HomeMy WebLinkAboutOrdinances 2059AN ORDINANCE UPDATING AND ADOPTING THE CENTRAL POINT COMPREHENSIVE
PLAN ECONOMIC ELEMENT
Recitals
A. The City of Central Point (City) is authorized under Oregon Revised Statute (ORS)
Chapter 197 to prepare, adopt and revise comprehensive plans and implementing
ordinances consistent with the Statewide Land Use Planning Goals.
B. The City has coordinated its planning efforts with the State in accordance with ORS
197.040(2)(e) and OAR 660-030-0060 to assure compliance with goals and
compatibility with City and County Comprehensive Plans.
C. Pursuant to authority granted by the City Charter and the ORS, the City has
determined to update its Economic Element which was originally adopted in 1980
and revised in 1983.
D. Pursuant to the requirements set forth in CPMC Chapter 17.10.100 Amendments -
Purpose and Chapter 17.96.010, Procedure, the City has initiated the amendments
and conducted the following duly advertised public hearings to consider the
proposed amendments:
a) Planning Commission hearing on June
b) City Council hearing on June 27,2019.
ORDINANCE NO.
2019; and,
THE PEOPLE OF THE CITY OF CENTRAL POINT DO ORDAIN AS FOLLOWS
Section 1. Based upon all the information received, the City Council adopts the Staff
Reports and evidence which are incorporated herein by reference; determines that changes
community conditions, needs and desires justify the amendments and hereby adopts the
changes entirely,
Section 2. The City Comprehensive Plan Economic Element is hereby updated and
adopted as set fodh in Exhibit A -Comprehensive Plan Economic Element, 2019 which is
attached hereto and by this reference incorporated herein.
Section 5. The City Manager is directed to conduct post acknowledgement procedures
defined in ORS 197.610 et seq. upon adoption of the Economic Element.
Passed by the Council and signed by me in authentication of its passage this 11th day of
July, 2019
Mayor Hank Williams
A
Recorder
Page I of 1
ECONOMIC ELEMENT
2019-2039
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan
Prepared by
Huycke O'Connor Jarvis, LLP
823 Alder Creek Drive
Medford, OR 97504
June 2019
DRAFT
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Preface
Legal Requirements: Oregon law requires local municipalities to adopt an Economic Element asa parl of their Comprehensive Plans. OAR 660-009-0015. These Economic Elements help toimplement Oregon Statewide Planning Goal #9, which is "to provide adequate opportunìties
throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, weìfare, and
prosperity of Oregon's citizens." That is, Goal #9 encourages local governments, like CentralPoint, to achieve their economic development planning goals so as to benefit the state's
residents.
Framework: Oregon Administrative Rules, Chapter 660, Division 9 calls for a four-step
approach to economic development planning:
Review national, state, regional, county, and local economic trends
Identify the types and number of sites needed to accommodate growth
Inventory the industrial lands, emplo¡rment lands, and vacant lands
Assess the community's potential for economic development
This Economic Element follows these steps: Section I reviews Central Point's economic history,
Section 2 analyzes national economic trends, Section 3 reviews economic data concerning the
State of Oregon, Section 4 reviews both Southern Oregon and Central Point's economy, Seótion
5 contains a Population and Employnent Forecast, Section 6 analyzes land demand for Central
Point in both the short-term (5 years) and long-term (20 years), and Section 7 outlines the City's
economic goals and policies that will guide the City of Central Point through the twenty-yãar
planning period (2019 -2039).
This document will help guide the City of Central Point's future growth and development,
correct problems, maximize potentials, and act as a guide for decision-making. For i more
complete analysis of Central Point's planning needs, see the Comprehensive Plan (updated 1983)
and the corresponding Population, Housing, and Land (Jse Elements, as well as the Central point
E mp I oym en t B ui I dab I e L an ds Inv en t o ry Q0 I 9 -203 Ð.1
This document should be read along with the Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (2019)
and any subsequent inventory updates.
1 see generally city of central Point, The comprehensive pran(updated l9g3).
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City of Central Point
Table of Contents
Preface
Table of Contents.................
List of Figures:..............
Introduction..............
Summary..
Section 1: Central Point's Economic History.
Section 2 National Economic Trends
Measuring the National Economy
Gross Domestic Product..
iii. Inflation..
National Economic Crosscurrents : ...........i. Trade Wars......ii. Income Inequality
iii. Cost of Health Care ........iv. Cost of Education
Section 3 State Economic Trends .........
Neighboring States.............
Measuring the State Economy..
Gross Domestic Product
Employment
Industry Strengths....
State Economic Crosscurrents:
i. TheNationalEconomy..............
Trade Wars...........
Housing Affordability.................
Wildfires and Smoke
Section 4: Economic Trends in Southem Oregon ......
Gross Domestic Productii. Employrnent........iii. Housing....
Section 5: The City of Central Point's Trends.......
Measuring the City's Trends
viii. Central Point's Projected Job Growth
Section6: LandDemand............
Economic Growth Rate Forecast...........
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
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iv.
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Commuting Patterns ......
Local Population Forecast
Regional Employment Forecast..
Regional Competitiveness
Economic Development Context
Competitive Position Summary..
Assessment of Central Point's Economic Development Potential .........
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City of Central Point
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Long-Term Land Demand Estimate ....................
iii. Estimate of Needed Employment Lands
Short-Term Land Demand Estimate ....................
Inventory of Employment Landsi. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiencyii. Vacant Lands
iii. Conclusion
Section 7: Goals and Policies..
Policy 1 : Participation..........
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Trucking and Warehousing.......
Retail....
Projected Growth Forecast by Industry
Site Requirements Analysis...
Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements.........
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Policy 3
Policy 4
Policy 5
Policy 6
Policy 7
Policy 8
Policy 9
Policy 2: Refine Policies.....
Monitor Long-Term Consequences............
Small Businesses
Business Innovation
Tolo Area...
Monitor Regulations................
Adequate Short-Term Supply......
Prepare for Long-Term Needs
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
List of Figures:
Figure l: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP ........
Figure 2: National Unemployrnent Rate Since 1950..........
Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006.........
Figure 4:1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
Figure 5:2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
Figure 6: U.S. Health-Care Spending as a Share of GDP
Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017 .........
Figure 8: Short-Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon.......
Figure 9 : Oregon's Unemployment Rate..........
Figure l0: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 2016.....
Figure I 1: Changes to Jackson County's GDP.........
Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County's GDP ...
Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployrnent Rate
Figure I 4 : Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns.................
Figure 15: Jackson County-Total Population by Five-year Intervals (I975-2017)..........
Figure 16: Population Growth Projections for City of Central Point and Jackson County.
Figure 17: Central Point Population Pyramid....
Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change,2017-2027 ....
Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employrnent Change, 2017-2027 ..38
Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast,2017-2027.......................
Figure 2l: Employment Growth Forecast
Figure 22: Jackson County Shift-Share Analysis 2010-2017
Figure 23: Central Point's Qualitative Trends......
Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential.........45
Figure 25: Central Point's population growth rate 47
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Figure 26: Central Point's 2}-year job forecast by industry
Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry....
Figure 28: General Development Pattern Site Requirements........
Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039 ......
Figure 30: Gross Acres Needed
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
CENTRAL
POINT
Introduction
Purpose: The purpose of this Economic Element is to determine the City of Central Point's
economic goals, policies, and land use needs. It identifies economic development opportunities
and corresponding employment land needs for the next 20 yearc (20L9-2039).It also provides a
realistic analysis of current economic trends and potential disruptions. Through this, Central
Point will be better able to reduce costs and delays, anticipate obstacles, and keep planning
activities aligned with the City's policies.
Past Elements: The City of Central Point f,rrst began developing its Comprehensive Planin 1973.2 In 1980, the Rogue Valley Council of Govèrnments prepared the City of Central
Point's first Economic Element.3 That document was subseq"".rtty succeeded in 2013 by a
version prepared by CSA Associates.o This Economic Elemenfof 2til8 supersedes the previãus
versions and becomes part of Central Point's Comprehensive Plan. It establishes the framework
for future economic growth and development and gives a long-range evaluation of the City's
changing characteristics and needs.
Geographic Scope: This Economic Element is limited in scope to developments within the
Central Point city limits and the Urban Growth Boundary. Central Point is located near the
geographic center of Jackso-n County in southwestern Oregon, approximately midway between
Portland and San Francisco.' The City has the advantage of being located directly on Interstate 5
(I-5), Highway 99 (U.S. Route 99), the Central Oregon Pacific Railway, and adjacent to the
Rogue Valley International Airport. Immediately to the south of Central Point is the City of
Medford, which is the seat of Jackson County and the largest city in Southern Oregon. This
provides Central Point residents with easy access to major shopping centers, employment, and
governmental activities.
t Id. atPreface l.
3 City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 at 5 (2013).a See id.
5 City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan, Part IV, Plan Summary 3 (updated 1983).
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City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
Summary
This Economic Element includes an economic history of Central Point, it analyzes current
national, state, and regional economic trends, includes an employnent forecast, and ân inventory
of lands used for employment. The final section outlines the City's economic goals and policies
that will guide the city through the twenty-year planning period (2019-2039).
The national economy is doing well, with GDP at a very healthy rate, unemployment down, andinflation moderate. However, leading economists are wamingthat the U.S. economy will slow
and may even slide into a recession around the year 2020. Further, the economic health of thecountry is increasingly threatened by the possibility of trade wars, growing income inequality,
and the costs of health care and education. As a result, the City of Central Point must t. prèpar.áfor economic fluctuations in both the short- and long-term, which could seriously impaci its land
use planning forecasts.
The state economy is "hitting the sweet spot" and doing well compared to other states. GDp isrising, employment has recovered from the Great Recession, and it has growing industries.
However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the state economy is at riskfrom the U.S. economy's volatility, retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, a prolonged
affordable housing crisis, as well as the impact of forest fires and smoke. While the econJmy
may remain strong, the City should brace itself for a slowdown like the 1990s recession.
The Southern Oregon region is doing even better than the state economy. Although the region
was hit hard by the Great Recession, and recovery has been difficult, the GDp is growing fÃter
than the national rcte and USA Today has ranked both Jackson and Josephine couniies as ihe 28thand 18'h best local economies in the nation respectively. Nevertheless, the area still has high
unemployment rates and is suffering from a lack of affordable housing for middle class workers.
Central Point has a high population growth rate and is expected to grow to approxim ately 26,000
people by 2039. This means that Central Point will surpass the City of Ashlând's population and
capture almost 7 percent of the new jobs in the region over the next 20 years. Thè gains will be
concentrated in service, health care, construction, professional, and, the business industries. Its
target industries include specialty foods, trucking and warehousing, and retail. According to thepopulation and job capture rate, Central Point will need approximately 13 acres of newemployment lands in the next 5 years and anywhere from 65 to 73 new acres by 2039.
Ultimately, future economic conditions cannot be accurately predicted. However, strategicallyplanning the City of Central Point's land base for the long-ierm has the potential to benefiteconomic development in the City and the surrounding arca. This inciudes preparing to
accommodate future needs and integrating the City's land use planning efforts within a broãder
economic development strategy.
Central Point's last Economic Element was created in2013. Because it relied on data from the2010 census, and because there will be little new data before the 2020 census, much of this
Economic Element is similar or identical to that of the last element. Furthermore, many of the
conclusions in that element remain valid and are adopted.
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
section 1: central Point's Economic History.
Central Point's economic history has centered on trade, resource-based industries such as forestproducts and agriculture, and minor retail for its residential areas.
Incorporated by the State Legislature in 1889, Central Point was so named because of its locationat the center of the inhabited parts of the Rogue Valley.6 Before then, Jacksonville had served asthe region's economic center. However, when the railroad was built, Jacksonville was bypassed,
and the tracks were built through what is now central point.
Central Point's railroad station was the closest point to reach Crater Lake from the South. All thecounty roads leading from Ashland, Jacksonville, and Medford passed through Central point,
making it a prime area for shipping and trading.T
Central Point is located near some of Jackson County's most fertile soils and was well located toserve the surrounding farmers. Indeed, this remained the foundation of the City's economy wellI Point's location allowed it to act as a trading location for the farmingfor schools, and as a well-placed area for shops and services. The cit!
op's grain elevator and various farm repair shops and equipment retail.
Between the 1960s and 1970s, the City of Central Point rapidly expanded its residentialdevelopment. Because there was no corresponding develop-"ni of .o--".cial and industrialindustries, Central Point became a residential community largely inhabited by people whocommuted to nearby cities for work. During this period the forest products industry grew, andresidents of Central Point were able to find employment at the mills in Medford ana Wn-ite iity.
In 1980' the City of Central Point adopted its first Economic Element that has herewith beenreplaced by this Economic Element. The U.S. economy has undergone several economic cyclessince then. The 1980 Economic Element sought to divêrsify the City's economy and reducê thedegree of imbalance between employment and housing wiihin the City. Central point has beensuccessful to some extent over the last thirty years in its efforts to diversify its economy. TheCity has experienced retail and industrial growth in and around pxit j¡ on Interstate 5.Providence Hospital recently added a medical facility on Highway 99 south of pine Street. Asmall specialty foods cluster has developed along Highway 99 nortir of Pine Street that includesRogue es and a wine tasting room. The Rogue ValleyCounci building near downtown Central Point. A newCostco ck Road in 2017 . Further, ne\ryer retail exists nearfreeway interchanges and along Pine Street and Highway 99. These employers and others haveserved (and an overarching objective of this Economic Element is) to cóntinue to add morebalance and diversity to the City,s employment base.
6, De.mocratic Times, Jacksonville, page 1 (July l g, l ggg)
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 2: National Economic Trends
Purpose It is important to review current trends in the U.S. economy. The national
economy provides the necessary context for the adoption of updated economic developmentpolicies and strategies in the City's Comprehensive Plan. By engaging with governmental
projections and economic forecasts, the City will be better able to position itself for long-term
success. This review of national trends will help inform the Economic element by providing a
foundation to describe the city's economic advantages and disadvantages.
