
alternative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including education
and workforce development that are consistent with the City's economic development goals.
Policy 2: Refine Policies
The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and fiscal policies as they
relate to economic development to ensure that the City's economic development programming
can be effectively implemented.
Policy 3: Monitor Long -Term Consequences
Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can
be demonstrated that the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and
the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Policy 4: Small Businesses
The City shall pursue and encourage development of leasable employment buildings (i.e. flex -
space) to create opportunities to expand, retain and attract small businesses to Central Point's
employment districts.
Policy 5: Business Innovation
Encourage innovation, research, development, and commercialization of new technologies,
products, and services through responsive regulations and public sector approaches.
Policy 6: Tolo Area
The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, continue planning the Exit 35 area ---also
called "Area CP -1B (Tolo)"—in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic
opportunities, especially for transportation -based economic activity and truck/rail freight support
services. This area also contains the aeronautics manufacturing company Erickson Air Crane and
serves aggregate uses; these uses have many specific and unique dimensions that should be
carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations applicable to this area need to account for
the site requirements of firms in these sectors. Because the area is currently constrained as a
result of a lack of access to water, the City chmilrl hi -gin nlanning how to make water more
readily available so as to make these lands available for more economic development.
Policy 7: Monitor Regulations
The City shall periodically evaluate its regulations for employment related development,
particularly as it relates to targeted industries, as well as compatibility with adjacent non -
employment lands to ensure that regulations are consistent with applicable best practices.
Regulations found to no longer be appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable
thereafter.
Policy 8: Adequate Short -Term Supply
The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and
transportation facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of
competitive short-term buildable lands sufficient to meet employment needs within a five-year
period, particularly for the retail, specialty foods, professional, health care, and trucking sectors.
Policy 9: Prepare for Long -Term Needs
The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short-term employment lands in the medium and
large site categories equivalent to the twenty-year demand for those categories. The supply of
short-term employment land shall be reviewed and updated every four years consistent with the
Portland State University Population Research Center Coordinated Population Forecasting
schedule. When it is determined that the supply of land as measured in terms of number of sites
and/or acreage in the medium and large site categories is inadequate to serve the twenty-year
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
needs then the City shall amend its UGB to include additional short-term (5 -year) employment
lands.
Policy 10: Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
As the City's expands the UGB it will include in the land use mix adequate commercial lands to
for the development of Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers designed to compliment the
physical character and encourage neighborhood pedestrian use. Adequacy of the acreage needed
for Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers will be guided by the Regional Plan land use
allocation.
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ATTACHMENT "B"
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 6: Land Demand
Introduction This section projects the City of Central Point's short term (2019-2024) and long-
term (2019-2039) supply of land needed to satisfy employment projections.
Having reviewed economic trends on a national, state, regional, and local level, it is important to
use that information to identify economic development opportunities that are likely to expand or
locate in or near Central Point within the next twenty years. Understanding the types of sites
needed will enable the City to successfully implement its economic development objectives.
Legal Requirements Central Point must have adequate supplies of land to meet employment
needs for a range of employment opportunities. These lands must be adequate to capitalize on the
City's economic opportunities in terms of both quantity and type.
Central Point is required to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses
that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand within the city's urban growth boundary.
OAR 660-009-0015. A use or category of use will be reasonably expected to expand or locate to
Central Point if it possesses the appropriate locational factors for the use or category of use.
Economic Growth Rate Forecast
It is expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a
whole across all industries over the next twenty years and may reasonably be expectcd to cxcccd
regional growth rates in target industries. Central Point's population is projected to grow at 1.5%
through 2039, see Figure 17 supra.
However, consistent with the City's competitive positions described above there are at least three
sectors where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out-
perform the overall regional growth. Those sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking
and warehousing, and retail. It is in these three industry sectors that the State's regional forecast
is appropriately adjusted upward to reflect localized opportunities (See Figure 27).
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing
This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth
assumptions in the manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this
niche sector but may buoy a slight edge over regional growth rates. However, exceptional growth
in this sector is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in
the future materializes, then that may warrant a re-evaluation of the overall manufacturing
employment growth forecast in the Economic Element.
ii. Trucking and Warehousing
The trucking and warehousing industry is strong regionally with higher than average
employment concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much
Page 48
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
higher than regional or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents
an excellent opportunity to expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relatively high
wages. Also, this industry has potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry that
creates the potential to outpace overall regional growth to a modest degree.
