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CITY OF CENTRAL POINT
PLANNING COMMISSION AGENDA
Septmeber 6, 2016 - 6:00 p.m.
I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER
II. ROLL CALL
Planning Commission members Chuck Piland (Chair), Mike Oliver, Tom Van Voorhees,
Rob Hernandez, Elizabeth Powell, Craig Nelson Sr., and Kay Harrison
III. CORRESPONDENCE
IV. MINUTES
Review and approval of the July 5, 2016 Minutes.
V. PUBLIC APPEARANCES
VI. BUSINESS
A. Public Hearing — Mobilitie Conditional Use Permit application (File No. 16019) to be
Continued to October 4, 2016 at 6:00pm
VII. DISCUSSION
A. Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan — 2016 Update.
B. Population and Demographics Element Update for the Central Point
Comprehensive Plan
VIII. ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEWS
IX. MISCELLANEOUS
X. ADJOURNMENT
City of Central Point
Planning Commission Minutes
July 5, 2016
I. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER AT 6:05 P.M.
II. ROLL CALL
Commissioners Chuck Piland, Craig Nelson, Tom Van Voorhees, Kay Harrison,
Rob Hernandez, Elizabeth Powell and Mike Oliver were present. Also in
attendance were: Tom Humphrey, Community Development Director, Don Burt,
Planning Manager, Molly Bradley, Community Planner, Elizabeth Riddle, Building
Technician and Karin Skelton, Planning Secretary.
PLEDGE OF ALLEGIENCE
III. CORRESPONDENCE
The Commissioners were provided with correspondence regarding Planning
Commissioner Training by Tom Humphrey, Community Development Director,
who indicated that the City would pay for anyone who wished to attend.
The Commissioners were provided information regarding the E. Pine Street
Streetscape open house scheduled for July 11, 2016.
IV. MINUTES
Tom Van Voorhees made a motion to approve the minutes of the June 7, 2016, Planning
Commission Meeting, noting that the agenda referred to June 9, 2016 minutes although
June 7t' was the correct date. Mike Oliver, seconded the motion: ROLL CALL: Mike
Oliver, yes; Rob Hernandez, abstained; Tom Van Voorhees, yes; Craig Nelson,
abstained, Kay Harrison, yes; Elizabeth Powell, yes. Motion passed.
V. PUBLIC APPEARANCES
None
VI. BUSINESS
A. Consideration of a Conditional Use Permit to replace the existing
scoreboard at the Crater High School football stadium with a new, internally illuminated
scoreboard. The project site is located in the Civic zoning district within the Transit
Oriented Development (TOD) District and is defined on the Jackson County Assessor's
map as 37S 2W 03DB, Tax Lot 100.
Planning Commission Minutes
July S, 2016
Page 2
Rob Hernandez indicated that he was a member of the Crater Foundation and might
have a conflict of interest in this matter and offered to abstain from voting. Tom
Humphrey said that that did not constitute a conflict and he could vote or not as he
chose.
Molly Bradley explained to the Planning Commission that the applicant is requesting a
Conditional Use Permit to install an LED video scoreboard in place of the existing, non-
electronic scoreboard at the Crater High School football stadium. The proposed
scoreboard is internally illuminated and will be located approximately 135 feet west and
45 feet south of the existing scoreboard, meeting all setback requirements for the zone.
The proposed scoreboard measures 512.5 square feet in area and will be 30 feet in
height.
The purpose of the Conditional Use designation is to ensure consistency with the intent
of the Civic district, compliance with the design standards in the TOD district, and to
assure compatibility with adjacent properties. This application intends to minimize impact
on the surrounding neighbors by relocating the scoreboard to the northwest corner of the
stadium, and directing it southeast towards the stadium stands. The Lighting Analysis
demonstrates that the illuminated display area will face away from the adjoining
residential neighborhood, and direct its rays toward the field. The scoreboard will not
produce any sound and will be used approximately once a week during the fall and
spring months for athletic events.
Additionally, as of this date, the necessary provisions for allowing scoreboards have not
been formally approved. On June 23, 2016, the City Council held a public hearing on the
proposed scoreboard amendments, and moved to forward the code amendments to a
second reading, to be held on July 28, 2016. Approval of the application will be
contingent on the final adoption of the proposed text amendments.
No issues or concerns have been raised from notified agencies and neighboring
property owners.
Ms. Bradley stated that the plans for the conditional use permit allow for conditions of
approval to mitigate any possible negative impacts. She also informed the
commissioners that the scoreboard was located in the floodplain and any development
standards would be addressed at the time of the building permit issuance.
