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CITY OF CENTRAL POINT
PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA
May 7, 2019 - 6:00 p.m.
I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER
II. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE
III. ROLL CALL
Planning Commission members, Mike Oliver (chair), Tom Van Voorhees, Amy Moore,
Jim Mock, John Whiting, Kay Harrison, Chris Richey
IV. CORRESPONDENCE
V. MINUTES
Review and approval of the April 2, 2019 Planning Commission meeting minutes.
VI. PUBLIC APPEARANCES
VII. BUSINESS
VIII. DISCUSSION
A. Preliminary Residential UGB Mapping Update/Discussion.
B. Employment Buildable Lands Inventory Discussion.
C. Economic Element Discussion.
IX. ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEWS
X. MISCELLANEOUS
XI. ADJOURNMENT
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City of Central Point
Planning Commission Minutes
April 2, 2019
I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER AT 6:00 P.M.
II. ROLL CALL
Commissioners, Mike Oliver (chair), Amy Moore, John Whiting, Tom Van
Voorhees, Jim Mock, Chris Richey and Kay Harrison were present. Also in
attendance were: Tom Humphrey, Community Development Director, Stephanie
Holtey, Principal Planner, Justin Gindlesperger, Community Planner and Karin
Skelton, Planning Secretary.
PLEDGE OF ALLEGIENCE
III. CORRESPONDENCE
IV. MINUTES
Kay Harrison noted her name was listed in the roll call for the March 5, 2019 minutes
although she had been absent. John Whiting made a motion to approve the minutes as
modified. Amy Moore seconded the motion. ROLL CALL: Tom Van Voorhees,
abstain; Chris Richey, yes; Kay Harrison, abstain; Amy Moore, yes; John Whiting, yes;
Jim Mock, yes. Motion passed.
V. PUBLIC APPEARANCES
There were no public appearances.
VI. BUSINESS
A. Public hearing to consider a Conditional Use Permit application to allow Fire
District 3 to operate a fire station at 1909 Scenic Avenue. The 1.76 acre site is
within the civic zoning district and is identified on the Jackson County Assessor’s
Map as 37S 2W 03AB Tax Lots 4400, 4500, and 4600. File No. CUP – 19001.
Applicant: Fire District 3; Agent: Matt Small; Kistler, Small & White Architects.
Mike Oliver read the rules regarding the public hearing. The commissioners had no
bias, conflict of interest or ex parte contact to declare
Justin Gindlesperger explained the proposed fire station is a public facility which is a
conditional use in the Civic zone. It consists of 1.76 acres and three tax lots. It is located
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Planning Commission Meeting
April 2, 2019
Page 2
just north of Scenic Middle School. The Housing Authority of Jackson County owns the
property immediately to the east which is slated for future development.
He said the Fire District has agreed to participate with the City in a shared cost agreement
for improvements to the north side of Scenic Avenue, which includes sidewalks, bicycle
lanes on both sides, a center left turn lane and crosswalks. There will also be an
extension of Rock Way south of Scenic Avenue to the Scenic Middle School parking lot.
This extension will improve the overall circulation for peak pick up and drop off times at
the School. The sidewalks for the opposite side of the street will be completed when the
Housing Authority develops their site.
The Commissioners discussed the plans for improvements and various ideas for making
the area as safe as possible for students prior to the improvements which will be made by
the Housing Authority.
Mr. Gindlesperger noted the proposed structure was situated across the boundary between
lots. He said it will be necessary to adjust or consolidate the 3 lots. He added as a
condition of approval, prior to permit issuance, the applicant will apply for a Type I
Property Line Adjustment/Consolidation to consolidate Tax Lot 4500 and Tax Lot 4600
and adjust the common property boundary between the consolidated tax lots and Tax Lot
4400.
The Commissioners agreed the Lot Line Adjustment was necessary.
The Public Hearing Was Opened
Applicant John Patterson of Fire District 3 and their agent Matt Small of Kistler, Small
and White Architects addressed the Planning Commission. Mr. Small said the project
was scheduled for completion in May of 2020. They should be submitting for permits
soon. He said the Fire District has met with the School District and they were in
agreement with the project. He stated the extension of Rock Way would create another
exit from the school and would help ease congestion. He added there would be trees,
bushes and a chain link fence installed to protect students exiting the school on foot. The
landscaping would be made up of mostly fire resistant plants and materials. Mr. Small
stated that deferring the installation of the sidewalks on the east side of the street would
allow more development options for the Housing Authority project. He said the Housing
Authority had been part of the discussions with the School District.
John Patterson of Fire District 3 reviewed the lot line adjustment and the extension of
Rock Way. He said the Extension of Rock Way and the Scenic Avenue improvements
would improve traffic flow during peak times.
The Commissioners discussed the improvements and asked how the traffic would be
impacted when an engine exited the station.
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Planning Commission Meeting
April 2, 2019
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Mr. Patterson said the station had a good line of sight, and they had discussed signs with
flashing LEDs on the streets to alert traffic. He described how the engines would enter
and exit the property. He said the station would take some of the load off the current
Central Point station and allow for faster response times.
There were no public Comments.
The Public Hearing was closed.
Tom Van Voorhees made a motion to approve Resolution 868 to allow Fire District 3 to
operate a fire station at 1909 Scenic Avenue within the civic zoning district. Kay
Harrison seconded the motion. Roll Call: Tom Van Voorhees, yes; Chris Richey, yes;
Kay Harrison, yes; Amy Moore, yes; John Whiting, yes; Jim Mock, yes. Motion passed.
B. Public hearing to consider a Site Plan and Architectural Review application for
the construction of a 10,200 square foot fire station, including parking and
landscape area, at 1909 Scenic Avenue. The 1.76 acer site is within the Civic zoning
district and is identified on the Jackson County Assessor’s Map as 37S 2W 03AB
Tax Lots 4400, 4500, and 4600. File No. CUP – 19001. Applicant: Fire District 3;
Agent: Matt Small; Kistler, Small & White Architects.
Mike Oliver stated the rules for the public hearing stood as previously stated.
Mr. Gindlesperger reviewed the application. He showed the proposed building design,
parking and the vehicle circulation on the site. He explained the improvements the
applicant would be making were as previously stated in the review of the Conditional Use
Application.
The Public Hearing was opened
Matt Small stated an open space on the south portion of the property is a site for a
potential future fueling station.
John Patterson pointed out a location that was planned to be used as an on-site training
area and educational outreach using vehicles and the “jaws of life” rescue equipment. He
added there was also an area dedicated to a generator to provide emergency power. He
saud the generator would be enclosed and would not be loud enough to disturb local
residents.
There were no public comments.
The Public Hearing was closed.
Jim Mock made a motion to approve Resolution 869 approving a Site Plan and
Architectural Review application for the construction of a 10,200 square foot fire station,
including parking and landscape area, at 1909 Scenic Avenue within the Civic zoning
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Planning Commission Meeting
April 2, 2019
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district. Amy Moore seconded the motion. Roll Call: Tom Van Voorhees, yes; Chris
Richey, yes; Kay Harrison, yes; Amy Moore, yes; John Whiting, yes; Jim Mock, yes.
Motion passed.
DISCUSSION
A. Residential Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) Amendment. Present and
discuss two preliminary mapping alternatives for the Residential UGB Amendment.
File No. CPA-19001. Applicant: City of Central point.
Principal Planner Stephanie Holtey gave an overview of the Residential UGB
Amendment. She explained the necessity of amending the UGB due to updated forecast
population growth. She said the City currently has a need for 305 acres of residential
land, 54 acres of park land and 16 – 22 acres for schools. She explained the State’s
requirements for amending the UGB which include demonstration of need for additional
land, establishing a study area, and conducting alternative location analysis. She said the
City needs to comply with Statewide Planning Goal 10 and also meet the City and
County Comprehensive Plan policies. There should also be efficient and economical
provision of public facilities. Additionally, environmental, social, economic and energy
consequences need to be considered.
She reviewed the Urban reserve areas explaining the State location criteria of eliminating
lands that cannot be serviced by public facilities, properties more than 500 feet from
water and sewer, land compromised by natural hazards, land fully impacted by
Floodplain, lands with significant natural cultural or recreational resources, wetlands and
wildlife habitat. The City’s locational Criteria was proximity to the UGB, public
facilities and transportation system access, proximity to mixed use pedestrian friendly
areas and land that was development ready.
She presented 2 alternative boundary locations based on application of coarse location
criteria. The first emphasized parcels greater than 10 acres that abut the UGB, are within
500 feet of basic urban services and have a master plan. Additional consideration was
given to properties’ proximity to activity centers, transportation infrastructure and
whether there is any evidence of development readiness such as a master plan or written
request to be included in the UGB. Ms. Holtey said the second alternative applies the
same coarse locational criteria but increases the emphasis on small to mid-sized parcels
with access to services and exception lands in proximity to basic urban services.
The Commissioners discussed the two alternatives and the possibility of a hybrid
alternative. They considered various configurations and expressed concern regarding
traffic on Gebhard Road. They mentioned the City’s committed average density and
reviewed the Concept Plan for CP-5 & 6.
Mike Oliver asked if there were any public comments.
Larry Martin, Taylor Road
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Planning Commission Meeting
April 2, 2019
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Mr. Martin stated he represents the Taylor West group of landowners. He stressed the
fact the Concept Plans should be a general guideline and final development might differ
slightly from the Plan.
The Commissioners discussed the Concept plan zoning designations and the City’s
committed average density.
Jim Brown, Heritage Road.
Mr. Brown said his 10 acre property is south of the Taylor West group. He expressed a
desire to annex into the City. He thought services would be sufficiently close to his
property once Taylor West was developed.
Richard Stach, Medford___
Mr. Stach said he had a 5 acre parcel near Gebhard Road. He asked what the timeline
was for the UGB Amendment. Mr. Humphrey said it will happen this year.
Diane Inkley, Gebhard Road.
Ms. Inkley said the traffic mitigation was extremely import. She said that during the
recent greenway fire, there were serious traffic problems and gridlock for people who
needed to evacuate. She said Connectivity is important in emergency situations.
The Commissioners discussed various transportation patterns and concluded that new
street connectivity was an important consideration and would be contingent on
development.
Mr. Humphrey said the UGB Amendment is a discussion item tonight. He said the
Citizen’s Advisory Committee and the City Council would hear this same item next
week. After receiving their input, refinements would be made and the Planning
Commission would see the refined version in May. He said when the UGB Amendment
becomes a formal application, all property owners within 250 feet of the Urban Reserve
Areas would be notified of the public hearings. He reviewed the process and noted that
Jackson County and the City of Central Point would hold a joint meeting which would be
a public hearing.
The Commissioners felt they generally approved option 1A for the UGB Amendment.
They discussed noticing requirements and coordination of the joint meeting with Jackson
County.
Planning Update
Mr. Humphrey gave a planning update.
John Whiting is moving out of state and is stepping down from the Planning
Commission
There is a vacancy on the Citizen’s Advisory Committee
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Planning Commission Meeting
April 2, 2019
Page 6
The Community Development Department is going to be adding a planner I and a
temporary assistant in the Building Department
There is a medical building proposed for the corner of 6th Street and Pine. It will
have offices for So. Oregon Chiropractic and an Urgent Care Facility on the first
floor and business offices on the second floor.
The Planning Commission would be hearing the Hazard Mitigatin Plan in May
The Railroad crossing is hoping to finish this year
The Housing Authority will be picking up permits for the Creekside Apartments
soon.
VIII. ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEWS
IX. MISCELLANEOUS
X. ADJOURNMENT
Amy Moore made a motion to adjourn. Kay Harrison seconded the motion. All
members said “aye”. Meeting was adjourned 8: 55 p.m.
___________________________________
Planning Commission Chair
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May 7, 2019
Agenda Item: VIII-A
Discuss the 2019 Residential UGB Amendment preliminary mapping changes based on discussions with
the Planning Commission, Citizen’s Advisory Committee and City Council. Applicant: City of Central
Point. File No. CPA-19001.
Staff Source
Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner
Background
The City is in the process of preparing an application to amend the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to
add land for housing, parks and schools. At the April 2, 2019 Planning Commission staff presented two
alternative Urban Growth Boundary Amendment (UGB) scenarios for discussion, feedback and direction.
Staff Alternative 1A maximizes the inclusion of large parcels in proximity to the existing UGB and
emphasizes connectivity between existing and future activity centers. Staff alternative 1B provides a
greater emphasis on smaller parcels adjacent to the existing UGB. The Planning Commission favored
Alternative 1A and emphasized the importance of including properties that are ‘development ready.’
Staff Alterantive 1A Staff Alternative 1B
Similar discussions occurred with the Citizen’s Advisory Committee on April 9th and the City Council on
April 11th. Both the CAC and the City Council concurred with the Planning Commission’s
recommendation to pursue Alternative 1A with highest priority for properties that want to be included and
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therefore exhibit greater development readiness. Public involvement occurred during all three meetings
and several people spoke in favor of being included and some expressed concern about impacts on future
development on rural quality of life. In light of testimony offered, the City Council directed staff to
include additional properties around the Taylor Road expansion area in CP-6A with corresponding
reductions in land area within CP-2B if necessary.
At the May 7, 2019 staff will present the updated Residential UGB mapping along with an update on the
project status, UGB Amendment process and next steps.
Action
Discuss the preliminary Residential UGB Map and UGB Amendment process. Recommend any
additional changes for consideration by the Council prior to UGB Amendment application submittal to
Jackson County.
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May 7, 2019
Agenda Item: VIII-A
Introduce and discuss the 2019 Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). Applicant: City of
Central Point. File No. CPA-19002.
Staff Source
Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner
Tom Humphrey, AICP, Community Development Director
Background
In accordance with OAR 660-024-0050(1), the City maintains an Employment Buildable Lands Inventory
(BLI) (Attachment “A”). The purpose of the Employment BLI is to track the availability of buildable
employment (i.e. commercial, industrial and civic) land in the City’s urban area over a 20-year period.
The last Employment BLI occurred in 2013 as part of the Economic Element update. Since that time, the
City has received a request and declared its intent to initiate a UGB amendment to add land in CP-3 for
commercial employment and open space preservation use. Updating the Employment BLI is a
prerequisite to determining employment land need over the next 20-years. At the May 7, 2019 Planning
Commission meeting, staff will introduce basic elements of the Employment BLI and highlight the most
significant findings.
The City’s urban area consists of 2,972 acres of which 633 (24%) are designated for employment use in
the following general categories:
• Commercial: 232.70 acres (8%)
• Industrial: 279.50 acres (9%)
• Civic: 121.05 acres (4%)
The Employment BLI tracks the development status of the City’s employment lands by land use
classification and zoning district. There are two basic types of buildable lands: 1) vacant land and 2)
redevelopment land. Vacant lands have no improvement value and redevelopment lands are those lands
that have experienced development but are likely to be converted to more intensive employment uses
during the planning period due to present or expected market forces. Per the BLI, the City has 151 acres
of buildable employment land, 16% of which is classified as redevelopment land.
Additionally the BLI evaluates parcel size distribution (i.e. small, medium and large) for retail, office, and
industrial land use for vacant and redevelopment land. The BLI shows that the City’s vacant employment
land is concentrated in the large retail and large industrial parcel category (31%) but represents only 4%
of the total number of vacant employment parcels.
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Issues
There are no issues. The Employment BLI is an inventory of buildable lands and is not a policy
document. The data in the BLI supports analysis in the Economic Element to determine and set polices
relative to the opportunities and need for employment land in the City’s urban area over the next 20-years.
Attachments:
Attachment “A” – Employment BLI (Discussion Draft)
Action
Discuss the Employment BLI and direct staff to: 1) schedule for a public hearing; 2) schedule for a public
hearing without changes, or 3) make changes and bring back for further discussion at the June 4, 2019
Planning Commission meeting.
Recommendation
Direct staff to schedule the Employment BLI for a public hearing with or without changes.
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Employment
Buildable
Lands
Inventory (BLI)
2019 – 2039
Discussion Draft
5/7/2019
City of Central Point
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Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 3
2. LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS AND ZONING ....................................................................... 4
3. EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY .............................................................................................. 4
4. BUILDABLE EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY ..................................................................... 5
5. Employment Land Need ............................................................................................................. 12
6. DEFINITIONS and METHODOLOGY........................................................................................ 12
APPENDIX “A” – Definitions .............................................................................................................. 14
APPENDIX “B” - Methodology for Calculation of Employment Buildable Land ............. 17
15
1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of the Employment Buildable Land Inventory (Employment BLI) is to maintain a
record of the availability of buildable employment lands within the City’s urban area (Figure 1).
The Employment BLI is prepared in accordance with OAR 660-24-0050(1) requiring that cities maintain a buildable lands inventory within the urban growth boundary sufficient to
accommodate the employment needs for a 20-year planning period as determined in OAR 660-
009-0015. For purposes of this Employment BLI the 20-year planning period is 2019 to 2039.
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By definition the Employment BLI is strictly a land inventory system. The Employment BLI is
not a policy document. The Employment BLI is used by other Comprehensive Plan elements as a
resource for the development and monitoring of policies related to economic development and land use.
The Employment BLI is considered a living document that is continually updated as development activity occurs and is entered into the City’s BLI electronic data base (BLI2019).
2. LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS AND ZONING
The Employment BLI maintains an accounting of all employment lands by land use classification and zoning. The City’s Comprehensive Plan contains eight (8) employment land use
classifications (Table 1). The employment land use classifications are supported by eight (8)
employment zoning districts (Table 2). The Land Use Classifications and Zoning districts are defined and mapped in the City’s Land Use Element.
3. EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY
As of December 31, 2018, the City of Central Point’s urban area contained a total of 633 gross acres (Table 1 and 2) of employment designated land, representing 21% of the City’s total land
inventory. The City’s Employment lands were distributed amongst three basic land use
categories; Commercial (8%), Industrial (9%), and Civic (4%) lands.
Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation
Comprehensive Plan Designation
Total City
Acres
Total UGB
Acres
Total Urban
Acres
NCom 2.64 7.83 10.47
TPCom 100.47 8.48 108.95
TCCom 12.49 3.19 15.69
GenCom 56.13 - 56.13
EmpCom 41.47 - 41.47
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70
LInd 78.57 102.37 180.95
HInd 39.67 58.89 98.56
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50
Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05
TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05
GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.25
Table 1. City of Central Point
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
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4. BUILDABLE EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY
The term “Buildable Land” is typically reserved for residential use1. However, for purposes of
consistency the term “Buildable Land” is applied in this BLI for purposes of identifying and
tracking the City’s Employment Land inventory.