Central Point is also uniquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regional
comparative advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan
contemplates that the "Tolo" area is well situated for this type of economic activity north of
Interchange 35 which already serves industrial traffic to White City and aggregate resource
traffic in the area. There is very little residential and commercial development around the
interchange. No new residential development is contemplated in the regional plan, so this area is
well positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded transportation and warehousing
uses.
However, the Tolo area is constrained because of a relative lack of water service. Any attempt to
take advantage of this area would require a large investment to increase water and provide other
necessary utilities.
iii. Retail
Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point. Retail trade and associated
employment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth is
essentially consumer growth. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that retail trade in Central Point
will outpace the two -county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average population
growth as set out in the County's coordinated population forecast for the City. From an industry
categorization versus land use perspective there are some small but important differences. Land
use terminology included within the retail category includes restaurants and bars while
restaurants are categorized in the leisure and hostility industry sectors, so growth in this sector is
appropriately consistent with the retail uses in both categorization schemes such as a boutique.
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry
Figure 27 depicts a reasonable 10 -year planned growth rate by industry for the City of Central
Point. This growth rate utilizes the state's regional forecast for all industries through 2027 and
shows how much each industry is likely to grow both statewide and in the City of Central Point.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Mffnra 77- ('antral Paint Prnirrlrrf Crawth Rate by indnStf"vM6
State % Change, Central Point %
Industry Sector 2017-2027 Change, 2017-2027
'Total Private
12.9%
12.0%
Natural Resources and Mining
11.1%
23.00
Construction
17.5%
25.0%
Manufacturing
6.7%
9.0%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
10.5%
6.0°X0
Wholesale
8.1%
3.0%
Retail
9.4%
5.0%
Transportation, Warehousinf& Utilities
17.3%
9.0%
Leisure and Hospitality
13.1%
13.0%
Professional & Business Services
17.0ONO
15.0°X0
Financial
4.9%
6.0%
Other Services
10.6%
10.0%
[Won -nation
1 10.2%1
0.0%
This is the best and most recent data available for regional industry growth projections over the
mid-term (10 years). This economic element assumes that the rates will remain constant through
,)nen
/-V.5 7.
i. Site Requirements Analysis
Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. The Economic Element and Buildable Land
Inventory essentially breaks the City's employment land inventory by employment category.
Within these general development pattern types, the Economic Element analyzes demand and
supply of large, medium and small sites. In practice, there are no discrete size breaks that
differentiate between large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze different sizes
because the site requirements do vary with firm size. Figure 28 describes the qualitative site
requirements for each of the general development pattern.
206 The data in the middle column is from the Gail Kiles Krumenauer, Senior Economic Analyst at the Oregon
Employment Department, Oregon Employment Industry Projections 2017-2027 (June 26, 2018), available at:
www.o ualitvinfo.orgldocu mentsl 10182/92203/Orey,on+Industry+E m o toyment+Pro i ections+2017-2027?version= l
(Excel Warning). The data in the right column is from Guy Tauer, Regional Economist at the Oregon Employment
Department, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections 2017-2027, available at:
www.auafltvinfb.orgJdocurnenW101 82/92203/RQauc-+vai ley+lndu stry+E mnIovment+Pro i_e_ction s+20 I 7-
2027?version=l.5 (Excel Warning).
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Fii ure 28: General Development Pattern Site Reuuirements
Public Facillit-s- and
Type Service
Fransportation
Facilitv
Requii'enients:
Size
Cat./
Typical
Site
Discussion of Site Requirements hN Size ( atcoorN
Requirements
Accesls to) customers
and %%orkforce
Size
Large/
Large commercial sites tend to cluster within larger blocks
Retail commercial
8-30
of commercial that can be 100 acres or more. Outdoor
uses typically
Retail commercial
storage sales can demand very large sites. These users will
require all urban
development requires
anchor commercial areas and attract customers for medium
v facilities and
�.
access and premium
p
and small users. Must be located adjacent to and visible
services such as
E
excellent visibility for
from major arterials and state highways.
