HomeMy WebLinkAboutjune_4_2019_pc_packet52 CITY OF CENTRAL POINT PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA June 4, 2019 6:00 p.m.
I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER
II. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE
III. ROLL CALL
Planning Commission members, Mike Oliver (chair), Tom Van Voorhees, Amy Moore,
Jim Mock, Pat Smith, Kay Harrison, Chris Richey
IV. CORRESPONDENCE
V. MINUTES
Review and approval of the May 7, 2019 Planning Commission meeting minutes.
VI. PUBLIC APPEARANCES
VII. BUSINESS
1. Public hearing to consider a modification to a condition of approval for the Smith
Crossing Site Plan and Architectural Review. The condition addresses the timing of
building permit issuance for buildings in Phase 2 of the 245-unit multifamily
development relative to completion of the Twin Creeks Rail Crossing.
Applicant: PCMI, Inc. File No. SPAR-17002.
2. Public hearing to consider the 2019-2039 Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI),
an adjunct to the Central Point Comprehensive Plan Land Use Element.
Applicant: City of Central Point. File No. CPA-19002.
3. Public hearing to consider an update the Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic
Element based on revised population forecast and buildable lands information.
Applicant: City of Central Point; File No. CPA-19003.
VIII. DISCUSSION
IX. ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEWS X. MISCELLANEOUS XI. ADJOURNMENT
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City of Central Point Planning
Commission Minutes
May 7, 2019
I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER AT 6:00 P.M.
II. ROLL CALL
Commissioners, Mike Oliver (chair), Amy Moore, Tom Van Voorhees, Jim
Mock, Pat Smith and Kay Harrison were present. Also in attendance were: Tom Humphrey, Community Development Director, Stephanie Holtey, Principal
Planner, and Karin Skelton, Planning Secretary.
PLEDGE OF ALLEGIENCE
III. CORRESPONDENCE
Letter from Jim and Jill Brown
IV. MINUTES Amy Moore made a motion to approve the minutes. Kay Harrison seconded the
motion. ROLL CALL: Tom Van Voorhees, yes; Kay Harrison, yes; Amy Moore, yes;
Pat Smith, yes; Jim Mock, yes. Motion passed.
V. PUBLIC APPEARANCES
There were no public appearances.
VI. BUSINESS
Tom Humphrey introduced Pat Smith as the newest member of the Planning Commission.
VII. DISCUSSION
A. Preliminary Residential UGB Mapping Update/Discussion
Principal Planner, Stephanie Holtey reviewed the two Residential Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) Amendment scenarios which were presented at the April 2, 2019
Planning Commission meeting. She said the city has determined it needs 305 acres of residential land along with 54 acres of park land. She stated modifications have been
made to reflect input from the Planning Commission, the Citizen’s Advisory Committee,
the City Council and general citizen comments. She said the mapping alternative 1A had been the preferred choice by everyone. However, she stated the City Council directed
staff to include properties west of the Taylor West Master Plan area to include property
owned by Jim and Jill Brown on Heritage Road. 3
Planning Commission Meeting
May 7, 2019 Page 2
If including these properties exceeded the 305 acres of land, they preferred reductions to
the proposed UGB expansion area on the east side of the City in CP-2B.
The commissioners wanted to know if the property owners to the west of the Taylor West
group have expressed a desire to be included in the UGB. Mr. Humphrey said some had,
however all property owners would receive notice and would have opportunity to speak at the Public Hearings.
They discussed the required agricultural buffers and how that would be addressed through
the development process.
Mr. Humphrey said there would be a traffic analysis done. The commissioners discussed
the extension of Gebhard Road to Pine Street. They expressed a preference to see both
the Beebe Road extension across Bear Creek in addition to Gebhard’s connection with Pine Street.
Ms. Holtey reviewed the process for the UGB Amendment and the different steps that were required. She said she would be meeting with DLCD to get feedback.
Mr. Oliver opened the meeting for public comments.
Katy Mallams, Heritage Road Ms. Mallams asked for clarification of the 54 acres of parkland and whether Boes Park
comprised the entire 54 acres. Ms. Holtey replied Boes Park was approximately 24 acres and other park locations would be identified as a function of development. Ms. Mallams stated the Browns’ letter mentioned an agreement regarding agricultural buffers and
asked for clarification. Mr. Humphrey explained that when the Browns’ property was included with the Taylor West group, the agricultural buffer would be on their property.
He said the intention of the agricultural buffers was to minimize the impact between
residential land and farmland.
Larry Martin, Grant Road Mr. Martin said he was in the Taylor West group of landowners. He said that because the
group would be annexing into the city as a unit, it would facilitate a more efficient
development of the land as a whole. Additionally he said the group would need to do a new master plan and could include the other property owners who wanted to become part
of the group. Russell Kockx, Grant Road
Mr. Kockx said he wanted to go on record to say he approves of the modifications to Mapping Alternative 1A.
Sam Inkley Mr. Inkley said he supports the new map.
The Commissioners asked about the next Portland State University (PSU) forecast and how that might impact the UGB Amendment. Ms. Holtey responded saying if additional
lands were needed in the future it would be addressed at that time. She said the agreement with Jackson County stipulated to a 5 year time period between any major UGB amendments.
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Planning Commission Meeting
May 7, 2019 Page 3
Ms. Holtey displayed the link to the City’s website and explained how to get information
regarding the UGB Amendment.
The Commissioners asked what the timeline was for the UGB Amendment. Ms. Holtey
said the application should be submitted sometime this summer and it should hopefully be
complete this year. The noticing will happen when the public hearings are scheduled.
Tom Van Voorhees made a motion to approve the modifications to the alternative 1A map of the UGB amendment. Jim Mock seconded the motion. ROLL CALL: Tom Van
Voorhees, yes; Kay Harrison, yes; Amy Moore, yes; Pat Smith, yes; Jim Mock, yes.
Motion passed.
B. Employment Buildable Lands Inventory Discussion
Ms. Holtey gave an overview of the Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (Employment BLI). She stated it was last updated in 2013. She explained this is not a policy document. It is an inventory of available buildable lands within the city for
employment use. She reviewed the current inventory of available land. She said the information will be used to evaluate the city’s employment opportunities. The BLI is
based on the county assessor’s database combined with the City’s building permit
information.
Ms. Holtey said there were 2 categories of employment land. Vacant land and redevelopment land. She explained the methodology involved in identifying the available land. She reviewed the comprehensive plan designations and their abbreviations and
definitions. She stated she will amend the tables to define the designations for the public hearing draft to make it more clear. She said the first step is to identify which is vacant
land and which is redevelopment land. She showed the total amount and distribution of
the current available land.
She showed a map identifying the location of buildable employment acreage. She said the second part of the methodology evaluates the size of the available parcels breaking
them down into small, medium and large designations.
She said the Economic Element will use this information in its analysis of economic
opportunities and the City’s capacity to accommodate employment growth. Currently the
city has about 147 buildable employment acres. Most is industrial land and very little office land.
The commissioners discussed the different designations and zones and what the city might need in the future.
Mike Oliver asked if there were any citizen comments.
Russell Kockx, Grant Road Mr. Kockx asked how the property around the new railroad crossing was zoned. Mr.
Humphrey said it was zoned north and south of the crossing for commercial use. The commissioners discussed possible uses they would like to see implemented in those
locations. 5
Planning Commission Meeting
May 7, 2019 Page 4
Amy Moore made a motion to move the Employment Buildable Lands Inventory to a public hearing. Kay Harrison seconded the motion. ROLL CALL: Tom Van
Voorhees, yes; Kay Harrison, yes; Amy Moore, yes; Pat Smith, yes; Jim Mock, yes.
Motion passed.
C. Economic Element Discussion
Tom Humphrey introduced Garrett West from the City attorney’s office. He said Mr. West has rewritten the existing Economic Element to make is more readable and clear.
He reviewed the history of the Economic Element.
Garrett West explained the process of evaluating the economy. He said he used
information about national economic trends and projections by economists. He stated currently the national economy is doing well, however there is expected to be a slight
downturn in the near future. He said overall the City should do well and grow economically. He said although future economic conditions cannot be accurately predicted, strategic planning for the long term has the potential to benefit economic
development in the city and surrounding area.
Mr. West reviewed national economic trends, state economic trends and economic trends
in Southern Oregon. He then reviewed the City of Central Point’s economic trends saying the city‘s population is fast–growing and relatively young. He added according to
the PSU population forecast the City is expected to grow at a relatively fast pace and by 2039 it is estimated that approximately 7 percent of the county’s population will live in Central Point. He said the city should prepare to have its population grow by almost 38%
over the next 20 years. He reviewed the projected population rates and said the city will need enough employment lands over the next 20 years for approximately 1915 new jobs.
The city does not have enough employment lands to meet the projected economic needs
of the next 20 years.
He reviewed the goals and policies of the Economic Element. The commissioners
discussed the city’s current development, different types of businesses and their impact on the community. They discussed future possibilities for the downtown area and ways
to incentivize the development of attractive businesses.
Mike Oliver asked if there were any citizen comments
There were no comments.
Amy Moore made a motion to move the Economic Element to a public hearing. Jim Mock seconded the motion. ROLL CALL: Tom Van Voorhees, yes; Kay Harrison, yes;
Amy Moore, yes; Pat Smith, yes; Jim Mock, yes. Motion passed.
Planning Update
Mr. Humphrey gave the following summary of land use and development activities in the community:
• A building for Southern Oregon Chiropractic and an urgent care facility is proposed for the northwest corner of 6th and Pine streets. 6
Planning Commission Meeting
May 7, 2019 Page 5
• The Brodiart Buildings on South Front Street are still under construction. One
building will house law offices and the other will provide offices for real estate or
other office use.
• The Chiropractic office on Cupp Dr. is moving to a building on North 3rd Street.
The new location is being remodeled by the same contractor working on the
Brodiart buildings on South Front Street.
• There is a proposal to put a modular classroom at Central Point Elementary at the intersection of South 2nd and Ash Street.
• There is a Conditional Use Permit and Site Plan & Architectural review application being reviewed for a car wash/oil change facility at Table Rock and Biddle Road.
• There is the possibility of a Bridgestone Tire store also on the corner of Table
Rock and Biddle Road.
• There is no news on the status of Rogue Valley Microdevices; however, they have
continued to submit timely extensions of the land use approvals granted in 2016.
• The City has received preliminary inquiries regarding construction of a hotel and fast food restaurant near the south west intersection of Hamrick and East Pine
Street.
• The Maker’s Space with have a ribbon cutting on May 18, 2019.
• Fire District 3 expects to have a ground breaking for the Scenic Avenue Fire
station in July.
• The Twin Creeks Crossing project is moving forward after a series of delays.
• At the June Planning Commission meeting Smith Crossing will be requesting a modification to a condition of approval to allow limited construction to begin on Phase 2 of the project.
• ODOT is working on adding a second lane on the northbound off-ramp, which was
required as a condition of the Costco development. The timeline for completion is unknown at this time.
VIII. ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEWS
IX. MISCELLANEOUS
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Planning Commission Meeting
May 7, 2019 Page 6
X. ADJOURNMENT
Kay Harrison made a motion to adjourn. Tom Van Voorhees seconded the motion. All
members said “aye”. Meeting was adjourned at 8:15 p.m.
Planning Commission Chair
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Planning Department
STAFF REPORT Tom Humphrey, AICP,
Community Development Director
June 4, 2019
Agenda Item: VIII-A
Consideration of the 2019 Employment Buildable Lands Inventory, an adjunct to the City of Central
Point Comprehensive Plan Land Use Element. Applicant: City of Central Point. File No. CPA-19002.
Staff Source
Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner
Background
On May 7, 2019 the Planning Commission discussed a working draft of the Employment Buildable Lands
Inventory (BLI). In accordance with OAR 660-024-0050(1), the Employment BLI tracks the availability
of employment (i.e. commercial, industrial and civic) buildable lands in the City’s urban area, including
vacant land and land that is likely to be redeveloped over the next 20-years. Additionally it presents the
distribution of buildable acres by parcel size and employment use category (i.e. retail, office, industrial
uses). The Employment BLI is not a policy document in and of itself but is used in assessing the City’s
economic opportunities in the Economic Element (CPA-19003).
During the Planning Commission meeting it was noted that several tables need to be updated to define
land use and zoning districts by name and acronym. Additionally staff has made minor corrections to the
text to correct rounding errors and grammar (Attachment “A”). These were reviewed by the Citizen’s
Advisory Committee (CAC) at a meeting on May 14, 2019. The CAC agreed with the Planning
Commission’s recommended changes and the minor text amendments by staff and recommended the
Planning Commission approve the Employment BLI with all corrections.
Employment BLI Overview:
The City’s urban area consists of 2,972 acres of which 633 (21%) are designated for employment use in
the following general categories:
• Commercial: 232.70 acres (8%)
• Industrial: 279.50 acres (9%)
• Civic: 121.05 acres (4%)
The Employment BLI tracks the development status of the City’s employment lands by land use
classification and zoning district. There are two basic types of buildable lands: 1) vacant land and 2)
redevelopment land. Vacant lands have no improvement value and redevelopment lands are those lands
that have experienced development but are likely to be converted to more intensive employment uses
during the planning period due to present or expected market forces. Per the BLI, the City has 147 acres
of buildable employment land, 31% of which is classified as redevelopment land. Of the City’s buildable
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employment lands, the majority of the City’s vacant acreage is in small size retail and industrial parcels.
However these categories account for a significantly lower percentage of buildable vacant acreage.
Table 1. Employment Site Distribution: Vacant Acres vs. Vacant Parcels
Acreage Category Vacant Acres Vacant Parcels
Large Retail 20% 3%
Medium Retail 13% 9%
Small Retail 9% 43%
Large Office 0% 0%
Medium Office 3% 4%
Small Office 0% 1%
Large Industrial 11% 1%
Medium Industrial 33% 12%
Small Industrial 12% 27%
Total 100% 100%
Issues
There are no issues. The Employment BLI is an inventory of buildable lands and is not a policy
document. The data in the BLI supports analysis in the Economic Element, which sets forth the City’s
goals and policies relative to the opportunities and need for employment land in the City’s urban area
over the next 20-years.
Attachments:
Attachment “A” – Employment BLI (Public Hearing Draft dated June 4, 2019)
Attachment “B” – Resolution No. 871
Action
Consideration of Resolution No. 871 forwarding a favorable recommendation to the City Council to
approve the Employment Buildable Lands Inventory—Land Use Element and 1) approve, 2) approve
with modifications, 3) deny, or 4) direct staff to prepare a revisions for consideration at the July 2, 2019
Planning Commission meeting.
Recommendation
Approve Resolution No. 871.
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Employment
Buildable
Lands
Inventory (BLI)
2019 – 2039
Public Hearing Draft
June 4, 2019
City of Central Point
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 2 of 18
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 3
2. LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS AND ZONING ....................................................................... 4
3. EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY .............................................................................................. 5
4. BUILDABLE EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY ..................................................................... 5
5. Employment Land Need ............................................................................................................. 12
6. DEFINITIONS and METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................... 12
APPENDIX “A” – Definitions .............................................................................................................. 14
APPENDIX “B” - Methodology for Calculation of Employment Buildable Land ............. 17
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 3 of 18
1. INTRODUCTION
The purpose of the Employment Buildable Land Inventory (Employment BLI) is to maintain a record of the availability of buildable employment lands within the City’s urban area (Figure 1).
The Employment BLI is prepared in accordance with OAR 660-24-0050(1) requiring that cities
maintain a buildable lands inventory within the urban growth boundary sufficient to accommodate the employment needs for a 20-year planning period as determined in OAR 660-
009-0015. For purposes of this Employment BLI the 20-year planning period is 2019 to 2039.
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 4 of 18
By definition the Employment BLI is strictly a land inventory system. The Employment BLI is not a policy document. The Employment BLI is used by other Comprehensive Plan elements as a
resource for the development and monitoring of policies related to economic development and
land use.
The Employment BLI is considered a living document that is continually updated as development activity occurs and is entered into the City’s BLI electronic data base (BLI2019).
2. LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS AND ZONING
The Employment BLI maintains an accounting of all employment lands by land use classification
and zoning (Table 1).
The City’s Comprehensive Plan contains five (5) employment land use classifications (Table 2). The employment land use classifications are supported by nine (9) employment zoning districts
(Table 3). The Land Use Classifications and Zoning districts are defined and mapped in the City’s Land Use Element.
Table 1. Employment Land Use & Zoning
Land Use Classification Zoning District
Neighborhood Commercial (NC)
Commercial Medical (C-2(M))
Tourist & Office Professional (C-4)
Employment Commercial (EC)
Thoroughfare Commercial (C-5)
General Commercial (GC)
Light Industrial (Lind)Industrial (M-1)
General Industrial (Hind)Industrial General (M-2)
Civic Civic
Neighborhood Commercial (NC)
Employment Commercial (EC)
General Commercial (GC)
Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation
Comprehensive Plan Designation
Total City
Acres
Total UGB
Acres
Total Urban
Acres
NC 2.64 7.83 10.47
EC 154.42 11.68 166.10
GC 56.13 - 56.13
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70
LInd 78.57 102.37 180.95
HInd 39.67 58.89 98.56
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50
Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05
TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05
GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.25
Table 2. City of Central Point
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 5 of 18
3. EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY
As of December 31, 2018, the City of Central Point’s urban area contained a total of 633 gross acres (Table 2 and 3) of employment designated land, representing 21% of the City’s total land
inventory. The City’s Employment lands were distributed amongst three basic land use
categories; Commercial (8%), Industrial (9%), and Civic (4%) lands.
4. BUILDABLE EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY
The term “Buildable Land” is typically reserved for residential use1. However, for purposes of
consistency the term “Buildable Land” is applied in this BLI for purposes of identifying and
tracking the City’s Employment Land inventory.
Within the City’s urban area, there are approximately 633 acres of employment land distributed
over five (5) employment land use classifications and nine (9) employment zoning districts. Approximately 147 acres (23%) of the City’s total employment land is considered net buildable
acres. Table 4 and 5 identify the distribution of the employment net buildable land by vacant land
type (vacant, constrained, and redevelopment), and total buildable acres. Figure 2 illustrates the geographic distribution of the City’s employment buildable vacant land inventory (May 7, 2019).
In calculating the Employment Net Buildable Lands a determination must be made that the buildable lands are suitable, available and necessary (OAR 660-009-0005(2)) for development
throughout the 20-year planning period. There are two basic classifications of buildable employment land:
1 OAR 660-024-0010(1).
Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District
Comprehensive Plan Designation
Total City
Acres
Total UGB
Acres
Total Urban
Acres
C-2(m)12.08 - 12.08
CN 2.64 7.83 10.47
C-4 100.47 8.48 108.95
C-5 12.49 3.19 15.69
EC 29.39 - 29.39
GC 56.13 - 56.13
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70
M-1 78.57 102.37 180.95
M-2 39.67 58.89 98.56
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50
Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05
TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05
GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.25
Table 3. City of Central Point
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 6 of 18
a. Vacant Land –Lands on which there are no improvements. Infrastructure is available within the 20-year planning period.
b. Redevelopable Land –Lands on which development has already occurred but on which, due to present or expected market forces, there exists the strong likelihood that existing
development will be converted to more intensive employment uses during the planning period.
4.2 Total Net Buildable Acres. Tables 3 and 4 identify the Total Net Buildable Acres of employment land by land use designation and zoning. Approximately 23% of the
City’s employment lands are identified as buildable. A large percentage (31%) of the
City’s net buildable acreage is classified as redevelopment land.
4.3 Parcel Size Distribution. An important consideration in considering a city’s employment land inventory is parcel size. This is particularly true for industrial
property. Tables 6 and 7 identify the distribution of the City’s employment lands by
size (Large, Medium, and Small) within three general employment categories (Retail, Office, and Industry). Tables 8 and 9 illustrate the same information for vacant
employment lands.
Comprehensive Plan Designation
Total City
Acres
Total UGB
Acres
Total Urban
Acres
Total Vacant
Acres
Constrained
Acres
Gross Buildable Vacant
Acres
Public
Facility Acres
Net Buildable
Vacant Acres
Redevelopable
Acres
Total Net
Buildable Acres
NC 2.64 7.83 10.47 0.24 - 0.24 0.06 0.18 1.51 1.70 EC 154.42 11.68 166.10 61.91 2.44 59.47 14.87 44.60 8.43 53.04 GC 56.13 - 56.13 8.23 - 8.23 2.06 6.17 0.40 6.57
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70 70.38 2.44 67.94 16.99 50.96 10.35 61.31
LInd 78.57 102.37 180.95 69.18 14.97 54.21 13.55 40.66 34.31 74.97 HInd 39.67 58.89 98.56 18.49 5.33 13.17 3.29 9.88 1.87 11.75 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 87.67 20.30 67.38 16.84 50.53 36.18 86.72
Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05 - - - - - - - TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05 - - - - - - -
GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.25 158.06 22.74 135.32 33.83 101.49 46.54 148.03
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 4. City of Central Point
Net Buildable Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation
Comprehensive Plan Designation
Total City
Acres
Total UGB
Acres
Total Urban
Acres
Total Vacant
Acres
Constrained
Acres
Gross Buildable
Vacant
Acres
Public
Facility Acres
Net Buildable
Vacant Acres
Redevelopable
Acres
Total Net
Buildable AcresC-2(m)12.08 - 12.08 - - - - - 0.12 0.12 CN 2.64 7.83 10.47 0.24 - 0.24 0.06 0.18 1.51 1.70
C-4 100.47 8.48 108.95 45.71 1.41 44.30 11.07 33.22 5.12 38.34
C-5 12.49 3.19 15.69 11.07 - 11.07 2.77 8.30 3.19 11.50
EC 29.39 - 29.39 5.13 1.03 4.10 1.03 3.08 - 3.08 GC 56.13 - 56.13 8.23 - 8.23 2.06 6.17 0.40 6.57
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70 70.38 2.44 67.94 16.99 50.96 10.35 61.31
M-1 78.57 102.37 180.95 69.18 14.97 54.21 13.55 40.66 34.31 74.97 M-2 39.67 58.89 98.56 18.49 5.33 13.17 3.29 9.88 1.87 11.75 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 87.67 20.30 67.38 16.84 50.53 36.18 86.72
Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05 - - - - - - - TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05 - - - - - - -
GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.25 158.06 22.74 135.32 33.83 101.49 46.54 148.03
Table 5. City of Central Point
Net Buildable Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 7 of 18
Figure 3 summarizes the parcel and acreage distribution for the vacant employment lands. As illustrated in Table 3 the City’s inventory of vacant employment land is
concentrated in the large retail and large industrial parcel category (31%), but only
represent 4% of the total number of vacant employment parcels.