Within the City’s urban area, there are approximately 633 acres of employment land distributed
over eight (8) employment land use classifications and eight (8) employment zoning districts. Approximately 151 acres (24%) of the City’s total employment land is considered net buildable
acres. Table 3 and 4 identify the distribution of the employment net buildable land by vacant land type (vacant, constrained, and redevelopment), and total buildable acres. Figure 2 illustrates the geographic distribution of the City’s employment buildable land inventory (12/31/2018).
In calculating the Employment Net Buildable Lands a determination must be made that the buildable lands are suitable, available and necessary (OAR 660-009-0005(2)) for development
throughout the 20-year planning period. There are two basic classifications of buildable employment land:
a. Vacant Land –Lands on which there are no improvements. Infrastructure is available within the 20-year planning period.
1 OAR 660-024-0010(1).
Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District
Comprehensive Plan Designation
Total City
Acres
Total UGB
Acres
Total Urban
Acres
C-2(m)12.08 - 12.08
CN 2.64 7.83 10.47
C-4 100.47 8.48 108.95
C-5 12.49 3.19 15.69
EC 29.39 - 29.39
GC 56.13 - 56.13
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70
M-1 77.57 91.50 169.08
M-2 40.67 69.76 110.43
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50
Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05
TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05
GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.25
Table 2. City of Central Point
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
18
b. Redevelopable Land –Lands on which development has already occurred but on which,
due to present or expected market forces, there exists the strong likelihood that existing
development will be converted to more intensive employment uses during the planning period.
4.2 Total Net Buildable Acres. Tables 3 and 4 identify the Total Net Buildable Acres of employment land by land use designation and zoning. Approximately 23% of the
City’s employment lands are identified as buildable. A large percentage (16) of the City’s net buildable acreage is classified as redevelopment land.
4.3 Parcel Size Distribution. An important consideration in considering a city’s
employment land inventory is parcel size. This is particularly true for industrial property. Tables 5 and 6 identify the distribution of the City’s employment lands by
size (Large, Medium, and Small) within three general employment categories (Retail,
Office, and Industry). Table 7 and 8 illustrates the same information for vacant employment lands.
Figure 3 summarizes the parcel and acreage distribution for the vacant employment lands. As illustrated in Table 3 the City’s inventory of vacant employment land is
Comprehensive Plan Designation
Total City
Acres
Total UGB
Acres
Total Urban
Acres
Total Vacant
Acres
Constraine
d Acres
Gross Buildable Vacant
Acres
Public Facility
Acres
Net Buildable Vacant
Acres
Redevelopable
Acres
Total Net Buildable
Acres
NCom 2.64 7.83 10.47 0.24 - 0.24 0.06 0.18 - 0.18 TPCom 100.47 8.48 108.95 45.71 1.41 44.30 11.07 33.22 5.12 38.34
TCCom 12.49 3.19 15.69 11.07 - 11.07 2.77 8.30 3.19 11.50
GenCom 56.13 - 56.13 8.23 - 8.23 2.06 6.17 0.51 6.68 EmpCom 41.47 - 41.47 5.13 1.03 4.10 1.03 3.08 0.12 3.20 TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70 70.38 2.44 67.94 16.99 50.96 8.95 59.90
LInd 78.57 102.37 180.95 69.18 14.90 54.28 13.57 40.71 34.31 75.02
HInd 39.67 58.89 98.56 18.49 5.33 13.17 3.29 9.88 1.87 11.75 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 87.67 20.23 67.45 16.86 50.58 36.18 86.77
Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05 - - - - - - - TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05 - - - - - - -
GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.25 158.06 22.67 135.39 33.85 101.54 45.13 146.67
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 3. City of Central Point
Net Buildable Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation
Comprehensive Plan Designation
Total City
Acres
Total UGB
Acres
Total Urban
Acres
Total Vacant
Acres
Constraine
d Acres
Gross Buildable Vacant
Acres
Public Facility
Acres
Net Buildable Vacant
Acres
Redevelopable
Acres
Total Net Buildable
AcresC-2(m)12.08 - 12.08 - - - - - 0.12 0.12 CN 2.64 7.83 10.47 0.24 - 0.24 0.06 0.18 - 0.18
C-4 100.47 8.48 108.95 45.71 1.41 44.30 11.07 33.22 5.12 38.34
C-5 12.49 3.19 15.69 11.07 - 11.07 2.77 8.30 3.19 11.50 EC 29.39 - 29.39 5.13 1.03 4.10 1.03 3.08 - 3.08
GC 56.13 - 56.13 8.23 - 8.23 2.06 6.17 0.51 6.68
TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70 70.38 2.44 67.94 16.99 50.96 8.95 59.90
M-1 78.57 102.37 180.95 69.18 14.90 54.28 13.57 40.71 34.31 75.02 M-2 39.67 58.89 98.56 18.49 5.33 13.17 3.29 9.88 1.87 11.75
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 87.67 20.23 67.45 16.86 50.58 36.18 86.77
Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05 - - - - - - -
TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05 - - - - - - -
GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.25 158.06 22.67 135.39 33.85 101.54 45.13 146.67
Table 4. City of Central Point
Net Buildable Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
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concentrated in the large retail and large industrial parcel category (31%), but only
represent 4% of the total number of vacant employment parcels.
It needs to be noted that the Office category is represented by the EmpCom land use
classification. With respect to office use all of the Cities commercial land use
classifications all office uses. The EmpCom classification focuses on office uses, however; the EmpCom does allow retail uses.
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Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation
Acres, and Size Classification
Land Use Designation Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size
RETAIL
Large Retail (8 plus acres)
NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
TPCom 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
TCCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
GenCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres)
NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
TPCom 31.7 9 3.5 6.0 1 6.0
TCCom 9.9 3 3.3 3.2 1 3.2
GenCom 17.7 7 2.5 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Medium Retail 59.2 19 3.1 9.2 2 4.6
Small Retail (<2 acres)
NCom 2.6 4 0.7 7.8 10 0.8
TPCom 37.8 81 0.5 2.5 2 1.3
TCCom 2.6 2 1.3 0.0 0 0.0
GenCom 38.5 100 0.4 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 81.5 187 0.4 10.4 12 0.9
Retail Subtotal 171.7 208 19.5 14
OFFICE
Large Office (>= 3.5 acres)
EmpCom 7.1 2 3.6 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres)
EmpCom 13.9 8 1.7 0.0 0 0.0
Small Office (<1 acre)
EmpCom 20.4 90 0.2 0.0 0 0.0
Office Subtotal 41.5 100 0 0
INDUSTRIAL
Large Industrial (>= 15 acres)
LInd 17.3 1 17.3 0.0 0 0.0
HInd 20.2 1 20.2 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Industrial 37.5 2 0.0 0
Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres)
LInd 34.9 6 5.8 48.7 10 4.9
HInd 19.4 4 4.9 56.5 7 8.1
Subtotal Medium Industrial 54.3 10 5.4 105.2 17.0
Small Industrial (<3 acres)
LInd 26.4 22 1.2 53.7 57 0.94
HInd 0.0 0 0.0 2.4 2 1.18
Subtotal Small Industrial 26.4 22 1.2 56.0 59
Industrial Subtotal 118.2 34 161.3 76
Grand Total 331.4 342 180.77 90
CITY UGB
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 5. City of Central Point
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Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District,
Acres, and Size Classification
Land Use Designation Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size
RETAIL
Large Retail (8 or more acres)
C-2(m)0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
C-4 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
C-5 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
GC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres)
C-2(m)3.5 1 3.5 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
C-4 31.7 9 3.5 6.0 1 6.0
C-5 9.9 3 3.3 3.2 1 3.2
GC 17.7 7 2.5 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Medium Retail 62.8 20 3.1 9.2 2 4.6
Small Retail (<2 acres)
C-2(m)8.6 32 0.3 0.0 0 0.0
CN 2.6 4 0.7 7.8 10 0.8
C-4 37.8 81 0.5 2.5 2 1.3
C-5 2.6 2 1.3 0.0 0 0.0
GC 38.5 100 0.4 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 90.1 219 0.4 10.4 12 0.9
Retail Subtotal 183.8 241 19.5 14
Large Office (>= 3.5 acres)
EC 3.6 1 3.6 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres)
EC 12.2 7 1.7 0.0 0 0.0
Small Office (<1 acre)
EC 13.6 59 0.2 0.0 0 0.0
Office Subtotal 29.4 67 0 0
Large Industrial (>= 15 acres)
M-1 17.3 1 17.3 0.0 0 0.0
M-2 20.2 1 20.2 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 37.5 2 0.0 0
Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres)
M-1 34.9 6 5.8 48.7 10 4.9
M-2 19.4 4 4.9 56.5 7 8.1
Subtotal Small Retail 54.3 10 5.4 105.2 17.0
Small Industrial (<3 acres)
M-1 26.4 22 1.2 53.7 57 0.94
M-2 0.0 0 0.0 2.4 2 1.18
Subtotal Small Retail 26.4 22 1.2 56.0 59
Industrial Subtotal 118.2 34 161.3 76
Grand Total 331.4 342 180.77 90
CITY UGB
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 6. City of Central Point
22
Vacant Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation
Acres, and Size Classification
Land Use Designation Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size
RETAIL
Large Retail (8 plus acres)
NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
TPCom 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
TCCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
GenCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres)
NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
TPCom 7.2 3 2.4 0.0 0 0.0
TCCom 9.9 3 3.3 0.0 0 0.0
GenCom 2.9 1 2.9 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Medium Retail 20.0 7 2.9 0.0 0 0.0
Small Retail (<2 acres)
NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.2 1 0.2
TPCom 7.6 16 0.5 0.0 0 0.0
TCCom 1.2 1 1.2 0.0 0 0.0
GenCom 5.3 14 0.4 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 14.1 31 0.5 0.2 1 0.2
Retail Subtotal 65.0 40 0.2 1
OFFICE
Large Office (>= 3.5 acres)
EmpCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres)
EmpCom 4.6 3 1.5 0.0 0 0.0
Small Office (<1 acre)
EmpCom 0.5 1 0.5 0.0 0 0.0
Office Subtotal 5.1 4 0 0
INDUSTRIAL
Large Industrial (>= 15 acres)
LInd 17.3 1 17.3 0.0 0 0.0
HInd 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Industrial 17.3 1 0.0 0
Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres)
LInd 18.1 3 6.0 16.0 2 8.0
HInd 8.7 2 4.4 9.3 2 4.6
Subtotal Medium Industrial 26.8 5 5.4 25.2 4.0
Small Industrial (<3 acres)
LInd 15.1 14 1.1 2.7 5 0.54
HInd 0.0 0 0.0 0.5 1 0.49
Subtotal Small Industrial 15.1 14 1.1 3.2 6
Industrial Subtotal 59.3 20 28.4 10
Grand Total 129.4 64 28.66 11
CITY UGB
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 7. City of Central Point
23
Vacant Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District,
Acres, and Size Classification
Land Use Designation Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size Acres
Number
of
Parcels
Average
Parcel
Size
RETAIL
Large Retail (8 plus acres)
C-2(m)0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
C-4 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
C-5 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
GC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres)
C-2(m)0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
C-4 7.2 3 2.4 0.0 0 0.0
C-5 9.9 3 3.3 0.0 0 0.0
GC 2.9 1 2.9 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Medium Retail 20.0 7 2.9 0.0 0 0.0
Small Retail (<2 acres)
C-2(m)0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.2 1 0.2
C-4 7.6 16 0.5 0.0 0 0.0
C-5 1.2 1 1.2 0.0 0 0.0
GC 5.3 14 0.4 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Small Retail 14.1 31 0.5 0.2 1 0.2
Retail Subtotal 65.0 40 0.2 1
OFFICE
Large Office (>= 3.5 acres)
EC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres)
EC 4.6 3 1.5 0.0 0 0.0
Small Office (<1 acre)
EC 0.5 1 0.5 0.0 0 0.0
Office Subtotal 5.1 4 0 0
Large Industrial (>= 15 acres)
M-1 17.3 1 17.3 0.0 0 0.0
M-2 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0
Subtotal Large Industrial 17.3 1 0.0 0
Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres)
M-1 18.1 3 6.0 16.0 2 8.0
M-2 8.7 2 4.4 9.3 2 4.6
Subtotal Medium Industrial 26.8 5 5.4 25.2 4.0
Small Industrial (<3 acres)
M-1 15.1 14 1.1 2.7 5 0.54
M-2 0.0 0 0.0 0.5 1 0.49
Subtotal Small Industrial 15.1 14 1.1 3.2 6
Industrial Subtotal 59.3 20 28.4 10
Grand Total 129.4 64 28.66 11
CITY UGB
Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI
Table 8. City of Central Point
INDUSTRIAL
24
5. Employment Land Need
As previously noted the primary function of the BLI is to assist in the identification of buildable land needs during a 20-year planning period. The BLI does not determine the City’s quantitative
need for employment land, it only identifies the City’s current employment land inventory. The determination of the City’s need for employment land is the function of the Economic Element. As noted earlier the BLI is a living document that changes as changes occur in employment
development activity and policy.
6. DEFINITIONS and METHODOLOGY
To maintain consistency in the maintenance of the BLI the definitions and methodology used in preparing the Employment BLI are presented in Appendix “A” – Definitions and
Appendix “B” – Methodology.
25
26
APPENDIX “A” – Definitions
The 2019 BLI was last updated December 30, 2018. The following definitions are used in preparing and
maintain the residential BLI.
(1) “Buildable Land, Employment” means Employment designated lots or parcels within the City’s
urban area, including vacant and developed lots or parcels likely to be redeveloped that are suitable,
available and necessary for employment uses (OAR 660-009-0005(1)). Land is generally considered
“suitable and available” unless it:
1. Is severely constrained by natural hazards as determined under Statewide Planning Goal
7;
2. Is subject to natural resource protection measures determined under Statewide Planning
Goals 5, 6, 15, 16, 17 or 18;
3. Has slopes of 25 percent or greater;
4. Is within the 100-year flood plain; or
5. Cannot be provided with public facilities.
(2) “Redevelopment Land, Employment” means non-vacant land that is likely to be redeveloped during
the planning period. For purposes of this BLI the term Employment Redevelopment Land is employment
land that has a Land (L) to Improvement (I) ratio of less than 1 and is occupied by a single-family
detached residence. The L:I Ratio is the ratio between the real market value of land and the real market
value of improvements as measured by taking the real improvement value of a parcel divided by the real
land value based on the Jackson County Assessor records.
(3) “Development Constraints” means factors that temporarily or permanently limit or prevent the use
of land for economic development. Development constraints include, but are not limited to, wetlands, environmentally sensitive areas such as habitat, environmental contamination, slope, topography, cultural
and archeological resources, infrastructure deficiencies, parcel fragmentation, or natural hazard areas
(OAR 660-009-0005)(2).
(4) “Industrial Use” means employment activities generating income from the production, handling or
distribution of goods. Industrial uses include, but are not limited to: manufacturing; assembly; fabrication;
processing; storage; logistics; warehousing; importation; distribution and transshipment; and research and development. Industrial uses may have unique land, infrastructure, energy, and transportation
requirements. Industrial uses may have external impacts on surrounding uses and may cluster in traditional or new industrial areas where they are segregated from other non-industrial activities (OAR 660-009-0005(3).
(5) “Other Employment Use” means all non-industrial employment activities including the widest range of retail, wholesale, service, non-profit, business headquarters, administrative and governmental employment activities that are accommodated in retail, office and flexible building types. Other
employment uses also include employment activities of an entity or organization that serves the medical, educational, social service, recreation and security needs of the community typically in large buildings or
multi-building campuses (OAR-009-0005)(6).
27
(5) "Planning Area" means the area within an existing or proposed urban growth boundary. Cities and
counties with urban growth management agreements must address the urban land governed by their
respective plans as specified in the urban growth management agreement for the affected area (OAR 660-009-0005(7).
(6) “Prime Industrial Land” means land suited for traded-sector industries as well as other industrial
uses providing support to traded-sector industries. Prime industrial lands possess site characteristics that are difficult or impossible to replicate in the planning area or region. Prime industrial lands have
necessary access to transportation and freight infrastructure, including, but not limited to, rail, marine
ports and airports, multimodal freight or transshipment facilities, and major transportation routes. Traded-sector has the meaning provided in ORS 285B.280 (OAR 660-009-0005)(8).
(7) “Serviceable” means the city has determined that public facilities and transportation facilities, as defined by OAR 660, divisions 011 and 012, currently have adequate capacity for development planned in the service area where the site is located or can be upgraded to have adequate capacity within the 20-
year planning period (OAR 660-009-0005)(9).
(8) “Short-term Supply of Land” means suitable land that is ready for construction within one year of an application for a building permit or request for service extension. Engineering feasibility is sufficient
to qualify land for the short-term supply of land. Funding availability is not required. “Competitive Short-term Supply” means the short-term supply of land provides a range of site sizes and locations to
accommodate the market needs of a variety of industrial and other employment uses (OAR 660-009-
0005)(10).
(9) ”Site Characteristics” means the attributes of a site necessary for a particular industrial or other
employment use to operate. Site characteristics include, but are not limited to, a minimum acreage or site
configuration including shape and topography, visibility, specific types or levels of public facilities, services or energy infrastructure, or proximity to a particular transportation or freight facility such as rail,
marine ports and airports, multimodal freight or transshipment facilities, and major transportation routes
(OAR 660-009-0005)(11).
(10) ”Suitable” means serviceable land designated for industrial or other employment use that provides,
or can be expected to provide the appropriate site characteristics for the proposed use (OAR 660-009-0005)(12).
(11) “Total Land Supply” means the supply of land estimated to be adequate to accommodate industrial
and other employment uses for a 20-year planning period. Total land supply includes the short-term supply of land as well as the remaining supply of lands considered suitable and serviceable for the industrial or other employment uses identified in a comprehensive plan. Total land supply includes both
vacant and developed land (OAR 660-009-0005)(14).
(12) “Vacant Land, Employment” means an employment designated lot or parcel not currently containing permanent buildings or improvements. For purposes of determination of the presence of permanent
buildings/improvements all residential lots or parcels with an improvement value of zero (0), as determined by the Jackson County Assessor, are considered vacant.
28
(13) Net Buildable Acre, Employment: Consists of 43,560 square feet of employment designated
buildable land, after excluding present and future rights-of-way for streets and roads (OAR 660-024-
0010(6)).
29
APPENDIX “B” - Methodology for Calculation of Employment Buildable Land
The methodology used to inventory and calculate buildable lands is based on the definitions defined in
Appendix A. The base data source for identification of buildable lands is the Jackson County Assessor’s
Records dated April 2018, which has been modified to include such additional information as
Comprehensive Plan designations, zoning, development status, etc. The modified database is referred to
as the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI2019.xls).
Step 1. Urban Area, Gross Acres – Using the City’s GIS the total geographic limits of the
City’s urban area are mapped and the gross acres within the limits of the shape file calculated by
area within the City Limits and UGB.