Med./
2
Medium commercial uses can locate within larger blocks of
water, sewer, storm
�j drainage, police and
customer attraction.
fire protection,
Foot traffic and access
commercial or may function as a stand-alone community
electricity, natural
to public
commercial use. Must be located adjacent to and visible
c
gas, and modern
transportation can also
from major arterials and collectors if not stat hi hwa s
Small/
0.5-2
Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by
communications
be important.
systemsmedium
and large retail commercial. These tend to be
s2ecialty sales that serve niche retail markets.
Office uses typically
Consurner driven
Large/
Large office uses will require excellent access tp the
require all urban
office users like
3.5-12
regional transportation network b4causc they have large
Facilities and
branch banks &
workfurces char require capacity in the system. Large office
services such as
insurance sales must
its"- can locate in commercial or industrial areas depending
have good visibility
on the S ccitic requirements of the enc rise.
��"
water. sewer, storm
drainage. police and
polis
and access. Other
1+ ed./
Med iurn office uses that require customer significant access
O
fire protection.
office uses only need
1-3.5
will seek out and compete for connmercial zoned space,
natural
electricity. otecnature;
reWSOnably direct
Other medium office uses may demand business park space
gas, n
gas, and
access too the regional
intermixed with light industrial uses.
Small/
Small office uses are the uses that "rill in" commercial and
nnnmodem
comnetwork.
transportation
Airport
0.25.1
incivanal_4rs:as be�ausc dieir nzc-da:are liiz�si.k at�cl
-rb
Large/
Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on
Industrial uses may
Access for freight is a
15-300
regional, national or internal scales. Factors that affect
or may not require
top priority and may
demand depends on the very specific requirements of the
all urban services.
be via truck and/or
enterprise that are difficult to predict a priori.
However, many
rail. Industrial uses
sometimes accept
Med/
Medium industrial uses tend to be rice sensitive and seek
P
Y
industrial uses will
more remote locations
3-14
out space within business or office parks. They sometimes
S
have very specific
to avoid congestion
require roe ownership that will also result in low real
q property riY p
and large demands
and that support
estate overhead in relation to the enterprise.
for certain services
freight movements.
Small/
Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is
like power or
Airport access is often
0.5-2.5
a priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight
P Y• g �
sewage capacity
important.
movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites
themselves.
ii. Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements
In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the site requirements specific to
Central Point's target industries warrant more detailed consideration.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Specialty Food Products Manufacturing
The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in specialty food product manufacturing in
Central Point have small retail storefronts that accompany their manufacturing businesses. The
sites are generally small and there is limited room to expand operations on the existing sites. The
segment of Highway 99 where these uses are located have good access to I-5. From there they
have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99. However, the narrow strip between Highway
99 and the railroad tracks creates a practical/physical limit on future expansion. Central Point
should keep lines of communication open with these businesses to assure that the site
requirements for any expansion are well understood by staff and policy makers.
Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Services
These businesses require both office space and trucking facilities that are often co -located. Site
requirements may also include space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver
accommodations and inter -modal freight handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is
typically required. Adequate expansion area is often a factor when selecting a site so that
expansion can be accommodated without the need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate
freeway is essential and must be located in areas that are relatively free from congestion to
enable efficient freight movements. Aside from transportation facilities, power, and modern
communications, some transportation uses may not necessarily require the full complement of
other urban facilities and services.
Retail Trade
Convenient access to I-5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements from I-5 in Central
Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and may raise site
requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street arterial is good and
access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts regional
shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and inediuin retailers cannot be met. The
anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and medium
retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor.
As the City's residential neighborhoods expand to the west and north there is a need for
additional retail and office development to serve the Rarticular commercial needs both
commercial and office, of the surrounding neighborhoods. The design and size of these
commercial centers need to be based on the ultimate long-term densiV and area of the
neighborhood and designed to com lement the neighborhood's residential character. The
location and design of these commercial centers need to support and encourage pedestrian access
from the serving neighborhood. For land use planning puEposes-these centers are referred to as
Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
Long -Term Land Demand Estimate
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
This section calculates Central Point's land demand estimate for the next 20 years. Figure 21
above provides the total number of jobs forecasted to be created in Southern Oregon through
2039. Figure 25 calculates that Central Point should capture approximately 6.64 percent of these
new jobs. Figure 26 calculates that this equals approximately 1,915 new jobs for Central Point
and allocates them by industry.
