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Home My WebLink AboutMay 14, 2019 CAC PacketCITIZENS ADVISORY COMMITTEE May 14,2019,6:00 p.m. Council Chambers at Central Point City Hall I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER II. ROLL CALL/INTRODUCTIONS David Painter (Chair), Cameron Noble, Cinda Harmes, Robin Stroh, Carrie Reed, Mike House III. MINUTES Review and approval of the April 9, 2019 minutes. IV. PUBLIC APPEARANCES V. BUSINESS VI. DISCUSSION A. Employment Buildable Lands Inventory Discussion. B. Economic Element Discussion. VII. MISCELLANEOUS VIII. ADJOURNMENT City of Central Point Citizens Advisory Committee Minutes April 9, 2019 k. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER AT 6:03 P.M. II. ROLL CALL Present were: David Painter (chair) Carrie Reed, Cinda Harmes, Robin Stroh Also in attendance were: Tom Humphrey, Community Development Director, Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner, Justin Gindlesperger, Community Planner and Karin Skelton, Planning Secretary. III. MINUTES Cinda Harmes made a motion to approve the minutes of the January 15, 2019 Citizen's Advisory Committee Minutes. Robin Stroh seconded. All members said "aye". Motion passed. IV. PUBLIC APPEARANCES No public appearances V. BUSINESS VI. DISCUSSION A. Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan — 2019 Update Justin Gindlesperger gave an overview of the Hazard Mitigation Plan. He said the City has a plan that was adopted in 2011 and needs to be updated to account for community changes since that time. The Plan evaluates the City's vulnerability to natural hazards and establishes a plan to reduce risk. It identifies three primary hazards; flood, earthquake and severe weather. He said it is necessary for the City to maintain a current plan to retain eligibility for pre and post -disaster federal funding and flood insurance discounts through the community rating system. Mr. Gindlesperger said the update will identify new hazards, changes to the extent of previously identified hazards, and ways to respond to disaster when they do happen. He said wildfires will be added as a hazard in this update. He explained the Mission Statement and Goals of the Plan. He also reviewed the types of flood hazards and different types of earthquakes and severe weather conditions. He said the primary issue in considering the Hazard Mitigation Plan is to identify local CAC Minutes April 9, 2018 Page 2 policies and actions that can be implemented to reduce risk and future losses from hazards. David Painter asked if there were any public comments on the Hazard Mitigation Plan. There were no public comments. B. Residential Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) Amendment. Present and discuss two preliminary mapping alternatives for the Residential UGB Amendment. File No. CPA -19001. Applicant: City of Central Point. Ms. Holtey gave an overview of the preliminary mapping alternatives for the Residential Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) Amendment. She said the City's last residential UGB amendment occurred in 1983. Since that time, the City has grown substantially and it is expected that the City will continue to grow at a steady rate over the next 20 -years. Based on the Residential Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI), the City doesn't have enough land inside the current UGB to accommodate forecast growth and will need to expand its UGB to provide land supply for residential, park and school needs. She said currently the City is evaluating alternative boundary locations for a residential UGB amendment, including 305 acres for housing, 54 acres of park land and 16 acres for schools. Ms. Holtey explained when considering amendments to the UGB, the City must demonstrate a need for the added land as well as forethought regarding its location. The Urbanization Element establishes a list of locational criteria to be used in evaluating alternative boundary locations. These include: 1. Properties that abut either the City Limits or current UGB; 2. Properties that are greater than 10 acres in size; 3. Properties that abut or are within 500 -ft of basic urban services (i.e. water, sewer, storm water); 4. Properties that are proximate to or include mixed use/pedestrian friendly areas; 5. Compatibility with nearby agricultural uses outside the proposed UGB; 6. Proximity to transportation infrastructure; 7. Lands that have been master planned; 8. Readiness for development; and, 9. Proximity to the City Center using a concentric growth pattern. She presented two alternative boundary locations prepared by staff. She said these represent two possible scenarios based on application of coarse locational criteria. Staff Alternative I applies the coarse locational criteria addressed in the Urbanization Element but emphasizes inclusion of larger lots, greater than 10 acres. CAC Minutes April 9, 2018 Page 3 She said Staff Alternative 1 B applies the coarse locational criteria addressed in the Urbanization Element, but increases the emphasis on small to mid-size parcels with access to services and exception lands in proximity to basic urban services. Ms. Holtey said the alternative boundary locations were presented at the April 2, 2019 Planning Commission meeting. Based on the combined input of the Planning Commission, CAC and the public, a final draft map will be prepared for discussion at the May 7, 2019 Planning Commission meeting. This will allow the Planning Commission to review further comments and input received along with the CAC's recommended changes prior to finalizing the mapping needed for the Residential UGB Amendment application. David Painter asked if there were any public comments. Katy Mallams, Heritage Road. Ms. Mallams asked for confirmation that the UGB amendment would be discussed at the upcoming City Council meeting. Ms. Holtey responded yes, it would be a discussion item at the next City Council Meeting. She said it would not be a public hearing but a discussion item on the agenda. Ms. Mallams asked if there would be public comment taken at that meeting. Mr. Humphrey responded that would be up to the Council. He suggested she request at the beginning of the meeting that she be allowed to comment on this agenda item. The decision would be up to the Council. Ms. Mallams asked if the draft maps might be modified and be different by the time of the public hearings. Ms. Holtey said the drafts were two alternatives derived using the factors adopted by Council using the Urbanization Element. There are limited areas to grow into which are close to the UGB and proximate to services. She explained the purpose of this discussion was to obtain input regarding concerns or preferences for the location of the UGB. The input received from the Planning Commission and the Citizen's Advisory Committee would be presented to the City Council. The Council would consider the alternatives and the input from PC, CAC and Citizen comments and would then direct staff as to how the map should be refined. Ms. Mallams asked how the final map would be decided. Ms. Holtey outlined the process. She said once a final draft map is identified, the City will submit the application to Jackson County and notify the State. It has to be approved by both the State and Jackson County. She said throughout the process there will be joint public hearings with the City of Central Point and Jackson County. She explained that during this process, there could be modifications made. The City Council and the Board of Commissioners will be the ultimate decision makers. Ms. Mallams stated in 2017 residents on Heritage Road signed a petition stating they did not want to be included in the UGB and they presented a concept plan which protected their neighborhood from inclusion. She said she wanted to make sure this CAC Minutes April 9, 2018 Page 4 was in the record. She said they did not want road development to the south of the Taylor West properties. She stated the Heritage Road residents did not want the development to disturb their neighborhood. Jim Brown, Heritage Road. Mr. Brown expressed his desire to join the Taylor West group of landowners. He acknowledged the neighbors to the south did not want to be in the UGB. He said his property borders the Taylor West group and he felt when that area was developed services would be sufficiently close to his property to allow him to annex into the City. Russell Kockx, Grant Road Mr. Kockx said he owns 30 acres by Twin Creeks Crossing. He stated he supported the UGB Amendment and would like to have his property included. He said a few of his neighbors have expressed interest in being in the UGB and he has encouraged them to contact the Planning Department. Tim Higinbotham, Taylor Road Mr. Higinbotham stated he belonged to the Taylor West group of property owners. He said they had a longstanding request to be included in the UGB amendment. He said the services available to the property also included gas which has not been previously mentioned. He said the Taylor West group had access to all services and met the criteria to be included in the UGB amendment. There were no additional public comments. Ms. Holtey stated that currently there was no formal application. Once an application was prepared there would be public hearings which would be noticed and there would be opportunity for citizen input at all the hearings. Additionally Rogue Valley Sewer Services had been provided with the draft maps in order to evaluate their ability to provide service to the areas. Mr. Humphrey said it was important to identify an area for the UGB amendment in order to properly notify residents in those areas being considered. The Committee discussed the two alternative maps. They felt the connectivity and larger lots of option 1 A was preferable. Mr. Humphrey stated a traffic study and transportation plan would be prepared and would be included in the formal application for the UGB Amendment. Ms. Holtey explained there have been concept plans prepared which include proposed zoning in order to not only meet density requirements but to provide the basis for evaluating traffic impacts. She explained the different zones and types of housing. CAC Minutes April 9, 2018 Page S The Committee said they appreciated the citizen input and would recommend option I as the preferred choice with the inclusion of larger lots and connectivity. PLANNING UPDATE • There is a proposal to build a combination chiropractic office and urgent care center on the corner of 6th & Pine Streets. • The Brodiart building is continuing construction • There is a new convenience market on S. Front street • The northbound lanes of North Front Street are being paved in preparation for the railroad crossing • The Makers Space should be completed and open in May • The Planning Commission has approved the new fire station on Scenic Avenue VII. MISCELLANEOUS VIII. ADJOURNMENT David Painter declared the meeting adjourned at 7:45 p.m. The foregoing minutes of the April 9, 2019 Citizens Advisory Committee were approved by the Citizens Advisory Committee at its meeting of 2019. Chairman 6 2019 Employment Buildable Lands Inventory May 14, 2019 Agenda Item: VIII -A Introduce and discuss the 2019 Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI). Applicant: City of Central Point. File No. CPA -19002. Staff Source Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner Tom Humphrey, AICP, Community Development Director Background In accordance with OAR 660-024-0050(1), the City maintains an Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) (Attachment "A"). The purpose of the Employment BLI is to track the availability of buildable employment (i.e. commercial, industrial and civic) land in the City's urban area over a 20 -year period. The last Employment BLI occurred in 2013 as part of the Economic Element update. Since that time, the City has received a request and declared its intent to initiate a UGB amendment to add land in CP -3 for commercial employment and open space preservation use. Updating the Employment BLI is a prerequisite to determining employment land need over the next 20 -years. At the May 14, 2019 Citizen's Advisory Committee meeting, staff will introduce basic elements of the Employment BLI and highlight the most significant findings. The City's urban area consists of 2,972 acres of which 633 (24%) are designated for employment use in the following general categories: x Commercial: 232.70 acres (8%) x Industrial: 279.50 acres (9%) x Civic: 121.05 acres (4%) The Employment BLI tracks the development status of the City's employment lands by land use classification and zoning district. There are two basic types of buildable lands: 1) vacant land and 2) redevelopment land. Vacant lands have no improvement value and redevelopment lands are those lands that have experienced development but are likely to be converted to more intensive employment uses during the planning period due to present or expected market forces. Per the BLI, the City has 151 acres of buildable employment land, 16% of which is classified as redevelopment land. Additionally the BLI evaluates parcel size distribution (i.e. small, medium and large) for retail, office, and industrial land use for vacant and redevelopment land. The BLI shows that the City's vacant employment land is concentrated in the large retail and large industrial parcel category (31%) but represents only 4% of the total number of vacant employment parcels. Issues There are no issues. The Employment BLI is an inventory of buildable lands and is not a policy document. The data in the BLI supports analysis in the Economic Element to determine and set polices relative to the opportunities and need for employment land in the City's urban area over the next 20 -years. Attachments: Attachment "A" — Employment BLI (Discussion Draft) Action Discuss the Employment BLI and forward a recommendation to the Planning Commission and City Council to: 1) approve without changes, 2) approve with changes or 3) make changes and bring back for further discussion at the July CAC meeting. Recommendation Forward a favorable recommendation with or without changes. _; Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) Me 2019-2039 Discussion Draft 5/7/2019 City of Central Point Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................3 2. LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS AND ZONING.......................................................................4 3. EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY..............................................................................................4 4. BUILDABLE EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY.....................................................................5 5. Employment Land Need.............................................................................................................12 6. DEFINITIONS and METHODOLOGY........................................................................................12 APPENDIX „A„ _ Definitions..............................................................................................................14 APPENDIX "B" - Methodology for Calculation of Employment Buildable Land .............17 is 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of the Employment Buildable Land Inventory (Employment BLI) is to maintain a record of the availability of buildable employment lands within the City's urban area (Figure 1). The Employment BLI is prepared in accordance with OAR 660-24-0050(1) requiring that cities maintain a buildable lands inventory within the urban growth boundary sufficient to accommodate the employment needs for a 20 -year planning period as determined in OAR 660- 009-0015. For purposes of this Employment BLI the 20 -year planning period is 2019 to 2039. AX PORA INT L Legend Ffasui n � RfiYOfE pfAi �J i:y i.nlii Ciy Nf�Pek: 5ffanri NYfrYve�9 Urban Cvavih Beuntlary Figure 1 URBAN AREA, 201 8 12 By definition the Employment BLI is strictly a land inventory system. The Employment BLI is not a policy document. The Employment BLI is used by other Comprehensive Plan elements as a resource for the development and monitoring of policies related to economic development and land use. The Employment BLI is considered a living document that is continually updated as development activity occurs and is entered into the City's BLI electronic data base (BLI2019). 2. LAND USE CLASSIFICATIONS AND ZONING The Employment BLI maintains an accounting of all employment lands by land use classification and zoning. The City's Comprehensive Plan contains eight (8) employment land use classifications (Table 1). The employment land use classifications are supported by eight (8) employment zoning districts (Table 2). The Land Use Classifications and Zoning districts are defined and mapped in the City's Land Use Element. Table 1. City of Central Point Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation Comprehensive Plan Designation Total City Total UGB Acres Acres Total Urban Acres NCom 2.64 7.83 10.47 TPCom 100.47 8.48 108.95 TCCom 12.49 3.19 15.69 GenCom 56.13 - 56.13 Em Com 41.47 - 41.47 TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70 Llnd 78.57 102.37 180.95 HInd 39.67 58.89 98.56 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05 TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05 GRAND TOTAL 452.35 180.90 633.21 Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI 3. EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY As of December 31, 2018, the City of Central Point's urban area contained a total of 633 gross acres (Table 1 and 2) of employment designated land, representing 21% of the City's total land inventory. The City's Employment lands were distributed amongst three basic land use categories; Commercial (8%), Industrial (9%), and Civic (4%) lands. 13 Table 2. City of Central Point Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District Comprehensive Plan Designation Total City Total UGB Acres Acres Total Urban Acres C -2(m) 12.08 - 12.08 CN 2.64 7.83 10.47 C-4 100.47 8.48 108.95 C-5 12.49 3.19 15.69 EC 29.39 - 29.39 GC 56.13 - 56.13 TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70 M-1 77.57 91.50 169.08 M-2 40.67 69.76 110.43 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 Civic 120.91 0.14 121.05 TOTAL CIVIC 120.91 0.14 121.05 tXIMMIJ '1'1 1 Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI 4. BUILDABLE EMPLOYMENT LAND INVENTORY The term "Buildable Land" is typically reserved for residential use'. However, for purposes of consistency the term "Buildable Land" is applied in this BLI for purposes of identifying and tracking the City's Employment Land inventory. Within the City's urban area, there are approximately 633 acres of employment land distributed over eight (8) employment land use classifications and eight (8) employment zoning districts. Approximately 151 acres (24%) of the City's total employment land is considered net buildable acres. Table 3 and 4 identify the distribution of the employment net buildable land by vacant land type (vacant, constrained, and redevelopment), and total buildable acres. Figure 2 illustrates the geographic distribution of the City's employment buildable land inventory (12/31/2018). In calculating the Employment Net Buildable Lands a determination must be made that the buildable lands are suitable, available and necessary (OAR 660-009-0005(2)) for development throughout the 20 -year planning period. There are two basic classifications of buildable employment land: a. Vacant Land -Lands on which there are no improvements. Infrastructure is available within the 20 -year planning period. 1 OAR 660-024-0010(1). 14 b. Redevelopable Land -Lands on which development has already occurred but on which, due to present or expected market forces, there exists the strong likelihood that existing development will be converted to more intensive employment uses during the planning period. 4.2 Total Net Buildable Acres. Tables 3 and 4 identify the Total Net Buildable Acres of employment land by land use designation and zoning. Approximately 23% of the City's employment lands are identified as buildable. A large percentage (16) of the City's net buildable acreage is classified as redevelopment land. Table 3. City of Central Point Net Buildable Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation LIM 78.57 102.37 180.95 69.18 14.90 54.28 13.57 40.71 34.31 75.02 Illnd 39.67 58.89 98.56 18.49 5.33 13.17 3.29 9.88 1.87 11.75 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 87.67 20.23 67.45 16.86 5058 36.18 86.77 source City fU-1 Pit 7019 BIS Table 4. City of Central Point Net Buildable Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District Gross Net Buildable Public Buildable Total Net Total City Total UGB Total Urban Total Vacant Constrain Vacant Facility Vacant Redevelopable Buildable Comprehensive Plan Designation Acres Acres Acres Acres d Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres NCom 2.64 7.83 10.47 0.24 - 0.24 0.06 0.18 - 0.18 TPCom 100.47 8.48 108.95 45.71 1.41 44.30 11.07 33.22 5.12 38.34 TCCom 12.49 3.19 15.69 11.07 - 11.07 2.77 8.30 3.19 11.50 GenCom 56.13 - 56.13 8.23 - 8.23 2.06 6.17 0.51 6.68 ErnpCorn 41.47 '.473 5.13 1.03 4.10 1.03 3.08 0.12 3.20 TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70 70J8 2.44 67.94 16.99 50.96 1 8.95 1 59.90 LIM 78.57 102.37 180.95 69.18 14.90 54.28 13.57 40.71 34.31 75.02 Illnd 39.67 58.89 98.56 18.49 5.33 13.17 3.29 9.88 1.87 11.75 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 87.67 20.23 67.45 16.86 5058 36.18 86.77 source City fU-1 Pit 7019 BIS Table 4. City of Central Point Net Buildable Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District M-1 78.57 102.37 180.95 69.18 14.90 54.28 13.57 40.71 34.31 75.02 M-2 39.67 58.89 98.56 18.49 5.33 13.17 3.29 9.88 1.87 11.75 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 87.67 20.23 67.45 16.86 50.58 36.18 86.77 Sou- (iiy,,f C--lCum,?019 B3 4.3 Parcel Size Distribution. An important consideration in considering a city's employment land inventory is parcel size. This is particularly true for industrial property. Tables 5 and 6 identify the distribution of the City's employment lands by size (Large, Medium, and Small) within three general employment categories (Retail, Office, and Industry). Table 7 and 8 illustrates the same information for vacant employment lands. Figure 3 summarizes the parcel and acreage distribution for the vacant employment lands. As illustrated in Table 3 the City's inventory of vacant employment land is 15 Gross Net Buildable Public Buildable Total Net Total City Total UGB Total Urban Total Vacant Constrain Vacant Facility Vacant Redevelopable Buildable Comprehensive Plan Designation Acres Acres Acres Acres dAcres Acres Acres Acres Acres Acres C -2(m) 12.08 - 12.08 - - - - - 0.12 0.12 CN 2.64 7.83 10.47 0.24 - 0.24 0.06 0.18 - 0.18 C-4 100.47 8.48 108.95 45.71 1.41 44.30 11.07 33.22 5.12 38.34 C-5 12.49 3.19 15.69 11.07 - 11.07 2.77 8.30 3.19 11.50 EC 29.39 - 29.39 5.13 1.03 4.10 1.03 3.08 - 3.08 GC 56.13 56.13 8.23 8.23 2.06 6.17 0.51 6.68 TOTAL COMMERCIAL 213.19 19.51 232.70 7038 2.44 67.94 16.99 50.96 8.95 1 59.90 M-1 78.57 102.37 180.95 69.18 14.90 54.28 13.57 40.71 34.31 75.02 M-2 39.67 58.89 98.56 18.49 5.33 13.17 3.29 9.88 1.87 11.75 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 118.24 161.26 279.50 87.67 20.23 67.45 16.86 50.58 36.18 86.77 Sou- (iiy,,f C--lCum,?019 B3 4.3 Parcel Size Distribution. An important consideration in considering a city's employment land inventory is parcel size. This is particularly true for industrial property. Tables 5 and 6 identify the distribution of the City's employment lands by size (Large, Medium, and Small) within three general employment categories (Retail, Office, and Industry). Table 7 and 8 illustrates the same information for vacant employment lands. Figure 3 summarizes the parcel and acreage distribution for the vacant employment lands. As illustrated in Table 3 the City's inventory of vacant employment land is 15 concentrated in the large retail and large industrial parcel category (31%), but only represent 4% of the total number of vacant employment parcels. Figure 3. Vacant Acreage by Percentage Distribution and Size 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 100/0 1 , '.... 