The Planning Commission asked if there would be any advertising on the new
scoreboard. Ms. Bradley responded that there would be fixed, back lit logo type displays
on the frame of the scoreboard, but they would only be lit when the scoreboard was in
use for an event.
Planning Commission Minutes
July S, 2016
Page 3
Public Hearing Opened.
Samantha Steele of School District 6 stated that the scoreboard would be used
exclusively for sporting events and graduations. There would be no sound associated
with the scoreboard. She said that the existing sound system was being replaced,
however that had nothing to do with the scoreboard. The scoreboard would be located
diagonally in a corner of the field rather than the center as the existing one was.
Public portion of the Hearing was closed.
Tom Humphrey said that the city wanted to support the school, but did not want to allow
this type of sign everywhere in the city. He said that once the Council had approved the
text amendments regarding scoreboards, it was the City's decision to allow the school to
begin construction immediately so as to have it ready in time for school in the fall.
VII. DISCUSSION
A. City of Central Point 2008 Population Element Update
Don Burt gave a brief overview of the City's population element history. He informed the
commissioners that there had been two significant events since 2008 which affected the
results of the 2008 population element. The first was the Great Recession and the
second was HB 2253 which designated the Population Research Center, Portland State
University as the sole and official provider of population forecasts for cities and counties
throughout the state. He said that the Population Element contains six policies:
Population forecast, average household size, family household distribution, average
family household size, non -family household distribution and average non -family
household size. He said that the population forecast prepared by Portland State
covered a fifty year period but is required to be updated every four years. He added that
there were many factors which affected population growth, among them the economy,
and social trends. He explained how the population forecast affected the number of
acres the city needed to support the population.
B. Tom Humphrey updated the Planning Commission with regard to the
Costco appeal. He said that at this time we are waiting for a hearing date to be set by
LUBA. We have received briefs from the Appellants and that Costco and the City's
attorney would be submitting briefs as well.
VIII. ADMINISTRATIVE REVIEWS
None
IX. MISCELLANEOUS
X. ADJOURNMENT
Planning Commission Minutes
July S, 2016
Page 4
Mike Oliver made a motion to adjourn, Tom Van Voorhees seconded. All
commissioners said "aye". Meeting adjourned at 7:00 p.m.
The foregoing minutes of the July 5, 2016 Planning Commission meeting were approved
by the Planning Commission at its meeting on the 6th day of, September2016.
Planning Commission Chair
MOBILITIE CONDITIONAL USE PERMIT
City of Central Point, Oregon
140 So.Third St., Central Point, Or 97502
541.664.3321 Fax 541.664.6384
www.ci.central-point.or.us
CENTRAL
POINT
MEMORANDUM
To: City of Central Point Planning Commission
From: Molly Bradley, Community Planner I
Subject: Mobilitie Telecommunications CUP (File No. 16019)
Date: August 30, 2016
Planning Department
Tom Humphrey,AICP,
Community Development Director
On August 2, 2016, the telecommunications company, Mobilitie LLC, submitted an application for
a Conditional Use Permit, and the public hearing was scheduled for September 6, 2016. This
application is to consider the construction of a new wooden utility pole located in the public right-
of-way, to be used for telephone -related services.
During review of the application, staff identified several issues relative to proposed pole design and
its location. Additional requested information and revised exhibits were received on August 29,
2016. Due to the timing of the revised submittals, it is recommended that the public hearing be
continued to allow staff the time necessary to evaluate and present the revised application to the
Planning Commission.
Recommendation: Open the public hearing to receive testimony from any interested parties, and
continue the public hearing to October 4, 2016 or a date and time specific, as agreed to by
applicant.
CENTRAL POINT HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN - 2016 UPDATE
City of Central Point, Oregon Planning Department
140 So.Third St., Central Point, Or 97502 CENTRAL Tom Humphrey, AICP,
541.664.3321 Fax 541.664.6364 POINT Community Development Director/
www d.central-point.or.us Assistant City Administrator
PLANNING DEPARTMENT MEMORANDUM
DATE: September 6, 2016
TO: Planning Commission
FROM: Stephanie Holtey, Community Planner II
SUBJECT: Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan - 2016 Update
Background
The City is in the process of completing the required 5 -year update to the Central Point
Hazard Mitigation Plan. One of the key objectives of this planning effort is to ensure that
the Hazard Mitigation Plan is prepared in accordance with Goal 7, which requires local
governments to adopt comprehensive plans to reduce the risk from natural hazards on
people and property. Since the Hazard Mitigation Plan is a technical document that
requires frequent updates, it will be incorporated into the Comprehensive Plan
Environmental Element by reference. During this presentation, staff will review and
facilitate a discussion of the existing plan and scope of the update.