Employment land demand estimates can be projected using a variety of techniques, but this
Economic Element calculates the land needs by converting the projected population growth rates
into projected employees and then using average employee space needs and floor area ratios to
project future land needs. See Figure 32 for the estimate of employee density per acre. Then
these land needs are aggregated by the development pattern type demanded by each industry so
that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply calculations.
Each of these steps requires assumptions about expected ratios and land development
efficiencies.
iii. Estimate of Needed Employment Lands
In order to estimate the number of acres needed by 2039 for all Central Point's industries, this
section uses an employee per acre ratio. According to the DLCD's Industrial & Other
Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, there are typically 8-12 industrial sector jobs per acre,
14-20 commercial and service sector jobs per acre, 6-10 institutional and government jobs per
acre, and 6-10 other employment sector jobs per acre. 207
Figure 29: Projected Enl la went Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039
f7
n
0
r
Note: FnVloyment Gross Acres Needed calculated using Buildable Acres adjusted rorright-of-way (25%)
Figure 30 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how
many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD's
employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the
City. As a result, Central Point will need 47 new net acres in the aggregate by 2039.
However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial,
institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add
707 DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46.
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113
Employment
Jobs7Buildable Acre
Buildable Acres
Existing Buildable
Buildable Acreage
Land Use Classification
Number ofJobs224
Ratio from DLCD22e
Needed226
Acre 227
SurpluslShortage
Industrial
1,658
8
Cornmercial/Service
4,407
14
Institutional/Gov't 1
892
6
Other Services & Self -
E to nt
740
6
rota!
7,697
22
Industrial
476
8
59
87
27
Conmiercial/Service
1,155
14
83
61
(21)
Institutional/Godt
111
6
18
(18)
Other Services & Self -
Employment
2071
6
34
34
Total
1,9481
1421
148
Note: FnVloyment Gross Acres Needed calculated using Buildable Acres adjusted rorright-of-way (25%)
Figure 30 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how
many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD's
employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the
City. As a result, Central Point will need 47 new net acres in the aggregate by 2039.
However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial,
institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add
707 DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
approximately 73 gross acres of commercial, institutional, and other land types of lands by
2039.208 See Figure 30.
F re 30: Gross Acres Needed`"'
Gross Employment
New Buildable Acres
Acres Needed, 2019-
Short -Term Gross Acres
Sector
Neededbr 2039
2039
Needed. 2019-2024
Industrial
-
-
CommerciaUService
21
27
7
InstitutionaUGovernment
18
23
6
Other/Uncovered Employment
34
43
11
Total EqTloyment
74
93
23
Another way to estimate the land demand is to compare the above result to the conclusions
reached in other parts of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. For example, Central Point's
Economic Element 2013-2033 found that the City would need between 59 and 67 acres by
2033. See also Central Point's Land Use Element 2018-2038, which made the same fundings.
The previous Economic Element estimated that Central Point needs approximately 13 acres of
employment lands per 1,000 residents. 210 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101
people2l' and the 2039 population is projected to be around 26,317. 2 This increase of
approximately 7,216 residents means that Central Point would need a total of 93.8 additional
acres for employment purposes in the long-term. 213 But, because there is a surplus of
approximately 23 Industrial site acres, Central Point actually needs 65 acres.214
Conclusion In conclusion, based on Central Point's projected job capture rate, the
Comprehensive Plan's previous calculations, and the estimated ratio of residents to land use
needs, Central Point has a forecasted demand of 65 to 73-74 additional net acres for
employment purposes for the 2019 to 2039 planning period.
Short -Term Land Demand Estimate
By quartering the numbers from the long-term estimate, the short-term land employment use
needs can be determined. As a result, Central Point will need 18 additional net acres for the
next five years (2019-2024). See Figure 30.
Inventory of Employment Lands
After identifying economic opportunities and estimating land demand, the next step in the Goal 9
208 That is, (21.1714) + (18.1667) + (33.8333) _ (73.1714).
209 See Figure 29. Rounded to the nearest tenth.
210 Central Point Land Use Element 2018 at 27.
211 Id. at 9.
212 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region
47 Documents (May 2018).
213 That is, (((26,707-19,101)/1000)*13 acres)
214 That is, 93.8 acres — 28.395.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
process is to evaluate the current land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which there is
a projected demand over the next twenty years. Central Point updates its general buildable lands
information on a regular basis and this information has been used as the starting point to analyze
the land base from a more specific Goal 9 perspective.
The Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 has been published by the
City of Central Point as a separate document. The above -conclusion that Central Point needs
65 to 73 additional net acres by 2039 considers the findings of the BLI, including that there is
a slight surplus of industrial lands.
i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency
The City of Central Point's current built employment land base has relatively limited
redevelopment potential. According to the BLI, the City only has 8.95 acres of total commercial
lands and 36.18 acres of industrial lands that are redevelopable.215 This configuration does not
lend itself well to redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the supply and demand
for sites over a twenty-year period because this would require the demolition and aggregation of
parcels. While this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is unlikely to be
economically viable in Central Point on a scale that would alter long-term supply and demand
projections for employment lands. This quantitative determination does not mean that there are
not good qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along
Highway 99.
There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along Table Rock Road.216 Several
parcels are zoned residential and that are large enough to be be developed for employment uses.
Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is an area where relatively
inexpensive small industrial sites are available to own and where there are limited development
requirements that add overhead. In some ways, this area is important employment land for
certain types of firms that have ever fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost-
effective. As such, aggressive redevelopment planning policies for this area may seem to be a
great aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and unintended economic consequences.
Moreover, without relatively massive financial incentives for significant redevelopment that
would change the overall quality of development in this area, lesser redevelopment policies tend
to have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development projects that would
trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties.
ii. Vacant Lands
According to the BLI, most of the Ci's vacant acreage consists of Medium Industrial lands, as
well as Large and Medium Retail. 17 The City has barely any vacant acreage allocated
predominantly to office use of any kind. It also has little acreage dedicated to small retail.
However, according the analysis in this Economic Element, Central Point's economy will likely
215 Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 6, Tables 3 and 4.
216 See Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 13.
211 Id. at 7, Figure 3.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
have its strongest growth in industries that require retail and office space. As a result, the City
needs to increase its buildable lands in these categories.
Further, according to the BLI, most of the vacant number of lots are in small retail (even though
there is little total acreage) 218 Further, there are few vacant lots of any kind for offices, large
retail, and large industrial 214 As a result, the City will need more parcels for offices of every size
and for large industrial and large retail.
Another consideration in the em la ment land demand and current employment land inventory
is the spatial relationship between existing inventory and future demand. As the City's residential
neighborhoods ([.]GB) expand to the west and north additional employment lands will be needed
for Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers. As would be expected the City's
current employment land inventory (planned and zoned) is not spatially appropriate for these
new expanding neighborhoods, and in terms of inventoa are considered excess sli l .
Consequently, there will be a need to discount some of these lands when addressing the suppl
need for new Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
iii. Conclusion
A stable and diverse economy that provides access to employment opportunities _ for Central
Point's growj!jg population is fundamental to providing a livable community consistent with the
City's vision and preferred future. Based on the analysis herein, the City will experience growtix
across all employment categories and is particularly well positioned to experience_ growth in
specialfoods trucking and tranVortation, healthcare and retail services. However, roactive
and effective strategies will be necessary to attract retain and expand a diverse business
environment to provide for the City's eMloyment needs as they change over time. To
accomplish this, the City recognizes the following considerations as essential to _fostering an
effective economic development program in Central Point:
1. Collaboration, Partnership & Comparative Advantages -Must Be Leveraged. Effective
economic development actions necessM to diversify the City's economic base rc uires
an understanding of, and a careful balance between re Tonal coo enation and com etition.
It is important to understand andpro-actively artici ate in the broader national state
and regional economic development discussions. Participating in regional economic
development programs like Southern Oregon Regional Development. Inc. SOREDI and
the Rogue Valley Workforce Development Council can improve the regional economic
climate and a strong regional economy will benefit all communities within the reg.ion.
Most importantly. to be an effective participant the City must recognize its competitive
advantaize within the region and compete for those economic development opportunities
within the region for which Central Point is well positioned.
2. Adequate Land Supply and Development Site Characteristics afo-Needed to be
Competitive: The City will need to provide adequate land supply in terms of both acrea e
and development site characteristics to effectively respond to business development
218 Id.
'19 Id.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
needs. This need is particularly true for Neighborhood Commercial lands as the City
expands its urban growth boundary. At this time, -the City does not have enough
employment lands to meet the projected economic needs over the next 20 years.