National Economic Trends The U.S. economy is booming. However, "potential danger lurks
around the corner."8 Over the last decade, the national econãmy has largeìy recovered from the
Great Recession: unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate,
people appear conf,rdent in the economy,^ and the International Monetary Fund has projected a
short-term growth ofjust under 3 percent.e
However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis warns that there are signs of a potential
economic slowdown around 2020. Economic crosscurrents threaten economic stability, including
the potential for global trade wars, increasing costs of health care, and the increasing burdens o?higher education on younger generations. This indicates the likelihood of strong short-term
growth for the United States but relative weakness in the medium and long term.l0 While therewill likely. þ" u downturn in the economy, it will probably be less severe than the Great
Recession.ll Because there is no obvious asset or inveitment bubble today (unlike the subprime
mortgages of 2008), if a recession occurs it will probably be similar to the recession of 1990.t2
Meøsuring the National Economy
There are many ways to analyze the national economy, such as the GDP, unemployment rate,
and inflation rates. Each of these helps to describe how well the economy is doing and may
indicate how healthy the economy will be in the future.
i. Gross Domestic Product
Wat is Gross Domestic Product? Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") is a measurement of how
many goods and services the United States produces.l3 Because it measures production, it is one
of the primary indicators used by economists to determine the health of the economy.to The ideal
8 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 201S).e Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The LlS economy looks ìgood'¡or íne 'next couple of years at least',
CNBC (Oct.9,2018), available at:
erowth- for-couple-vears.html.- Id- ^r 6.
I I Josh Lehner, Hammer Don't Hurt 'Em, OregonOffice of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26,2lll),available at:
't Harriet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5oÁ Rate in Third Quarter,Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct.26,
2018), available ala Leslie Klamer, eb. 5,201g),
available at:
Page 9
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
GDP growth rate is between 2-3 percent.l5 If GDP grows too slowly it could indicate some
economic unhealthiness; if it grows too fast it could mean that there is an asset bubble and that
the economy is overheating.
Past Trends Since Central Point published its first economic element in 1980, the national
GDP has had its ups and downs. The Recession of the early 1980s was followed by an economic
boom that lasted until 1990. The short Recession of 1990 was followed by a decade of economic
prosperity. Although there was a modest downturn in 2000-2001, that was replaced with
continuing economic expansion through 2006. Then came the Great Recession, the worst period
since 'World War II from a GDP perspective. In f,rve out of six quarters from the end of 2007 to
the beginning of 2009 the GDP actually went negative. After a decade of recovery, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics anticipates that the economy will fully recover by 2020.16
Recent Growth Currently, the U.S. GDP is increasing at a good rate. See Figure 1.
Although there has not been explosive growth,tT the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has
charactenzed the US economy as "entering into its boom phase of the business cycle."l8
The last two quarters mark the strongest back-to-back quarters of U.S. economic growth since
2014.1e According to the Department of Commerce, the national GDP grew at a rate of 3.5
18.20 While this was stronger than expecteã, this was down from
vious quarter.2l Economists have explained that this was due to
drop in unemployment,23 and the results of the recent tax cuts,
including business investment, the restocking of inventories,24 and excessive borrowing by the
Federal Government.2s
15 Kimberly Amadeo, llhqt is the ldeal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance
(Oct. 5, 2018), available at:
t6 Id.
't Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone,CNN Business (May l, 2018) available at:
Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018).
William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak, CFO Magazine (October 26,2018), available at:t9
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018
(advance estimate)2r Fred Imbert, The US economy grew at a 3.5%o pace in the third quarter, faster than expected, CNBC (Oct.26,
(Oct.26,2018).
2018),available at: www. cnb c.corn/ 20
22 Td
" ll/iuttBgan, The (IS Economy Just Hit a Milestone.2a Sarah Foster, Vfhat Economists Are Saying Ahead of Third-Quarter (J.5. GDP Data,Bloomberg (Oct.25,2018),
available at:
s-gdp-data.tt MattBgan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone.
Page l0
City of Central Point
Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP
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Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
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Short-Term Projections The U.S. GDP is currently on a "hot streak"26 and will probably
maintain 2.5-3 percent growth through 2019. However, it is difficult to predict future growth
beyond that. In fact, forecasts by growth are conflicted. While
some predict multiple years of 3 Monetary Fund has projected
a short-term growth of under 3 p 2019.28 The Federal Reserve
has a similar opinion, projecting that the GDP rate will decrease to 2.5o/o in 2019, 2o/o in 2020,
and 1.8%o in 202L2e This, coupled with the threat of a major trade war with China, have led to
fears of an economic slowdown sometime around 2020. In fact, Moody's Anal¡ics chief
economist Mark Zandi has said, "By mid-2020, we will be most vulnerable to the next
recession."3o
Long-Term Projections It is even more difficult to project how the national GDP will fare
over the next two decades. Josh Lehner of the Oregon Off,rce of Economic Analysis has said,
"trying to forecast a period of prolonged weakness, or even a possible recession two years in
advanceisafool'serrand....There'sjusttoomuchtime,toomanypotentialvariables...to
alter the course that far in the future."31
Here, there are too many variables that can change. However, some things will occur with near-
certainty. First, over the next two decades the economy will evolve. Some industries will
diminish, some will expand, while still others will be created. Second, there will be some good
years and some not-so good years. That is, things will not always be as good as they are now.
Third, on average, there will probably be more years of healthy GDP growth than not.
'u lvilliam Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak.21^Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy lool<s 'good' for the 'next couple of years at leqst.'t8 Id.
2e Ha"riet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5o,,ó Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct.26,
20 l 8),
30 Matt3'Josh
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Conclusion Central Point must accept the reality of long-term GDP fluctuations when
engaging in planning and decision-making. City leaders should not adopt the view that because
things are good now that they will always be good. lnstead, Central Point should have long-term
plans that accept the fundamentals of the free market.
ii. Employment
Wat is Unemployment? Unemplo¡rrnent measures how many people in the country do not
have jobs. Unemployment occurs when a person who is actively searching for a job is unable to
find work.32 Like GDP, it is one of the main indicators of an economyk health. Of particular
importance to economists is the "unemployment Íate," which is calculated by taking the numberof unemployed people and dividing by the number of people employed.í' Unlike GDP, the
unemployrnent rate usually rises or falls after changing economic conditions, rather than
anticipating an economic event.3a Even a healthy economy will have a certainnumber of people
unemployed: some will be between jobs and others will have been displaced by an evolving
economy.
Past Trends The United States has never had zero percent unemployment. The lowest rate ever
recorded was 2.5 percent in mid-1953. It occurred because "the economy overheated during the
Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the recession of 1953."35 Since Central point
published its first Economic Element, the U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated in line with the
economic booms and busts. The highest rates were 10.8 percent in 1982 and 10 percent at the
height of the Great Recession in December 2009.In turn, the lowest rates were 3.8 percent in
April 2000, and 4.4 percent in2006 and2007.
Recent Trends Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7 percent, the lowest
in nearly half a century.'o Figure 2 depicts the rapid increase in unemployment during the Great
Recession and the slow recovery over the last decade. Unemployment has been declining and has
finally fallen below pre-Recession levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics assumes that the
economy will fully recover from the Great Recession by 2020 and that the labor force will return
to a full unemployrnent rate of 4 to 5 percent.3T
32 What is Unemployment,Investopedia, available at:
yww.investopedia ent.asp#ixzz5VjpvduoO.tt [d.
3a_ What is Unemployment Rate,Investopedia, available at
" Kimberly Amadeo, Natural Rate of Unemployment, Its
ce (Sept. 26,2018).
Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance
(Oct. 5, 2018), avallable at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-gdp-growth-rate-3306017.
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City of Central Point
Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950
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Figure 3 depicts the strong relationship between unemployment and educational attainment.
Those without a high school diploma have experienced unemployment rates that are almost
double that of individuals with a college education. However, the rate of unemployment has been
declining at a much faster pace over the last several years for those without a high school
diploma than those with a college education. Overall, unemployment levels are good when
measured on a national scale.
Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006
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Short-Term Projections The current unemployment rate is unsustainable.3s Both Moody's
Analytics and Goldman Sachs's chief economists have forecasted that unemployment will
continue to decline to 3 percent by early 2020.3e However, there are conflictinglorêcasts after
that. Either the anticipated 2020 slowdown could prevent the economy from overheating and
3t Rebeccu Rainey, Happy Jobs Day!Politico (Nov. 2, 2018), available at: www.politico.com/newsletters/mornins-
'he
economy may be growing too quickly,Yahoo Finance (Nov. 5,2018),
available at: . Also see
Martin Crutsinger, Fed likely to keep rates on hold and sketch a bright outlook, AP (Nov. 5, 2018), available at:
97 7 d- 5 1 3 5 4f-l 832 a9 .html.
Page 13
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
temporarily stabilize the unemplo5rment rate or the econo^my will slow too much, potentially
destabilizing the employment rate, causing it t l increase.a0 The Federal Reserve estimates that
the normal unemployment rate (absent shocks to the economy) will rise back up to between 4-5
percent over the next five to six years.ot While it is uncleai whether unemployment will hold
steady for a while longer or if it will begin rising againas soon as 2020, it is highly probable that
unemploSrment will be going back up.
Long-Term Projections Like forecasting GDP rates decades in advance, it is also difficult
to project unemployrnent rates for the next two decades. However, it should be noted that the
average unemploynent rate for the U.S. between 1948 and 2018 was 5.77 percent, with a high of
10'8 percent and a record low of 2.5 percent. As a-result, the average unemployrnent rate will
probably stay in these bounds, close to the average.4'
Conclusion The unemployment rate is currently very low and will be going back up. A
possible slowdown or recession around 2020 could either stabilize the rate or cause it to rise
sharply. Ultimately, unemployrnent will probably stay around 3 percent for the next couple years
and average 5 percent over the next two decades.
iii. Inflation
Wat is ínflation? Inflation is the measure of how much the price of goods and services
increases over time.a3 It means that things cost more and more insteãd of staying the same price.
For example, if a gallon of milk has an inflation rate of 2 percent per year, then the price of milk
will be 2 percent higher next year. Importantly, inflation is not primarily caused by the Federal
Government printing too much money. Instead, inflation usually rises because buyers want
products so much that they are willing to pay higher prices.
If workers' wages do not keep pace with inflation, people have less buying power. The opposite
of inflation is deflation, which is when things cost less than they did before. It is important to
measure inflation because it shows if on average people are prospering or suffering under the
current economy.
Measuring Inflation There are different ways to measure inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics uses the Consumer Price Index.aa In the United States, the Federal Reserve aims
for a target annual inflation raÞ of 2 percent.as
Past trends Figure 4 shows how inflation has occurred over the last seven decades. 'When
Central Point hrst began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the United States was undergoing a
40 Id.
ar Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, l(hat is the lowest level of unemployment that the U.S.
economy can sustain? FAQs (Sept. 26,2018), available at:*'Trading Economics, United States Unemployment Rate,
states/unemDl ovment-rate.
@InflationIsas,,ViolentøsaMugger,,TheBalance(oct.30,2018),availabIeat
4s Id.
Page 14
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
period of massive inflation. Inflation was over 7 percent in the 1970s and almost 6 percent in the
1980s. Since then, inflation has dropped to the 3 percent range in the 1990s and under 2 percent
in the pre-Great Recession years. In2009, inflation averaged -0.34 percent. However, inflation
has been steadily climbing back up and, in the twelve months leading up to September 2018, the
Consumer Price Index increased 2.3 percent.
Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
fi!;þ 4 - co'uh.r prh. rndc¡ tor Àl u'u"n co'umo*: Al hôm,
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Short-Term Projectíons At the moment, inflation is relatively benign.a6 The price of food
goods is remaining steady while the cost of vehicles has fallen sharply.aT Increases in the
Consumer Price Index have been tied to increasing rental prices and the cost of home
ownership.ot Howeuer, the Federal Reserve projects gt"ut.r than 2 percent inflation over the next
couple of years. See Figure 5, which shows the recent history of the Consumer Price Index.
Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
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o6 Jeffry Bartash, [nflation rises slowly in September in latest sign of easing price pressures, CPI shows. Market
Watch (Oct. I I , 201 8), available at:
september-cpi-shows-20 I 8- I 0- I I .47 Id.
o8 Id.
Ito mÉ2ol
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æro 20ì I Ã12 20t3
Source: U.s 8ur6ou ol [ohr sldlSlca
æì0
Page 15
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Long-Term Projections Although the current inflation rate is 2.28 percent, this is well
below the 3.76 average since the end of WWII.4e As a result, in the long term, inflation will
probably be moving back up to better approach the average rate.
Conclusion In the long run, inflation will probably be increasing to better align with the
averages of the last century. Unless wages also increase to meet inflation, it will become harder
for individuals to purchase things.
National Economic Crosscuwents :
Primary Risks to the U.S. Economy The national economy appears healthy: GDP has a good
growth forecast, unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate,
and people appear confident in the economy. In addition to analyzing the traditional
measurements of economic success, it is also important to consider strategic threats to the
economy that have not yet sufficiently impacted the economic data.
There are several things that put the economy at risk in both the short and long-term: trade wars,
increasing income inequality, and the costs of health care and education.
i. Trade Wars
First among the dangers to the national economy is the simmering trade war. Although there has
been little impact so far, the possibility of escalation could severely harm the national economy.
Already, the US soy industry could be on the verge of collapse, with sales down 94 percent to
China because of the retaliatory tariffs.5O Because soybeans are usually routed through the
Pacific Northwest on their way to Asia, this could harm Oregon's economy.5t
Many other industries are also threatened, with duties on steel and aluminum costing U.S.
companies about half a billion dollars in September 2018 alone.s2 An escalation in the trade wars
(either by including more countries or a wider range of goods) would harm U.S. industries,
transportation companies, and consumers across the board.s3 It would also lead to an increase in
prices and inflation, requiring the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.
oe Jill Mislinski, A Long-Term Look at Inflation, Advisor Perspectives (Oct. 201 8), available at:
Times (Nov. 5,201g),available at: re Beans Rof' New York
5l Isis Almeida, Trump's Tariff 't(a ),
available at:
oiles-uo
" Stephanie Dhue and Yian Mui, American businesses paid 50% more in tarffi in September due to Trump's trade
war, industry coalition søys, CNBC (Nov. 5,2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/l l/05/tariff-payments-up-
(Sept 2018).