Discussion
At this time, the City of Central Point has a stand-alone hazard mitigation plan ("Plan")
that was adopted in 2011. The Plan provides a framework for reducing the negative
impacts of future disaster events (i.e. floods, earthquakes severe weather, etc.) on the
community, and is necessary to maintain eligibility for 1) pre- and post -disaster federal
funding; and 2) flood insurance discounts through the Community Rating System.
The mission for the Plan is supported by six goal statements as presented below:
Mission Statement: Proactively facilitate and support community -wide policies,
practices, and programs that make Central Point more disaster resistant and disaster
resilient.
Goal 1: Protect life and safety.
Goal 2: Protect buildings and infrastructure.
Goal 3: Enhance emergency response capability, planning, and post -disaster
recovery.
Goal 4: Seek funding sources for mitigation actions
Goal 5: Increase public awareness of natural hazards and enhance education and
outreach efforts.
Goal 6: Incorporate mitigation planning into natural resources management and
land use planning.
Additionally, an action plan identifies specific activities and timelines designed to achieve
the mission and goal statements listed above. At this time, the Plan identifies specific
actions relative to floods, earthquakes, severe weather and general/multi-hazards. Based
on feedback from the Citizen's Advisory Committee (CAC) and the Hazard Mitigation
Advisory Committee (HMAC), the following hazards are being considered or re-
evaluated: drought, wildfire, air quality, volcanic eruption, and epidemics.
Action
The Planning Commission is encouraged to provide input on the existing Central Point
Hazard Mitigation Plan and the scope of the plan update process with an emphasis on the
following:
1. Have you received any informational materials or attended any workshops related
to natural hazards within the past 5 -years? If so, was the information provided
helpful? Do you have any suggestions for future education and outreach efforts
(i.e. topics, events, etc.)?
2. Are the Mission and Goal Statements presented in Chapter 4 still relevant (See
Attachment "AT What changes if any should be considered?
3. Are you concerned about any natural hazards that are not addressed in the current
plan?
4. Would you support integrating the Central Point Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan
into a multi -jurisdictional plan in partnership with Jackson County and other cities
in the region?
5. Do you have any additional comments, feedback, interests or concerns relative to
natural hazards, mitigation and this planning process?
Attachments
A. Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan Chapter 4
Web Link
The City's Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan is available online at:
http: / /www.centr,-,ilpointorqgon,govZfloodplain/ pa e hazard-miti ation- lan
ATTACHMENT "A"
4.0 MISSION STATEMENT, GOALS, OBJECTIVES AND ACTION
ITEMS
4.1 Overview
The overall purpose of the Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan is to reduce the
impacts of future natural disasters on Central Point. In other words, the purpose is
to make Central Point more disaster resistant and disaster resilient, by reducing
the vulnerability to disasters and enhancing the capability of the city and its
citizens to respond effectively to and recover quickly from future disasters.
Completely eliminating the risk of future disasters in Central Point is neither
technologically possible nor economically feasible. However, substantially
reducing the negative impacts of future disasters is achievable with the adoption of
this pragmatic Hazard Mitigation Plan and ongoing implementation of risk reducing
action items.
Incorporating risk reduction strategies and action items into Central Point's existing
programs and decision making processes will facilitate moving Central Point
toward a safer and more disaster resistant future. This mitigation plan provides the
framework and guidance for both short- and long-term proactive steps that can be
taken to:
• Protect life safety,
• Reduce property damage,
• Minimize economic losses and disruption, and
• Shorten the recovery period from future disasters.
In addition, the Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan meets the Federal
Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) mitigation planning requirements so
that Central Point remains eligible for pre- and post -disaster mitigation grant
funding.
The Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan is based on a four -step framework that is
designed to help focus attention and action on successful mitigation strategies:
Mission Statement, Goals, Objectives and Action Items.
• Mission Statement. The Mission Statement states the purpose and
defines the primary function of the Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan.
The Mission Statement is an action -oriented summary that answers the
question "Why develop a hazard mitigation plan?"
• Goals. Goals identify priorities and specify how Central Point intends to
work toward reducing the risks from natural and human -caused hazards.
The Goals represent the guiding principles toward which the community's
4-1
efforts are directed. Goals provide focus for the more specific issues,
recommendations and actions addressed in Objectives and Action Items.