It needs to be noted that the Office category is represented by the EmpCom land use classification. With respect to office use all of the Cities commercial land use classifications allow office uses. The EmpCom classification focuses on office uses,
however; the EmpCom allows retail uses.
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 8 of 18
Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation
Acres, and Size Classification
Land Use Designation Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size
RETAIL
Large Retail (8 plus acres)
NC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
EC 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
GC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres)
NC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
EC 52.0 15 3.5 9.2 2 4.6
GC 17.7 7 2.5 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Medium Retail 69.7 22 3.2 9.2 2 4.6
Small Retail (<2 acres)
NC 2.6 4 0.7 7.8 10 0.8
EC 71.5 180 0.4 2.5 2 1.3
GC 38.5 100 0.4 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 112.6 284 0.4 10.4 12 0.9
Retail Subtotal 213.2 308 19.5 14
INDUSTRIAL
Large Industrial (>= 15 acres)
LInd 17.3 1 17.3 0.0 0 0.0
HInd 20.2 1 20.2 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Industrial 37.5 2 0.0 0
Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres)
LInd 34.9 6 5.8 48.7 10 4.9
HInd 19.4 4 4.9 56.5 7 8.1
Subtotal Medium Industri 54.3 10 5.4 105.2 17.0
Small Industrial (<3 acres)
LInd 26.4 22 1.2 53.7 57 0.94
HInd 0.0 0 0.0 2.4 2 1.18
Subtotal Small Industrial 26.4 22 1.2 56.0 59
Industrial Subtotal 118.2 34 161.3 76
Grand Total 331.4 342 180.8 90
CITY UGB
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 6. City of Central Point
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 9 of 18
Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District,
Acres, and Size Classification
Land Use Designation Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size
RETAIL
Large Retail (8 or more acres)
C-2(m)0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
C-4 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
C-5 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
GC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres)
C-2(m)3.5 1 3.5 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
C-4 31.7 9 3.5 6.0 1 6.0
C-5 9.9 3 3.3 3.2 1 3.2
GC 17.7 7 2.5 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Medium Retail 62.8 20 3.1 9.2 2 4.6
Small Retail (<2 acres)
C-2(m)8.6 32 0.3 0.0 0 0.0
CN 2.6 4 0.7 7.8 10 0.8
C-4 37.8 81 0.5 2.5 2 1.3
C-5 2.6 2 1.3 0.0 0 0.0
GC 38.5 100 0.4 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 90.1 219 0.4 10.4 12 0.9
Retail Subtotal 183.8 241 19.5 14
Large Office (>= 3.5 acres)
EC 3.6 1 3.6 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres)
EC 12.2 7 1.7 0.0 0 0.0
Small Office (<1 acre)
EC 13.6 59 0.2 0.0 0 0.0
Office Subtotal 29.4 67 0 0
Large Industrial (>= 15 acres)
M-1 17.3 1 17.3 0.0 0 0.0
M-2 20.2 1 20.2 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 37.5 2 0.0 0
Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres)
M-1 34.9 6 5.8 48.7 10 4.9
M-2 19.4 4 4.9 56.5 7 8.1
Subtotal Small Retail 54.3 10 5.4 105.2 17.0
Small Industrial (<3 acres)
M-1 26.4 22 1.2 53.7 57 0.94
M-2 0.0 0 0.0 2.4 2 1.18
Subtotal Small Retail 26.4 22 1.2 56.0 59
Industrial Subtotal 118.2 34 161.3 76
Grand Total 331.4 342 180.77 90
CITY UGB
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 7. City of Central Point
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 10 of 18
Vacant Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation
Acres, and Size Classification
Land Use Designation Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size
RETAIL
Large Retail (8 plus acres)
NC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
EC 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
GC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres)
NC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
EC 17.1 6 2.8 0.0 0 0.0
GC 2.9 1 2.9 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Medium Retail 20.0 7 2.9 0.0 0 0.0
Small Retail (<2 acres)
NC 0.0 0 0.0 0.2 1 0.2
EC 13.9 21 0.7 0.0 0 0.0
GC 5.3 14 0.4 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 19.2 35 0.5 0.2 1 0.2
Retail Subtotal 70.1 44 0.2 1
INDUSTRIAL
Large Industrial (>= 15 acres)
LInd 17.3 1 17.3 0.0 0 0.0
HInd 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Industrial 17.3 1 0.0 0
Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres)
LInd 18.1 3 6.0 16.0 2 8.0
HInd 8.7 2 4.4 9.3 2 4.6
Subtotal Medium Industria 26.8 5 5.4 25.2 4.0
Small Industrial (<3 acres)
LInd 15.1 14 1.1 2.7 5 0.54
HInd 0.0 0 0.0 0.5 1 0.49
Subtotal Small Industrial 15.1 14 1.1 3.2 6
Industrial Subtotal 59.3 20 28.4 10
Grand Total 129.4 64 28.66 11
CITY UGB
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 8. City of Central Point
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 11 of 18
Vacant Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District,
Acres, and Size Classification
Land Use Designation Acres
Number of
Parcels
Average Parcel
Size Acres
Number of
Parcels
Average Parcel
Size
RETAIL
Large Retail (8 plus acres)
C-2(m)0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
C-4 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
C-5 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
GC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres)
C-2(m)0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
C-4 7.2 3 2.4 0.0 0 0.0
C-5 9.9 3 3.3 0.0 0 0.0
GC 2.9 1 2.9 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Medium Retail 20.0 7 2.9 0.0 0 0.0
Small Retail (<2 acres)
C-2(m)0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.2 1 0.2
C-4 7.6 16 0.5 0.0 0 0.0
C-5 1.2 1 1.2 0.0 0 0.0
GC 5.3 14 0.4 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 14.1 31 0.5 0.2 1 0.2
Retail Subtotal 65.0 40 0.2 1
OFFICE
Large Office (>= 3.5 acres)
EC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres)
EC 4.6 3 1.5 0.0 0 0.0
Small Office (<1 acre)
EC 0.5 1 0.5 0.0 0 0.0
Office Subtotal 5.1 4 0 0
Large Industrial (>= 15 acres)
M-1 17.3 1 17.3 0.0 0 0.0
M-2 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Industrial 17.3 1 0.0 0
Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres)
M-1 18.1 3 6.0 16.0 2 8.0
M-2 8.7 2 4.4 9.3 2 4.6
Subtotal Medium Industria 26.8 5 5.4 25.2 4.0
Small Industrial (<3 acres)
M-1 15.1 14 1.1 2.7 5 0.54
M-2 0.0 0 0.0 0.5 1 0.49
Subtotal Small Industrial 15.1 14 1.1 3.2 6
Industrial Subtotal 59.3 20 28.4 10
Grand Total 129.4 64 28.66 11
CITY UGB
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 9. City of Central Point
INDUSTRIAL
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
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5. Employment Land Need
As previously noted the primary function of the BLI is to assist in the identification of buildable land needs during a 20-year planning period. The BLI does not determine the City’s quantitative
need for employment land, it only identifies the City’s current employment land inventory. The
determination of the City’s need for employment land is the function of the Economic Element. As noted earlier the BLI is a living document that changes as changes occur in employment
development activity and policy.
6. DEFINITIONS and METHODOLOGY
To maintain consistency in the maintenance of the BLI the definitions and methodology used in preparing the Employment BLI are presented in Appendix “A” – Definitions and Appendix “B” – Methodology.
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
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APPENDIX “A” – Definitions
The 2019 BLI was last updated December 30, 2018. The following definitions are used in preparing and
maintain the residential BLI.
(1) “Buildable Land, Employment” means Employment designated lots or parcels within the City’s
urban area, including vacant and developed lots or parcels likely to be redeveloped that are suitable,
available and necessary for employment uses (OAR 660-009-0005(1)). Land is generally considered
“suitable and available” unless it:
1. Is severely constrained by natural hazards as determined under Statewide Planning Goal
7;
2. Is subject to natural resource protection measures determined under Statewide Planning
Goals 5, 6, 15, 16, 17 or 18;
3. Has slopes of 25 percent or greater;
4. Is within the 100-year flood plain; or
5. Cannot be provided with public facilities.
(2) “Redevelopment Land, Employment” means non-vacant land that is likely to be redeveloped during
the planning period. For purposes of this BLI the term Employment Redevelopment Land is employment
land that has a Land (L) to Improvement (I) ratio of less than 1 and is occupied by a single-family
detached residence. The L:I Ratio is the ratio between the real market value of land and the real market
value of improvements as measured by taking the real improvement value of a parcel divided by the real
land value based on the Jackson County Assessor records.
(3) “Development Constraints” means factors that temporarily or permanently limit or prevent the use
of land for economic development. Development constraints include, but are not limited to, wetlands, environmentally sensitive areas such as habitat, environmental contamination, slope, topography, cultural
and archeological resources, infrastructure deficiencies, parcel fragmentation, or natural hazard areas
(OAR 660-009-0005)(2).
(4) “Industrial Use” means employment activities generating income from the production, handling or
distribution of goods. Industrial uses include, but are not limited to: manufacturing; assembly; fabrication;
processing; storage; logistics; warehousing; importation; distribution and transshipment; and research and development. Industrial uses may have unique land, infrastructure, energy, and transportation
requirements. Industrial uses may have external impacts on surrounding uses and may cluster in
traditional or new industrial areas where they are segregated from other non-industrial activities (OAR 660-009-0005(3).
(5) “Other Employment Use” means all non-industrial employment activities including the widest range of retail, wholesale, service, non-profit, business headquarters, administrative and governmental employment activities that are accommodated in retail, office and flexible building types. Other
employment uses also include employment activities of an entity or organization that serves the medical, educational, social service, recreation and security needs of the community typically in large buildings or
multi-building campuses (OAR-009-0005)(6).
(5) "Planning Area" means the area within an existing or proposed urban growth boundary. Cities and counties with urban growth management agreements must address the urban land governed by their
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 15 of 18
respective plans as specified in the urban growth management agreement for the affected area (OAR 660-009-0005(7).
(6) “Prime Industrial Land” means land suited for traded-sector industries as well as other industrial
uses providing support to traded-sector industries. Prime industrial lands possess site characteristics that are difficult or impossible to replicate in the planning area or region. Prime industrial lands have
necessary access to transportation and freight infrastructure, including, but not limited to, rail, marine ports and airports, multimodal freight or transshipment facilities, and major transportation routes. Traded-sector has the meaning provided in ORS 285B.280 (OAR 660-009-0005)(8).
(7) “Serviceable” means the city has determined that public facilities and transportation facilities, as defined by OAR 660, divisions 011 and 012, currently have adequate capacity for development planned
in the service area where the site is located or can be upgraded to have adequate capacity within the 20-
year planning period (OAR 660-009-0005)(9).
(8) “Short-term Supply of Land” means suitable land that is ready for construction within one year of
an application for a building permit or request for service extension. Engineering feasibility is sufficient
to qualify land for the short-term supply of land. Funding availability is not required. “Competitive Short-term Supply” means the short-term supply of land provides a range of site sizes and locations to
accommodate the market needs of a variety of industrial and other employment uses (OAR 660-009-
0005)(10).
(9) ”Site Characteristics” means the attributes of a site necessary for a particular industrial or other
employment use to operate. Site characteristics include, but are not limited to, a minimum acreage or site
configuration including shape and topography, visibility, specific types or levels of public facilities, services or energy infrastructure, or proximity to a particular transportation or freight facility such as rail,
marine ports and airports, multimodal freight or transshipment facilities, and major transportation routes
(OAR 660-009-0005)(11).
(10) ”Suitable” means serviceable land designated for industrial or other employment use that provides,
or can be expected to provide the appropriate site characteristics for the proposed use (OAR 660-009-
0005)(12).
(11) “Total Land Supply” means the supply of land estimated to be adequate to accommodate industrial
and other employment uses for a 20-year planning period. Total land supply includes the short-term supply of land as well as the remaining supply of lands considered suitable and serviceable for the
industrial or other employment uses identified in a comprehensive plan. Total land supply includes both
vacant and developed land (OAR 660-009-0005)(14).
(12) “Vacant Land, Employment” means an employment designated lot or parcel not currently containing
permanent buildings or improvements. For purposes of determination of the presence of permanent
buildings/improvements all residential lots or parcels with an improvement value of zero (0), as determined by the Jackson County Assessor, are considered vacant.
(13) Net Buildable Acre, Employment: Consists of 43,560 square feet of employment designated
buildable land, after excluding present and future rights-of-way for streets and roads (OAR 660-024-
0010(6)).
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
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APPENDIX “B” - Methodology for Calculation of Employment Buildable Land
The methodology used to inventory and calculate buildable lands is based on the definitions defined in
Appendix A. The base data source for identification of buildable lands is the Jackson County Assessor’s
Records dated April 2018, which has been modified to include such additional information as
Comprehensive Plan designations, zoning, development status, etc. The modified database is referred to
as the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI2019.xls).
Step 1. Urban Area, Gross Acres – Using the City’s GIS the total geographic limits of the
City’s urban area are mapped and the gross acres within the limits of the shape file calculated by
area within the City Limits and UGB.
Step 2. Net Urban Area by Land Use and Zoning – Using BLI2018 sum by land use and
zoning all tax lots within the City’s urban area (City Limits and UGB). Tax lots identified for
street, road, or access right-of-way (public or private) purposes are not included.
Step 3. Right-of-Way – Deduct the totals (City Limits and UGB) in Step 2 total from Step 1
total, the balance representing acreage used for right-of-way for the City Limits and UGB.
The results of Steps 1 – 3 are presented in Tables 1 and 2 of the 2019 Employment BLI.
Step 4. Net Buildable Acres, Employment. The methodology for calculating Buildable
Employment Land involves the following steps:
Step 4a. Employment Vacant Acres. The BLI identifies all tax lots by their land use
designation, zoning, development status, improvement and land value, and development
constraints. When the improvement value of a property is zero the property is defined as
Employment Vacant Land. The BLI sums the acreage for all Employment Vacant Land
by land use and zoning for the City Limits and the UGB.
Step 4b. Constrained Acres. The BLI includes information on the amount of
constrained acreage for all lots or parcels. The BLI sums the constrained acreage for all
employment designated properties, by land use and zoning and subtracts from Total
Vacant Acres (Step 4a).
Step 4c. Gross Buildable Vacant Employment Acres. Using the sum of the totals
generated from Steps 4a and 4b the BLI calculates the Gross Buildable Vacant
Employment land by land use and zoning for the City Limits and the UGB.
Step 4d. Public Facility Acres. The Gross Buildable Vacant Acreage figure (Step 4c) is
reduced by 25% to account for public right-of-way to yield Net Buildable Vacant
Acreage.
Step 4e. Employment Redevelopment Acres. The BLI identifies all employment
designated tax lots for their redevelopment potential. Employment designated properties
in excess of with a Land (L) to Improvement (I) ratio in less than 1 are defined and have
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2019 – 2039 Employment BLI
Page 18 of 18
a single-family detached dwelling on-site are considered to be redevelopable during the
20-year planning period.
Step 4f. Total Net Buildable Employment Acres. The Employment Redevelopment
Acres (Step 4e) are added to the Net Buildable Vacant Acres (Step 4e) to yield Total Net
Buildable Acres for the City’s employment lands.
42
Planning Commission Resolution No. 871 (06/04/2019)
PLANNING COMMISSION RESOLUTION NO. 871
A RESOLUTION RECOMMENDING APPROVAL OF THE EMPLOYMENT BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY (2019-2039), AN ADJUNCT TO THE LAND USE
ELEMENT OF THE CENTRAL POINT COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
WHEREAS, On August 13, 2015 the City Council approved Resolution No. 1432 declaring its intent to initiate an Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) Amendment to add employment lands in the
CP-3 Urban Reserve Area; and,
WHEREAS, the City is required determine whether there is adequate development capacity to accommodate 20-year employment land use needs when evaluating or amending its (UGB) based on the employment land inventory procedures in OAR 660-009-0015; and
WHEREAS, the City of Central Point initiated a Type IV Legislative change to the City’s
Comprehensive Plan to update the City’s Buildable Land Inventory per CPMC 17.05.500; and WHEREAS, the amendment has been prepared in compliance with OAR 660-024-0015(1) and
OAR 660-009-0015; and
WHEREAS, the amendment does not change any policies of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan, but only serves to provide a factual accounting of the City’s buildable land inventory; and
WHEREAS, on June 4, 2019, the Central Point Planning Commission conducted a duly-noticed
public hearing at which time it reviewed the City staff report and heard testimony and comments
on the Employment Buildable Land Inventory;
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City of Central Point Planning
Commission by the Resolution No. 871 does hereby accept, and forward to the City Council, the
Residential Buildable Land Inventory as set forth in attached Exhibit “A” for final consideration
and adoption.
PASSED by the Planning Commission and signed by me in authentication of its passage this 4th
day of June, 2019
___________________________________
Planning Commission Chair
ATTEST:
___________________________________
City Representative
Approved by me this 4th day of June, 2019.
___________________________________
Planning Commission Chair
43
44
Planning Department
STAFF REPORT Tom Humphrey, AICP,
Community Development Director
June 4, 2019
Agenda Item: VIII-A
Consideration of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element for 2019-2039. Applicant:
City of Central Point. File No. CPA-19003.
Staff Source
Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner
Background
On May 7, 2019 the Planning Commission discussed a working draft of the Economic Element and
directed staff to schedule it for a public hearing in June. The Citizen’s Advisory Committee (CAC) also
considered the Economic Element at the May 14, 2019 meeting and forwarded a favorable
recommendation to the Planning Commission. Since that time, staff has revised the Economic Element
draft including updating and formatting tables, and making minor language revisions in sections 6 and 7
that address Land Demand and Goals and Policies.
Employment BLI Overview:
The Economic Element provides a forecast of employment growth opportunities over a 20-year planning
period (2019-2039) and identifies the associated employment land needs in accordance with Statewide
Planning Goal 9 (Attachment “A”). The last update to the Economic Element occurred in 2013 and
resulted in expansion of the City’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to add 49 acres of industrial land in
the Tolo Area. The current update has been initiated in response to interest in expanding the UGB for
commercial land and accounts for changes to the City’s forecast population, availability of buildable
lands, and economic trends for the nation, state, region and city.
The Economic Element concludes that the City is poised to experience growth across all employment
categories over the next 20-years and is especially well suited to accommodate growth in specialty foods,
trucking and transportation, healthcare and retail services. At this time, the City has a surplus of industrial
acreage but has a need for additional land to accommodate growth in commercial and institutional land
use categories as follows:
Sector
New Buildable Acres
Needed by 2039
Gross Employment
Acres Needed, 2019-
2039
Short-Term Gross Acres
Needed, 2019-2024
Industrial - - -
Commercial/Service 21 27 7
Institutional/Government 18 23 6
Other/Uncovered Employment 34 43 11
Total Employment 74 93 23
45
The goals and policies reflect the City’s need to maintain a proactive and collaborative approach to
economic development, providing an adequate and suitable land supply, and encouraging small
businesses and business innovation. Additionally the Economic Element addresses an increased emphasis
on providing land supply and opportunity for pedestrian oriented neighborhood commercial centers
consistent with policies in the Regional Plan and Land Use Elements.
At the June 4, 2019 Planning Commission meeting staff and the Consultant will present the Economic
Element including revisions (Attachment “B”).
Issues
There are no issues. The Employment BLI is an inventory of buildable lands and is not a policy
document. The data in the BLI supports analysis in the Economic Element, which sets forth the City’s
goals and policies relative to the opportunities and need for employment land in the City’s urban area
over the next 20-years.
Attachments:
Attachment “A” – Economic Element (Public Hearing Draft dated June 2019)
Attachment “B” – Economic Element (Sections 6 and 7 Mark-ups)
Attachment “C” – Resolution No. 872
Action
Consideration of Resolution No. 872 forwarding a favorable recommendation to the City Council to
approve the Employment Buildable Lands Inventory—Land Use Element and 1) approve, 2) approve
with modifications, 3) deny, or 4) direct staff to prepare a revisions for consideration at the July 2, 2019
Planning Commission meeting.
Recommendation
Approve Resolution No. 872.
46
ECONOMIC ELEMENT
2019-2039
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan
Prepared by
Huycke O’Connor Jarvis, LLP
823 Alder Creek Drive Medford, OR 97504
June 2019
PUBLIC HEARING DRAFT
47
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Page 2
Preface
Legal Requirements: Oregon law requires local municipalities to adopt an Economic Element as
a part of their Comprehensive Plans. OAR 660-009-0015. These Economic Elements help to
implement Oregon Statewide Planning Goal #9, which is “to provide adequate opportunities
throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare, and prosperity of Oregon’s citizens.” That is, Goal #9 encourages local governments, like Central Point, to achieve their economic development planning goals so as to benefit the state’s
residents.
Framework: Oregon Administrative Rules, Chapter 660, Division 9 calls for a four-step approach to economic development planning:
1. Review national, state, regional, county, and local economic trends
2. Identify the types and number of sites needed to accommodate growth
3. Inventory the industrial lands, employment lands, and vacant lands 4. Assess the community’s potential for economic development
This Economic Element follows these steps: Section 1 reviews Central Point’s economic history,
Section 2 analyzes national economic trends, Section 3 reviews economic data concerning the
State of Oregon, Section 4 reviews both Southern Oregon and Central Point’s economy, Section 5 contains a Population and Employment Forecast, Section 6 analyzes land demand for Central Point in both the short-term (5 years) and long-term (20 years), and Section 7 outlines the City’s
economic goals and policies that will guide the City of Central Point through the twenty-year
planning period (2019-2039).