Page 16
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
ii. Income Inequatity
Income inequality is a system-level issue for the United States economy.54 Over the last20 years,
the top l0 percent of income earners have received a nearly 200 percent increase in their overall
median_net worth, while the bottom 40 percent of earners have seen an actual decline in their net
worth.s5 This economic upheaval will ñuu. u major impact on goveûrment spendin g; an aging
population that has less of an ability to support itself will require more help from entitlement and
social programs. In the long term, it has the potential to negatively impact institutional investors'
portfolios; increase financial and social system-level instability; damage output and slow
economic growth; increase the Federal Deficit; and contribute to the tendencies toward
protectionism and tariffs.56
iii. Cost of Health Care
The cost of health care for the American consumer is increasing. Since the City of Central point
first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the U.Þ. has gone from spending 7.2 percent ofits GDP on health care to almost 18 percent today.57 See Figure 6. While total inflation is
averaging around 2.3 percent, healthcare has increased 3.7 percent. What is more, the price of
health care is rising &ster than normal prices and companies are having to spend more on health
insurance premiums.'o As a result, employees are taking less money home with them.
Figure 6: U.S. Health-Care Spending as a Share of GDp
1&Vo
16
14
12
10
a
6
4
2
o
1963 1980 20()0
5a Bob Eccles, Investors Can And Should Address The Fundamental Causes Of Income Inequality,Forbes (Oct. 30,2018) available at:
ause U.S. debtdowngrade, Moody's søys, MarketWatch (Oct.27,
2018), available at:
says-201 8- I 0- 1 2.tu Steve Lydenberg, et al., New Report; Why and How Investors Can Respond to Income Inequality,The Investment
Integration Project (2018) available at:
PDF warning).
the country's insanely expensive system have gone nowhere, Bloomberg
(Oct.29,2018).tt Id.
Page l7
20.1
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
iv. Cost of Education
The burden of student debt is likely to keep growir,rg, which will dramatically inhibit the abilityof younger generations to accumulate wealth.5e Outstanding student loans are already
approaching $1.2 trillion.60 While inflation is around 2.3 percent, ãnd health care costs are rising
at 3.7 percent, education expenses are rising at an incredible rate of 5.2 percent.6l In fact, if
education inflation continues at this rate, the cost of tuition and fees for a four-year public
university by 2028 will be between $65,590 for in-state public schools and 5224,124 for private
colleges.62
Many parents are burdened with saving large amounts of money to pay for their children's
college education. Further, many young adults are already burdened with enormous student loan
debts. Because parents and/or college graduates will need to spend enorïnous sums on tuition,
and wages are not rising to meet this increase, people will either be prevented from getting a
higher education or will be stuck paying off loans for a much longer period. In either case, that is
bad news for the economy.
t' Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause tJ.S. debt downgrade, Moody's says, MarketWatch (Oct.27,
2018), available at:
savs-2O I 8- I 0- 12.
6o Mike Patton, The Cost of Cotlege: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow, Forbes (Nov. 19,2018), available at:
62 Id.
Page 18
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 3: State Economic Trends
Oregon's economy is "hitting the sweet spot" and doing better than most other states.u' Wun",
and household incomes are rising, and workers are coming back into the labor market.6a Furth--er,
because state revenues are higher than forecasted, -Oregon taxpayers should expect to receive a
bonus "kicker" on their income tax returns in2019.6s
While the state economy is doing well, it is also acting more volatile than the national
economy.66 Josh Lehner, senior eðonomist at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, is
concerned that while the economy is still gtowing, the pace of that growth is slowing down.
Further,-"We expect that pattern to continue-that growth tomorrow will be slower than growth
today."67
Panelists at the 15th Annual Oregon Economic Forum indicated that economic trouble for the
state is likely still a few years a*ay.ut Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key private
Bank has interpreted the data as suggesting that the state economy is one or two years away from
a recession.6e Howerrer, both Mccãin andbregon Economic Forum director Tim Duy notãd that
a future recession may not be as bad as the Gre rt Recession.T0
Neighboring States
Oregon is geographically well situated because its neighboring states to the north and south have
very strong economies.
V/ashington State's GDP has grown 3 percent over the last five years, the largest increase in the
nation.Tr It has the l4th largesi GDP il the country at $439.4 uiúion ín zon72 no*.u"., ¡1
"156ranked 47th inthe US by unémployment rate, whicñ was 4.7 percent in June 2018.73
Califomia has the largest economy in the United States.Ta If California was a country, it would
63 O.egon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 20lS).uo Id. at r.ut r?99 McDowell, Oregon's economy is strong, but how long will it last? Eastem Oregonian (Oct. 12,20lg),
available at:
last.
66 Id.6' Id.
68 Anthony Macuk, Economists at Oregon forum; Don't expect qn imminent recession,The Columbian (Oct. I 7,2018), available at:
recession/.
6e Id.
10 Id.tt Oregon Small Business Association Foundation , Oregon #l 2 in nation's Best State Economies,Oregon Business
Report (Oct. 15,2018).
'2 Id.
13 Id.
74 Id.
Page 19
have the fifth largest economy in the world.75 California's GDP grew almost as much asWashington's at 2.9 percent over the last five years.t6 Itr GDP was eleven times that of
Oregon's, at52.4 trillion. While its unemployment rate is slightly above average at4.2percent, it
has had a f,tve vear annual employment growth of 2.2 percent, which is the eighth bìst in itre
nation.l7
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Meøsuring the State Economy
Like the national economy? there are similar ways to analyze Oregon's economy: GDp and
employment are important, as infomration specific to oregon's industries.
i. Gross Domestic Product
State GDP Like the national GDP, Oregon's GDP is a measure of how much the state
produces in goods and services.
Past Trends Since Central Point's first economic element in 1980, Oregon's economy hastransitioned from being a resource-based economy (traditionally timber, fishing, and agricuiture)to being a more mixed manufacturing and marketing economy (with an emphasis on higútechnology).tt At the same time, Oregon's GDI has mãre than doubled, from $100.3 billion in
1997 to 5212.6 billion in2017. ^see Figure 7 for oregon's GDp increase.
Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017
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]1O,Oq Nagourney and Matt Stevens, Catiþrnia Today: The State Faces Some Big problems. Are We Reødy? NewYork Times (Oct. I l, 201 8), available at:tu O.egon Small Business Association Fo
Report (oct. 15,2018).
¡tssucra'on ro gon Business
" Id.tt Otegon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts,Oregon Blue Book: Alman ac &FactBook, available at:
Page 20
æló
myfred/g/!LE
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
In the the last five years, Oregon's has had slightly above average
comparisonto other states: its GDP has grown 1.7 percent, the 16th largest
ry, ranking ft 24th in the nation.Te
Short-term proiectíon Although there is the possibility that the state economy will
continue booming, it is more likely that the state will experience a mild recession around 2020.
See Figure 8 for three likely scenarios for the state economy. The Oregon Economic and
Revenue Forecast of September 2018 anticipates that under the mild recession scenario, the
economy will contract by -1.8 percent in2020 and -0.6 percent in202L 80 Absent a recession, the
state's Real Gross State Product is projected to be the seventh fastest among all states across thecountry in terms of growth with gains averaging 2.5 percent through 2023.81
Figure 8: Short-Term Economic Scenarios for Oregons2
Alternat¡ve Scenarios Sep 2O18
Tota! fVonfarm Employrnent 2ma 2019 2020 202r* 2"1g()= 2.û
¿
1.9
Ëa¡Èc05t >
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Mild Recession
S€vere Recegs¡on
Pefsond lncome
Baseline
Opt¡mistic
M¡ld Recession
Sevêre Recêssion
T.7%
LA%
-7.8%
-4.1%
2_2%
2.6%
2.2%
2.a%
t.9/o
4.L76
o.7%
-2-6%
6.O%
9.\%
4.716
1.2.%
0.s%
o-f'x
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o.a%
4.6%
4.4r4
4.5%
5.9v.
1.8
7.7
1.6
1.5
5.t%
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5.r%
s-t%
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6.L'X
2.3%
-o.9%2 2ûû5 ?û10 zÐrs 2r)2û
Long-term projection Even if there is a recession in the coming years, the economy
should recover and continue to do well into the long-term.
Conclusion Like the national economy, the state economy should remain healthy over the
next year. However, there is a strong potential that a national recession will spill over into
Oregon, damaging the state economy and harming Oregon residents.
ii. Employment
Overview Oregon has more than two million people in its labor force.83 Through 2023, the
state economy's total employment is expected to be the eighth strongest among all the states at a
rate of 1.3 percent.8a
Past Trends Nearly every state industry was affected by the Great Recession but by ly'ray 2016,
Oregon had more jobs than it had when the recession began.8s See Figure 9, which shows how
7e Id.t0 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at l6 (Sept 2018).8t Id. ut2l.t' Id.
83 oregon Secretary of State, oregon Facts, oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book.o* Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 2l (Sept 2018).8t Id.
Page 2l
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
the state unemployment rate has changed depending on the national economic environment.
Figure 9: Oregon's Unemployment Rate
FRED .41 - uÊñor,yñ.ñR.t. rnor.son
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Recent trends Currently, Oregon's, unemployment number is under what is historically
considered full employnent for the state.86 However, for the last three years, the unemployment
rate has been extremely v^o_latile; a few months of extreme declines have been followed by
months of huge in^creases.87 However, over the last year the Oregon unemployment rate has
stopped declining.ss Currently, it is hovering around 4 percent.
Short-term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the Oregon
unemployment rate will remain steady for the near future because this job growth rate now
matches population and labor force gains.8e However, if there is a severe recession in the near-
future, unemplo¡rment may spike up to 10 percent.e0
Long-term proiections The Oregon Officg of Economic Analysis projects a "slightly
stronger economic outlook" in2025 and beyond.et Compared to the rest of the country, Oregon'i
employment numbers should fare well. Total employment could be the eighth strongest in the
nation at L3 percent, while manufacturing employment could be the seventh fastest in the
country at 1.1 percent.e2
I 98f)
S hl¿ed xre$ tndtato U S ¡€æs¡o,F
t 995 2qn
Source: ll.s. Bur€du ol ¡obor slollllc¡
I 985 I 990 m5 ælo
Conclusion Based on the economic reports created by the oregon Office of Economic
Analysis, the Oregon unemployment rate should remain steady for the near future. However,
depending on the strength of the anticipated 2020 slowdown, this could change dramatically. If
Oregon's economy is lucky enough to avoid being harmed by the national economy, the
unemployment rate should continue to decrease to near-record levels.
16 Id. at lot' Id.
88 Id.
8e Id.
90
91
Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 20 (Sept 2018).
Id. at 15.
Id. at 2l .
Page 22
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
iii. Industry Strengths
Another way to understand the state economy is to see how the state's population is employed.
Figure 10 list the most common jobs in Oregon, as well as the normal wages. Location Quotient("LQ") shows the relative strength of that occupation in Oregon's economy. For example, if an
LQ is greater than one it indicates that the concentration is greater in Oregon than the national
average. If it is less than one, it indicates that Oregon has a lower concentration than on average.
Figure 10: oregon occupational Employment and wage Estimates from May 2016e3
Occupation title Employment Employment te Median
per 1,000 jobs hourly wage
All Occupations 1,790,940 1000 I $18.26
Office and Administrative Support 265,770 148.399 0.95 $16.96
Sales and Related 181,760 101.488 0.98 $13.45
FoodPreparation and Serving 170,710 95.32 1.03 $10.98
Related
Transportation and Material Moving I19,650 66.806 0.96 $15.73Production 1t3,230 63.226 0.97 516.47Management 110,970 61.96 1.23 S42.gl
Education, Training, andlibrary 103,930 58.031 0.94 $23.01
Healthcare Practitioners and 98,610 55.061 0.93 $3g.16
Technical
Business and Financial Operations 83,790 46.i88 0.9 529.96
Construction and Extraction 72,580 40.526 1.02 $22.45
Personal Care and Service 69,360 38.726 1.2 $l l.9g
Installation, Maintenance, and 61,940 34.587 0.89 $21.21
Repair
Retail Salespersons 61,610 34.402 1.07 $l l.g5
Building and Grounds Cleaning and 55,400 30.93 I 0.98 $12J7
Maintenance
Computer and Mathematical 50,900 28.419 0.96 $37.72
Occupations
Healthcare Support 48,130 26.8l.7 0.93 516.24
Cashiers 45,730 25.535 l.Ot $11.03
A¡chitecture and Engineering 40,820 22.795 I.2B $37.31
Commwrity and Social Service 35,930 20.061 1.39 $20.6g
Registered Nurses 35,220 19.667 0.97 542.32
Combined Food Preparation and 34,950 19.5 18 0.8 $ 10.55
Serving Workers, Fast Food
Office Clerks, General 33,500 18.707 0.89 $15.90
rùaiters and Waitresses 33,100 18.48 l.0l $10.62
Protective Service 32,740 18.283 0.76 $22.29
Annual mean wage
$49,710
s37,430
s37,980
$25, l 90
$36,550
$37,460
$ r 02,990
$57,4s0
$90, I 00
$68,530
$50,820
s27,900
$47,190
$28,890
$29,350
$82,190
$35,1 l0
s24,640
$86,8 l0
$46,490
$87,000
$22,930
$34,470
s26,240
$s0,010
e3 Bureau of Labor and Statistics, May 2016 State Occupational Employment and l(age Estimates
Oregon, Department of Labor (May 2016), available at: www.bls.eov/oes/2O16/ma../oes or.htm#00-0000.