Step 2. Net Urban Area by Land Use and Zoning – Using BLI2018 sum by land use and
zoning all tax lots within the City’s urban area (City Limits and UGB). Tax lots identified for
street, road, or access right-of-way (public or private) purposes are not included.
Step 3. Right-of-Way – Deduct the totals (City Limits and UGB) in Step 2 total from Step 1
total, the balance representing acreage used for right-of-way for the City Limits and UGB.
The results of Steps 1 – 3 are presented in Tables 1 and 2 of the 2019 Employment BLI.
Step 4. Net Buildable Acres, Employment. The methodology for calculating Buildable
Employment Land involves the following steps:
Step 4a. Employment Vacant Acres. The BLI identifies all tax lots by their land use
designation, zoning, development status, improvement and land value, and development
constraints. When the improvement value of a property is zero the property is defined as
Employment Vacant Land. The BLI sums the acreage for all Employment Vacant Land
by land use and zoning for the City Limits and the UGB.
Step 4b. Constrained Acres. The BLI includes information on the amount of
constrained acreage for all lots or parcels. The BLI sums the constrained acreage for all
employment designated properties, by land use and zoning and subtracts from Total
Vacant Acres (Step 4a).
Step 4c. Gross Buildable Vacant Employment Acres. Using the sum of the totals
generated from Steps 4a and 4b the BLI calculates the Gross Buildable Vacant
Employment land by land use and zoning for the City Limits and the UGB.
Step 4d. Public Facility Acres. The Gross Buildable Vacant Acreage figure (Step 4c) is
reduced by 25% to account for public right-of-way to yield Net Buildable Vacant
Acreage.
Step 4e. Employment Redevelopment Acres. The BLI identifies all employment
designated tax lots for their redevelopment potential. Employment designated properties
in excess of with a Land (L) to Improvement (I) ratio in less than 1 are defined and have
30
a single-family detached dwelling on-site are considered to be redevelopable during the
20-year planning period.
Step 4f. Total Net Buildable Employment Acres. The Employment Redevelopment
Acres (Step 4e) are added to the Net Buildable Vacant Acres (Step 4e) to yield Total Net
Buildable Acres for the City’s employment lands.
31
32
May 7, 2019
Agenda Item: VIII-C
Introduce and discuss the 2019 Economic Element Update. Applicant: City of Central Point. File No.
CPA-19003.
Staff Source
Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner
Tom Humphrey, AICP, Community Development Director
Background
There is interest in expanding the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to include land in the CP-3 Urban
Reserve Area (URA) to accommodate business growth and job creation. The City Council approved
Resolution No. 1432 declaring its intent to initiate a UGB amendment into CP-3 for this purpose
(Attachment “A”). A prerequisite to expanding the UGB is showing a demonstrated need for additional
commercial land. The basis for determining commercial land use needs is found in the Economic
Element, which was last updated in 2013. Since that time, the City has added 49 acres of industrial land to
the UGB, experienced growth on commercial lands in the City and received updated population and
employment forecast data. Consequently the City needs to update the Economic Element to consider
these changes prior to any formal consideration of expanding the UGB.
Economic Element Overview:
Statewide Planning Goal 9 is to “provide adequate opportunities throughout the state for a variety of
economic activities vital to the health, welfare and prosperity of Oregon’s citizens.” To accomplish this
the City conducts long-range planning following the requirements in OAR 660-009 to achieve the City’s
preferred future relative to economic development for the mutual benefit of local and state residents. The
planning process involves four (4) steps:
1. Review national, state, regional, county and local economic trends;
2. Identify the types and number of sites needed to accommodate growth;
3. Inventory the industrial lands, employment lands, and vacant lands; and,
4. Assess the community’s potential for economic development.
Through this process the City evaluates its employment opportunities and associated land demand over
the short (5-year) and long (20-year) term, as necessary to establish the economic goals and policies that
will guide the City’s employment activities over the next 20-years (2019-2039).
At the May 7, 2019 Planning Commission meeting staff and the Consultant will present a draft of the
Economic Element including the methodology and significant findings for discussion (Attachment “B”).
33
Issues
The most significant finding in the Economic Element is that Central Point is poised to capture nearly 7%
of new jobs in the region resulting in a need for enough employment lands over the next 20 years for
1,915 new jobs. Based on the available lands supply and analysis of land demand relative to site
requirements for employment industries, the City has a surplus of Industrial land but needs roughly 73
acres to meet the demand for commercial/service, civic, and other employment related land uses for the
time period 2019-2039.
Attachments:
Attachment “A” – Resolution No. 1432
Attachment “B” – Economic Element (Discussion Draft)
Action
Discuss the Economic Element and direct staff to: 1) schedule for a public hearing; 2) schedule for a
public hearing without changes, or 3) make changes and bring back for further discussion at the June 4,
2019 Planning Commission meeting.
Recommendation
Direct staff to schedule the Economic Element for a public hearing with or without changes.
34
RESOLUTION NO.
A RESOLUTION DECLARING THE CITY COUNCIL'S INTENT TO INITIATE AN
AMENDMENT TO THE CENTRAL POINT URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY (UGB),
AND THE COMPREHENSIVE PLAN (MAP) TO ADD LAND FROM THE CITY'S
URBAN RESERVE AREA (URA) CP-3 FOR JOB CREATION AND OPEN SPACE
PRESERVATION IN THE CITY OF CENTRAL POINT
RECITALS:
A. An amendment of'the Central Point Comprehensive Land Use Plan may be initiated
by adoption of a resolution of intention by the City Council (Chapter 17.96.200.B);
and
B. The City's Urban Growth Boundary Management Agreement (UGBMA) with
Jackson County states that individuals and groups may petition the County or
appropriate City ... for initiating major legislative amendments. The City Council has
received a request to initiate a UGB amendment for property located in a newly
formed Urban Reserve Area (URA) known as CP-3.
C. The City Council has reason to believe that expansion of the UGB into CP-3 and
changes to the Comprehensive Plan (map) will facilitate the relocation and growth of
a prominent regional business and promote job creation in the city consistent with the
development objectives for CP-3.
D. The City Council determines that it is in the City's economic interest and that the
public necessity and convenience and general welfare support such an amendment.
The City of Central Point resolves:
Section 1: By this resolution the City Council authorizes the Community Development
Department to proceed with consideration of an amendment to the Urban Growth Boundary
UGB). including necessary and related Comprehensive Plan (Map) Amendments.
Section 2: Unless otherwise authorized by the City Council the UGB amendment shall be
limited to URA CP-3 and the uses agreed to in the Regional Plan.
Section 3: All conditions of the Regional Plan Element applicable to UGB expansions in
general, and to CP-3 specifically, shall be satisfied in order to amend the UGB.
Section 4: Prior to formal application for the actions cited in Section 1 of this resolution the
requirements of Section 17.96 of the City of Central Point Municipal Code shall be met.
35
PASSED by the Council and signed by me in authentication of its passage this 13th day of
August. 2015.
pW
Mayor Hank Williams
ATTE:
City Recorder
Resolution No. 1432 36
ECONOMIC ELEMENT
2019-2039
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan
Prepared by
Huycke O’Connor Jarvis, LLP 823 Alder Creek Drive
Medford, OR 97504
April 2019
**SECOND DRAFT**
37
Preface
Legal Requirements: Oregon law requires local municipalities to adopt an Economic Element as
a part of their Comprehensive Plans. OAR 660-009-0015. These Economic Elements help to
implement Oregon Statewide Planning Goal #9, which is “to provide adequate opportunities throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare, and prosperity of Oregon’s citizens.” That is, Goal #9 encourages local governments, like Central
Point, to achieve their economic development planning goals so as to benefit the state’s
residents.
Framework: Oregon Administrative Rules, Chapter 660, Division 9 calls for a four-step approach to economic development planning:
1. Review national, state, regional, county, and local economic trends
2. Identify the types and number of sites needed to accommodate growth 3. Inventory the industrial lands, employment lands, and vacant lands 4. Assess the community’s potential for economic development
This Economic Element follows these steps: Section 1 reviews Central Point’s economic history,
Section 2 analyzes national economic trends, Section 3 reviews economic data concerning the State of Oregon, Section 4 reviews both Southern Oregon and Central Point’s economy, Section
5 contains a Population and Employment Forecast, Section 6 analyzes land demand for Central
Point in both the short-term (5 years) and long-term (20 years), and Section 7 outlines the City’s
economic goals and policies that will guide the City of Central Point through the twenty-year
planning period (2019-2039).
This document will help guide the City of Central Point’s future growth and development,
correct problems, maximize potentials, and act as a guide for decision-making. For a more
complete analysis of Central Point’s planning needs, see the Comprehensive Plan (updated 1983)
and the corresponding Population, Housing, and Land Use Elements, as well as the Central Point Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (2019-2039).1
This document should be read along with the Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (2019)
and any subsequent inventory updates.
1 See generally City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan (updated 1983).
38
Table of Contents
Preface............................................................................................................................................. 2
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 3
List of Figures: ................................................................................................................................ 5
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Section 1: Central Point’s Economic History. ........................................................................... 8
Section 2: National Economic Trends ....................................................................................... 9
Measuring the National Economy .............................................................................................. 9
i. Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................... 9 ii. Employment ................................................................................................................ 12 iii. Inflation ....................................................................................................................... 14
National Economic Crosscurrents: ........................................................................................... 16
i. Trade Wars .................................................................................................................. 16
ii. Income Inequality ....................................................................................................... 17 iii. Cost of Health Care ..................................................................................................... 17 iv. Cost of Education ........................................................................................................ 18
Section 3: State Economic Trends ........................................................................................... 19
Neighboring States .................................................................................................................... 19
Measuring the State Economy .................................................................................................. 20 i. Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................. 20
ii. Employment ................................................................................................................ 21
iii. Industry Strengths ....................................................................................................... 23
State Economic Crosscurrents: ................................................................................................. 25
i. The National Economy ............................................................................................... 25 ii. Trade Wars .................................................................................................................. 25
iii. Housing Affordability ................................................................................................. 26
iv. Wildfires and Smoke................................................................................................... 26
Section 4: Economic Trends in Southern Oregon .................................................................... 27
i. Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................................. 27 ii. Employment ................................................................................................................ 29
iii. Housing ....................................................................................................................... 30
Section 5: The City of Central Point’s Trends .............................................................................. 31
Measuring the City’s Trends ..................................................................................................... 31
i. Commuting Patterns.................................................................................................... 31 ii. Local Population Forecast........................................................................................... 32
iii. Regional Employment Forecast .................................................................................. 35
iv. Regional Competitiveness .......................................................................................... 40
v. Economic Development Context ................................................................................ 42
vi. Competitive Position Summary .................................................................................. 44 vii. Assessment of Central Point’s Economic Development Potential ............................. 44
viii. Central Point’s Projected Job Growth ......................................................................... 45
Section 6: Land Demand .......................................................................................................... 48
Economic Growth Rate Forecast .............................................................................................. 48
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing .................................................................................... 48
39
ii. Trucking and Warehousing ......................................................................................... 48
iii. Retail ........................................................................................................................... 49
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry ...................................................................... 49
i. Site Requirements Analysis ........................................................................................ 50 ii. Target Industries’ Unique Site Requirements ............................................................. 51
Long-Term Land Demand Estimate ......................................................................................... 52
iii. Estimate of Redevelopment ........................................................................................ 53
Short-Term Land Demand Estimate ......................................................................................... 54
Inventory of Employment Lands .............................................................................................. 54 i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency................................................................... 54
ii. Vacant Lands .............................................................................................................. 55
iii. Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 55
Section 7: Goals, Conclusions, and Policies ............................................................................ 56
Goal: General Economic Development .................................................................................... 56 i. Policy 1: Participation ................................................................................................. 58
ii. Policy 2: Refine Policies ............................................................................................. 58
iii. Policy 3: Monitor Long-Term Consequences ............................................................. 58
Goal: Economic Opportunities Synthesis ................................................................................. 58
i. Policy 4: Small Businesses ......................................................................................... 58 ii. Policy 5: Tolo Area ..................................................................................................... 59
iii. Policy 6: Monitor Regulations .................................................................................... 59
Goal: Employment Land Supply and Development ................................................................. 59
i. Policy 7: Adequate Short-Term Supply ...................................................................... 60
ii. Policy 8: Prepare for Long-Term Needs ..................................................................... 60 iii. Policy 9: Adequate Supplies for Small Businesses..................................................... 60
40
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP ................................................................................ 11
Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950 .................................................................... 13
Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006................................................................... 13 Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ....................................... 15 Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ....................................... 15
Figure 6: U.S. Health-Care Spending as a Share of GDP ............................................................. 17
Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017 ................................................................................................ 20
Figure 8: Short-Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon ................................................................ 21 Figure 9: Oregon’s Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................... 22 Figure 10: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 2016 ................. 23
Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County’s GDP ............................................................................. 28
Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County’s GDP .......................................................................... 28
Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate ......................................................................... 29 Figure 14: Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns ............................................................... 31 Figure 15: Jackson County―Total Population by Five-year Intervals (1975-2017) ................... 33
Figure 16: Population Growth Projections for City of Central Point and Jackson County .......... 34
Figure 17: Central Point Population Pyramid ............................................................................... 34
Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, 2017-2027 .................................. 36 Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2017-2027 .......................................... 38
Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2027 ................................................................ 39
Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast..................................................................................... 40
Figure 22: Jackson County Shift-Share Analysis 2010-2017 ....................................................... 41
Figure 23: Central Point’s Qualitative Trends .............................................................................. 43 Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential....................................................... 45
Figure 25: Central Point’s population growth rate ....................................................................... 46
Figure 26: Central Point's 20-year job forecast by industry ......................................................... 47
Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry ....................................................... 50
Figure 28: General Development Pattern Site Requirements ....................................................... 51 Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039 ............................ 53
41
Introduction
Purpose: The purpose of this Economic Element is to determine the City of Central Point’s
economic goals, policies, and land use needs. It identifies economic development opportunities
and corresponding employment land needs for the next 20 years (2019-2039). It also provides a realistic analysis of current economic trends and potential disruptions. Through this, Central Point will be better able to reduce costs and delays, anticipate obstacles, and keep planning
activities aligned with the City’s policies.
Past Elements: The City of Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan in 1973.2 In 1980, the Rogue Valley Council of Governments prepared the City of Central Point’s first Economic Element.3 That document was subsequently succeeded in 2013 by a
version prepared by CSA Associates.4 This Economic Element of 2018 supersedes the previous
versions and becomes part of Central Point’s Comprehensive Plan. It establishes the framework
for future economic growth and development and gives a long-range evaluation of the City’s changing characteristics and needs.
Geographic Scope: This Economic Element is limited in scope to developments within the
Central Point city limits and the Urban Growth Boundary. Central Point is located near the
geographic center of Jackson County in southwestern Oregon, approximately midway between Portland and San Francisco.5 The City has the advantage of being located directly on Interstate 5
(I-5), Highway 99 (U.S. Route 99), the Southern Pacific Railway, and adjacent to the Rogue
Valley International Airport. Immediately to the south of Central Point is the City of Medford,
which is the seat of Jackson County and the largest city in Southern Oregon. This provides
Central Point residents with easy access to major shopping centers, employment, and governmental activities.
2 Id. at Preface 1. 3 City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 at 5 (2013). 4 See id. 5 City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan, Part IV, Plan Summary 3 (updated 1983).
42
Summary
This Economic Element includes an economic history of Central Point, it analyzes current
national, state, and regional economic trends, includes an employment forecast, and an inventory
of lands used for employment. The final section outlines the City’s economic goals and policies that will guide the City through the twenty-year planning period (2019-2039).
The national economy is doing well, with GDP at a very healthy rate, unemployment down, and
inflation moderate. However, leading economist are warning that the U.S. economy will slow
and may even slide into a recession around the year 2020. Further, the economic health of the country is increasingly threatened by the possibility of trade wars, growing income inequality, and the costs of health care and education. As a result, the City of Central Point must be prepared
for economic fluctuations in both the short- and long-term, which could seriously impact its land
use planning forecasts.
The state economy is “hitting the sweet spot” and doing well compared to other states. GDP is rising, employment has recovered from the Great Recession, and it has growing industries.
However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the state economy is at risk
from the U.S. economy’s volatility, retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, a prolonged
affordable housing crisis, as well as the impact of forest fires and smoke. While the economy may remain strong, the City should brace itself for a slowdown like the 1990s recession.
The Southern Oregon region is doing even better than the state economy. Although the region
was hit hard by the Great Recession, and recovery has been difficult, the GDP is growing faster
than the national rate and USA Today has ranked both Jackson and Josephine counties as the 28th and 18th best local economies in the nation respectively. Nevertheless, the area still has high
unemployment rates and is suffering from a lack of affordable housing for middle class workers.
Central Point has a high population growth rate and is expected to grow to approximately 26,000
people by 2039. This means that Central Point will surpass the City of Ashland’s population and capture almost 7 percent of the new jobs in the region over the next 20 years. The gains will be
concentrated in service, health care, construction, professional, and the business industries. Its
target industries include specialty foods, trucking and warehousing, and retail. According to the
population and job capture rate, Central Point will need approximately 13 acres of new
employment lands in the next 5 years and anywhere from 65 to 73 new acres by 2039.
Ultimately, future economic conditions cannot be accurately predicted. However, strategically
planning the City of Central Point’s land base for the long-term has the potential to benefit
economic development in the City and the surrounding area. This includes preparing to
accommodate future needs and integrating the City’s land use planning efforts within a broader economic development strategy.
Central Point’s last Economic Element was created in 2013. Because it relied on data from the
2010 census, and because there will be little new data before the 2020 census, much of this
Economic Element is similar or identical to that of the last element. Furthermore, many of the conclusions in that element remain valid and are adopted.
43
Section 1: Central Point’s Economic History.
Central Point’s economic history has centered on trade, resource-based industries such as forest
products and agriculture, and minor retail for its residential areas.
Incorporated by the State Legislature in 1889, Central Point was so named because of its location at the center of the inhabited parts of the Rogue Valley.6 Before then, Jacksonville had served as
the region’s economic center. However, when the railroad was built, Jacksonville was bypassed,
and the tracks were built through what is now Central Point.
Central Point’s railroad station was the closest point to reach Crater Lake from the South. All the county roads leading from Ashland, Jacksonville, and Medford passed through Central Point,
making it a prime area for shipping and trading.7
Central Point is located near some of Jackson County’s most fertile soils and was well located to serve the surrounding farmers. Indeed, this remained the foundation of the City’s economy well into the 1960s. Central Point’s location allowed it to act as a trading location for the farming
community, a location for schools, and as a well-placed area for shops and services. The City
housed the Grange Co-op’s grain elevator and various farm repair shops and equipment retail.