Population growth and job forecasts indicate that the City will need more lands _-for
Genuner-eiaUSefviee, ,na Other- empieyment types. The BU
alse indicates tl�a-lees ne! have o ugh large reel -parcels. --Office. Retail
and Institutional employment uses with a focus on development sites suitable for medium
and large office and retail uses and availability of vacant buildings for expanding small
businesses (i.e. flex -space). Over the 2019-2033 planning period, the City will need to
expand the UGB to ensure an ade nate 5 -year and 20 -year sgpply supplyof buildable
employment land (Table 30).
3. Dynamic Economic Conditions Require _Proactive and Responsive Management. The
economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities for which the Ci is well
positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic economic forces require
the _Qy_to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. They
also require the City to engage in sustained analysis of national, state, and local economic
conditions. Only when the City is actively monitoring its economy will it be poised to
take advantage of good Mportunities and guide the community through any turbulent
times.
Furthermore. the ❑ursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance between
short-term and long-term economic objectives. The City_ recognizes that some
opportunities may wan -ant- short-term incentives to achieve longer term em io ment or
property tax revenue objectives: while other opportunities may have a lesser longterm
benefit and may not warrant the short-term fiscal cost of incentives.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 7: Goals, r'^„^'����^„�, _and Policies
Statewi&.
and -healthy economy in all regions of the state.
This section sets forth the City of Central
Point's economic development goals and policies. The goals and pehe es in this seet a �ro
I :Ta to these adepted by4he pfeN,ieu`. E...,,,.,,, ie Elea en4 (20 9-)-
Goal To actively promote a strong, diversified, and sustainable local economy, that
reinforces Central Point's "small town feel"220 and family orientation while
preserving or enhancing the quality of life in the community as a place to live,
work, and play.
Because this Economic Element concludes that there will be economic
uncertainty in the short-term, it is important that Central Point work to diversify
and strengthen its economy. By continuing to analyze economic trends, Central
Point will be able to continue growing strong throughout the 2019-2039 planning
period.
Goal To create meaningful incentives to encourage and support economic
development;
Central Point has historically been a bedroom community where people live but
work elsewhere. In order to maintain a strong tax base and to ensure continued
economic prosperity, Central Point must take an active role in encouraging
economic development.
Goal To encourage and promote the development, redevelopment, and or -enhancement
of retail and office areas to achieve a vibrant shopping, entertainment, living and
working experience in the downtown area.
This goal is important because Central Point needs a vibrant downtown in order to
ensure future economic prosperity. Further, based on the current BLI and the
projected land use needs, Central Point is going to need targeted redevelopment
strategies to encourage these types of activities in the future.
220 As defined in the Urbanization Element of the Comprehensive Plan
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Goal 4 To encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, and
state agencies, and local businesses concerning economic development,
education, and workforce development.
The City cannot reach its goals without the assistance of others. As a result, the
City needs to be receptive to suggestions and aid from others and also needs to be
active in communicating its needs and plans.
Goals To encourage and support growth, particularly in the targeted industries
(respecialty food manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors).
These targeted industries are where the City could make strides. It is important
that the City help maintain and grow these industries now and in the fixture.
Goal To maintain at all times an adequate supply of suitable short-term (five-year)
employment lands.
UsinE Eltei-f-B.—M-tion eelleeted in *'�'—Central Point does not have an
adequate short-term supply of lands for institutional/government and other
employment types. As a result, the City should plan to add to the land supply in
the near fixture.
Goal 7 To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual
identifying and monitoring economic development strategies and programs
available to the City.
Goal S Create a positive environment for industrial, commercial and institutional job
growth and development by maintaining an adequate land suppl providing a
local development review process that is predictable, responsive, and efficient
and -delivering high qualitypubl is facilities and services.
Goal 9 Assurethroe h the UGB process,that adequate commercial lands are la�nned
and designated for the deuelopmerrt of pedestrian oriented neighborhood
commercial centers to serve the City's new residential neighborhoods.
. i.e.i th
we — d�
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
benefit and may 13
the S tem fisGaal-OOst of ifteeft�es.—
The City's economic development goals will be managed through the following policies:
Policy 1: Participation
The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming of
alternative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including education
and workforce development that are consistent with the City's economic development goals_
Policy 23: Refine Policies
The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and fiscal policies as they
relate to economic development to ensure that the City's economic development programming
can be effectively implemented.