Page 23
City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
The state agency Business Oregon lists six target industries for the state economy: Forestry &
Wood Products, Advanced Manufacturing, High Technology, Food & Beverage Services,
Business Services, and Outdoor Gear & Apparel.ea
Oregon continues to be a leader in forestry and agriculture. While the Oregon economy is much
more diverse than it was thirty years ago, forestry and agriculture still exhibit employment that is
concentrated at many times the national average. However, the timber industry is under pressure
from both the market and federal regulations, and so is projected to grow slowly.es
Oregon's manufacturing industry is weighted
relative to the nation, which mostly conce
semiconductors and wood products have been
more slowly in the future.eT The state's primary
of the continued operation of Oregon's aluminum industry.
The computer and electronic product manufacturing industries are strong due to the presence of
Intel and Tektronix in the Portland area. Non-store retailers like Harry & David contribute to the
strength in that industry sector. Beverage manufacturing comes from the growing wine and craft
beer industries in Oregon.
Professional and Technical Services is a fast-growing, emerging industry in Oregon.e8 It includes
businesses who are using their expertise to help businesses around the world to grow.ee
Management and te e largest industry in this group, followed by
engineering services relations, and related services.l0O For example,
cH2M was founded i oys over 26,000 employees worldwide.lOl
While Oregon is not known as a home for Fortune 500 companies, it does have Nike, a world-
leader in shoes and athletic apparel. The City of Portland is also the home of Columbia
Sportswear, which specializes in the target industry of outdoor Gear & Apparel.
The Offrce of Economic Analysis has ranked eleven industries as doing exceptionally well.
Private sector food.manufacturing, education, and health care have never suffered strong losses
from a recession.lO2 Further, t.tuil "-ployment, wholesale, transportation, warehousing and
utilities, and construction have surpassed their pre-recession levels and are at all time highs.103
ea Business Oregon, Business Oregon's Target Industry Groups,available at: www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon-
Business/Industries/.
nt Orego.r Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at l7 (Nov. 2018).e6 Id.
e7 Id.
e8 Business Oregon, Business Oregon's Target Industry Groups,available at www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon-
Business/Industries/.
ee Id.
too Id.
tot Id.
102 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 8 (Sep. 201S).to3 Id. -
Page 24
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
State Econom ic Crosscurrents :
Primary Risks to Oregon's Economy The state economy appears healthy: GDP is good,
unemployment is low, and Oregon's industries are strong and growing. However, the state
economy is at risk: the national economy could experience a small recession that could drag
down the state economy, trade wars threaten the state's economic vitality, there is a housing
crisis, and wildfires and smoke are harming the tourism industry.
i. The National Economy
Because of the potential for an economic slowdown around 2020, it is important to analyze the
impacts that the last national recessions had on the Oregon economy. In fact, Josh Lehner of the
Oregon Off,rce of Economic Analysis forecasts thata future recession wouldbe like the 1990s
recession,l0a so it is important to review how that particular economic event effected the state
economy.
The 1 990s recession was relatively mild on the national economy. 'ot In the I 990s, Oregon "lostjust as many jobs as the US did."l06 However, many consumer service sectors and industries
actually ouþerformed the US economy.tot This included manufacturing, construction, services,
and retail. Nevertheless, the dala indicates that there were big manufacturing job losses, with less
losses in the service sectors. 108 As a result, if there is a recession around 2020 and,it appears to
be similar to the 1990s recession, Oregon should brace itself for losses in the manufacturing
industry, but for the industry to be able to hunker down and withstand a shorl economic storm.
ii. Trade Wars
Oregon is particularly susceptible to harm from a trade war because Oregon trades more with
foreign nations than most other states.ton As a result, should China and Canada retaliate against
US trade tariffs, Oregon's economy could be dealt a particularly strong blow.ll0 According to
economist Josh Lehner of the Oregon Off,rce of Economic Analysis, the impact of tariffs from
China and Canada to Oregon's economy could be about $870 million.lll It has the potential to
impact the state's agriculture industry, aluminum scrap exporters, various consumer goods, and
distillery companies."' Iî there is continued escalation and if global supply chains are disrupted,
"it will be a much bigger economic problem."l13
rOa Josh Lehner, Hammer Don't Hurt 'Em, OregonOffice of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26,2}l|),available at:
to6 Id.
to1 [d.
to& Id.
roe Kathleen Mclaughlin, Tariff hikes hit Oregon products, The Bend Bulletin (June 1 9, 201 8), available at:
,r, Id.
tt2 Id.tt3 Id.
Page 25
City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
Íii. Housing Affordabitity
Oregon is in a housing crisis. Since Central Point adopted its first Economic Element in 1980,housing P,{r.ces in Oregon have risen by 31 5Yo, making it 4th in the nation for housing pricéincreases.lla A major issue is that Oregon is not building-enough housing units to keep pace withthe population increase. According to the Oregon Home Builders Association Orègon needs
25,000 new units every year, but only 15,000 are being constructed.lls
ts and home prices. This, plus a very low rental
housing crisis across the state.l16 According to
regon is the 3'd most unaffordable rental market
on Housing and Community Services Director
Margaret Van Vliet, the state has 130,000 extremely low-income households but only 20,000
housing units are affordable for those households.tls
This crisis is straining the state economy because housing is a necessary expenditure. If 55percent of renters in Oregon must pay more than 30 percent of their income to housing,tle thenOregon consumers will have less purchasing power. Further, if there is not enough housing,
Oregon will have fewer workers and will be less able to entice targetindustries to relocate.
iv. Wildfires and Smoke
V/ildfires and smoke have been negatively impacting the Oregon economy.l20 The last two years
have had record levels of unhealthy air. According to the Oregon Department of Forestry'. i0l g
fire statistics 70,685 of the acres that it protects burned as of September 2018, which is S¡percent higher than the I O-year average.
A wildfire impact study released by Travel Oregon in July 2018 found that the state lost $51.5million in visitor spending due to the 2017 wildfires.l2r According to the study, JosephineCounty lost $680,000 and Jackson County lost $2.8 million in spenãing because of the fires.Those losses were mostly in the food service and accommodationlndust i.r.t" The smoke alsocost the Oregon Shakespeare Festival in Ashland about $2 million as a result of cancelling
outdoor performances. I 23
I'o Habitat for Humanitv, Oregon's Housing Crisis, available at: habitatoreeon.org/affiliates/oregons-housing-crisis/,rs Id.
, Medford Mail Tribune (March 30, 2018), available at:
.t.
on tourism, KATU (Aug. 14, 2018), available at:
ailable at:
'" f-"1.-. Libbey, Witdfire Smoke Disrupts Oregon Shakespeare Festival,New York Times (Aug. 24,201g),available at:
Page 26
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 4: Economic Trends in southern oregon
Overview Central Point is located in Jackson County and near Josephine County. Bothcounties effect Central Point's economy and are often treated as a single iegion for economic
data.
J-acl<son Countyt2a It has a population of 219,270 people as of May 2018,12s which accounts
for approximately 5 percent of Ore,gon's population.126 Between 2000 at d,2010, it experienced a
1.1 percent increase in populati on127 and a 5.26 percent increase in m dian househòld income,
from $44,028 to $46,343.t28Its median age is 42.9.
Southern Oregon The Office of Economic Analysis has stated that Southern Oregon was hithard by the Great Recession and that the recovery has been more difficult than other parts of the
state.l2e However, local job growth has returned, and poverty rates are falling. While Jackson
County has historic highs in wage growth and employment rates, Josephine County is still in a
bad position, having yet to regain its losses fro L the last recession.l30 -
i. Gross Domestic Product
Jackson County had the 103'd fastest growth in GDP between 2016 and,2017 among the nation,s
384 metropolitan areas (2.6 percent).131 This is compared to the U.S. metropolitan a:reas growingby an average of 2.1 percent during the same time frame.l32 The U.S.
-Bureau of Economió
Analysis has projected that the county had a GDp of $g,590,000,00 0 for 2017 .133
Industries in Jackson County that boosted GDP growth were education and health services;professional and business services; trade; and transportation, warehousing, and utilities.l3a SeeFigure 11. Those industries that damaged GDP growth were other servicesãnd information.l35
'o Offtciully labeled "Medford OR (MSA)" (the Medford, Oregon Metropolitan Statistical Area).'" Population Research Center, Portland State Universíty, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region IDocuments 8 (May 2018), available at:
(PDF warning).
'" 210,91614,142.000 = 5.09%r27 Population Research Center, Portland State Univers ity, Jaclcson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2:Region I
.4,at20 (Nov. 2018).
''' gut Taær, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace (LS. Average in 20lT,eualitylnfo (Sept.27,201g),
available at:,3'[d.
t33 Burea., of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release; Gross Domestic product byMetropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: wrvw.bea.eov/systen/files/2018-09/gdp metro0glg O.pdf(PDF warnins).ito Id.
'3t [d.
Page 27
City of Central Point
Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County's GDPr36
Medford MSA (Jackson County) Industry
Contribution to GDP Growth
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
083Education and health seruices
Professional and bus¡ness ærvices
Trade
Transportation and utilities
Construction
Leisure and hospital¡ty
Natural resources and mining
Nondurable€oods manufacturin g
Durable-goods manufactu ring
FÌnancial activities
Government
Other seruices
lnfometion
0.37
036
0.29
024
0.22
0.22
-02 00 02 0.4 06 08 10
Contributions to Percent Change ¡n Real Gross Domest¡c product
(Percentage Po¡nts)
The U.S. Bur cted that Josephine County had a GDp of$2,478,000,00 t 3l't in the nation in terms of fastest growth
in GDP for 20 at 4.3 percent.
Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County's GDPr3e
G ra n ts'1""""iÎåÍi,ïii
Hffi 8ïHJ I n d u srry
011
008
006
003
-0.09
-0 09
F¡nancial activít¡es
Educatíon and health seryices
Leisure and hospitaliiy
Trade
Construction
Transportation and utilities
Natural resources end mining
Durable-goods menufacturing
Nondurable-goods manufacturíng
Govemment
lnfomation
182
o71
058
055
0.36
-o.14
Other services -0 26
Professional and business sery¡ces -O 32
-0.5 00 0.5 10 .t5 2.0
Contribut¡ons to Percent Change ¡n Real Gross Domestic product
(Percentage Po¡nts)
In Josephine County, 40 percent of GDP $owth came from finance, insurance, and real estate.laO
iil c"t Tauer, Medþrd and Grants Pqss GDP Growth outpace u.s. Average in 2017.''' Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by
Metropolitan Area, 20I7 (Sep. I 8, 2018), available at: www.bea.gov/slrstem/files/201 8-09/gdp-metro09l 8 O.pdf
(PDF warning).
'38 Id.
''n Guy Tauer, Medþrd and Grants Pqss GDP Growth Outpace (/.5. Average in 2017.t4o Jd.'
Page 28
0 31
023
o22
015
008
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Other industries that are strong are trade, education and health services (like in Jackson County),
and leisure and hospitality. See Figure 12. Professional and business services, information, and
other services reduced the GDP.
Conclusíon Southern Oregon's economy is growing at a good pace. Both Jackson and
Josephine County are well ranked nationally in terms of the rate of economic growth. However,
they both have a long way to go to recover from the losses they suffered in the Great Recession.
iÍ. Employment
Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate
FRE][)- 4t - uÈmproym€nr Aãt. ¡n Mcdlod,o (Msa)
Recent Trends Southern Oregon was recently ranked in the top 30 job markets in the United
States based on job growth over the last five years.tot USA Today ranked the nearby City of
Medford as #28 in the nation, saying:
Medford is one of several rapidly growing cities in Oregon adding jobs at a faster pace
than almost anywhere else in the country. Due in large part to the metro arears education
and health services industry, there are over 13,000 more jobs in Medford today than there
were in 2013, a 15.4 percent increase.la
USA Today also said that Grants Pass had the largest drop in unemployment in the nation
between 2013 and2018, ranking it as the 18th best job growth economy in the nation.la3 Job
growth was driven by the education and health services industry, which added 1,700 out of the
5,000 newjobs.laa
lt
IJ
t2
II
ì0
I
I
.,
6
5
¿
æló 20ta
myl red/g/lYQv
lal Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available
AT:
t42
available at:
jobsl38319445/.
143 Id.
144 Id.
1992 l99A
Sha¿ec{ .1.eæ qdiâle U S reæsr¿æ
26¡ N2 m 2Úó
Sourc€: US Euroqu ollobor Stqlblk!
ì 99ó I 990 2(¡8 ælO mt2 Ãtt
Page29
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Despite this new gtowth, Jackson County's unemployment rate is still higher than the national
average.'*' In fact, both Jackson and Josephine County had the highest unemployment rates out
of all the cities in the USA Today's list of best local economies.raó However, when compared to
Jackson County has one of the lowest unemployment rates at 4.4
3. Neighboring Josephine county is at 5.5 percent while Klamath8
Conclusíon The Southern Oregon.economy is growing at avery good rate. V/hile it still needs
to catch up to the rest of the nation,to' if it is able to avãid being h-armed too much by the next
economic slowdown, it should be able to make up its past losses.
iii. Housing
Overview For the last few years the local housing market has been booming. However, it
now appears to be slowing down. This is a major concern for the Southern Oregon economy
because it may inhibit construction of much-needed housing units and continue to drive up the
price of rent.
Recent trends Between 2000 and 2010, the total number of housing units in Jackson County
increased rapidly.lsO Housing units increased by 20.1 percent, with 2-,130 units in Central point
alone (almost half of Medford's growth of 5,000 units).rsr In 2018 home prices in Jackson
Countx increased by an average of $12,000 in comparison to 2017, a slower rate than previous
years. tt'
Conclusion Southern Oregon is one of the last affordable housing areas in the West Coast.l53
This could encourage Californians to relocate and contribute to the local econo-y.tto However,
new residents from wealthier states could encourage local builders to concentrate on constructing
expensive homes and not affordable housing. This could price out younger people, such as
Millennials, and portions of the working class from the region.
las Leah Thompson, Southern Oregon's (Jnemployment Rates are Higher than Country's Average,Newswatch 12
(Nov. 4, 2018), available at:
Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch l2 (Nov. 13,2018), available
?.1;
'08 Id.