This document will help guide the City of Central Point’s future growth and development, correct problems, maximize potentials, and act as a guide for decision-making. For a more
complete analysis of Central Point’s planning needs, see the Comprehensive Plan (updated 1983)
and the corresponding Population, Housing, and Land Use Elements, as well as the Central Point Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (2019-2039).1 This document should be read along with the Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (2019)
and any subsequent inventory updates.
1 See generally City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan (updated 1983).
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Page 3
Table of Contents
Preface ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 3
List of Figures: ................................................................................................................................ 5
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 6
Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Section 1: Central Point’s Economic History. ........................................................................... 8 Section 2: National Economic Trends ....................................................................................... 9
Measuring the National Economy .............................................................................................. 9
i. Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................... 9
ii. Employment ................................................................................................................ 12 iii. Inflation ....................................................................................................................... 14 National Economic Crosscurrents: ........................................................................................... 16
i. Trade Wars .................................................................................................................. 16
ii. Income Inequality ....................................................................................................... 17
iii. Cost of Health Care ..................................................................................................... 17 iv. Cost of Education ........................................................................................................ 18 Section 3: State Economic Trends ........................................................................................... 19
Neighboring States .................................................................................................................... 19
Measuring the State Economy .................................................................................................. 20
i. Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................. 20 ii. Employment ................................................................................................................ 21 iii. Industry Strengths ....................................................................................................... 23
State Economic Crosscurrents: ................................................................................................. 25
i. The National Economy ............................................................................................... 25
ii. Trade Wars .................................................................................................................. 25 iii. Housing Affordability ................................................................................................. 26 iv. Wildfires and Smoke................................................................................................... 26
Section 4: Economic Trends in Southern Oregon .................................................................... 27
i. Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................. 27
ii. Employment ................................................................................................................ 29 iii. Housing ....................................................................................................................... 30 Section 5: The City of Central Point’s Trends .............................................................................. 31
Measuring the City’s Trends ..................................................................................................... 31
i. Commuting Patterns.................................................................................................... 31
ii. Local Population Forecast ........................................................................................... 32 iii. Regional Employment Forecast .................................................................................. 35 iv. Regional Competitiveness .......................................................................................... 40
v. Economic Development Context ................................................................................ 42
vi. Competitive Position Summary .................................................................................. 44
vii. Assessment of Central Point’s Economic Development Potential ............................. 44 viii. Central Point’s Projected Job Growth ......................................................................... 46 Section 6: Land Demand .......................................................................................................... 48
Economic Growth Rate Forecast .............................................................................................. 48
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing .................................................................................... 48
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Page 4
ii. Trucking and Warehousing ......................................................................................... 48 iii. Retail ........................................................................................................................... 49
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry ...................................................................... 49
i. Site Requirements Analysis ........................................................................................ 50
ii. Target Industries’ Unique Site Requirements ............................................................. 51 Long-Term Land Demand Estimate ......................................................................................... 52 iii. Estimate of Needed Employment Lands ..................................................................... 53
Short-Term Land Demand Estimate ......................................................................................... 54
Inventory of Employment Lands .............................................................................................. 54
i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency ................................................................... 55 ii. Vacant Lands .............................................................................................................. 55 iii. Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 56
Section 7: Goals and Policies ................................................................................................... 58
Policy 1: Participation ........................................................................................................... 59
Policy 2: Refine Policies ....................................................................................................... 59 Policy 3: Monitor Long-Term Consequences ....................................................................... 59 Policy 4: Small Businesses ................................................................................................... 60
Policy 5: Business Innovation ............................................................................................... 60
Policy 6: Tolo Area ............................................................................................................... 60
Policy 7: Monitor Regulations .............................................................................................. 60 Policy 8: Adequate Short-Term Supply ................................................................................ 60 Policy 9: Prepare for Long-Term Needs ............................................................................... 60
50
City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Page 5
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP ................................................................................ 11
Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950 .................................................................... 13
Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006 ................................................................... 13
Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ....................................... 15 Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ....................................... 15 Figure 6: U.S. Health-Care Spending as a Share of GDP ............................................................. 17
Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017 ................................................................................................ 20
Figure 8: Short-Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon ................................................................ 21
Figure 9: Oregon’s Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................... 22 Figure 10: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 2016 ................. 23 Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County’s GDP ............................................................................. 28
Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County’s GDP .......................................................................... 28
Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate ......................................................................... 29
Figure 14: Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns ............................................................... 31 Figure 15: Jackson County―Total Population by Five-year Intervals (1975-2017) ................... 33 Figure 16: Population Growth Projections for City of Central Point and Jackson County .......... 34
Figure 17: Central Point Population Pyramid ............................................................................... 34
Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, 2017-2027 .................................. 36
Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2017-2027 .......................................... 38 Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2027 ................................................................ 39 Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast..................................................................................... 40
Figure 22: Jackson County Shift-Share Analysis 2010-2017 ....................................................... 40
Figure 23: Central Point’s Qualitative Trends .............................................................................. 42
Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential ...................................................... 45 Figure 25: Central Point’s population growth rate ....................................................................... 47 Figure 26: Central Point's 20-year job forecast by industry ......................................................... 47
Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry ....................................................... 50
Figure 28: General Development Pattern Site Requirements ....................................................... 51
Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039 ............................ 53 Figure 30: Gross Acres Needed .................................................................................................... 54
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City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Economic Element 2019
Page 6
Introduction
Purpose: The purpose of this Economic Element is to determine the City of Central Point’s
economic goals, policies, and land use needs. It identifies economic development opportunities
and corresponding employment land needs for the next 20 years (2019-2039). It also provides a
realistic analysis of current economic trends and potential disruptions. Through this, Central Point will be better able to reduce costs and delays, anticipate obstacles, and keep planning
activities aligned with the City’s policies.
Past Elements: The City of Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan
in 1973.2 In 1980, the Rogue Valley Council of Governments prepared the City of Central Point’s first Economic Element.3 That document was subsequently succeeded in 2013 by a
version prepared by CSA Associates.4 This Economic Element of 2018 supersedes the previous
versions and becomes part of Central Point’s Comprehensive Plan. It establishes the framework
for future economic growth and development and gives a long-range evaluation of the City’s
changing characteristics and needs.
Geographic Scope: This Economic Element is limited in scope to developments within the
Central Point city limits and the Urban Growth Boundary. Central Point is located near the
geographic center of Jackson County in southwestern Oregon, approximately midway between
Portland and San Francisco.5 The City has the advantage of being located directly on Interstate 5 (I-5), Highway 99 (U.S. Route 99), the Southern Pacific Railway, and adjacent to the Rogue
Valley International Airport. Immediately to the south of Central Point is the City of Medford,
which is the seat of Jackson County and the largest city in Southern Oregon. This provides
Central Point residents with easy access to major shopping centers, employment, and
governmental activities.
2 Id. at Preface 1. 3 City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 at 5 (2013). 4 See id. 5 City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan, Part IV, Plan Summary 3 (updated 1983).
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Summary
This Economic Element includes an economic history of Central Point, it analyzes current
national, state, and regional economic trends, includes an employment forecast, and an inventory
of lands used for employment. The final section outlines the City’s economic goals and policies
that will guide the City through the twenty-year planning period (2019-2039). The national economy is doing well, with GDP at a very healthy rate, unemployment down, and
inflation moderate. However, leading economist are warning that the U.S. economy will slow
and may even slide into a recession around the year 2020. Further, the economic health of the
country is increasingly threatened by the possibility of trade wars, growing income inequality, and the costs of health care and education. As a result, the City of Central Point must be prepared for economic fluctuations in both the short- and long-term, which could seriously impact its land
use planning forecasts.
The state economy is “hitting the sweet spot” and doing well compared to other states. GDP is rising, employment has recovered from the Great Recession, and it has growing industries. However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the state economy is at risk
from the U.S. economy’s volatility, retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, a prolonged
affordable housing crisis, as well as the impact of forest fires and smoke. While the economy
may remain strong, the City should brace itself for a slowdown like the 1990s recession. The Southern Oregon region is doing even better than the state economy. Although the region
was hit hard by the Great Recession, and recovery has been difficult, the GDP is growing faster
than the national rate and USA Today has ranked both Jackson and Josephine counties as the 28th
and 18th best local economies in the nation respectively. Nevertheless, the area still has high unemployment rates and is suffering from a lack of affordable housing for middle class workers.
Central Point has a high population growth rate and is expected to grow to approximately 26,000
people by 2039. This means that Central Point will surpass the City of Ashland’s population and
capture almost 7 percent of the new jobs in the region over the next 20 years. The gains will be concentrated in service, health care, construction, professional, and the business industries. Its target industries include specialty foods, trucking and warehousing, and retail. According to the
population and job capture rate, Central Point will need approximately 13 acres of new
employment lands in the next 5 years and anywhere from 65 to 73 new acres by 2039.
Ultimately, future economic conditions cannot be accurately predicted. However, strategically planning the City of Central Point’s land base for the long-term has the potential to benefit
economic development in the City and the surrounding area. This includes preparing to
accommodate future needs and integrating the City’s land use planning efforts within a broader
economic development strategy. Central Point’s last Economic Element was created in 2013. Because it relied on data from the
2010 census, and because there will be little new data before the 2020 census, much of this
Economic Element is similar or identical to that of the last element. Furthermore, many of the
conclusions in that element remain valid and are adopted.
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Section 1: Central Point’s Economic History.
Central Point’s economic history has centered on trade, resource-based industries such as forest
products and agriculture, and minor retail for its residential areas.
Incorporated by the State Legislature in 1889, Central Point was so named because of its location at the center of the inhabited parts of the Rogue Valley.6 Before then, Jacksonville had served as the region’s economic center. However, when the railroad was built, Jacksonville was bypassed,
and the tracks were built through what is now Central Point.
Central Point’s railroad station was the closest point to reach Crater Lake from the South. All the county roads leading from Ashland, Jacksonville, and Medford passed through Central Point, making it a prime area for shipping and trading.7
Central Point is located near some of Jackson County’s most fertile soils and was well located to
serve the surrounding farmers. Indeed, this remained the foundation of the City’s economy well into the 1960s. Central Point’s location allowed it to act as a trading location for the farming community, a location for schools, and as a well-placed area for shops and services. The City
housed the Grange Co-op’s grain elevator and various farm repair shops and equipment retail.
Between the 1960s and 1970s, the City of Central Point rapidly expanded its residential development. Because there was no corresponding development of commercial and industrial industries, Central Point became a residential community largely inhabited by people who
commuted to nearby cities for work. During this period the forest products industry grew, and
residents of Central Point were able to find employment at the mills in Medford and White City.
In 1980, the City of Central Point adopted its first Economic Element that has herewith been replaced by this Economic Element. The U.S. economy has undergone several economic cycles
since then. The 1980 Economic Element sought to diversify the City’s economy and reduce the
degree of imbalance between employment and housing within the City. Central Point has been
successful to some extent over the last thirty years in its efforts to diversify its economy. The City has experienced retail and industrial growth in and around Exit 33 on Interstate 5. Providence Hospital recently added a medical facility on Highway 99 south of Pine Street. A
small specialty foods cluster has developed along Highway 99 north of Pine Street that includes
Rogue Creamery, Lillie Belle Farms chocolates and a wine tasting room. The Rogue Valley
Council of Governments has its main office building near downtown Central Point. A new Costco Wholesale store opened off of Table Rock Road in 2017. Further, newer retail exists near freeway interchanges and along Pine Street and Highway 99. These employers and others have
served (and an overarching objective of this Economic Element is) to continue to add more
balance and diversity to the City’s employment base.
6 Democratic Times, Jacksonville, page 1 (July 18, 1889). 7 Id.
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Section 2: National Economic Trends
Purpose It is important to review current trends in the U.S. economy. The national
economy provides the necessary context for the adoption of updated economic development
policies and strategies in the City’s Comprehensive Plan. By engaging with governmental
projections and economic forecasts, the City will be better able to position itself for long-term success. This review of national trends will help inform the Economic element by providing a foundation to describe the City’s economic advantages and disadvantages.
National Economic Trends The U.S. economy is booming. However, “potential danger lurks
around the corner.”8 Over the last decade, the national economy has largely recovered from the Great Recession: unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate, people appear confident in the economy, and the International Monetary Fund has projected a
short-term growth of just under 3 percent.9
However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis warns that there are signs of a potential economic slowdown around 2020. Economic crosscurrents threaten economic stability, including the potential for global trade wars, increasing costs of health care, and the increasing burdens of
higher education on younger generations. This indicates the likelihood of strong short-term
growth for the United States but relative weakness in the medium and long term.10 While there
will likely be a downturn in the economy, it will probably be less severe than the Great Recession.11 Because there is no obvious asset or investment bubble today (unlike the subprime mortgages of 2008), if a recession occurs it will probably be similar to the recession of 1990.12
Measuring the National Economy
There are many ways to analyze the national economy, such as the GDP, unemployment rate, and inflation rates. Each of these helps to describe how well the economy is doing and may
indicate how healthy the economy will be in the future.
i. Gross Domestic Product What is Gross Domestic Product? Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) is a measurement of how
many goods and services the United States produces.13 Because it measures production, it is one
of the primary indicators used by economists to determine the health of the economy.14 The ideal
8 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018). 9 Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy looks ‘good’ for the ‘next couple of years at least’,
CNBC (Oct. 9, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/mohamed-el-erian-us-economy-headed-for-solid-growth-for-couple-years.html. 10 Id. at 6. 11 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26, 2018), available at:
oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/10/26/hammer-dont-hurt-em/. 12 Id. 13 Harriet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-at-3-5-rate-in-third-quarter-1540557378. 14 Leslie Kramer, What is GDP and why is it so important to economists and investors? Investopedia (Feb. 5, 2018), available at: www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/what-is-gdp-why-its-important-to-economists-investors/.
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GDP growth rate is between 2-3 percent.15 If GDP grows too slowly it could indicate some economic unhealthiness; if it grows too fast it could mean that there is an asset bubble and that
the economy is overheating.
Past Trends Since Central Point published its first economic element in 1980, the national GDP has had its ups and downs. The Recession of the early 1980s was followed by an economic boom that lasted until 1990. The short Recession of 1990 was followed by a decade of economic
prosperity. Although there was a modest downturn in 2000-2001, that was replaced with
continuing economic expansion through 2006. Then came the Great Recession, the worst period
since World War II from a GDP perspective. In five out of six quarters from the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2009 the GDP actually went negative. After a decade of recovery, the Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipates that the economy will fully recover by 2020.16
Recent Growth Currently, the U.S. GDP is increasing at a good rate. See Figure 1.
Although there has not been explosive growth,17 the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has characterized the US economy as “entering into its boom phase of the business cycle.”18
The last two quarters mark the strongest back-to-back quarters of U.S. economic growth since
2014.19 According to the Department of Commerce, the national GDP grew at a rate of 3.5
percent in the third quarter of 2018.20 While this was stronger than expected, this was down from 4.2 percent expansion in the previous quarter.21 Economists have explained that this was due to strong consumer spending,22 a drop in unemployment,23 and the results of the recent tax cuts,
including business investment, the restocking of inventories,24 and excessive borrowing by the
Federal Government.25
15 Kimberly Amadeo, What is the Ideal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance (Oct. 5, 2018), available at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-gdp-growth-rate-3306017. 16 Id. 17 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone, CNN Business (May 1, 2018) available at:
money.cnn.com/2018/05/01/news/economy/us-economy-great-recession-recovery/index.html. 18 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018). 19 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak, CFO Magazine (October 26, 2018), available at: ww2.cfo.com/the-economy/2018/10/u-s-gdp-continues-hot-streak/. 20 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018 (advance estimate) (Oct. 26, 2018). 21 Fred Imbert, The US economy grew at a 3.5% pace in the third quarter, faster than expected, CNBC (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/first-read-on-us-q3-2018-gross-domestic-product.html. 22 Id. 23 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone. 24 Sarah Foster, What Economists Are Saying Ahead of Third-Quarter U.S. GDP Data, Bloomberg (Oct. 25, 2018), available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-26/what-economists-are-saying-ahead-of-third-quarter-u-
s-gdp-data. 25 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone.
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Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP
Short-Term Projections The U.S. GDP is currently on a “hot streak”26 and will probably
maintain 2.5-3 percent growth through 2019. However, it is difficult to predict future growth beyond that. In fact, forecasts by national economists for short-term growth are conflicted. While
some predict multiple years of 3 percent growth,27 the International Monetary Fund has projected
a short-term growth of under 3 percent for 2018 and 2.5 percent for 2019.28 The Federal Reserve
has a similar opinion, projecting that the GDP rate will decrease to 2.5% in 2019, 2% in 2020,
and 1.8% in 2021.29 This, coupled with the threat of a major trade war with China, have led to fears of an economic slowdown sometime around 2020. In fact, Moody's Analytics chief
economist Mark Zandi has said, “By mid-2020, we will be most vulnerable to the next
recession.”30
Long-Term Projections It is even more difficult to project how the national GDP will fare over the next two decades. Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has said,
“trying to forecast a period of prolonged weakness, or even a possible recession two years in
advance is a fool’s errand . . . . There’s just too much time, too many potential variables . . . to
alter the course that far in the future.”31 Here, there are too many variables that can change. However, some things will occur with near-
certainty. First, over the next two decades the economy will evolve. Some industries will
diminish, some will expand, while still others will be created. Second, there will be some good
years and some not-so good years. That is, things will not always be as good as they are now. Third, on average, there will probably be more years of healthy GDP growth than not.
26 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak. 27 Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy looks ‘good’ for the ‘next couple of years at least.’ 28 Id. 29 Harriet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-at-3-5-rate-in-third-quarter-1540557378. 30 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone. 31 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em.
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Conclusion Central Point must accept the reality of long-term GDP fluctuations when engaging in planning and decision-making. City leaders should not adopt the view that because
things are good now that they will always be good. Instead, Central Point should have long-term
plans that accept the fundamentals of the free market.
ii. Employment
What is Unemployment? Unemployment measures how many people in the country do not
have jobs. Unemployment occurs when a person who is actively searching for a job is unable to
find work.32 Like GDP, it is one of the main indicators of an economy’s health. Of particular importance to economists is the “unemployment rate,” which is calculated by taking the number of unemployed people and dividing by the number of people employed.33 Unlike GDP, the
unemployment rate usually rises or falls after changing economic conditions, rather than
anticipating an economic event.34 Even a healthy economy will have a certain number of people
unemployed: some will be between jobs and others will have been displaced by an evolving economy.
Past Trends The United States has never had zero percent unemployment. The lowest rate ever
recorded was 2.5 percent in mid-1953. It occurred because “the economy overheated during the
Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the recession of 1953.”35 Since Central Point published its first Economic Element, the U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated in line with the economic booms and busts. The highest rates were 10.8 percent in 1982 and 10 percent at the
height of the Great Recession in December 2009. In turn, the lowest rates were 3.8 percent in
April 2000, and 4.4 percent in 2006 and 2007.
Recent Trends Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7 percent, the lowest in nearly half a century.36 Figure 2 depicts the rapid increase in unemployment during the Great
Recession and the slow recovery over the last decade. Unemployment has been declining and has
finally fallen below pre-Recession levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics assumes that the
economy will fully recover from the Great Recession by 2020 and that the labor force will return to a full unemployment rate of 4 to 5 percent.37
32 What is Unemployment, Investopedia, available at:
www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp#ixzz5VjPvdupQ. 33 Id. 34 What is Unemployment Rate, Investopedia, available at: www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp. 35 Kimberly Amadeo, Natural Rate of Unemployment, Its Components, and Recent Trends: Why Zero Unemployment Isn't as Good as It Sounds, The Balance (Sept. 26, 2018). 36 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak. 37 Kimberly Amadeo, What is the Ideal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance (Oct. 5, 2018), available at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-gdp-growth-rate-3306017.
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Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950
Figure 3 depicts the strong relationship between unemployment and educational attainment.
Those without a high school diploma have experienced unemployment rates that are almost double that of individuals with a college education. However, the rate of unemployment has been
declining at a much faster pace over the last several years for those without a high school
diploma than those with a college education. Overall, unemployment levels are good when
measured on a national scale.
Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006
Short-Term Projections The current unemployment rate is unsustainable.38 Both Moody’s Analytics and Goldman Sachs’s chief economists have forecasted that unemployment will
continue to decline to 3 percent by early 2020.39 However, there are conflicting forecasts after
that. Either the anticipated 2020 slowdown could prevent the economy from overheating and
38 Rebecca Rainey, Happy Jobs Day! Politico (Nov. 2, 2018), available at: www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-
shift/2018/11/02/happy-jobs-day-399113. 39 Brian Cheung, Goldman Sachs warns the economy may be growing too quickly, Yahoo Finance (Nov. 5, 2018),
available at: sports.yahoo.com/goldman-says-fed-needs-avoid-dangerous-overheating-154158689.html. Also see Martin Crutsinger, Fed likely to keep rates on hold and sketch a bright outlook, AP (Nov. 5, 2018), available at:
www.wacotrib.com/news/ap_nation/fed-likely-to-keep-rates-on-hold-and-sketch-a/article_eb9369f3-bf36-5557-977d-51354f1832a9.html.
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temporarily stabilize the unemployment rate or the economy will slow too much, potentially destabilizing the employment rate, causing it to increase.40 The Federal Reserve estimates that
the normal unemployment rate (absent shocks to the economy) will rise back up to between 4-5
percent over the next five to six years.41 While it is unclear whether unemployment will hold
steady for a while longer or if it will begin rising again as soon as 2020, it is highly probable that unemployment will be going back up.