1 G /6 ...... Large Medium Small Large Medium Small Large Medium Small Retail Retail Retail Office Office Office Industrial Industrial Industrial ■ Vacant Acreage ■ Vacant Parcels It needs to be noted that the Office category is represented by the EmpCom land use classification. With respect to office use all of the Cities commercial land use classifications all office uses. The EmpCom classification focuses on office uses, however; the EmpCom does allow retail uses. 16 Table 5. City of Central Point Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation Acres, and Size Classification Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres) NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 TPCom 31.7 9 3.5 6.0 1 6.0 TCCom 9.9 3 3.3 3.2 1 3.2 GenCom 17.7 7 2.5 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Medium Retail 59.2 19 3.1 9.2 2 4.6 LInd Hlnd 34.9 19.4 6 4 5.8 4.9 48.7 56.5 10 7 4.9 8.1 Small Retail (<2 acres) 54.3 10 5.4 105.2 17.0 NCom 2.6 4 0.7 7.8 10 0.8 TPCom 37.8 81 0.5 2.5 2 1.3 TCCom 2.6 2 1.3 0.0 0 0.0 GenCom 38.5 100 0.4 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Small Retail 81.5 187 0.4 10.4 12 0.9 Retail Subtotal 171.7 208 1 19.5 14 Office (>= 3.5 I EmpCom 1 7.1 2 3.61 0.0 0 0.01 Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres) EmpCom 13.9 8 1.71 0.0 0 0.0 Small Office (<1 acre) EmpCom 20.4 90 0 2F 0.0 0 0.0 Office Subtotal 1 41.5 100 1 0 0 INDUSTRIAL Large Industrial (>= 15 acres) Had Hlnd 17.3 20.2 1 1 17.3 20.2 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 Subtotal Large Industrial 37.5 2 0.0 0 Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres) LInd Hlnd 34.9 19.4 6 4 5.8 4.9 48.7 56.5 10 7 4.9 8.1 Subtotal Medium Industrial 54.3 10 5.4 105.2 17.0 Small Industrial (<3 acres) LInd Hlnd 26.4 0.0 22 0 1.2 0.0 53.7 2.4 57 2 0.94 1.18 Subtotal Small Industrial 26.4 22 1.2 56.0 59 Industrial Subtotal 118.2 34 161.3 76 Grand Total 331.4 342 180.77'I Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI 17 Table 6. City of Central Point Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District, Acres, and Size Classification Large Retail (8 or more acres) C -2(m) 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 C-4 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0 C-5 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 GC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Large Retail 1 30.9 2 15.51 0.0 10 5.4 Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres) 17.0 Small Industrial (<3 acres) C -2(m) 3.5 1 3.5 0.0 0 0.0 CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 C-4 31.7 9 3.5 6.0 1 6.0 C-5 9.9 3 3.3 3.2 1 3.2 GC 17.7 7 2.5 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Medium Retail 1 62.8 20 3.11 9.2 Small Retail (<2 acres) C -2(m) 8.6 32 0.3 0.0 0 0.0 CN 2.6 4 0.7 7.8 10 0.8 C-4 37.8 81 0.5 2.5 2 1.3 C-5 2.6 2 1.3 0.0 0 0.0 GC 38.5 100 0.4 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Small Retail 1 90.1 219 0.41 10.4 12 0.9 Retail Subtotal 1 183.8 241 1 19.5 14 Large Office (>= 3.5 acres) EC 3.6 1 3.61 0.0 0 0.0 Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres) EC 12.2 7 1.7 0.0 0 0.0 Small Office (<1 acre) EC 13.6 59 0.2 0.0 0 0.0 Office Subtotal 29.4 67 0 0 Large Industrial (>= 15 acres) M-1 M-2 17.3 20.2 1 1 17.3 20.2 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 Subtotal Small Retail 37.5 2 0.0 0 Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres) M-1 M-2 34.9 19.4 6 4 5.8 4.9 48.7 56.5 10 7 4.9 8.1 Subtotal Small Retail 54.3 10 5.4 105.2 17.0 Small Industrial (<3 acres) M-1 M-2 26.4 0.0 22 0 1.2 0.0 53.7 2.4 57 2 0.94 1.18 Subtotal Small Retail 26.4 22 1.2 56.0 59 Industrial Subtotal 118.2 34 161.3 76 Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLd 18 Table 7. City of Central Point Vacant Employment Land Inventory by Comprehensive Plan Designation Acres, and Size Classification Office f>= 3.5 I E=Com 1 0.0 0 0.01 0.0 0 0.01 Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres) EmpCom 4.6 3 1.51 0.0 0 0.0 Small Office (<1 acre) EmpCom 0.5 1 0.51 0.0 0 0.0 Office Subtotal 1 5.1 4 1 0 0 1 ' Large Industrial (-15 acres) Number CITY Parcel UGB t Parcel Land Use Designation 17.3 0.0 of 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 of 0.0 0.0 Large Retail (8 plus acres) 17.3 1 0.0 0 NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 TPCom 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0 TCCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 GenCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres) 15.1 0.0 14 0 1.1 0.0 2.7 0.5 5 1 0.54 0.49 NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 TPCom 7.2 3 2.4 0.0 0 0.0 TCCom 9.9 3 3.3 0.0 0 0.0 GenCom 2.9 1 2.9 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Medium Retail 20.0 7 2.9 0.0 0 0.0 Small Retail (<2 acres) NCom 0.0 0 0.0 0.2 1 0.2 Worn 7.6 16 0.5 0.0 0 0.0 TCCom 1.2 1 1.2 0.0 0 0.0 GenCom 5.3 14 0.4 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Small Retail 14.1 31 0.5 0.2 1 0.2 Retail Subtotal 65.0 40 1 0.2 1 Office f>= 3.5 I E=Com 1 0.0 0 0.01 0.0 0 0.01 Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres) EmpCom 4.6 3 1.51 0.0 0 0.0 Small Office (<1 acre) EmpCom 0.5 1 0.51 0.0 0 0.0 Office Subtotal 1 5.1 4 1 0 0 1 ' Large Industrial (-15 acres) Llnd HInd 17.3 0.0 1 0 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 Subtotal Large Industrial 17.3 1 0.0 0 Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres) Llnd Hlnd 18.1 8.7 3 2 6.0 4.4 16.0 9.3 2 2 8.0 4.6 Subtotal Medium Industrial 26.8 5 5.4 25.2 4.0 Small Industrial (<3 acres) Llnd Hlnd 15.1 0.0 14 0 1.1 0.0 2.7 0.5 5 1 0.54 0.49 Subtotal Small Industrial 15.1 14 1.1 3.2 6 Industrial Subtotal 59.3 20 28.4 10 Grand Total 129.4 64 28.66 11 Source: City of Central Point 2019 BU W Table 8. City of Central Point Vacant Employment Land Inventory by Zoning District, Acres, and Size Classification Large Retail (8 plus acres) C -2(m) 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 C-4 30.9 2 15.5 0.0 0 0.0 C-5 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 GC 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Large Retail 30.9 2 15.51 0.0 0 0.0 Medium Retail (2 to 7.99 acres) M-1 M-2 15.1 0.0 C -2(m) 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 C-4 7.2 3 2.4 0.0 0 0.0 C-5 9.9 3 3.3 0.0 0 0.0 GC 2.9 1 2.91 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Medium Retail 1 20.0 7 2.91 0.0 0 0.0 Small Retail (<2 acres) C -2(m) 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 CN 0.0 0 0.0 0.2 1 0.2 C-4 7.6 16 0.5 0.0 0 0.0 C-5 1.2 1 1.2 0.0 0 0.0 GC 5.3 14 0.4 0.0 0 0.0 Subtotal Small Retail 14.1 31 0.51 0.2 1 0.2 Retail Subtotal 65.0 40 0.2 1 Office (>= 3.5 Medium Office (1 - 3.49 acres) EC 4.6 3 1.51 0.0 0 0.0 Small Office (<1 acre) EC 0.5 1 0.51 0.0 0 0.0 Office Subtotal 5.1 4 1 0 0 INDUSTRIAL Large Industrial (>= 15 acres) M-1 M-2 17.3 0.0 1 0 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 Subtotal Large Industrial 17.3 1 0.0 0 Medium Industrial (3 - 14.99 acres) M-1 M-2 18.1 8.7 3 2 6.0 4.4 16.0 9.3 2 2 8.0 4.6 Subtotal Medium Industrial 26.8 5 5.4 25.2 4.0 Small Industrial (<3 acres) M-1 M-2 15.1 0.0 14 0 1.1 0.0 2.7 0.5 5 1 0.54 0.49 Subtotal Small Industrial 15.1 14 1.1 3.2 6 Industrial Subtotal 59.3 20 28.4 10 Grand Total 129.4 64 28.66 11 Source: City of Central Point 2019 BLI 20 S. Employment Land Need As previously noted the primary function of the BLI is to assist in the identification of buildable land needs during a 20 -year planning period. The BLI does not determine the City's quantitative need for employment land, it only identifies the City's current employment land inventory. The determination of the City's need for employment land is the function of the Economic Element. As noted earlier the BLI is a living document that changes as changes occur in employment development activity and policy. 6. DEFINITIONS and METHODOLOGY To maintain consistency in the maintenance of the BLI the definitions and methodology used in preparing the Employment BLI are presented in Appendix "A" — Definitions and Appendix `B" — Methodology. 21 L CENTRAL POINT - Underdeveloped Residential a 0.5 acres Underdeveloped Residential LI < 0.3 Residential Buildable Lands Inventory 2019 `0: APPENDIX "A" - Definitions The 2019 BLI was last updated December 30, 2018. The following definitions are used in preparing and maintain the residential BLI. (1) "Buildable Land, Employment" means Employment designated lots or parcels within the City's urban area, including vacant and developed lots or parcels likely to be redeveloped that are suitable, available and necessary for employment uses (OAR 660-009-0005(1)). Land is .eg nerallX considered "suitable and available" unless it: 1. Is severely constrained by natural hazards as determined under Statewide Planning Goal 7; 2. Is subject to natural resource protection measures determined under Statewide Planning Goals 5, 6, 15, 16, 17 or 18; 3. Has slopes of 25 percent or greater; 4. Is within the 100 -year flood plain; or 5. Cannot be provided with public facilities. (2) "Redevelopment Land, Employment" means non -vacant land that is likely to be redeveloped during the planning period. For purposes of this BLI the term Employment Redevelopment Land is employment land that has a Land (L) to Improvement (I) ratio of less than 1 and is occupied by a single-family detached residence. The L:I Ratio is the ratio between the real market value of land and the real market value of improvements as measured by taking the real improvement value of a parcel divided by the real land value based on the Jackson County Assessor records. (3) "Development Constraints" means factors that temporarily or permanently limit or prevent the use of land for economic development. Development constraints include, but are not limited to, wetlands, environmentally sensitive areas such as habitat, environmental contamination, slope, topography, cultural and archeological resources, infrastructure deficiencies, parcel fragmentation, or natural hazard areas (OAR 660-009-0005)(2). (4) "Industrial Use" means employment activities generating income from the production, handling or distribution of goods. Industrial uses include, but are not limited to: manufacturing; assembly; fabrication; processing; storage; logistics; warehousing; importation; distribution and transshipment; and research and development. Industrial uses may have unique land, infrastructure, energy, and transportation requirements. Industrial uses may have external impacts on surrounding uses and may cluster in traditional or new industrial areas where they are segregated from other non -industrial activities (OAR 660-009-0005(3). (5) "Other Employment Use" means all non -industrial employment activities including the widest range of retail, wholesale, service, non-profit, business headquarters, administrative and governmental employment activities that are accommodated in retail, office and flexible building types. Other employment uses also include employment activities of an entity or organization that serves the medical, educational, social service, recreation and security needs of the community typically in large buildings or multi -building campuses (OAR -009-0005)(6). 23 (5) "Planning Area" means the area within an existing or proposed urban growth boundary. Cities and counties with urban growth management agreements must address the urban land governed by their respective plans as specified in the urban growth management agreement for the affected area (OAR 660- 009-0005(7). (6) "Prime Industrial Land" means land suited for traded -sector industries as well as other industrial uses providing support to traded -sector industries. Prime industrial lands possess site characteristics that are difficult or impossible to replicate in the planning area or region. Prime industrial lands have necessary access to transportation and freight infrastructure, including, but not limited to, rail, marine ports and airports, multimodal freight or transshipment facilities, and major transportation routes. Traded - sector has the meaning provided in ORS 285B.280 (OAR 660-009-0005)(8). (7) "Serviceable" means the city has determined that public facilities and transportation facilities, as defined by OAR 660, divisions 011 and 012, currently have adequate capacity for development planned in the service area where the site is located or can be upgraded to have adequate capacity within the 20 - year planning period (OAR 660-009-0005)(9). (8) "Short-term Supply of Land" means suitable land that is ready for construction within one year of an application for a building permit or request for service extension. Engineering feasibility is sufficient to qualify land for the short-term supply of land. Funding availability is not required. "Competitive Short- term Supply" means the short-term supply of land provides a range of site sizes and locations to accommodate the market needs of a variety of industrial and other employment uses (OAR 660-009- 0005)(10). (9) "Site Characteristics" means the attributes of a site necessary for a particular industrial or other employment use to operate. Site characteristics include, but are not limited to, a minimum acreage or site configuration including shape and topography, visibility, specific types or levels of public facilities, services or energy infrastructure, or proximity to a particular transportation or freight facility such as rail, marine ports and airports, multimodal freight or transshipment facilities, and major transportation routes (OAR 660-009-0005)(11). (10) "Suitable" means serviceable land designated for industrial or other employment use that provides, or can be expected to provide the appropriate site characteristics for the proposed use (OAR 660-009- 0005)(12). (11) "Total Land Supply" means the supply of land estimated to be adequate to accommodate industrial and other employment uses for a 20 -year planning period. Total land supply includes the short-term supply of land as well as the remaining supply of lands considered suitable and serviceable for the industrial or other employment uses identified in a comprehensive plan. Total land supply includes both vacant and developed land (OAR 660-009-0005)(14). (12) "Vacant Land, Employment" means an employment designated lot or parcel not currently containing permanent buildings or improvements. For purposes of determination of the presence of permanent buildings/improvements all residential lots or parcels with an improvement value of zero (0), as determined by the Jackson County Assessor, are considered vacant. 24 (13) Net Buildable Acre, Employment: Consists of 43,560 square feet of employment designated buildable land, after excluding present and future rights-of-way for streets and roads (OAR 660-024- 0010(6)). 25 APPENDIX "B" - Methodology for Calculation of Employment Buildable Land The methodology used to inventory and calculate buildable lands is based on the definitions defined in Appendix A. The base data source for identification of buildable lands is the Jackson County Assessor's Records dated April 2018, which has been modified to include such additional information as Comprehensive Plan designations, zoning, development status, etc. The modified database is referred to as the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI2019.xls). Step 1. Urban Area, Gross Acres — Using the City's GIS the total geographic limits of the City's urban area are mapped and the gross acres within the limits of the shape file calculated by area within the City Limits and UGB. Step 2. Net Urban Area by Land Use and Zoning — Using BL12018 sum by land use and zoning all tax lots within the City's urban area (City Limits and UGB). Tax lots identified for street, road, or access right-of-way (public or private) purposes are not included. Step 3. Right -of -Way — Deduct the totals (City Limits and UGB) in Step 2 total from Step 1 total, the balance representing acreage used for right-of-way for the City Limits and UGB. The results of Steps 1— 3 are presented in Tables I and 2 of the 2019 Employment BLI. Step 4. Net Buildable Acres, Employment. The methodology for calculating Buildable Employment Land involves the following steps: Step 4a. Employment Vacant Acres. The BLI identifies all tax lots by their land use designation, zoning, development status, improvement and land value, and development constraints. When the improvement value of a property is zero the property is defined as Employment Vacant Land. The BLI sums the acreage for all Employment Vacant Land by land use and zoning for the City Limits and the UGB. Step 4b. Constrained Acres. The BLI includes information on the amount of constrained acreage for all lots or parcels. The BLI sums the constrained acreage for all employment designated properties, by land use and zoning and subtracts from Total Vacant Acres (Step 4a). Step 4c. Gross Buildable Vacant Employment Acres. Using the sum of the totals generated from Steps 4a and 4b the BLI calculates the Gross Buildable Vacant Employment land by land use and zoning for the City Limits and the UGB. Step 4d. Public Facility Acres. The Gross Buildable Vacant Acreage figure (Step 4c) is reduced by 25% to account for public right-of-way to yield Net Buildable Vacant Acreage. Step 4e. Employment Redevelopment Acres. The BLI identifies all employment designated tax lots for their redevelopment potential. Employment designated properties in excess of with a Land (L) to Improvement (I) ratio in less than 1 are defined and have 26 a single-family detached dwelling on-site are considered to be redevelopable during the 20 -year planning period. Step 4f. Total Net Buildable Employment Acres. The Employment Redevelopment Acres (Step 4e) are added to the Net Buildable Vacant Acres (Step 4e) to yield Total Net Buildable Acres for the City's employment lands. 27 2019 Economic Element Update 28 May 14, 2019 Agenda Item: VIII -C Introduce and discuss the 2019 Economic Element Update. Applicant: City of Central Point. File No. CPA -19003. Staff Source Stephanie Holtey, Principal Planner Tom Humphrey, AICP, Community Development Director Background There is interest in expanding the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to include land in the CP -3 Urban Reserve Area (URA) to accommodate business growth and job creation. The City Council approved Resolution No. 1432 declaring its intent to initiate a UGB amendment into CP -3 for this purpose. A prerequisite to expanding the UGB is showing a demonstrated need for additional commercial land. The basis for determining commercial land use needs is found in the Economic Element, which was last updated in 2013. Since that time, the City has added 49 acres of industrial land to the UGB, experienced growth on commercial lands in the City and received updated population and employment forecast data. Consequently the City needs to update the Economic Element to consider these changes prior to any formal consideration of expanding the UGB. Economic Element Overview: Statewide Planning Goal 9 is to "provide adequate opportunities throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare and prosperity of Oregon's citizens." To accomplish this the City conducts long-range planning following the requirements in OAR 660-009 to achieve the City's preferred future relative to economic development for the mutual benefit of local and state residents. The planning process involves four (4) steps: 1. Review national, state, regional, county and local economic trends; 2. Identify the types and number of sites needed to accommodate growth; 3. Inventory the industrial lands, employment lands, and vacant lands; and, 4. Assess the community's potential for economic development. Through this process the City evaluates its employment opportunities and associated land demand over the short (5 -year) and long (20 -year) term, as necessary to establish the economic goals and policies that will guide the City's employment activities over the next 20 -years (2019-2039). At the May 14, 2019 Citizen's Advisory Committee meeting staff will present a draft of the Economic Element including the methodology and significant findings for discussion (Attachment "A"). 29 Issues The most significant finding in the Economic Element is that Central Point is poised to capture nearly 7% of new jobs in the region resulting in a need for enough employment lands over the next 20 years for 1,915 new jobs. Based on the available lands supply and analysis of land demand relative to site requirements for employment industries, the City has a surplus of Industrial land but needs roughly 73 acres to meet the demand for commercial/service, civic, and other employment related land uses for the time period 2019-2039. Attachments: Attachment "A" — Economic Element (Discussion Draft) Action Discuss the Economic Element and forward a recommendation to: 1) approve without changes; 2) approve with changes, or 3) make changes and bring back for further discussion at the July meeting. Recommendation Forward a recommendation to approve the Economic Element with or without changes. 30 ECONOMIC ELEMENT 2019-2039 City of Central Point Comprehensive Plan Prepared by Huycke O'Connor Jarvis, LLP 823 Alder Creek Drive Medford, OR 97504 April 2019 "SECOND DRAFT" 31 Preface Legal Requirements: Oregon law requires local municipalities to adopt an Economic Element as a part of their Comprehensive Plans. OAR 660-009-0015. These Economic Elements help to implement Oregon Statewide Planning Goal #9, which is "to provide adequate opportunities throughout the state for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare, and prosperity of Oregon's citizens." That is, Goal #9 encourages local governments, like Central Point, to achieve their economic development planning goals so as to benefit the state's residents. Framework: Oregon Administrative Rules, Chapter 660, Division 9 calls for a four -step approach to economic development planning: 1. Review national, state, regional, county, and local economic trends 2. Identify the types and number of sites needed to accommodate growth 3. Inventory the industrial lands, employment lands, and vacant lands 4. Assess the community's potential for economic development This Economic Element follows these steps: Section 1 reviews Central Point's economic history, Section 2 analyzes national economic trends, Section 3 reviews economic data concerning the State of Oregon, Section 4 reviews both Southern Oregon and Central Point's economy, Section 5 contains a Population and Employment Forecast, Section 6 analyzes land demand for Central Point in both the short-term (5 years) and long-term (20 years), and Section 7 outlines the City's economic goals and policies that will guide the City of Central Point through the twenty-year planning period (2019-2039). This document will help guide the City of Central Point's future growth and development, correct problems, maximize potentials, and act as a guide for decision-making. For a more complete analysis of Central Point's planning needs, see the Comprehensive Plan (updated 1983) and the corresponding Population, Housing, and Land Use Elements, as well as the Central Point Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (2019-2039).1 This document should be read along with the Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (2019) and any subsequent inventory updates. ' See generally City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan (updated 1983). 32 Table of Contents Preface............................................................................................................................................. 2 Tableof Contents............................................................................................................................ 3 Listof Figures:................................................................................................................................ 5 Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 6 Summary......................................................................................................................................... 7 Section 1: Central Point's Economic History............................................................................ 8 Section 2: National Economic Trends....................................................................................... 9 Measuringthe National Economy.............................................................................................. 9 i. Gross Domestic Product............................................................................................... 9 ii. Employment................................................................................................................12 iii. Inflation....................................................................................................................... 14 National Economic Crosscurrents: ........................................................................................... 16 i. Trade Wars.................................................................................................................. 16 ii. Income Inequality....................................................................................................... 