• Objectives. Each Goal has Objectives which specify the directions,
methods, processes, or steps necessary to accomplish the plan's Goals.
Objectives then lead directly to specific Action Items.
• Action Items. Action items are specific well-defined activities or projects
that work to reduce risk. That is, the Action Items represent the steps
necessary to achieve the Mission Statement, Goals and Objectives.
4.2 Mission Statement
The mission of the Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan is to:
Proactively facilitate and support community -wide policies,
practices, and programs that make Central Point more disaster
resistant and disaster resilient.
The Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan documents Central Point's commitment
to promote sound public policies designed to protect citizens, critical facilities,
infrastructure, private property and the environment from natural hazards by
increasing public awareness; identifying resources for risk assessment, risk
reduction and loss reduction; and identifying specific activities to help make
Central Point more disaster resistant and disaster resilient.
4.3 Mitigation Plan Goals and Objectives
Mitigation plan goals and objectives guide the direction of future policies and
activities aimed at reducing risk and preventing loss from disaster events. The
goals and objectives listed here serve as guideposts and checklists as the city,
other agencies, businesses and individuals begin implementing mitigation action
items within Central Point.
Central Point's mitigation plan goals and objectives are based broadly, on and
consistent with, the goals established by the State of Oregon Hazard Mitigation
Plan. However, the specific priorities, emphasis and language are Central Point's.
These goals were developed with extensive input and priority setting by the
Central Point mitigation plan steering committee and the other stakeholders and
citizens of Central Point.
42
Goal 1: Protect Life Safety
Objectives:
A. Enhance life safety by minimizing the potential for deaths and
injuries in future disaster events.
B. Enhance life safety by improving public awareness of earthquakes
and other natural hazards posing life safety risk to the Central Point
community.
Goal 2: Protect Central Point Buildings and Infrastructure
Objectives:
A. Identify buildings and infrastructure at high risk from one or more
hazards addressed in the Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan.
B. Conduct risk assessments for critical buildings, facilities and
infrastructure at high risk to determine cost effective mitigation
actions to eliminate or reduce risk.
C. Implement mitigation measures for buildings, facilities and
infrastructure which pose an unacceptable level of risk.
D. Ensure that new buildings and infrastructure in Central Point are
adequately designed and located to minimize damages in future
disaster events.
Goal 3: Enhance Emergency Response Capability, Emergency Planning and
Post -Disaster Recovery
Objectives:
A. Ensure that critical facilities and critical infrastructure are capable of
withstanding disaster events with minimal damages and loss of
function.
B. Enhance emergency planning to facilitate effective response and
recovery from future disaster events.
C. Increase collaboration and coordination between Central Point,
nearby communities, utilities, businesses and citizens to ensure the
availability of adequate emergency and essential services for the
Central Point community during and after disaster events.
Goal 4: Seek Funding Sources for Mitigation Actions
Objectives:
A. Prioritize and fund action items with the specific objective of
maximizing mitigation, response and recovery resources.
4-3
B. Explore both public (local, state and federal) and private funding
sources for mitigation actions.
Goal 5: Increase Public Awareness of Natural Hazards and Enhance
Education and Outreach Efforts
Objectives:
A. Develop and implement education and outreach programs to
increase public awareness of the risks from natural hazards.
B. Provide information on resources, tools, partnership opportunities
and funding sources to assist the community in implementing
mitigation activities.
C. Develop and enhance partnerships with public agencies, non-profit
organizations, business, industry and the public by enhancing
communications and cooperation to encourage and facilitate
mitigation actions.
Goal 6: Incorporate Mitigation Planning into Natural Resource Management
and Land Use Planning
Objectives:
A. Balance natural resource management, land use planning and
natural hazard mitigation to protect life, property and the
environment.
B. Preserve, rehabilitate and restore natural systems to enhance
habitats and serve natural hazard mitigation functions.
4.4 Critical and Essential Facilities
Many of the high priority action items focus on facilities which are critical or
essential for Central Point. Critical facilities are facilities defined as those
necessary for emergency response and recovery activities, especially public safety
and hospitals. Essential utility services such as electric power, water and
wastewater are also extremely important to communities, especially after a
disaster. Such utilities are often characterized as "lifeline" utilities because they
are so important to a community for life safety (e.g., services to hospitals) and for
the economic recovery after a disaster.