'on Id.
r50 Population Research Center, Portland State Univers ity, Jaclæon County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2 Region IDocuments 17 (May 2018), available at:
(PDF waming).
''' Matt Jordan,Housing market 'softening' in Jaclcson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at:
Matt Jordan, Housing market 'softening' in Jqclson county, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 201s), available at
Greg Stiles, Housing prices will attract outsiders, Medford Mail Tribune
Page 30
(Oct. 15,2018), available at:
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 5: The City of Central Pointos Trends
Introduction Central Point has unique economic and social trends when compared to the
Southern Oregon region. Its population is fast-growing, relatively young, and its workers
generally commute short distances to work.
Meøsuring the City's Trends
i. Commuting Patterns
Introductíon The Department of Land Conservation & Development (DLCD) recommends
analyzing commute patterns as one of the ways to determine land use needs.
Central Point exhibits a somewhat unique combination of commuting patterns. See Figure 14.
Typically, cities that have a low percentage of its residents working within the city also have
relatively high commute times. But that is not the case for Central Point, which has only 21
percent of its residence working outside the city. Those residents have much shorter commute
times when compared to both the national and state averages for workers commuting outside
their cities. This is probably because a latge amount of Central Point residents work in north
Medford. In many cases this is only a few blocks from where they live. Many may also work in
White City, which can be accessed by roads with little congestion, such as Úrterstate 5 or Table
Rock Road.
Figure 14: Central Point Resident Patternslss
'tt U.S. Bureau of the Census.
't6 The number of residents using public transportation was listed as 0.}Yoin the data set. However, that is
improbable. Other Census Bureau data lists ít as 1.5o/o and so that is included here. See U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-year Estimate, DataUSA (2016), available at:
Page 3 1
Worker Travel Information
(workers 16 years and over)
Jackson
Oregon County
Central
Point
Means of Transportation to Work
Car, truck, or van
Drove alone
Carpooled
Public transportation (excluding
taxicab)
V/alked
Bicycle
Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means
Worked at home
Travel Time to Work
82.7%
72.0%
r0.8%
865%
76.8%
9.7%
93.8%
86.0%
7.8%
4.2%
3.9%
2.1%
t.0%
6.t%
0.9%
3.4%
t.4%
1.0%
6.1%
I.5o/ors6
2.0%
t.4%
0.2%
2.7%
Less than 10 minutes
10 to 14 minutes
15 to 19 minutes
20Io 24 minutes
25 to 29 minutes
30 to 34 minutes
35 to 44 minutes
45 to 59 minutes
60 or more minutes
Mean travel time to work (minutes)
Place of Work
Worked in state of residence
Worked in county of residence
Worked outside county of residence
Worked outside state of residence
Living in a place
V/orked in place of residence
Worked outside place of residence
tna aceNot
17.s%
16.9%
t65%
15.0%
s.9%
rt.9%
s.4%
s.6%
53%
22.1
20.6%
22.2%
19.3%
15.2%
5.0%
8.8%
3.3%
2.9%
2.7%
18.4
2r.8%
29.7%
24.7%
tt.2%
3A%
s.5%
r.8%
0.4%
1.6%
14.8
97.8%
775%
20.3%
a ao/L.Z,/O
79.4%
38.6%
40.8%
20.6%
98.8%
949%
3.9%
1.2%
743%
37ß%
36.5%
25.7%
99.s%
97.7%
t.8%
0.s%
r00.0%
2l.0yo
79.0o/o
0.0%
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
ii. Local Population Forecast
Introduction In addition to reviewing commuting pattems and economic trends, it is alsoimportant to review trends related to population growth. The DLCD recommends analyzingpopulation- because it is one of the best means to determine Central Point's future lanã
demand.l57 V/hile economic trends are subject to rapid changes without much warning,population growth is much easier to predict.
This section contains a short analysis of population trends as of 2019. For a more comprehensive
analysis, see the Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039).
Past Trends Since Central Point published its first Economic Eleqent, Jackson County's totalpopulation has grown from roughly 114,000 to 219,270 people.Iss See Figure 15. The highgrowth rates of the 1970s were a result of relative economic prosperity whilã the decline in tñe
1980s was a result of challenging economic conditions.l5e During the 1990s, the county,s growth
rates increased again at first but then declined later in the decade. Jackson County's total
population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate ofjust over I percent.
lt Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Developm ent, Tips þrCo alysis (March2008).r58 ate Unìversity, Cooidinated Population Forecast: 2018 through 2068(Ja
159
Page 32
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Figure 15: Jackson County-Total Population by Five-year Intervals (197 5-20fi)160
Ë200,000o
_e:
trls0,000
CL
E
ãtoo,ooo
î3.5% 'c4
3,0% I
túÉ,2,57o sF3
2.096 g
t9ì1,s% :tr
1.0% ÍÐt!L0,s% 9
0.0%
ãJoF 50,000
0
-
PopulËtion
-AAGR
1975
1 13, E5{¡
3.894
1980
13E000
3.X
19&í
r36,4¡E
0.59ó
1990
r46,389
L,M
1gqi
167,3:tr
2.7%
2000
r8L269
1.6'6
20frt
r92,054
7,TÁ
2010
203,206
1.1t6
20L7
2 16,900
0.99t
9our¡es: U,S Censu: Buresu, 1S8Û, 1990, 20ÛÛ, and 2û1tl Censu:e:; PDpuldtion Research fenter (PR{l), july l:tAnnLtal EsttmÈte: 1975. 198S. l9g5,jtlo5 ãnd 1017
Central from 2000-2010.161 after EaglePoint's I people,l63
ranking behind Medford's 82,566 people and just behind the City of Ashland's 21,501 people.l6a
Reasons for Increase The county's positive population growth has largely been the result of net
immigration.l6s The aging popuiatiôn has ledìo un inðrease in deaths and local women have
postponed having children, which has resulted in birth stagnation. As a result, without
immigration, Southern Oregon would be experiencing a "natural decrease" in population.
Long-term proiections Jackson County is likely to grow at a fastpace in the short-term.166
The Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) forecasts that Jackson
county's will grow from2l9,270 people to 264,951 people by 2039.'u' s"" Figure 16.
'60 Id. at lo.l6r Population Research Center, Portland State Univers ity, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region I
Documents (May 201 8), available at:
(PDF warning).
t6, Id.
t,63^see city of central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12.l6a Portland State University, Population Research C ãnter, Jackson òounty Coordinated Population Forecast 2018
through 2068.
Population Research Center, Portland State Universíty, Jacl<son County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region I
Documents (May 2018), available at:
(PDF warning)at 9.
tut Id.
t66 Id.
'ut City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) aI 13
Page 33
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
According to the Population Research Center at Portland State University, the City of Central
Point is expected to capture a much larger share of Jackson County's future population than it
has in the past.l68 Central Point is expected to have a short-term growth rate'oi 1.5 percent,l6e
and by 2039, Central Point will have 26,317 people, making it larger than the City of Ashland.rT0
This also means that approximately 7 percent of the county population will live in Central
Point.171
re 16:Growth ections for ofCentral Point and Jackson Cou 72
Figure 17: Central Point Population PyramidlT3
168 Population Research Center, Portland State Univers ity, Jackson County Final Forecqsl Report, Cycle 2: Region I
9-2039) at 13.
cle 2: Region I Documents (May 2018) at47
9-2039) at 12.
9-2039) at 13, Table 1.
13-2033 citingU.S. Census Bureau.
Page 34
Year Central Point Jackson County Josephine Countv
2019
2020
2025
2030
2035
2039
l9,l0l
19,714
21,035
22,920
24,815
26,317
219,270
235,066
246,611
257,256
263,006
264,951
86,423
88,274
90,177
93,194
95,677
97,377
Change: 2019 to 2039 7,216 45,681 10,954
95+ yeârs
90 to 94 years
85 to 89 years
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 Ìo 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
35 to 39 yeârs
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 yeårs
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
t0 to 14 yeers
5 to 9 yeàrs
Under 5 years
Central Point 2Ot0 Population Pyramid
.800 -600 -400 -200 o 2m 400 600 8m
I Femðle
r M¿le
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
The population pyramid for Central Point, see Figure 17, depicts the typical shape for a town
without a university. The "gap" in residents aged 20-24 exists in most non-university towns
because this is the age where young adults leave to attend college or obtain employment
elsewhere. Although this data will be less valuable after the 2020 census, it still helps to predict
what types of services and land use Central Point needs to offer. The City's population is less
top-heavy than either the nation or the county because fewer people aged 65 or older live in
Central Point. Although the Southern Oregon region experiences high levels of retirees
relocating to the area, this does not appear to be the case in Central Point. However, the ongoing
Twin Creeks project may alter future data.
Because of the relative youth of the population, Central Point has alarge percentage of families
with working-aged individuals aged 30-50 and their children under the age of 14. Proportionally,
this means that Central Point has higher levels of working-age individuals than the national
population. This shows that Central Point has a strong labor base, and that there will continue to
be a strong demand for education services.
Conclusion Central Point must prepare to have its population grow by almost 38% over the
next 20 years. Should the population trends continue, the City must also be prepared to house a
population younger than a typical non-university town.
iii. Regional Employment Forecast
Introduction The DLCD also recommends analyzing job growth forecasts as a means to
determine a city's future land use needs. l7a
The employrnent forecast data used in this section was generated by the Research Division at the
Oregon Employment Department through 2027. This is the best region-specific data currently
available. The following analysis correlates to both population growth per the City of Central
Point Population & Demographics Element (2019) and the anticipated expansion of specific
occupations and industries. The subsequent conclusions assume that the forecasted rates of 2017-
2027 wlll remain constant through 2039.
Growth According to Guy Tauer, the Regional Economist for Jackson and Josephirre
counties, between 2017 and 2027, l4,IIl new jobs will open in the "Rogue Valley region"lT5
due to population gtowth.rT6 In addition, the_re will be 148¡07 job openings to replace workers
who leave the occupation or the workforce."'A worker who leaves ajob and then is hired to do
the same job at another establishment would not be counted as a replacement opening.ttt
tta Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Developm ent, Tips forC_onducting (March 2008).
"'DefinedI't6 ^"" uuy I au ions by Occupation 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 9, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/rogue-valley-employment-proiections-by-
o c cup ation-2} I 7 -2027 .,r, [d.
t78 [d.
Page 35
Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, Z0l7-2027t7e
City of Central Point
Service
Sales and Related
Offìce and Administrative Support
Professional and Related
Transportation and Material Mov in g
Health Care
Management, Business, and Financial
Production
Construction and Exlraction
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
lnstallation, Maintenance, and Repair
Id.
rd.
Id.
Id.
rd.
Id.
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
I Replacement Job Openings
I Growth Job Openings
0 10,000 20,000 3o,ooo 4o,0oo 5o,ooo
Service Industry The service industry had the largest share of total jobs in 2017 .,See Figure
18 for both industry-specific job openings and job growth. The service industry is also exp;tedto add the most new jobs in Jackson County and have the
2027.1t0 This industry includes food preparation, personal
ground keeping, and protective service occupations.18l This
dedicate more lands to retail use.
Sales and Related Industries After the service industry, the greatest total openings will be in
indust{ips, such as ofltce and administrative support-each with approximately
nings.l82 These have growth rates of 6.7 p"r""rrt and 5.3 percentift3 ftri.-iãiis probably a result of labor-saving^ technologies like self-checkout stations,
automated inventory systems, and online retail sales.l8a This means that Central Point will needto dedicate additional lands to office use.
Health Care The health care and social assistance industries currently account for
approximately one out of six jobs in the Rogue Valley.lss lnfact, the area's current employmentis concentrated in this industry with over 20,830 employees. Through 2027, health cãre is
r79
180
t8t
t82
183
t84
Ï' Out Tauer, Rogue Valley Emptoyment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 3,2018), available at:
2017-2027.
Page 36
City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
expected to have the most job openings-adding 3,780 new jobs.l86 ,See Figure 20 for industry-specific employment growth.-This means that health care occupations will continue to grow byapproximately I7.7 percent.rsT This is because a growing anã aging population will demandmore health care services,.which will in turn create more emptoy-*t-opportunities in thisrecession-resistant industry. I 88
Although health care in the Rogue Valley is mostly concentrated in Medford, given that it hasboth Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center and Providence Medford MedicafCenter, CentralPoint has begun to make inroads into the industry with the Providence Medical plazaon NorthPacific Highway. This indicates that Central Point may want to dedicate more land to office
space use in order to house more health care workers.
Constructíon Over the decade, construction is expected to have the fastest job growthrate in the 5 percent. This is becáuse housing construction, while stillbelow pre- is picking back up.l8e As a result, Central Point may needmore indus truction shops, warehouses, machinery storage, and companyoffices.
Professional & Management, Business, and Financial The two industries of professional
and Related services and Management, Business, and Financial services will both be growing at
a healthy rate. Professional and related occupations will have a growth rate of l0 peıent. Às aresult, Central Point will want to dedicate a good amount of iti employment lands for office
space use.
186
t87
r88
t89
rd.
rd.
Id.
Id.
Page 37
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2011,-2027te0
Heahh care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitaliÇ
Profession al and business services
Construction
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Natural resources and mining
Local government
Other servíces ând private households
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
Financial actVities
Private ed ucational services
Federal government
State government
ty'úholesale trade
lnformation
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,ooo 3,soo 4,ooo
Manufacturing and retail Manufacturing,and retail trade are still expected to add jobs by2027,just under 1,000 for both industries.'n' 5"" Figure 20 for industry employment cnanges.
However, the possibility of an economic slowdown in these sectors sho;ld be taken imo
consideration when allocating land.
Leísure and hospita.líty About one in eleven jobs in the Rogue Valley were in leisure andhospitality in 2017 .re2 This tourism- reliant sector is forecast to adá 1,930 3obs betwe en 2017 and.2027.'"' However, Central Point should consider the devastating effects that wildfires and smoke
could have on the industry in the near-future.
lo out Tauer, Rogue Valley Emptoyment Proiections by Industry 2017-2027,State of oregon EmploymentDepartment (July 3,2018), available at:
2017-2027.
tel Id.
te2 Id.,n, Id.