17 iii. Cost of Health Care..................................................................................................... 17 iv. Cost of Education........................................................................................................ 18 Section 3: State Economic Trends........................................................................................... 19 NeighboringStates.................................................................................................................... 19 Measuringthe State Economy.................................................................................................. 20 i. Gross Domestic Product............................................................................................. 20 ii. Employment................................................................................................................21 iii. Industry Strengths....................................................................................................... 23 State Economic Crosscurrents: ................................................................................................. 25 i. The National Economy............................................................................................... 25 ii. Trade Wars.................................................................................................................. 25 iii. Housing Affordability................................................................................................. 26 iv. Wildfires and Smoke................................................................................................... 26 Section 4: Economic Trends in Southern Oregon.................................................................... 27 i. Gross Domestic Product............................................................................................. 27 ii. Employment................................................................................................................29 iii. Housing....................................................................................................................... 30 Section 5: The City of Central Point's Trends.............................................................................. 31 Measuringthe City's Trends..................................................................................................... 31 i. Commuting Patterns.................................................................................................... 31 ii. Local Population Forecast........................................................................................... 32 iii. Regional Employment Forecast.................................................................................. 35 iv. Regional Competitiveness.......................................................................................... 40 V. Economic Development Context................................................................................ 42 vi. Competitive Position Summary.................................................................................. 44 vii. Assessment of Central Point's Economic Development Potential ............................. 44 viii. Central Point's Projected Job Growth......................................................................... 45 Section6: Land Demand.......................................................................................................... 48 Economic Growth Rate Forecast.............................................................................................. 48 i. Specialty Food Manufacturing.................................................................................... 48 33 ii. Trucking and Warehousing......................................................................................... 48 iii. Retail...........................................................................................................................49 iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry...................................................................... 49 i. Site Requirements Analysis........................................................................................ 50 ii. Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements............................................................. 51 Long-Term Land Demand Estimate......................................................................................... 52 iii. Estimate of Redevelopment........................................................................................ 53 Short-Term Land Demand Estimate......................................................................................... 54 Inventory of Employment Lands.............................................................................................. 54 i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency................................................................... 54 ii. Vacant Lands.............................................................................................................. 55 iii. Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 55 Section 7: Goals, Conclusions, and Policies............................................................................ 56 Goal: General Economic Development.................................................................................... 56 i. Policy 1: Participation................................................................................................. 58 ii. Policy 2: Refine Policies............................................................................................. 58 iii. Policy 3: Monitor Long-Term Consequences............................................................. 58 Goal: Economic Opportunities Synthesis................................................................................. 58 i. Policy 4: Small Businesses......................................................................................... 58 ii. Policy 5: Tolo Area..................................................................................................... 59 iii. Policy 6: Monitor Regulations.................................................................................... 59 Goal: Employment Land Supply and Development................................................................. 59 i. Policy 7: Adequate Short-Term Supply...................................................................... 60 ii. Policy 8: Prepare for Long-Term Needs..................................................................... 60 iii. Policy 9: Adequate Supplies for Small Businesses..................................................... 60 34 List of Figures: Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP................................................................................ 11 Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950.................................................................... 13 Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006................................................................... 13 Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ....................................... 15 Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers ....................................... 15 Figure 6: U.S. Health -Care Spending as a Share of GDP............................................................. 17 Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017................................................................................................ 20 Figure 8: Short -Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon................................................................ 21 Figure 9: Oregon's Unemployment Rate...................................................................................... 22 Figure 10: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 2016 ................. 23 Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County's GDP............................................................................. 28 Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County's GDP.......................................................................... 28 Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate......................................................................... 29 Figure 14: Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns............................................................... 31 - R R 7R O 3R O R ) -year Intervals (1975-2017) ................... 33 Figure 16: Population Growth Projections for City of Central Point and Jackson County.......... 34 Figure 17: Central Point Population Pyramid............................................................................... 34 Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, 2017-2027 .................................. 36 Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2017-2027 .......................................... 38 Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2027................................................................ 39 Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast..................................................................................... 40 Figure 22: Jackson County Shift -Share Analysis 2010 -2017 ....................................................... 41 Figure 23: Central Point's Qualitative Trends.............................................................................. 43 Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential....................................................... 45 Figure 25: Central Point's population growth rate....................................................................... 46 Figure 26: Central Point's 20 -year job forecast by industry......................................................... 47 Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry....................................................... 50 Figure 28: General Development Pattern Site Requirements....................................................... 51 Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039 ............................ 53 35 A01%k CENTRAL POINT Introduction Purpose: The purpose of this Economic Element is to determine the City of Central Point's economic goals, policies, and land use needs. It identifies economic development opportunities and corresponding employment land needs for the next 20 years (2019-2039). It also provides a realistic analysis of current economic trends and potential disruptions. Through this, Central Point will be better able to reduce costs and delays, anticipate obstacles, and keep planning activities aligned with the City's policies. Past Elements: The City of Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan in 1973.2 In 1980, the Rogue Valley Council of Governments prepared the City of Central Point's first Economic Element .3 That document was subsequently succeeded in 2013 by a version prepared by CSA Associates.4 This Economic Element of 2018 supersedes the previous versions and becomes part of Central Point's Comprehensive Plan. It establishes the framework for future economic growth and development and gives a long-range evaluation of the City's changing characteristics and needs. Geographic Scope: This Economic Element is limited in scope to developments within the Central Point city limits and the Urban Growth Boundary. Central Point is located near the geographic center of Jackson County in southwestern Oregon, approximately midway between Portland and San Francisco.5 The City has the advantage of being located directly on Interstate 5 (I-5), Highway 99 (U.S. Route 99), the Southern Pacific Railway, and adjacent to the Rogue Valley International Airport. Immediately to the south of Central Point is the City of Medford, which is the seat of Jackson County and the largest city in Southern Oregon. This provides Central Point residents with easy access to major shopping centers, employment, and governmental activities. 2 Id. at Preface 1. 3 City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 at 5 (2013). 4 See id. 5 City of Central Point, The Comprehensive Plan, Part IV, Plan Summary 3 (updated 1983). 36 Summary This Economic Element includes an economic history of Central Point, it analyzes current national, state, and regional economic trends, includes an employment forecast, and an inventory of lands used for employment. The final section outlines the City's economic goals and policies that will guide the City through the twenty-year planning period (2019-2039). The national economy is doing well, with GDP at a very healthy rate, unemployment down, and inflation moderate. However, leading economist are warning that the U.S. economy will slow and may even slide into a recession around the year 2020. Further, the economic health of the country is increasingly threatened by the possibility of trade wars, growing income inequality, and the costs of health care and education. As a result, the City of Central Point must be prepared for economic fluctuations in both the short- and long-term, which could seriously impact its land use planning forecasts. The state economy is "hitting the sweet spot" and doing well compared to other states. GDP is rising, employment has recovered from the Great Recession, and it has growing industries. However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the state economy is at risk from the U.S. economy's volatility, retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, a prolonged affordable housing crisis, as well as the impact of forest fires and smoke. While the economy may remain strong, the City should brace itself for a slowdown like the 1990s recession. The Southern Oregon region is doing even better than the state economy. Although the region was hit hard by the Great Recession, and recovery has been difficult, the GDP is growing faster than the national rate and USA Today has ranked both Jackson and Josephine counties as the 281h and 181h best local economies in the nation respectively. Nevertheless, the area still has high unemployment rates and is suffering from a lack of affordable housing for middle class workers. Central Point has a high population growth rate and is expected to grow to approximately 26,000 people by 2039. This means that Central Point will surpass the City of Ashland's population and capture almost 7 percent of the new jobs in the region over the next 20 years. The gains will be concentrated in service, health care, construction, professional, and the business industries. Its target industries include specialty foods, trucking and warehousing, and retail. According to the population and job capture rate, Central Point will need approximately 13 acres of new employment lands in the next 5 years and anywhere from 65 to 73 new acres by 2039. Ultimately, future economic conditions cannot be accurately predicted. However, strategically planning the City of Central Point's land base for the long-term has the potential to benefit economic development in the City and the surrounding area. This includes preparing to accommodate future needs and integrating the City's land use planning efforts within a broader economic development strategy. Central Point's last Economic Element was created in 2013. Because it relied on data from the 2010 census, and because there will be little new data before the 2020 census, much of this Economic Element is similar or identical to that of the last element. Furthermore, many of the conclusions in that element remain valid and are adopted. 37 Section 1: Central Point's Economic History. Central Point's economic history has centered on trade, resource-based industries such as forest products and agriculture, and minor retail for its residential areas. Incorporated by the State Legislature in 1889, Central Point was so named because of its location at the center of the inhabited parts of the Rogue Valley.6 Before then, Jacksonville had served as the region's economic center. However, when the railroad was built, Jacksonville was bypassed, and the tracks were built through what is now Central Point. Central Point's railroad station was the closest point to reach Crater Lake from the South. All the county roads leading from Ashland, Jacksonville, and Medford passed through Central Point, making it a prime area for shipping and trading. Central Point is located near some of Jackson County's most fertile soils and was well located to serve the surrounding farmers. Indeed, this remained the foundation of the City's economy well into the 1960s. Central Point's location allowed it to act as a trading location for the farming community, a location for schools, and as a well-placed area for shops and services. The City housed the Grange Co-op's grain elevator and various farm repair shops and equipment retail. Between the 1960s and 1970s, the City of Central Point rapidly expanded its residential development. Because there was no corresponding development of commercial and industrial industries, Central Point became a residential community largely inhabited by people who commuted to nearby cities for work. During this period the forest products industry grew, and residents of Central Point were able to find employment at the mills in Medford and White City. In 1980, the City of Central Point adopted its first Economic Element that has herewith been replaced by this Economic Element. The U.S. economy has undergone several economic cycles since then. The 1980 Economic Element sought to diversify the City's economy and reduce the degree of imbalance between employment and housing within the City. Central Point has been successful to some extent over the last thirty years in its efforts to diversify its economy. The City has experienced retail and industrial growth in and around Exit 33 on Interstate 5. Providence Hospital recently added a medical facility on Highway 99 south of Pine Street. A small specialty foods cluster has developed along Highway 99 north of Pine Street that includes Rogue Creamery, Lillie Belle Farms chocolates and a wine tasting room. The Rogue Valley Council of Governments has its main office building near downtown Central Point. A new Costco Wholesale store opened off of Table Rock Road in 2017. Further, newer retail exists near freeway interchanges and along Pine Street and Highway 99. These employers and others have served (and an overarching objective of this Economic Element is) to continue to add more balance and diversity to the City's employment base. 6 Democratic Times, Jacksonville, page 1 (July 18, 1889). Id. 38 Section 2: National Economic Trends Purpose It is important to review current trends in the U.S. economy. The national economy provides the necessary context for the adoption of updated economic development policies and strategies in the City's Comprehensive Plan. By engaging with governmental projections and economic forecasts, the City will be better able to position itself for long-term success. This review of national trends will help inform the Economic element by providing a foundation to describe the City's economic advantages and disadvantages. National Economic Trends The U.S. economy is booming. However, "potential danger lurks around the corner. ,8 Over the last decade, the national economy has largely recovered from the Great Recession: unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate, people appear confident in the economy, and the International Monetary Fund has projected a short-term growth of just under 3 percent.9 However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis warns that there are signs of a potential economic slowdown around 2020. Economic crosscurrents threaten economic stability, including the potential for global trade wars, increasing costs of health care, and the increasing burdens of higher education on younger generations. This indicates the likelihood of strong short-term growth for the United States but relative weakness in the medium and long term. 10 While there will likely be a downturn in the economy, it will probably be less severe than the Great Recession." Because there is no obvious asset or investment bubble today (unlike the subprime mortgages of 2008), if a recession occurs it will probably be similar to the recession of 1990.12 Measuring the National Economy There are many ways to analyze the national economy, such as the GDP, unemployment rate, and inflation rates. Each of these helps to describe how well the economy is doing and may indicate how healthy the economy will be in the future. i. Gross Domestic Product What is Gross Domestic Product? Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") is a measurement of how many goods and services the United States produces. 13 Because it measures production, it is one of the primary indicators used by economists to determine the health of the economy. 14 The ideal 8 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018). 9 Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed El-Erian: The US economy looks good' for the `next couple of years at least', CNBC (Oct. 9, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/10/09/mohamed-el-erian-us-economy-headed-for-solid- growth-for-couple-years.html. io Id. at 6. 11 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don't Hurt Em, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/10/26/hannner-dont-hurt-em/. 12 Id. 13 Harriet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-at-3-5-rate-in-third-quarter-1540557378. 14 Leslie Kramer, What is GDP and why is it so important to economists and investors? Investopedia (Feb. 5, 2018), available at: www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/what-is- dg p -why -its -important -to -economists -investors/. 39 GDP growth rate is between 2-3 percent. 15 If GDP grows too slowly it could indicate some economic unhealthiness; if it grows too fast it could mean that there is an asset bubble and that the economy is overheating. Past Trends Since Central Point published its first economic element in 1980, the national GDP has had its ups and downs. The Recession of the early 1980s was followed by an economic boom that lasted until 1990. The short Recession of 1990 was followed by a decade of economic prosperity. Although there was a modest downturn in 2000-2001, that was replaced with continuing economic expansion through 2006. Then came the Great Recession, the worst period since World War II from a GDP perspective. In five out of six quarters from the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2009 the GDP actually went negative. After a decade of recovery, the Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipates that the economy will fully recover by 2020.16 Recent Growth Currently, the U.S. GDP is increasing at a good rate. See Figure 1. Although there has not been explosive growth, 17 the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has characterized the US economy as "entering into its boom phase of the business cycle." 18 The last two quarters mark the strongest back-to-back quarters of U.S. economic growth since 2014.19 According to the Department of Commerce, the national GDP grew at a rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018.20 While this was stronger than expected, this was down from 4.2 percent expansion in the previous quarter .21 Economists have explained that this was due to strong consumer spending, 22 a drop in unemployment, 23 and the results of the recent tax cuts, including business investment, the restocking of inventories ,24 and excessive borrowing by the Federal Government. 25 15 Kimberly Amadeo, What is the Ideal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance (Oct. 5, 2018), available at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-g_dp-growth-rate-3306017. 16 Id. 17 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone, CNN Business (May 1, 2018) available at: money.cnn.com/2018/05/01 /news/economy/us-economy-great-recession-recovery/index.html. 18 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3 at 2 (Sept. 2018). 19 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak, CFO Magazine (October 26, 2018), available at: ww2.cfo.com/the-econoMy/2018/10/u-s-adp-continues-hot-streak/. 20 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2018 (advance estimate) (Oct. 26, 2018). 1 Fred Imbert, The US economy grew at a 3. S% pace in the third quarter, faster than expected, CNBC (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/first-read-on-us-q3-2018-gross-domestic-product.html. 22 Id. 23 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone. 24 Sarah Foster, What Economists Are Saying Ahead of Third -Quarter U.S. GDP Data, Bloomberg (Oct. 25, 2018), available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-26/what-economists-are-saying-ahead-of-third-quarter-u- s-,gdn-data. 25 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone. 40 Figure 1: Percent Change in Quarterly GDP FREQ,w,� . P.