Between the 1960s and 1970s, the City of Central Point rapidly expanded its residential
development. Because there was no corresponding development of commercial and industrial
industries, Central Point became a residential community largely inhabited by people who
commuted to nearby cities for work. During this period the forest products industry grew, and
residents of Central Point were able to find employment at the mills in Medford and White City.
In 1980, the City of Central Point adopted its first Economic Element that has herewith been
replaced by this Economic Element. The U.S. economy has undergone several economic cycles
since then. The 1980 Economic Element sought to diversify the City’s economy and reduce the
degree of imbalance between employment and housing within the City. Central Point has been successful to some extent over the last thirty years in its efforts to diversify its economy. The
City has experienced retail and industrial growth in and around Exit 33 on Interstate 5.
Providence Hospital recently added a medical facility on Highway 99 south of Pine Street. A
small specialty foods cluster has developed along Highway 99 north of Pine Street that includes
Rogue Creamery, Lillie Belle Farms chocolates and a wine tasting room. The Rogue Valley Council of Governments has its main office building near downtown Central Point. A new
Costco Wholesale store opened off of Table Rock Road in 2017. Further, newer retail exists near
freeway interchanges and along Pine Street and Highway 99. These employers and others have
served (and an overarching objective of this Economic Element is) to continue to add more
balance and diversity to the City’s employment base.
6 Democratic Times, Jacksonville, page 1 (July 18, 1889). 7 Id.
44
Section 2: National Economic Trends
Purpose It is important to review current trends in the U.S. economy. The national
economy provides the necessary context for the adoption of updated economic development
policies and strategies in the City’s Comprehensive Plan. By engaging with governmental projections and economic forecasts, the City will be better able to position itself for long-term success. This review of national trends will help inform the Economic element by providing a
foundation to describe the City’s economic advantages and disadvantages.
National Economic Trends The U.S. economy is booming. However, “potential danger lurks around the corner.”8 Over the last decade, the national economy has largely recovered from the Great Recession: unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate,
people appear confident in the economy, and the International Monetary Fund has projected a
short-term growth of just under 3 percent.9
However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis warns that there are signs of a potential economic slowdown around 2020. Economic crosscurrents threaten economic stability, including
the potential for global trade wars, increasing costs of health care, and the increasing burdens of
higher education on younger generations. This indicates the likelihood of strong short-term
growth for the United States but relative weakness in the medium and long term.10 While there will likely be a downturn in the economy, it will probably be less severe than the Great
Recession.11 Because there is no obvious asset or investment bubble today (unlike the subprime
mortgages of 2008), if a recession occurs it will probably be similar to the recession of 1990.12
Measuring the National Economy
There are many ways to analyze the national economy, such as the GDP, unemployment rate,
and inflation rates. Each of these helps to describe how well the economy is doing and may
indicate how healthy the economy will be in the future.
i. Gross Domestic Product
What is Gross Domestic Product? Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) is a measurement of how
many goods and services the United States produces.13 Because it measures production, it is one
of the primary indicators used by economists to determine the health of the economy.14 The ideal
8 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018). 9 Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy looks ‘good’ for the ‘next couple of years at least’,
CNBC (Oct. 9, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/mohamed-el-erian-us-economy-headed-for-solid-growth-for-couple-years.html. 10 Id. at 6. 11 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/10/26/hammer-dont-hurt-em/. 12 Id. 13 Harriet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-at-3-5-rate-in-third-quarter-1540557378. 14 Leslie Kramer, What is GDP and why is it so important to economists and investors? Investopedia (Feb. 5, 2018),
available at: www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/what-is-gdp-why-its-important-to-economists-investors/.
45
GDP growth rate is between 2-3 percent.15 If GDP grows too slowly it could indicate some
economic unhealthiness; if it grows too fast it could mean that there is an asset bubble and that
the economy is overheating.
Past Trends Since Central Point published its first economic element in 1980, the national
GDP has had its ups and downs. The Recession of the early 1980s was followed by an economic
boom that lasted until 1990. The short Recession of 1990 was followed by a decade of economic
prosperity. Although there was a modest downturn in 2000-2001, that was replaced with
continuing economic expansion through 2006. Then came the Great Recession, the worst period since World War II from a GDP perspective. In five out of six quarters from the end of 2007 to
the beginning of 2009 the GDP actually went negative. After a decade of recovery, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics anticipates that the economy will fully recover by 2020.16
Recent Growth Currently, the U.S. GDP is increasing at a good rate. See Figure 1. Although there has not been explosive growth,17 the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has
characterized the US economy as “entering into its boom phase of the business cycle.”18
The last two quarters mark the strongest back-to-back quarters of U.S. economic growth since
2014.19 According to the Department of Commerce, the national GDP grew at a rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018.20 While this was stronger than expected, this was down from
4.2 percent expansion in the previous quarter.21 Economists have explained that this was due to
strong consumer spending,22 a drop in unemployment,23 and the results of the recent tax cuts,
including business investment, the restocking of inventories,24 and excessive borrowing by the
Federal Government.25
15 Kimberly Amadeo, What is the Ideal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance
(Oct. 5, 2018), available at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-gdp-growth-rate-3306017. 16 Id. 17 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone, CNN Business (May 1, 2018) available at: money.cnn.com/2018/05/01/news/economy/us-economy-great-recession-recovery/index.html. 18 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018). 19 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak, CFO Magazine (October 26, 2018), available at:
ww2.cfo.com/the-economy/2018/10/u-s-gdp-continues-hot-streak/. 20 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018 (advance estimate) (Oct. 26, 2018). 21 Fred Imbert, The US economy grew at a 3.5% pace in the third quarter, faster than expected, CNBC (Oct. 26,
2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/first-read-on-us-q3-2018-gross-domestic-product.html. 22 Id. 23 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone. 24 Sarah Foster, What Economists Are Saying Ahead of Third-Quarter U.S. GDP Data, Bloomberg (Oct. 25, 2018), available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-26/what-economists-are-saying-ahead-of-third-quarter-u-s-gdp-data. 25 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone.
46
Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP
Short-Term Projections The U.S. GDP is currently on a “hot streak”26 and will probably maintain 2.5-3 percent growth through 2019. However, it is difficult to predict future growth
beyond that. In fact, forecasts by national economists for short-term growth are conflicted. While
some predict multiple years of 3 percent growth,27 the International Monetary Fund has projected
a short-term growth of under 3 percent for 2018 and 2.5 percent for 2019.28 The Federal Reserve
has a similar opinion, projecting that the GDP rate will decrease to 2.5% in 2019, 2% in 2020, and 1.8% in 2021.29 This, coupled with the threat of a major trade war with China, have led to
fears of an economic slowdown sometime around 2020. In fact, Moody's Analytics chief
economist Mark Zandi has said, “By mid-2020, we will be most vulnerable to the next
recession.”30 Long-Term Projections It is even more difficult to project how the national GDP will fare
over the next two decades. Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has said,
“trying to forecast a period of prolonged weakness, or even a possible recession two years in
advance is a fool’s errand . . . . There’s just too much time, too many potential variables . . . to
alter the course that far in the future.”31
Here, there are too many variables that can change. However, some things will occur with near-
certainty. First, over the next two decades the economy will evolve. Some industries will
diminish, some will expand, while still others will be created. Second, there will be some good
years and some not-so good years. That is, things will not always be as good as they are now. Third, on average, there will probably be more years of healthy GDP growth than not.
26 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak. 27 Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy looks ‘good’ for the ‘next couple of years at least.’ 28 Id. 29 Harriet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-at-3-5-rate-in-third-quarter-1540557378. 30 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone. 31 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em.
47
Conclusion Central Point must accept the reality of long-term GDP fluctuations when
engaging in planning and decision-making. City leaders should not adopt the view that because
things are good now that they will always be good. Instead, Central Point should have long-term
plans that accept the fundamentals of the free market.
ii. Employment
What is Unemployment? Unemployment measures how many people in the country do not
have jobs. Unemployment occurs when a person who is actively searching for a job is unable to find work.32 Like GDP, it is one of the main indicators of an economy’s health. Of particular
importance to economists is the “unemployment rate,” which is calculated by taking the number
of unemployed people and dividing by the number of people employed.33 Unlike GDP, the
unemployment rate usually rises or falls after changing economic conditions, rather than
anticipating an economic event.34 Even a healthy economy will have a certain number of people unemployed: some will be between jobs and others will have been displaced by an evolving economy.
Past Trends The United States has never had zero percent unemployment. The lowest rate ever
recorded was 2.5 percent in mid-1953. It occurred because “the economy overheated during the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the recession of 1953.”35 Since Central Point
published its first Economic Element, the U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated in line with the
economic booms and busts. The highest rates were 10.8 percent in 1982 and 10 percent at the
height of the Great Recession in December 2009. In turn, the lowest rates were 3.8 percent in
April 2000, and 4.4 percent in 2006 and 2007.
Recent Trends Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7 percent, the lowest
in nearly half a century.36 Figure 2 depicts the rapid increase in unemployment during the Great
Recession and the slow recovery over the last decade. Unemployment has been declining and has
finally fallen below pre-Recession levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics assumes that the economy will fully recover from the Great Recession by 2020 and that the labor force will return
to a full unemployment rate of 4 to 5 percent.37
32 What is Unemployment, Investopedia, available at: www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp#ixzz5VjPvdupQ. 33 Id. 34 What is Unemployment Rate, Investopedia, available at: www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp. 35 Kimberly Amadeo, Natural Rate of Unemployment, Its Components, and Recent Trends: Why Zero Unemployment Isn't as Good as It Sounds, The Balance (Sept. 26, 2018). 36 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak. 37 Kimberly Amadeo, What is the Ideal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance
(Oct. 5, 2018), available at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-gdp-growth-rate-3306017.
48
Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950
Figure 3 depicts the strong relationship between unemployment and educational attainment.
Those without a high school diploma have experienced unemployment rates that are almost
double that of individuals with a college education. However, the rate of unemployment has been declining at a much faster pace over the last several years for those without a high school
diploma than those with a college education. Overall, unemployment levels are good when
measured on a national scale.
Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006
Short-Term Projections The current unemployment rate is unsustainable.38 Both Moody’s Analytics and Goldman Sachs’s chief economists have forecasted that unemployment will
continue to decline to 3 percent by early 2020.39 However, there are conflicting forecasts after
that. Either the anticipated 2020 slowdown could prevent the economy from overheating and
38 Rebecca Rainey, Happy Jobs Day! Politico (Nov. 2, 2018), available at: www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-shift/2018/11/02/happy-jobs-day-399113. 39 Brian Cheung, Goldman Sachs warns the economy may be growing too quickly, Yahoo Finance (Nov. 5, 2018),
available at: sports.yahoo.com/goldman-says-fed-needs-avoid-dangerous-overheating-154158689.html. Also see Martin Crutsinger, Fed likely to keep rates on hold and sketch a bright outlook, AP (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.wacotrib.com/news/ap_nation/fed-likely-to-keep-rates-on-hold-and-sketch-a/article_eb9369f3-bf36-5557-
977d-51354f1832a9.html.
49
temporarily stabilize the unemployment rate or the economy will slow too much, potentially
destabilizing the employment rate, causing it to increase.40 The Federal Reserve estimates that
the normal unemployment rate (absent shocks to the economy) will rise back up to between 4-5
percent over the next five to six years.41 While it is unclear whether unemployment will hold steady for a while longer or if it will begin rising again as soon as 2020, it is highly probable that unemployment will be going back up.
Long-Term Projections Like forecasting GDP rates decades in advance, it is also difficult
to project unemployment rates for the next two decades. However, it should be noted that the average unemployment rate for the U.S. between 1948 and 2018 was 5.77 percent, with a high of 10.8 percent and a record low of 2.5 percent. As a result, the average unemployment rate will
probably stay in these bounds, close to the average.42
Conclusion The unemployment rate is currently very low and will be going back up. A possible slowdown or recession around 2020 could either stabilize the rate or cause it to rise
sharply. Ultimately, unemployment will probably stay around 3 percent for the next couple years
and average 5 percent over the next two decades.
iii. Inflation
What is inflation? Inflation is the measure of how much the price of goods and services
increases over time.43 It means that things cost more and more instead of staying the same price.
For example, if a gallon of milk has an inflation rate of 2 percent per year, then the price of milk
will be 2 percent higher next year. Importantly, inflation is not primarily caused by the Federal Government printing too much money. Instead, inflation usually rises because buyers want products so much that they are willing to pay higher prices.
If workers’ wages do not keep pace with inflation, people have less buying power. The opposite
of inflation is deflation, which is when things cost less than they did before. It is important to measure inflation because it shows if on average people are prospering or suffering under the current economy.
Measuring Inflation There are different ways to measure inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics uses the Consumer Price Index.44 In the United States, the Federal Reserve aims for a target annual inflation rate of 2 percent.45
Past trends Figure 4 shows how inflation has occurred over the last seven decades. When
Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the United States was undergoing a
40 Id. 41 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, What is the lowest level of unemployment that the U.S.
economy can sustain? FAQs (Sept. 26, 2018), available at: www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14424.htm. 42 Trading Economics, United States Unemployment Rate, (Oct. 2018), available at: tradingeconomics.com/united-
states/unemployment-rate. 43 Kimberly Amadeo, Why Inflation Is as “Violent as a Mugger” The Balance (Oct. 30, 2018), available at www.thebalance.com/what-is-inflation-how-it-s-measured-and-managed-3306170. 44 Id. 45 Id.
50
period of massive inflation. Inflation was over 7 percent in the 1970s and almost 6 percent in the
1980s. Since then, inflation has dropped to the 3 percent range in the 1990s and under 2 percent
in the pre-Great Recession years. In 2009, inflation averaged -0.34 percent. However, inflation
has been steadily climbing back up and, in the twelve months leading up to September 2018, the Consumer Price Index increased 2.3 percent.
Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
Short-Term Projections At the moment, inflation is relatively benign.46 The price of food
goods is remaining steady while the cost of vehicles has fallen sharply.47 Increases in the
Consumer Price Index have been tied to increasing rental prices and the cost of home
ownership.48 However, the Federal Reserve projects greater than 2 percent inflation over the next
couple of years. See Figure 5, which shows the recent history of the Consumer Price Index. Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
46 Jeffry Bartash, Inflation rises slowly in September in latest sign of easing price pressures, CPI shows, Market
Watch (Oct. 11, 2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-costs-nudge-inflation-higher-in-september-cpi-shows-2018-10-11. 47 Id. 48 Id.
51
Long-Term Projections Although the current inflation rate is 2.28 percent, this is well
below the 3.76 average since the end of WWII.49 As a result, in the long term, inflation will
probably be moving back up to better approach the average rate. Conclusion In the long run, inflation will probably be increasing to better align with the
averages of the last century. Unless wages also increase to meet inflation, it will become harder
for individuals to purchase things.
National Economic Crosscurrents:
Primary Risks to the U.S. Economy The national economy appears healthy: GDP has a good
growth forecast, unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate,
and people appear confident in the economy. In addition to analyzing the traditional measurements of economic success, it is also important to consider strategic threats to the economy that have not yet sufficiently impacted the economic data.
There are several things that put the economy at risk in both the short and long-term: trade wars,
increasing income inequality, and the costs of health care and education. i. Trade Wars
First among the dangers to the national economy is the simmering trade war. Although there has
been little impact so far, the possibility of escalation could severely harm the national economy. Already, the US soy industry could be on the verge of collapse, with sales down 94 percent to China because of the retaliatory tariffs.50 Because soybeans are usually routed through the
Pacific Northwest on their way to Asia, this could harm Oregon’s economy.51
Many other industries are also threatened, with duties on steel and aluminum costing U.S. companies about half a billion dollars in September 2018 alone.52 An escalation in the trade wars
(either by including more countries or a wider range of goods) would harm U.S. industries,
transportation companies, and consumers across the board.53 It would also lead to an increase in
prices and inflation, requiring the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.
49 Jill Mislinski, A Long-Term Look at Inflation, Advisor Perspectives (Oct. 2018), available at:
www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/10/12/a-long-term-look-at-inflation. 50 Binyamin Appelbaum, Their Soybeans Piling Up, Farmers Hope Trade War Ends Before Beans Rot, New York Times (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html 51 Isis Almeida, Trump’s Tariff War Scrambles Agricultural Trade Routes, Bloomberg Business (Nov. 1, 2018), available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-01/trump-s-tariff-war-scrambles-u-s-trade-routes-as-soy-
piles-up 52 Stephanie Dhue and Yian Mui, American businesses paid 50% more in tariffs in September due to Trump's trade war, industry coalition says, CNBC (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/tariff-payments-up-50percent-in-september-on-trump-trade-war-industry-group.html. 53 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 2018).
52
ii. Income Inequality
Income inequality is a system-level issue for the United States economy.54 Over the last 20
years, the top 10 percent of income earners have received a nearly 200 percent increase in their overall median net worth, while the bottom 40 percent of earners have seen an actual decline in their net worth.55 This economic upheaval will have a major impact on government spending; an
aging population that has less of an ability to support itself will require more help from
entitlement and social programs. In the long term, it has the potential to negatively impact
institutional investors’ portfolios; increase financial and social system-level instability; damage output and slow economic growth; increase the Federal Deficit; and contribute to the tendencies
toward protectionism and tariffs.56
iii. Cost of Health Care
The cost of health care for the American consumer is increasing. Since the City of Central Point
first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the U.S. has gone from spending 7.2 percent of
its GDP on health care to almost 18 percent today.57 See Figure 6. While total inflation is
averaging around 2.3 percent, healthcare has increased 3.7 percent. What is more, the price of
health care is rising faster than normal prices and companies are having to spend more on health insurance premiums.58 As a result, employees are taking less money home with them.
Figure 6: U.S. Health-Care Spending as a Share of GDP
54 Bob Eccles, Investors Can And Should Address The Fundamental Causes Of Income Inequality, Forbes (Oct. 30,
2018) available at: www.forbes.com/sites/bobeccles/2018/10/30/investors-can-and-should-address-the-fundamental-
causes-of-income-inequality/#46f07c851ed5. 55 Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause U.S. debt downgrade, Moody’s says, MarketWatch (Oct. 27, 2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-inequality-could-cause-us-debt-downgrade-moodys-
says-2018-10-12. 56 Steve Lydenberg, et al., New Report: Why and How Investors Can Respond to Income Inequality, The Investment
Integration Project (2018) available at: www.tiiproject.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Why-and-How-Investors-
Can-Respond-to-Income-Inequality.pdf (PDF warning). 57 Noah Smith, Efforts to slow the rise in the country’s insanely expensive system have gone nowhere, Bloomberg (Oct. 29, 2018). 58 Id.