Page 38
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2021.te4
Jackson and J hine Counties
Using the total employment date in Figure 20, we know how many people each industry
employed ]n 2017 and a projection for those figures through 2027. As a result, we can calculate
the annual job growth for the region per industry. Using the foregoing data, and assuming that
the rates remain constant, a sample jobs forecast for the Rogue Valley region can be calculated
through 2039, as seen in Figure 21.
'no Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections data (June 26,2¡I8),available at:
2027 ? v ersion: 1.5 (Excel warning)
Page 39
Sector 2017 2027
oÁ
Total Employment
Total payroll employment
Total private
Natural resources and mining
Mining and logging
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods
Wood product manufacturing
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Private educational and health services
Private educational services
Health care and social assistance
Health care
Leisure and hospitality
Accommodation and food services
Other services and private households
Government
Federal government
Federal government post ofhce
State government
Local government
Local education
l23,tgÛ
116,030
101,750
3,600
550
5,290
r0,740
7,r70
2,610
25,020
3,190
18,1 l0
3,720
7,410
5,310
9,290
21,830
1,000
20,830
18,490
14,580
r2,700
4,680
14,290
2,0I0
4s0
2,750
9,520
6,790
7 160
137,610
129,390
r14,2g0
4,430
s70
6,600
11,690
7,500
2,670
26,430
3,290
19,090
4,050
1,410
5,630
10,650
25,790
1,1 g0
24,610
21,710
16,510
14,290
5,1 50
15,100
2,1 g0
4s0
2,910
10,010
7,160
8
14,420
13,360
12,540
830
20
1,310
950
330
60
1.410
100
980
330
0
320
1,360
3,960
180
3,780
3,230
1,930
1,590
470
820
t70
0
160
490
370
l2o/o
r2%
t2%
23%
/lO/a/o
25%
9%
5%
¿to/
L /ll
6%
3%
5%
9%
0%
6%
t5%
t8%
t8%
t8%
t7%
t3%
t3%
t0%
6%
8%
0%
6%
5%
5%
ts%
City of Central Point
Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast
Jackson and Counties
Corstruction & Nahnal Resources
Manufachring
Transportation & Utlilities
Wholesale Trade
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Sector
8,890
t0,740
3,720
11,030
I I,690
4,050
214
95
33
l0
4,280
r,900
660
200
2,140
950
330
100
Numberof
Jobs in
20l7res
Numberof
Jobs in
2027re6
Forecasted
Change in Forecasted
Jobs through AnnualChange
2o27re1 inJobsles
Total Job Grurvth
tr'orccast Southern
Oregon 2019
Sector 203gree
Retail Trade
Financìal
Services þrofessional, business, health,
l 8,l l0
5,3 l0
190 90
19,090
5,630
98
32
980
320
1,960
640
Subtotal Industrial Jobs 352 7
education. h
Instihrtional/Go vemrnent
Other
Farm Employment
Forestry, Fishing, and Related
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
information)47 ll0 7 0 725 14,500
1,640
70 530
In total, if the job growth rates projected for 2017-2027 are maintained for the next two decades,
Southern Oregon will grow by 28,840 jobs by 2039.
iv. Regional Competitiveness
Generally, employers make locational decisions based upon a region's competitive position for
their industry. They then choose between communities within that region based upon localized
factors. So, identifying industries in which the region can become competitive is an important
step in developing land use policies and strategies to capture economic development potential for
which Jackson County is well positioned.
re 22: Jackson C Shift-Share 2010-20171es
14,280
I 1,840
15,100 820 82
153
1.63
3.9s
0.32
I
0.9
1.48
4.02
0.53
1.0s
L08
13.44
t3.44
13.44
t3.44
13.44
365
286
35
742
924
-10.3
I
74.74
4.9
20.s7
-280
2t
194
271
1,414
re5 Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP), Shift-Share Analysis of Employment Growth
Jackson County, 2010-2017 (dataanalyzed Nov. 15, 2018), available at: oregon.reaproject.org/analysis/shift-
share/tools/4 I 0029 I 20 l0 /20 17 / .
'nu Th" change in local employment that would have occurred for a specific industry had it grown at the national
growth rate of all industries combined.
re7 The additional gain (or loss) in local employment for a specific industry beyond the national growth and industry
mix effects resulting from the industry growing faster (or slower) than the same industry nationally. This does not
represent actualjobs lost butjobs that could have been created had the region kept up with the national growth rate.
Page 40
Comme rcial/Se wices Job¡100
Total NewJobs 90 t37 0 I
LO U.S. Growth ratele6 Reeion ShiftleT
Maior Industrv 2010 2017 Percent Net Percent Net
Total Employment I 1 13.44 14,662 -r.23 -1,343
City of Central Point
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services
Management of Companies and
Enterprises
Administrative and Waste Services
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and
Recreation
Accommodation and Food
Services
Other Services (except Public
Administration)
Federal Civilian
Military
State Government
Local Government
Other/S uppressed Industries I e8
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
1.4
0.9r
1.09
0.71
l.l9
0.71
1.36
0.83
0.55
1.28
1.37
0.98
0.93
0.43
0.s9
0.78
0.69
1.39
0.82
0.79
0.65
l.l6
0.71
0.74
0.77
0.6
l.3l
1.34
0.98
0.98
0.43
0.29
0.86
0.69
13.44
13.44
t3.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
t3.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
13.44
2,079
424
298
553
773
712
233
729
190
2,064
44t
-1.45
-14.78
-29.55
-10.72
-3.52
-1.82
-60.s7
-9.23
10.04
2.tt
-3.53
8.1 1
-225
-466
-655
-441
-203
-96
-1,051
-501
142
324
-l 16
662
-32
85
-4
-1,016
629
2
1.08 l 16 1,097
810
239
77
265
940
384
-0.54
4.74
-0.76
-51.42
8.99
0.07
.lee Figure 22 for how specif,rc industries are doing in the Rogue Valley as compared to the
national average. The shift-share column (LO measures the degree to which an industry sector
has ouþerformed the nation within that industry's employment levels during a specified time
period. If the regional growth in an industry ouþaced the change in the national share then there
would be a positive (greater than 1) shift share.
If an industry sector has out-performed in a shift share analysis and the concentration within that
industry also exceeds national averages in a Location Quotient (LQ) analysis, then those
industries are likely to be ones for which the region has exhibited durable comparative
advantages.
Between 2010 and 2017, the region outperformed the nation in nine industries. Of these, mining,
manufacturing, educational services, and accommodation and food services outperformed the
nation by at least eight percent. Mining had the highest percent gain in employment relative to
the nation during the period, however given how little mining industry the area had previously,
this comes out to a gain of only 194 new jobs. The second strongest shift came from
manufacturingat2O.5 percent and with I,414 new jobs.
'e8 The "Other/Suppressed Industries" category portrayed in this table represents a combined total ofthose industries
for which data were unavailable due to confidentiality restrictions. Those industries that are combined include:
Utilities; Wholesale Trade.
Page 4l
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
There are three industries that the region is lagging in significantly: management of Companies
and Enterprises, Information, and State Government. Management of Companies and Enterprisesis a classification that involves employment in companies that run other types of smaller
companies. Although the previous Economic Element indicated that the region was substantially
ahead of the national curve (at 55 percent shift), the region is now significantly behind the
national curve (at negative 60.57 shift). This makes sense given the somewhat remote location of
the region from a major city and the levels of expertise that would typically be required in this
type of industry.
The Information industry includes publishing, software, broadcast, and internet industries. It is
unclear why the region is behind by almost 30 percent; however, it may have to do with the
Southern Oregon region lacking a research university, which would attract younger information
professionals. The relative proximity of Silicon Valley (less than 400 miles away) probably
contributes to a brain-drain of these young workers. The lack of growth in State Governmentjobs makes sense because most of the Oregon governmental offices are in the state capital,
Salem, or other parts of the Willamette Valley.
v Economic Development Context
In addition to measuring economic data, Statewide Planning Goal 9 encourages cities to consider
traits in their local economies that have yet to be numerically qualified. These traits are evaluated
below through an analysis of Central Point's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
23: Central Point's Trendslee
Location, size,
and buying
power of
markets
Relatively low
percentage of large retail
compared to population.
National exposure with
specialty food industry.
Relatively low per-
household income-
Few large employers
within city limits the role
of the City in setring rhe
policy and agenda for
regional economic
development.
Central Point's I-5
interchange (Exit 33) is
an old design with
limited capacity.
If relative wages can
be increased, Central
Point can capítalize
on expanding
population.
If City can add a few
large employers in a
particular sector, the
City will be able to
drive regional policy
in that area.
Expansion ofExit 35
would add an
additional freeway
interchange and
opportunities for key
industries to locate
there.
Failure to capture
proportional growth
over time, especially in
specialty foods.
Capitalizing on this
opportunity will require
a coordinated strategy.
Growth around Exit 35
needs to help economic
development without
threatening the function
ofthe interchange.
Economic
development
efforts and
progmms
Transportation
facilities
Direct communication
and collaboration
between City staff and
local businesses.
City has good freeway
and airport access.
lee See City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 (2013) citing City of Central Point.
Page 42
ThreatsWeaknessesTrait
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Public
facilities and
services
Workforce
development
Regulatory
barriers
City has practical
approach to its public
facility needs and
requirements.
City's workforce has
access to Rogue
Community College
(RCC), Southern Oregon
University (SOU), the
Job Council, and other
training programs.
The Greater Bear Creek
Valley Regional
Problem-Solving Plan
("RPS') should
encourage growth in the
Tolo area and Central
Point could capitalize on
the
City's water is supplied
by the Medford Water
Commission and sewage
treatment is provided by
the Regional Water
Reclamation Facility
operated by the City of
Medford under long-term
agreements.
Regionally, there are few
post-graduate degree
opportunities, no
research university, and
no proactive regional
programs to encourage
college graduates to
locate to the area. High
school drop-outs have
limited employability.
City needs to ensure
that it continues to
have adequate
capacity to sorve
future employment
demands.
Advocate for training
and programs that
directly benefit
Central Point
employers. Support
local schools to
minimize high school
drop-out rates.
Maintaining a good
relationship with the
City of Medford and the
Medford rüater
Commission is
important to avoid
future service disputes
or too large an increase
in rates.
High school drop outs
have limited
employability and
demand
disproportionate
seryrces.
The RPS may require
additional planning
work.
Capitalize on the
opportunity for
targeted employment
growth in the Tolo
atea.
Delays in making the
Tolo area market ready
Page 43
vi. Competitive Position Summary
'When all the regional and localized factors are synthesized, there appear to be at least four targetindustry sectors where the City of Central Point exhibits a strong and durable competitlveposition. These are the same industries identified in the 2013 Economic Element, ánd the
conclusions in 2013 remain accurate in2019.
o The specialty foods cluster that includes Lillie Belle Farms chocolates, Rogue Creamery,and the nearby Seven Oaks Farm just outside Central Point's municipal boundaiy
represents a small but unique opportunity for growth.
o Truck transportation and related support industries pay high wages to City residents and
is a sector that both the Region and the City are well positioned to serve.
o Planned population growth in Central Point in the regional plan is expected to support
expanded retail commercial within the City as the buying power of the City's residential
base expands.
o Planned population growth is also likely to support expanded healthcare services in theCity. Overall, this sector is expected to grow rapidly within the region as exemplified by
the Providence Medical Group building on Front Street. Although existing investments in
Medford hospitals are likely to concentrate much of the regional growth, Central point
has an opportunity to keep pace with the growth in this sector.
Central Point also has some unique spatial characteristics that may support future economic
activities in two other sectors due to the Greater Bear Creek Valley Regìınal Problem-Solving
Plan ("RPS"). Specifically, there are aggregate employment uses and Erickson Air Crane that are
located within the Tolo Urban Reserve Areas. These are both employer types with special needs,
but the areas inclusion in the RPS Plan may present opportunities to work with these employers
for mutual beneht.
vÍi. Assessment of Central Point's Economic Development Potential
The DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook recommends assessing
the City's economic potential based on several factors. ,See Figure 24 for subjective scoring oã
each of Central Point's competitive market advantages and disadvantages.
Central Point is located well in relation to markets and key transportation facilities. It is situated
halfway between two major cities, Portland and San Francisco, is located on Interstate 5, and has
ready access to the Rogue Valley International Airport. The drawbacks are that it is not located
close to a major metro area and most flights from the airport require connecting flights at a major
hub.
Central Point has excellent public facilities like water and sewer. There are rarely any service
disruptions.
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Central Point has fair access to labor markets. Its relative isolation from a major population
center does increase costs and decreases its ready access. The same is true with materials andenergy, aside from some natural resources like timber. But, as Section 5, Subsection iv
demonstrates above, the Southern Oregon region is competitive in several labor markets.
Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Potential
Scores: l: poor, 2 :fair, 3 : good, 4 : excellent
Central Point has good access to necessary support services. What businesses cannot get
internally or in near-by Medford, they can get at a nearby major city like portland, or probaù'ly
f,rnd online.
Central Point has few pollution control issues, although the wildfire smoke in the surnmer
months does harm to the local economy and industries like tourism.
The City has fair access to education and technical training. The area hosts both Rogue
Community College (RCC) and Southern Oregon University (SOU). Other than that, most
students must travel either to the Oregon Institute of Technology in nearby Klamath Falls, to a
state school like the University of Oregon and Oregon State University in the Willamette Valley,
or out of state altogether.
Lastly, Central Point has good access to other market advantages, such as a ready supply of land
in the Rogue Valley and surrounding communities.
Description Score
Location relative to markets
Availability of key transportation facilities
Key public facilities (water, sewer, etc.)
Labor Market (cost and access)
Materials and energy (availability and cost)
Necessary support services
Pollution control issues
Education and technical training
Other (such as land availability)
3
aJ
4
2
2
J
J
2
a-l
Total 25
Page 45
City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
vÍÍi. Central Point's Projected Job Growth
Next, a forecast for Central Point's future job growth needs to be calculated. This is key to
determining how much land is needed per industry category in Central Point through 2039. Thefollowing analysis is based on Central Point's population compared to the regional population.