—et a.r9c of Gros Domestic Product 7,5 50 2.5 d 00 U d 2 -2.5 0 a -50 -7.5 -100 2006 2007 2008 2079 Shaded areas indicate US --i- 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Amysls 211d 2015 2016 2017 2018 myt.red/g/Kki' Short -Term Projections The U.S. GDP is currently on a "hot streak"26 and will probably maintain 2.5-3 percent growth through 2019. However, it is difficult to predict future growth beyond that. In fact, forecasts by national economists for short-term growth are conflicted. While some predict multiple years of 3 percent growth ,27 the International Monetary Fund has projected a short-term growth of under 3 percent for 2018 and 2.5 percent for 2019.28 The Federal Reserve has a similar opinion, projecting that the GDP rate will decrease to 2.5% in 2019, 2% in 2020, and 1.8% in 2021.29 This, coupled with the threat of a major trade war with China, have led to fears of an economic slowdown sometime around 2020. In fact, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has said, `By mid -2020, we will be most vulnerable to the next recession." 30 Long -Term Projections It is even more difficult to project how the national GDP will fare over the next two decades. Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has said, "trying to forecast a period of prolonged weakness, or even a possible recession two years in advance is a fool's errand .... There's just too much time, too many potential variables ... to alter the course that far in the future." 31 Here, there are too many variables that can change. However, some things will occur with near - certainty. First, over the next two decades the economy will evolve. Some industries will diminish, some will expand, while still others will be created. Second, there will be some good years and some not -so good years. That is, things will not always be as good as they are now. Third, on average, there will probably be more years of healthy GDP growth than not. 26 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak. 27 Everett Rosenfeld, Mohamed EZ-Erian: The US economy looks good' for the `next couple of years at least.' 2s Id. 29 Harriet Torry, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.5% Rate in Third Quarter, Wall Street Journal U.S. Edition (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-grew-at-3-5-rate-in-third-quarter-1540557378. 30 Matt Egan, The US Economy Just Hit a Milestone. 31 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don't Hurt Em. 41 Conclusion Central Point must accept the reality of long-term GDP fluctuations when engaging in planning and decision-making. City leaders should not adopt the view that because things are good now that they will always be good. Instead, Central Point should have long-term plans that accept the fundamentals of the free market. ii. Employment What is Unemployment? Unemployment measures how many people in the country do not have jobs. Unemployment occurs when a person who is actively searching for a job is unable to find work .32 Like GDP, it is one of the main indicators of an economy's health. Of particular importance to economists is the "unemployment rate," which is calculated bey taking the number of unemployed people and dividing by the number of people employed. 3 Unlike GDP, the unemployment rate usually rises or falls after changing economic conditions, rather than anticipating an economic event. 34 Even a healthy economy will have a certain number of people unemployed: some will be between jobs and others will have been displaced by an evolving economy. Past Trends The United States has never had zero percent unemployment. The lowest rate ever recorded was 2.5 percent in mid -1953. It occurred because "the economy overheated during the Korean War. When this bubble burst, it kicked off the recession of 1953."35 Since Central Point published its first Economic Element, the U.S. unemployment rate has fluctuated in line with the economic booms and busts. The highest rates were 10.8 percent in 1982 and 10 percent at the height of the Great Recession in December 2009. In turn, the lowest rates were 3.8 percent in April 2000, and 4.4 percent in 2006 and 2007. Recent Trends Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to 3.7 percent, the lowest in nearly half a century.36 Figure 2 depicts the rapid increase in unemployment during the Great Recession and the slow recovery over the last decade. Unemployment has been declining and has finally fallen below pre -Recession levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics assumes that the economy will fully recover from the Great Recession by 2020 and that the labor force will return to a full unemployment rate of 4 to 5 percent. 37 32 What is Unemployment, Investopedia, available at: www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemplo3ment.ay#ixzz5VjPvdupQ. 33 Id. 34 What is Unemployment Rate, Investopedia, available at: www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp. 35 Kimberly Amadeo, Natural Rate of Unemployment, Its Components, and Recent Trends: Why Zero Unemployment Isn't as Good as It Sounds, The Balance (Sept. 26, 2018). 36 William Sprouse, U.S. GDP Continues Hot Streak. 37 Kimberly Amadeo, What is the Ideal GDP Growth Rate: How Fast Should the Economy Grow? The Balance (Oct. 5, 2018), available at: www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-ideal-gdp-arowth-rate-3306017. 42 Figure 2: National Unemployment Rate Since 1950 FRED—owin—tlnempby—m Rate 11 W 9 e E 7 d U m a 6 4 lV' Y 3 2 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19&1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Shaded— lndc US, reces 1— Source: OS. Bureauol lab., Slalsiks mytred/gllaCs Figure 3 depicts the strong relationship between unemployment and educational attainment. Those without a high school diploma have experienced unemployment rates that are almost double that of individuals with a college education. However, the rate of unemployment has been declining at a much faster pace over the last several years for those without a high school diploma than those with a college education. Overall, unemployment levels are good when measured on a national scale. Figure 3: National Unemployment Rates Since 2006 FRED—CWIII..Ura:mpleymerdRate D r�mp6yment Rate: College Cradrates: Bac he6r's Degree and Hlgher, 26 year. and wer — Hrcmpbyment Rate: less than. Hlgh School DIplcma,2S years and wer 20.0 LFM 15.0 SA 4 �r 2S OA 2006 207 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Shaded--d—le U.S.-- Source: 8S. Bureau of Labor Statlsiks 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 myLr.WgJKa.V Short -Term Projections The current unemployment rate is unsustainable .38 Both Moody's Analytics and Goldman Sachs's chief economists have forecasted that unemployment will continue to decline to 3 percent by early 2020.39 However, there are conflicting forecasts after that. Either the anticipated 2020 slowdown could prevent the economy from overheating and 38 Rebecca Rainey, Happy Jobs Day! Politico (Nov. 2, 2018), available at: www.politico.com/newsletters/morning- shift/2018/11/02/happy-jobs-day-399113. 39 Brian Cheung, Goldman Sachs warns the economy may be growing too quickly, Yahoo Finance (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: sports.yahoo.com/goldman-says-fed-needs-avoid-dangerous-overheating-154158689.html. Also see Martin Crutsinger, Fed likely to keep rates on hold and sketch a bright outlook, AP (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.wacotrib.com/news/an nation/fed-likelv-to-keen-rates-on-hold-and-sketch-a/article 693690-bf36-5557- 977d-51354fl 832a9.html. 43 temporarily stabilize the unemployment rate or the economy will slow too much, potentially destabilizing the employment rate, causing it to increase. 40 The Federal Reserve estimates that the normal unemployment rate (absent shocks to the economy) will rise back up to between 4-5 percent over the next five to six years. 41 While it is unclear whether unemployment will hold steady for a while longer or if it will begin rising again as soon as 2020, it is highly probable that unemployment will be going back up. Long -Term Projections Like forecasting GDP rates decades in advance, it is also difficult to project unemployment rates for the next two decades. However, it should be noted that the average unemployment rate for the U.S. between 1948 and 2018 was 5.77 percent, with a high of 10.8 percent and a record low of 2.5 percent. As a result, the average unemployment rate will probably stay in these bounds, close to the average. 42 Conclusion The unemployment rate is currently very low and will be going back up. A possible slowdown or recession around 2020 could either stabilize the rate or cause it to rise sharply. Ultimately, unemployment will probably stay around 3 percent for the next couple years and average 5 percent over the next two decades. iii. Inflation What is inflation? Inflation is the measure of how much the price of goods and services increases over time. 43 It means that things cost more and more instead of staying the same price. For example, if a gallon of milk has an inflation rate of 2 percent per year, then the price of milk will be 2 percent higher next year. Importantly, inflation is not primarily caused by the Federal Government printing too much money. Instead, inflation usually rises because buyers want products so much that they are willing to pay higher prices. If workers' wages do not keep pace with inflation, people have less buying power. The opposite of inflation is deflation, which is when things cost less than they did before. It is important to measure inflation because it shows if on average people are prospering or suffering under the current economy. Measuring Inflation There are different ways to measure inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the Consumer Price Index. 44 In the United States, the Federal Reserve aims for a target annual inflation rate of 2 percent .45 Past trends Figure 4 shows how inflation has occurred over the last seven decades. When Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the United States was undergoing a 40 Id. 41 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, What is the lowest level of unemployment that the U.S. economy can sustain? FAQs (Sept. 26, 2018), available at: www.federalreserve. og v/faqs/economy_14424.htm. 42 Trading Economics, United States Unemployment Rate, (Oct. 2018), available at: tradingeconomics.com/united- states/unemployment-rate. 43 Kimberly Amadeo, Why Inflation Is as "Violent as a Mugger" The Balance (Oct. 30, 2018), available at www.thebalance.com/what-is-inflation-how-it-s-measured-and-manag_ ed -3306170. 44 Id. 4s Id. 44 period of massive inflation. Inflation was over 7 percent in the 1970s and almost 6 percent in the 1980s. Since then, inflation has dropped to the 3 percent range in the 1990s and under 2 percent in the pre -Great Recession years. In 2009, inflation averaged -0.34 percent. However, inflation has been steadily climbing back up and, in the twelve months leading up to September 2018, the Consumer Price Index increased 2.3 percent. Figure 4: 1949-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers FRED—ConsumerPriceIndexfor All Wis nC.rraurn—AIIIt.ma 280 240 200 160 120 m 9 80 40 0 1950 1955 1940 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2066 2665 21010 2015 Shaded areas indicate U.S. —Fe- Source: U.S. Bureau of labor Statistics myf.redlgl lFSy Short -Term Projections At the moment, inflation is relatively benign. 46 The price of food goods is remaining steady while the cost of vehicles has fallen sharply. 47 Increases in the Consumer Price Index have been tied to increasing rental prices and the cost of home ownership.48 However, the Federal Reserve projects greater than 2 percent inflation over the next couple of years. See Figure 5, which shows the recent history of the Consumer Price Index. Figure 5: 2005-2018 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers FMC1,0— Coreumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Be ma 260 250 240 230 2211 d D 210 200 190 — 20136 2007 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Shaded areas indicate U.S. reresaio Source: US. Bureau of labor Slcd"afics rW.dlg/oKl 46 Jeffry Bartash, Inflation rises slowly in September in latest sign of easing price pressures, CPI shows, Market Watch (Oct. 11, 2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-costs-nudge-inflation-hi hg erin- sentember-cpi-shows-2018-10-11. 47 Id. 48 Id. 45 Long -Term Projections Although the current inflation rate is 2.28 percent, this is well below the 3.76 average since the end of WWII.49 As a result, in the long term, inflation will probably be moving back up to better approach the average rate. Conclusion In the long run, inflation will probably be increasing to better align with the averages of the last century. Unless wages also increase to meet inflation, it will become harder for individuals to purchase things. National Economic Crosscurrents: Primary Risks to the U.S. Economy The national economy appears healthy: GDP has a good growth forecast, unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century, inflation is moderate, and people appear confident in the economy. In addition to analyzing the traditional measurements of economic success, it is also important to consider strategic threats to the economy that have not yet sufficiently impacted the economic data. There are several things that put the economy at risk in both the short and long-term: trade wars, increasing income inequality, and the costs of health care and education. i. Trade Wars First among the dangers to the national economy is the simmering trade war. Although there has been little impact so far, the possibility of escalation could severely harm the national economy. Already, the US soy industry could be on the verge of collapse, with sales down 94 percent to China because of the retaliatory tariffs .50 Because soybeans are usually routed through the Pacific Northwest on their way to Asia, this could harm Oregon's economy. 51 Many other industries are also threatened, with duties on steel and aluminum costing U.S. companies about half a billion dollars in September 2018 alone. 52 An escalation in the trade wars (either by including more countries or a wider range of floods) would harm U.S. industries, transportation companies, and consumers across the board. 5 It would also lead to an increase in prices and inflation, requiring the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. 49 Jill Mislinski, A Long -Term Look at Inflation, Advisor Perspectives (Oct. 2018), available at: www.advisop2erspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/ 10/12/a -long -term -look -at -inflation. 50 Binyamin Appelbaum, Their Soybeans Piling Up, Farmers Hope Trade War Ends Before Beans Rot, New York Times (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.nyiimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html 51 Isis Almeida, Trump's Tariff War Scrambles Agricultural Trade Routes, Bloomberg Business (Nov. 1, 2018), available at: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-01/trump-s-tariff-war-scrambles-u-s-trade-routes-as-soy- ilp es -up 52 Stephanie Dhue and Yian Mui, American businesses paid 50% more in tariffs in September due to Trump's trade war, industry coalition says, CNBC (Nov. 5, 2018), available at: www.cnbc.com/2018/11/05/tariff-payments-u- 50percent-in-september-on-trump-trade-war-industry-group.html. 53 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 2018). 46 ii. Income Inequality Income inequality is a system -level issue for the United States economy.54 Over the last 20 years, the top 10 percent of income earners have received a nearly 200 percent increase in their overall median net worth, while the bottom 40 percent of earners have seen an actual decline in their net worth.55 This economic upheaval will have a major impact on government spending; an aging population that has less of an ability to support itself will require more help from entitlement and social programs. In the long term, it has the potential to negatively impact institutional investors' portfolios; increase financial and social system -level instability; damage output and slow economic growth; increase the Federal Deficit; and contribute to the tendencies toward protectionism and tariffs. 56 iii. Cost of Health Care The cost of health care for the American consumer is increasing. Since the City of Central Point first began developing its Comprehensive Plan, the U.S. has gone from spending 7.2 percent of its GDP on health care to almost 18 percent today. 57 See Figure 6. While total inflation is averaging around 2.3 percent, healthcare has increased 3.7 percent. What is more, the price of health care is rising faster than normal prices and companies are having to spend more on health insurance premiums. 58 As a result, employees are taking less money home with them. Figure 6: U.S. Health -Care Spending as a Share of GDP 18% 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 a 1963 1980 2000 2016 54 Bob Eccles, Investors Can And Should Address The Fundamental Causes Of Income Inequality, Forbes (Oct. 30, 2018) available at: www.forbes.com/sites/bobeccles/2018/10/30/investors-can-and-should-address-the-fundamental- causes-of-income-inequality/#46fD7c851 ed5. 55 Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause U.S. debt downgrade, Moody's says, MarketWatch (Oct. 27, 2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-inequality-could-cause-us-debt-downgrade-mood says -2018-10-12. 56 Steve Lydenberg, et al., New Report: Why and How Investors Can Respond to Income Inequality, The Investment Integration Project (2018) available at: www.tiiproject.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Why-and-How-Investors- Can-Respond-to-Income-Inequality_pdf (PDF warning). 57 Noah Smith, Efforts to slow the rise in the country's insanely expensive system have gone nowhere, Bloomberg (Oct. 29, 2018). 58 Id. 47 iv. Cost of Education The burden of student debt is likely to keep growing, which will dramatically inhibit the ability of younger generations to accumulate wealth.59 Outstanding student loans are already approaching $1.2 trillion.60 While inflation is around 2.3 percent, and health care costs are rising at 3.7 percent, education expenses are rising at an incredible rate of 5.2 percent. 61 In fact, if education inflation continues at this rate, the cost of tuition and fees for a four-year public university by 2028 will be between $65,590 for in-state public schools and $224,124 for private colleges.62 Many parents are burdened with saving large amounts of money to pay for their children's college education. Further, many young adults are already burdened with enormous student loan debts. Because parents and/or college graduates will need to spend enormous sums on tuition, and wages are not rising to meet this increase, people will either be prevented from getting a higher education or will be stuck paying off loans for a much longer period. In either case, that is bad news for the economy. 59 Andrea Riquier, Economic inequality could cause U.S. debt downgrade, Moody's says, MarketWatch (Oct. 27, 2018), available at: www.marketwatch.com/story/economic-inequality-could-cause-us-debt-downgrade-mood says -2018-10-12. 60 Mike Patton, The Cost of College: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow, Forbes (Nov. 19, 2018), available at: www.forbes.com/sites/mikcpatton/2015/ 11 /19/the-cost-of-college-yesterdgy-todgy-and-tomorrow/#556eff7O6O6O. 61 id. 62 id. 48 Section 3: State Economic Trends Oregon's economy is "hitting the sweet spot" and doing better than most other states.63 Wages and household incomes are rising, and workers are coming back into the labor market. 64 Further, because state revenues are higher than forecasted, Oregon taxpayers should expect to receive a bonus "kicker" on their income tax returns in 2019.65 While the state economy is doing well, it is also acting more volatile than the national economy.66 Josh Lehner, senior economist at the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, is concerned that while the economy is still growing, the pace of that growth is slowing down. Further, "We expect that pattern to continue—that growth tomorrow will be slower than growth today." 67 Panelists at the 15th Annual Oregon Economic Forum indicated that economic trouble for the state is likely still a few years away.68 Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank has interpreted the data as suggesting that the state economy is one or two years away from a recession .69 However, both McCain and Oregon Economic Forum director Tim Duy noted that a future recession may not be as bad as the Great Recession.70 Neighboring States Oregon is geographically well situated because its neighboring states to the north and south have very strong economies. Washington State's GDP has grown 3 percent over the last five years, the largest increase in the nation.71 It has the 14th largest GDP in the country at $439.4 billion in 2017.72 However, it also ranked 47th in the US by unemployment rate, which was 4.7 percent in June 2018.73 California has the largest economy in the United States. 74 If California was a country, it would 63 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, =VIII, No. 3, at 6 (Sept 2018). 64 Id. at 1. 65 Jade McDowell, Oregon's economy is strong, but how long will it last? Eastern Oregonian (Oct. 12, 2018), available at: www.eastoregonian.com/eo/local-news/20181012/ore,gons-economy-is-strong-but-how-long-will-it- last. 66 Id. 67 Id. 68 Anthony Macuk, Economists at Oregon forum: Don't expect an imminent recession, The Columbian (Oct. 17, 2018), available at: www.columbian.com/news/2018/oct/17/economists-at-oregon-forum-dont-expect-an-imminent- recession/. 69 Id. 70 Id. 71 Oregon Small Business Association Foundation, Oregon #12 in nation's Best State Economies, Oregon Business Report (Oct. 15, 2018). 72 Id. 73 Id. 74 Id. 49 have the fifth largest economy in the world.75 California's GDP grew almost as much as Washington's at 2.9 percent over the last five years. 76 Its GDP was eleven times that of Oregon's, at $2.4 trillion. While its unemployment rate is slightly above average at 4.2 percent, it has had a five year annual employment growth of 2.2 percent, which is the eighth best in the nation.77 Measuring the State Economy Like the national economy, there are similar ways to analyze Oregon's economy: GDP and employment are important, as infomration specific to Oregon's industries. i. Gross Domestic Product State GDP Like the national GDP, Oregon's GDP is a measure of how much the state produces in goods and services. Past Trends Since Central Point's first economic element in 1980, Oregon's economy has transitioned from being a resource-based economy (traditionally timber, fishing, and agriculture) to being a more mixed manufacturing and marketing economy (with an emphasis on high technology).78 At the same time, Oregon's GDP has more than doubled, from $100.8 billion in 1997 to $212.6 billion in 2017. See Figure 7 for Oregon's GDP increase. Figure 7: Oregon GDP 1997-2017 FRED,0 — ToG I Gross Gamest c Product for Oregon 240,000 220 000 200,000 6 0 180.000 O O C 0 160,000 140,000 100,000 1998 2000 2002 2004 20D6 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: OS. Bureau of Economic AM"Is mytredlg/UDS 75 Adam Nagourney and Matt Stevens, California Today: The State Faces Some Big Problems. Are We Ready? New York Times (Oct. 11, 2018), available at: www.nyiimes.com/2018/10/11/us/california-economy. 76 Oregon Small Business Association Foundation, Oregon #12 in nation's Best State Economies, Oregon Business Report (Oct. 15, 2018). 