53
iv. Cost of Education
The burden of student debt is likely to keep growing, which will dramatically inhibit the ability
of younger generations to accumulate wealth.59 Outstanding student loans are already approaching $1.2 trillion.60 While inflation is around 2.3 percent, and health care costs are rising
at 3.7 percent, education expenses are rising at an incredible rate of 5.2 percent.61 In fact, if
education inflation continues at this rate, the cost of tuition and fees for a four-year public
university by 2028 will be between $65,590 for in-state public schools and $224,124 for private
colleges.62 Many parents are burdened with saving large amounts of money to pay for their children’s
college education. Further, many young adults are already burdened with enormous student loan
debts. Because parents and/or college graduates will need to spend enormous sums on tuition,
and wages are not rising to meet this increase, people will either be prevented from getting a higher education or will be stuck paying off loans for a much longer period. In either case, that is bad news for the economy.
59 Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause U.S. debt downgrade, Moody’s says, MarketWatch (Oct. 27, 2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-inequality-could-cause-us-debt-downgrade-moodys-
says-2018-10-12. 60 Mike Patton, The Cost of College: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow, Forbes (Nov. 19, 2018), available at: www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2015/11/19/the-cost-of-college-yesterday-today-and-tomorrow/#556eff706060. 61 Id. 62 Id.
54
Section 3: State Economic Trends
Oregon’s economy is “hitting the sweet spot” and doing better than most other states.63 Wages
and household incomes are rising, and workers are coming back into the labor market.64 Further,
because state revenues are higher than forecasted, Oregon taxpayers should expect to receive a bonus “kicker” on their income tax returns in 2019.65
While the state economy is doing well, it is also acting more volatile than the national
economy.66 Josh Lehner, senior economist at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, is
concerned that while the economy is still growing, the pace of that growth is slowing down. Further, “We expect that pattern to continue—that growth tomorrow will be slower than growth today.”67
Panelists at the 15th Annual Oregon Economic Forum indicated that economic trouble for the
state is likely still a few years away.68 Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank has interpreted the data as suggesting that the state economy is one or two years away from a recession.69 However, both McCain and Oregon Economic Forum director Tim Duy noted that
a future recession may not be as bad as the Great Recession.70
Neighboring States
Oregon is geographically well situated because its neighboring states to the north and south have
very strong economies.
Washington State’s GDP has grown 3 percent over the last five years, the largest increase in the nation.71 It has the 14th largest GDP in the country at $439.4 billion in 2017.72 However, it also
ranked 47th in the US by unemployment rate, which was 4.7 percent in June 2018.73
California has the largest economy in the United States.74 If California was a country, it would
63 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 2018). 64 Id. at 1. 65 Jade McDowell, Oregon’s economy is strong, but how long will it last? Eastern Oregonian (Oct. 12, 2018), available at: www.eastoregonian.com/eo/local-news/20181012/oregons-economy-is-strong-but-how-long-will-it-
last. 66 Id. 67 Id. 68 Anthony Macuk, Economists at Oregon forum: Don’t expect an imminent recession, The Columbian (Oct. 17, 2018), available at: www.columbian.com/news/2018/oct/17/economists-at-oregon-forum-dont-expect-an-imminent-recession/. 69 Id. 70 Id. 71 Oregon Small Business Association Foundation, Oregon #12 in nation’s Best State Economies, Oregon Business
Report (Oct. 15, 2018). 72 Id. 73 Id. 74 Id.
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have the fifth largest economy in the world.75 California’s GDP grew almost as much as
Washington’s at 2.9 percent over the last five years.76 Its GDP was eleven times that of
Oregon’s, at $2.4 trillion. While its unemployment rate is slightly above average at 4.2 percent, it
has had a five year annual employment growth of 2.2 percent, which is the eighth best in the nation.77
Measuring the State Economy
Like the national economy, there are similar ways to analyze Oregon’s economy: GDP and employment are important, as infomration specific to Oregon’s industries.
i. Gross Domestic Product
State GDP Like the national GDP, Oregon’s GDP is a measure of how much the state produces in goods and services.
Past Trends Since Central Point’s first economic element in 1980, Oregon’s economy has
transitioned from being a resource-based economy (traditionally timber, fishing, and agriculture)
to being a more mixed manufacturing and marketing economy (with an emphasis on high technology).78 At the same time, Oregon’s GDP has more than doubled, from $100.8 billion in
1997 to $212.6 billion in 2017. See Figure 7 for Oregon’s GDP increase.
Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017
75 Adam Nagourney and Matt Stevens, California Today: The State Faces Some Big Problems. Are We Ready? New York Times (Oct. 11, 2018), available at: www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/us/california-economy.html. 76 Oregon Small Business Association Foundation, Oregon #12 in nation’s Best State Economies, Oregon Business
Report (Oct. 15, 2018). 77 Id. 78 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book, available at:
sos.oregon.gov/blue-book/Pages/facts/economy-overview.aspx.
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Recent growth In the the last five years, Oregon’s has had slightly above average
economic growth in comparison to other states: its GDP has grown 1.7 percent, the 16th largest
increase in the country, ranking it 24th in the nation.79 Short-term projection Although there is the possibility that the state economy will continue booming, it is more likely that the state will experience a mild recession around 2020.
See Figure 8 for three likely scenarios for the state economy. The Oregon Economic and
Revenue Forecast of September 2018 anticipates that under the mild recession scenario, the
economy will contract by -1.8 percent in 2020 and -0.6 percent in 2021.80 Absent a recession, the state’s Real Gross State Product is projected to be the seventh fastest among all states across the country in terms of growth with gains averaging 2.5 percent through 2023.81
Figure 8: Short-Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon82
Long-term projection Even if there is a recession in the coming years, the economy
should recover and continue to do well into the long-term.
Conclusion Like the national economy, the state economy should remain healthy over the next year. However, there is a strong potential that a national recession will spill over into
Oregon, damaging the state economy and harming Oregon residents.
ii. Employment
Overview Oregon has more than two million people in its labor force.83 Through 2023, the
state economy’s total employment is expected to be the eighth strongest among all the states at a
rate of 1.3 percent.84
Past Trends Nearly every state industry was affected by the Great Recession but by May 2016,
79 Id. 80 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 16 (Sept 2018). 81 Id. at 21. 82 Id. 83 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book. 84 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 21 (Sept 2018).
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Oregon had more jobs than it had when the recession began.85 See Figure 9, which shows how
the state unemployment rate has changed depending on the national economic environment.
Figure 9: Oregon’s Unemployment Rate
Recent trends Currently, Oregon’s unemployment number is under what is historically
considered full employment for the state.86 However, for the last three years, the unemployment
rate has been extremely volatile; a few months of extreme declines have been followed by
months of huge increases.87 However, over the last year the Oregon unemployment rate has
stopped declining.88 Currently, it is hovering around 4 percent.
Short-term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the Oregon
unemployment rate will remain steady for the near future because this job growth rate now
matches population and labor force gains.89 However, if there is a severe recession in the near-
future, unemployment may spike up to 10 percent.90
Long-term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects a “slightly
stronger economic outlook” in 2025 and beyond.91 Compared to the rest of the country, Oregon’s
employment numbers should fare well. Total employment could be the eighth strongest in the
nation at 1.3 percent, while manufacturing employment could be the seventh fastest in the country at 1.1 percent.92
Conclusion Based on the economic reports created by the oregon Office of Economic
Analysis, the Oregon unemployment rate should remain steady for the near future. However,
depending on the strength of the anticipated 2020 slowdown, this could change dramatically. If
85 Id. 86 Id. at 10. 87 Id. 88 Id. 89 Id. 90 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 20 (Sept 2018). 91 Id. at 15. 92 Id. at 21.
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Oregon’s economy is lucky enough to avoid being harmed by the national economy, the
unemployment rate should continue to decrease to near-record levels.
iii. Industry Strengths
Another way to understand the state economy is to see how the state’s population is employed.
Figure 10 list the most common jobs in Oregon, as well as the normal wages. Location Quotient
(“LQ”) shows the relative strength of that occupation in Oregon’s economy. For example, if an
LQ is greater than one it indicates that the concentration is greater in Oregon than the national average. If it is less than one, it indicates that Oregon has a lower concentration than on average.
Figure 10: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 201693
Occupation title Employment Employment per 1,000 jobs LQ Median hourly wage Annual mean wage
All Occupations 1,790,940 1000 1 $18.26 $49,710
Office and Administrative Support 265,770 148.399 0.95 $16.96 $37,430
Sales and Related 181,760 101.488 0.98 $13.45 $37,980
Food Preparation and Serving
Related
170,710 95.32 1.03 $10.98 $25,190
Transportation and Material Moving 119,650 66.806 0.96 $15.73 $36,550
Production 113,230 63.226 0.97 $16.47 $37,460
Management 110,970 61.96 1.23 $42.91 $102,990
Education, Training, and Library 103,930 58.031 0.94 $23.01 $57,450
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 98,610 55.061 0.93 $38.16 $90,100
Business and Financial Operations 83,790 46.788 0.9 $29.96 $68,530
Construction and Extraction 72,580 40.526 1.02 $22.45 $50,820
Personal Care and Service 69,360 38.726 1.2 $11.98 $27,900
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 61,940 34.587 0.89 $21.21 $47,190
Retail Salespersons 61,610 34.402 1.07 $11.85 $28,890
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 55,400 30.931 0.98 $12.77 $29,350
Computer and Mathematical Occupations 50,900 28.419 0.96 $37.72 $82,190
Healthcare Support 48,130 26.877 0.93 $16.24 $35,110
Cashiers 45,730 25.535 1.01 $11.03 $24,640
Architecture and Engineering 40,820 22.795 1.28 $37.31 $86,810
Community and Social Service 35,930 20.061 1.39 $20.68 $46,490
Registered Nurses 35,220 19.667 0.97 $42.32 $87,000
Combined Food Preparation and
Serving Workers, Fast Food
34,950 19.518 0.8 $10.55 $22,930
Office Clerks, General 33,500 18.707 0.89 $15.90 $34,470
Waiters and Waitresses 33,100 18.48 1.01 $10.62 $26,240
Protective Service 32,740 18.283 0.76 $22.29 $50,010
93 Bureau of Labor and Statistics, May 2016 State Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates
Oregon, Department of Labor (May 2016), available at: www.bls.gov/oes/2016/may/oes_or.htm#00-0000.
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The state agency Business Oregon lists six target industries for the state economy: Forestry &
Wood Products, Advanced Manufacturing, High Technology, Food & Beverage Services,
Business Services, and Outdoor Gear & Apparel.94 Oregon continues to be a leader in forestry and agriculture. While the Oregon economy is much
more diverse than it was thirty years ago, forestry and agriculture still exhibit employment that is
concentrated at many times the national average. However, the timber industry is under pressure
from both the market and federal regulations, and so is projected to grow slowly.95 Oregon’s manufacturing industry is weighted towards semiconductors and wood products
relative to the nation, which mostly concentrates on autos and aerospace.96 Although
semiconductors and wood products have been historically strong, they are expected to grow
more slowly in the future.97 The state’s primary metal manufacturing is concentrated as a result of the continued operation of Oregon’s aluminum industry.
The computer and electronic product manufacturing industries are strong due to the presence of
Intel and Tektronix in the Portland area. Non-store retailers like Harry & David contribute to the
strength in that industry sector. Beverage manufacturing comes from the growing wine and craft beer industries in Oregon.
Professional and Technical Services is a fast-growing, emerging industry in Oregon.98 It includes
businesses who are using their expertise to help businesses around the world to grow.99
Management and technical consulting is the largest industry in this group, followed by engineering services and advertising, public relations, and related services.100 For example,
CH2M was founded in Corvallis and now employs over 26,000 employees worldwide.101
While Oregon is not known as a home for Fortune 500 companies, it does have Nike, a world-
leader in shoes and athletic apparel. The City of Portland is also the home of Columbia Sportswear, which specializes in the target industry of Outdoor Gear & Apparel.
The Office of Economic Analysis has ranked eleven industries as doing exceptionally well.
Private sector food manufacturing, education, and health care have never suffered strong losses
from a recession.102 Further, retail employment, wholesale, transportation, warehousing and utilities, and construction have surpassed their pre-recession levels and are at all time highs.103
94 Business Oregon, Business Oregon’s Target Industry Groups, available at: www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon-
Business/Industries/. 95 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at 17 (Nov. 2018). 96 Id. 97 Id. 98 Business Oregon, Business Oregon’s Target Industry Groups, available at www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon-Business/Industries/. 99 Id. 100 Id. 101 Id. 102 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 8 (Sep. 2018). 103 Id.
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State Economic Crosscurrents:
Primary Risks to Oregon’s Economy The state economy appears healthy: GDP is good,
unemployment is low, and Oregon’s industries are strong and growing. However, the state economy is at risk: the national economy could experience a small recession that could drag
down the state economy, trade wars threaten the state’s economic vitality, there is a housing
crisis, and wildfires and smoke are harming the tourism industry.
i. The National Economy Because of the potential for an economic slowdown around 2020, it is important to analyze the
impacts that the last national recessions had on the Oregon economy. In fact, Josh Lehner of the
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis forecasts that a future recession would be like the 1990s
recession,104 so it is important to review how that particular economic event effected the state economy.
The 1990s recession was relatively mild on the national economy.105 In the 1990s, Oregon “lost
just as many jobs as the US did.”106 However, many consumer service sectors and industries
actually outperformed the US economy.107 This included manufacturing, construction, services, and retail. Nevertheless, the data indicates that there were big manufacturing job losses, with less losses in the service sectors. 108 As a result, if there is a recession around 2020 and it appears to
be similar to the 1990s recession, Oregon should brace itself for losses in the manufacturing
industry, but for the industry to be able to hunker down and withstand a short economic storm.
ii. Trade Wars
Oregon is particularly susceptible to harm from a trade war because Oregon trades more with
foreign nations than most other states.109 As a result, should China and Canada retaliate against
US trade tariffs, Oregon’s economy could be dealt a particularly strong blow.110 According to economist Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, the impact of tariffs from China and Canada to Oregon’s economy could be about $870 million.111 It has the potential to
impact the state’s agriculture industry, aluminum scrap exporters, various consumer goods, and
distillery companies.112 If there is continued escalation and if global supply chains are disrupted,
“it will be a much bigger economic problem.”113
104 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26, 2018), available at:
oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/10/26/hammer-dont-hurt-em/. 105 Id. 106 Id. 107 Id. 108 Id. 109 Kathleen McLaughlin, Tariff hikes hit Oregon products, The Bend Bulletin (June 19, 2018), available at:
www.bendbulletin.com/business/6322636-151/tariff-hikes-from-china-canada-hit-oregon-products. 110 Id. 111 Id. 112 Id. 113 Id.
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iii. Housing Affordability
Oregon is in a housing crisis. Since Central Point adopted its first Economic Element in 1980,
housing prices in Oregon have risen by 315%, making it 4th in the nation for housing price increases.114 A major issue is that Oregon is not building enough housing units to keep pace with
the population increase. According to the Oregon Home Builders Association Oregon needs
25,000 new units every year, but only 15,000 are being constructed.115
Low housing supply has led to rising rental costs and home prices. This, plus a very low rental vacancy rate, have contributed to an affordable housing crisis across the state.116 According to
the National Low Income Housing Coalition, Oregon is the 3rd most unaffordable rental market
in the nation.117 Further, according to the Oregon Housing and Community Services Director
Margaret Van Vliet, the state has 130,000 extremely low-income households but only 20,000
housing units are affordable for those households.118 This crisis is straining the state economy because housing is a necessary expenditure. If 55
percent of renters in Oregon must pay more than 30 percent of their income to housing,119 then
Oregon consumers will have less purchasing power. Further, if there is not enough housing,
Oregon will have fewer workers and will be less able to entice target industries to relocate. iv. Wildfires and Smoke
Wildfires and smoke have been negatively impacting the Oregon economy.120 The last two years
have had record levels of unhealthy air. According to the Oregon Department of Forestry’s 2018 fire statistics 70,685 of the acres that it protects burned as of September 2018, which is 53
percent higher than the 10-year average.
A wildfire impact study released by Travel Oregon in July 2018 found that the state lost $51.5
million in visitor spending due to the 2017 wildfires.121 According to the study, Josephine County lost $680,000 and Jackson County lost $2.8 million in spending because of the fires. Those losses were mostly in the food service and accommodation industries.122 The smoke also
cost the Oregon Shakespeare Festival in Ashland about $2 million as a result of cancelling
outdoor performances.123
114 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon’s Housing Crisis, available at: habitatoregon.org/affiliates/oregons-housing-crisis/ 115 Id. 116 Vickie Aldous, Merkley: Oregon is in a housing crisis, Medford Mail Tribune (March 30, 2018), available at: mailtribune.com/news/top-stories/merkley-oregon-is-in-a-housing-crisis. 117 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon’s Housing Crisis. 118 Vickie Aldous, Merkley: Oregon is in a housing crisis. 119 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon’s Housing Crisis. 120 KATU Staff, Wildfires, smoke taking its toll on Oregon tourism, KATU (Aug. 14, 2018), available at:
katu.com/news/local/wildfires-smoke-taking-its-toll-on-oregon-tourism. 121 Saphara Harrel, The News-Review (Sep. 17, 2018), available at:
www.nrtoday.com/news/environment/wildfires/wildfires-impact-the-health-economy-of-southern-
oregon/article_f34eff89-4681-5da3-9714-ada8b91a8cd9.html. 122 Id. 123 Peter Libbey, Wildfire Smoke Disrupts Oregon Shakespeare Festival, New York Times (Aug. 24, 2018),
available at: www.nytimes.com/2018/08/24/theater/oregon-shakespeare-festival-wildfire-smoke.html.