Long-Term Projections Like forecasting GDP rates decades in advance, it is also difficult
to project unemployment rates for the next two decades. However, it should be noted that the
average unemployment rate for the U.S. between 1948 and 2018 was 5.77 percent, with a high of 10.8 percent and a record low of 2.5 percent. As a result, the average unemployment rate will probably stay in these bounds, close to the average.42
Conclusion The unemployment rate is currently very low and will be going back up. A
possible slowdown or recession around 2020 could either stabilize the rate or cause it to rise sharply. Ultimately, unemployment will probably stay around 3 percent for the next couple years and average 5 percent over the next two decades.
iii. Inflation
What is inflation? Inflation is the measure of how much the price of goods and services increases over time.43 It means that things cost more and more instead of staying the same price.
For example, if a gallon of milk has an inflation rate of 2 percent per year, then the price of milk
will be 2 percent higher next year. Importantly, inflation is not primarily caused by the Federal
Government printing too much money. Instead, inflation usually rises because buyers want products so much that they are willing to pay higher prices.
If workers’ wages do not keep pace with inflation, people have less buying power. The opposite
of inflation is deflation, which is when things cost less than they did before. It is important to
measure inflation because it shows if on average people are prospering or suffering under the current economy.
Measuring Inflation There are different ways to measure inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics uses the Consumer Price Index.44 In the United States, the Federal Reserve aims
for a target annual inflation rate of 2 percent.45
Past trends Figure 4 shows how inflation has occurred over the last seven decades. When
Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the United States was undergoing a
40 Id. 41 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, What is the lowest level of unemployment that the U.S. economy can sustain? FAQs (Sept. 26, 2018), available at: www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14424.htm. 42 Trading Economics, United States Unemployment Rate, (Oct. 2018), available at: tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate. 43 Kimberly Amadeo, Why Inflation Is as “Violent as a Mugger” The Balance (Oct. 30, 2018), available at www.thebalance.com/what-is-inflation-how-it-s-measured-and-managed-3306170. 44 Id. 45 Id.
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period of massive inflation. Inflation was over 7 percent in the 1970s and almost 6 percent in the 1980s. Since then, inflation has dropped to the 3 percent range in the 1990s and under 2 percent
in the pre-Great Recession years. In 2009, inflation averaged -0.34 percent. However, inflation
has been steadily climbing back up and, in the twelve months leading up to September 2018, the
Consumer Price Index increased 2.3 percent. Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
Short-Term Projections At the moment, inflation is relatively benign.46 The price of food goods is remaining steady while the cost of vehicles has fallen sharply.47 Increases in the
Consumer Price Index have been tied to increasing rental prices and the cost of home
ownership.48 However, the Federal Reserve projects greater than 2 percent inflation over the next
couple of years. See Figure 5, which shows the recent history of the Consumer Price Index. Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
46 Jeffry Bartash, Inflation rises slowly in September in latest sign of easing price pressures, CPI shows, Market
Watch (Oct. 11, 2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-costs-nudge-inflation-higher-in-september-cpi-shows-2018-10-11. 47 Id. 48 Id.
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Long-Term Projections Although the current inflation rate is 2.28 percent, this is well
below the 3.76 average since the end of WWII.49 As a result, in the long term, inflation will
probably be moving back up to better approach the average rate.
Conclusion In the long run, inflation will probably be increasing to better align with the averages of the last century. Unless wages also increase to meet inflation, it will become harder
for individuals to purchase things.
National Economic Crosscurrents: Primary Risks to the U.S. Economy The national economy appears healthy: GDP has a good
growth forecast, unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate,
and people appear confident in the economy. In addition to analyzing the traditional
measurements of economic success, it is also important to consider strategic threats to the economy that have not yet sufficiently impacted the economic data.
There are several things that put the economy at risk in both the short and long-term: trade wars,
increasing income inequality, and the costs of health care and education.
i. Trade Wars
First among the dangers to the national economy is the simmering trade war. Although there has
been little impact so far, the possibility of escalation could severely harm the national economy.
Already, the US soy industry could be on the verge of collapse, with sales down 94 percent to China because of the retaliatory tariffs.50 Because soybeans are usually routed through the Pacific Northwest on their way to Asia, this could harm Oregon’s economy.51
Many other industries are also threatened, with duties on steel and aluminum costing U.S.
companies about half a billion dollars in September 2018 alone.52 An escalation in the trade wars (either by including more countries or a wider range of goods) would harm U.S. industries,
transportation companies, and consumers across the board.53 It would also lead to an increase in
prices and inflation, requiring the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.
49 Jill Mislinski, A Long-Term Look at Inflation, Advisor Perspectives (Oct. 2018), available at:
www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/10/12/a-long-term-look-at-inflation. 50 Binyamin Appelbaum, Their Soybeans Piling Up, Farmers Hope Trade War Ends Before Beans Rot, New York
Times (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html 51 Isis Almeida, Trump’s Tariff War Scrambles Agricultural Trade Routes, Bloomberg Business (Nov. 1, 2018),
available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-01/trump-s-tariff-war-scrambles-u-s-trade-routes-as-soy-piles-up 52 Stephanie Dhue and Yian Mui, American businesses paid 50% more in tariffs in September due to Trump's trade war, industry coalition says, CNBC (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/tariff-payments-up-
50percent-in-september-on-trump-trade-war-industry-group.html. 53 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 2018).
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ii. Income Inequality
Income inequality is a system-level issue for the United States economy.54 Over the last 20
years, the top 10 percent of income earners have received a nearly 200 percent increase in their
overall median net worth, while the bottom 40 percent of earners have seen an actual decline in their net worth.55 This economic upheaval will have a major impact on government spending; an aging population that has less of an ability to support itself will require more help from
entitlement and social programs. In the long term, it has the potential to negatively impact
institutional investors’ portfolios; increase financial and social system-level instability; damage
output and slow economic growth; increase the Federal Deficit; and contribute to the tendencies toward protectionism and tariffs.56
iii. Cost of Health Care
The cost of health care for the American consumer is increasing. Since the City of Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the U.S. has gone from spending 7.2 percent of its GDP on health care to almost 18 percent today.57 See Figure 6. While total inflation is
averaging around 2.3 percent, healthcare has increased 3.7 percent. What is more, the price of
health care is rising faster than normal prices and companies are having to spend more on health
insurance premiums.58 As a result, employees are taking less money home with them. Figure 6: U.S. Health-Care Spending as a Share of GDP
54 Bob Eccles, Investors Can And Should Address The Fundamental Causes Of Income Inequality, Forbes (Oct. 30, 2018) available at: www.forbes.com/sites/bobeccles/2018/10/30/investors-can-and-should-address-the-fundamental-
causes-of-income-inequality/#46f07c851ed5. 55 Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause U.S. debt downgrade, Moody’s says, MarketWatch (Oct. 27,
2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-inequality-could-cause-us-debt-downgrade-moodys-says-2018-10-12. 56 Steve Lydenberg, et al., New Report: Why and How Investors Can Respond to Income Inequality, The Investment Integration Project (2018) available at: www.tiiproject.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Why-and-How-Investors-
Can-Respond-to-Income-Inequality.pdf (PDF warning). 57 Noah Smith, Efforts to slow the rise in the country’s insanely expensive system have gone nowhere, Bloomberg
(Oct. 29, 2018). 58 Id.
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iv. Cost of Education
The burden of student debt is likely to keep growing, which will dramatically inhibit the ability
of younger generations to accumulate wealth.59 Outstanding student loans are already
approaching $1.2 trillion.60 While inflation is around 2.3 percent, and health care costs are rising at 3.7 percent, education expenses are rising at an incredible rate of 5.2 percent.61 In fact, if education inflation continues at this rate, the cost of tuition and fees for a four-year public
university by 2028 will be between $65,590 for in-state public schools and $224,124 for private
colleges.62
Many parents are burdened with saving large amounts of money to pay for their children’s college education. Further, many young adults are already burdened with enormous student loan
debts. Because parents and/or college graduates will need to spend enormous sums on tuition,
and wages are not rising to meet this increase, people will either be prevented from getting a
higher education or will be stuck paying off loans for a much longer period. In either case, that is bad news for the economy.
59 Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause U.S. debt downgrade, Moody’s says, MarketWatch (Oct. 27,
2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-inequality-could-cause-us-debt-downgrade-moodys-says-2018-10-12. 60 Mike Patton, The Cost of College: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow, Forbes (Nov. 19, 2018), available at: www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2015/11/19/the-cost-of-college-yesterday-today-and-tomorrow/#556eff706060. 61 Id. 62 Id.
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Section 3: State Economic Trends
Oregon’s economy is “hitting the sweet spot” and doing better than most other states.63 Wages
and household incomes are rising, and workers are coming back into the labor market.64 Further,
because state revenues are higher than forecasted, Oregon taxpayers should expect to receive a
bonus “kicker” on their income tax returns in 2019.65 While the state economy is doing well, it is also acting more volatile than the national
economy.66 Josh Lehner, senior economist at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, is
concerned that while the economy is still growing, the pace of that growth is slowing down.
Further, “We expect that pattern to continue—that growth tomorrow will be slower than growth today.”67
Panelists at the 15th Annual Oregon Economic Forum indicated that economic trouble for the
state is likely still a few years away.68 Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private
Bank has interpreted the data as suggesting that the state economy is one or two years away from a recession.69 However, both McCain and Oregon Economic Forum director Tim Duy noted that a future recession may not be as bad as the Great Recession.70
Neighboring States
Oregon is geographically well situated because its neighboring states to the north and south have very strong economies.
Washington State’s GDP has grown 3 percent over the last five years, the largest increase in the
nation.71 It has the 14th largest GDP in the country at $439.4 billion in 2017.72 However, it also ranked 47th in the US by unemployment rate, which was 4.7 percent in June 2018.73
California has the largest economy in the United States.74 If California was a country, it would
63 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 2018). 64 Id. at 1. 65 Jade McDowell, Oregon’s economy is strong, but how long will it last? Eastern Oregonian (Oct. 12, 2018),
available at: www.eastoregonian.com/eo/local-news/20181012/oregons-economy-is-strong-but-how-long-will-it-last. 66 Id. 67 Id. 68 Anthony Macuk, Economists at Oregon forum: Don’t expect an imminent recession, The Columbian (Oct. 17, 2018), available at: www.columbian.com/news/2018/oct/17/economists-at-oregon-forum-dont-expect-an-imminent-
recession/. 69 Id. 70 Id. 71 Oregon Small Business Association Foundation, Oregon #12 in nation’s Best State Economies, Oregon Business
Report (Oct. 15, 2018). 72 Id. 73 Id. 74 Id.
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have the fifth largest economy in the world.75 California’s GDP grew almost as much as Washington’s at 2.9 percent over the last five years.76 Its GDP was eleven times that of
Oregon’s, at $2.4 trillion. While its unemployment rate is slightly above average at 4.2 percent, it
has had a five year annual employment growth of 2.2 percent, which is the eighth best in the
nation.77 Measuring the State Economy
Like the national economy, there are similar ways to analyze Oregon’s economy: GDP and
employment are important, as infomration specific to Oregon’s industries. i. Gross Domestic Product
State GDP Like the national GDP, Oregon’s GDP is a measure of how much the state
produces in goods and services. Past Trends Since Central Point’s first economic element in 1980, Oregon’s economy has
transitioned from being a resource-based economy (traditionally timber, fishing, and agriculture)
to being a more mixed manufacturing and marketing economy (with an emphasis on high
technology).78 At the same time, Oregon’s GDP has more than doubled, from $100.8 billion in 1997 to $212.6 billion in 2017. See Figure 7 for Oregon’s GDP increase.
Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017
75 Adam Nagourney and Matt Stevens, California Today: The State Faces Some Big Problems. Are We Ready? New
York Times (Oct. 11, 2018), available at: www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/us/california-economy.html. 76 Oregon Small Business Association Foundation, Oregon #12 in nation’s Best State Economies, Oregon Business
Report (Oct. 15, 2018). 77 Id. 78 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book, available at: sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-overview.aspx.
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Recent growth In the the last five years, Oregon’s has had slightly above average economic growth in comparison to other states: its GDP has grown 1.7 percent, the 16th largest
increase in the country, ranking it 24th in the nation.79
Short-term projection Although there is the possibility that the state economy will continue booming, it is more likely that the state will experience a mild recession around 2020. See Figure 8 for three likely scenarios for the state economy. The Oregon Economic and
Revenue Forecast of September 2018 anticipates that under the mild recession scenario, the
economy will contract by -1.8 percent in 2020 and -0.6 percent in 2021.80 Absent a recession, the
state’s Real Gross State Product is projected to be the seventh fastest among all states across the country in terms of growth with gains averaging 2.5 percent through 2023.81
Figure 8: Short-Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon82
Long-term projection Even if there is a recession in the coming years, the economy
should recover and continue to do well into the long-term.
Conclusion Like the national economy, the state economy should remain healthy over the next year. However, there is a strong potential that a national recession will spill over into Oregon, damaging the state economy and harming Oregon residents.
ii. Employment
Overview Oregon has more than two million people in its labor force.83 Through 2023, the state economy’s total employment is expected to be the eighth strongest among all the states at a
rate of 1.3 percent.84
Past Trends Nearly every state industry was affected by the Great Recession but by May 2016, Oregon had more jobs than it had when the recession began.85 See Figure 9, which shows how
79 Id. 80 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 16 (Sept 2018). 81 Id. at 21. 82 Id. 83 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book. 84 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 21 (Sept 2018). 85 Id.
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the state unemployment rate has changed depending on the national economic environment.
Figure 9: Oregon’s Unemployment Rate
Recent trends Currently, Oregon’s unemployment number is under what is historically
considered full employment for the state.86 However, for the last three years, the unemployment
rate has been extremely volatile; a few months of extreme declines have been followed by months of huge increases.87 However, over the last year the Oregon unemployment rate has stopped declining.88 Currently, it is hovering around 4 percent.
Short-term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the Oregon
unemployment rate will remain steady for the near future because this job growth rate now matches population and labor force gains.89 However, if there is a severe recession in the near-future, unemployment may spike up to 10 percent.90
Long-term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects a “slightly
stronger economic outlook” in 2025 and beyond.91 Compared to the rest of the country, Oregon’s employment numbers should fare well. Total employment could be the eighth strongest in the nation at 1.3 percent, while manufacturing employment could be the seventh fastest in the
country at 1.1 percent.92
Conclusion Based on the economic reports created by the oregon Office of Economic Analysis, the Oregon unemployment rate should remain steady for the near future. However, depending on the strength of the anticipated 2020 slowdown, this could change dramatically. If
Oregon’s economy is lucky enough to avoid being harmed by the national economy, the
unemployment rate should continue to decrease to near-record levels.
86 Id. at 10. 87 Id. 88 Id. 89 Id. 90 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 20 (Sept 2018). 91 Id. at 15. 92 Id. at 21.
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iii. Industry Strengths
Another way to understand the state economy is to see how the state’s population is employed. Figure 10 list the most common jobs in Oregon, as well as the normal wages. Location Quotient (“LQ”) shows the relative strength of that occupation in Oregon’s economy. For example, if an LQ is greater than one it indicates that the concentration is greater in Oregon than the national
average. If it is less than one, it indicates that Oregon has a lower concentration than on average.
Figure 10: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 201693
Occupation title Employment Employment per 1,000 jobs LQ Median hourly wage Annual mean wage
All Occupations 1,790,940 1000 1 $18.26 $49,710
Office and Administrative Support 265,770 148.399 0.95 $16.96 $37,430
Sales and Related 181,760 101.488 0.98 $13.45 $37,980
Food Preparation and Serving Related 170,710 95.32 1.03 $10.98 $25,190
Transportation and Material Moving 119,650 66.806 0.96 $15.73 $36,550
Production 113,230 63.226 0.97 $16.47 $37,460
Management 110,970 61.96 1.23 $42.91 $102,990
Education, Training, and Library 103,930 58.031 0.94 $23.01 $57,450
Healthcare Practitioners and
Technical
98,610 55.061 0.93 $38.16 $90,100
Business and Financial Operations 83,790 46.788 0.9 $29.96 $68,530
Construction and Extraction 72,580 40.526 1.02 $22.45 $50,820
Personal Care and Service 69,360 38.726 1.2 $11.98 $27,900
Installation, Maintenance, and
Repair
61,940 34.587 0.89 $21.21 $47,190
Retail Salespersons 61,610 34.402 1.07 $11.85 $28,890
Building and Grounds Cleaning and
Maintenance
55,400 30.931 0.98 $12.77 $29,350
Computer and Mathematical Occupations 50,900 28.419 0.96 $37.72 $82,190
Healthcare Support 48,130 26.877 0.93 $16.24 $35,110
Cashiers 45,730 25.535 1.01 $11.03 $24,640
Architecture and Engineering 40,820 22.795 1.28 $37.31 $86,810
Community and Social Service 35,930 20.061 1.39 $20.68 $46,490
Registered Nurses 35,220 19.667 0.97 $42.32 $87,000
Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Fast Food 34,950 19.518 0.8 $10.55 $22,930
Office Clerks, General 33,500 18.707 0.89 $15.90 $34,470
Waiters and Waitresses 33,100 18.48 1.01 $10.62 $26,240
Protective Service 32,740 18.283 0.76 $22.29 $50,010
93 Bureau of Labor and Statistics, May 2016 State Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates Oregon, Department of Labor (May 2016), available at: www.bls.gov/oes/2016/may/oes_or.htm#00-0000.
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The state agency Business Oregon lists six target industries for the state economy: Forestry & Wood Products, Advanced Manufacturing, High Technology, Food & Beverage Services,
Business Services, and Outdoor Gear & Apparel.94
Oregon continues to be a leader in forestry and agriculture. While the Oregon economy is much more diverse than it was thirty years ago, forestry and agriculture still exhibit employment that is concentrated at many times the national average. However, the timber industry is under pressure
from both the market and federal regulations, and so is projected to grow slowly.95
Oregon’s manufacturing industry is weighted towards semiconductors and wood products relative to the nation, which mostly concentrates on autos and aerospace.96 Although semiconductors and wood products have been historically strong, they are expected to grow
more slowly in the future.97 The state’s primary metal manufacturing is concentrated as a result
of the continued operation of Oregon’s aluminum industry.
The computer and electronic product manufacturing industries are strong due to the presence of Intel and Tektronix in the Portland area. Non-store retailers like Harry & David contribute to the
strength in that industry sector. Beverage manufacturing comes from the growing wine and craft
beer industries in Oregon.
Professional and Technical Services is a fast-growing, emerging industry in Oregon.98 It includes businesses who are using their expertise to help businesses around the world to grow.99
Management and technical consulting is the largest industry in this group, followed by
engineering services and advertising, public relations, and related services.100 For example,
CH2M was founded in Corvallis and now employs over 26,000 employees worldwide.101 While Oregon is not known as a home for Fortune 500 companies, it does have Nike, a world-
leader in shoes and athletic apparel. The City of Portland is also the home of Columbia
Sportswear, which specializes in the target industry of Outdoor Gear & Apparel.
The Office of Economic Analysis has ranked eleven industries as doing exceptionally well.
Private sector food manufacturing, education, and health care have never suffered strong losses
from a recession.102 Further, retail employment, wholesale, transportation, warehousing and
utilities, and construction have surpassed their pre-recession levels and are at all time highs.103
94 Business Oregon, Business Oregon’s Target Industry Groups, available at: www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon-Business/Industries/. 95 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at 17 (Nov. 2018). 96 Id. 97 Id. 98 Business Oregon, Business Oregon’s Target Industry Groups, available at www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon-
Business/Industries/. 99 Id. 100 Id. 101 Id. 102 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 8 (Sep. 2018). 103 Id.
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State Economic Crosscurrents:
Primary Risks to Oregon’s Economy The state economy appears healthy: GDP is good,
unemployment is low, and Oregon’s industries are strong and growing. However, the state
economy is at risk: the national economy could experience a small recession that could drag down the state economy, trade wars threaten the state’s economic vitality, there is a housing crisis, and wildfires and smoke are harming the tourism industry.
i. The National Economy
Because of the potential for an economic slowdown around 2020, it is important to analyze the impacts that the last national recessions had on the Oregon economy. In fact, Josh Lehner of the
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis forecasts that a future recession would be like the 1990s
recession,104 so it is important to review how that particular economic event effected the state
economy. The 1990s recession was relatively mild on the national economy.105 In the 1990s, Oregon “lost
just as many jobs as the US did.”106 However, many consumer service sectors and industries
actually outperformed the US economy.107 This included manufacturing, construction, services,
and retail. Nevertheless, the data indicates that there were big manufacturing job losses, with less losses in the service sectors. 108 As a result, if there is a recession around 2020 and it appears to be similar to the 1990s recession, Oregon should brace itself for losses in the manufacturing
industry, but for the industry to be able to hunker down and withstand a short economic storm.
ii. Trade Wars Oregon is particularly susceptible to harm from a trade war because Oregon trades more with
foreign nations than most other states.109 As a result, should China and Canada retaliate against
US trade tariffs, Oregon’s economy could be dealt a particularly strong blow.110 According to
economist Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, the impact of tariffs from China and Canada to Oregon’s economy could be about $870 million.111 It has the potential to
impact the state’s agriculture industry, aluminum scrap exporters, various consumer goods, and
distillery companies.112 If there is continued escalation and if global supply chains are disrupted,
“it will be a much bigger economic problem.”113
104 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/10/26/hammer-dont-hurt-em/. 105 Id. 106 Id. 107 Id. 108 Id. 109 Kathleen McLaughlin, Tariff hikes hit Oregon products, The Bend Bulletin (June 19, 2018), available at: www.bendbulletin.com/business/6322636-151/tariff-hikes-from-china-canada-hit-oregon-products. 110 Id. 111 Id. 112 Id. 113 Id.