77 Id. 78 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book, available at: sos.oreeon. gov/blue-book/Paees/facts/economy-overview.aspx. 50 Recent growth In the the last five years, Oregon's has had slightly above average economic growth in comparison to other states: its GDP has grown 1.7 percent, the 16th largest increase in the country, ranking it 24th in the nation.79 Short-term projection Although there is the possibility that the state economy will continue booming, it is more likely that the state will experience a mild recession around 2020. See Figure 8 for three likely scenarios for the state economy. The Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast of September 2018 anticipates that under the mild recession scenario, the economy will contract by -1.8 percent in 2020 and -0.6 percent in 2021.80 Absent a recession, the state's Real Gross State Product is projected to be the seventh fastest among all states across the country in terms of growth with gains averaging 2.5 percent through 2023.81 Figure 8: Short -Term Economic Scenarios for Oregon 82 Alternative Scenarios Sep 2018 2.1 0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 2000 Total Nonfarm Employment 2005 2010 2015 2020 Long-term projection Even if there is a recession in the coming years, the economy should recover and continue to do well into the long-term. Conclusion Like the national economy, the state economy should remain healthy over the next year. However, there is a strong potential that a national recession will spill over into Oregon, damaging the state economy and harming Oregon residents. ii. Employment Overview Oregon has more than two million people in its labor force. 83 Through 2023, the state economy's total employment is expected to be the eighth strongest among all the states at a rate of 1.3 percent. 84 Past Trends Nearly every state industry was affected by the Great Recession but by May 2016, 79 Id. 80 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 16 (Sept 2018). 81 Id. at 21. 82 Id. 83 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book. 84 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 21 (Sept 2018). 51 2018 2019 2020 2021 Optimistic Employment Baseline Baseline 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% Optimistic 2.6% 4.1% 1.8% 0.3% Mild Ree. Mild Recession 2.2% 0.7% -1.8% -0.6% Severe Recession 2.1% -2.6% -4.3% 0.8% Severe Rec. Personal Income Baseline 5.1% 6.0% 5.2% 4.6% Optimistic 6.5% 9.1% 6.1% 4.4% Mild Recession 5.1% 4.7% 2.3% 4.5% Severe Recession 5.1% 1.2% -0.9% 5.9% Long-term projection Even if there is a recession in the coming years, the economy should recover and continue to do well into the long-term. Conclusion Like the national economy, the state economy should remain healthy over the next year. However, there is a strong potential that a national recession will spill over into Oregon, damaging the state economy and harming Oregon residents. ii. Employment Overview Oregon has more than two million people in its labor force. 83 Through 2023, the state economy's total employment is expected to be the eighth strongest among all the states at a rate of 1.3 percent. 84 Past Trends Nearly every state industry was affected by the Great Recession but by May 2016, 79 Id. 80 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 16 (Sept 2018). 81 Id. at 21. 82 Id. 83 Oregon Secretary of State, Oregon Facts, Oregon Blue Book: Almanac & Fact Book. 84 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 21 (Sept 2018). 51 Oregon had more jobs than it had when the recession began. 85 See Figure 9, which shows how the state unemployment rate has changed depending on the national economic environment. Figure 9: Oregon's Unemployment Rate FWDO — UnempbymerH Rate inOregon 12 Q 10 3 1980 1485 1990 1995 2000 2005 21310 2015 Shaded areas indfcafe U.S. recessioru Source: 115. Bureau of Labor Slalsllcs myf..dJg/Ww Recent trends Currently, Oregon's unemployment number is under what is historically considered full employment for the state. 86 However, for the last three years, the unemployment rate has been extremely volatile; a few months of extreme declines have been followed by months of huge increases. 87 However, over the last year the Oregon unemployment rate has stopped declining. 88 Currently, it is hovering around 4 percent. Short-term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects that the Oregon unemployment rate will remain steady for the near future because this job growth rate now matches population and labor force gains.89 However, if there is a severe recession in the near - future, unemployment may spike up to 10 percent. 90 Long-term projections The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis projects a "slightly stronger economic outlook" in 2025 and beyond. 91 Compared to the rest of the country, Oregon's employment numbers should fare well. Total employment could be the eighth strongest in the nation at 1.3 percent, while manufacturing employment could be the seventh fastest in the country at 1.1 percent. 92 Conclusion Based on the economic reports created by the oregon Office of Economic Analysis, the Oregon unemployment rate should remain steady for the near future. However, depending on the strength of the anticipated 2020 slowdown, this could change dramatically. If as Id. 86 Id. at 10. 87 Id. 88 Id. 89 Id. 90 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, =VIII, No. 3, at 20 (Sept 2018). 91 Id. at 15. 92 Id. at 21. 52 Oregon's economy is lucky enough to avoid being harmed by the national economy, the unemployment rate should continue to decrease to near -record levels. iii. Industry Strengths Another way to understand the state economy is to see how the state's population is employed. Figure 10 list the most common jobs in Oregon, as well as the normal wages. Location Quotient ("LQ") shows the relative strength of that occupation in Oregon's economy. For example, if an LQ is greater than one it indicates that the concentration is greater in Oregon than the national average. If it is less than one, it indicates that Oregon has a lower concentration than on average. Figure 10: Oregon Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates from May 201693 Occupation title Employment Employment LQ Median I $15.73 1.2 per 1,000 jobs I hourly wage All Occupations 1,790,940 1000 1 I $18.26 Office and Administrative Support 265,770 148.399 0.95 1.23 $16.96 Sales and Related 181,760 101.488 0.98 58.031 $13.45 Food Preparation and Serving 170,710 95.32 1.03 $57,450 I $10.98 Related Transportation and Material Moving Production 1 Management Education, Training, and Library Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Business and Financial Operations Construction and Extraction Personal Care and Service Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Retail Salespersons Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Computer and Mathematical Occupations Healthcare Support Cashiers L Architecture and Engineering Community and Social Service Registered Nurses Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Fast Food Office Clerks, General Waiters and Waitresses Protective Service Annual mean wage $49,710 $37,430 $37,980 $25,190 119,650 166,806 I $29.96 10.96 I $15.73 1.2 I $36,550 113,230 163,226 10.97 I $16.47 I $37,460 110,970 61.96 1.23 $42.91 $102,990 103,930 58.031 0.94 $23.01 $57,450 I 98,610 55.061 0.93 $38.16 $90,100 83,790 46.788 72,580 40.526 69,360 38.726 61,940 34.587 61,610 34.402 55,400 30.931 50,900 28.419 48,130 45,730 40,820 35,930 35,220 34,950 33,500 33,100 32,740 26.877 25.535 22.795 20.061 19.667 19.518 18.707 18.48 18.283 0.9 I $29.96 1.02 $22.45 1.2 $11.98 0.89 $21.21 1.07 1 $11.85 0.98 1 $12.77 0.96 0.93 1.01 1.28 1.39 0.97 0.8 0.89 1.01 0.76 $37.72 $16.24 $11.03 $37.31 $20.68 $42.32 $10.55 $15.90 $10.62 $22.29 $68,530 $50,820 $27,900 $47,190 $28,890 $29,350 $82,190 $35,110 $24,640 $86,810 $46,490 $87,000 $22,930 $34,470 $26,240 $50,010 93 Bureau of Labor and Statistics, May 2016 State Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates Oregon, Department of Labor (May 2016), available at: www.bls.gov/oes/2016/may/oes_or.htm#00-0000. 53 The state agency Business Oregon lists six target industries for the state economy: Forestry & Wood Products, Advanced Manufacturing, High Technology, Food & Beverage Services, Business Services, and Outdoor Gear & Apparel. 94 Oregon continues to be a leader in forestry and agriculture. While the Oregon economy is much more diverse than it was thirty years ago, forestry and agriculture still exhibit employment that is concentrated at many times the national average. However, the timber industry is under pressure from both the market and federal regulations, and so is projected to grow slowly. 95 Oregon's manufacturing industry is weighted towards semiconductors and wood products relative to the nation, which mostly concentrates on autos and aerospace. 96 Although semiconductors and wood products have been historically strong, they are expected to grow more slowly in the future. 97 The state's primary metal manufacturing is concentrated as a result of the continued operation of Oregon's aluminum industry. The computer and electronic product manufacturing industries are strong due to the presence of Intel and Tektronix in the Portland area. Non -store retailers like Harry & David contribute to the strength in that industry sector. Beverage manufacturing comes from the growing wine and craft beer industries in Oregon. Professional and Technical Services is a fast-growing, emerging industry in Oregon. 98 It includes businesses who are using their expertise to help businesses around the world to grow.99 Management and technical consulting is the largest industry in this group, followed by engineering services and advertising, public relations, and related services. loo For example, CH2M was founded in Corvallis and now employs over 26,000 employees worldwide. 101 While Oregon is not known as a home for Fortune 500 companies, it does have Nike, a world - leader in shoes and athletic apparel. The City of Portland is also the home of Columbia Sportswear, which specializes in the target industry of Outdoor Gear & Apparel. The Office of Economic Analysis has ranked eleven industries as doing exceptionally well. Private sector food manufacturing, education, and health care have never suffered strong losses from a recession. 102 Further, retail employment, wholesale, transportation, warehousing and utilities, and construction have surpassed their pre -recession levels and are at all time highs. 103 94 Business Oregon, Business Oregon's Target Industry Groups, available at: www.oregon4biz.com/Oreaon- Business/Industries/. 95 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at 17 (Nov. 2018). 96 Id. 97 Id. 98 Business Oregon, Business Oregon's Target industry Groups, available at www.oregon4biz.com/Oregon- Business/Industries/. 99 Id. 100 Id 101 Id. 102 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 3, at 8 (Sep. 2018). 103 Id. 54 State Economic Crosscurrents: Primary Risks to Oregon's Economy The state economy appears healthy: GDP is good, unemployment is low, and Oregon's industries are strong and growing. However, the state economy is at risk: the national economy could experience a small recession that could drag down the state economy, trade wars threaten the state's economic vitality, there is a housing crisis, and wildfires and smoke are harming the tourism industry. i. The National Economy Because of the potential for an economic slowdown around 2020, it is important to analyze the impacts that the last national recessions had on the Oregon economy. In fact, Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis forecasts that a future recession would be like the 1990s recession, 104 so it is important to review how that particular economic event effected the state economy. The 1990s recession was relatively mild on the national economy.105 In the 1990s, Oregon "lost just as many jobs as the US did." 106 However, many consumer service sectors and industries actually outperformed the US economy. 107 This included manufacturing, construction, services, and retail. Nevertheless, the data indicates that there were big manufacturing job losses, with less losses in the service sectors. 108 As a result, if there is a recession around 2020 and it appears to be similar to the 1990s recession, Oregon should brace itself for losses in the manufacturing industry, but for the industry to be able to hunker down and withstand a short economic storm. ii. Trade Wars Oregon is particularly susceptible to harm from a trade war because Oregon trades more with foreign nations than most other states.109 As a result, should China and Canada retaliate against US trade tariffs, Oregon's economy could be dealt a particularly strong blow.110 According to economist Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, the impact of tariffs from China and Canada to Oregon's economy could be about $870 million."' It has the potential to impact the state's agriculture industry, aluminum scrap exporters, various consumer goods, and distillery companies. 112 If there is continued escalation and if global supply chains are disrupted, "it will be a much bigger economic problem." 113 104 Josh Lehner, Hammer Don't Hurt `Em, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (Oct. 26, 2018), available at: oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2018/10/26/hammer-dont-hurt-em/. 105 Id 106 Id 107 Id. 108 Id. 109 Kathleen McLaughlin, Tariff hikes hit Oregon products, The Bend Bulletin (June 19, 2018), available at: www.bendbulletin.com/business/6322636-15 1/tariff-hikes-from-china-canada-hit-oregon-products. 1101d. 111 Id 112 Id. 113 Id 55 iii. Housing Affordability Oregon is in a housing crisis. Since Central Point adopted its first Economic Element in 1980, housing prices in Oregon have risen by 315%, making it 4th in the nation for housing price increases. 114 A major issue is that Oregon is not building enough housing units to keep pace with the population increase. According to the Oregon Home Builders Association Oregon needs 25,000 new units every year, but only 15,000 are being constructed. 115 Low housing supply has led to rising rental costs and home prices. This, plus a very low rental vacancy rate, have contributed to an affordable housing crisis across the state. 116 According to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, Oregon is the 3rd most unaffordable rental market in the nation. 117 Further, according to the Oregon Housing and Community Services Director Margaret Van Vliet, the state has 130,000 extremely low-income households but only 20,000 housing units are affordable for those households. 118 This crisis is straining the state economy because housing is a necessary expenditure. If 55 percent of renters in Oregon must pay more than 30 percent of their income to housing,119 then Oregon consumers will have less purchasing power. Further, if there is not enough housing, Oregon will have fewer workers and will be less able to entice target industries to relocate. iv. Wildfires and Smoke Wildfires and smoke have been negatively impacting the Oregon economy. 120 The last two years have had record levels of unhealthy air. According to the Oregon Department of Forestry's 2018 fire statistics 70,685 of the acres that it protects burned as of September 2018, which is 53 percent higher than the 10 -year average. A wildfire impact study released by Travel Oregon in July 2018 found that the state lost $51.5 million in visitor spending due to the 2017 wildfires. 121 According to the study, Josephine County lost $680,000 and Jackson County lost $2.8 million in spending because of the fires. Those losses were mostly in the food service and accommodation industries. 122 The smoke also cost the Oregon Shakespeare Festival in Ashland about $2 million as a result of cancelling outdoor performances. 123 114 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon's Housing Crisis, available at: habitatore og norg/affiliates/oregons-housin -cg risis/ 115 Id 16 Vickie Aldous, Merkley: Oregon is in a housing crisis, Medford Mail Tribune (March 30, 2018), available at: mailtribune.com/news/top-stories/merkley-oregon-is-in-a-housin -c,� risis. 117 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon's Housing Crisis. 118 Vickie Aldous, Merkley: Oregon is in a housing crisis. 119 Habitat for Humanity, Oregon's Housing Crisis. 120 KATU Staff, Wildfires, smoke taking its toll on Oregon tourism, KATU (Aug. 14, 2018), available at: katu. com/news/local/wildfires-smoke-taking-its-toll-on-oregon-tourism. 121 Saphara Harrel, The News -Review (Sep. 17, 2018), available at: www.nrtodgy. com/news/environment/wildfires/wildfires-impact-the-health-economy-of-southem- oregon/article_f34eff89-4681-5da3-9714-ada8b91 a8cd9.html. 122 Id. 123 Peter Libbey, Wildfire Smoke Disrupts Oregon Shakespeare Festival, New York Times (Aug. 24, 2018), available at: www.g Aimes.com/2018/08/24/theater/oregon-shakespeare-festival-wildfire-smoke.html. 56 Section 4: Economic Trends in Southern Oregon Overview Central Point is located in Jackson County and near Josephine County. Both counties effect Central Point's economy and are often treated as a single region for economic data. Jackson County 124 It has a population of 219,270 people as of May 2018,125 which accounts for approximately 5 percent of Oregon's population. 126 Between 2000 and 2010, it experienced a 1.1 percent increase in population 127 and a 5.26 percent increase in median household income, from $44,028 to $46,343.1 8 Its median age is 42.9. Southern Oregon The Office of Economic Analysis has stated that Southern Oregon was hit hard bey the Great Recession and that the recovery has been more difficult than other parts of the state.1 9 However, local job growth has returned, and poverty rates are falling. While Jackson County has historic highs in wage growth and employment rates, Josephine County is still in a bad position, having yet to regain its losses from the last recession. 130 i. Gross Domestic Product Jackson County had the 103rd fastest growth in GDP between 2016 and 2017 among the nation's 384 metropolitan areas (2.6 percent).131 This is compared to the U.S. metropolitan areas growing by an average of 2.1 percent during the same time frame. 132 The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has projected that the county had a GDP of $8,590,000,000 for 2017.133 Industries in Jackson County that boosted GDP growth were education and health services; professional and business services; trade; and transportation, warehousing, and utilities. 134 See Figure 11. Those industries that damaged GDP growth were other services and information.135 124 Officially labeled "Medford OR (MSA)" (the Medford, Oregon Metropolitan Statistical Area). 125 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents 8 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report _Final.pdf (PDF warning). 126 210,916/4,142.000 = 5.09% 127 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents 8 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edl /prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report _Final.pdf (PDF warning). lzs Medford, OR Metro Area, Data USA, available at: https:Hdatausa.io/profile/geo/medford-or-metro-area/#intro. 129 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, XXXVIII, No. 4, at 20 (Nov. 2018). 130 Id 131 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017, QualityInfo (Sept. 27, 2018), available at: www.qualiiyinfo.org/-/medford-and- rg ants-pass-g_dp-zrowth-outpace-u-s-average-in-2017. 132 Id. 133 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: www.bea.gov/system/files/2018-09/g_dp_metro0918_O.pdf (PDF warning). 134 Id. 135 Id 57 Figure 11: Changes to Jackson County's GDP 136 Medford MSA (Jackson County) Industry Contribution to GDP Growth Education and health services Professional and business services Trade Transportation and utilities Construction Leisure and hospitality Natural resources and mining Nondurable -goods manufacturing Durable goods manufacturing Financial activities Government Other services Information !•ri�rxr)t:ri�rl��rl�rI��ltr: Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (Percentage Points) The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has projected that Josephine County had a GDP of $2,478,000,000 for 2017.137 Incredibly, this ranked it 31St in the nation in terms of fastest growth in GDP for 2017.138 During that time, the GDP grew at 4.3 percent. Figure 12: Changes to Josephine County's GDP 139 Grants Pass MSA (Josephine County) Industry Contribution to GDP Growth Financial activities Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Trade Construction Transportation and utilities Natural resources and mining Durable -goods manufacturing Nondurable -goods manufacturing Government Information Other services Professional and business services - -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 I.5 2.0 Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (Percentage Points) In Josephine County, 40 percent of GDP growth came from finance, insurance, and real estate. 140 136 Guy Tatter, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017. 137 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, New Release: Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan Area, 2017 (Sep. 18, 2018), available at: www.bea.gov/system/files/2018-09/g_dp_metro0918_O.pdf (PDF warning). 138 Id. 139 Guy Tauer, Medford and Grants Pass GDP Growth Outpace U.S. Average in 2017. 140 Id. 58 Other industries that are strong are trade, education and health services (like in Jackson County), and leisure and hospitality. See Figure 12. Professional and business services, information, and other services reduced the GDP. Conclusion Southern Oregon's economy is growing at a good pace. Both Jackson and Josephine County are well ranked nationally in terms of the rate of economic growth. However, they both have a long way to go to recover from the losses they suffered in the Great Recession. ii. Employment Recent Trends Southern Oregon was recently ranked in the top 30 job markets in the United States based on job growth over the last five years. 141 USA Today ranked the nearby City of Medford as #28 in the nation, saying: Medford is one of several rapidly growing cities in Oregon adding jobs at a faster pace than almost anywhere else in the country. Due in large part to the metro area's education and health services industry, there are over 13,000 more jobs in Medford today than there were in 2013, a 15.4 percent increase.142 USA Today also said that Grants Pass had the largest drop in unemployment in the nation between 2013 and 2018, ranking it as the 181h best job growth economy in the nation.' 43 Job growth was driven by the education and health services industry, which added 1,700 out of the 5,000 new jobs. 144 Figure 13: Jackson County Unemployment Rate FMII,,0— Unemployment Rate in Medford, OR jMSA� 14 0 S 19 12 11 10 4 1942 1994 1996 1948 2000 2002 2004 2006 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions Source: u5. Bureau of Labor Stalistics myf rnd/glly9v 141 Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Report-Medford-Grants-Pass-Among-Top-US-Job-Markets-500405392.html. 142 Samuel Stebbins, 31 cities adding the most jobs as the US economy grows, USA Today (Nov. 12, 2018), available at: www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/11/12/us-economy-grows-cities-adding most- jobs/38319445/. 143 Id. 144 Id. 59 Despite this new growth, Jackson County's unemployment rate is still higher than the national average. 145 In fact, both Jackson and Josephine County had the hi�hest unemployment rates out of all the cities in the USA Today's list of best local economies. 14 However, when compared to other regions in Oregon, Jackson County has one of the lowest unemployment rates at 4.4 percent. 147 See Figure 13. Neighboring Josephine County is at 5.5 percent while Klamath County is at 5.8 percent. 148 Conclusion The Southern Oregon economy is growing at a very good rate. While it still needs to catch up to the rest of the nation, 149 if it is able to avoid being harmed too much by the next economic slowdown, it should be able to make up its past losses. iii. Housing Overview For the last few years the local housing market has been booming. However, it now appears to be slowing down. This is a major concern for the Southern Oregon economy because it may inhibit construction of much-needed housing units and continue to drive up the price of rent. Recent trends Between 2000 and 2010, the total number of housing units in Jackson County increased rapidly. 150 Housing units increased by 20.1 percent, with 2,130 units in Central Point alone (almost half of Medford's growth of 5,000 units).151 In 2018 home prices in Jackson Country increased by an average of $12,000 in comparison to 2017, a slower rate than previous years. 52 Conclusion Southern Oregon is one of the last affordable housing areas in the West Coast. 153 This could encourage Californians to relocate and contribute to the local economy. 154 However, new residents from wealthier states could encourage local builders to concentrate on constructing expensive homes and not affordable housing. This could price out younger people, such as Millennials, and portions of the working class from the region. 