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Section 4: Economic Trends in Southern Oregon
Overview Central Point is located in Jackson County and near Josephine County. Both
counties effect Central Point’s economy and are often treated as a single region for economic
data. Jackson County124 It has a population of 219,270 people as of May 2018,125 which accounts
for approximately 5 percent of Oregon’s population.126 Between 2000 and 2010, it experienced a
1.1 percent increase in population127 and a 5.26 percent increase in median household income,
from $44,028 to $46,343.128 Its median age is 42.9. Southern Oregon The Office of Economic Analysis has stated that Southern Oregon was hit
hard by the Great Recession and that the recovery has been more difficult than other parts of the
state.129 However, local job growth has returned, and poverty rates are falling. While Jackson
County has historic highs in wage growth and employment rates, Josephine County is still in a bad position, having yet to regain its losses from the last recession.130
i. Gross Domestic Product
Jackson County had the 103rd fastest growth in GDP between 2016 and 2017 among the nation’s 384 metropolitan areas (2.6 percent).131 This is compared to the U.S. metropolitan areas growing
by an average of 2.1 percent during the same time frame.132 The U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis has projected that the county had a GDP of $8,590,000,000 for 2017.133
Industries in Jackson County that boosted GDP growth were education and health services; professional and business services; trade; and transportation, warehousing, and utilities.134 See
Figure 11. Those industries that damaged GDP growth were other services and information.135
124 Officially labeled “Medford OR (MSA)” (the Medford, Oregon Metropolitan Statistical Area). 125 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents 8 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf
(PDF warning). 126 210,916/4,142.000 = 5.09% 127 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1
Documents 8 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf (PDF warning). 128 Medford, OR Metro Area, Data USA, available at: https://datausa.io/profile/geo/medford-or-metro-area/#intro. 129 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at 20 (Nov. 2018). 130 Id. 131 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017, QualityInfo (Sept. 27, 2018),
available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/medford-and-grants-pass-gdp-growth-outpace-u-s-average-in-2017. 132 Id. 133 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: www.bea.gov/system/files/2018-09/gdp_metro0918_0.pdf (PDF warning). 134 Id. 135 Id.
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Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County’s GDP136
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has projected that Josephine County had a GDP of
$2,478,000,000 for 2017.137 Incredibly, this ranked it 31st in the nation in terms of fastest growth
in GDP for 2017.138 During that time, the GDP grew at 4.3 percent.
Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County’s GDP139
In Josephine County, 40 percent of GDP growth came from finance, insurance, and real estate.140
136 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017. 137 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by
Metropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: www.bea.gov/system/files/2018-09/gdp_metro0918_0.pdf
(PDF warning). 138 Id. 139 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017. 140 Id.
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Other industries that are strong are trade, education and health services (like in Jackson County),
and leisure and hospitality. See Figure 12. Professional and business services, information, and
other services reduced the GDP.
Conclusion Southern Oregon’s economy is growing at a good pace. Both Jackson and
Josephine County are well ranked nationally in terms of the rate of economic growth. However,
they both have a long way to go to recover from the losses they suffered in the Great Recession.
ii. Employment
Recent Trends Southern Oregon was recently ranked in the top 30 job markets in the United
States based on job growth over the last five years.141 USA Today ranked the nearby City of
Medford as #28 in the nation, saying:
Medford is one of several rapidly growing cities in Oregon adding jobs at a faster pace
than almost anywhere else in the country. Due in large part to the metro area's education
and health services industry, there are over 13,000 more jobs in Medford today than there
were in 2013, a 15.4 percent increase.142
USA Today also said that Grants Pass had the largest drop in unemployment in the nation
between 2013 and 2018, ranking it as the 18th best job growth economy in the nation.143 Job
growth was driven by the education and health services industry, which added 1,700 out of the
5,000 new jobs.144
Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate
141 Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Report-Medford-Grants-Pass-Among-Top-US-Job-Markets-500405392.html. 142 Samuel Stebbins, 31 cities adding the most jobs as the US economy grows, USA Today (Nov. 12, 2018),
available at: www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/11/12/us-economy-grows-cities-adding-most-jobs/38319445/. 143 Id. 144 Id.
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Despite this new growth, Jackson County’s unemployment rate is still higher than the national
average.145 In fact, both Jackson and Josephine County had the highest unemployment rates out
of all the cities in the USA Today’s list of best local economies.146 However, when compared to other regions in Oregon, Jackson County has one of the lowest unemployment rates at 4.4 percent.147 See Figure 13. Neighboring Josephine County is at 5.5 percent while Klamath
County is at 5.8 percent.148
Conclusion The Southern Oregon economy is growing at a very good rate. While it still needs to catch up to the rest of the nation,149 if it is able to avoid being harmed too much by the next
economic slowdown, it should be able to make up its past losses.
iii. Housing
Overview For the last few years the local housing market has been booming. However, it
now appears to be slowing down. This is a major concern for the Southern Oregon economy
because it may inhibit construction of much-needed housing units and continue to drive up the
price of rent.
Recent trends Between 2000 and 2010, the total number of housing units in Jackson County
increased rapidly.150 Housing units increased by 20.1 percent, with 2,130 units in Central Point
alone (almost half of Medford’s growth of 5,000 units).151 In 2018 home prices in Jackson
County increased by an average of $12,000 in comparison to 2017, a slower rate than previous
years.152 Conclusion Southern Oregon is one of the last affordable housing areas in the West Coast.153
This could encourage Californians to relocate and contribute to the local economy.154 However,
new residents from wealthier states could encourage local builders to concentrate on constructing
expensive homes and not affordable housing. This could price out younger people, such as Millennials, and portions of the working class from the region.
145 Leah Thompson, Southern Oregon’s Unemployment Rates are Higher than Country’s Average, Newswatch 12
(Nov. 4, 2018), available at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Southern-Oregons-Unemployment-Rates-are-Higher-
than-Countrys-Average-499561461.html. 146 Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Report-Medford-Grants-Pass-Among-Top-US-Job-Markets-500405392.html. 147 Id. 148 Id. 149 Id. 150 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents 17 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf (PDF warning). 151 Matt Jordan, Housing market ‘softening’ in Jackson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at: kobi5.com/news/local-news/housing-market-softening-in-jackson-county-89532/. 152 Matt Jordan, Housing market ‘softening’ in Jackson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at
kobi5.com/news/local-news/housing-market-softening-in-jackson-county-89532/. 153 Greg Stiles, Housing prices will attract outsiders, Medford Mail Tribune (Oct. 15, 2018), available at: mailtribune.com/business/housing-prices-will-attract-outsiders. 154 Id.
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Section 5: The City of Central Point’s Trends
Introduction Central Point has unique economic and social trends when compared to the
Southern Oregon region. Its population is fast-growing, relatively young, and its workers
generally commute short distances to work. Measuring the City’s Trends
i. Commuting Patterns
Introduction The Department of Land Conservation & Development (DLCD) recommends analyzing commute patterns as one of the ways to determine land use needs.
Central Point exhibits a somewhat unique combination of commuting patterns. See Figure 14.
Typically, cities that have a low percentage of its residents working within the city also have relatively high commute times. But that is not the case for Central Point, which has only 21 percent of its residence working outside the city. Those residents have much shorter commute
times when compared to both the national and state averages for workers commuting outside
their cities. This is probably because a large amount of Central Point residents work in north
Medford. In many cases this is only a few blocks from where they live. Many may also work in White City, which can be accessed by roads with little congestion, such as Interstate 5 or Table
Rock Road.
Figure 14: Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns155
Worker Travel Information
(workers 16 years and over) Oregon
Jackson
County
Central
Point
Means of Transportation to Work Car, truck, or van 82.7% 86.5% 93.8%
Drove alone 72.0% 76.8% 86.0%
Carpooled 10.8% 9.7% 7.8%
Public transportation (excluding
taxicab) 4.2% 0.9% 1.5%156
Walked 3.9% 3.4% 2.0%
Bicycle 2.1% 1.4% 1.4%
Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means 1.0% 1.0% 0.2%
Worked at home 6.1% 6.7% 2.7%
Travel Time to Work
Less than 10 minutes 17.5% 20.6% 21.8%
10 to 14 minutes 16.9% 22.2% 29.7%
155 U.S. Bureau of the Census. 156 The number of residents using public transportation was listed as 0.0% in the data set. However, that is improbable. Other Census Bureau data lists it as 1.5% and so that is included here. See U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-
year Estimate, DataUSA (2016), available at: datausa.io/profile/geo/central-point-or/.
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15 to 19 minutes 16.5% 19.3% 24.7%
20 to 24 minutes 15.0% 15.2% 11.2%
25 to 29 minutes 5.9% 5.0% 3.4%
30 to 34 minutes 11.9% 8.8% 5.5%
35 to 44 minutes 5.4% 3.3% 1.8%
45 to 59 minutes 5.6% 2.9% 0.4%
60 or more minutes 5.3% 2.7% 1.6%
Mean travel time to work (minutes) 22.1 18.4 14.8
Place of Work
Worked in state of residence 97.8% 98.8% 99.5%
Worked in county of residence 77.5% 94.9% 97.7%
Worked outside county of residence 20.3% 3.9% 1.8%
Worked outside state of residence 2.2% 1.2% 0.5%
Living in a place 79.4% 74.3% 100.0%
Worked in place of residence 38.6% 37.8% 21.0%
Worked outside place of residence 40.8% 36.5% 79.0%
Not living in a place 20.6% 25.7% 0.0%
ii. Local Population Forecast
Introduction In addition to reviewing commuting patterns and economic trends, it is also important to review trends related to population growth. The DLCD recommends analyzing
population because it is one of the best means to determine Central Point’s future land
demand.157 While economic trends are subject to rapid changes without much warning,
population growth is much easier to predict.
This section contains a short analysis of population trends as of 2019. For a more comprehensive
analysis, see the Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039).
Past Trends Since Central Point published its first Economic Element, Jackson County’s total
population has grown from roughly 114,000 to 219,270 people.158 See Figure 15. The high growth rates of the 1970s were a result of relative economic prosperity while the decline in the 1980s was a result of challenging economic conditions.159 During the 1990s, the county’s growth
rates increased again at first but then declined later in the decade. Jackson County’s total
population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of just over 1 percent.
157 Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, Tips for Conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (March 2008). 158 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Coordinated Population Forecast: 2018 through 2068 (Jackson County) (June 2018) at 8-9. 159 Id.
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Figure 15: Jackson County―Total Population by Five-year Intervals (1975-2017)160
Central Point posted a growth rate higher than that of Jackson County, at 2.9 percent from 2000-
2010.161 That makes it the second fastest growing area in the Rogue Valley, just after Eagle
Point’s rate of 5.6 percent.162 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101 people,163 ranking behind Medford’s 82,566 people and just behind the City of Ashland’s 21,501 people.164
Reasons for Increase The county’s positive population growth has largely been the result of net
immigration.165 The aging population has led to an increase in deaths and local women have
postponed having children, which has resulted in birth stagnation. As a result, without immigration, Southern Oregon would be experiencing a “natural decrease” in population.
Long-term projections Jackson County is likely to grow at a fast pace in the short-term.166
The Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) forecasts that Jackson
County’s will grow from 219,270 people to 264,951 people by 2039.167 See Figure 16.
160 Id. at 10. 161 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf
(PDF warning). 162 Id. 163 See City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12. 164 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018
through 2068. Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf
(PDF warning)at 9. 165 Id. 166 Id. 167 City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13.
69
According to the Population Research Center at Portland State University, the City of Central
Point is expected to capture a much larger share of Jackson County’s future population than it
has in the past.168 Central Point is expected to have a short-term growth rate of 1.5 percent,169 and by 2039, Central Point will have 26,317 people, making it larger than the City of Ashland.170
This also means that approximately 7 percent of the county population will live in Central
Point.171
Figure 16: Population Growth Projections for City of Central Point and Jackson County172
Year Central Point Jackson County
2019 19,101 219,270
2020 19,714 235,066
2025 21,035 246,611
2030 22,920 257,256
2035 24,815 263,006
2039 26,317 264,951
Change: 2019 to 2039 7,216 45,681
Figure 17: Central Point Population Pyramid173
168 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018). 169 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13. 170 Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018)at 47. 171 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12. 172 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13, Table 1. 173 See City of Central Point Economic Element 2013-2033.
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The population pyramid for Central Point, see Figure 17, depicts the typical shape for a town
without a university. The “gap” in residents aged 20-24 exists in most non-university towns
because this is the age where young adults leave to attend college or obtain employment elsewhere. Although this data will be less valuable after the 2020 census, it still helps to predict
what types of services and land use Central Point needs to offer. The City’s population is less
top-heavy than either the nation or the county because fewer people aged 65 or older live in
Central Point. Although the Southern Oregon region experiences high levels of retirees
relocating to the area, this does not appear to be the case in Central Point. However, the ongoing Twin Creeks project may alter future data.
Because of the relative youth of the population, Central Point has a large percentage of families
with working-aged individuals aged 30-50 and their children under the age of 14. Proportionally,
this means that Central Point has higher levels of working-age individuals than the national population. This shows that Central Point has a strong labor base, and that there will continue to
be a strong demand for education services.
Conclusion Central Point must prepare to have its population grow by almost 38% over the
next 20 years. Should the population trends continue, the City must also be prepared to house a population younger than a typical non-university town.
iii. Regional Employment Forecast
Introduction The DLCD also recommends analyzing job growth forecasts as a means to determine a city’s future land use needs. 174
The employment forecast data used in this section was generated by the Research Division at the
Oregon Employment Department through 2027. This is the best region-specific data currently
available. The following analysis correlates to both population growth per the City of Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019) and the anticipated expansion of specific
occupations and industries. The subsequent conclusions assume that the forecasted rates of 2017-
2027 will remain constant through 2039.
Growth According to Guy Tauer, the Regional Economist for Jackson and Josephine counties, between 2017 and 2027, 14,111 new jobs will open in the “Rogue Valley region”175
due to population growth.176 In addition, there will be 148,807 job openings to replace workers
who leave the occupation or the workforce.177 A worker who leaves a job and then is hired to do
the same job at another establishment would not be counted as a replacement opening.178
174 Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, Tips for
Conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (March 2008). 175 Defined as Jackson and Josephine Counties. 176 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Occupation 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 9, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by-occupation-2017-2027. 177 Id. 178 Id.
71
Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, 2017-2027179
Service Industry The service industry had the largest share of total jobs in 2017. See Figure
18 for both industry-specific job openings and job growth. The service industry is also expected
to add the most new jobs in Jackson County and have the greatest number of total openings by 2027.180 This industry includes food preparation, personal care services, building maintenance,
ground keeping, and protective service occupations.181 This means that Central Point will need to
dedicate more lands to retail use.
Sales and Related Industries After the service industry, the greatest total openings will be in sales and related industries, such as office and administrative support―each with approximately
21,800 total openings.182 These have growth rates of 6.7 percent and 5.3 percent.183 This low
growth forecast is probably a result of labor-saving technologies like self-checkout stations,
automated inventory systems, and online retail sales.184 This means that Central Point will need to dedicate additional lands to office use.
Health Care The health care and social assistance industries currently account for
approximately one out of six jobs in the Rogue Valley.185 In fact, the area’s current employment
is concentrated in this industry with over 20,830 employees. Through 2027, health care is
179 Id. 180 Id. 181 Id. 182 Id. 183 Id. 184 Id. 185 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment Department (July 3, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by-industry-
2017-2027.
72
expected to have the most job openings―adding 3,780 new jobs.186 See Figure 20 for industry-
specific employment growth. This means that health care occupations will continue to grow by
approximately 17.7 percent.187 This is because a growing and aging population will demand
more health care services, which will in turn create more employment opportunities in this recession-resistant industry.188
Although health care in the Rogue Valley is mostly concentrated in Medford, given that it has
both Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center and Providence Medford Medical Center, Central
Point has begun to make inroads into the industry with the Providence Medical Plaza on North Pacific Highway. This indicates that Central Point may want to dedicate more land to office
space use in order to house more health care workers.
Construction Over the decade, construction is expected to have the fastest job growth
rate in the Rogue Valley, up by 25 percent. This is because housing construction, while still below pre-Great Recession levels, is picking back up.189 As a result, Central Point may need
more industrial-zoned land for construction shops, warehouses, machinery storage, and company
offices.
Professional & Management, Business, and Financial The two industries of Professional and Related services and Management, Business, and Financial services will both be growing at
a healthy rate. Professional and related occupations will have a growth rate of 10 percent. As a
result, Central Point will want to dedicate a good amount of its employment lands for office
space use.
186 Id. 187 Id. 188 Id. 189 Id.
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Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2017-2027190
Manufacturing and retail Manufacturing and retail trade are still expected to add jobs by
2027, just under 1,000 for both industries.191 See Figure 20 for industry employment changes.
However, the possibility of an economic slowdown in these sectors should be taken into consideration when allocating land.
Leisure and hospitality About one in eleven jobs in the Rogue Valley were in leisure and
hospitality in 2017.192 This tourism- reliant sector is forecast to add 1,930 jobs between 2017 and
2027.193 However, Central Point should consider the devastating effects that wildfires and smoke could have on the industry in the near-future.
190 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment
Department (July 3, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/-/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by-industry-
2017-2027. 191 Id. 192 Id. 193 Id.
74
Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2027194
Jackson and Josephine Counties
2017 2027 Change % Change
Total Employment 123,190 137,610 14,420 12%
Total payroll employment 116,030 129,390 13,360 12% Total private 101,750 114,290 12,540 12%
Natural resources and mining 3,600 4,430 830 23%
Mining and logging 550 570 20 4%
Construction 5,290 6,600 1,310 25%
Manufacturing 10,740 11,690 950 9% Durable goods 7,170 7,500 330 5%
Wood product manufacturing 2,610 2,670 60 2%
Trade, transportation, and utilities 25,020 26,430 1,410 6%
Wholesale trade 3,190 3,290 100 3%
Retail trade 18,110 19,090 980 5% Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 3,720 4,050 330 9%
Information 1,410 1,410 0 0%
Financial activities 5,310 5,630 320 6%
Professional and business services 9,290 10,650 1,360 15%
Private educational and health services 21,830 25,790 3,960 18% Private educational services 1,000 1,180 180 18%
Health care and social assistance 20,830 24,610 3,780 18%
Health care 18,480 21,710 3,230 17%
Leisure and hospitality 14,580 16,510 1,930 13%
Accommodation and food services 12,700 14,290 1,590 13% Other services and private households 4,680 5,150 470 10%
Government 14,280 15,100 820 6%
Federal government 2,010 2,180 170 8%
Federal government post office 450 450 0 0%
State government 2,750 2,910 160 6% Local government 9,520 10,010 490 5%
Local education 6,790 7,160 370 5%
Self-employment 7,160 8,220 1,060 15%
Using the total employment date in Figure 20, we know how many people each industry employed in 2017 and a projection for those figures through 2027. As a result, we can calculate
the annual job growth for the region per industry. Using the foregoing data, and assuming that
the rates remain constant, a sample jobs forecast for the Rogue Valley region can be calculated
through 2039, as seen in Figure 21.