Central Point has designated the following facilities as critical or essential:
City Buildings
City Hall
Police Station
Public Works Corporate Yard
4-4
Non -City owned Emergency Services Buildings
Fire District #3 Station
Oregon State Police Regional Office
Schools
There are five schools in Central Point. Mae Richardson Elementary is located on
West Pine Street at the corner of North Haskell Street near Daisy Creek and its
confluence with Griffin Creek. Central Point Elementary was built in 2004 and is
located between South 2nd and 0 Street. Jewett Elementary is an older school. It
is located at North 10th Street close to East Pine Street near Mingus Creek and
Interstate 5. This school has had problems with flooding during heavy rain storms
that cause the stream and storm drains to back up into classrooms. The most
recent event occurred during the spring 2009 rain storm. Fortunately damages
were limited to inundated carpets, which were easily cleaned before class was
back in session. Scenic Middle School is located on Scenic Avenue adjacent to
Griffin Creek. Crater High School is composed of several buildings that vary in
age. It is located between North 3`d Street and Highway 99 near Griffin Creek.
Two of the buildings closest to the creek are impacted by the mapped FEMA
floodplain.
Key Utility Elements
Water: The City's drinking water is provided by the Medford Water Commission,
which obtains water from Big Butte Springs and the Rogue River. The City
currently operates two storage reservoirs that hold 3 million gallons total, as well
as several miles of transmission mains and distribution lines. A new 3 million
gallon reservoir began construction in the summer 2011, thus increasing the city's
water storage. Upon completion, however, the one million gallon reservoir is
slated to be demolished, leaving a total storage capacity of 5 million gallons. The
water system also includes one pressure station, which is used to boost
distribution system pressure during peak demand hours. The system connects
with the Medford Water Commission master meters, which can provide water in
emergency situations; however, water supply from the Medford Water Commission
is currently limited to 6.8 million gallons per day by contract.
Wastewater: Rogue Valley Sewer Services provides sanitary sewer services to
the City of Central Point and other communities in the valley. Their system in
Central Point includes 58.4 miles of city sewer lines that were constructed
between 1949 to the present day. System critical facilities include 30 stream
crossings, 3 railroad crossings, 4 Interstate crossings and 6 siphons. According to
the District Engineer, there are no upgrades needed in preparation of natural
disasters. Wastewater is treated at a regional facility located in White City near
the banks of the Rogue River.
Stormwater: The City of Central Point stormwater system includes 45.8 miles of
storm drain lines, 581 catch basins, 2127 curb inlets, 714 storm manholes, 0
4-5
known underground injection control facilities, 2 engineered water quality facilities
(concrete sediment/trash and oil separator vaults) and 6 detention facilities.
Underground Injection control facilities are drained to the ground. Outfalls drain to
the nearest of seven streams and then to the Rogue River or to the north via Bear
Creek.
Other Utilities: Electric power (Pacific Power & Light), natural gas (Avista Natural
Gas) and telecommunications services (Qwest) within Central Point are provided
by investor-owned utilities: Although not owned by the city, these utilities are
critical for the functioning of the city.
Key Transportation System Elements
Major transportation routes within and to/from Central Point include:
• Interstate 5 runs generally north -south through Central Point. Interchange
no. 33 at East Pine Street provides primary access/egress for Central Point.
In addition the Seven Oaks interchange (no. 35) northwest of Central Point,
and the North Medford interchange (no. 37) provides access/egress along
Highway 99 into town from the north and south.
• The major arterials include: Highway 99/Front Street, East Pine Street, and
Biddle Road. Minor arterials include Hamrick Road, West Pine Street,
North 10th Street, Scenic Avenue, Freeman Road, Hanley Road, and Twin
Creeks Crossing.
4.5 Central Point Hazard Mitigation Plan Action Items
The Mission Statement, Goals and Objectives for Central Point, as outlined above,
are achieved via implementation of specific mitigation action items. Action items
may include refinement of policies, data collection to better characterize hazards
or risk, education, outreach or partnership -building activities, as well as specific
engineering or construction measures to reduce risk from one or more hazards to
specific buildings, facilities, or infrastructure within the Central Point community.
Action items identified and prioritized during the development of the Central Point
Hazard Mitigation Plan are summarized in the tables on the following pages.
Individual action items may address a single hazard (such as floods, or
earthquakes) or they may address two or more hazards concurrently. The first
group of action items is for multi -hazard items that address more than one hazard,
followed by groups of action items for each of the hazards considered in this plan,
which are addressed in more detail in Chapters 6 to 9.