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iii. Housing Affordability
Oregon is in a housing crisis. Since Central Point adopted its first Economic Element in 1980,
housing prices in Oregon have risen by 315%, making it 4th in the nation for housing price
increases.114 A major issue is that Oregon is not building enough housing units to keep pace with the population increase. According to the Oregon Home Builders Association Oregon needs 25,000 new units every year, but only 15,000 are being constructed.115
Low housing supply has led to rising rental costs and home prices. This, plus a very low rental
vacancy rate, have contributed to an affordable housing crisis across the state.116 According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, Oregon is the 3rd most unaffordable rental market in the nation.117 Further, according to the Oregon Housing and Community Services Director
Margaret Van Vliet, the state has 130,000 extremely low-income households but only 20,000
housing units are affordable for those households.118
This crisis is straining the state economy because housing is a necessary expenditure. If 55 percent of renters in Oregon must pay more than 30 percent of their income to housing,119 then
Oregon consumers will have less purchasing power. Further, if there is not enough housing,
Oregon will have fewer workers and will be less able to entice target industries to relocate.
iv. Wildfires and Smoke
Wildfires and smoke have been negatively impacting the Oregon economy.120 The last two years
have had record levels of unhealthy air. According to the Oregon Department of Forestry’s 2018
fire statistics 70,685 of the acres that it protects burned as of September 2018, which is 53 percent higher than the 10-year average.
A wildfire impact study released by Travel Oregon in July 2018 found that the state lost $51.5
million in visitor spending due to the 2017 wildfires.121 According to the study, Josephine
County lost $680,000 and Jackson County lost $2.8 million in spending because of the fires. Those losses were mostly in the food service and accommodation industries.122 The smoke also
cost the Oregon Shakespeare Festival in Ashland about $2 million as a result of cancelling
outdoor performances.123
114 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon’s Housing Crisis, available at: habitatoregon.org/affiliates/oregons-housing-crisis/ 115 Id. 116 Vickie Aldous, Merkley: Oregon is in a housing crisis, Medford Mail Tribune (March 30, 2018), available at:
mailtribune.com/news/top-stories/merkley-oregon-is-in-a-housing-crisis. 117 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon’s Housing Crisis. 118 Vickie Aldous, Merkley: Oregon is in a housing crisis. 119 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon’s Housing Crisis. 120 KATU Staff, Wildfires, smoke taking its toll on Oregon tourism, KATU (Aug. 14, 2018), available at: katu.com/news/local/wildfires-smoke-taking-its-toll-on-oregon-tourism. 121 Saphara Harrel, The News-Review (Sep. 17, 2018), available at: www.nrtoday.com/news/environment/wildfires/wildfires-impact-the-health-economy-of-southern-
oregon/article_f34eff89-4681-5da3-9714-ada8b91a8cd9.html. 122 Id. 123 Peter Libbey, Wildfire Smoke Disrupts Oregon Shakespeare Festival, New York Times (Aug. 24, 2018), available at: www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/theater/oregon-shakespeare-festival-wildfire-smoke.html.
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Section 4: Economic Trends in Southern Oregon
Overview Central Point is located in Jackson County and near Josephine County. Both
counties effect Central Point’s economy and are often treated as a single region for economic
data.
Jackson County124 It has a population of 219,270 people as of May 2018,125 which accounts for approximately 5 percent of Oregon’s population.126 Between 2000 and 2010, it experienced a
1.1 percent increase in population127 and a 5.26 percent increase in median household income,
from $44,028 to $46,343.128 Its median age is 42.9.
Southern Oregon The Office of Economic Analysis has stated that Southern Oregon was hit hard by the Great Recession and that the recovery has been more difficult than other parts of the
state.129 However, local job growth has returned, and poverty rates are falling. While Jackson
County has historic highs in wage growth and employment rates, Josephine County is still in a
bad position, having yet to regain its losses from the last recession.130 i. Gross Domestic Product
Jackson County had the 103rd fastest growth in GDP between 2016 and 2017 among the nation’s
384 metropolitan areas (2.6 percent).131 This is compared to the U.S. metropolitan areas growing by an average of 2.1 percent during the same time frame.132 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has projected that the county had a GDP of $8,590,000,000 for 2017.133
Industries in Jackson County that boosted GDP growth were education and health services;
professional and business services; trade; and transportation, warehousing, and utilities.134 See Figure 11. Those industries that damaged GDP growth were other services and information.135
124 Officially labeled “Medford OR (MSA)” (the Medford, Oregon Metropolitan Statistical Area). 125 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents 8 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf
(PDF warning). 126 210,916/4,142.000 = 5.09% 127 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents 8 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf
(PDF warning). 128 Medford, OR Metro Area, Data USA, available at: https://datausa.io/profile/geo/medford-or-metro-area/#intro. 129 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at 20 (Nov. 2018). 130 Id. 131 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017, QualityInfo (Sept. 27, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/medford-and-grants-pass-gdp-growth-outpace-u-s-average-in-2017. 132 Id. 133 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: www.bea.gov/system/files/2018-09/gdp_metro0918_0.pdf (PDF warning). 134 Id. 135 Id.
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Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County’s GDP136
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has projected that Josephine County had a GDP of
$2,478,000,000 for 2017.137 Incredibly, this ranked it 31st in the nation in terms of fastest growth
in GDP for 2017.138 During that time, the GDP grew at 4.3 percent.
Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County’s GDP139
In Josephine County, 40 percent of GDP growth came from finance, insurance, and real estate.140
136 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017. 137 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: www.bea.gov/system/files/2018-09/gdp_metro0918_0.pdf
(PDF warning). 138 Id. 139 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017. 140 Id.
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Other industries that are strong are trade, education and health services (like in Jackson County), and leisure and hospitality. See Figure 12. Professional and business services, information, and
other services reduced the GDP.
Conclusion Southern Oregon’s economy is growing at a good pace. Both Jackson and Josephine County are well ranked nationally in terms of the rate of economic growth. However, they both have a long way to go to recover from the losses they suffered in the Great Recession.
ii. Employment
Recent Trends Southern Oregon was recently ranked in the top 30 job markets in the United States based on job growth over the last five years.141 USA Today ranked the nearby City of
Medford as #28 in the nation, saying:
Medford is one of several rapidly growing cities in Oregon adding jobs at a faster pace than almost anywhere else in the country. Due in large part to the metro area's education and health services industry, there are over 13,000 more jobs in Medford today than there
were in 2013, a 15.4 percent increase.142
USA Today also said that Grants Pass had the largest drop in unemployment in the nation between 2013 and 2018, ranking it as the 18th best job growth economy in the nation.143 Job growth was driven by the education and health services industry, which added 1,700 out of the
5,000 new jobs.144
Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate
141 Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available
at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Report-Medford-Grants-Pass-Among-Top-US-Job-Markets-500405392.html. 142 Samuel Stebbins, 31 cities adding the most jobs as the US economy grows, USA Today (Nov. 12, 2018),
available at: www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/11/12/us-economy-grows-cities-adding-most-jobs/38319445/. 143 Id. 144 Id.
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Despite this new growth, Jackson County’s unemployment rate is still higher than the national
average.145 In fact, both Jackson and Josephine County had the highest unemployment rates out
of all the cities in the USA Today’s list of best local economies.146 However, when compared to
other regions in Oregon, Jackson County has one of the lowest unemployment rates at 4.4 percent.147 See Figure 13. Neighboring Josephine County is at 5.5 percent while Klamath County is at 5.8 percent.148
Conclusion The Southern Oregon economy is growing at a very good rate. While it still needs
to catch up to the rest of the nation,149 if it is able to avoid being harmed too much by the next economic slowdown, it should be able to make up its past losses.
iii. Housing
Overview For the last few years the local housing market has been booming. However, it now appears to be slowing down. This is a major concern for the Southern Oregon economy because it may inhibit construction of much-needed housing units and continue to drive up the
price of rent.
Recent trends Between 2000 and 2010, the total number of housing units in Jackson County increased rapidly.150 Housing units increased by 20.1 percent, with 2,130 units in Central Point alone (almost half of Medford’s growth of 5,000 units).151 In 2018 home prices in Jackson
County increased by an average of $12,000 in comparison to 2017, a slower rate than previous
years.152
Conclusion Southern Oregon is one of the last affordable housing areas in the West Coast.153 This could encourage Californians to relocate and contribute to the local economy.154 However,
new residents from wealthier states could encourage local builders to concentrate on constructing
expensive homes and not affordable housing. This could price out younger people, such as
Millennials, and portions of the working class from the region.
145 Leah Thompson, Southern Oregon’s Unemployment Rates are Higher than Country’s Average, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 4, 2018), available at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Southern-Oregons-Unemployment-Rates-are-Higher-
than-Countrys-Average-499561461.html. 146 Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available
at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Report-Medford-Grants-Pass-Among-Top-US-Job-Markets-500405392.html. 147 Id. 148 Id. 149 Id. 150 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents 17 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf
(PDF warning). 151 Matt Jordan, Housing market ‘softening’ in Jackson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at:
kobi5.com/news/local-news/housing-market-softening-in-jackson-county-89532/. 152 Matt Jordan, Housing market ‘softening’ in Jackson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at
kobi5.com/news/local-news/housing-market-softening-in-jackson-county-89532/. 153 Greg Stiles, Housing prices will attract outsiders, Medford Mail Tribune (Oct. 15, 2018), available at:
mailtribune.com/business/housing-prices-will-attract-outsiders. 154 Id.
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Section 5: The City of Central Point’s Trends
Introduction Central Point has unique economic and social trends when compared to the
Southern Oregon region. Its population is fast-growing, relatively young, and its workers
generally commute short distances to work. Measuring the City’s Trends
i. Commuting Patterns
Introduction The Department of Land Conservation & Development (DLCD) recommends analyzing commute patterns as one of the ways to determine land use needs.
Central Point exhibits a somewhat unique combination of commuting patterns. See Figure 14.
Typically, cities that have a low percentage of its residents working within the city also have relatively high commute times. But that is not the case for Central Point, which has only 21 percent of its residence working outside the city. Those residents have much shorter commute
times when compared to both the national and state averages for workers commuting outside
their cities. This is probably because a large amount of Central Point residents work in north
Medford. In many cases this is only a few blocks from where they live. Many may also work in White City, which can be accessed by roads with little congestion, such as Interstate 5 or Table Rock Road.
Figure 14: Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns155
Worker Travel Information
(workers 16 years and over) Oregon
Jackson
County
Central
Point
Means of Transportation to Work Car, truck, or van 82.7% 86.5% 93.8%
Drove alone 72.0% 76.8% 86.0%
Carpooled 10.8% 9.7% 7.8%
Public transportation (excluding
taxicab) 4.2% 0.9% 1.5%156
Walked 3.9% 3.4% 2.0%
Bicycle 2.1% 1.4% 1.4%
Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means 1.0% 1.0% 0.2%
Worked at home 6.1% 6.7% 2.7%
Travel Time to Work
155 U.S. Bureau of the Census. 156 The number of residents using public transportation was listed as 0.0% in the data set. However, that is
improbable. Other Census Bureau data lists it as 1.5% and so that is included here. See U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-year Estimate, DataUSA (2016), available at: datausa.io/profile/geo/central-point-or/.
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Less than 10 minutes 17.5% 20.6% 21.8%
10 to 14 minutes 16.9% 22.2% 29.7%
15 to 19 minutes 16.5% 19.3% 24.7%
20 to 24 minutes 15.0% 15.2% 11.2%
25 to 29 minutes 5.9% 5.0% 3.4%
30 to 34 minutes 11.9% 8.8% 5.5%
35 to 44 minutes 5.4% 3.3% 1.8%
45 to 59 minutes 5.6% 2.9% 0.4%
60 or more minutes 5.3% 2.7% 1.6%
Mean travel time to work (minutes) 22.1 18.4 14.8
Place of Work
Worked in state of residence 97.8% 98.8% 99.5%
Worked in county of residence 77.5% 94.9% 97.7%
Worked outside county of residence 20.3% 3.9% 1.8%
Worked outside state of residence 2.2% 1.2% 0.5%
Living in a place 79.4% 74.3% 100.0%
Worked in place of residence 38.6% 37.8% 21.0%
Worked outside place of residence 40.8% 36.5% 79.0%
Not living in a place 20.6% 25.7% 0.0%
ii. Local Population Forecast
Introduction In addition to reviewing commuting patterns and economic trends, it is also
important to review trends related to population growth. The DLCD recommends analyzing population because it is one of the best means to determine Central Point’s future land demand.157 While economic trends are subject to rapid changes without much warning,
population growth is much easier to predict.
This section contains a short analysis of population trends as of 2019. For a more comprehensive analysis, see the Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039).
Past Trends Since Central Point published its first Economic Element, Jackson County’s total
population has grown from roughly 114,000 to 219,270 people.158 See Figure 15. The high
growth rates of the 1970s were a result of relative economic prosperity while the decline in the 1980s was a result of challenging economic conditions.159 During the 1990s, the county’s growth rates increased again at first but then declined later in the decade. Jackson County’s total
population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of just over 1 percent.
157 Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, Tips for Conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (March 2008). 158 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Coordinated Population Forecast: 2018 through 2068
(Jackson County) (June 2018) at 8-9. 159 Id.
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Figure 15: Jackson County―Total Population by Five-year Intervals (1975-2017)160
Central Point posted a growth rate higher than that of Jackson County, at 2.9 percent from 2000-
2010.161 That makes it the second fastest growing area in the Rogue Valley, just after Eagle Point’s rate of 5.6 percent.162 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101 people,163
ranking behind Medford’s 82,566 people and just behind the City of Ashland’s 21,501 people.164
Reasons for Increase The county’s positive population growth has largely been the result of net
immigration.165 The aging population has led to an increase in deaths and local women have postponed having children, which has resulted in birth stagnation. As a result, without
immigration, Southern Oregon would be experiencing a “natural decrease” in population.
Long-term projections Jackson County is likely to grow at a fast pace in the short-term.166
The Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) forecasts that Jackson County’s will grow from 219,270 people to 264,951 people by 2039.167 See Figure 16.
160 Id. at 10. 161 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf (PDF warning). 162 Id. 163 See City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12. 164 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018 through 2068.
Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf
(PDF warning)at 9. 165 Id. 166 Id. 167 City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13.
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According to the Population Research Center at Portland State University, the City of Central
Point is expected to capture a much larger share of Jackson County’s future population than it
has in the past.168 Central Point is expected to have a short-term growth rate of 1.5 percent,169
and by 2039, Central Point will have 26,317 people, making it larger than the City of Ashland.170 This also means that approximately 7 percent of the county population will live in Central Point.171
Figure 16: Population Growth Projections for City of Central Point and Jackson County172
Figure 17: Central Point Population Pyramid173
168 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents (May 2018). 169 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13. 170 Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018) at 47. 171 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12. 172 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13, Table 1. 173 City of Central Point Economic Element 2013-2033 citing U.S. Census Bureau.
Year Central Point Jackson County Josephine County
2019 19,101 219,270 86,423
2020 19,714 235,066 88,274
2025 21,035 246,611 90,177
2030 22,920 257,256 93,194
2035 24,815 263,006 95,677
2039 26,317 264,951 97,377
Change: 2019 to 2039 7,216 45,681 10,954
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The population pyramid for Central Point, see Figure 17, depicts the typical shape for a town without a university. The “gap” in residents aged 20-24 exists in most non-university towns
because this is the age where young adults leave to attend college or obtain employment
elsewhere. Although this data will be less valuable after the 2020 census, it still helps to predict
what types of services and land use Central Point needs to offer. The City’s population is less top-heavy than either the nation or the county because fewer people aged 65 or older live in Central Point. Although the Southern Oregon region experiences high levels of retirees
relocating to the area, this does not appear to be the case in Central Point. However, the ongoing
Twin Creeks project may alter future data.
Because of the relative youth of the population, Central Point has a large percentage of families with working-aged individuals aged 30-50 and their children under the age of 14. Proportionally,
this means that Central Point has higher levels of working-age individuals than the national
population. This shows that Central Point has a strong labor base, and that there will continue to
be a strong demand for education services. Conclusion Central Point must prepare to have its population grow by almost 38% over the
next 20 years. Should the population trends continue, the City must also be prepared to house a
population younger than a typical non-university town.
iii. Regional Employment Forecast
Introduction The DLCD also recommends analyzing job growth forecasts as a means to
determine a city’s future land use needs. 174
The employment forecast data used in this section was generated by the Research Division at the Oregon Employment Department through 2027. This is the best region-specific data currently
available. The following analysis correlates to both population growth per the City of Central
Point Population & Demographics Element (2019) and the anticipated expansion of specific
occupations and industries. The subsequent conclusions assume that the forecasted rates of 2017-2027 will remain constant through 2039.
Growth According to Guy Tauer, the Regional Economist for Jackson and Josephine
counties, between 2017 and 2027, 14,111 new jobs will open in the “Rogue Valley region”175
due to population growth.176 In addition, there will be 148,807 job openings to replace workers who leave the occupation or the workforce.177 A worker who leaves a job and then is hired to do
the same job at another establishment would not be counted as a replacement opening.178
174 Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, Tips for Conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (March 2008). 175 Defined as Jackson and Josephine Counties. 176 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Occupation 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 9, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by-occupation-2017-2027. 177 Id. 178 Id.
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Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, 2017-2027179
Service Industry The service industry had the largest share of total jobs in 2017. See Figure 18 for both industry-specific job openings and job growth. The service industry is also expected to add the most new jobs in Jackson County and have the greatest number of total openings by
2027.180 This industry includes food preparation, personal care services, building maintenance,
ground keeping, and protective service occupations.181 This means that Central Point will need to
dedicate more lands to retail use.
Sales and Related Industries After the service industry, the greatest total openings will be in
sales and related industries, such as office and administrative support―each with approximately
21,800 total openings.182 These have growth rates of 6.7 percent and 5.3 percent.183 This low
growth forecast is probably a result of labor-saving technologies like self-checkout stations,
automated inventory systems, and online retail sales.184 This means that Central Point will need to dedicate additional lands to office use.
Health Care The health care and social assistance industries currently account for
approximately one out of six jobs in the Rogue Valley.185 In fact, the area’s current employment
is concentrated in this industry with over 20,830 employees. Through 2027, health care is
179 Id. 180 Id. 181 Id. 182 Id. 183 Id. 184 Id. 185 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 3, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by-industry-2017-2027.
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expected to have the most job openings―adding 3,780 new jobs.186 See Figure 20 for industry-specific employment growth. This means that health care occupations will continue to grow by
approximately 17.7 percent.187 This is because a growing and aging population will demand
more health care services, which will in turn create more employment opportunities in this
recession-resistant industry.188 Although health care in the Rogue Valley is mostly concentrated in Medford, given that it has
both Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center and Providence Medford Medical Center, Central
Point has begun to make inroads into the industry with the Providence Medical Plaza on North
Pacific Highway. This indicates that Central Point may want to dedicate more land to office space use in order to house more health care workers.
Construction Over the decade, construction is expected to have the fastest job growth
rate in the Rogue Valley, up by 25 percent. This is because housing construction, while still
below pre-Great Recession levels, is picking back up.189 As a result, Central Point may need more industrial-zoned land for construction shops, warehouses, machinery storage, and company offices.
Professional & Management, Business, and Financial The two industries of Professional
and Related services and Management, Business, and Financial services will both be growing at a healthy rate. Professional and related occupations will have a growth rate of 10 percent. As a result, Central Point will want to dedicate a good amount of its employment lands for office
space use.
186 Id. 187 Id. 188 Id. 189 Id.
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Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2017-2027190
Manufacturing and retail Manufacturing and retail trade are still expected to add jobs by
2027, just under 1,000 for both industries.191 See Figure 20 for industry employment changes.
However, the possibility of an economic slowdown in these sectors should be taken into
consideration when allocating land.
Leisure and hospitality About one in eleven jobs in the Rogue Valley were in leisure and
hospitality in 2017.192 This tourism- reliant sector is forecast to add 1,930 jobs between 2017 and
2027.193 However, Central Point should consider the devastating effects that wildfires and smoke
could have on the industry in the near-future.
190 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment Department (July 3, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by-industry-
2017-2027. 191 Id. 192 Id. 193 Id.
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Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2027194 Jackson and Josephine Counties
Employment Sector 2017 2027 Change
%
Change
Total Employment 123,190 137,610 14,420 12%
Total payroll employment 116,030 129,390 13,360 12% Total private 101,750 114,290 12,540 12% Natural resources and mining 3,600 4,430 830 23%
Mining and logging 550 570 20 4%
Construction 5,290 6,600 1,310 25% Manufacturing 10,740 11,690 950 9% Durable goods 7,170 7,500 330 5%
Wood product manufacturing 2,610 2,670 60 2%
Trade, transportation, and utilities 25,020 26,430 1,410 6% Wholesale trade 3,190 3,290 100 3% Retail trade 18,110 19,090 980 5%
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 3,720 4,050 330 9%
Information 1,410 1,410 0 0% Financial activities 5,310 5,630 320 6% Professional and business services 9,290 10,650 1,360 15%
Private educational and health services 21,830 25,790 3,960 18%
Private educational services 1,000 1,180 180 18% Health care and social assistance 20,830 24,610 3,780 18% Health care 18,480 21,710 3,230 17%
Leisure and hospitality 14,580 16,510 1,930 13%
Accommodation and food services 12,700 14,290 1,590 13% Other services and private households 4,680 5,150 470 10% Government 14,280 15,100 820 6%
Federal government 2,010 2,180 170 8%
Federal government post office 450 450 0 0% State government 2,750 2,910 160 6% Local government 9,520 10,010 490 5%
Local education 6,790 7,160 370 5%
Self-employment 7,160 8,220 1,060 15%
Using the total employment date in Figure 20, we know how many people each industry employed in 2017 and a projection for those figures through 2027. As a result, we can calculate
the annual job growth for the region per industry. Using the foregoing data, and assuming that
the rates remain constant, a sample jobs forecast for the Rogue Valley region can be calculated
through 2039, as seen in Figure 21.
194 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections data (June 26, 2018), available at:
www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/92203/Rogue+Valley+Industry+Employment+Projections+2017-2027?version=1.5 (Excel warning)
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Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast Jackson and Josephine Counties by Industry Sector
In total, if the job growth rates projected for 2017-2027 are maintained for the next two decades,
Southern Oregon will grow by 28,840 jobs by 2039.
iv. Regional Competitiveness Generally, employers make locational decisions based upon a region’s competitive position for
their industry. They then choose between communities within that region based upon localized
factors. So, identifying industries in which the region can become competitive is an important
step in developing land use policies and strategies to capture economic development potential for which Jackson County is well positioned.