145 Leah Thompson, Southern Oregon's Unemployment Rates are Higher than Country's Average, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 4, 2018), available at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Southern-Ore,gons-Unemployment-Rates-are-Higher- than-Countrys-Average-499561461.html. 146 Jamie Parfitt, Report: Medford, Grants Pass among top us job markets, Newswatch 12 (Nov. 13, 2018), available at: www.kdrv.com/content/news/Report-Medford-Grants-Pass-Among-Top-US-Job-Markets-500405392.html. 147 Id. 148 Id. 149 Id. 150 population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents 17 (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edl /prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report _Final.pdf (PDF warning). 151 Matt Jordan, Housing market `softening' in Jackson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at: kobi5. com/news/local-news/housing-market-softening-in-j ackson-county-89532/. 152 Matt Jordan, Housing market `softening' in Jackson County, NBC 5 (Nov. 9, 2018), available at kobi5. com/news/local-news/housing-market-softening-in-j ackson-county-89532/. 153 Greg Stiles, Housing prices will attract outsiders, Medford Mail Tribune (Oct. 15, 2018), available at: mailtribune.com/business/housing:prices-will-attract-outsiders. 154 Id. 60 Section 5: The City of Central Point's Trends Introduction Central Point has unique economic and social trends when compared to the Southern Oregon region. Its population is fast-growing, relatively young, and its workers generally commute short distances to work. Measuring the City's Trends i. Commuting Patterns Introduction The Department of Land Conservation & Development (DLCD) recommends analyzing commute patterns as one of the ways to determine land use needs. Central Point exhibits a somewhat unique combination of commuting patterns. See Figure 14. Typically, cities that have a low percentage of its residents working within the city also have relatively high commute times. But that is not the case for Central Point, which has only 21 percent of its residence working outside the city. Those residents have much shorter commute times when compared to both the national and state averages for workers commuting outside their cities. This is probably because a large amount of Central Point residents work in north Medford. In many cases this is only a few blocks from where they live. Many may also work in White City, which can be accessed by roads with little congestion, such as Interstate 5 or Table Rock Road. Figure 14: Central Point Resident Commuting Patterns." Worker Travel Information (workers 16 years and over) Oregon Jackson County Central Point Means of Transportation to Work Car, truck, or van 82.7% 86.5% 93.8% Drove alone 72.0% 76.8% 86.0% Carpooled 10.8% 9.7% 7.8% Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 4.2% 0.9% 1.5%156 Walked 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% Bicycle 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% Worked at home 6.1% 6.7% 2.7% Travel Time to Work Less than 10 minutes F 17.5% 20.6% 21.8% 10 to 14 minutes 16.9% 22.2% 29.7% 155 U.S. Bureau of the Census. 156 The number of residents using public transportation was listed as 0.0% in the data set. However, that is improbable. Other Census Bureau data lists it as 1.5% and so that is included here. See U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5 - year Estimate, DataUSA (2016), available at: datausa.io/profile/geo/central-point-or/. 61 15 to 19 minutes 16.5% 19.3% 24.7% 20 to 24 minutes 15.0% 15.2% 11.2% 25 to 29 minutes 5.9% 5.0% 3.4% 30 to 34 minutes 11.9% 8.8% 5.5% 35 to 44 minutes 5.4% 3.3% 1.8% 45 to 59 minutes 5.6% 2.9% 0.4% 60 or more minutes 5.3% 2.7% 1.6% Mean travel time to work (minutes) 22.1 18.4 14.8 Place of Work Worked in state of residence 97.8% 98.8% 99.5% Worked in county of residence 77.5% 94.9% 97.7% Worked outside county of residence 20.3% 3.9% 1.8% Worked outside state of residence 2.2% 1.2% 0.5% Living in a place 79.4% 74.3% 100.0% Worked in place of residence 38.6% 37.8% 21.0% Worked outside place of residence 40.8% 36.5% 79.0% Not living in a place 20.6% 25.7% 0.0% ii. Local Population Forecast Introduction In addition to reviewing commuting patterns and economic trends, it is also important to review trends related to population growth. The DLCD recommends analyzing population because it is one of the best means to determine Central Point's future land demand. 157 While economic trends are subject to rapid changes without much warning, population growth is much easier to predict. This section contains a short analysis of population trends as of 2019. For a more comprehensive analysis, see the Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039). Past Trends Since Central Point published its first Economic Element, Jackson County's total population has grown from roughly 114,000 to 219,270 people.158 See Figure 15. The high growth rates of the 1970s were a result of relative economic prosperity while the decline in the 1980s was a result of challenging economic conditions. 159 During the 1990s, the county's growth rates increased again at first but then declined later in the decade. Jackson County's total population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of just over 1 percent. 157 Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, Tips for Conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (March 2008). 158 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Coordinated Population Forecast: 2018 through 2068 (Jackson County) (June 2018) at 8-9. 159 Id 62 Figure 15 - D F N V R Q & R XycQr Mtet\vaSs (79'H -2W7#0 O 3 R S X O D W L R Q 250,000 -------------------------------------- ----------- 4,0% 3.5% t7 x200,000 --------- ---------------------------------- -- a 3,0% y -150,000 ----------- ------------- -- 2,590 X 27 2,0% taxa a 100,000- - - - - - - - - - - m 1,59'4 �v c 1.0% a 50,000 - - - - - - - - - - tw 0,5% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2810 2017 �Pupulatlon 113,850 133,000 136,445 145,389 167,330 181,269 192,054 203,205 216,980 _AAGR 3.891 3.2% 0.59f 1.4% 2.7% 1.6% 1.291 1 1.1% 8.991 Sources; U.S. Census Bureau, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 Censuses; Population Research Center (PRq, July 1stAnnual Estimates 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2017. Central Point posted a growth rate higher than that of Jackson County, at 2.9 percent from 2000- 2010.161 That makes it the second fastest growing area in the Rogue Valley, just after Eagle Point's rate of 5.6 percent. 162 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101 people,163 ranking behind Medford's 82,566 people and just behind the City of Ashland's 21,501 people. 164 Reasons for Increase The county's positive population growth has largely been the result of net immigration. 165 The aging population has led to an increase in deaths and local women have postponed having children, which has resulted in birth stagnation. As a result, without immigration, Southern Oregon would be experiencing a "natural decrease" in population. Long-term projections Jackson County is likely to grow at a fast pace in the short-term. 166 The Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) forecasts that Jackson County's will grow from 219,270 people to 264,951 people by 2039.167 See Figure 16. 160 Id. at 10. 161 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edl /prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report _Final.pdf (PDF warning). 162 Id. 163 See City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12. 164 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018 through 2068. Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018), available at: www.pdx.edu/prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_ Report_Final.pdf (PDF warning)at 9. 165 Id 166 Id 167 City of Central Point, Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13. 63 According to the Population Research Center at Portland State University, the City of Central Point is expected to capture a much larger share of Jackson County's future population than it has in the past. 168 Central Point is expected to have a short-term growth rate of 1.5 percent, 169 and by 2039, Central Point will have 26,317 people, making it larger than the City of Ashland. 170 This also means that approximately 7 percent of the county population will live in Central Point. 171 Figure 16: Population Growth Projections for City of Central Point and Jackson County 172 Figur Year Central Point Jackson County 2019 19,101 219,270 2020 19,714 235,066 2025 21,035 246,611 2030 22,920 257,256 2035 24,815 263,006 2039 Change: 2019 to 2039 26,317 7,216 264,951 45,681 e 17: Central Point Population Pyramid"' Central Point 2010 Population Pyramid 95+ years 90 to 94 years 85 to 89 years 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years ■ Female 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years ■ Male 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years -800 -600 400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 168 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region l Documents (May 2018). 169 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13. 170 Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 1 Documents (May 2018)at 47. 171 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 12. 172 Population & Demographics Element (2019-2039) at 13, Table 1. 173 See City of Central Point Economic Element 2013-2033. 64 The population pyramid for Central Point, see Figure 17, depicts the typical shape for a town without a university. The "gap" in residents aged 20-24 exists in most non -university towns because this is the age where young adults leave to attend college or obtain employment elsewhere. Although this data will be less valuable after the 2020 census, it still helps to predict what types of services and land use Central Point needs to offer. The City's population is less top-heavy than either the nation or the county because fewer people aged 65 or older live in Central Point. Although the Southern Oregon region experiences high levels of retirees relocating to the area, this does not appear to be the case in Central Point. However, the ongoing Twin Creeks project may alter future data. Because of the relative youth of the population, Central Point has a large percentage of families with working -aged individuals aged 30-50 and their children under the age of 14. Proportionally, this means that Central Point has higher levels of working -age individuals than the national population. This shows that Central Point has a strong labor base, and that there will continue to be a strong demand for education services. Conclusion Central Point must prepare to have its population grow by almost 38% over the next 20 years. Should the population trends continue, the City must also be prepared to house a population younger than a typical non -university town. iii. Regional Employment Forecast Introduction The DLCD also recommends analyzing job growth forecasts as a means to determine a city's future land use needs. 174 The employment forecast data used in this section was generated by the Research Division at the Oregon Employment Department through 2027. This is the best region -specific data currently available. The following analysis correlates to both population growth per the City of Central Point Population & Demographics Element (2019) and the anticipated expansion of specific occupations and industries. The subsequent conclusions assume that the forecasted rates of 2017- 2027 will remain constant through 2039. Growth According to Guy Tauer, the Regional Economist for Jackson and Josephine counties, between 2017 and 2027, 14,111 new jobs will open in the "Rogue Valley region"175 due to population growth. 176 In addition, there will be 148,807 job openings to replace workers who leave the occupation or the workforce. 177 A worker who leaves a job and then is hired to do the same job at another establishment would not be counted as a replacement opening. 178 174 Economic Development Planning Team, Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development, Tips for Conducting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (March 2008). 175 Defined as Jackson and Josephine Counties. 176 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Occupation 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment Department (July 9, 2018), available at: www.qualiiyinfo.or -/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by- occupation-2017-2027. 177 Id. 178 Id. 65 Figure 18: Rogue Valley Occupational Employment Change, 2017-2027179 Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Professional and Related Transportation and Material Moving Health Care Management, Business, and Financial Production Construction and Extraction Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Installation, Maintenance, and Repair ■ Replacement Job Openings ■ Growth Job Openings 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 5c, 000 Service Industry The service industry had the largest share of total jobs in 2017. See Figure 18 for both industry -specific job openings and job growth. The service industry is also expected to add the most new jobs in Jackson County and have the greatest number of total openings by 2027.180 This industry includes food preparation, personal care services, building maintenance, ground keeping, and protective service occupations. 181 This means that Central Point will need to dedicate more lands to retail use. Sales and Related Industries After the service industry, the greatest total openings will be in V D O H V D Q G U H O D W H G L Q G X V W U L H V 21,800 total openings.lsz These have growth rates of 6.7 percent and 5.3 percent. 83 This low growth forecast is probably a result of labor-saving technologies like self -checkout stations, automated inventory systems, and online retail sales. 184 This means that Central Point will need to dedicate additional lands to office use. Health Care The health care and social assistance industries currently account for approximately one out of six jobs in the Rogue Valley. 185 In fact, the area's current employment is concentrated in this industry with over 20,830 employees. Through 2027, health care is 179 Id. iso Id. 181 Id. 182 Id. 183 Id. iso Id. 185 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment Department (July 3, 2018), available at: www.gualityinfo.or-/ro,gue-valley-employment-projections-by-industry- 2017-2027. 66 expected t RK D Y H W K H P R V W 18EeRFiFure 2(Rfof inEIusQy-L Q J V specific employment growth. This means that health care occupations will continue to grow by approximately 17.7 percent. 187 This is because a growing and aging population will demand more health care services, which will in turn create more employment opportunities in this recession -resistant industry. 188 Although health care in the Rogue Valley is mostly concentrated in Medford, given that it has both Asante Rogue Regional Medical Center and Providence Medford Medical Center, Central Point has begun to make inroads into the industry with the Providence Medical Plaza on North Pacific Highway. This indicates that Central Point may want to dedicate more land to office space use in order to house more health care workers. Construction Over the decade, construction is expected to have the fastest job growth rate in the Rogue Valley, up by 25 percent. This is because housing construction, while still below pre -Great Recession levels, is picking back up.189 As a result, Central Point may need more industrial -zoned land for construction shops, warehouses, machinery storage, and company offices. Professional & Management, Business, and Financial The two industries of Professional and Related services and Management, Business, and Financial services will both be growing at a healthy rate. Professional and related occupations will have a growth rate of 10 percent. As a result, Central Point will want to dedicate a good amount of its employment lands for office space use. 186 Id. 187 Id. 188 id. 189 id. 67 Figure 19: Rogue Valley Industry Employment Change, 2017-2027190 Health care and social assistance Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services Construction Retail trade Manufacturing Natural resources and mining Local government Other services and private households Transportation, warehousing, and utilities Financial activities Private educational services Federal government State government Wholesale trade Information 0 500 1,000 1.500 2,006 2.500 3,000 3.560 4,006 Manufacturing and retail Manufacturing and retail trade are still expected to add jobs by 2027, just under 1,000 for both industries. 191 See Figure 20 for industry employment changes. However, the possibility of an economic slowdown in these sectors should be taken into consideration when allocating land. Leisure and hospitality About one in eleven jobs in the Rogue Valley were in leisure and hospitality in 2017.192 This tourism- reliant sector is forecast to add 1,930 jobs between 2017 and 2027.193 However, Central Point should consider the devastating effects that wildfires and smoke could have on the industry in the near -future. 190 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Employment Projections by Industry 2017-2027, State of Oregon Employment Department (July 3, 2018), available at: www.qualiiyinfo.or -/rogue-valley-employment-projections-by-industry- 2017-2027. 191 Id 192 Id. 193 Id 68 Figure 20: Industry Employment Forecast, 2017-2027194 Jackson and Josephine Counties 2017 2027 Change % Change Total Employment 123,190 137,610 14,420 12% Total payroll employment 116,030 129,390 13,360 12% Total private 101,750 114,290 12,540 12% Natural resources and mining 3,600 4,430 830 23% Mining and logging 550 570 20 4% Construction 5,290 6,600 1,310 25% Manufacturing 10,740 11,690 950 9% Durable goods 7,170 7,500 330 5% Wood product manufacturing 2,610 2,670 60 2% Trade, transportation, and utilities 25,020 26,430 1,410 6% Wholesale trade 3,190 3,290 100 3% Retail trade 18,110 19,090 980 5% Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 3,720 4,050 330 9% Information 1,410 1,410 0 0% Financial activities 5,310 5,630 320 6% Professional and business services 9,290 10,650 1,360 15% Private educational and health services 21,830 25,790 3,960 18% Private educational services 1,000 1,180 180 18% Health care and social assistance 20,830 24,610 3,780 18% Health care 18,480 21,710 3,230 17% Leisure and hospitality 14,580 16,510 1,930 13% Accommodation and food services 12,700 14,290 1,590 13% Other services and private households 4,680 5,150 470 10% Government 14,280 15,100 820 6% Federal government 2,010 2,180 170 8% Federal government post office 450 450 0 0% State government 2,750 2,910 160 6% Local government 9,520 10,010 490 5% Local education 6,790 7,160 370 5% Self-employment 7,160 8,220 1,060 15% Using the total employment date in Figure 20, we know how many people each industry employed in 2017 and a projection for those figures through 2027. As a result, we can calculate the annual job growth for the region per industry. Using the foregoing data, and assuming that the rates remain constant, a sample jobs forecast for the Rogue Valley region can be calculated through 2039, as seen in Figure 21. 194 Guy Tauer, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections data (June 26, 2018), available at: www.qualiiyinfo.org/documents/I 0 1 82/92203/Rogue+Valley+lndustUL+Employment+Projections+2017- 2027?version=l.5 (Excel warning) 69 Figure 21: Employment Growth Forecast Jackson and Josephine Counties by Industry Sector Subtotal Commercial/Services Jobs 70,530 Forecasted Change in 17,100 Total job growth 14,280 Number number of jobs 2017 Annual rate forecast Southern 13,370 of jobs in jobs in through of changes Oregon from 2019 14,420 1,442 2017195 2027196 2027197 in jobs198 to 2039199 Construction & Natural resources 8,890 11,030 2,140 214 4,280 Manufacturing 10,740 11,690 950 95 1,900 Transportation & Utilities 3,720 4,050 330 33 660 Wholesale Trade 3,190 3,290 100 10 200 Subtotal industrial jobs 26,540 30,060 3,520 352 7,040 Retail Trade 18,110 19,090 980 98 1,960 Financial 5,310 5,630 320 32 640 Services (professional, business, health, private education, hospitality, information) 47,110 54,360 7,250 725 14,500 Subtotal Commercial/Services Jobs 70,530 79,080 8,550 855 17,100 Institutional/government 14,280 15,100 820 82 1,640 Other/uncovered Employment 11,840 13,370 1,530 153 3,060 Total Jobs 123,190 137,610 14,420 1,442 28,840 In total, if the job growth rates projected for 2017-2027 are maintained for the next two decades, Southern Oregon will grow by 28,840 jobs by 2039. iv. Regional Competitiveness Generally, employers make locational decisions based upon a region's competitive position for their industry. They then choose between communities within that region based upon localized factors. So, identifying industries in which the region can become competitive is an important step in developing land use policies and strategies to capture economic development potential for which Jackson County is well positioned. 195 See Figure 20 for data. 196 id 197 This is the number of jobs in 2027 (the second column) less the number of jobs in 2017 (the first column). 198 This if the forecasted change in jobs 2017 through 2027 (the third column) divided by 10 years. 199 This is the forecasted annual rate of changes in jobs (the fourth column) multiplied by 20 years (2019 to 2039). Because it uses rate of change, it does not need to include the 2017-2018 numbers. 70 Figure 22: Jackson County Shift -Share Analysis 2010-2017200 LQ U.S. Growth rate 201 Major Industry 2010 2017 Percent Net Region Shift202 Percent Net Farm Employment 1.63 1.48 13.44 365 -10.3 -280 Forestry, Fishing, and Related 3.95 4.02 13.44 286 1 21 Mining 0.32 0.53 13.44 35 74.74 194 Construction 1 1.05 13.44 742 4.9 271 Manufacturing 0.9 1.08 13.44 924 20.57 1,414 Retail Trade 1.4 1.39 13.44 2,079 -1.45 -225 Transportation and Warehousing 0.91 0.82 13.44 424 -14.78 -466 Information IFOMM 1.09 0.79 13.44 298 -29.55 -655 Finance and Insurance 0.71 0.65 13.44 553 -10.72 -441 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1.19 1.16 13.44 773 -3.52 -203 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 0.71 0.71 13.44 712 -1.82 -96 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1.36 0.74 13.44 233 -60.57 -1,051 Administrative and Waste Services 0.83 0.77 13.44 729 -9.23 -501 Educational Services 0.55 0.6 13.44 190 10.04 142 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.28 1.31 13.44 2,064 2.11 324 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1.37 1.34 13.44 441 -3.53 -116 Accommodation and Food Services 1.08 1.16 13.44 1,097 8.11 662 Other Services (except Public Administration) 0.98 0.98 13.44 810 -0.54 -32 Federal Civilian 0.93 0.98 13.44 239 4.74 85 Military 0.43 0.43 -0.76 -4 State Government 0.59 0.29 13.44 265 -51.42 -1,016 Local Government 0.78 0.86 ,�` 8.99 1 629' Other/Suppressed Industries203 0.69 0.69 13.44 384 0.07 2 Total Emvlovment 1 1 13.44 14,662 -1.23 -1,343 200 Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP), Shift -Share Analysis of Employment Growth Jackson County, 2010-2017 (data analyzed Nov. 15, 2018), available at: ore og n.reaproject.or analysis/shift- share/tools/410029/2010/2017/. 201 The change in local employment that would have occurred for a specific industry had it grown at the national growth rate of all industries combined. 202 The additional gain (or loss) in local employment for a specific industry beyond the national growth and industry mix effects resulting from the industry growing faster (or slower) than the same industry nationally. This does not represent actual jobs lost but jobs that could have been created had the region kept up with the national growth rate. los The "Other/Suppressed Industries" category portrayed in this table represents a combined total of those industries for which data were unavailable due to confidentiality restrictions. Those industries that are combined include: Utilities; Wholesale Trade. 