Implementation of the action items presented in this plan are to be conducted by
the coordinating organizations in partnership with key stakeholders, such as
utilities, property owners, local government, etc. All of the action items presented
in this Hazard Mitigation Plan are realistic in terms of implementation capability;
however, ease of implementation, cost, and staff time availability vary between the
4-s
action items presented in table 4.1. For example, outreach and education efforts
may be easily implemented through existing natural resources, public works and
community development programs. Other items, such as the Griffin Creek Flood
Mitigation Project, Stormwater Master Plan development, and inventory projects
need to be implemented as funds and staff time become available. Timelines for
completion may need to be adapted to address these implementation challenges.
47
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17
POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS ELEMENT UPDATE FOR CENTRAL POINT
COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
STAFF REPORT
AGENDA ITEM: File No. 15029
A
CENTRAL
POINT
September 6, 2016
Planning Department
Tom Humphrey,AICP,
Community Development Director
Introduction and Discussion of Draft Population & Demographics Element for the Comprehensive Plan; Applicant: City
of Central Point.
STAFF SOURCE:
Tom Humphrey AICP, Community Development Director
BACKGROUND:
Population forecasts are a necessary comprehensive planning tool, they serve as the basis for identifying long-term
land and infrastructure needs. City staff introduced new PSU population forecasts to the Planning Commission last
November with an explanation of how these projections were derived and how they compare with the projections
from the Regional Plan. Population forecasts will now be updated under a continuing four-year cycle. For Jackson
County that cycle was completed in 2015 and is referred to as the Coordinated Population Forecast 2015 through
2065, Jackson County (PSUForecast). The forecast produced by PSU estimates 50 -year population growth, but also
provides shorter -term incremental forecasts (for example, 1-, 10- and 20 -year forecasts).
2010
17,736
17,169
(567)
2011
19,050
17,235
' (us)
2012
18,411
17,275
(1,136)
2013
18,778
17,315
(1,463)
2014
19,152
17,375
(1,777)
2015
19,541
18,329
(1,212)
2020
21,491
19,332
(2,159)
2025
23,483
20,484
(2,999)
2030
25,880
21,638
(4,242)
2035
28,469
22,680
(5,789)
2040
31,237
23,706
(7,531)
2050
34,155
25,416
(8,739)
2060
39,151
26,836
(12,315)
Source: Jackson County Comprehensive Plan, 2007 Population Element
Greater Bear Creek Valley Regional Plan, 2010
As a pre -requisite to updating the City's Housing Element it is
necessary for the City to amend its 2008 Population Element to
be consistent with PSU Forecast. The most significant change is
the difference between the 2008 population forecast (higher)
and the PSU Forecast (lower). The table to the left identifies the
broadening differences between each forecast from 2010 to
2060. The PSU forecast is what the City will use in the attached
Population & Demographic Element (Attachment A).
The structure of this Population Element will follow that of the
PSU Forecast, including reference to an extended forecast period
2015 through 2065. The forecast period for the first 20 -years
(2015-2035) will be the basis for the goals and policies of this
element. The extended forecast period (2036-2065) will be used
for informational purposes only, i.e. long-term in population
characteristics.
PSU Proposed Population Forecast,2015 The purpose of the Population Element is to identify the City of
Central Point's basic population characteristics such as age, sex, household size, etc., and includes projections of total
population over a twenty-year period. The importance of the Population Element cannot be over stated. From the
Population Element we can forecast future land need for housing and jobs, future need for infrastructure, as well as the
composition of the population and the needs of different age and sex cohorts. The Population Element feeds the Housing
and Economic Elements. As a land use planning document, the Population Element is constructed to comply with
Statewide Planning Goal 14 and administrative rules (OAR 660 Division 024-00301).
The Planning Commission is being asked to review Attachment A and to provide their feedback on Population Goals and
Policies based on the population characteristics identified in the document. Planning staff will return at subsequent
meetings with a more complete document and then initiate a Comprehensive Plan amendment for adoption.
Page 1 of 2
18
oe
Population
Demographics
Element
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan
Adopted Central Point City Council
Ordinance No.
DLCD Acknowledged
19
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2015-2035
TABLE 1. HISTORIC POPULATION GROWTH: 1900 - 2010
CITY OF CENTRAL POINT, JACKSON COUNTY, and STATE of OREGON
1900
322
-
13,698
413,536
1910
"61
439
136%
25,756
88%
672,765
1920
582
(179)
-24%
20,405
21%
783,339
1930
821
239
41%
32,918
61%
953,786
1940
906
85
10%
36,213
10%
1,039,684
1950
1,667
761
84%
58,510
62"x.