Figure 22: Jackson County Shift-Share Analysis 2010-2017195
Major Industry
LQ U.S. Growth rate196 Region Shift197
2010 2017 Percent Net Percent Net
Farm Employment 1.63 1.48 13.44 365 -10.3 -280
Forestry, Fishing, and Related 3.95 4.02 13.44 286 1 21
Mining 0.32 0.53 13.44 35 74.74 194
Construction 1 1.05 13.44 742 4.9 271
Manufacturing 0.9 1.08 13.44 924 20.57 1,414
195 Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP), Shift-Share Analysis of Employment Growth Jackson County, 2010-2017 (data analyzed Nov. 15, 2018), available at: oregon.reaproject.org/analysis/shift-
share/tools/410029/2010/2017/. 196 The change in local employment that would have occurred for a specific industry had it grown at the national
growth rate of all industries combined. 197 The additional gain (or loss) in local employment for a specific industry beyond the national growth and industry
mix effects resulting from the industry growing faster (or slower) than the same industry nationally. This does not represent actual jobs lost but jobs that could have been created had the region kept up with the national growth rate.
Industry Sector
Number of
Jobs in
2017195
Number of
Jobs in
2027196
Forecasted
Change in
Jobs through
2027197
Forecasted
Annual Change
in Jobs198
Total Job Growth
Forecast Southern
Oregon 2019
through 2039199
Construction & Natural Resources 8,890 11,030 2,140 214 4,280
Manufacturing 10,740 11,690 950 95 1,900
Transportation & Utlilities 3,720 4,050 330 33 660
Wholesale Trade 3,190 3,290 100 10 200
Subtotal Industrial Jobs 26,540 30,060 3,520 352 7,040
Retail Trade 18,110 19,090 980 98 1,960
Financial 5,310 5,630 320 32 640
Services (professional, business, health,
private education, hospitality, information)47,110 54,360 7,250 725 14,500
Subtotal Commercial/Services Jobs 70,530 79,080 8,550 855 17,100
Institutional/Government 14,280 15,100 820 82 1,640
Other 11,840 13,370 1,530 153 3,060
Total New Jobs 123,190 137,610 14,420 1,442 28,840
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Retail Trade 1.4 1.39 13.44 2,079 -1.45 -225
Transportation and Warehousing 0.91 0.82 13.44 424 -14.78 -466
Information 1.09 0.79 13.44 298 -29.55 -655
Finance and Insurance 0.71 0.65 13.44 553 -10.72 -441
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1.19 1.16 13.44 773 -3.52 -203
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 0.71 0.71 13.44 712 -1.82 -96
Management of Companies and Enterprises 1.36 0.74 13.44 233 -60.57 -1,051
Administrative and Waste Services 0.83 0.77 13.44 729 -9.23 -501
Educational Services 0.55 0.6 13.44 190 10.04 142
Health Care and Social Assistance 1.28 1.31 13.44 2,064 2.11 324
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1.37 1.34 13.44 441 -3.53 -116
Accommodation and Food Services 1.08 1.16 13.44 1,097 8.11 662
Other Services (except Public Administration) 0.98 0.98 13.44 810 -0.54 -32
Federal Civilian 0.93 0.98 13.44 239 4.74 85
Military 0.43 0.43 13.44 77 -0.76 -4
State Government 0.59 0.29 13.44 265 -51.42 -1,016
Local Government 0.78 0.86 13.44 940 8.99 629
Other/Suppressed Industries198 0.69 0.69 13.44 384 0.07 2
Total Employment 1 1 13.44 14,662 -1.23 -1,343
See Figure 22 for how specific industries are doing in the Rogue Valley as compared to the
national average. The shift-share column (LQ) measures the degree to which an industry sector
has outperformed the nation within that industry’s employment levels during a specified time
period. If the regional growth in an industry outpaced the change in the national share then there would be a positive (greater than 1) shift share.
If an industry sector has out-performed in a shift share analysis and the concentration within that
industry also exceeds national averages in a Location Quotient (LQ) analysis, then those
industries are likely to be ones for which the region has exhibited durable comparative advantages.
Between 2010 and 2017, the region outperformed the nation in nine industries. Of these, mining,
manufacturing, educational services, and accommodation and food services outperformed the
nation by at least eight percent. Mining had the highest percent gain in employment relative to the nation during the period, however given how little mining industry the area had previously, this comes out to a gain of only 194 new jobs. The second strongest shift came from
manufacturing at 20.5 percent and with 1,414 new jobs.
198 The "Other/Suppressed Industries" category portrayed in this table represents a combined total of those industries
for which data were unavailable due to confidentiality restrictions. Those industries that are combined include: Utilities; Wholesale Trade.
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There are three industries that the region is lagging in significantly: management of Companies and Enterprises, Information, and State Government. Management of Companies and Enterprises
is a classification that involves employment in companies that run other types of smaller
companies. Although the previous Economic Element indicated that the region was substantially
ahead of the national curve (at 55 percent shift), the region is now significantly behind the national curve (at negative 60.57 shift). This makes sense given the somewhat remote location of the region from a major city and the levels of expertise that would typically be required in this
type of industry.
The Information industry includes publishing, software, broadcast, and internet industries. It is unclear why the region is behind by almost 30 percent; however, it may have to do with the Southern Oregon region lacking a research university, which would attract younger information
professionals. The relative proximity of Silicon Valley (less than 400 miles away) probably
contributes to a brain-drain of these young workers. The lack of growth in State Government
jobs makes sense because most of the Oregon governmental offices are in the state capital, Salem, or other parts of the Willamette Valley.
v. Economic Development Context
In addition to measuring economic data, Statewide Planning Goal 9 encourages cities to consider traits in their local economies that have yet to be numerically qualified. These traits are evaluated
below through an analysis of Central Point’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
Figure 23: Central Point’s Qualitative Trends199
Trait Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Location, size, and buying
power of markets
Relatively low
percentage of large retail compared to population.
National exposure with specialty food industry.
Relatively low per-
household income.
If relative wages can
be increased, Central Point can capitalize
on expanding population.
Failure to capture proportional growth
over time, especially in specialty foods.
Economic development
efforts and programs
Direct communication and collaboration
between City staff and local businesses.
Few large employers
within city limits the role of the City in setting the
policy and agenda for regional economic
development.
If City can add a few
large employers in a particular sector, the
City will be able to drive regional policy
in that area.
Capitalizing on this opportunity will require a coordinated strategy.
Transportation facilities City has good freeway and airport access.
Central Point's I-5 interchange (Exit 33) is an old design with limited capacity.
Expansion of Exit 35
would add an additional freeway
interchange and opportunities for key
industries to locate there.
Growth around Exit 35 needs to help economic
development without threatening the function
of the interchange.
199 See City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 (2013) citing City of Central Point.
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Public facilities and
services
City has practical
approach to its public facility needs and
requirements.
City's water is supplied
by the Medford Water Commission and sewage
treatment is provided by the Regional Water
Reclamation Facility operated by the City of
Medford under long-term agreements.
City needs to ensure that it continues to
have adequate capacity to serve
future employment demands.
Maintaining a good
relationship with the City of Medford and the
Medford Water Commission is
important to avoid future service disputes
or too large an increase in rates.
Workforce
development
City's workforce has
access to Rogue Community College
(RCC), Southern Oregon University (SOU), the
Job Council, and other training programs.
Regionally, there are few
post-graduate degree opportunities, no
research university, and no proactive regional
programs to encourage college graduates to
locate to the area. High school drop-outs have
limited employability.
Advocate for training and programs that
directly benefit Central Point
employers. Support local schools to
minimize high school drop-out rates.
High school drop outs
have limited employability and
demand disproportionate
services.
Regulatory
barriers
The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional
Problem-Solving Plan ("RPS") should
encourage growth in the Tolo area and Central
Point could capitalize on the advantages present.
The RPS may require
additional planning work.
Capitalize on the opportunity for
targeted employment growth in the Tolo
area.
Delays in making the
Tolo area market ready.
89
vi. Competitive Position Summary
When all the regional and localized factors are synthesized, there appear to be at least four target
industry sectors where the City of Central Point exhibits a strong and durable competitive
position. These are the same industries identified in the 2013 Economic Element, and the conclusions in 2013 remain accurate in 2019.
• The specialty foods cluster that includes Lillie Belle Farms chocolates, Rogue Creamery,
and the nearby Seven Oaks Farm just outside Central Point’s municipal boundary represents a small but unique opportunity for growth.
• Truck transportation and related support industries pay high wages to City residents and
is a sector that both the Region and the City are well positioned to serve.
• Planned population growth in Central Point in the regional plan is expected to support
expanded retail commercial within the City as the buying power of the City’s residential
base expands.
• Planned population growth is also likely to support expanded healthcare services in the
City. Overall, this sector is expected to grow rapidly within the region as exemplified by
the Providence Medical Group building on Front Street. Although existing investments in
Medford hospitals are likely to concentrate much of the regional growth, Central Point has an opportunity to keep pace with the growth in this sector.
Central Point also has some unique spatial characteristics that may support future economic
activities in two other sectors due to the Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Problem-Solving
Plan (“RPS”). Specifically, there are aggregate employment uses and Erickson Air Crane that are located within the Tolo Urban Reserve Areas. These are both employer types with special needs, but the areas inclusion in the RPS Plan may present opportunities to work with these employers
for mutual benefit.
vii. Assessment of Central Point’s Economic Development Potential The DLCD’s Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook recommends assessing
the City’s economic potential based on several factors. See Figure 24 for subjective scoring on
each of Central Point’s competitive market advantages and disadvantages.
Central Point is located well in relation to markets and key transportation facilities. It is situated halfway between two major cities, Portland and San Francisco, is located on Interstate 5, and has
ready access to the Rogue Valley International Airport. The drawbacks are that it is not located
close to a major metro area and most flights from the airport require connecting flights at a major
hub. Central Point has excellent public facilities like water and sewer. There are rarely any service
disruptions.
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Central Point has fair access to labor markets. Its relative isolation from a major population center does increase costs and decreases its ready access. The same is true with materials and
energy, aside from some natural resources like timber. But, as Section 5, Subsection iv
demonstrates above, the Southern Oregon region is competitive in several labor markets.
Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential
Description Score
Location relative to markets 3
Availability of key transportation facilities 3
Key public facilities (water, sewer, etc.) 4
Labor Market (cost and access) 2
Materials and energy (availability and cost) 2
Necessary support services 3
Pollution control issues 3
Education and technical training 2
Other (such as land availability) 3
Total 25
Scores: 1= poor, 2 = fair, 3 = good, 4 = excellent
Central Point has good access to necessary support services. What businesses cannot get internally or in near-by Medford, they can get at a nearby major city like Portland, or probably
find online.
Central Point has few pollution control issues, although the wildfire smoke in the summer
months does harm to the local economy and industries like tourism.
The City has fair access to education and technical training. The area hosts both Rogue
Community College (RCC) and Southern Oregon University (SOU). Other than that, most
students must travel either to the Oregon Institute of Technology in nearby Klamath Falls, to a
state school like the University of Oregon and Oregon State University in the Willamette Valley, or out of state altogether.
Lastly, Central Point has good access to other market advantages, such as a ready supply of land
in the Rogue Valley and surrounding communities.
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viii. Central Point’s Projected Job Growth
Next, a forecast for Central Point’s future job growth needs to be calculated. This is key to
determining how much land is needed per industry category in Central Point through 2039. The
following analysis is based on Central Point’s population compared to the regional population. That population percentage is then applied to the regional job forecast.
For example, given that the population of Jackson County in 2018 was 219,270200 and the
population of Josephine County is 87,487,201 and Central Point has 19,101 people,202 the City of
Central Point currently has approximately 6.22 percent of the regional population. As a result, we can assume that Central Point will capture approximately 6.22 percent of jobs created regionally in the year 2019.203
By 2039, Central Point will grow by approximately 7,216 residents.204 This means that by 2039,
Central Point will have approximately 7.06 percent of the regional population because Jackson County will have 264,951 people and Josephine County 107,470 people. See Figure 25. As a result, we can assume that Central Point will capture approximately 7.06 percent of jobs created
regionally in the year 2039.205
But we need to know more than how many jobs are created in the year 2019 or in the year 2039—we need to know how many jobs will be created every year between 2019 and 2039 to get the total number of employment acres Central Point is going to need. Unfortunately, we only
have the regional job data for those individual years, the regional and city population data, and
what we have calculated to be Central Point’s share of the region’s job growth. However, if we
take an average of Central Point’s population share (that is, the average of 6.22 percent and 7.06 percent), we can estimate the average percentage of the regional population that Central Point will capture over the next 20 years, which is 6.64 percent. As a result, we can assume that
Central Point will capture approximately 6.64 percent of the new jobs created regionally between
2019 and 2039.
Using the data in Figure 25, we can apply Central Point’s projected population rates to forecast
the number of jobs that Central Point will likely gain in each industry from 2019 to 2039. See
Figure 26 for the forecasted job numbers. Ultimately these numbers show that by 2039, Central
200 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018 through 2068 47 (June 30, 2018), available at:
www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf (PDF warning). 201 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Josephine County Coordinated Population Forecast 2015 through 2065 33 (June 2015), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Josephine_Forecast_Report_201506.pdf (PDF warning). 202 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018 through 2068. 203 Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population, not that it has an equal percentage of total jobs now existing. 204 That is Central Point’s forecasted 2039 population less the estimated 2018 population from Figure 25 (26,317 – 19,101 = 7,216). 205 Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population, not that it has an equal percentage of total jobs now existing.
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Point will add 1,915 new jobs. This means that Central Point will need employment land to house these new workers.
Figure 25: Central Point’s population growth rate
Figure 26: Central Point's 20-year job forecast by industry
Based on the foregoing data, Central Point will need enough employment lands over the next 20
years for approximately 1,948 new jobs.
City/County Estimated 2019 Estimated 2039
Average
Popualtion Share,
2019-2039215
Central Point's Population217 19,101 26,317
Jackson County's Population216 219,270 264,951
Josephine County's Population218 86,423 97,377
Total Population of Both Counties 305,693 362,328
Central Point's Capture Rate of Job Growth 6.2%7.3%6.8%
Source: 2019 PRC Coordinated Population Forecast, Jackson and Josephine Counties
Industry Sector
Southern Oregon's
20-Year Job
Forecast202
Central Point's Total Job
Growth Capture at 6.8%
of Regional Forecast
(2039)
Construction & Natural Resources 4,280 289
Manufacturing 1,900 128
Transportation & Utlilities 660 45
Wholesale Trade 200 14
Subtotal Industrial Jobs 7,040 476
Retail Trade 1,960 132
Financial 640 43
Services (professional, business, health,
private education, hospitality, information)14,500 980
Subtotal Commercial/Services Jobs 17,100 1,155
Institutional/Government 1,640 111
Other 3,060 207
Total New Jobs 28,840 1,948
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Section 6: Land Demand
Introduction This section projects the City of Central Point’s short term (2019-2024) and long-
term (2019-2039) supply of land needed to satisfy employment projections.
Having reviewed economic trends on a national, state, regional, and local level, it is important to use that information to identify economic development opportunities that are likely to expand or locate in or near Central Point within the next twenty years. Understanding the types of sites
needed will enable the City to successfully implement its economic development objectives.
Legal Requirements Central Point must have adequate supplies of land to meet employment needs for a range of employment opportunities. These lands must be adequate to capitalize on the City’s economic opportunities in terms of both quantity and type.
Central Point is required to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses
that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand within the city’s urban growth boundary. OAR 660-009-0015. A use or category of use will be reasonably expected to expand or locate to Central Point if it possesses the appropriate locational factors for the use or category of use.
Economic Growth Rate Forecast
It is expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a whole across all industries over the next twenty years and may reasonably be expected to exceed
regional growth rates in target industries. Central Point’s population is projected to grow at 1.5%
through 2039, see Figure 17 supra.
However, consistent with the City’s competitive positions described above there are at least three sectors where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out-
perform the overall regional growth. Those sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking
and warehousing, and retail. It is in these three industry sectors that the State’s regional forecast
is appropriately adjusted upward to reflect localized opportunities (See Figure 27). i. Specialty Food Manufacturing
This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth
assumptions in the manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this niche sector but may buoy a slight edge over regional growth rates. However, exceptional growth in this sector is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in
the future materializes, then that may warrant a re-evaluation of the overall manufacturing
employment growth forecast in the Economic Element.
ii. Trucking and Warehousing
The trucking and warehousing industry is strong regionally with higher than average
employment concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much
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higher than regional or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents an excellent opportunity to expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relatively high
wages. Also, this industry has potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry that
creates the potential to outpace overall regional growth to a modest degree.
Central Point is also uniquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regional comparative advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan
contemplates that the “Tolo” area is well situated for this type of economic activity north of
Interchange 35 which already serves industrial traffic to White City and aggregate resource
traffic in the area. There is very little residential and commercial development around the interchange. No new residential development is contemplated in the regional plan, so this area is well positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded transportation and warehousing
uses.
However, the Tolo area is constrained because of a relative lack of water service. Any attempt to take advantage of this area would require a large investment to increase water and provide other necessary utilities.
iii. Retail
Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point. Retail trade and associated employment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth is
essentially consumer growth. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that retail trade in Central Point
will outpace the two-county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average population
growth as set out in the County’s coordinated population forecast for the City. From an industry categorization versus land use perspective there are some small but important differences. Land use terminology included within the retail category includes restaurants and bars while
restaurants are categorized in the leisure and hostility industry sectors, so growth in this sector is
appropriately consistent with the retail uses in both categorization schemes such as a boutique.
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry
Figure 27 depicts a reasonable 10-year planned growth rate by industry for the City of Central
Point. This growth rate utilizes the state’s regional forecast for all industries through 2027 and
shows how much each industry is likely to grow both statewide and in the City of Central Point.
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Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry206
This is the best and most recent data available for regional industry growth projections over the
mid-term (10 years). This economic element assumes that the rates will remain constant through
2039.
i. Site Requirements Analysis
Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. The Economic Element and Buildable Land
Inventory essentially breaks the City’s employment land inventory by employment category.
Within these general development pattern types, the Economic Element analyzes demand and supply of large, medium and small sites. In practice, there are no discrete size breaks that
differentiate between large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze different sizes
because the site requirements do vary with firm size. Figure 28 describes the qualitative site
requirements for each of the general development pattern.
206 The data in the middle column is from the Gail Kiles Krumenauer, Senior Economic Analyst at the Oregon
Employment Department, Oregon Employment Industry Projections 2017-2027 (June 26, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/92203/Oregon+Industry+Employment+Projections+2017-2027?version=1.7
(Excel Warning). The data in the right column is from Guy Tauer, Regional Economist at the Oregon Employment Department, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections 2017-2027, available at:
www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/92203/Rogue+Valley+Industry+Employment+Projections+2017-2027?version=1.5 (Excel Warning).
Industry Sector
State % Change,
2017-2027
Central Point %
Change, 2017-2027
Total Private 12.9%12.0%
Natural Resources and Mining 11.1%23.0%
Construction 17.5%25.0%
Manufacturing 6.7%9.0%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 10.5%6.0%
Wholesale 8.1%3.0%
Retail 9.4%5.0%
Transportation, Warehousinf & Utilities 17.3%9.0%
Leisure and Hospitality 13.1%13.0%
Professional & Business Services 17.0%15.0%
Financial 4.9%6.0%
Other Services 10.6%10.0%
Information 10.2%0.0%
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Figure 28: General Development Pattern Site Requirements
Type Public Facility and Service
Requirements
Transportation
Facility Requirements;
Access to customers and workforce
Size Cat./ Typical Site Size (acres)
Discussion of Site Requirements by Size Category Retail Commercial Retail commercial uses typically
require all urban facilities and
services such as water, sewer, storm
drainage, police and fire protection,
electricity, natural gas, and modern
communications systems
Retail commercial development requires
premium access and excellent visibility for customer attraction. Foot traffic and access to public transportation can also
be important.
Large/ 8-30 Large commercial sites tend to cluster within larger blocks of commercial that can be 100 acres or more. Outdoor
storage sales can demand very large sites. These users will anchor commercial areas and attract customers for medium
and small users. Must be located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and state highways.
Med./
2-7 Medium commercial uses can locate within larger blocks of commercial or may function as a stand-alone community
commercial use. Must be located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and collectors if not stat highways
Small/
0.5-2 Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by medium and large retail commercial. These tend to be
specialty sales that serve niche retail markets. Office Office uses typically
require all urban facilities and
services such as water, sewer, storm
drainage, police and fire protection,
electricity, natural gas, and modern
communications systems
Consumer driven
office users like branch banks &
insurance sales must have good visibility
and access. Other office uses only need
reasonably direct access to the regional
transportation network. Airport
access can be essential
Large/ 3.5-12 Large office uses will require excellent access to the regional transportation network because they have large
workforces that require capacity in the system. Large office uses can locate in commercial or industrial areas depending
on the specific requirements of the enterprise.
Med./ 1-3.5 Medium office uses that require customer significant access will seek out and compete for commercial zoned space.
Other medium office uses may demand business park space intermixed with light industrial uses.
Small/
0.25-1
Small office uses are the uses that “fill in” commercial and
industrial areas because their needs are the most varied and requirements the most flexible Industrial Industrial uses may
or may not require all urban services.
However, many industrial uses will
have very specific and large demands
for certain services like power or
sewage capacity
Access for freight is a
top priority and may be via truck and/or
rail. Industrial uses sometimes accept more remote locations to avoid congestion
and that support freight movements.
Airport access is often important.
Large/ 15-300 Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on regional, national or internal scales. Factors that affect demand depends on the very specific requirements of the enterprise that are difficult to predict a priori.
Med/ 3-14 Medium industrial uses tend to be price sensitive and seek
out space within business or office parks. They sometimes require property ownership that will also result in low real
estate overhead in relation to the enterprise.