That population percentage is then applied to the regional job forecast.
For example, given that the population of Jackson County in 2018 was 219,270200 and the
population of Josephine County is 87 ,487 ,20
r and Central Point has 1 9, I 0 1 peopl'e,2}2 the City of
Central Point currently has approximately 6.22 percent of the regional populaiion. As a result,we can assume that Central Point will capture approximately 6.22 percent of jobs created
regionally in the year 2019.203
By 2039, Central Point will grow by approximately 7,216 residents.2oa This means that by 2039,
Central Point will have approximately 7.06 percent of the regional population because Jackson
County will have 264,957 people and Josephine County 107,470 people. See Figure 25. As a
result, we can assume that Central Point will capture approximately 7.06 percent ıf¡oUr created
regionally in the year 2039.20s
But we need to know more than how many jobs are created in the year 2019 or in the year2039-we need to know how many jobs will be created every year between 2019 and 2039 to
get the total number of employment acres Central Point is going to need. Unfortunately, we only
have the regional job data for those individual years, the regional and city population data, and,what we have calculated to be Central Point's share of the region's job growtñ. However, if we
take an average of Central Point's population share (that is, the average of 6.22 percent and,7.06
percent), we can estimate the average percentage of the regional population that Central point
will capture over the next 20 years, which is 6.64 percent. As a result, we can assume that
Central Point will capture approximately 6.64 percent of the new jobs created regionally between
2019 and2039.
Using the data in Figure 25, we can apply Central Point's projected population rates to forecast
the number of jobs that Central Point will likely gain in each industry from 2019 to 2039. SeeFigure 26 for the forecasted job numbers. Ultimately these numbers show that by 2039, Central
200 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jaclcson County Coordinated population Forecast 20Igthrough 2068 47 (June 30,201S), available at:
waming).
ordinated Population Forecast 20 I 5through 2065 33 (June 2015), available at:
(PDF warning).
through 2068. Population Forecast 2018
'o' Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population,not that it has an equal percentage oftotaljobs now existing.""'That is Central Point's forecasted 2039 population less the estimated 2018 population from Figure 25 (26,317 -19,101 : 7,216).
'ot Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population,
not that it has an equal percentage oftotaljobs now existing.
Page 46
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Point will add 1,948 new jobs. This means that Central Point will need employment land to
house these new workers.
re 25: Central Point's rate
Central Point's Population2 I 7
Jackson County's Population2 t 6
t8
City/County Estimated 2019 Estimated 2039
Average
Popualtion Share,
20tg-203g2rs
1 9,1 01
2t9,270
86,423
26,317
264,951
97,377
Total Population of Both Counties 305,693 362,328
Central Point's Capture Rate of Job Grorvth 6.2Vo 7.3o/"6.8o/o
Source:2019 PRC Coordinated Population Forecâst, Jackson md Josephine Counties
26: Central Point's forecast
Construction & Natural Resources
Manufacturing
Transportation & Utlilities
Wholesale Trade
4,290
1,900
660
200
1,960
640
289
128
45
14
Subtotal Industrial Jobs 7 476
Retail Trade
Financial
Services (professional, bus iness, health,
private education, hospitality, infornntion)14,500 980
S ubtotal Cornme rciaVServices t7 00 t55
InstittÍional/Go vemment
Other
1,640
132
43
-t
llt
207
Based on the foregoing data, Central Point will need enough employment lands over the next 20
years for approximately 1,948 new jobs.
Southern Oregonrs
20-YearJob
Forecast2o2
Central Pointrs Total Job
Grorvth Capture at 6.8Vo
of Regional Forecast
Sector
NewJobs 1
Page 47
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Section 6: Land Demand
Introduction This section projects the City of Central Point's short term (2019-2024) and long-
term (20 I 9 -2039) supply of land needed to satisfy employment proj ections.
Having reviewed economic trends on a national, state, regional, and local level, it is important to
use that information to identify economic development opportunities that are likely to expand or
locate in or near Central Point within the next twenty years. Understanding the types of sites
needed will enable the City to successfully implement its economic development objectives.
Legal Requirements Central Point must have adequate supplies of land to meet employment
needs for a range of employment opportunities. These lands must be adequate to capitalize on the
City's economic opportunities in terms of both quantity and type.
Central Point is required to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses
that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand within the city's urban growth boundary.
OAR 660-009-0015. A use or category of use will be reasonably expected to expand or locate to
Central Point if it possesses the appropriate locational factors for the use or category of use.
Economíc Growth Rate Forecøst
It is expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a
whole across all industries over the next twenty years and may reasonably be expected to exceed
regional growth rates in target industries. Central Point's population is projected to grow at l.5Yo
through 2039, see Figure 17 supra.
However, consistent with the City's competitive positions described above there are at least three
sectors where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out-
perform the overall regional growth. Those sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking
and warehousing, and retail. It is in these three industry sectors that the State's regional forecast
is appropriately adjusted upward to reflect localized opportunities (See Figne 27).
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing
This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth
assumptions in the manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this
niche sector but may buoy a slight edge over regional growth rates. However, exceptional growth
in this sector is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in
the future mateializes, then that may warrant a re-evaluation of the overall manufacturing
employment growth forecast in the Economic Element.
ii. Trucking and Warehousing
The trucking and warehousing industry is strong regionally with higher than average
emplo¡rment concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much
Page 48
City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
higher than regional or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents
an excellent opportunity to expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relativèty nignwages. Also, this industry has potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry th-atcreates the potential to ouþace overall regional growth to a modest degree.
Central Point is also uniquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regionalcomparative advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek ValÈy Regional plan
contemplates that the "Tolo" area is well situated for this type of economic activìty north ofInterchange 35 which already serves industrial traffic to White City and aggregate resourcetraffic in the area. There is very little residential and commercial development around theinterchange. No new residential development is contemplated in the regional plan, so this area iswell positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded transportation and warehousing
USES.
However, the Tolo area is constrained because of a relative lack of water service. Any attempt totake advantage of this area would require a large investment to increase water and piovid" óth".necessary utilities.
iii. Retail
Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point. Retail trade and associatedemployment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth isessentially consumer growth. Thus, it is reasonable to expect thaf retail tr;de in Cential point
will outpace the two-county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average populationgrowth as set out in the County's coordinated population forecast for the City. From an industrycategonzation versus land use perspective there are some small but important differences. Landuse terminology included within the retail category includes restàurants and bars whilerestaurants are categorizedin the leisure and hostility industry sectors, so growth in this sector isappropriately consistent with the retail uses in both categonzationschemes such as a boutique.
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry
Figure 27 depicts a reasonable lO-year planned growth rate by industry for the City of CentralPoint. This growth rate utilizes the state's regional forecast for all industries through 2027 andshows how much each industry is likely to grow both statewide and in the City of Central point.
Page 49
State Yo Change,
20fla027Sector
Cenûal Potnt%o
2017-2027
atual Resouces and Mining
Consfuction
Manuâchning
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Wholesale
Ret¿il
Transportation, Warehousinf & Utilities
Professional & Business Services
Financial
Other Services
Information
Iæistne and Hospitality
Total Private
r0.2
17.0%
4.9%
10.5
8.1
9.4
17.3
l3.l
%
o//11
t2.
11.
17.
6.
t%
s%
J
5
9
0%
0%
13.0%
t5
10.0%
0.0%
9.0%
6.0%
25.
l2
23
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
27: Central Point Growth Rate
This is the best and most recent data avallable for regional industry growth projections over themid-term (10 years). This economic element assumes that the rates will rem;in constant through2039.
i. Site RequÍrements Analysis
Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. The Economic Element and Buildable LandInventory essentially breaks the City's employment land inventory by employment category.Within these general development pattern types, the Economic Element analyzes demanJandsupply of large, medium and small sites. In practice, there are no discrete size breaks thatdifferentiate between large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze different sizesbecause the site requirements do vary with firm size. Figure 28 describes ihe qualitative siterequirements for each of the general development pattern.
206 The data in the middle column is from the Gail Kiles
Employment Department, Oregon Employment Industry
Krumenauer, Senior Economic Analyst at the Oregon
Projections 20 I 7-2027 (Itne 26,20 I 8), available at:
Page 50
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
28: General Pattern Site ents
ii. Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements
In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the site requirements specific to
central Point' s target industries w arrant more detailed consideration.
Largel
8-30
Large commercial sites tend to cluster within larger blocks
of commercial that can be 100 acres or more. Outdoor
storage sales can demand very large sites. These users will
anchor commercial areas and attract customers for medium
and small users. Must be located adjacent to and visible
from maior arterials and state highways.
Med./a1 Medium commercial uses can locate wìthin larger blocks of
commercial or may function as a stand-alone community
commercial use. Must be located adjacent to and visible
from major arterials and collectors if not stat highways
(!
o!()
oO
()ú
Retail commercial
uses typically
require all urban
facilities and
services such as
water, sewer, storm
drainage, police and
fire protection,
electricity, natural
gas, and modern
communications
systems
Retail commercial
development requires
premium access and
excellent visibility for
customer attraction.
Foot traffic and access
to public
transportation can also
be important.Small/
0.5-2 Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by
medium and large retail commercial. These tend to be
specialty sales that serve niche retail markets.
Largel
3.5-12
uses will require excellent access to the
regional transportation network because they have large
workforces that require capacity in the system. Large offiãe
uses can locate in commercial or industrial areas depending
on the specific reqgirements ofthe enterprise.
Large office
Med./
1 -3.5
Medium office uses that require customer significant access
will seek out and compete for commercial zoned space.
Other medium office uses may demand business park space
intermixed with light industrial uses.
()(J
go
Office uses typically
require all urban
facilities and
services such as
water, sewer, storm
drainage, police and
fire protection,
electricity, natural
gas, and modem
communications
systems
Consumer driven
office users like
branch banks &
insurance sales must
have good visibility
and access. Other
ofltce uses only need
reasonably direct
access to the regional
transpodation
network. Airport
access can be essential
Small/
0.2s-l
Small office uses are the uses that "fill in" commercial and
industrial areas because their needs are the most varied and
requirements the most flexible
Largel
r s-300 Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on
regional, national or internal scales. Factors that affect
demand depends on the very specific requirements of the
enterprise that are difficult to predict a priori.
Med/
3-14 Medium industrial uses tend to be price sensitive and seek
out space within business or offìce parks. They sometimes
require property ownership that will also result in low real
estate overhead in relation to the enterprise
!
Industrial uses may
or may not require
all urban services.
However, many
industrial uses will
have very specific
and large demands
for certain services
like power or
sewage capacity
Access for freight is a
top priority and may
be via truck and./or
rail. Industrial uses
sometimes accept
more remote locations
to avoid congestion
and that support
freight movements.
Airport access is often
rmportant.
Small/
0.5-2.5
Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is
a priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight
movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites
themselves.
Public Facilitv andType Service
Requirements
Size
Cat.l
Typical
Site
Size
(acres)
Transportation
Facilit-v
Requirements;
Access to customers
and workforce
Discussion of Site Requirements by Size Category
Page 5 1
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Specialty Fo od Pro ducts Manufacturing
The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in specialty food product manufacturing in
Central Point have small retail storefronts that accompany their manufacturing businesses. The
sites are generally small and there is limited room to expand operations on the existing sites. The
segment of Highway 99 where these uses are located have good access to I-5. From there they
have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99. However, the narrow strip between Highway
99 and the railroad tracks creates a practical/physical limit on future expansion. Central Point
should keep lines of communication open with these businesses to assure that the site
requirements for any expansion are well understood by staff and policy makers.
Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Servíces
These businesses require both office space and trucking facilities that are often co-located. Site
requirements may also include space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver
accommodations and inter-modal freight handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is
typically required. Adequate expansion area is often a factor when selecting a site so that
expansion can be accommodated without the need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate
freeway is essential and must be located in areas that are relatively free from congestion to
enable efficient freight movements. Aside from transportation facilities, power, and modern
communications, some transportation uses may not necessarily require the full complement of
other urban facilities and services.
Retail Trade
Convenient access to I-5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements from I-5 in Central
Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and may raise site
requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street artenal is good and
access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts regional
shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and medium retailers cannot be met. The
anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and medium
retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor.
As the City's residential neighborhoods expand to the west and north there is a need for
additional retall, and office, development to serve the particular commercial needs, both
commercial and office, of the surrounding neighborhoods. The design and size of these
commercial centers need to be based on the ultimate long-term density and arca of the
neighborhood and designed to complement the neighborhood's residential character. The
location and design of these commercial centers need to support and encourage pedestrian access
from the serving neighborhood. For land use planning purposes these centers are referred to as
Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
Long-Term Land Demønd Estimate
Page 52
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
This section calculates Central Point's land demand estimate for the next 20 years. Figure 21
above provides the total number of jobs forecasted to be created in Southern Oregon through
2039. Figure 25 calculates that Central Point should capture approximately 6.64 percent of these
new jobs. Figure 26calculates thatthis equals approximately 1,915 new jobs for Central Point
and allocates them by industry.
Employnent land demand estimates can be projected using a vanety of techniques, but this
Economic Element calculates the land needs by converting the projected population growth rates
into projected employees and then using average employee space needs and floor area ratios to
project future land needs. ,See Figure 32 for the estimate of employee density per acre. Then
these land needs are aggregated by the development pattern type demanded by each industry so
that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply calculations.