71 See Figure 22 for how specific industries are doing in the Rogue Valley as compared to the national average. The shift -share column measures the degree to which an industry sector has outperformed the nation within that industry's employment levels during a specified time period. If the regional growth in an industry outpaced the change in the national share then there would be a positive shift share. A positive shift share could even be depicted where the nation loses absolute employment versus the regional share. For example, if manufacturing employment decreased during the period analyzed but the regional economy held a constant manufacturing employment base during the period this would result in a positive shift -share. If an industry sector has out -performed in a shift share analysis and the concentration within that industry also exceeds national averages in a Location Quotient (LQ) analysis, then those industries are likely to be ones for which the region has exhibited durable comparative advantages. Between 2010 and 2017, the region outperformed the nation in nine industries. Of these, mining, manufacturing, educational services, and accommodation and food services outperformed the nation by at least eight percent. Mining had the highest percent gain in employment relative to the nation during the period, however given how little mining industry the area had previously, this comes out to a gain of only 194 new jobs. The second strongest shift came from manufacturing at 20.5 percent and with 1,414 new jobs. There are three industries that the region is lagging in significantly: management of Companies and Enterprises, Information, and State Government. Management of Companies and Enterprises is a classification that involves employment in companies that run other types of smaller companies. Although the previous Economic Element indicated that the region was substantially ahead of the national curve (at 55 percent shift), the region is now significantly behind the national curve (at negative 60.57 shift). This makes sense given the somewhat remote location of the region from a major city and the levels of expertise that would typically be required in this type of industry. The Information industry includes publishing, software, broadcast, and internet industries. It is unclear why the region is behind by almost 30 percent; however, it may have to do with the Southern Oregon region lacking a research university, which would attract younger information professionals. The relative proximity of Silicon Valley (less than 400 miles away) probably contributes to a brain -drain of these young workers. The lack of growth in State Government jobs makes sense because most of the Oregon governmental offices are in the state capital, Salem, or other parts of the Willamette Valley. V. Economic Development Context In addition to measuring economic data, Statewide Planning Goal 9 encourages cities to consider traits in their local economies that have yet to be numerically qualified. These traits are evaluated below through an analysis of Central Point's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. 72 23: Central romrs Trait Location, size, and buying power of markets Economic development efforts and programs Transportation facilities Public facilities and services Workforce development Regulatory barriers Relatively low percentage of large retail compared to population. National exposure with specialty food industry. Direct communication and collaboration between City staff and local businesses. City has good freeway and airport access. City has practical approach to its public facility needs and requirements. City's workforce has access to Rogue Community College (RCC), Southern Oregon University (SOU), the Job Council, and other training programs. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Problem -Solving Plan ("RPS") should encourage growth in the Tolo area and Central Point could capitalize on the advantages present. rrends2o4 Weaknesses Relatively low per - household income. Few large employers within city limits the role of the City in setting the policy and agenda for regional economic development. Central Point's I-5 interchange (Exit 33) is an old design with limited capacity. City's water is supplied by the Medford Water Commission and sewage treatment is provided by the Regional Water Reclamation Facility operated by the City of Medford under long-term agreements. Regionally, there are few post -graduate degree opportunities, no research university, and no proactive regional programs to encourage college graduates to locate to the area. High school drop -outs have limited employability. The RPS may require additional planning work. 204 See City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 (2013). 73 If relative wages can be increased, Central Point can capitalize on expanding population. If City can add a few large employers in a particular sector, the City will be able to drive regional policy in that area. Expansion of Exit 35 would add an additional freeway interchange and opportunities for key industries to locate there. City needs to ensure that it continues to have adequate capacity to serve future employment demands. Advocate for training and programs that directly benefit Central Point employers. Support local schools to minimize high school drop-out rates. Capitalize on the opportunity for targeted employment growth in the Tolo area. Threats Failure to capture proportional growth over time, especially in specialty foods. Capitalizing on this opportunity will require a coordinated strategy. Growth around Exit 35 needs to help economic development without threatening the function of the interchange. Maintaining a good relationship with the City of Medford and the Medford Water Commission is important to avoid future service disputes or too large an increase in rates. High school drop outs have limited employability and demand disproportionate services. Delays in making the Tolo area market ready. vi. Competitive Position Summary When all the regional and localized factors are synthesized, there appear to be at least four target industry sectors where the City of Central Point may exhibit a strong and durable competitive position. These are the same industries identified in the 2013 Economic Element, but the conclusions therein were accurate. x The specialty foods cluster that includes Lillie Belle Farms chocolates, Rogue Creamery, and the nearby Seven Oaks Farm just outside Central Point's municipal boundary represents a small but unique opportunity for growth. x Truck transportation and related support industries pay high wages to City residents and is a sector that both the Region and the City are well positioned to serve. x Planned population growth in Central Point in the regional plan is expected to support expanded retail commercial within the City as the buying power of the City's residential base expands. x Planned population growth is also likely to support expanded healthcare services in the City. Overall, this sector is expected to grow rapidly within the region as exemplified by the Providence Medical Group building on Front Street. Although existing investments in Medford hospitals are likely to concentrate much of the regional growth, Central Point has an opportunity to keep pace with the growth in this sector. Central Point also has some unique spatial characteristics that may support future economic activities in two other sectors due to the Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Problem -Solving Plan ("RPS"). Specifically, there are aggregate employment uses and Erickson Air Crane that are located within the Tolo Urban Reserve Areas. These are both employer types with special needs, but the areas inclusion in the RPS Plan may present opportunities to work with these employers for mutual benefit. vii. Assessment of Central Point's Economic Development Potential The DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook recommends assessing the City's economic potential based on several factors. See Figure 24 for subjective scoring on each of Central Point's competitive market advantages and disadvantages. Central Point is located well in relation to markets and key transportation facilities. It is situated halfway between two major cities, Portland and San Francisco, is located on Interstate 5, and has ready access to the Rogue Valley International Airport. The drawbacks are that it is not located close to a major metro area and most flights from the airport require connecting flights at a major hub. Central Point has excellent public facilities like water and sewer. There are rarely any service disruptions. 74 Central Point has fair access to labor markets. Its relative isolation from a major population center does increase costs and decreases its ready access. The same is true with materials and energy, aside from some natural resources like timber. Figure 24: Central Point's Economic Development Potential Location relative to markets 3 Availability of key transportation facilities 3 Key public facilities (water, sewer, etc.) 4 Labor Market (cost and access) 2 Materials and energy (availability and cost) 2 Necessary support services 3 Pollution control issues 3 Education and technical training 2 Other (such as land availability) 3 Total 25 Scores: 1= poor, 2 = fair, 3 = good, 4 = excellent Central Point has good access to necessary support services. What businesses cannot get internally or in near -by Medford, they can get at a nearby major city like Portland, or probably find online. Central Point has few pollution control issues, although the wildfire smoke in the summer months does harm to the local economy and industries like tourism. The City has fair access to education and technical training. The area hosts both Rogue Community College (RCC) and Southern Oregon University (SOU). Other than that, most students must travel either to the Oregon Institute of Technology in nearby Klamath Falls, to a state school like the University of Oregon and Oregon State University in the Willamette Valley, or out of state altogether. Lastly, Central Point has good access to other market advantages, such as a ready supply of land in the Rogue Valley and surrounding communities. viii. Central Point's Projected Job Growth Next, a forecast for Central Point's future job growth needs to be calculated. This is key to determining how much land is needed per industry category in Central Point through 2039. The following analysis is based on Central Point's population compared to the regional population. That population percentage is then applied to the regional job forecast. For example, given that the population of Jackson County in 2018 was 219,270205 and the population of Josephine 205 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018 through 2068 47 (June 30, 2018), available at: www.pdx.edl /prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Jackson_Report _Final.pdf (PDF warning). 75 County is approximately 87,487,206 and Central Point has 19,101 people ,207 the City of Central Point currently has approximately 6.22 percent of the regional population. As a result, we can assume that Central Point will capture approximately 6.22 percent of jobs created regionally in 2019.208 Over the next 20 years, Central Point will need to house approximately 7,216 additional residents .209 This means that by 2039, Central Point will have approximately 7.06 percent of the local population and should capture a corresponding amount of new jobs. See Figure 25. As a result, over the next 20 years, Central Point should capture an average of 6.64 percent of new jobs. Figure 25: Central Point's population growth rate Estimated 2019 City/County Jackson County's population 211 219,270 Central Point's population 212 19,101 Josephine County's population 213 87,487 Total Population of both Counties214 306,757 Central Point's population as a percentage of Southern Oregon's population 6.22% 7.06% 6.64% Using the data in Figure 25, we can apply Central Point's projected population rates to forecast the number of jobs that Central Point will likely gain in each industry over the next 20 years. See Figure 26 for the forecasted job numbers. 206 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Josephine County Coordinated Population Forecast 2015 through 2065 33 (June 2015), available at: www.pdx.edl /prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Josephine_ Forecast_Report _201506.pdf (PDF warning). 207 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018 through 2068. 208 Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population, not that it has an equal percentage of total jobs now existing. 209 That is Central Point's forecasted 2039 population less the estimated 2018 population from Figure 25 (26,317 — 19,101 = 7,216). 0 21That is Central Point's 2018 population (as a percentage of the region's population) added to Central Point's 2039 population (as a percentage of the region's population) averaged ((6.22% + 7.06%) /2). 211 Id. 212 City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 (2013) at 13. 213 City of Grants Pass, Comprehensive Plan: Population Element (2014), at 15. 214 That is Jackson County's population added to Josephine County's population. 76 Average Forecasted population 2039 share 2019- 2039210 264,951 26,317 107,470 372,421 7.06% 6.64% Using the data in Figure 25, we can apply Central Point's projected population rates to forecast the number of jobs that Central Point will likely gain in each industry over the next 20 years. See Figure 26 for the forecasted job numbers. 206 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Josephine County Coordinated Population Forecast 2015 through 2065 33 (June 2015), available at: www.pdx.edl /prc/sites/www.pdx.edu.prc/files/Josephine_ Forecast_Report _201506.pdf (PDF warning). 207 Portland State University, Population Research Center, Jackson County Coordinated Population Forecast 2018 through 2068. 208 Note that this assumes that Central Point has an equal percentage of the jobs created as compared to population, not that it has an equal percentage of total jobs now existing. 209 That is Central Point's forecasted 2039 population less the estimated 2018 population from Figure 25 (26,317 — 19,101 = 7,216). 0 21That is Central Point's 2018 population (as a percentage of the region's population) added to Central Point's 2039 population (as a percentage of the region's population) averaged ((6.22% + 7.06%) /2). 211 Id. 212 City of Central Point, Economic Element 2013-2033 (2013) at 13. 213 City of Grants Pass, Comprehensive Plan: Population Element (2014), at 15. 214 That is Jackson County's population added to Josephine County's population. 76 Figure 26: Central Point's 20 -year job forecast by industry Southern Central Point's forecasted Oregon's 20-lyear annual job growth at 6.64% job forecast2 5 of regional forecast216 Construction & Natural resources 4,280 284 Manufacturing 1,900 126 Transportation & Utilities 660 44 Wholesale Trade 200 13 Subtotal industrial jobs 7,040 467 Retail Trade 1,960 130 Financial 640 42 Services (professional, business, health, private education, hospitality, 963 information) 14,500 Subtotal Commercial/Services Jobs 17,100 1135 Institutional/government 1,640 109 Other/uncovered Employment 3,060 203 Total New Jobs 28,840 1915 Based on the foregoing data, Central Point will need enough employment lands over the next 20 years for approximately 1915 new jobs. tis See Figure 21 for complete data. 216 That is Southern Oregon's 20 -year job forecast from Figure 21 multiplied by 6.23%, rounded to the nearest whole number. 77 Section 6: Land Demand Introduction This section projects the City of Central Point's short term (2019-2024) and long- term (2019-2039) supply of land needed to satisfy employment projections. Having reviewed economic trends on a national, state, regional, and local level, it is important to use that information to identify economic development opportunities that are likely to expand or locate in or near Central Point within the next twenty years. Understanding the types of sites needed will enable the City to successfully implement its economic development objectives. Legal Requirements Central Point must have adequate supplies of land to meet employment needs for a range of employment opportunities. These lands must be adequate to capitalize on the City's economic opportunities in terms of both quantity and type. Central Point is required to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand within the city's urban growth boundary. OAR 660-009-0015. A use or category of use will be reasonably expected to expand or locate to Central Point if it possesses the appropriate locational factors for the use or category of use. Economic Growth Rate Forecast It is expected that Central Point will at least maintain growth rates comparable to the region as a whole across all industries over the next twenty years and may reasonably be expected to exceed regional growth rates in target industries. Central Point's population is projected to grow at 1.5% through 2039, see Figure 17 supra. However, consistent with the City's competitive positions described above there are at least three sectors where the City is well positioned to capture additional economic opportunities and out- perform the overall regional growth. Those sectors are specialty foods manufacturing, trucking and warehousing and retail. It is in these three industry sectors that the State's regional forecast is appropriately adjusted upward to reflect localized opportunities. i. Specialty Food Manufacturing This is a small but distinguished sector in the Central Point economy. Overall, modest growth assumptions in the manufacturing sector are likely to adequately capture growth potential in this niche sector but may buoy a slight edge over regional growth rates. However, exceptional growth in this sector is possible due to the exceptional quality of products in this niche. If such growth in the future materializes, then that may warrant a re-evaluation of the overall manufacturing employment growth forecast in the Economic Element. ii. Trucking and Warehousing The trucking and warehousing industry is strong regionally with higher than average employment concentrations. Median wages in the industry for Central Point residents are much 78 higher than regional or state averages. Assuring adequate supply of land for these uses represents an excellent opportunity to expand on an existing sector of strength that also pays relatively high wages. Also, this industry has potential interconnections with the wholesaling industry that creates the potential to outpace overall regional growth to a modest degree. Central Point is also uniquely positioned to satisfy regional growth and capitalize on regional comparative advantages in this sector. The Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan contemplates that the "Tolo" area is well situated for this type of economic activity north of Interchange 35 which already serves industrial traffic to White City and aggregate resource traffic in the area. There is very little residential and commercial development around the interchange. No new residential development is contemplated in the regional plan, so this area is well positioned to meet an important regional need for expanded transportation and warehousing uses. However, the Tolo area is constrained because of a relative lack of water service. Any attempt to take advantage of this area would require a large investment to increase water and provide other necessary utilities. iii. Retail Retail represents another opportunity for the City of Central Point. Retail trade and associated employment tends to vary with population. From a retail trade perspective, population growth is essentially consumer growth. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that retail trade in Central Point will outpace the two -county regional rate and will keep pace with the annual average population growth as set out in the County's coordinated population forecast for the City. From an industry categorization versus land use perspective there are some small but important differences. Land use terminology included within the retail category includes restaurants and bars while restaurants are categorized in the leisure and hostility industry sectors, so growth in this sector is appropriately consistent with the retail uses in both categorization schemes such as a boutique. iv. Projected Growth Forecast by Industry Figure 27 depicts a reasonable 10 -year planned growth rate by industry for the City of Central Point. This growth rate utilizes the state's regional forecast for all industries through 2027. 79 Figure 27: Central Point Projected Growth Rate by Industry217 State % Change Industry Sector 2017-2027 Total Private Natural resources and mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, transportation, and utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation, warehousing, and utilities Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services Financial activities Other services Information 12.9% 11.1% 17.5% 6.7% 10.5% 8.1% 9.4% 17.3% 13.1% 17.0% 4.9% 10.6% 10.2% Central Point % Change 2017-2027 12.0% 23.0% 25.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 9.0% 13.0% 15.0% 6.0% 10.0% 0.0% This is the best and most recent data available for regional industry growth projections over the long-term. This economic element assumes that the rates will remain constant through 2039. i. Site Requirements Analysis Goal 9 requires an analysis of site requirements. The Economic Element and Buildable Land Inventory essentially breaks the City's employment land inventory by employment category. Within these general development pattern types, the Economic Element analyzes demand and supply of large, medium and small sites. In practice, there are no discrete size breaks that differentiate between large, medium and small sites, but it is useful to analyze different sizes because the site requirements do vary with firm size. Figure 28 describes the qualitative site requirements for each of the general development pattern. 217 The data in the middle column is from the Gail Kiles Krumenauer, Senior Economic Analyst at the Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Employment Industry Projections 2017-2027 (June 26, 2018), available at: www.aualitvinfo.orii/documents/101 82/92203/Oreizon+lndustrv+EmDlovment+Proiections+2017-2027?version=l .7 (Excel Warning). The data in the right column is from Guy Tauer, Regional Economist at the Oregon Employment Department, Rogue Valley Industry Employment Projections 2017-2027, available at: www.aualitvinfo.orL,/documents/ 10182/92203/Roeue+Vallev+Industry+EmDlovment+Proi ections+2017- 2027?version=l.5 (Excel Warning) 80 Cd 0 U c4 rwure z.n: v.enerai ueveionment i astern )ite Retail commercial uses typically require all urban facilities and services such as water, sewer, storm drainage, police and fire protection, electricity, natural gas, and modern communications systems Office uses typically require all urban facilities and services such as water, sewer, storm drainage, police and fire protection, electricity, natural gas, and modern communications systems Industrial uses may or may not require all urban services. cd However, many industrial uses will have very specific and large demands for certain services like power or sewage capacity Retail commercial development requires premium access and excellent visibility for customer attraction. Foot traffic and access to public transportation can also be important. Consumer driven office users like branch banks & insurance sales must have good visibility and access. Other office uses only need reasonably direct access to the regional transportation network. Airport access can be essential Access for freight is a top priority and may be via truck and/or rail. Industrial uses sometimes accept more remote locations to avoid congestion and that support freight movements. Airport access is often important. uirements Large/ Large commercial sites tend to cluster within larger blocks 8-30 of commercial that can be 100 acres or more. Outdoor storage sales can demand very large sites. These users will anchor commercial areas and attract customers for medium and small users. Must be located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and state highways. Med./ Medium commercial uses can locate within larger blocks of 2-7 commercial or may function as a stand-alone community commercial use. Must be located adjacent to and visible from major arterials and collectors if not stat hiahways Small/ Small commercial uses fill in the spaces not used by 0.5-2 medium and large retail commercial. These tend to be specialty sales that serve niche retail markets. Large/ Large office uses will require excellent access to the 3.5-12 regional transportation network because they have large workforces that require capacity in the system. Large office uses can locate in commercial or industrial areas depending on the specific requirements of the enterprise. Med./ Medium office uses that require customer significant access 1-3.5 will seek out and compete for commercial zoned space. Other medium office uses may demand business park space intermixed with light industrial uses. Small/ Small office uses are the uses that "fill in" commercial and 0.25-1 industrial areas because their needs are the most varied and requirements the most flexible Large/ Large industrial uses tend to conduct site searches on 15-300 regional, national or internal scales. Factors that affect demand depends on the very specific requirements of the enterprise that are difficult to predict a priori. Med/ Medium industrial uses tend to be price sensitive and seek 3-14 out space within business or office parks. They sometimes require property ownership that will also result in low real estate overhead in relation to the enterprise. Small/ Small industrial uses tend to be price sensitive. Low rent is 0.5-2.5 a priority. Small site sizes can create challenges for freight movement to small industrial sites and also within the sites themselves. ii. Target Industries' Unique Site Requirements In addition to the general development pattern site requirements, the site requirements specific to Central Point's target industries warrant more detailed consideration. 