I Policy 33: Monitor Long -Term Consequences
Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can
be demonstrated that the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and
the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
g�-'a'54Aesis of b
findings made thamoughnut this 0—„ rC}Se
identifies the ap'p'Fp pr-iR'+
p—ee®'nomi'B
Policy 44: Small Businesses
The City shall pursue and encourage development of leasable em,_ployment buildings (i.e. flex -
s ace) to create o ortunities to expand, retain and attract small businesses to Central Point's
employment districts.
Policy 5: Business Innovation
Encourage innovation research development, and commercialization of new technologies,
products, and services through responsive regulations and public sector Approaches.
Central Point eoneludes that the City has e*pedeneed the loss of eettage indus” a"
e*pandiEw ---I' businesses due to a lael...F_v nnn..t •1�e,� buildings
acorn-rorTu�rcru.�.�: iP
ffie"- see same
de..:.. ed W.. 'Ode the 9e..ihii:c.. ...�s�aea i a
��?
,.c. „c.. ea ..r. ^ ,.!:ell 1l.- ..is. ,�:�., ..�' ..,t, air.. eta :x..ta �t..,.—rOJM. A �ee
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Policy PPliey 5: Tolo Area
The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, continue planning the Exit 35 area—also
called "Area CP -1B (Tolo)"—in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic
opportunities, especially for transportation -based economic activity and truck/rail freight support
services. This area also contains the aeronautics manufacturing company Erickson Air Crane and
serves aggregate uses; these uses have many specific and unique dimensions that should be
carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations applicable to this area need to account for
the site requirements of firms in these sectors. Because the area is currently constrained as a
result of a lack of access to water, the City should begin planning how to make water more
readily available so as to make these lands available for more economic development.
Policy 457: Monitor Regulations
The City shall periodically evaluate its regulations for employment related development,
particularly as it relates to targeted industries, as well as compatibility with adjacent non -
employment lands to ensure that regulations are consistent with applicable best practices.
Regulations found to no longer be appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable
thereafter.
wlopfflew
City's land supplies and employment laiif4 &Nelapfnent s e
as fallews�
, er W + l ,d The Cit :11 n ad to expand the UG to ensure an 7 .,,,ate > year and 20
supply of buildable pla .-.+ 1-1
The QF !-'.,. elu ter- that :tn Stifig Supply C
a�� t.V lii..-L4TCCC..TC'i
i{yyua and --LllCCall e ils slwuld be Enade to ensure [aIL. "0Pyhas
Point ki 7 . +l ..r •1..., b 11 13�siit�se5
is in 9118f4 supply and that an 0 &!# qh -41d -be made to enee tir-age its developmen"o expand the
eity7 "flex "
Gentm! Point c-encludes that urban lite -ii -ties it -d sefyiees afe e
lti-nIG"CC�P'iZtC�7Y
emplayment �t�r�. GittJ-Goal 11 UO-NliG'aitiesz andCefy��ivz�.,.and! l 12
� .+i+a . slv�-mzc�3[�[�s—is
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
:Fhe City's Eqnple-j—Wat Land Supply Goal
Policy 78: Adequate Short -Term Supply
The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and
transportation facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of
competitive short-term buildable lands sufficient to meet employment needs within a five-year
period, particularly for the retail, specialty foods, professional, health care, and trucking sectors.
Policy 89: Prepare for Long -Term Needs
The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short-term employment lands in the medium and
large site categories equivalent to the twenty-year demand for those categories. The supply of
short-term employment land shall be reviewed and updated annnRllyevs✓r four cars colLSistellt
with the Portland State University Population Research Center Coordinated Population
Forecasting schedule. When it is determined that the supply of land as measured in terms of
number of sites and/or acreage in the medium and large site categories is inadequate to serve the
twenty-year needs then the City shall amend its UGB to include additional short-term (5 -year)
employment lands.
Policy 10: Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
As the City's exRands the UGB it will include in the land use mix adequate commercial lands to
for the develo went of Pedestrian Oricated Conuiiercial Centers designed to compliment. the
physical character and encourage neighborhood pedestrian use. Adequacy of the acreage needed
for Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers will be guided by the Regional Plan land use
allocation.
FV. mall-Basmevies
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