1521,141
1960
2,289
622
37%
73,962
26%
1,768,687
1970
4,004
1,715
75%
94,533
28%
2,091,335
1980
6,357
4353
59010
133,000
41%
2,633,156
1990
7,509
1,152
18%
146,389
10%
2,874,000
2000
13,310
5,801
77%
181,273
24%
3,421,399
2010
17,696
4,386
33%
?03.2ri6
1 Z-4
3,831,03
Saree: C.S Ceum (1900 - 2010)
90
........................................................................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Page 2
20
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2015-2035
average annual growth rate of 2.9%. By 2035 the City is expected to become the County's
second largest City, accounting for 9.8%4 of the County's total population.
2. HISTORICAL TRENDS
1.1 Population
The Town of Central Point was founded on February 26, 1889 and by 1890 had a population of
543. With the exception of the decade between 1910 and 1920 the City has continued to steadily
grow (Table 1) at a rate generally greater than the County and The State. Today the City of
Central Point is the third largest city in Jackson County. It is realistic to assume that over the
course of the next twenty years the City's population will continue to grow, requiring additional
land for housing, recreation, employment, and supporting infrastructure.
TABLE 1. HISTORIC POPULATION GROWTH: 1900 - 2010
CITY OF CENTRAL POINT, JACKSON COUNTY, and STATE of OREGON
1900
322
-
13,698
413,536
1910
761
439
136%
25,756
88%
672,765
1920
582
(179)
-24%
20,405
-21%
783,389
1930
821
239
41%
32,918
61%
953,786
1940
906
85
10%
36,213
LOB/o
1,089,684
1950
1,667
761
84%
58,510
62%
1,521,141
1960
2,289
622
37%
73,962
26%
1,768,687
1970
4,004
1,715
75%
94,533
280/9
2,091,385
1980
6,357
2,353
593'0
133,000
41%
2,633,156
1990
7,509
1,152
18%
146,389
1OB/o
2,874,000
2000
13,310
5,801
770/6
1SU73
24%
3,421,399
2010
17.736
4,426
33%
203.206
12%
3,831,073
Source: U.S. Cereus (1900 - 20 10)
1.2 Age Structure of the Population
Over the last twenty years the City's has grown older from a 2000 median age of 36 to a 2010
median age of 39.
1.3 Race and Ethnicity
1.4 Births
1.5 Deaths
1.6 Migration
1.7 Historical Trends in Components of Population Change
1.8 Housing and Households
3. ASSUMPTIONS FOR FUTURE POPULATION CHANGE
1.1 Assumptions for the County and Central Point
1.2 Supporting Information and Specific Assumptions
4 Coordinated Population Forecast Jackson County 2015-2065, Figure 16
Page 4
19%
12%
21
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2015-2035
The structure of this Element covers a twenty year planning period as required by Statewide Planning
Goals6and is the basis for determining the City's urban growth boundary needs to the year 2035.
1. Coordinated Population Forecast, 2015 through 2035, Jackson
On June 30, 2015 the Population Research Center, Portland State University (PRC) issued the
Coordinated Population Forecast 2015 through 2065 Jackson County, Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB)
and Area Outside UGBs (CPF). This publication was prepared in accordance with State law7 requiring
that PRC maintain and periodically update population forecasts for communities on a four (4) year cycle.
The CPF included individual annual population forecasts for each city within the County to the year 2065.
Population Policy 1 - Population Forecast. The population data presented in Table 2 and Table 3 is the
acknowledged population projection to be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive
Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the data
presented in Table 2 and Table 3. The City shall use data provided by Portland State University, the
U.S. Census Bureau to monitor and update this Population Element.
Table 2. Population Projection for City of Central Point and
Jackson Countv. 2015 - 2035
2015
211,275
18,329
8.7%
2020
222,583
19,332
8.7%
2025
234,561
20,484
8.7%
2030
245,963
21,638
8.8%
2035
255,840
22,680
8.9%
Source: Coordinated Population Forecast 2015 through 2065, Population Research Center, Portland State
University, June, 2015 Appendix C, Figure 22
rowth Characteristicshl addition to the projected population growth, the following represents a general
overview of the City's population characteristics as presented in the.
3.1. Growth Rate: Since 1980, the population of Jackson County has grown faster than the state.
During this period, the City of Central Point has exceeded the rate of growth of the County, and with
an average annual growth rate of 3.7%8, has been one of the fastest growing cities within the County.
During the coming planning periods it is expected that the City will continue to grow but at a slower
average annual rate of approximately 2.6%. During the same period, the County is expected to grow
at an average annual rate of 1.68°/x.