Small/ 0.5-2.5 Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is a priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight
movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites themselves.
ii. Target Industries’ Unique Site Requirements
In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the site requirements specific to Central Point’s target industries warrant more detailed consideration.
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Specialty Food Products Manufacturing
The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in specialty food product manufacturing in
Central Point have small retail storefronts that accompany their manufacturing businesses. The sites are generally small and there is limited room to expand operations on the existing sites. The segment of Highway 99 where these uses are located have good access to I-5. From there they
have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99. However, the narrow strip between Highway
99 and the railroad tracks creates a practical/physical limit on future expansion. Central Point
should keep lines of communication open with these businesses to assure that the site requirements for any expansion are well understood by staff and policy makers.
Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Services
These businesses require both office space and trucking facilities that are often co-located. Site requirements may also include space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver accommodations and inter-modal freight handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is
typically required. Adequate expansion area is often a factor when selecting a site so that
expansion can be accommodated without the need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate
freeway is essential and must be located in areas that are relatively free from congestion to enable efficient freight movements. Aside from transportation facilities, power, and modern communications, some transportation uses may not necessarily require the full complement of
other urban facilities and services.
Retail Trade Convenient access to I-5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements from I-5 in Central
Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and may raise site
requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street arterial is good and
access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts regional shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and medium retailers cannot be met. The
anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and medium
retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor.
As the City’s residential neighborhoods expand to the west and north there is a need for additional retail, and office, development to serve the particular commercial needs, both
commercial and office, of the surrounding neighborhoods. The design and size of these
commercial centers need to be based on the ultimate long-term density and area of the
neighborhood and designed to complement the neighborhood’s residential character. The
location and design of these commercial centers need to support and encourage pedestrian access from the serving neighborhood. For land use planning purposes these centers are referred to as
Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
Long-Term Land Demand Estimate
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This section calculates Central Point’s land demand estimate for the next 20 years. Figure 21 above provides the total number of jobs forecasted to be created in Southern Oregon through
2039. Figure 25 calculates that Central Point should capture approximately 6.64 percent of these
new jobs. Figure 26 calculates that this equals approximately 1,915 new jobs for Central Point
and allocates them by industry. Employment land demand estimates can be projected using a variety of techniques, but this
Economic Element calculates the land needs by converting the projected population growth rates
into projected employees and then using average employee space needs and floor area ratios to
project future land needs. See Figure 32 for the estimate of employee density per acre. Then these land needs are aggregated by the development pattern type demanded by each industry so that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply calculations.
Each of these steps requires assumptions about expected ratios and land development
efficiencies.
iii. Estimate of Needed Employment Lands
In order to estimate the number of acres needed by 2039 for all Central Point’s industries, this
section uses an employee per acre ratio. According to the DLCD’s Industrial & Other
Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, there are typically 8-12 industrial sector jobs per acre, 14-20 commercial and service sector jobs per acre, 6-10 institutional and government jobs per acre, and 6-10 other employment sector jobs per acre.207
Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039
Figure 30 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how
many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD’s employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the City. As a result, Central Point will need 47 new net acres in the aggregate by 2039.
However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial,
institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add
207 DLCD’s Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46.
Land Use Classification Number of Jobs224
Jobs/Buildable Acre
Ratio from DLCD225
Employment
Buildable Acres
Needed226
Existing Buildable
Acre227 Buildable Acreage
Surplus/Shortage
Industrial 1,658 8
Commercial/Service 4,407 14
Institutional/Gov't 892 6
Other Services & Self-
Employment 740 6
Total 7,697 22 - - -
Industrial 476 8 59 87 27
Commercial/Service 1,155 14 83 61 (21)
Institutional/Gov't 111 6 18 - (18)
Other Services & Self-
Employment 207 6 34 - (34)
Total 1,948 142 148 (47)
Note: Employment Gross Acres Needed calculated using Buildable Acres adjusted for right-of-way (25%)2017 Jobs228Jobs Added by 203922999
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approximately 73 gross acres of commercial, institutional, and other land types of lands by 2039.208 See Figure 30.
Figure 30: Gross Acres Needed209
Another way to estimate the land demand is to compare the above result to the conclusions
reached in other parts of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. For example, Central Point’s
Economic Element 2013-2033 found that the City would need between 59 and 67 acres by
2033. See also Central Point’s Land Use Element 2018-2038, which made the same findings.
The previous Economic Element estimated that Central Point needs approximately 13 acres of
employment lands per 1,000 residents.210 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101
people211 and the 2039 population is projected to be around 26,317.212 This increase of
approximately 7,216 residents means that Central Point would need a total of 93.8 additional acres for employment purposes in the long-term.213 But, because there is a surplus of
approximately 23 Industrial site acres, Central Point actually needs 65 acres.214
Conclusion In conclusion, based on Central Point’s projected job capture rate, the
Comprehensive Plan’s previous calculations, and the estimated ratio of residents to land use needs, Central Point has a forecasted demand of 65 to 74 additional net acres for employment
purposes for the 2019 to 2039 planning period.
Short-Term Land Demand Estimate
By quartering the numbers from the long-term estimate, the short-term land employment use
needs can be determined. As a result, Central Point will need 18 additional net acres for the
next five years (2019-2024). See Figure 30.
Inventory of Employment Lands
After identifying economic opportunities and estimating land demand, the next step in the Goal 9
208 That is, (21.1714) + (18.1667) + (33.8333) = (73.1714). 209 See Figure 29. Rounded to the nearest tenth. 210 Central Point Land Use Element 2018 at 27. 211 Id. at 9. 212 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 47 Documents (May 2018). 213 That is, (((26,707-19,101)/1000)*13 acres) 214 That is, 93.8 acres – 28.395.
Sector
New Buildable Acres
Needed by 2039
Gross Employment
Acres Needed, 2019-
2039
Short-Term Gross Acres
Needed, 2019-2024
Industrial - - -
Commercial/Service 21 27 7
Institutional/Government 18 23 6
Other/Uncovered Employment 34 43 11
Total Employment 74 93 23
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process is to evaluate the current land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which there is a projected demand over the next twenty years. Central Point updates its general buildable lands
information on a regular basis and this information has been used as the starting point to analyze
the land base from a more specific Goal 9 perspective.
The Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 has been published by the City of Central Point as a separate document. The above-conclusion that Central Point needs
65 to 73 additional net acres by 2039 considers the findings of the BLI, including that there is
a slight surplus of industrial lands.
i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency
The City of Central Point’s current built employment land base has relatively limited
redevelopment potential. According to the BLI, the City only has 8.95 acres of total commercial
lands and 36.18 acres of industrial lands that are redevelopable.215 This configuration does not lend itself well to redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the supply and demand for sites over a twenty-year period because this would require the demolition and aggregation of
parcels. While this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is unlikely to be
economically viable in Central Point on a scale that would alter long-term supply and demand
projections for employment lands. This quantitative determination does not mean that there are not good qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along Highway 99.
There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along Table Rock Road.216 Several
parcels are zoned residential and that are large enough to be be developed for employment uses. Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is an area where relatively inexpensive small industrial sites are available to own and where there are limited development
requirements that add overhead. In some ways, this area is important employment land for
certain types of firms that have ever fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost-
effective. As such, aggressive redevelopment planning policies for this area may seem to be a great aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and unintended economic consequences.
Moreover, without relatively massive financial incentives for significant redevelopment that
would change the overall quality of development in this area, lesser redevelopment policies tend
to have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development projects that would
trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties.
ii. Vacant Lands
According to the BLI, most of the City’s vacant acreage consists of Medium Industrial lands, as
well as Large and Medium Retail.217 The City has barely any vacant acreage allocated predominantly to office use of any kind. It also has little acreage dedicated to small retail.
However, according the analysis in this Economic Element, Central Point’s economy will likely
215 Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 6, Tables 3 and 4. 216 See Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 13. 217 Id. at 7, Figure 3.
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have its strongest growth in industries that require retail and office space. As a result, the City needs to increase its buildable lands in these categories.
Further, according to the BLI, most of the vacant number of lots are in small retail (even though
there is little total acreage).218 Further, there are few vacant lots of any kind for offices, large retail, and large industrial.219 As a result, the City will need more parcels for offices of every size and for large industrial and large retail.
Another consideration in the employment land demand and current employment land inventory
is the spatial relationship between existing inventory and future demand. As the City’s residential neighborhoods (UGB) expand to the west and north additional employment lands will be needed for Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers. As would be expected the City’s
current employment land inventory (planned and zoned) is not spatially appropriate for these
new expanding neighborhoods, and in terms of inventory are considered excess supply.
Consequently, there will be a need to discount some of these lands when addressing the supply need for new Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
iii. Conclusion
A stable and diverse economy that provides access to employment opportunities for Central Point’s growing population is fundamental to providing a livable community consistent with the City’s vision and preferred future. Based on the analysis herein, the City will experience growth
across all employment categories and is particularly well positioned to experience growth in
specialty foods, trucking and transportation, healthcare and retail services. However, proactive
and effective strategies will be necessary to attract, retain and expand a diverse business environment to provide for the City’s employment needs as they change over time. To accomplish this, the City recognizes the following considerations as essential to fostering an
effective economic development program in Central Point:
1. Collaboration, Partnership & Comparative Advantages Must Be Leveraged. Effective economic development actions necessary to diversify the City’s economic base requires
an understanding of, and a careful balance between regional cooperation and competition.
It is important to understand and pro-actively participate in the broader national, state,
and regional economic development discussions. Participating in regional economic
development programs like Southern Oregon Regional Development, Inc. (SOREDI) and the Rogue Valley Workforce Development Council can improve the regional economic
climate and a strong regional economy will benefit all communities within the region.
Most importantly, to be an effective participant the City must recognize its competitive
advantage within the region and compete for those economic development opportunities
within the region for which Central Point is well positioned.
2. Adequate Land Supply and Development Site Characteristics Needed to be Competitive:
The City will need to provide adequate land supply in terms of both acreage and
development site characteristics to effectively respond to business development needs.
218 Id. 219 Id.
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This need is particularly true for Neighborhood Commercial lands as the City expands its urban growth boundary. At this time, the City does not have enough employment lands to
meet the projected economic needs over the next 20 years. Population growth and job
forecasts indicate that the City will need more lands for Office, Retail and Institutional
employment uses with a focus on development sites suitable for medium and large office and retail uses and availability of vacant buildings for expanding small businesses (i.e. flex-space). Over the 2019-2039 planning period, the City will need to expand the UGB
to ensure an adequate 5-year and 20-year supply of buildable employment land (Table
30).
3. Dynamic Economic Conditions Require Proactive and Responsive Management. The economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities for which the City is well
positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic economic forces require
the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. They
also require the City to engage in sustained analysis of national, state, and local economic conditions. Only when the City is actively monitoring its economy will it be poised to take advantage of good opportunities and guide the community through any turbulent
times.
Furthermore, the pursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance between short-term and long-term economic objectives. The City recognizes that some opportunities may warrant short-term incentives to achieve longer term employment or
property tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long-term
benefit and may not warrant the short-term fiscal cost of incentives.
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Section 7: Goals and Policies
Statewide Planning Goal 9 requires that comprehensive plans and policies contribute to a stable
and healthy economy in all regions of the state. This section sets forth the City of Central Point’s
economic development goals and policies.
Goal 1 To actively promote a strong, diversified, and sustainable local economy, that reinforces Central Point’s “small town feel”220 and family orientation while
preserving or enhancing the quality of life in the community as a place to live,
work, and play.
Because this Economic Element concludes that there will be economic uncertainty in the short-term, it is important that Central Point work to diversify
and strengthen its economy. By continuing to analyze economic trends, Central
Point will be able to continue growing strong throughout the 2019-2039 planning
period. Goal 2 To create meaningful incentives to encourage and support economic
development;
Central Point has historically been a bedroom community where people live but work elsewhere. In order to maintain a strong tax base and to ensure continued economic prosperity, Central Point must take an active role in encouraging
economic development.
Goal 3 To encourage and promote the development, redevelopment, and enhancement of retail and office areas to achieve a vibrant shopping, entertainment, living and working experience in the downtown area.
This goal is important because Central Point needs a vibrant downtown in order to
ensure future economic prosperity. Further, based on the current BLI and the projected land use needs, Central Point is going to need targeted redevelopment strategies to encourage these types of activities in the future.
Goal 4 To encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, and
state agencies, and local businesses concerning economic development, education, and workforce development.
The City cannot reach its goals without the assistance of others. As a result, the
City needs to be receptive to suggestions and aid from others and also needs to be
active in communicating its needs and plans. Goal 5 To encourage and support growth, particularly in the targeted industries
(respecialty food manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors).
220 As defined in the Urbanization Element of the Comprehensive Plan
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These targeted industries are where the City could make strides. It is important
that the City help maintain and grow these industries now and in the future.
Goal 6 To maintain at all times an adequate supply of suitable short-term (five-year) employment lands.
Central Point does not have an adequate short-term supply of lands for
institutional/government and other employment types. As a result, the City should
plan to add to the land supply in the near future. Goal 7 To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual
identifying and monitoring economic development strategies and programs
available to the City.
Goal 8 Create a positive environment for industrial, commercial and institutional job
growth and development by maintaining an adequate land supply; providing a
local development review process that is predictable, responsive, and efficient;
and delivering high quality public facilities and services. Goal 9 Assure, through the UGB process, that adequate commercial lands are planned
and designated for the development of pedestrian oriented neighborhood
commercial centers to serve the City’s new residential neighborhoods.
The City’s economic development goals will be managed through the following policies:
Policy 1: Participation
The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming of alternative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including education
and workforce development that are consistent with the City’s economic development goals.
Policy 2: Refine Policies
The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and fiscal policies as they
relate to economic development to ensure that the City’s economic development programming
can be effectively implemented.
Policy 3: Monitor Long-Term Consequences
Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can
be demonstrated that the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and
the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City.
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Policy 4: Small Businesses
The City shall pursue and encourage development of leasable employment buildings (i.e. flex-
space) to create opportunities to expand, retain and attract small businesses to Central Point’s
employment districts. Policy 5: Business Innovation
Encourage innovation, research, development, and commercialization of new technologies,
products, and services through responsive regulations and public sector approaches. Policy 6: Tolo Area
The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, continue planning the Exit 35 area—also
called “Area CP-1B (Tolo)”—in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic opportunities, especially for transportation-based economic activity and truck/rail freight support services. This area also contains the aeronautics manufacturing company Erickson Air Crane and
serves aggregate uses; these uses have many specific and unique dimensions that should be
carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations applicable to this area need to account for
the site requirements of firms in these sectors. Because the area is currently constrained as a result of a lack of access to water, the City should begin planning how to make water more readily available so as to make these lands available for more economic development.
Policy 7: Monitor Regulations
The City shall periodically evaluate its regulations for employment related development, particularly as it relates to targeted industries, as well as compatibility with adjacent non-
employment lands to ensure that regulations are consistent with applicable best practices.
Regulations found to no longer be appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable
thereafter.
Policy 8: Adequate Short-Term Supply
The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and
transportation facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of competitive short-term buildable lands sufficient to meet employment needs within a five-year
period, particularly for the retail, specialty foods, professional, health care, and trucking sectors.
Policy 9: Prepare for Long-Term Needs
The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short-term employment lands in the medium and
large site categories equivalent to the twenty-year demand for those categories. The supply of
short-term employment land shall be reviewed and updated every four years consistent with the
Portland State University Population Research Center Coordinated Population Forecasting
schedule. When it is determined that the supply of land as measured in terms of number of sites and/or acreage in the medium and large site categories is inadequate to serve the twenty-year
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needs then the City shall amend its UGB to include additional short-term (5-year) employment lands.
Policy 10: Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
As the City’s expands the UGB it will include in the land use mix adequate commercial lands to for the development of Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers designed to compliment the
physical character and encourage neighborhood pedestrian use. Adequacy of the acreage needed
for Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers will be guided by the Regional Plan land use
allocation.
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Section 6: Land Demand
Introduction This section projects the City of Central Point’s short term (2019-2024) and long-
term (2019-2039) supply of land needed to satisfy employment projections.
Having reviewed economic trends on a national, state, regional, and local level, it is important to use that information to identify economic development opportunities that are likely to expand or locate in or near Central Point within the next twenty years. Understanding the types of sites
needed will enable the City to successfully implement its economic development objectives.
Legal Requirements Central Point must have adequate supplies of land to meet employment needs for a range of employment opportunities. These lands must be adequate to capitalize on the City’s economic opportunities in terms of both quantity and type.
Central Point is required to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses
that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand within the city’s urban growth boundary. OAR 660-009-0015. A use or category of use will be reasonably expected to expand or locate to Central Point if it possesses the appropriate locational factors for the use or category of use.
Economic Growth Rate Forecast
It is expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a whole across all industries over the next twenty years and may reasonably be expected to exceed
regional growth rates in target industries. Central Point’s population is projected to grow at 1.5%
through 2039, see Figure 17 supra.
However, consistent with the City’s competitive positions described above there are at least three sectors where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out-
perform the overall regional growth. Those sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking
and warehousing, and retail. It is in these three industry sectors that the State’s regional forecast
is appropriately adjusted upward to reflect localized opportunities (See Figure 27).
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing
This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth
assumptions in the manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this niche sector but may buoy a slight edge over regional growth rates. However, exceptional growth in this sector is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in
the future materializes, then that may warrant a re-evaluation of the overall manufacturing
employment growth forecast in the Economic Element.
ii. Trucking and Warehousing
The trucking and warehousing industry is strong regionally with higher than average
employment concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much
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higher than regional or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents an excellent opportunity to expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relatively high
wages. Also, this industry has potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry that
creates the potential to outpace overall regional growth to a modest degree.
Central Point is also uniquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regional comparative advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan
contemplates that the “Tolo” area is well situated for this type of economic activity north of
Interchange 35 which already serves industrial traffic to White City and aggregate resource
traffic in the area. There is very little residential and commercial development around the interchange. No new residential development is contemplated in the regional plan, so this area is well positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded transportation and warehousing
uses.
However, the Tolo area is constrained because of a relative lack of water service. Any attempt to take advantage of this area would require a large investment to increase water and provide other necessary utilities.
iii. Retail
Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point. Retail trade and associated employment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth is
essentially consumer growth. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that retail trade in Central Point
will outpace the two-county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average population
growth as set out in the County’s coordinated population forecast for the City. From an industry categorization versus land use perspective there are some small but important differences. Land use terminology included within the retail category includes restaurants and bars while
restaurants are categorized in the leisure and hostility industry sectors, so growth in this sector is
appropriately consistent with the retail uses in both categorization schemes such as a boutique.
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry
Figure 27 depicts a reasonable 10-year planned growth rate by industry for the City of Central
Point. This growth rate utilizes the state’s regional forecast for all industries through 2027 and
shows how much each industry is likely to grow both statewide and in the City of Central Point.
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Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry206
This is the best and most recent data available for regional industry growth projections over the
mid-term (10 years). This economic element assumes that the rates will remain constant through
2039.
i. Site Requirements Analysis
Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. The Economic Element and Buildable Land
Inventory essentially breaks the City’s employment land inventory by employment category.
Within these general development pattern types, the Economic Element analyzes demand and supply of large, medium and small sites. In practice, there are no discrete size breaks that
differentiate between large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze different sizes
because the site requirements do vary with firm size. Figure 28 describes the qualitative site
requirements for each of the general development pattern.
206 The data in the middle column is from the Gail Kiles Krumenauer, Senior Economic Analyst at the Oregon
Employment Department, Oregon Employment Industry Projections 2017-2027 (June 26, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/92203/Oregon+Industry+Employment+Projections+2017-2027?version=1.7
(Excel Warning). The data in the right column is from Guy Tauer, Regional Economist at the Oregon Employment Department, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections 2017-2027, available at:
www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/92203/Rogue+Valley+Industry+Employment+Projections+2017-2027?version=1.5 (Excel Warning).
Industry Sector
State % Change,
2017-2027
Central Point %
Change, 2017-2027
Total Private 12.9% 12.0%
Natural Resources and Mining 11.1% 23.0%
Construction 17.5% 25.0%
Manufacturing 6.7% 9.0%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 10.5% 6.0%
Wholesale 8.1% 3.0%
Retail 9.4% 5.0%
Transportation, Warehousinf & Utilities 17.3% 9.0%
Leisure and Hospitality 13.1% 13.0%
Professional & Business Services 17.0% 15.0%
Financial 4.9% 6.0%
Other Services 10.6% 10.0%
Information 10.2% 0.0%
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Figure 28: General Development Pattern Site Requirements
Type Public Facility and Service
Requirements
Transportation
Facility Requirements;
Access to customers and workforce
Size Cat./ Typical Site Size (acres)
Discussion of Site Requirements by Size Category Retail Commercial Retail commercial uses typically
require all urban facilities and
services such as water, sewer, storm
drainage, police and fire protection,
electricity, natural gas, and modern
communications systems
Retail commercial development requires
premium access and excellent visibility for customer attraction. Foot traffic and access to public transportation can also
be important.
Large/ 8-30 Large commercial sites tend to cluster within larger blocks of commercial that can be 100 acres or more. Outdoor storage sales can demand very large sites. These users will anchor commercial areas and attract customers for medium and small users. Must be located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and state highways. Med./
2-7 Medium commercial uses can locate within larger blocks of commercial or may function as a stand-alone community
commercial use. Must be located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and collectors if not stat highways
Small/
0.5-2 Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by medium and large retail commercial. These tend to be
specialty sales that serve niche retail markets. Office Office uses typically
require all urban facilities and
services such as water, sewer, storm
drainage, police and fire protection,
electricity, natural gas, and modern
communications systems
Consumer driven
office users like branch banks &
insurance sales must have good visibility
and access. Other office uses only need
reasonably direct access to the regional
transportation network. Airport
access can be essential
Large/ 3.5-12 Large office uses will require excellent access to the regional transportation network because they have large
workforces that require capacity in the system. Large office uses can locate in commercial or industrial areas depending
on the specific requirements of the enterprise.