81 Specialty Food Products Manufacturing The small cluster of businesses that are engaged in specialty food product manufacturing in Central Point have small retail storefronts that accompany their manufacturing businesses. The sites are generally small and there is limited room to expand operations on the existing sites. The segment of Highway 99 where these uses are located have good access to I-5. From there they have excellent visibility directly from Highway 99. However, the narrow strip between Highway 99 and the railroad tracks creates a practical limit on expansion. Central Point should keep lines of communication open with these businesses to assure that the site requirements for any expansion are well understood by staff and policy makers. Truck Transportation and Transportation Support Services These businesses require both office space and trucking facilities that are often co -located. Site requirements may also include space for related uses such as truck washes, truck driver accommodations and inter -modal freight handling. Large outdoor storage and warehouse space is typically required. Adequate expansion area is often a factor when selecting a site so that expansion can be accommodated without the need to relocate. Direct access to the interstate freeway is essential and must be located in areas that are relatively free from congestion to enable efficient freight movements. Aside from transportation facilities, power, and modern communications, some transportation uses may not necessarily require the full complement of other urban facilities and services. Retail Trade Convenient access to I-5 is important but meeting visibility site requirements from I-5 in Central Point is a challenge. The Pine Street interchange is somewhat congested and may raise site requirement concerns among larger retailers. Visibility from the Pine Street arterial is good and access can be made reasonably direct. Until an anchor center is sited that attracts regional shopping trips, the site requirements of many small and medium retailers cannot be met. The anchor tenants create a critical mass of shopping activity that then allows the small and medium retailers to achieve additional sales with shopping trips that are created by the anchor. Long -Term Land Demand Estimate This section calculates Central Point's land demand estimate for the next 20 years. Figure 21 above provides the total number of jobs forecasted to be created in Southern Oregon through 2039. Figure 25 calculates that Central Point should capture approximately 6.23 percent of these new jobs. Figure 26 calculates that this equals approximately 1,915 new jobs for Central Point and allocates them by industry. Employment land demand estimates can be projected using a variety of techniques, but this Economic Element calculates the land needs by converting the projected population growth rates into projected employees and then using average employee space needs and floor area ratios to project future land needs. See Figure 32 for the estimate of employee density per acre. Then these land needs must be aggregated by the development pattern type demanded by each industry 82 so that the demand projections can ultimately be reconciled with land base supply calculations. Each of these steps requires assumptions about expected ratios and land development efficiencies. iii. Estimate of Redevelopment In order to estimate the number of acres needed by 2039 for all of Central Point's industries, this section uses an employee per acre ratio. According to the DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, there are typically 8-12 industrial sector jobs per acre, 14-20 commercial and service sector jobs per acre, 6-10 institutional and government jobs per acre, and 6-10 other employment sector jobs per acre.218 This analysis assumes that Central Point will need to allocate fewer jobs per acre than average. Figure 29: Projected Employment Net Buildable Land Needed 2019 to 2039 Figure 32 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD's employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the City. As a result, Central Point will need 44.7 new acres in the aggregate by 2039. However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial, institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add approximately 73 acres of commercial, institutional, and other land types of lands by 2039.221 218 DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46. 219 See Figure 26. 220 DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46. 221 That is, the number of jobs divided by the Acres/Job DLCD. 222 These buildable acres currently exist in the City's inventory. See City of Central Point Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039, at 6, Tables 3-4. 223 That is, Figure 21's Number of jobs in 2017 multiplied by 6.22% (Central Point's population as a percent of Southern Oregon's population). 224 See Figure 26 for data. 221 That is, (21.1714) + (18.1667) + (33.8333) = (73.1714). 83 Number of Acres/Job Acres Total Net Acreage Jobs219 DLCD220 Needed 22' Buildable Surplus/ Acres222 Shortage M idndustrial 1,6501 8 N� xCommercial/Service 4,387 14 N o idnstitutional/Gov't 888 6 xOther 736 6 TOTAL: 7,662 Vv idndustrial 467 8 54.87 86.77 28.395 xCommercial/Service 1,1355 14 76.07 59.9 (21.1714) N idnstitutional/Gov't 109 6 17 0 (18.1667) c >� xOther 203 6 31.83 0 (33.8333) TOTAL: 1,914 (44.776) Figure 32 takes the number of jobs Central Point expects to gain by 2039 and estimates how many acres are needed for each major employment land use type based on the DLCD's employee per acre ratio. Then, it compares that to the total net buildable acres currently in the City. As a result, Central Point will need 44.7 new acres in the aggregate by 2039. However, Central Point will have a slight surplus of industrial lands but a deficit of commercial, institutional, and other land types. To eliminate this deficit, Central Point will need to add approximately 73 acres of commercial, institutional, and other land types of lands by 2039.221 218 DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46. 219 See Figure 26. 220 DLCD's Industrial & Other Employment Lands Analysis Guidebook, 2-46. 221 That is, the number of jobs divided by the Acres/Job DLCD. 222 These buildable acres currently exist in the City's inventory. See City of Central Point Employment Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039, at 6, Tables 3-4. 223 That is, Figure 21's Number of jobs in 2017 multiplied by 6.22% (Central Point's population as a percent of Southern Oregon's population). 224 See Figure 26 for data. 221 That is, (21.1714) + (18.1667) + (33.8333) = (73.1714). 83 Another way to estimate the land demand is to compare the above result to the conclusions reached in other parts of the Central Point Comprehensive Plan. For example, Central Point's Land Use Element 2013-2033 found that the City would need between 59 and 67 acres by 2033. It is reasonable that between 2033 and 2039, Central Point would need 6 additional acres. The previous element also estimated that Central Point needs approximately 13 acres of employment lands per 1,000 residents. 226 Currently, Central Point has approximately 19,101 people 227 and the 2039 population is projected to be around 26,317.228 This increase of approximately 7,216 residents means that Central Point would need a total of 93.8 additional acres for employment purposes in the long-term .229 But, because there is a surplus of approximately 23 Industrial site acres, Central Point actually needs 65 acres. 230 Conclusion In conclusion, based on Central Point's projected job capture rate, the Comprehensive Plan's previous calculations, and the estimated ratio of residents to land use needs, Central Point has a forecasted demand of 65 to 73 additional acres for employment purposes for the 2019 to 2039 planning period. Short -Term Land Demand Estimate By quartering the numbers from the long-term estimate, the short-term land employment use needs can be determined. As a result, Central Point will need anywhere between 16 and 18 additional acres for the next five years (2019-2024). Inventory of Employment Lands After identifying economic opportunities and estimating land demand, the next step in the Goal 9 process is to evaluate the current land base and its ability to meet the site needs for which there is a projected demand over the next twenty years. Central Point updates its general buildable lands information on a regular basis and this information has been used as the starting point to analyze the land base from a more specific Goal 9 perspective. The Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 has been published by the City of Central Point as a separate document. The above -conclusion that Central Point needs 65 to 73 additional acres by 2039 considers the findings of the BLI, including that there is a slight surplus of industrial lands. i. Redevelopment and Land Use Efficiency The City of Central Point's current built employment land base has relatively limited redevelopment potential. According to the BLI, the City only has 8.95 acres of total commercial lands and 36.18 acres of industrial lands that are redevelopable.231 Further, these lots likely 226 Central Point Land Use Element 2018 at 27. 227 Id. at 9. 228 Population Research Center, Portland State University, Jackson County Final Forecast Report, Cycle 2: Region 47 Documents (May 2018). 229 That is, (((26,707-19,101)/1000)*13 acres) 230 That is, 93.8 acres — 28.395. 231 Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 6, Tables 3 and 4. 84 consist of one- and two-story buildings.232 This configuration does not lend itself well to redevelopment on a scale that would significantly alter the supply and demand for sites over a twenty-year period because this would require the demolition and aggregation of parcels. While this type of redevelopment does occur on occasion, it is unlikely to be economically viable in Central Point on a scale that would alter long-term supply and demand projections for employment lands. This quantitative determination does not mean that there are not good qualitative reasons to support redevelopment, especially in the downtown and along Highway 99. There exists a small amount of redevelopment potential along Table Rock Road .233 Several parcels are zoned residential and that are large enough to be be developed for employment uses. Other parcels are not intensively developed. However, this is an area where relatively inexpensive small industrial sites are available to own and where there are limited development requirements that add overhead. In some ways, this area is important employment land for certain types of firms that have ever fewer places to locate in the valley in a manner that is cost- effective. As such, aggressive redevelopment planning policies for this area may seem to be a great aesthetic endeavor but may have adverse and unintended economic consequences. Moreover, without relatively massive financial incentives for significant redevelopment that would change the overall quality of development in this area, lesser redevelopment policies tend to have the opposite effect where owners intentionally avoid development projects that would trigger expensive design and aesthetic upgrades to their respective properties. ii. Vacant Lands According to the BLI, most of the City's vacant acreage consists of Medium Industrial lands, as well as Large and Medium Retail .234 The City has barely any vacant acreage allocated to office use of any kind. It also has little acreage dedicated to small retail. However, according the analysis in this Economic Element, Central Point's economy will likely have its strongest growth in industries that require retail and office space. As a result, the City needs to increase its buildable lands in these categories. Further, according to the BLI, most of the vacant number of lots are in small retail (even though there is little total acreage).235 Further, there are few vacant lots of any kind for offices, large retail, and large industrial.236 As a result, the City will need more parcels for offices of every size and for large industrial and large retail. iii. Conclusion The City does not have enough employment lands to meet the projected economic needs over the next 20 years. Population growth and job forecasts indicate that the City will need more lands for Commercial/Service, Institutional/Government, and Other employment types. The BLI also indicates that the City does not have enough large retail parcels. 232 Given that few buildings in the City are taller than two stories. 233 See Central Point Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI): 2019-2039 at 13. 234 Id. at 7, Figure 3. 235 Id. 236 Id. 85 Section 7: Goals, Conclusions, and Policies This section sets forth the conclusions from the foregoing analysis as well as the City of Central Point's economic development goals and policies. The goals and policies in this section are similar to those adopted by the previous Economic Element (2013). Statewide Planning Goal 9 requires that comprehensive plans and policies contribute to a stable and healthy economy in all regions of the state. Goal: General Economic Development 1. To actively promote a strong, diversified, and sustainable local economy, that reinforces Central Point's "small town feel"237 and family orientation while preserving or enhancing the quality of life in the community as a place to live, work, and play. Because this Economic Element concludes that there will be economic uncertainty in the short-term, it is important that Central Point work to diversify and strengthen its economy. By continuing to analyze economic trends, Central Point will be able to continue growing strong over the next couple decades. 2. To create incentives to encourage and support economic development; Central Point has historically been a bedroom community where people live but work elsewhere. In order to maintain a strong tax base and to ensure continued economic prosperity, Central Point must take an active role in encouraging development. Passive practices will not lead to economic prosperity and could endanger the City's future. 3. To encourage and promote the development or enhancement of retail and office areas to achieve a vibrant shopping, entertainment, living and working experience in the downtown area. This goal is important because Central Point needs a vibrant downtown in order to ensure future economic prosperity. Further, based on the current BLI and the projected land use needs, Central Point is going to need more space for these types of activities in the future. 4. To encourage active communication and cooperation between the City, local, and state agencies, and local businesses concerning economic development, education, and workforce development. 237 As defined in the Urbanization Element of the Comprehensive Plan 86 The City cannot reach its goals without the assistance of others. As a result, the City needs to be receptive to suggestions and aid from others and also needs to be active in communicating its needs and plans. 5. To encourage and support growth, particularly in the targeted industries (retail, specialty food manufacturing, and trucking and warehousing sectors). These targeted industries are where the City could make strides. It is important that the City help maintain and grow these industries now and in the future. 6. To maintain at all times an adequate supply of suitable short-term (five-year) employment lands. According to the BLI, Central Point does not have an adequate short-term supply of lands for institutional/government and other employment types. As a result, the City should plan to add to the land supply in the near future. 7. To prepare and maintain a City of Central Point Economic Development Manual identifying and monitoring economic development strategies and programs available to the City. Through the development of its Economic Element, the City of Central Point has reached the following conclusions and policies relative to the above cited general economic goals: I. Central Point concludes that the economy will change with time. As a result, the City must be prepared for economic fluctuations (including down -turns) in both the short- and long-term, which could seriously impact the land use planning forecasts. The City further concludes the pursuit of beneficial economic development requires a balance between short-term and long-term economic objectives. The City recognizes that some opportunities may warrant short-term incentives to achieve longer term employment or property tax revenue objectives; while other opportunities may have a lesser long-term benefit and may not warrant the short-term fiscal cost of incentives. 2. Central Point concludes that effective economic development actions necessary to diversify the City's economic base requires an understanding of, and a careful balance between regional cooperation and competition. It is important to understand and pro- actively participate in the broader national, state, and regional economic development discussions. Participating in regional economic development programs like Southern Oregon Regional Development, Inc. (SOREDI) and the Rogue Valley Workforce Development Council can improve the regional economic climate and a strong regional economy will benefit all communities within the region. Most importantly, to be an effective participant the City must recognize its competitive advantage within the region and compete for those economic development opportunities within the region for which Central Point is well positioned. 87 3. Central Point concludes that the economy is dynamic and even economic opportunities for which the City is well positioned require timely and concerted action. These dynamic economic forces require the City to be responsive and flexible to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. They also require the City to engage in sustained analysis of national, state, and local economic conditions. Only when the City is actively monitoring its economy will it be poised to take advantage of good opportunities and guide the community through any turbulent times. The City's economic development goals will be managed through the following policies: i. Policy 1: Participation The City shall participate on the regional and state level in the development and programming of alternative financial incentives and initiatives for economic development, including education and workforce development that are consistent with the City's economic development goals ii. Policy 2: Refine Policies The City shall continue to monitor and refine its land development and fiscal policies as they relate to economic development to ensure that the City's economic development programming can be effectively implemented. iii. Policy 3: Monitor Long -Term Consequences Consider economic development incentives as an inducement to development only when it can be demonstrated that the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City. Goal: Economic Opportunities Synthesis The conclusions in this section express the City's synthesis of both the data and qualitative findings made throughout this document. It also identifies the appropriate economic opportunities: i. Policy 4: Small Businesses Central Point concludes that the City has experienced the loss of cottage industry and expanding small businesses due to a lack of vacant available employment related buildings (flex-space238) and the City cannot attract small businesses from elsewhere for the same reason. 238 An industrial or commercial/office building designed to provide the flexibility to utilize the floor space in a variety of configurations. Usually provides a configuration allowing a flexible amount of office or showroom space in combination with manufacturing, laboratory, warehouse distribution, etc. 88 ii. Policy 5: Tolo Area The City shall, in collaboration with Jackson County, continue planning the Exit 35 area—also called "Area CP -1B (Tolo)"in the Regional Plan Element, to capitalize on economic opportunities, especially for transportation -based economic activity and truck/rail freight support services. This area also contains the aeronautics manufacturing company Erickson Air Crane and serves aggregate uses; these uses have many specific and unique dimensions that should be carefully considered. Plans and land use regulations applicable to this area need to account for the site requirements of firms in these sectors. Because the area is currently constrained as a result of a lack of access to water, the City should begin planning how to make water more readily available so as to make these lands available for more economic development. iii. Policy 6: Monitor Regulations The City shall periodically evaluate its regulations for employment related development, particularly as it relates to targeted industries, as well as compatibility with adjacent non - employment lands to ensure that regulations are consistent with applicable best practices. Regulations found to no longer be appropriate should be amended as soon as practicable thereafter. Goal. Employment Land Supply and Development This section sets forth the City's conclusions and policies that result from the analysis of the City's land supplies and employment land development patterns, as follows: 1. Central Point concludes that it must maintain an adequate supply of employment land. The City will need to expand its present UGB to ensure an adequate 5 -year and 20 -year supply of buildable employment land. 2. The City Concludes that its existing supply of employment lands are inadequate to meet future needs and that all efforts should be made to ensure the City has an adequate supply of each land type. 3. Central Point concludes that the availability of vacant buildings for expanding small businesses is in short supply and that an effort should be made to encourage its development to expand the city's inventory of "flex -space." 4. Central Point concludes that urban facilities and services are critical for the development of employment lands. Thus, the City's Goal 11 Public Facilities and Services planning and Goal 12 Transportation Planning are critical to the timely delivery of infrastructure necessary to support economic development. 89 The City's Employment Land Supply Goals will be managed through the following policies: i. Policy 7: Adequate Short -Term Supply The City shall assure that, through its Capital Improvement Program, public facilities and transportation facilities are available and adequate in capacity to maintain a supply of competitive short-term buildable lands sufficient to meet employment needs within a five-year period, particularly for the retail, specialty foods, professional, health care, and trucking sectors. ii. Policy 8: Prepare for Long -Term Needs The City shall maintain a supply of competitive short-term employment lands in the medium and large site categories equivalent to the twenty-year demand for those categories. The supply of short-term employment land shall be reviewed and updated annually. When it is determined that the supply of land as measured in terms of number of sites and/or acreage in the medium and large site categories is inadequate to serve the twenty-year needs then the City shall amend its UGB to include additional short-term (5 -year) employment lands. iii. Policy 9: Adequate Supplies for Small Businesses The City shall pursue and encourage Turnkey Design and Build solutions for flex -space that create opportunities for expanding small businesses in Central Point, and may consider economic development incentives to attract and `marry' the construction and development component with the small business component as an inducement to development, but only when it can be demonstrated that: the short-term consequences are understood and found to be acceptable and the long-term consequences are determined to be beneficial to the City. 90