Each of these steps requires assumptions about expected ratios and land development
efficiencies.
iii. Estimate of Needed Employment Lands
In order to estimate the number of acres needed by 2039 for all Central Point's industries, this
section uses an employee per acre ratio. According to the DLCD's Industrial & Other
Employrnent Lands Analysis Guidebook, there are typically 8-12 industrial sector jobs per acre,
14-20 commercial and service sector jobs per acre, 6-_10 institutional and government jobs per
acre, and 6-10 other employment sector jobs per acre.'ot
29:
r
N
Er:ì
¡o
ld
Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039
Land Use Classification Number of Jobs22a
Jobs/Buildable Acrc
Ratio f¡om DLCD225
Employment
Buildable Acrcs
Needed2ó
Existiry Buildable
1{Ctt
Build¡ble Acrtage
Sumlus/Shortape
t,658
4,407
892
740
8
t4
6
6
Total 7,697 ,t
476
I, 155
llt
207
8
t4
6
6
59
83
t8
34
87
6l
27
(21)
(l 8)
(34
Total 1.948 142 148 øTt
Note: Erployment Ctross Acres Needed calculated using Buildable Acres adju sted for right-o f-way (25yo\
Figure 30 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how
many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD's
employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres cuffently in the
City. As a result, Central Point will need47 new net acres in the aggregateby 2039.
However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial,
institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add
20t DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook,2-46
Page 53
Indutrial
Conmercial/Service
[nstitutional/Gov't
Other Services & SeF
Industrial
Commercia[/Sewice
Inshnrtional/Gov't
Other Services & SelÊ
City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
approxìmately 73 gross acres of commercial, institutional, and other land types of lands by
2039.2o8,See Figure 30.
30: Gross Acres Needed2oe
Another way to estimate the land demand is to compare the above result to the conclusions
reached in other parts of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. For example, Central point,s
Economic Element 2013-2033 found that the City would need between 59 and.67 acres by
2033 ' See also Central Point's Land (Jse Element 2018-2038, which made the same findings.
The previous Economic Element estimated that Central Point needs approximately l3 acres of
employment lands per 1,000 residents.2l0 Currently, Central Point hãs approxirnately 19,101people2lr and the 2039 population is projected io be around 26,3n.5f2 ihi, in.r"ase of
approximately 7,216 residents means that Central Point would need a total of 93.8 additional
acres for employment purposes in the long-term.2t' B.rt, because there is a surplus of
approximately 23Industrial site acres, Central Point actually needs 65 acres.2la
Conclusion In conclusion, based on Central Point's projected job capture rate, the
Comprehensive Plan's previous calculations, and the estimated ratio of residents to land use
needs, Central Point has a forecasted demand of 65 to 74 additional net acres for employment
pulposes for the 20L9 to 2039 planning period.
Short-Term Land Demand Estimate
By quartering the numbers from the long-term estimate, the short-term land employment use
needs can be determined. As a result, Central Point will need 18 additional net acres for the
next five years (2019-2024).,See Figure 30.
Inventory of Employment Lands
After identifying economic opportunities and estimating land demand, the next step in the Goal 9
'ot That is, (21.17 t4)+ (18.1667) + (33.8333) : (73.1714).
'oe 5"" Figure 29. Rounded to the nearest tenih.2r0 Central Point Land Use Element 2018 at27.2tt Id. atg.
212 Population Research Center, Portland State Univers ity, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region47 Documents (May 2018).
''3 Thar is, 1ççzàloi -l 9, I 0 I yl 000)* I 3 acres)
"o That is, 93.8 acres - 28.395.
Page 54
Grross Enploynrent
Acres Needed,2019-
2039Sector Nee 2019-2024Needed2039
Short-TermGmss Acr¡sNewBuildable Acres
2t
l8
34
27
z)
43
7
6
llOther/Uncovered
Cornrrprcial/Service
Institutional/Government
Total nt 74 93 23
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
process is to evaluate the current land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which there is
a projected demand over the next twenty years. Central Point updates its general buildable landsinformation on a regular basis and this information has been used as the rturtitrg point to analyze
the land base from a more specific Goal 9 perspective.
The Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory @LI): 2019-2039 has been published by theCity of Central Point as a separate document. The above-conclusion that Ceìtral point needs
65 to 73 additional net acres by 2039 considers the findings of the BLI, including that there is
a slight surplus of industrial lands.
i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency
The City of Central Point's current built employment land base has relatively limitedredevelopment potential. According to the BLI, the City only has 8.95 acres of total commercial
lands and 36.18 acres of industrial lands that are redevelopable.2ls This conhguration does notlend itself well to redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the supply and demandfor sites over a twenty-year period because this would require the demolition and ággregation ofparcels. V/hile this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is ""lik.ly to beeconomically viable in Central Point on a scale that would alter long-term supply and demandprojections for employment lands. This quantitative determination dols not mean that there arenot good qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along
Highway 99.
There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along Table Rock Road.2l6 Severalparcels are zoned residential and that are large enough to be be developed for employment uses.Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is in ureu *ñ..é relatively
inexpensive small industrial sites are available to own and where there are limited development
requirements that add overhead. In some ways, this area is important employment tan¿ for
certain types of firms that have ever fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost-
effective. As such, aggressive redevelopment planning policies for this area may seem to be agreat aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and unintended economic consequences.
Moreover, without relatively massive financial incentives for significant redevelopmènt thatwould change the overall quality of development in this area, lessei redevelopment policies tendto have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development projecti that would
trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties.
ii. Vacant Lands
According to the BLI, most of the City.'s vacant acreage consists of Medium Industrial lands, aswell as Large and Medium Retail.2rT The City hãs barely any vacant acreage allocatedpredominantly to office use of any kind. It also has little acreage dedicated to small retail.
However, according the analysis in this Economic Element, Central Point's economy will likely
215 central Point Buildable Lands Inventory @LI): 20 t 9-2039 at6, Tables 3 and 4.
?tlSu Central Point Buildable Lands n ánìory @LI): 20t9-2039 att3.2t7 Id. at 7, Figure 3.
Page 55
City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
have its strongest growth in industries that require retail and office space. As a result, the City
needs to increase its buildable lands in these categories.
Further, according to the Br,rr^most of the vacant number of lots are in small retail (even though
there is little total acreage)3l8 Fu.ther, there are few vacant lots of any kind for offices, larleretail, and large industrial.2tn As a result, the City will need more parcels for offices of eveiy siãeand for large industrial and large retail.
Another consideration in the employment land demand and current employment land inventory
is the spatial relationship between existing inventory and future demand. As the City's residential
neighborhoods (UGB) expand to the west and north additional employrnent lands will be neededfor Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers. As would be expected the City,scurrent emplo¡rrnent land inventory (planned and zoned) is not spatially appropriate for thãsenew expanding neighborhoods, and in terms of inventory are considered ì*."r, supply.
Consequently, there will be a need to discount some of these lands when addressing the suppíy
need for new Pedestrian oriented Neighborhood commercial centers.
iii. Conclusion
A stable and diverse economy that provides access to emplo¡rment opportunities for CentralPoint's growing population is fundamental to providing a livable .o--,rnity consistent with theCity's vision and preferred future. Based on the analysis herein, the City wiil experience growth
across all employment categories and is particularly well positioned io experiìn.. gro*th i'specialty foods, trucking and transportation, healthcare and retail services. Èo*.urr, proactiveand effective strategies will be necessary to atffact, retain and expand a diverse businessenvironment to provide for the City's employment needs as they change over time. Toaccomplish this, the City recognizes the following considerations as .5"tttiul to fostering aneffective economic development program in Central point:
Be Effective
economrc development actions necessary to diversify the city's economic base requires
an understanding of,and a careful balance between regional cooperation and competition.It is important to understand and pro-actively participate in the broader national, state,
and regional economlc development discussions. Participating in regional economic
development programs like Southern Oregon Regional Development, Inc (SOREDI) and
the Rogue Valley Workforce Development Council can improve the regional economrc
climate anda strong regional economy will benefit all communities within the region.
Most importantly, to be an effective participant the City must recognize its competitive
advantage within the region and compete for those economic development opportunitieswithin the region for which Central Point is well positioned.
2
The City will need to provide adequate land supply in
development site characteristics to effectively respond
terms of both acreage and
to business development needs
218
219
Id.
Id.
Page 56
I
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
This need is particularly true for Neighborhood Commercial lands as the City expands its
urban growth boundary. At this time, the City does not have enough employrnent lands to
meet the projected economic needs over the next20 years. Population growth and job
forecasts indicate that the City will need more lands for Office, Retail and Institutional
employment uses with a focus on development sites suitable for medium and large office
and retail uses and availability of vacant buildings for expanding small businesseì (i.e.
flex-space). Over the 2019-2039 planning period, the City will need to expand the UGB
to ensure an adequate 5-year and2}-year supply of buildable emplo¡rment land (Table
30).
. The
economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities for which the City is well
positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic economic forces require
the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. They
also require the City to engage in sustained analysis of national, state, and local economic
conditions. Only when the City is actively monitoring its economy will it be poised to
take advantage of good opportunities and guide the community through any turbulent
times.
Furthermore, the pursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance between
short-term and long-terTn economic objectives. The City recognizes that some
opportunities may warrant short-term incentives to achieve longer term employment orproperty tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long-term
benefit and may not warrant the short-term f,rscal cost of incentives.
J
Page 57
City of Central Point Comprehensive plan Economic Element 2019
Section 7: Goals and Policies
Statewide Planning Goal 9 requires that comprehensive plans and policies contribute to a stable
and healthy economy in all regions of the state. This section sets forth the City of Central point,s
economic development goals and policies.
Goal l To actively promote a strong, diversified, and-sustainable local economy, that
reinforces central Point's "small town feer"220 and family orientation- while
preserving or enhancing the quality of life in the community as a place to live,
work, and play.
Because this Economic Element concludes that there will be economic
uncertainty in the short-term, it is importantthat Central Point work to diversify
and strengthen its economy. By continuing to analyze economic trends, Centrai
Point will be able to continue growing strong throughout the 2019-2039 planning
period.
Goø|2 meaningful incentives to encourage and support economicTo create
development;
Goal3
GoøL4
Goal 5
Central Point has historically been a bedroom community where people live butwork elsewhere. In order to maintain a strong tax base and to .tr.,ltè continuedeconomic prosperity, Central Point must take an active role in encouraging
economic development.
To encourage and promote the development, redevelopment, and enhancement ofretail and office areas to achieve a vibrant shopping, entertainment, living and
working experience in the downtown area.
This goal is important because Central Point needs a vibrant downtown in order to
ensure future economic prosperity. Further, based on the current BLI and theprojected land use needs, Central Point is going to need targeted redevelopment
strategies to encourage these types of activities in the future.
To encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, andstate agencies, and local businesses concerning economic development,
education, and workforce development.
The City cannot reach its goals without the assistance of others. As a result, the
City needs to be receptive to suggestions and aid from others and also needs to be
active in communicating its needs and plans.
To encourage and support growth, particularly in the targeted industries (specialty
food manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors).
'20 As defined in the Urbanization Element of the Comprehensive plan
Page 58
t
City of Central Point
Goal6
Goal T
Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
These targeted industries are where the City could make strides. It is important
that the City help maintain and grow these industries now and in the future.
To maintain at all times an adequate supply of suitable short-term (five-year)
employment lands.
Central Point does not have an adequate short-term supply of lands for
institutional/govemment and other employrnent types. As a result, the City should
plan to add to the land supply in the near future.
To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual
identifying and monitoring economic development strategies and programs
available to the City.
GoøL8 Create a positive environment for industrial, commercial and institutional job
growth and development by maintaining an adequate land supply; providing a
local development review process that is predictable, responsive, and efficient;
and delivering high quality public facilities and services.
Goal9 Assure, through the UGB process, that adequate commercíul lands are planned
and designøtedfor the development of pedestrían oriented neíghborhood
commercial centers to sewe the City's new residentiat neighborhoods.
The City's economic development goals will be managed through the following policies:
Policy 1: Participation
The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming ofaltemative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including educat-ion
and workforce development that are consistent with the City's economic development goals.
Policy 2: Refine Policies
The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and f,rscal policies as they
relate to economic development to ensure that the City's economic development programming
can be effectively implemented.
Policy 3: Monitor Long-Term Consequences
Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can
be demonstrated that the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and
the long-terrn consequences are determined to be beneficial to the city.
Page 59
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Policy 4: Small Businesses
The City shall pursue and encourage development of leasable employment buildings (i.e. flex-
space) to create opportunities to expand, retain and attract small businesses to Central Point's
employment districts.
Policy 5: Business fnnovation
Encourage innovation, research, development, and commercialization of new technologies,
products, and services through responsive regulations and public sector approaches.
Policy 6: Tolo Area
The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, continue planning the Exit 35 area-also
called "AÍea CP-18 (Tolo)"-in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic
opportunities, especially for transportation-based economic activity and truck/rail freight support
services. This area also contains the aeronautics manufacturing company Erickson Air Crane and
serves aggregate uses; these uses have many specific and unique dimensions that should be
carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations applicable to this area need to account for
the site requirements of firms in these sectors. Because the area is currently constrained as a
result of a lack of access to water, the City should begin planning how to make water more
readily available so as to make these lands available for more economic development.
Policy 7: Monitor Regulations
The City shall periodically evaluate its regulations for employment related development,
particularly as it relates to targeted industries, as well as compatibility with adjacent non-
employment lands to ensure that regulations are consistent with applicable best practices.
Regulations found to no longer be appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable
thereafter.
Policy 8: Adequate Short-Term Supply
The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and
transportation facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of
competitive short-term buildable lands sufficient to meet employment needs within a five-year
period, particularly for the retail, specialty foods, professional, health care, and trucking sectors.
Policy 9: Prepare for Long-Term Needs
The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short-term employment lands in the medium and
large site categories equivalent to the twenty-year demand for those categories. The supply of
short-term employment land shall be reviewed and updated every four years consistent with the
Portland State University Population Research Center Coordinated Population Forecasting
schedule. When it is determined that the supply of land as measured in terms of number of sitei
and/ot acreage in the medium and large site categories is inadequate to serve the twenty-year
Page 60
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
needs then the City shall amend its UGB to include additional short-term (5-year) employment
lands.
Policy 10: Pedestrian oriented Neighborhood commercÍal centers.
As the City's expands the UGB it will include in the land use mix adequate commercial lands tofor the development of Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers desìgned to compliment the
physical character and encourage neighborhood pedestrian use. Adequaıy ofthe acreage neededfor Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers will be guided by the Regional Plan land use
allocation.
Page 6l