Med./ 1-3.5 Medium office uses that require customer significant access will seek out and compete for commercial zoned space.
Other medium office uses may demand business park space intermixed with light industrial uses.
Small/
0.25-1
Small office uses are the uses that “fill in” commercial and
industrial areas because their needs are the most varied and requirements the most flexible Industrial Industrial uses may
or may not require all urban services.
However, many industrial uses will
have very specific and large demands
for certain services like power or
sewage capacity
Access for freight is a
top priority and may be via truck and/or
rail. Industrial uses sometimes accept more remote locations to avoid congestion
and that support freight movements.
Airport access is often important.
Large/ 15-300 Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on regional, national or internal scales. Factors that affect
demand depends on the very specific requirements of the enterprise that are difficult to predict a priori.
Med/ 3-14 Medium industrial uses tend to be price sensitive and seek
out space within business or office parks. They sometimes require property ownership that will also result in low real
estate overhead in relation to the enterprise.
Small/ 0.5-2.5 Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is a priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight
movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites themselves.
ii. Target Industries’ Unique Site Requirements
In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the site requirements specific to Central Point’s target industries warrant more detailed consideration.
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Specialty Food Products Manufacturing
The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in specialty food product manufacturing in
Central Point have small retail storefronts that accompany their manufacturing businesses. The sites are generally small and there is limited room to expand operations on the existing sites. The segment of Highway 99 where these uses are located have good access to I-5. From there they
have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99. However, the narrow strip between Highway
99 and the railroad tracks creates a practical/physical limit on future expansion. Central Point
should keep lines of communication open with these businesses to assure that the site requirements for any expansion are well understood by staff and policy makers.
Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Services
These businesses require both office space and trucking facilities that are often co-located. Site requirements may also include space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver accommodations and inter-modal freight handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is
typically required. Adequate expansion area is often a factor when selecting a site so that
expansion can be accommodated without the need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate
freeway is essential and must be located in areas that are relatively free from congestion to enable efficient freight movements. Aside from transportation facilities, power, and modern communications, some transportation uses may not necessarily require the full complement of
other urban facilities and services.
Retail Trade Convenient access to I-5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements from I-5 in Central
Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and may raise site
requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street arterial is good and
access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts regional shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and medium retailers cannot be met. The
anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and medium
retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor.
As the City’s residential neighborhoods expand to the west and north there is a need for additional retail, and office, development to serve the particular commercial needs, both
commercial and office, of the surrounding neighborhoods. The design and size of these
commercial centers need to be based on the ultimate long-term density and area of the
neighborhood and designed to complement the neighborhood’s residential character. The
location and design of these commercial centers need to support and encourage pedestrian access from the serving neighborhood. For land use planning purposes these centers are referred to as
Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
Long-Term Land Demand Estimate
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This section calculates Central Point’s land demand estimate for the next 20 years. Figure 21 above provides the total number of jobs forecasted to be created in Southern Oregon through
2039. Figure 25 calculates that Central Point should capture approximately 6.64 percent of these
new jobs. Figure 26 calculates that this equals approximately 1,915 new jobs for Central Point
and allocates them by industry. Employment land demand estimates can be projected using a variety of techniques, but this
Economic Element calculates the land needs by converting the projected population growth rates
into projected employees and then using average employee space needs and floor area ratios to
project future land needs. See Figure 32 for the estimate of employee density per acre. Then these land needs are aggregated by the development pattern type demanded by each industry so that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply calculations.
Each of these steps requires assumptions about expected ratios and land development
efficiencies.
iii. Estimate of Needed Employment Lands
In order to estimate the number of acres needed by 2039 for all Central Point’s industries, this
section uses an employee per acre ratio. According to the DLCD’s Industrial & Other
Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, there are typically 8-12 industrial sector jobs per acre, 14-20 commercial and service sector jobs per acre, 6-10 institutional and government jobs per acre, and 6-10 other employment sector jobs per acre.207
Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039
Figure 30 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how
many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD’s employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the City. As a result, Central Point will need 47 new net acres in the aggregate by 2039.
However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial,
institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add
207 DLCD’s Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46.
Land Use Classification Number of Jobs
224
Jobs/Buildable Acre
Ratio from DLCD225
Employment
Buildable Acres
Needed226
Existing Buildable
Acre227 Buildable Acreage
Surplus/Shortage
Industrial 1,658 8
Commercial/Service 4,407 14
Institutional/Gov't 892 6
Other Services & Self-
Employment 740 6
Total 7,697 22 - - ‐
Industrial 476 8 59 87 27
Commercial/Service 1,155 14 83 61 (21)
Institutional/Gov't 111 6 18 - (18)
Other Services & Self-
Employment 207 6 34 - (34)
Total 1,948 142 148 (47)
Note: Employment Gross Acres Needed calculated using Buildable Acres adjusted for right-of-way (25%)2017 Jobs228Jobs Added by 2039229113
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approximately 73 gross acres of commercial, institutional, and other land types of lands by 2039.208 See Figure 30.
Figure 30: Gross Acres Needed209
Another way to estimate the land demand is to compare the above result to the conclusions
reached in other parts of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. For example, Central Point’s
Economic Element 2013-2033 found that the City would need between 59 and 67 acres by
2033. See also Central Point’s Land Use Element 2018-2038, which made the same findings.
The previous Economic Element estimated that Central Point needs approximately 13 acres of
employment lands per 1,000 residents.210 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101
people211 and the 2039 population is projected to be around 26,317.212 This increase of
approximately 7,216 residents means that Central Point would need a total of 93.8 additional acres for employment purposes in the long-term.213 But, because there is a surplus of
approximately 23 Industrial site acres, Central Point actually needs 65 acres.214
Conclusion In conclusion, based on Central Point’s projected job capture rate, the
Comprehensive Plan’s previous calculations, and the estimated ratio of residents to land use needs, Central Point has a forecasted demand of 65 to 73 74 additional net acres for
employment purposes for the 2019 to 2039 planning period.
Short-Term Land Demand Estimate
By quartering the numbers from the long-term estimate, the short-term land employment use
needs can be determined. As a result, Central Point will need 18 additional net acres for the
next five years (2019-2024). See Figure 30.
Inventory of Employment Lands
After identifying economic opportunities and estimating land demand, the next step in the Goal 9
208 That is, (21.1714) + (18.1667) + (33.8333) = (73.1714). 209 See Figure 29. Rounded to the nearest tenth. 210 Central Point Land Use Element 2018 at 27. 211 Id. at 9. 212 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 47 Documents (May 2018). 213 That is, (((26,707-19,101)/1000)*13 acres) 214 That is, 93.8 acres – 28.395.
Sector
New Buildable Acres
Needed by 2039
Gross Employment
Acres Needed, 2019-
2039
Short-Term Gross Acres
Needed, 2019-2024
Industrial - - -
Commercial/Service 21 27 7
Institutional/Government 18 23 6
Other/Uncovered Employment 34 43 11
Total Employment 74 93 23
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process is to evaluate the current land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which there is a projected demand over the next twenty years. Central Point updates its general buildable lands
information on a regular basis and this information has been used as the starting point to analyze
the land base from a more specific Goal 9 perspective.
The Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 has been published by the City of Central Point as a separate document. The above-conclusion that Central Point needs
65 to 73 additional net acres by 2039 considers the findings of the BLI, including that there is
a slight surplus of industrial lands.
i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency
The City of Central Point’s current built employment land base has relatively limited
redevelopment potential. According to the BLI, the City only has 8.95 acres of total commercial
lands and 36.18 acres of industrial lands that are redevelopable.215 This configuration does not lend itself well to redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the supply and demand for sites over a twenty-year period because this would require the demolition and aggregation of
parcels. While this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is unlikely to be
economically viable in Central Point on a scale that would alter long-term supply and demand
projections for employment lands. This quantitative determination does not mean that there are not good qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along Highway 99.
There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along Table Rock Road.216 Several
parcels are zoned residential and that are large enough to be be developed for employment uses. Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is an area where relatively inexpensive small industrial sites are available to own and where there are limited development
requirements that add overhead. In some ways, this area is important employment land for
certain types of firms that have ever fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost-
effective. As such, aggressive redevelopment planning policies for this area may seem to be a great aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and unintended economic consequences.
Moreover, without relatively massive financial incentives for significant redevelopment that
would change the overall quality of development in this area, lesser redevelopment policies tend
to have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development projects that would
trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties.
ii. Vacant Lands
According to the BLI, most of the City’s vacant acreage consists of Medium Industrial lands, as
well as Large and Medium Retail.217 The City has barely any vacant acreage allocated predominantly to office use of any kind. It also has little acreage dedicated to small retail.
However, according the analysis in this Economic Element, Central Point’s economy will likely
215 Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 6, Tables 3 and 4. 216 See Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 13. 217 Id. at 7, Figure 3.
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have its strongest growth in industries that require retail and office space. As a result, the City needs to increase its buildable lands in these categories.
Further, according to the BLI, most of the vacant number of lots are in small retail (even though
there is little total acreage).218 Further, there are few vacant lots of any kind for offices, large retail, and large industrial.219 As a result, the City will need more parcels for offices of every size and for large industrial and large retail.
Another consideration in the employment land demand and current employment land inventory
is the spatial relationship between existing inventory and future demand. As the City’s residential neighborhoods (UGB) expand to the west and north additional employment lands will be needed for Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers. As would be expected the City’s
current employment land inventory (planned and zoned) is not spatially appropriate for these
new expanding neighborhoods, and in terms of inventory are considered excess supply.
Consequently, there will be a need to discount some of these lands when addressing the supply need for new Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
iii. Conclusion
A stable and diverse economy that provides access to employment opportunities for Central Point’s growing population is fundamental to providing a livable community consistent with the City’s vision and preferred future. Based on the analysis herein, the City will experience growth
across all employment categories and is particularly well positioned to experience growth in
specialty foods, trucking and transportation, healthcare and retail services. However, proactive
and effective strategies will be necessary to attract, retain and expand a diverse business environment to provide for the City’s employment needs as they change over time. To accomplish this, the City recognizes the following considerations as essential to fostering an
effective economic development program in Central Point:
1. Collaboration, Partnership & Comparative Advantages Must Be Leveraged. Effective economic development actions necessary to diversify the City’s economic base requires
an understanding of, and a careful balance between regional cooperation and competition.
It is important to understand and pro-actively participate in the broader national, state,
and regional economic development discussions. Participating in regional economic
development programs like Southern Oregon Regional Development, Inc. (SOREDI) and the Rogue Valley Workforce Development Council can improve the regional economic
climate and a strong regional economy will benefit all communities within the region.
Most importantly, to be an effective participant the City must recognize its competitive
advantage within the region and compete for those economic development opportunities
within the region for which Central Point is well positioned.
2. Adequate Land Supply and Development Site Characteristics are Needed to be
Competitive: The City will need to provide adequate land supply in terms of both acreage
and development site characteristics to effectively respond to business development
218 Id. 219 Id.
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needs. This need is particularly true for Neighborhood Commercial lands as the City expands its urban growth boundary. At this time, The the City does not have enough
employment lands to meet the projected economic needs over the next 20 years.
Population growth and job forecasts indicate that the City will need more lands for
Commercial/Service, Institutional/Government, and Other employment types. The BLI also indicates that the City does not have enough large retail parcels. Office, Retail and Institutional employment uses with a focus on development sites suitable for medium
and large office and retail uses and availability of vacant buildings for expanding small
businesses (i.e. flex-space). Over the 2019-2039 planning period, the City will need to
expand the UGB to ensure an adequate 5-year and 20-year supply of buildable employment land (Table 30).
3. Dynamic Economic Conditions Require Proactive and Responsive Management. The
economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities for which the City is well
positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic economic forces require the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. They also require the City to engage in sustained analysis of national, state, and local economic
conditions. Only when the City is actively monitoring its economy will it be poised to
take advantage of good opportunities and guide the community through any turbulent
times. Furthermore, the pursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance between
short-term and long-term economic objectives. The City recognizes that some
opportunities may warrant short-term incentives to achieve longer term employment or
property tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long-term benefit and may not warrant the short-term fiscal cost of incentives.
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Section 7: Goals, Conclusions, and Policies
Statewide Planning Goal 9 requires that comprehensive plans and policies contribute to a stable
and healthy economy in all regions of the state.
This section sets forth the conclusions from the foregoing analysis as well as the City of Central Point’s economic development goals and policies. The goals and policies in this section are similar to those adopted by the previous Economic Element (2013).
Statewide Planning Goal 9 requires that comprehensive plans and policies contribute to a stable
and healthy economy in all regions of the state.
Goal: General Economic Development
Goal 1 To actively promote a strong, diversified, and sustainable local economy, that reinforces Central Point’s “small town feel”220 and family orientation while preserving or enhancing the quality of life in the community as a place to live,
work, and play.
Because this Economic Element concludes that there will be economic uncertainty in the short-term, it is important that Central Point work to diversify and strengthen its economy. By continuing to analyze economic trends, Central
Point will be able to continue growing strong throughout the 2019-2039 planning
period.
Goal 2 To create meaningful incentives to encourage and support economic development;
Central Point has historically been a bedroom community where people live but
work elsewhere. In order to maintain a strong tax base and to ensure continued economic prosperity, Central Point must take an active role in encouraging economic development.
Goal 3 To encourage and promote the development, redevelopment, and or enhancement
of retail and office areas to achieve a vibrant shopping, entertainment, living and working experience in the downtown area.
This goal is important because Central Point needs a vibrant downtown in order to
ensure future economic prosperity. Further, based on the current BLI and the
projected land use needs, Central Point is going to need targeted redevelopment strategies to encourage these types of activities in the future.
220 As defined in the Urbanization Element of the Comprehensive Plan
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Goal 4 To encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, and state agencies, and local businesses concerning economic development,
education, and workforce development.
The City cannot reach its goals without the assistance of others. As a result, the City needs to be receptive to suggestions and aid from others and also needs to be active in communicating its needs and plans.
Goal 5 To encourage and support growth, particularly in the targeted industries
(respecialty food manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors). These targeted industries are where the City could make strides. It is important
that the City help maintain and grow these industries now and in the future.
Goal 6 To maintain at all times an adequate supply of suitable short-term (five-year) employment lands.
Using the information collected in the BLI, Central Point does not have an
adequate short-term supply of lands for institutional/government and other
employment types. As a result, the City should plan to add to the land supply in the near future.
Goal 7 To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual
identifying and monitoring economic development strategies and programs
available to the City.
Goal 8 Create a positive environment for industrial, commercial and institutional job
growth and development by maintaining an adequate land supply; providing a
local development review process that is predictable, responsive, and efficient; and delivering high quality public facilities and services.
Goal 9 Assure, through the UGB process, that adequate commercial lands are planned
and designated for the development of pedestrian oriented neighborhood
commercial centers to serve the City’s new residential neighborhoods.
Through the development of its Economic Element, the City of Central Point has reached the
following conclusions and policies relative to the above cited general economic goals:
1. Central Point concludes that the economy will change with time. As a result, the City must be prepared for economic fluctuations (including down-turns) in both the short- and
long-term, which could seriously impact the land use planning forecasts. The City further
concludes the pursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance between
short-term and long-term economic objectives. The City recognizes that some
opportunities may warrant short-term incentives to achieve longer term employment or
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property tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long-term benefit and may not warrant the short-term fiscal cost of incentives.
2. Central Point concludes that effective economic development actions necessary to
diversify the City’s economic base requires an understanding of, and a careful balance between regional cooperation and competition. It is important to understand and pro-actively participate in the broader national, state, and regional economic development
discussions. Participating in regional economic development programs like Southern
Oregon Regional Development, Inc. (SOREDI) and the Rogue Valley Workforce
Development Council can improve the regional economic climate and a strong regional economy will benefit all communities within the region. Most importantly, to be an effective participant the City must recognize its competitive advantage within the region
and compete for those economic development opportunities within the region for which
Central Point is well positioned.
3. Central Point concludes that the economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities
for which the City is well positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic
economic forces require the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on
opportunities as they arise. They also require the City to engage in sustained analysis of national, state, and local economic conditions. Only when the City is actively monitoring its economy will it be poised to take advantage of good opportunities and guide the
community through any turbulent times.
The City’s economic development goals will be managed through the following policies: Policy 1: Participation
The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming of
alternative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including education and workforce development that are consistent with the City’s economic development goals.
Policy 22: Refine Policies
The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and fiscal policies as they relate to economic development to ensure that the City’s economic development programming
can be effectively implemented.
Policy 33: Monitor Long-Term Consequences
Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can
be demonstrated that the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and
the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City.
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Goal: Economic Opportunities Synthesis
The conclusions in this section express the City’s synthesis of both the data and qualitative
findings made throughout this document. It also identifies the appropriate economic
opportunities: Policy 44: Small Businesses
The City shall pursue and encourage development of leasable employment buildings (i.e. flex-
space) to create opportunities to expand, retain and attract small businesses to Central Point’s employment districts.
Policy 5: Business Innovation
Encourage innovation, research, development, and commercialization of new technologies, products, and services through responsive regulations and public sector approaches.
Central Point concludes that the City has experienced the loss of cottage industry and
expanding small businesses due to a lack of vacant available employment related buildings (flex-space221) and the City cannot attract small businesses from elsewhere for the same reason.
221 An industrial or commercial/office building designed to provide the flexibility to utilize the floor space in a
variety of configurations. Usually provides a configuration allowing a flexible amount of office or showroom space in combination with manufacturing, laboratory, warehouse distribution, etc.
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Policy 6Policy 5: Tolo Area
The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, continue planning the Exit 35 area—also
called “Area CP-1B (Tolo)”—in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic
opportunities, especially for transportation-based economic activity and truck/rail freight support services. This area also contains the aeronautics manufacturing company Erickson Air Crane and serves aggregate uses; these uses have many specific and unique dimensions that should be
carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations applicable to this area need to account for
the site requirements of firms in these sectors. Because the area is currently constrained as a
result of a lack of access to water, the City should begin planning how to make water more readily available so as to make these lands available for more economic development.
Policy 67: Monitor Regulations
The City shall periodically evaluate its regulations for employment related development, particularly as it relates to targeted industries, as well as compatibility with adjacent non-employment lands to ensure that regulations are consistent with applicable best practices.
Regulations found to no longer be appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable
thereafter.
Goal: Employment Land Supply and Development
This section sets forth the City’s conclusions and policies that result from the analysis of the
City’s land supplies and employment land development patterns, as follows:
Central Point concludes that throughout the planning period it must maintain an adequate supply of employment land. The City will need to expand the UGB to ensure an adequate 5-year and 20-
year supply of buildable employment land.
The City Concludes that its existing supply of employment lands are inadequate to meet future needs and that all efforts should be made to ensure the City has an adequate supply of each land
type.
Central Point concludes that the availability of vacant buildings for expanding small businesses
is in short supply and that an effort should be made to encourage its development to expand the city’s inventory of “flex-space.”
Central Point concludes that urban facilities and services are critical for the development of
employment lands. Thus, the City’s Goal 11 Public Facilities and Services planning and Goal 12
Transportation Planning are critical to the timely delivery of infrastructure necessary to support economic development.
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The City’s Employment Land Supply Goals will be managed through the following policies:
Policy 78: Adequate Short-Term Supply
The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and transportation facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of competitive short-term buildable lands sufficient to meet employment needs within a five-year
period, particularly for the retail, specialty foods, professional, health care, and trucking sectors.
Policy 89: Prepare for Long-Term Needs The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short-term employment lands in the medium and
large site categories equivalent to the twenty-year demand for those categories. The supply of
short-term employment land shall be reviewed and updated annuallyevery four years consistent
with the Portland State University Population Research Center Coordinated Population Forecasting schedule. When it is determined that the supply of land as measured in terms of number of sites and/or acreage in the medium and large site categories is inadequate to serve the
twenty-year needs then the City shall amend its UGB to include additional short-term (5-year)
employment lands.
Policy 10: Pedestrian Oriented Neighborhood Commercial Centers.
As the City’s expands the UGB it will include in the land use mix adequate commercial lands to
for the development of Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers designed to compliment the physical character and encourage neighborhood pedestrian use. Adequacy of the acreage needed for Pedestrian Oriented Commercial Centers will be guided by the Regional Plan land use
allocation.
iv. Policy 9: Adequate Supplies for Small Businesses
The City shall pursue and encourage Turnkey Design and Build solutions for flex-space that
create opportunities for expanding small businesses in Central Point, and may consider economic
development incentives to attract and ‘marry’ the construction and development component with
the small business component as an inducement to development, but only when it can be demonstrated that: the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and
the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City.
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Planning Commission Resolution No. 872 (6/4/2019)
PLANNING COMMISSION RESOLUTION NO.872
A RESOLUTION FORWARDING A FAVORABLE RECOMMENDATION TO THE
CITY COUNCIL TO UPDATE AND ADOPT THE CITY OF CENTRAL POINT ECONOMIC ELEMENT (2019-2039) FILE NO. CPA-19003
Applicant: City of Central Point
WHEREAS, the City’s Economic Element of the Comprehensive Plan was last updated in
2013; and
WHEREAS, since 2013 the City’s population forecast and employment buildable lands and economic conditions have changed necessitating an update of the City’s Economic Element as a necessary step in determining the City’s employment land needs; and
WHEREAS, the proposed Economic Element has been prepared in accordance with all
applicable Oregon Laws, Oregon Administrative Rules, and Oregon Statewide Land Use Planning Goals and the City’s Comprehensive Plan.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City of Central Point Planning
Commission, by this Resolution No. 872, does hereby forward a favorable recommendation to
the City Council to approve the updated Economic Element as presented in attached Exhibit
“A”.
PASSED by the Planning Commission and signed by me in authentication of its passage this
4th day of June, 2019.
_______________________________
Planning Commission Chair
ATTEST:
_______________________________
City Representative
Approved by me this 4th day of June, 2019.
_______________________________
Planning Commission Chair
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