194 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections data (June 26, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/92203/Rogue+Valley+Industry+Employment+Projections+2017-
2027?version=1.5 (Excel warning)
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Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast Jackson and Josephine Counties by Industry Sector
Number of jobs in
2017195
Forecasted number of
jobs in 2027196
Change in jobs 2017
through 2027197
Annual rate
of changes in jobs198
Total job growth forecast Southern
Oregon from 2019 to 2039199
Construction & Natural resources 8,890 11,030 2,140 214 4,280
Manufacturing
10,740
11,690 950
95
1,900
Transportation & Utilities
3,720
4,050 330
33
660
Wholesale Trade 3,190 3,290 100 10 200
Subtotal industrial jobs 26,540 30,060 3,520 352 7,040
Retail Trade
18,110
19,090 980
98
1,960
Financial 5,310 5,630 320 32 640 Services (professional,
business, health, private education, hospitality, information)
47,110
54,360 7,250
725
14,500
Subtotal Commercial/Services Jobs 70,530 79,080 8,550 855 17,100
Institutional/government
14,280
15,100 820
82 1,640
Other/uncovered Employment 11,840 13,370 1,530 153 3,060
Total Jobs 123,190 137,610 14,420 1,442 28,840 In total, if the job growth rates projected for 2017-2027 are maintained for the next two decades, Southern Oregon will grow by 28,840 jobs by 2039.
iv. Regional Competitiveness
Generally, employers make locational decisions based upon a region’s competitive position for their industry. They then choose between communities within that region based upon localized
factors. So, identifying industries in which the region can become competitive is an important
step in developing land use policies and strategies to capture economic development potential for
which Jackson County is well positioned.
195 See Figure 20 for data. 196 Id. 197 This is the number of jobs in 2027 (the second column) less the number of jobs in 2017 (the first column). 198 This if the forecasted change in jobs 2017 through 2027 (the third column) divided by 10 years. 199 This is the forecasted annual rate of changes in jobs (the fourth column) multiplied by 20 years (2019 to 2039).
Because it uses rate of change, it does not need to include the 2017-2018 numbers.
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Figure 22: Jackson County Shift-Share Analysis 2010-2017200
LQ
U.S. Growth rate201
Region Shift202
Major Industry 2010 2017 Percent Net Percent Net
Farm Employment 1.63 1.48 13.44 365 -10.3 -280
Forestry, Fishing, and Related 3.95 4.02 13.44 286 1 21
Mining 0.32 0.53 13.44 35 74.74 194
Construction 1 1.05 13.44 742 4.9 271
Manufacturing 0.9 1.08 13.44 924 20.57 1,414
Retail Trade 1.4 1.39 13.44 2,079 -1.45 -225
Transportation and
Warehousing 0.91 0.82 13.44 424 -14.78 -466
Information 1.09 0.79 13.44 298 -29.55 -655
Finance and Insurance 0.71 0.65 13.44 553 -10.72 -441
Real Estate and Rental and
Leasing 1.19 1.16 13.44 773 -3.52 -203
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 0.71 0.71 13.44 712 -1.82 -96
Management of Companies and
Enterprises 1.36 0.74 13.44 233 -60.57 -1,051
Administrative and Waste
Services 0.83 0.77 13.44 729 -9.23 -501
Educational Services 0.55 0.6 13.44 190 10.04 142
Health Care and Social Assistance 1.28 1.31 13.44 2,064 2.11 324
Arts, Entertainment, and
Recreation 1.37 1.34 13.44 441 -3.53 -116
Accommodation and Food
Services 1.08 1.16 13.44 1,097 8.11 662
Other Services (except Public Administration) 0.98 0.98 13.44 810 -0.54 -32
Federal Civilian 0.93 0.98 13.44 239 4.74 85
Military 0.43 0.43 13.44 77 -0.76 -4
State Government 0.59 0.29 13.44 265 -51.42 -1,016
Local Government 0.78 0.86 13.44 940 8.99 629
Other/Suppressed Industries203 0.69 0.69 13.44 384 0.07 2
Total Employment 1 1 13.44 14,662 -1.23 -1,343
200 Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP), Shift-Share Analysis of Employment Growth
Jackson County, 2010-2017 (data analyzed Nov. 15, 2018), available at: oregon.reaproject.org/analysis/shift-share/tools/410029/2010/2017/. 201 The change in local employment that would have occurred for a specific industry had it grown at the national
growth rate of all industries combined. 202 The additional gain (or loss) in local employment for a specific industry beyond the national growth and industry
mix effects resulting from the industry growing faster (or slower) than the same industry nationally. This does not
represent actual jobs lost but jobs that could have been created had the region kept up with the national growth rate. 203 The "Other/Suppressed Industries" category portrayed in this table represents a combined total of those industries for which data were unavailable due to confidentiality restrictions. Those industries that are combined include:
Utilities; Wholesale Trade.
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See Figure 22 for how specific industries are doing in the Rogue Valley as compared to the
national average. The shift-share column measures the degree to which an industry sector has
outperformed the nation within that industry’s employment levels during a specified time period. If the regional growth in an industry outpaced the change in the national share then there would
be a positive shift share. A positive shift share could even be depicted where the nation loses
absolute employment versus the regional share. For example, if manufacturing employment
decreased during the period analyzed but the regional economy held a constant manufacturing
employment base during the period this would result in a positive shift-share.
If an industry sector has out-performed in a shift share analysis and the concentration within that
industry also exceeds national averages in a Location Quotient (LQ) analysis, then those
industries are likely to be ones for which the region has exhibited durable comparative
advantages.
Between 2010 and 2017, the region outperformed the nation in nine industries. Of these, mining,
manufacturing, educational services, and accommodation and food services outperformed the
nation by at least eight percent. Mining had the highest percent gain in employment relative to
the nation during the period, however given how little mining industry the area had previously, this comes out to a gain of only 194 new jobs. The second strongest shift came from
manufacturing at 20.5 percent and with 1,414 new jobs.
There are three industries that the region is lagging in significantly: management of Companies
and Enterprises, Information, and State Government. Management of Companies and Enterprises is a classification that involves employment in companies that run other types of smaller
companies. Although the previous Economic Element indicated that the region was substantially
ahead of the national curve (at 55 percent shift), the region is now significantly behind the
national curve (at negative 60.57 shift). This makes sense given the somewhat remote location of
the region from a major city and the levels of expertise that would typically be required in this type of industry.
The Information industry includes publishing, software, broadcast, and internet industries. It is
unclear why the region is behind by almost 30 percent; however, it may have to do with the
Southern Oregon region lacking a research university, which would attract younger information professionals. The relative proximity of Silicon Valley (less than 400 miles away) probably
contributes to a brain-drain of these young workers. The lack of growth in State Government
jobs makes sense because most of the Oregon governmental offices are in the state capital,
Salem, or other parts of the Willamette Valley.
v. Economic Development Context
In addition to measuring economic data, Statewide Planning Goal 9 encourages cities to consider
traits in their local economies that have yet to be numerically qualified. These traits are evaluated
below through an analysis of Central Point’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
78
Figure 23: Central Point’s Qualitative Trends204
Trait Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Location, size, and buying
power of markets
Relatively low
percentage of large retail compared to population.
National exposure with specialty food industry.
Relatively low per-
household income.
If relative wages can
be increased, Central Point can capitalize
on expanding population.
Failure to capture proportional growth
over time, especially in specialty foods.
Economic development
efforts and programs
Direct communication and collaboration
between City staff and local businesses.
Few large employers
within city limits the role of the City in setting the
policy and agenda for regional economic
development.
If City can add a few
large employers in a particular sector, the
City will be able to drive regional policy
in that area.
Capitalizing on this
opportunity will require
a coordinated strategy.
Transportation
facilities
City has good freeway
and airport access.
Central Point's I-5 interchange (Exit 33) is
an old design with limited capacity.
Expansion of Exit 35
would add an additional freeway
interchange and opportunities for key
industries to locate there.
Growth around Exit 35 needs to help economic
development without threatening the function
of the interchange.
Public
facilities and services
City has practical
approach to its public facility needs and
requirements.
City's water is supplied
by the Medford Water Commission and sewage
treatment is provided by
the Regional Water Reclamation Facility operated by the City of
Medford under long-term agreements.
City needs to ensure that it continues to
have adequate capacity to serve
future employment demands.
Maintaining a good
relationship with the City of Medford and the
Medford Water
Commission is important to avoid future service disputes
or too large an increase in rates.
Workforce
development
City's workforce has access to Rogue Community College
(RCC), Southern Oregon University (SOU), the Job Council, and other
training programs.
Regionally, there are few
post-graduate degree opportunities, no
research university, and no proactive regional
programs to encourage college graduates to
locate to the area. High school drop-outs have
limited employability.
Advocate for training and programs that
directly benefit Central Point
employers. Support local schools to
minimize high school drop-out rates.
High school drop outs
have limited employability and
demand disproportionate
services.
Regulatory
barriers
The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional
Problem-Solving Plan ("RPS") should
encourage growth in the Tolo area and Central
Point could capitalize on the advantages present.
The RPS may require additional planning work.
Capitalize on the
opportunity for targeted employment growth in the Tolo
area.
Delays in making the
Tolo area market ready.
204 See City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 (2013).
79
vi. Competitive Position Summary
When all the regional and localized factors are synthesized, there appear to be at least four target
industry sectors where the City of Central Point may exhibit a strong and durable competitive position. These are the same industries identified in the 2013 Economic Element, but the
conclusions therein were accurate.
• The specialty foods cluster that includes Lillie Belle Farms chocolates, Rogue Creamery, and the nearby Seven Oaks Farm just outside Central Point’s municipal boundary represents a small but unique opportunity for growth.
• Truck transportation and related support industries pay high wages to City residents and is a sector that both the Region and the City are well positioned to serve.
• Planned population growth in Central Point in the regional plan is expected to support
expanded retail commercial within the City as the buying power of the City’s residential
base expands.
• Planned population growth is also likely to support expanded healthcare services in the
City. Overall, this sector is expected to grow rapidly within the region as exemplified by
the Providence Medical Group building on Front Street. Although existing investments in Medford hospitals are likely to concentrate much of the regional growth, Central Point has an opportunity to keep pace with the growth in this sector.
Central Point also has some unique spatial characteristics that may support future economic
activities in two other sectors due to the Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Problem-Solving Plan (“RPS”). Specifically, there are aggregate employment uses and Erickson Air Crane that are
located within the Tolo Urban Reserve Areas. These are both employer types with special needs,
but the areas inclusion in the RPS Plan may present opportunities to work with these employers
for mutual benefit.
vii. Assessment of Central Point’s Economic Development Potential
The DLCD’s Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook recommends assessing
the City’s economic potential based on several factors. See Figure 24 for subjective scoring on
each of Central Point’s competitive market advantages and disadvantages.
Central Point is located well in relation to markets and key transportation facilities. It is situated
halfway between two major cities, Portland and San Francisco, is located on Interstate 5, and has
ready access to the Rogue Valley International Airport. The drawbacks are that it is not located
close to a major metro area and most flights from the airport require connecting flights at a major hub.
Central Point has excellent public facilities like water and sewer. There are rarely any service
disruptions.
80
Central Point has fair access to labor markets. Its relative isolation from a major population
center does increase costs and decreases its ready access. The same is true with materials and
energy, aside from some natural resources like timber.
Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential
Location relative to markets 3
Availability of key transportation facilities 3
Key public facilities (water, sewer, etc.) 4
Labor Market (cost and access) 2
Materials and energy (availability and cost) 2
Necessary support services 3
Pollution control issues 3
Education and technical training 2
Other (such as land availability) 3
Total 25
Scores: 1= poor, 2 = fair, 3 = good, 4 = excellent
Central Point has good access to necessary support services. What businesses cannot get internally or in near-by Medford, they can get at a nearby major city like Portland, or probably
find online.
Central Point has few pollution control issues, although the wildfire smoke in the summer
months does harm to the local economy and industries like tourism.
The City has fair access to education and technical training. The area hosts both Rogue
Community College (RCC) and Southern Oregon University (SOU). Other than that, most
students must travel either to the Oregon Institute of Technology in nearby Klamath Falls, to a
state school like the University of Oregon and Oregon State University in the Willamette Valley, or out of state altogether.
Lastly, Central Point has good access to other market advantages, such as a ready supply of land
in the Rogue Valley and surrounding communities.
viii. Central Point’s Projected Job Growth
Next, a forecast for Central Point’s future job growth needs to be calculated. This is key to
determining how much land is needed per industry category in Central Point through 2039. The
following analysis is based on Central Point’s population compared to the regional population. That population percentage is then applied to the regional job forecast. For example, given that
the population of Jackson County in 2018 was 219,270205 and the population of Josephine
205 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018 through 2068 47 (June 30, 2018), available at:
www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report_Final.pdf (PDF warning).
81
County is approximately 87,487,206 and Central Point has 19,101 people,207 the City of Central
Point currently has approximately 6.22 percent of the regional population. As a result, we can
assume that Central Point will capture approximately 6.22 percent of jobs created regionally in
2019.208 Over the next 20 years, Central Point will need to house approximately 7,216 additional residents.209 This means that by 2039, Central Point will have approximately 7.06 percent of the
local population and should capture a corresponding amount of new jobs. See Figure 25. As a
result, over the next 20 years, Central Point should capture an average of 6.64 percent of new
jobs.
Figure 25: Central Point’s population growth rate
City/County
Estimated
2019
Forecasted
2039
Average
population
share 2019-2039210
Jackson County’s population211 219,270 264,951
Central Point’s population212 19,101 26,317
Josephine County’s population213 87,487 107,470
Total Population of both Counties214 306,757 372,421
Central Point’s population as a percentage
of Southern Oregon’s population 6.22% 7.06%
6.64%
Using the data in Figure 25, we can apply Central Point’s projected population rates to forecast the number of jobs that Central Point will likely gain in each industry over the next 20 years. See
Figure 26 for the forecasted job numbers.
206 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Josephine County Coordinated Population Forecast 2015 through 2065 33 (June 2015), available at:
www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Josephine_Forecast_Report_201506.pdf (PDF warning). 207 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018
through 2068. 208 Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population, not that it has an equal percentage of total jobs now existing. 209 That is Central Point’s forecasted 2039 population less the estimated 2018 population from Figure 25 (26,317 –
19,101 = 7,216). 210 That is Central Point’s 2018 population (as a percentage of the region’s population) added to Central Point’s
2039 population (as a percentage of the region’s population) averaged ((6.22% + 7.06%) /2). 211 Id. 212 City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 (2013) at 13. 213 City of Grants Pass, Comprehensive Plan: Population Element (2014), at 15. 214 That is Jackson County’s population added to Josephine County’s population.
82
Figure 26: Central Point's 20-year job forecast by industry
Southern
Oregon’s 20-year
job forecast215
Central Point’s forecasted
annual job growth at 6.64%
of regional forecast216
Construction & Natural resources 4,280 284
Manufacturing 1,900 126
Transportation & Utilities 660 44
Wholesale Trade 200 13
Subtotal industrial jobs 7,040 467
Retail Trade 1,960 130
Financial 640 42
Services (professional, business,
health, private education, hospitality, information) 14,500
963
Subtotal Commercial/Services Jobs 17,100 1135
Institutional/government 1,640 109
Other/uncovered Employment 3,060 203
Total New Jobs 28,840 1915
Based on the foregoing data, Central Point will need enough employment lands over the next 20
years for approximately 1915 new jobs.
215 See Figure 21 for complete data. 216 That is Southern Oregon’s 20-year job forecast from Figure 21 multiplied by 6.23%, rounded to the nearest
whole number.
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Section 6: Land Demand
Introduction This section projects the City of Central Point’s short term (2019-2024) and long-
term (2019-2039) supply of land needed to satisfy employment projections.
Having reviewed economic trends on a national, state, regional, and local level, it is important to use that information to identify economic development opportunities that are likely to expand or
locate in or near Central Point within the next twenty years. Understanding the types of sites
needed will enable the City to successfully implement its economic development objectives.
Legal Requirements Central Point must have adequate supplies of land to meet employment needs for a range of employment opportunities. These lands must be adequate to capitalize on the
City’s economic opportunities in terms of both quantity and type.
Central Point is required to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand within the city’s urban growth boundary. OAR 660-009-0015. A use or category of use will be reasonably expected to expand or locate to
Central Point if it possesses the appropriate locational factors for the use or category of use.
Economic Growth Rate Forecast
It is expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a
whole across all industries over the next twenty years and may reasonably be expected to exceed
regional growth rates in target industries. Central Point’s population is projected to grow at 1.5%
through 2039, see Figure 17 supra.
However, consistent with the City’s competitive positions described above there are at least three
sectors where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out-
perform the overall regional growth. Those sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking
and warehousing and retail. It is in these three industry sectors that the State’s regional forecast is appropriately adjusted upward to reflect localized opportunities.
i. Specialty Food Manufacturing
This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth assumptions in the manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this
niche sector but may buoy a slight edge over regional growth rates. However, exceptional growth
in this sector is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in
the future materializes, then that may warrant a re-evaluation of the overall manufacturing
employment growth forecast in the Economic Element.
ii. Trucking and Warehousing
The trucking and warehousing industry is strong regionally with higher than average
employment concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much
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higher than regional or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents
an excellent opportunity to expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relatively high
wages. Also, this industry has potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry that
creates the potential to outpace overall regional growth to a modest degree.
Central Point is also uniquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regional
comparative advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan
contemplates that the “Tolo” area is well situated for this type of economic activity north of
Interchange 35 which already serves industrial traffic to White City and aggregate resource traffic in the area. There is very little residential and commercial development around the
interchange. No new residential development is contemplated in the regional plan, so this area is
well positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded transportation and warehousing
uses.
However, the Tolo area is constrained because of a relative lack of water service. Any attempt to
take advantage of this area would require a large investment to increase water and provide other
necessary utilities.
iii. Retail
Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point. Retail trade and associated
employment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth is
essentially consumer growth. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that retail trade in Central Point
will outpace the two-county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average population growth as set out in the County’s coordinated population forecast for the City. From an industry
categorization versus land use perspective there are some small but important differences. Land
use terminology included within the retail category includes restaurants and bars while
restaurants are categorized in the leisure and hostility industry sectors, so growth in this sector is
appropriately consistent with the retail uses in both categorization schemes such as a boutique.
iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry
Figure 27 depicts a reasonable 10-year planned growth rate by industry for the City of Central
Point. This growth rate utilizes the state’s regional forecast for all industries through 2027.
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Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry217
Industry Sector
State %
Change 2017-2027
Central Point %
Change 2017-2027
Total Private 12.9% 12.0%
Natural resources and mining 11.1% 23.0%
Construction 17.5% 25.0%
Manufacturing 6.7% 9.0%
Trade, transportation, and
utilities 10.5% 6.0%
Wholesale trade 8.1% 3.0%
Retail trade 9.4% 5.0%
Transportation,
warehousing, and utilities 17.3% 9.0%
Leisure and hospitality 13.1% 13.0%
Professional and business services 17.0% 15.0%
Financial activities 4.9% 6.0%
Other services 10.6% 10.0%
Information 10.2% 0.0%
This is the best and most recent data available for regional industry growth projections over the
long-term. This economic element assumes that the rates will remain constant through 2039.
i. Site Requirements Analysis
Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. The Economic Element and Buildable Land
Inventory essentially breaks the City’s employment land inventory by employment category.