6 Oregon Revised Statute (ORS) 197.296
7 Oregon Revised Statute (ORS) 195.036
8 Jackson County Population Element, Table 5
Page 6
22
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2015-2035
A by-product of population growth is the formation of households, which translates to the need for
housing units. The U.S. Census allocates the population to one of two household types; family and non -
family. There is also a third household type, group quarters. Each of these categories has a distinct
physical footprint on a community's landscape.
By definition a household consists of all the people who occupy a housing unit'°, which is the basic unit
of residential land use planning. To a much lesser extent there is a small segment of the population that is
housed in group quarters.
There are two basic household characteristics that affect an area's land use planning: the average
household size and the household type. Since the early 1900s, these two household characteristics have
been gradually changing in response to changing socio-economic conditions. The following is a brief
overview of these characteristics as they relate to the City of Central Point.
4.3 Average Household Size
As illustrated in Figure 4 the average household size has been declining since 1960. For the City of
Central Point, the average household size has dropped from 3.42 in 1960, to 2.69 in 2000. It is
expected that during the term of the planning period (2035) that the average household size will
continue to decrease, but at a deamasing mte to 2.5 persons per household. T4ie-This is consistent
with the Regional Plan establishes an average household size for the City of 2.5.
Population Policy 2 -Average Household Size. For purposes of calculating household formation,
the City will use an average household size of 2.5 for lands within the urban growth boundary, and
the urban reserve areas. This figure will be the basis for determining the number of households
expected to be formed throughout the planning period. It shall be the responsibility of the City to
periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the average household size through data provided by
the PRC and the U.S. Census Bureau.
4.4. Household Type
Households are categorized as either
family or non -family households. In
addition to the decline in average
household size, the distribution of
households by type has been gradually
shifting from family to non -family
households. Add graphic
4.5. Family Households
Figure4. Historical Average Household Size for
Jackson County and Central Point 1950 -
2000, Projected U.S. to 2010
H 3.5 aa2 --
o Ccnfral Point
U 3.19
s 3.G8
h 3.05
0 JacksonCount`- 2,71 2.69
'.,,,2.62
d 2.5 — •` -a
s
i
- 2 -
e 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Family households are CensusYear
comprised of two or more sou_u.s'c—
people who are related by marriage, birth, or adoption. Family households are most
10 U.S. Census, Current Population Survey (CPS) - Definitions and Explanations
Page 8
23
City of Central Point
Comprehensive Plan, 2015-2035
Although of lesser significance there is a third population component that occupies what is referred to as
group quarters. Group quarters are defined as non -institutional living arrangements for groups not living
in conventional housing units or groups living in housing units containing ten or more unrelated people or
nine or more people unrelated to the person in charge. Examples of people in group quarters include a
person residing in a rooming house, in staff quarters at a hospital, or in a halfway house. Beginning in
1972 inmates of institutions have not been included in the Current Population Survey.
Historically, the City's group quarters population has represented X% of the total population.
Goal - To prepare and maintain population projections as the primary data source for developing and
implementing plans and programs for management of the City's growth.
Policy: The population forecasts presented in this element, and as periodically updated, shall
serve as the basis for the development of land use policy and land use decisions throughout the
planning period.
Population Policy 1- Population Forecast: The population data presented in Table 2 is the
acknowledged population projection to be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive
Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically, based on data provided by Portland State
University and the U.S. Census Bureau, to monitor and, if necessary, update the data presented in Table
2 as it relates to the City of Central Point.
Population Policy 2 -Average Household Size. For purposes of calculating household
formation, the City will use an average household size of 2.5. This figure will be the basis for
determining the number of households expected to be formed throughout the planning period. It
shall be the responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the
average household size through data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Population Policy 3 - Family Household Distribution. For purposes of calculating household formation,
the City will use 65% as the percentage of households that are family households. This figure shall be
used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the
City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the percentage offamily households through data
provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Population Policy 4 —Average Family Household Size. For purposes of calculating household
formation, the City will use 2.5 as the average household size for family households. This figure shall be
used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the responsibility of the
City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the average family household size through data
provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Population Policy S - Non -Family Household Distribution. For purposes of calculating household
formation, the City will use 35% as the percentage of households that are non family households. This
figure shall be used in maintaining and updating the City's Comprehensive Plan. It shall be the
responsibility of the City to periodically monitor and, if necessary, update the percentage offamily
households through data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Population Policy Fr Average Non -Family Household Size. For purposes of calculating non family
household formation, the City will use 1.85 the as the average household size for non family households.
Page 10
24