Within these general development pattern types, the Economic Element analyzes demand and
supply of large, medium and small sites. In practice, there are no discrete size breaks that differentiate between large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze different sizes
because the site requirements do vary with firm size. Figure 28 describes the qualitative site
requirements for each of the general development pattern.
217 The data in the middle column is from the Gail Kiles Krumenauer, Senior Economic Analyst at the Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Employment Industry Projections 2017-2027 (June 26, 2018), available at: www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/92203/Oregon+Industry+Employment+Projections+2017-2027?version=1.7
(Excel Warning). The data in the right column is from Guy Tauer, Regional Economist at the Oregon Employment Department, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections 2017-2027, available at: www.qualityinfo.org/documents/10182/92203/Rogue+Valley+Industry+Employment+Projections+2017-
2027?version=1.5 (Excel Warning).
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Figure 28: General Development Pattern Site Requirements
Type Public Facility and Service Requirements
Transportation
Facility Requirements; Access to customers and workforce
Size Cat./
Typical Site Size (acres)
Discussion of Site Requirements by Size Category Retail Commercial Retail commercial uses typically
require all urban facilities and
services such as water, sewer, storm
drainage, police and fire protection,
electricity, natural gas, and modern
communications systems
Retail commercial development requires premium access and
excellent visibility for customer attraction. Foot traffic and access
to public transportation can also be important.
Large/ 8-30 Large commercial sites tend to cluster within larger blocks of commercial that can be 100 acres or more. Outdoor
storage sales can demand very large sites. These users will
anchor commercial areas and attract customers for medium and small users. Must be located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and state highways.
Med./
2-7 Medium commercial uses can locate within larger blocks of commercial or may function as a stand-alone community
commercial use. Must be located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and collectors if not stat highways
Small/
0.5-2 Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by medium and large retail commercial. These tend to be
specialty sales that serve niche retail markets. Office Office uses typically
require all urban facilities and
services such as water, sewer, storm
drainage, police and fire protection,
electricity, natural gas, and modern
communications systems
Consumer driven office users like branch banks &
insurance sales must have good visibility
and access. Other
office uses only need reasonably direct access to the regional
transportation network. Airport
access can be essential
Large/ 3.5-12 Large office uses will require excellent access to the regional transportation network because they have large
workforces that require capacity in the system. Large office uses can locate in commercial or industrial areas depending
on the specific requirements of the enterprise.
Med./ 1-3.5 Medium office uses that require customer significant access will seek out and compete for commercial zoned space.
Other medium office uses may demand business park space intermixed with light industrial uses.
Small/
0.25-1 Small office uses are the uses that “fill in” commercial and industrial areas because their needs are the most varied and requirements the most flexible Industrial Industrial uses may
or may not require all urban services.
However, many industrial uses will
have very specific and large demands
for certain services like power or
sewage capacity
Access for freight is a
top priority and may
be via truck and/or rail. Industrial uses sometimes accept
more remote locations to avoid congestion and that support
freight movements. Airport access is often important.
Large/
15-300 Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on
regional, national or internal scales. Factors that affect
demand depends on the very specific requirements of the enterprise that are difficult to predict a priori.
Med/
3-14 Medium industrial uses tend to be price sensitive and seek
out space within business or office parks. They sometimes require property ownership that will also result in low real
estate overhead in relation to the enterprise.
Small/ 0.5-2.5 Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is a priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight
movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites themselves.
ii. Target Industries’ Unique Site Requirements
In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the site requirements specific to Central Point’s target industries warrant more detailed consideration.
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Specialty Food Products Manufacturing
The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in specialty food product manufacturing in
Central Point have small retail storefronts that accompany their manufacturing businesses. The sites are generally small and there is limited room to expand operations on the existing sites. The
segment of Highway 99 where these uses are located have good access to I-5. From there they
have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99. However, the narrow strip between Highway
99 and the railroad tracks creates a practical limit on expansion. Central Point should keep lines
of communication open with these businesses to assure that the site requirements for any expansion are well understood by staff and policy makers.
Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Services
These businesses require both office space and trucking facilities that are often co-located. Site requirements may also include space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver
accommodations and inter-modal freight handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is
typically required. Adequate expansion area is often a factor when selecting a site so that
expansion can be accommodated without the need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate
freeway is essential and must be located in areas that are relatively free from congestion to enable efficient freight movements. Aside from transportation facilities, power, and modern
communications, some transportation uses may not necessarily require the full complement of
other urban facilities and services.
Retail Trade
Convenient access to I-5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements from I-5 in Central
Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and may raise site
requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street arterial is good and
access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts regional shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and medium retailers cannot be met. The
anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and medium
retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor.
Long-Term Land Demand Estimate
This section calculates Central Point’s land demand estimate for the next 20 years. Figure 21
above provides the total number of jobs forecasted to be created in Southern Oregon through
2039. Figure 25 calculates that Central Point should capture approximately 6.23 percent of these
new jobs. Figure 26 calculates that this equals approximately 1,915 new jobs for Central Point and allocates them by industry.
Employment land demand estimates can be projected using a variety of techniques, but this
Economic Element calculates the land needs by converting the projected population growth rates
into projected employees and then using average employee space needs and floor area ratios to project future land needs. See Figure 32 for the estimate of employee density per acre. Then
these land needs must be aggregated by the development pattern type demanded by each industry
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so that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply calculations.
Each of these steps requires assumptions about expected ratios and land development
efficiencies.
iii. Estimate of Redevelopment
In order to estimate the number of acres needed by 2039 for all of Central Point’s industries, this
section uses an employee per acre ratio. According to the DLCD’s Industrial & Other
Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, there are typically 8-12 industrial sector jobs per acre, 14-20 commercial and service sector jobs per acre, 6-10 institutional and government jobs per
acre, and 6-10 other employment sector jobs per acre.218 This analysis assumes that Central Point
will need to allocate fewer jobs per acre than average.
Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039 Number of
Jobs219
Acres/Job
DLCD220
Acres
Needed221
Total Net
Buildable Acres222
Acreage
Surplus/ Shortage 2017 Jobs223 • Industrial 1,6501 8
• Commercial/Service 4,387 14
• Institutional/Gov’t 888 6
• Other 736 6
TOTAL: 7,662
Jobs added by 2039224 • Industrial 467 8 54.87 86.77 28.395
• Commercial/Service 1,1355 14 76.07 59.9 (21.1714)
• Institutional/Gov’t 109 6 17 0 (18.1667)
• Other 203 6 31.83 0 (33.8333)
TOTAL: 1,914 (44.776)
Figure 32 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD’s employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the
City. As a result, Central Point will need 44.7 new acres in the aggregate by 2039. However,
Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial,
institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add approximately 73 acres of commercial, institutional, and other land types of lands by 2039.225
218 DLCD’s Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46. 219 See Figure 26. 220 DLCD’s Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46. 221 That is, the number of jobs divided by the Acres/Job DLCD. 222 These buildable acres currently exist in the City’s inventory. See City of Central Point Employment Buildable
Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039, at 6, Tables 3-4. 223 That is, Figure 21’s Number of jobs in 2017 multiplied by 6.22% (Central Point’s population as a percent of Southern Oregon’s population). 224 See Figure 26 for data. 225 That is, (21.1714) + (18.1667) + (33.8333) = (73.1714).
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Another way to estimate the land demand is to compare the above result to the conclusions
reached in other parts of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. For example, Central Point’s
Land Use Element 2013-2033 found that the City would need between 59 and 67 acres by
2033. It is reasonable that between 2033 and 2039, Central Point would need 6 additional acres. The previous element also estimated that Central Point needs approximately 13 acres of
employment lands per 1,000 residents.226 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101
people227 and the 2039 population is projected to be around 26,317.228 This increase of
approximately 7,216 residents means that Central Point would need a total of 93.8 additional
acres for employment purposes in the long-term.229 But, because there is a surplus of approximately 23 Industrial site acres, Central Point actually needs 65 acres.230
Conclusion In conclusion, based on Central Point’s projected job capture rate, the
Comprehensive Plan’s previous calculations, and the estimated ratio of residents to land use
needs, Central Point has a forecasted demand of 65 to 73 additional acres for employment purposes for the 2019 to 2039 planning period.
Short-Term Land Demand Estimate
By quartering the numbers from the long-term estimate, the short-term land employment use needs can be determined. As a result, Central Point will need anywhere between 16 and 18
additional acres for the next five years (2019-2024).
Inventory of Employment Lands
After identifying economic opportunities and estimating land demand, the next step in the Goal 9
process is to evaluate the current land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which there is
a projected demand over the next twenty years. Central Point updates its general buildable lands
information on a regular basis and this information has been used as the starting point to analyze
the land base from a more specific Goal 9 perspective.
The Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 has been published by the
City of Central Point as a separate document. The above-conclusion that Central Point needs
65 to 73 additional acres by 2039 considers the findings of the BLI, including that there is a
slight surplus of industrial lands.
i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency
The City of Central Point’s current built employment land base has relatively limited
redevelopment potential. According to the BLI, the City only has 8.95 acres of total commercial lands and 36.18 acres of industrial lands that are redevelopable.231 Further, these lots likely
226 Central Point Land Use Element 2018 at 27. 227 Id. at 9. 228 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region
47 Documents (May 2018). 229 That is, (((26,707-19,101)/1000)*13 acres) 230 That is, 93.8 acres – 28.395. 231 Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 6, Tables 3 and 4.
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consist of one- and two-story buildings.232 This configuration does not lend itself well to
redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the supply and demand for sites over a
twenty-year period because this would require the demolition and aggregation of parcels. While
this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is unlikely to be economically viable in Central Point on a scale that would alter long-term supply and demand projections for
employment lands. This quantitative determination does not mean that there are not good
qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along Highway 99.
There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along Table Rock Road.233 Several parcels are zoned residential and that are large enough to be be developed for employment uses. Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is an area where relatively
inexpensive small industrial sites are available to own and where there are limited development
requirements that add overhead. In some ways, this area is important employment land for
certain types of firms that have ever fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost-effective. As such, aggressive redevelopment planning policies for this area may seem to be a great aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and unintended economic consequences.
Moreover, without relatively massive financial incentives for significant redevelopment that
would change the overall quality of development in this area, lesser redevelopment policies tend
to have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development projects that would trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties.
ii. Vacant Lands
According to the BLI, most of the City’s vacant acreage consists of Medium Industrial lands, as well as Large and Medium Retail.234 The City has barely any vacant acreage allocated to office
use of any kind. It also has little acreage dedicated to small retail. However, according the
analysis in this Economic Element, Central Point’s economy will likely have its strongest growth
in industries that require retail and office space. As a result, the City needs to increase its
buildable lands in these categories.
Further, according to the BLI, most of the vacant number of lots are in small retail (even though
there is little total acreage).235 Further, there are few vacant lots of any kind for offices, large
retail, and large industrial.236 As a result, the City will need more parcels for offices of every size
and for large industrial and large retail.
iii. Conclusion
The City does not have enough employment lands to meet the projected economic needs over the
next 20 years. Population growth and job forecasts indicate that the City will need more lands for Commercial/Service, Institutional/Government, and Other employment types. The BLI also
indicates that the City does not have enough large retail parcels.
232 Given that few buildings in the City are taller than two stories. 233 See Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 13. 234 Id. at 7, Figure 3. 235 Id. 236 Id.
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Section 7: Goals, Conclusions, and Policies
This section sets forth the conclusions from the foregoing analysis as well as the City of Central
Point’s economic development goals and policies. The goals and policies in this section are
similar to those adopted by the previous Economic Element (2013). Statewide Planning Goal 9 requires that comprehensive plans and policies contribute to a stable
and healthy economy in all regions of the state.
Goal: General Economic Development
1. To actively promote a strong, diversified, and sustainable local economy, that reinforces
Central Point’s “small town feel”237 and family orientation while preserving or enhancing
the quality of life in the community as a place to live, work, and play. Because this Economic Element concludes that there will be economic
uncertainty in the short-term, it is important that Central Point work to diversify
and strengthen its economy. By continuing to analyze economic trends, Central
Point will be able to continue growing strong over the next couple decades.
2. To create incentives to encourage and support economic development;
Central Point has historically been a bedroom community where people live but
work elsewhere. In order to maintain a strong tax base and to ensure continued economic prosperity, Central Point must take an active role in encouraging
development. Passive practices will not lead to economic prosperity and could
endanger the City’s future.
3. To encourage and promote the development or enhancement of retail and office areas to achieve a vibrant shopping, entertainment, living and working experience in the
downtown area.
This goal is important because Central Point needs a vibrant downtown in order to
ensure future economic prosperity. Further, based on the current BLI and the projected land use needs, Central Point is going to need more space for these
types of activities in the future.
4. To encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, and state
agencies, and local businesses concerning economic development, education, and workforce development.
237 As defined in the Urbanization Element of the Comprehensive Plan
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The City cannot reach its goals without the assistance of others. As a result, the
City needs to be receptive to suggestions and aid from others and also needs to be
active in communicating its needs and plans.
5. To encourage and support growth, particularly in the targeted industries (retail, specialty
food manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors).
These targeted industries are where the City could make strides. It is important
that the City help maintain and grow these industries now and in the future.
6. To maintain at all times an adequate supply of suitable short-term (five-year)
employment lands.
According to the BLI, Central Point does not have an adequate short-term supply of lands for institutional/government and other employment types. As a result, the
City should plan to add to the land supply in the near future.
7. To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual
identifying and monitoring economic development strategies and programs available to the City.
Through the development of its Economic Element, the City of Central Point has reached the
following conclusions and policies relative to the above cited general economic goals:
1. Central Point concludes that the economy will change with time. As a result, the City
must be prepared for economic fluctuations (including down-turns) in both the short- and
long-term, which could seriously impact the land use planning forecasts. The City further
concludes the pursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance between
short-term and long-term economic objectives. The City recognizes that some opportunities may warrant short-term incentives to achieve longer term employment or
property tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long-term
benefit and may not warrant the short-term fiscal cost of incentives.
2. Central Point concludes that effective economic development actions necessary to diversify the City’s economic base requires an understanding of, and a careful balance
between regional cooperation and competition. It is important to understand and pro-
actively participate in the broader national, state, and regional economic development
discussions. Participating in regional economic development programs like Southern
Oregon Regional Development, Inc. (SOREDI) and the Rogue Valley Workforce Development Council can improve the regional economic climate and a strong regional
economy will benefit all communities within the region. Most importantly, to be an
effective participant the City must recognize its competitive advantage within the region
and compete for those economic development opportunities within the region for which
Central Point is well positioned.
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3. Central Point concludes that the economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities
for which the City is well positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic
economic forces require the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on
opportunities as they arise. They also require the City to engage in sustained analysis of national, state, and local economic conditions. Only when the City is actively monitoring
its economy will it be poised to take advantage of good opportunities and guide the
community through any turbulent times.
The City’s economic development goals will be managed through the following policies:
i. Policy 1: Participation
The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming of
alternative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including education and workforce development that are consistent with the City’s economic development goals
ii. Policy 2: Refine Policies
The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and fiscal policies as they relate to economic development to ensure that the City’s economic development programming
can be effectively implemented.
iii. Policy 3: Monitor Long-Term Consequences
Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can
be demonstrated that the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and
the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City.
Goal: Economic Opportunities Synthesis
The conclusions in this section express the City’s synthesis of both the data and qualitative
findings made throughout this document. It also identifies the appropriate economic
opportunities:
i. Policy 4: Small Businesses
Central Point concludes that the City has experienced the loss of cottage industry and expanding
small businesses due to a lack of vacant available employment related buildings (flex-space238) and the City cannot attract small businesses from elsewhere for the same reason.
238 An industrial or commercial/office building designed to provide the flexibility to utilize the floor space in a variety of configurations. Usually provides a configuration allowing a flexible amount of office or showroom space
in combination with manufacturing, laboratory, warehouse distribution, etc.
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ii. Policy 5: Tolo Area
The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, continue planning the Exit 35 area—also
called “Area CP-1B (Tolo)”—in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic opportunities, especially for transportation-based economic activity and truck/rail freight support
services. This area also contains the aeronautics manufacturing company Erickson Air Crane and
serves aggregate uses; these uses have many specific and unique dimensions that should be
carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations applicable to this area need to account for
the site requirements of firms in these sectors. Because the area is currently constrained as a result of a lack of access to water, the City should begin planning how to make water more
readily available so as to make these lands available for more economic development.
iii. Policy 6: Monitor Regulations
The City shall periodically evaluate its regulations for employment related development,
particularly as it relates to targeted industries, as well as compatibility with adjacent non-
employment lands to ensure that regulations are consistent with applicable best practices.
Regulations found to no longer be appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable
thereafter.
Goal: Employment Land Supply and Development
This section sets forth the City’s conclusions and policies that result from the analysis of the
City’s land supplies and employment land development patterns, as follows:
1. Central Point concludes that it must maintain an adequate supply of employment land.
The City will need to expand its present UGB to ensure an adequate 5-year and 20-year
supply of buildable employment land.
2. The City Concludes that its existing supply of employment lands are inadequate to meet
future needs and that all efforts should be made to ensure the City has an adequate supply
of each land type.
3. Central Point concludes that the availability of vacant buildings for expanding small businesses is in short supply and that an effort should be made to encourage its
development to expand the city’s inventory of “flex-space.”
4. Central Point concludes that urban facilities and services are critical for the development
of employment lands. Thus, the City’s Goal 11 Public Facilities and Services planning and Goal 12 Transportation Planning are critical to the timely delivery of infrastructure
necessary to support economic development.
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The City’s Employment Land Supply Goals will be managed through the following policies:
i. Policy 7: Adequate Short-Term Supply
The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and
transportation facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of
competitive short-term buildable lands sufficient to meet employment needs within a five-year
period, particularly for the retail, specialty foods, professional, health care, and trucking sectors.
ii. Policy 8: Prepare for Long-Term Needs
The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short-term employment lands in the medium and
large site categories equivalent to the twenty-year demand for those categories. The supply of
short-term employment land shall be reviewed and updated annually. When it is determined that the supply of land as measured in terms of number of sites and/or acreage in the medium and
large site categories is inadequate to serve the twenty-year needs then the City shall amend its
UGB to include additional short-term (5-year) employment lands.
iii. Policy 9: Adequate Supplies for Small Businesses
The City shall pursue and encourage Turnkey Design and Build solutions for flex-space that
create opportunities for expanding small businesses in Central Point, and may consider economic
development incentives to attract and ‘marry’ the construction and development component with
the small business component as an inducement to development, but only when it can be demonstrated that: the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and
the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City.
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